Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Deleted member]

I would probably freak if Spyro got in. That purple dragon rocks. But it won't happen.

Ridley
Chance: 5%

I really don't ever see it happening make all the Ridley is too big jokes you want. But if he hasn't been put in by now doubt he ever will.

Want m: 70%

The Metroid fans deserve their purple dragon and Seamus arch-nemesis in.

Nominating Decidueye X5

 

[Deleted member]

Ridley

Chance: 15%

Ridley is in a really odd spot. If the Smash team found a solution or workaround to deal with the size issue, then he would certainly get the nod. Unfortunately, I don't think that's the case, if only because the most likely way to get Ridley to work would be a Smash-exclusive redesign that might not fit the character.

Want: 100%

I love me some purple space dragons.

Nominations: Lyn x3, Dillon x2

Snake Prediction: 4.4%

 

[Fenriraga]

Oh boy, we're both literally and figuratively starting off with the big boys, huh?

Chance: 10%

Ridley is literally the closest thing we've had to Sakurai saying "no" to a popular fan request. Maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but the point stands. I just can't see it happening at this point. Never say never, but... Eh.

Want: 70%

I love Metroid, but I'm not a die hard fan of it. Regardless of that, I've played the vast majority of the games, and Ridley is the only character I can honestly say I'd want taking up that spot next to Samus. I'm not foaming at the mouth for him, but I honestly feel he's bar none the most "worthy" of all of Metroid's potential candidates.

Nominations:Geno x3, Lyn x2

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ridley

Chance: 1% - Ridley isn't like the other characters that Sakurai has changed his mind on in the past, unlike someone like Villager he has had to make a decision on Ridley at least twice before, and both times he's been denied. Ridley had to happen in Smash 4, that's why I was particularly passionate about him making it back then, it was the last time anyone could seriously argue that maybe he just hadn't been a priority, it was then or never. Now we know the truth behind his exclusion of course, and with how dead certain it was worded I doubt Sakurai will ever change his mind on the matter. Considering some people speculate that this next Smash has been in development pretty much since the DLC was finished for Smash 4, then the planning for this game probably even started shortly after Sakurai talked about Ridley being too big, which would obviously leave him dead in the waters from the start.

He gets a 1% because no inclusion is straight up impossible, but Ridley faces one of the steepest mountains to climb out of all potential characters. Sakurai clearly respects the character, but only as a boss.

Want: 100% - Ridley has been my most wanted character since forever, so it's just my luck that out of all of my initial wishes he's the only one who hasn't made it. He's my favorite Nintendo character, and by extension my favorite video game character. His short appearance in Melee was the reason I picked up Metroid to begin with, which has been my favorite video game franchise since. I started actively supporting his inclusion as a playable character in Smash 12 years ago, at times it has been an actual obsession, and it's still without a doubt my biggest video game related wish. It's a bit silly to get so caught up in a single potential character for a game I admit, but it's a result of wanting it for so long, the desire to see it happen only grows and grows. It's also become a representation of the many fantastic people I've communicated with over the years thanks to the community surrounding this one character, to see it finally happen would be something special because of that.

I doubt I'll be as active during speculation for this game as I was with Brawl and Smash 4 for the sole reason that I don't see Ridley happening, the primary thing I care about otherwise are all gameplay related, which we'll only know anything about post-release.

 

[FrozenRoy]

Ridley: 40%

Ridley's been joked about a lot for being "too big", but he is certainly doable. He's been rejected multiple times, but that doesn't mean he is out, especially since he HAS appeared in some capacity in both brawl and Smash 4. And it isn't like Sakurai hasn't changed his mind before: Villager, anyone? Still, while Ridley is iconic, the fact that Sakurai has expressed not wanting to put him in undeniably lowers his chances.

Perhaps moreso than that, I think Metroid Prime 4 will likely bring someone like Sylux or a new villain, or possibly them wanting to throw out someone like Dark Samus in, and this harms Ridley's chances.

Want: 35%

I mostly want him due to all the jokes about him getting in, but he could do some pretty cool stuff and we don't have a super fire/heavyweight flier type who is aerial focused (Charizard doesn't feel like he fits).

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x3
Marx x1
Micaiah x1

 

[ForwardArrow]

Ridley

10% Chance - I really doubt this new title will have many newcomers in the first place as I doubt this is really a new Smash game. On top of that Sakurai said he didn't think he'd ever add Ridley, but that being said, its not like people haven't been quite vocal about wanting him. I could ever see Nintendo decide to at least give it a shot given the backlash, but it probably wasn't nearly enough for them to actually care.

