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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

DaUsername

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
910
Location
In that corner over there
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DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
The Meme
Chance: 0%
In the unfortunate event that we do end up getting another FE character, it'll be someone from Three Houses. Micaiah is not from that game, so there's that.
Want: 0%
Nope. No walls of text are gonna convince me that Smash needs another Fire Emblem character. If we do get a Nintendo newcomer, it should from a series that hasn't gotten a character in years like Kirby or Zelda, or maybe someone from a franchise that's never been playable like Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo, or even ARMS.

Captain Rainbow prediction: 2.1%
Noms: Ryu Hayabusa x5
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,990
The Meme
Chance: 0%
In the unfortunate event that we do end up getting another FE character, it'll be someone from Three Houses. Micaiah is not from that game, so there's that.
Want: 0%
Nope. No walls of text are gonna convince me that Smash needs another Fire Emblem character. If we do get a Nintendo newcomer, it should from a series that hasn't gotten a character in years like Kirby or Zelda, or maybe someone from a franchise that's never been playable like Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo, or even ARMS.

Captain Rainbow prediction: 2.1%
Noms: Ryu Hayabusa x5
Isn't about needing anyway.

I wonder if Golden Sun or Advance Wars will get revivals in Switch now that you mention it.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x155
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x152
Blaze the Cat x145
Ninten x120
9-Volt x120
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x120
Concept: Valve rep x120

150 - 101

Rundas x115
Prince of Persia x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: League of Legends rep x104

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Boss: Kracko x95
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x90
Concept: Any grass-type starter x86
Frogger x85
Glover x85
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
Sol Badguy x75
Riesz (Mana) x75
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Steve x65
Ryo Hazuki x60
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x60
Papyrus x56
Thrall (Warcraft) x55
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x55
Decidueye x53
[Rerate] Sora x51

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Geno x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x45
[Rerate] Quote x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
Akira Howard x30
[Rerate] Dante x27
Francis York Morgan x25

Under 25

Earthworm Jim x24
Sackboy x20
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x15
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x13
Chun-Li x11
Giygas x10
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x10
King Boo x10
Urbosa x9
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x7
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5

Arle Nadja and Valve rep beat Rundas in their tie. Rundas is forced to leave the top seven while the former two tie with Ninten and 9-Volt for fourth place.

Concept: League of Legends rep crosses 100 noms.

Sora unlocks over 50 noms.

Francis York Morgan reaches 25 noms.
 

Plank08

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
Messages
1,278
Location
Sackboy enthusiast
Abstaining on this character cause I don’t know who they are, any fire emblem character that’s not 3 houses seems impossible
Sackboy x 3
Freddy Fazbear X 2
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
254
Micaiah

Chance: 0%
Any FE character outside of Three Houses, Heroes and maybe SoV are out of luck on this one and Micaiah is unfortunately one of those characters. Even if she were to put under consideration, she still has to face other first-party characters for the slot in addition to the aforementioned FE series as well as third-parties. Plus, Sakurai even stated that there are a lot of FE characters in Smash so I don't think he's going to add another one in here, even if Micaiah herself is not a swordfighter.

Want: 80%
You know what? I actually like her. My knowledge of her isn't that great since I have not played Radiant Dawn but she is one of my favorite characters to use in FEH. I've always used her as my go-to armor and cavalry killer in the Arena. Other than that, I would love to see Micaiah in Smash since I would like a FE character that is not a swordfighter for once, but right now, it's not looking good for her.

Prediction:
Captain Rainbow - 1.65%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,536
Location
Drenthe, NL
Missaiah? Mikaiah?
Chance: 0%
There's simply no way she's gonna be picked over a Three Houses character. Radiant Dawn was a long time ago and relevance is important, especially when it comes to FE. Her supportbase isn't big enough for an exception to be made and there are probably way more people who prefer someone from TH anyway.


Want: 0.1%
That's my pity score cause atleast she's first-party. But if we have to get another Fire Emblem character I'd prefer it to be someone who atleast makes more sense buisness wise.