100% Want - God I just want a second Metroid rep that's not Samus in a fanservice outfit Metroid deserves better than this.

 

[Nonno Umby]

Ridley

Chance: 10%
Considering Sakurai's opinion on the character, and that not that much time as passed since that statement I don't see him being added.

Want: 30%
I'm a Metroid fan, but there other characters I would add before Ridley, like Sylux.



I missed the King K. Rool vote, but I want to say nonetheless that I think he is quite likely and that I really want him in.

Nominations: 5x Elma (Xenoblade X)

 

[PushDustIn]

Wait...

Push, you actually think Ridley is more likely than not?

Curious.

I know you've stated your reasoning but...

Would you mind going into more detail?

Ballot.
It's the same reason I think King K. Rool is more likely than not.

During the last ballot, it said that the data would be used for last games.

Inklings are [arguably] the most popular Nintendo character [not in Smash] and were also highly requested [before their reveal]. Sakurai said he wanted to add Geno in as a character before, and Geno is a one-shot character.

I definitely know that Ridley’s a much-anticipated name for fans, but if we made Ridley as a fighter, it wouldn’t be Ridley any longer. It’d have to be shrunk down, or its wings reduced in size, or be unable to fly around freely. Providing accurate portrayals of characters is something I want to pay ample attention to. If I don’t stick to that thought, then we’d have to lower the quality or break the balance of the game.” --Source (Gaming)

He's said this, but at the same time we know he was at least considered for Brawl and Smash for. He keeps coming back to him despite rejecting him.

Other characters that he came back to after rejecting them?

Pac-Man, Mii Fighters and Villager.

Like I said in the first post IF Bandai Namco is making MP 4, and Smash Switch, then I could see a redesign that would allow Ridley to be in Smash. Or maybe Sakurai will have an epiphany on how to work Ridley in Smash.

There's no denying a lot of fans want to see Ridley in Smash (look at all those mods).

 

[Megaban]

Huh, Ridley this time.

Chance -22%
Maybe I'm overrating it a lot, but Sakurai CAN change his mind. Look at Villager, he legit said he doesn't fit in a Smash game after Brawl. And we got him in Sm4sh. Problem with Ridley is not his size (Bowser can be huge and TP Ganon is actually like twice Link's size) but the way he's built, aka complexity. It might be hard to make him not a huge hurtbox with that wings or very awkward looking. It's doable tho. Ridely did stand on 2 and wasn't SUPER huge (In Metroid Prime I think?) so it' cdoable. And Ridley has pretty nie popular demand.

Want -55%
He'd be a cool addition for sure. He's not high up on my list or anything like K Rool, but again, we need villains and Ridley is a classic. We can't forget that. So yeah, I'd like to see how it turns out.

Nominations: Lana x5.

Prediction: Snake-15%

Also the guy with Sonia Strumm avatar has great tastes.

 

[Nonno Umby]

Ballot.
It's the same reason I think King K. Rool is more likely than not.

During the last ballot, it said that the data would be used for last games.

Inklings are the most popular Nintendo character and were also highly requested. Sakurai said he wanted to add Geno in as a character before, and Geno is a one-shot character.



He's said this, but at the same time we know he was at least considered for Brawl and Smash for. He keeps coming back to him despite rejecting him.

Other characters that he came back to after rejecting them?

Pac-Man, Mii Fighters and Villager.

Like I said in the first post IF Bandai Namco is making MP 4, and Smash Switch, then I could see a redesign that would allow Ridley to be in Smash. Or maybe Sakurai will have an epiphany on how to work Ridley in Smash.

There's no denying a lot of fans want to see Ridley in Smash (look at all those mods).

While he is request, I don't think that Metroid Prime 4 will help Ridley on any case. Smash Switch started its development back in 2016, and probably around that time the roster was decided. I really doubt that Metroid Prime 4 was even a thing at that time, or that they had a finalised Ridley that could work in Smash.

Unless Sakurai has an epiphany (which is unlikely considering how little time has passed since his statement about Ridley's essence and the start of Smash 6 development).

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Inklings are the most popular Nintendo character

Wait where is this coming from?

 

[PushDustIn]

Wait where is this coming from?

I updated my post to be more clear.

Essentially you talk to any kid in Japan and they love Splatoon. Inklings are the breakout Nintendo character which is why they have so many different amiibo of them.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

It's been a while, McRibley.

Chance: 15%
It's not impossible that Sakurai changed his mind on shrinking Ridley down despite not wanting to beforehand since he deemed a smaller Ridley unfitting. That said, if he really wanted to bring Ridley down to size, I'd imagine he would have done so by now, considering he's clearly aware of the space dragon's popularity, so I guess Sakurai's probably going to make sure Ridley stays big.

Want: 100%
Another one that ranks high on my want list.

Solid Snivy- er, Snake, prediction: 10%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[CrowGoesCaw]

Ridley


Chance: 40%

There are a lot of factors that could influence Ridley's chances, but I think it all pretty much comes down to this:


As much as Sakurai trolls fans, he does like to give fans what they want and he knows there is a lot of people who want Ridley as a fighter. So he's going to consider how to make Ridley playable. Sakurai and his team will try to come up with something, but if Sakurai isn't happy with the result, he won't add him to the roster.


In the end it all depends on if Sakurai can come up with something he's happy with. That's how I see it playing out.



Want: 100%

Ridley is my most wanted newcomer since brawl, as I'm a massive Metroid fan. Ridley boss battles are some of my favourites of the Metroid games, and I'm also just a fan of dragons in general. If he suddenly gets a reveal trailer, I'd probably die of hype and then be a sad ghost haunting the living who actually get to play as Ridley. Stupid living people.

 

[-crump-]

Ridley

Chance: 30%
I don’t think Ridley is completely hopeless. If Sakurai really wanted to scale him down, he probably could, and of course he knows how popular the character is. Metroid Prime 4 is in the works and thus this is the perfect chance to include a new rep from the franchise. However, he does have a lot of work that would need to be done to make him look “natural”, and Sakurai has expressed disinterest in adding him in the past. Buuuuuuut, that didn’t stop Villager, so...

Want: 50%
I don’t love the character, and I haven’t really played a whole lot of Metroid (Prime Triolgy has been in my backlog for two years now). However, he could be an interesting addition, new villains are cool, and come on, his fans could use a bone thrown to them.

Snake Predictions: Chance: 6%, Want 70%

Nominations: Hector x4, Shovel Knight x1

 

[Xhampi]

Ridley :
Chance : 5%
He has the moveset, the popularity, the relevence, is the #2 of the Metroid franchise and has been in every smash minus 3DS, but at the end of the day Sakurai will have to change his mind for him to happen and that's not something I'm willing to bet on.

Want : 100%
Come on Ridley you just broke your own curse in your home series, time to see if you can break this one as well.

Snake Prediction : 18 %

Nomination : Marx (kirby series) X 5

 

[fogbadge]

ridley you say? id say

chances: 20% sakurai apparently did say the too big thing as a thing but perhaps his overwhelming support will get him in

want: 10% nah i do think we should have a metroid character that isnt samus but im not a fan of ridley

nominate: gooey, tempo, hana/sakura samurai, mipha, daruk

 

[Quetzal77]

Ridley

Chance: 40%
He's a meme and that's a significant boost to his chances. Sakurai has to know he's one of the most wanted and it wouldn't be the first time he changed his mind. He just appeared in Samus Returns, so is still relevant. It all depends on the MP4 cast and how far down the list of priorities Metroid is. The only thing keeping him away is Sakurai being stubborn.

Want: 75%
I've only played a few Metroid games, but he would definitely be unique and a good representative for the series.

Snake prediction: 60%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Elma x2

 

[Schnee117]

Ridley

Chance: 0.1%

It's extremely easy to make a moveset for him, he could borrow a lot from Gargos even. But Sakurai's said his piece about Ridley. We're gonna need a more Smash friendly design for Ridley and perhaps a change of heart if he's to get in.

Want: 100%

Prediction for Snake: 40%

Nominations:
Doomguy x 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT~Phantom

How often does the nominations page get updated with new ones people suggest?

I will update them later today, I am stuck on my phone rn instead of my computer for the time being so I am a bit slow rn.

 

[slambros]

Nominations:

Mii Fighters
New Mii Fighter types (concept)
Sonic
Tails
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes)

Do remember to specify how many nominations you are giving each character. Of course, it'd be x1 beside each character because of the amount. I'm not sure if you knew or not, but it'd be good to add x1 to each nomination to make sure the moderator isn't left confused.

Ridley

Chance: 0%
I agree with Sakurai on this one to be honest. I just don't think the character would be a good fit.