Captain Rainbow: 0.55%
First-parties after the Fighters pass x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Michael

Chance: 0.1%


Other than being a first party character with a spirit from an already represented game, it's hard to believe she'd be chosen over anyone from Three Houses. Micaiah just has too much going against her for me to believe she'd be in Smash as a fighter.

Want: 28%

I'm pretty much all for another Fire Emblem character in Smash mostly for the wrong reasons. I don't like the anti-Fire Emblem crowd in Smash, so I just want to see them seething if another Fire Emblem character makes it to DLC and cheer alongside the Fire Emblem fans that do want another character in. The main thing that's keeping the want rating fairly low is that I have no idea who Micaiah is because I've never played Radiant Dawn before, and Byleth is probably my most wanted Fire Emblem character in Smash and makes more sense to include a Three Houses character than her. She looks cool though, so I wouldn't be let down if she does somehow make the jump from Spirit to fighter.

-----------------------
Predictions:
Captain Rainbow Dash - 0.33%
-----------------------
Noms:

Francis York Morgan x5
 

MasterOfKnees

Space Pirate
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Messages
8,579
Location
Denmark
NNID
KneeMaster
Switch FC
SW-6310-1174-0352
Micaiah:

Chance: 0% - For obvious reasons.

Want: 60% - Would be pretty cool as a light magic user, and I'm game for anything from the Tellius games. I did have my problems with her from a storytelling standpoint, but I suppose that doesn't really matter in the context of Smash.
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,433
Micaiah

Abstain. Don't know anything about the character.

Noms: Geno x5

Predictions: Captain Rainbow - 0.5%
 

3BitSaurus

Smash Master
Joined
May 6, 2019
Messages
4,298
Location
Nowhere (no, not the Islands)
Micaiah
Chance: 0.1%
Basically, since Fire Emblem, along with Pokémon, suffers from Relevancy Curse, there's just no way that Micaiah would be picked over the most recent additions to the franchise. Even then, she has a Spirit and I don't see her of all Spirits being the one to receive a promotion.

Want: 0%
Admittedly, I don't know much about the character other than the fact that she's a mage, but even then, I don't think any amount of walls of text or playing Fire Emblem is going to convince me it needs a character as DLC. Honestly, I'd rather we stick to third parties if FE is our only first party option.

Predictions
Captain Rainbow: 1.53%

Nominations
League of Legends rep x 5
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,913
Location
winnipeg
Micaiah

Chance: 5%. Chances are, the most likely Fire Emblem rep would be from 3 Houses. That does not mean that she is impossible however.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to use, plus she would be different from most of the cast, so far at least. Plus we could get more soundtracks as well.

Noms: 2 for Boss: Kracko and 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon becomes playable

Prediction: Captain Rainbow: 1%
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Micaiah

Chance: 0%
It's unfortunate for her, but Fire Emblem already has many characters in Smash. It'd take considerable achievements to be considered, which Heroes and Three Houses have. Micaiah though isn't as popular as others, her game didn't perform as well and is already represented by Ike. She'd also need to bring something unique and fresh to Smash, and there are characters in Heroes or Three Houses who can do most of what she does.

There's so much stacked against her in a DLC period solely focused on third-party characters that Micaiah, a first-party character, simply has no chance whatsoever.

Want: 15%
I wouldn't actually mind her. I liked the Tellius games and while Micaiah isn't one of my favourite characters, she's still decent enough. An entirely magic focused character could also be a nice change. But there are so many other characters I'd want that she's just not up there with them.

Predictions: Captain Rainbow - 0.2%
... Who?

Nominations: Riesz x5
 

SKX31

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
3,462
Location
Sweden
Micaiah's here to [Dimitri, Claude and Edelgard enter] get forgotten about. Until today:

Chance: Yeaaah, we're getting into non-existent territory. 1 Part Per Million (treat it as a 0 % for all intents and purposes).

Unless her game gets a remake, I'm counting her out. The title joke hints at the reason why with the subtlety of a sledgehammer: Fire Emblem, as others have said, work on relevancy, and had she taken lets say Corrin's, Robin's or Lucina's spot I could've seen it. But as it stands, it'd take a miracle for Micaiah. Which is a shame. This counts for Smash 6 as well, since by such a point Fire Emblem's very likely to be post-3H.