Want: 0%
I would be happy for the fans, but I guess the character's just not for me. Granted, I haven't played much Metroid... I'm currently working my way through Samus Returns as much as college allows it, but besides that, I've only played a little bit of Prime and a little bit of Fusion. So for me, the personal connection isn't there, and I'm inclined to see Ridley's potential inclusion the way Sakurai sees it.

Nominations:
Dillon x3
Excitebike x2

 

[skylanders fan]

Ridley chance is like 10% I would love him but I just don't think we will see him

want is 89% I would love to see them add a new Metroid character into Smash and another Villian and this would do both.

Nominating
Mewtwo x3
Crash Bandicoot x2

 

[ShinyRegice]

Ridley chances: 2.5%
Sakurai's the chief. Nuff said. I'm still giving a non-zero probability in the off chance that Sakurai revisits the idea, but even then making workable what you perceive as unworkable is probably going to get less priority than other characters.

Ridley want: 45%
Ridley kinda feels like he has a unique body shape which could workably be turned into a playable moveset, but at the same time the size scale change would make it somewhat awkward, especially after (spoiler of a Metroid game)

Spoiler

the fight in Samus Returns.

I feel like I can sympathize with both supporters and detractors.

Snake prediction: 22.14%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x3
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x2

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Hate to be a bother TCT~Phantom , but it doesn't seem like my nominations for Eggman were counted for yesterday since it's not on the front page. Not sure if you accidentally left them out or if I just can't find them.

 

[Deleted member]

It also seems that my nominations for Waluigi from yesterday weren't changed to Decidueye.

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Ridley Chances: 5%
A lot has been said already, but the big purple space dragon just hasn't been in a good spot in the eyes of the dev team. There is a chance it can change due to the increased power of the switch. Which is why I keep him above 0.

Ridley Want: 40%
Ridley is one of those characters I feel has the notoriety to really be great in Smash. One of my favorite villains in the metroid series means he'll be great. Yet, he's low in want due to accepting it may not happen and even then I'm expecting more from other characters.

Snake Prediction: 20%

Nominating
Corrin 3x
Crash 2x

 

[TumblrFamous]

Ridley Prediction: 15%
Sakurai has outright talked about Ridley and therefore knows the immense popularity. However, he has defended his claims that he is too big to put in Smash and wants to stay true to the character. Unless Sakurai has some stroke of genius and figures out how to put him in, we probably won't see him again.

Ridley Want: 50%
He's definitely not my most wanted character, but he would be a super cool edition to the game. And plus I'd love to see all those reaction videos of people losing their absolute s*** over it.

Snake Prediction: 19.5%

Nominations:
Lucas x5

 

[Pureownege75]

Ridley Chances: 50%
Ridley is in such a bizzare situation. At one point he was by far the most requested character for Smash, but after requests being beaten down by Sakurai time and time again his popularity has slumped. But he still did fairly well in the ballot, and Metroid just had a new game with another on the horizon. It could be the time. Sakurai has changed his mind on characters plenty of times so just because he has said no before doesn't automatically count him out.

Want: 95%
Back in the Smash 4 speculation days, I kinda just wanted him in for the meme. I had never played a Metroid game before, but I figured he'd be good representation for an underrepped franchise and the "too big" jokes were funny. Now I've played pretty much every Metroid game except Other M, Prime Hunters, and 2 and I genuinely want him in now. Having a character that towers even over Bowser, yet still maintains high mobility (especially in the air) would be a dope idea. He's a legend among the Smash Speculation community and deserves to be in.

Nominations:
Labo Based Character x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Ridley Chances- 5%. Sakurai's rejected him countless times

Ridley Wants- 60%. I've never played Metroid and I couldn't care less about him, but it would calm the Smash Fanbase.

Nominations:

Kamek 2x
Marx 2x
Mimikyu 1x

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I have not updated the post for nominations, but I will do so when today ends. Sorry for any inconvenience. I am stuck on my phone since I have no internet at my house rn but I might go to a mates house to get internet and sort things out. Note that noms are still being counted and the post should be fixed by later today.


Tdlr noms are counted, will update when I get access to my computer internet.

 

[Questionmark222]

Ridley, huh?

Chance: 35%
I know, that's bold. I know, Sakurai considered and rejected Ridley twice.
But his words are never set in stone. He dismissed Villager, Miis and Pac-Man in Brawl, but made them work in Sm4sh. And I know that Sakurai said that having Ridley in Smash would go against his canon appearance (with the size and all that), but he said the same thing about Animal Crossing and Miis being "too peaceful" and not suited for Smash.