Want: Abstain. Never played her game.

Noms: Concept: Valve rep x5
Predictions: Captain Rainbow 0,15 %
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x13
That's just flat-out not true. I have nominated this concept four times already x5, so it should at x20:

Nominating. . . oh bugger, now that Amaterasu has her day coming up, I need to think of something new. In that case. . . I'll just go with Concept: Any new Xenoblade character.
Nominating Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5.
Nominating Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5.
Nominating: Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5. And speaking of which. . .
Sorry to be this way about that again, but shouldn't the "Any new Xenoblade character" concept already be at 15? I'm pretty sure I already nominated it thrice.
Where are you even getting x13 from?
 
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Dee Dude

“Never ask Dee for anything again”
Joined
Oct 25, 2015
Messages
1,846
Location
Kidnapped by Sakurai.
3DS FC
0576-7674-5319
Micaiah

Chance: 0% Slow day huh? I’m gonna have to echo everyone and say that she virtually has no chance of happening at all, if there’s going to be another FE added at all, it’s gonna be a Three Houses rep added with the fact Micaiah doesn’t even any breakout popularity unlike the likes Lyn, another popular FE lord.

Relevancy doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things but in the case of Fire Emblem and Pokémon who get new installments and characters left and right, it does for them as they’ll always pick the most recent character hence with:ultrobin::ultlucina::ultgreninja::ultcorrin::ultincineroar:.

The only I can see her having even a scrap of possibility if either the Radiant games get remakes, she becomes a massively popular character in the FE fanbase or if Intelligent Systems starts pushing her prominence alongside the main Lords through various spin-offs like Heroes, Warriors and maybe even a few appearances in main titles.

Other then that, it’s Byleth or nothing.

Want: 20% Eh...I never played Radiant Dawn but I do like her design as not only is she cute but it’s in a very simple classic JRPG manner and not some over detailed/sexualized armor garbage you see in modern JRPG characters.

She could be an interesting and unique character since she lacks a sword but even then, I’d prefer Lyn or maybe even Hector for a classic FE/not shill pick.

If she gets a huge breakout in the FE series, then maybe I’ll consider her a legit contender one day, heck it’s surprising she’s even rated at all today.

Captain Rainbow prediction: 2%

Nomination: Geno X5
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,380
Abstain on Micaiah. I don't know anything about her. Plus, if we do get another Fire Emblem rep, I think we can all agree that it would be someone from Three Houses.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 

RealPokeFan11

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
1,243
Location
Center of the Zero Point
Switch FC
SW-0818-9732-6979
Abstaining on Micaiah. Getting kind of tired of rating this character. Besides, 3H is most likely to be chosen if we get another FE rep.

Captain Rainbow: 0.97%

Untitled Goose x5
 

Wunderwaft

Smash Master
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
3,498
Micaiah

Chance: 0%
Everyone else has already said everything I wanted to say. With first parties looking unlikely, Three Houses gaining support, and Sakurai admitting he was hesitant on adding Corrin due to the number of FE characters, Micaiah just seems very unlikely in the current DLC era of speculation.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played Radiant Dawn so I can't really comment on Micaiah, I'll reserve judgement when I play the game some day.


Prediction: Captain Rainbow 0.88%
Nomination: Steve x5
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Is it the Dawn Brigade?

Chance: 5%. Well it's better than Kratos. Still, I'd slap my chair and call it Bobby if Micaiah set foot into the battlefield with this prominent a role. Her relevance and fan demand... they don't look so hot. Oh, yeah, and Three Houses is a thing that's crushing series sales records, while Byleth and Edelgard have significant fan support already.

Want: 50%. I really don't care about Micaiah the character, and we already have RD Ike if I want Radiant Dawn representation. But you know what we don't have? Fire Emblem characters who don't mostly use swords. You know what would be really cool to see? Fire Emblem magic, because it's actually pretty unique in terms of effects. I'd rather a dark mage, but a light mage is fine too. Anima is too standard for my tastes. But, she doesn't use a sword, and that's good in my book.

Arle Nadja x 5. Captain Rainbow is from an unlocalized game and is extremely obscure and forgotten, with nowhere near as much of a fan push for localization as Roy or Lucas' games. 0.92%.
 
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DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,230
Micaiah, Magician of Light

Chance: 1% - In the event that we do somehow get another Fire Emblem character it more than likely won't be her. The team likely sees Ike as a rep for Path of Radiance, and even if Sakurai's asked to do another FE character it more than likely won't be her. They seem to want to concentrate on Modern Fire Emblem, we'd probably get a Three Houses character. Sakurai also stated that he was super hesitant about Corrin and only added Chrom for fanservice (and he already had in-game assets so he was probably very easy to make). So all of these things heavily hurt Micaiah's chances.

Want: 5% - If we do get another FE rep for some reason, then I'd rather see Lyn or Hector personally, since they've been requested for a long time. Though a pure mage would be an interesting idea for a character. Still, I know it's a tired argument to a lot of people but the series has enough reps as it is, so I'd rather see the character slot go to a series that needs it.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5


Predictions:
Captain Rainbow - 1.52%
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
That's just flat-out not true. I have nominated this concept four times already x5, so it should at x20:






Where are you even getting x13 from?
I'll look into it right away.

Edit: You didn't reach the sentence quotas for Kyo's and Kratos' day - you gave three sentences for Kratos, and four for Kyo but with one being flat-out wrong (you mixed Kyo with Ryo). Normally I let these pass unless they're corrected, but 3BitSaurus pointed out the mistake.

So that adds up to 10 noms plus 3 by BowserKing.

I'm really sorry about all the confusion and thanks for the patience.
 
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warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Micaiah
Chance: 3%
Micaiah is from a 12 year old(the older one is 14 years old) fire emblem game that already has a rep. The rep from that game was added in Brawl. There are newer fire emblem game with no reps (Echos/3 Houses). I'm feeling pretty good in saying she's not on the radar. Chrom would not have been added in if there wasn't a lot of fan demand for him, Micaiah does not have that.

Want: 0%
I have nothing against Micaiah at all. I'd just much rather have Edelgard or Celica.

Prediction: Captain Rainbow 1.2%

Noms: League of Legends rep x5
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
Radiant Dawn
Chance: 1%: Lyn and Three Houses. But we could get a Tellius remake.
Want:50%: She sounds kinda interesting. But Lyn and Black Knight are preferable.
Nominations:Blaze x5
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Oh yeah, ratings.

White hair, golden eyes - is this F!Robin?

Chance: 2%
Mpf. Others have already put it quite well. Fire Emblem in Smash just seems to follow the same trend as Pokémon, where all newcomers are from the most recent titles. Considering that. . . Micaiah isn't going to happen. Sure, Chrom was an exception to the rule I just mentioned, but he had massive fan demand behind, which, I'd say, came in no small part from the joke that was made around him not getting into Smash 4. Micaiah just doesn't have that.

Want: 70%
I could think of worse characters to join. I never played Radiant Dawn, but I do quite like her design and what I do know about her and her fighting style. She's good in my book.

Predicting Captain Rainbow to be around 2.222%.

Nominating Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5, which should get it to x25.
 
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BravadoMan_13

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
1,438
Location
Laugh Tale
NNID
ClassicRocker
Micaiah has her spotlight again here. Nice. Nice. I have rated her at least couple times in this thread so I will do it again.

Chance - 13%
- Sadly, she doesn't have much of a chance with Three Houses characters on the table. Of course there are Fire Emblem characters already. So there's that aspect. Here's hoping that first party characters get more of a chance down the road.

Want - 88%
- I remember Micaiah from the days of Brawl and how much more recognized she was. I made a custom roster over 10 years ago when I was in high school and I did put her on that roster of mine. I still have her on my roster. Despite haven't played a Fire Emblem game yet, she is at the top of my most wanted Fire Emblem character. She would stand out among the Fire Emblem cast. Troykv Troykv I enjoy your passion for wanting Micaiah in. Hopefully she is still remembered in within the Smash community.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Micaiah

Chance: 5%
As I said previously I think Micaiah only has a 5% chance because with FE:TH selling phenomenally and becoming the best selling Fire Emblem game IIRC that puts Micaiah and pretty much any Fire Emblem character from previous games at a massive disadvantage not to mention her already having a spirit and I doubt we'll get Spirit Upgrades frequently from here on out as I only expect/realistically think a very select few would be upgraded at most.

And lastly First parties in general are just very unlikely despite me wanting more it seems like all if not most of the DLC characters will be third party based on previous precedence. So those things plus more really put Micaiah in a bad spot chance wise though I would never count a character out unless they're not from a video game or already an Assist Trophy (for the most part) so she has a very small chance cause we've been wrong before.

Want: 40%
I'm very indifferent about Micaiah I wouldn't mind her and I don't think she would be a bad pick necessarily but I'm just not interested in her and if we were to get another Fire Emblem character I would vastly prefer a Three Houses character. Not a bad pick but I'm not very interested in her at all.

Predictions: Captain Rainbow 0.5%

Nominations: Concept: First Parties after the Fighters Pass x5
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Gold eyes White Marth

Chance: 0.001%

She's already a spirit. She's a first party character, where it's likely all of the characters will be from new 3rd party franchises. And of course a character from Three Houses is far more likely to get in.

Want: 1%

Guess I have to say this again like every other FE character. Please, no more Fire Emblem characters!

Captain Rainbow Prediction: 0.44%

Nominate Sol Badguy x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,783
Micaiah

Chance - 0.01% - I think it's been established that they typically will go the promotional route before anyone else when it comes to series like this. She's already a spirit, too, from a first party at that. She has almost no chance.

Want - 45% - She could be cool, but I really only want Anna as the next Fire Emblem character. I guess I can accepter her, but I would probably be disappointed.


Predictions

Captain Rainbow - 0.23% - Wow, that's old.


Nominations

Farmer X5
 

Icelerate

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 15, 2018
Messages
85
Micaiah

Chance - 2%: I don't think we'll get another FE character any time soon, and if we did, it would almost certainly be a Three Houses character, most likely Edelgard or Byleth. Micaiah did win CYL3 so she is quite popular and has a unique fighting style so it'd help differentiate the FE cast so I wouldn't count her out completely.

Want - 100%: I love her character a lot and can get too emotional when she's brought up. She's my favourite video game character so by default I want her more than any other character in Smash.
 

ProfPeanut

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
727
Micaiah

Chance: 18% -> 10% -> 3%
How many days has Micaiah gotten by now? I feel like I'm in a groundhog day loop of people trying to beg the question again and again and again that Radiant Dawn has somehow become relevant. Yes, Micaiah is still a completely inoffensive choice that had poor timing between Smash Bros releases, right next to the likes of Grovyle and Elma. Where's my fourth Seliph day for fairness' sake? Genealogy was snubbed because of Roy!

The difference between the last Micaiah day and this one? Well, she did win the third Choose Your Legend poll...alongside Camilla. With all the previous winners disqualified, of course. Oh, and a little title named Three Houses came out and became everyone's new favorite Fire Emblem game.

Micaiah's had it rough even before the Fighters Pass turned out to be all third-parties, and third parties aren't the biggest obstacle that older Fire Emblem candidates have to overcome anymore.

Want: 23% -> 33% -> 10%
Regrettably for Micaiah, I now have a personal bet in the race to squeeze just one more Fire Emblem candidate into Smash. She's not a bad protagonist by any means, but she also wasn't competing against Dimitri and Byleth until now.

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x5

Dad of Boy

Chance: 50%
He's a Sony-exclusive money maker that would be serve Sony advertising yet another attempt to make their own Smash Bros., true. He's also the biggest name they have and blatantly the first character Sakurai would ask for on that basis alone.

God of War is epic, and undeniably representative of what the Playstation is. There is no one bigger on that side of the console war - and thus, no one more attractive as a Smash candidate.

Want: 75%
Smash needs another Ganondorf, and Kratos is one of the best shots at recreating that archetype without cloning off of Captain Falcon. Also, Kratos is epic as all heck and happened to find his humanity too - the lack of which was a major shortcoming of his, back when his latest game was God of War 3.

It'd be as epic as Cloud and everyone would love it. Well, that's what I believe would happen, and I don't think that wouldn't be true.
 
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Playstation Guy 1000

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 22, 2019
Messages
359
Micaiah
Chance 10%:while Micaiah possible Micaiah isn't that likely due to having competition with other Fire Emblem characters like Lyn, Byleth,Edelgard and others.
Want 30%:Micaiah would be an alright character to join smash bros and I wouldn't a another mage character so yeah.
Nominations:Ryu Hayabusa rerate X5.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,439
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Day over.

Rate Captain Rainbow.

Predict Lara Croft.

----------

Some songs to get into the Captain Rainbow mood:

 

NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
Writing Team
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
5,510
Location
Australia
NNID
trpdm.wilton
Captain Rainbow
Double 0
Most first party characters sadly have questionable chances (not that I'm giving up hope!) But this guy is as obscure as they come. A Japan only flop. Let's not.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Lara Croft 14%
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,230
Captain Rainbow

Chance: 1% - Sakurai has specifically mentioned that a character being unreleased outside of Japan has prevented characters from being chosen in the past. This prevented Takamaru from getting in and nearly denied Lucas a spot. Furthermore, despite getting a relatively good Famitsu Score, the game is considered very obscure despite the good writing and only sold a bit over 20,000 copies. The game also was a 2008 release, a game that long ago doesn't have relevancy points either, and the Captain has little to no fan support to speak of. As novel as he would be, his chances are looking very slim.

Want: Abstain - I remember seeing a bit of news of the game in the past and finding the concept novel, but aside from that I never developed much of an opinion on the character.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5


Predictions:
Lara Croft: 17.43%
 
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FancySmash

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
1,136
Location
The elegant battlefield.
Captain Rainbow: The (obscure) game master

Chance: 0.01%
Yeah, it's very, very, very unlikely we'll be seeing him any time soon. Not only is he a one game wonder, but he also never got a release in territories outside Japan. Even then, his following doesn't even compare to Takamaru, who faces similar problems to the captain. All in all, it'd take a miracle for him to get into Smash.

Want: 50%
I know I've been pushing to rate him, but I honestly just did so to see everyone's thoughts. Fact of the matter is, I've never played it, I only know some things about it (such as Birdo and Little Mac's appearances in the game). If we ever do by any weird chance see Captain Rainbow in Smash though, I wouldn't really be against it. I'd be confused, but again, not against it.

Predict: Lara Croft
Decently iconic character. Could do well. 24.5%

Nominations:
Meowth x5 (if Pokeballs, like assist trophies, are up for rating now)
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Big Beautiful Joe

Chance: 2%
It's not looking too hot for good old Nick here, he's Japanese exclusive and obscure. I do think he's a strong candidate for a WTF pick but it's a very long shot and those tend to be unpredictable anyway so even if he gets in my rating is spot-on.

Want: 100%
I haven't played Captain Rainbow, but from what I've seen it's right up my alley. The Captain definitely lends himself to a moveset, the yo-yo is a very versatile weapon and he'd be visually interesting for sure. Probably won't happen but I'd be happy if it did.

Lara prediction: 39.18%
Noms: Prince of Persia x5

Also, since I probably won't do noms until late tomorrow: TODAY IS THE LAST DAY YOUR NOMS CAN CHANGE THE TOP SEVEN.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,536
Location
Drenthe, NL
Captain gay rights
Chance: 0%
If the character is region exclusive, they aren't getting in. If Takamaru can't join the roster because of that, then I doubt Rainbow can either. Besides that, only about 20K units sounds abysmal even for a JP exclusive. He might be considered a literal who even over there.


Want: 2%
I don't know who he is or what he even can do. I probably won't find out since I won't have easy acces to his game maybe ever. He's atleast first-party, tho there still exist way better options when it comes to that.


Lara: 31.26%
First parties after the Fighters pass x5
 
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