Want: 75%
The main reason I want Ridley may seem stupid, but I would like it if he finally got in so that we can calm down and move on to other characters. Plus I'm all in for more villains, and his size could make him stand out in his playstyle, as well as being a reverse Little Mac.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Ridley:
Chance: 2.5% - I really don't see Sakurai changing his mind on Ridley. We got a legitimate reason as to why he isn't in.
Want: 5% - I never got why Ridley was so popular. Besides I can play him in Crusade anyway.

Prediction: Snake
Chance: 7.84%
Want: 78.93%

Nominations
Sora x5

 

[Deleted member]

Do remember to specify how many nominations you are giving each character. Of course, it'd be x1 beside each character because of the amount. I'm not sure if you knew or not, but it'd be good to add x1 to each nomination to make sure the moderator isn't left confused.

I actually did not know this. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[Ura]

Mr. Purple Dragon Dude

Chance: 5%

I could be underestimating his chances but all indications point to him not being included. Unless Sakurai changed his mind, Ridley is SoL.

Want: 50%

Indifferent either way.

Prediction: Snake

Chance: 35%
Want: 90%

Nomination

Andy X 5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Ridley!
Chance- 35%
While he has famously been pretty much the most requested character for every entry, he has been shot down each time just as famously. I currently believe that this is a new Smash Bros game, but if it turns out to be a port, he may just be done for. His popularity in the Ballot, despite being a boss already, was likely phenomenal as always, but Sakurai may still hold his beliefs on the character. But hey, as people have already mentioned- Pac man, Villager and Miis, so maybe things will brighten up for the character. Maybe he could be shrunk, or maybe his largeness could be his gimmick that makes him a unique fighter (We've had tag team characters, a character in a vehicle, a character that changes his stats mid battle, and a character that throws other characters with their own unique stats, maybe a character that is giant doesn't seem too out of the blue?)

Want- 60%
I love Metroid and I love the character, but I have plenty other characters I'd like to see over him. But I would be quite happy to see him! And if they truly want to take the internet by storm, Ridley would cause the most hype, shock, tears of joy and confusion all at once. That excitement is one of my favorite parts of Smash Bros. Well, besides playing the actual game.

Snake-55%

Banjo & Kazooie X 3
Doomguy X 1
Crash X 1

 

[Nimbostratus]

Ridley

Chance - 4%
Sakurai seems pretty set on Team "Too Big." I know he's changed his mind before, but I can't see this as likely.
Want- 100%
For the fans. He's certainly deserving. Guess I've gotten too lazy over the last four years to write up long, essentially unchanged opinions.

Snake Predictions- 40%
I forgot that chances tend to be rated much higher than what I usually give. Not sure there's any character that I would give above a 60/70% chance other than the Inklings, but... well, that already happened, so there goes my chance for optimism.

Nominations:
Dillon x4
Andy x1

 

[bksbestbwoy]

Ridley

Chance - 15%

Ridley has extremely low chances. Sakurai has remained hardline on how he feels the character is best implemented in Smash and despite all reasoning, public desire and circumstance, he has retained this stance throughout the series' lifespan to date. At the same time, we are in an era of Smash even more wild than what was once considered normal. I feel like the lowest chance you can give anything nowadays is still higher than an outright no. That said, I don't see it still.

Want - 65%

The want is mostly tempered by Sakurai's stances to be honest. I'd love to see how he'd handle designing a playable Ridley and the Metroid franchise, as isolationist as it is, would really benefit from having as recognizable a figure as his in the playable roster. That said, I think I want him more for the sake of the fan base than I do want him playable myself.

Nominations:

Takamaru x3
Lyn x2

 

[Zerp]

Ridley
Chances: 20%? Maybe? I don't know what to think.
If Sakurai's the director (We know he's been working on the game but I don't think we know he's the director yet, he could have a PR role or be an adviser) then Ridley is almost certainly not happening. If Sakurai's not director then it's a complete toss-up, and everything depends on whether or not the new director thinks Ridley can work. He becomes borderline impossible or an absolute shoo-in depending on the mentality of whoever is in charge.

Want: 79%
I don't care for Ridley personally but I'd like to see his fans happy, 1% lower than K. Rool because I don't like the possibility of aerial command grabs and massive disjoint.

Predictions: Snake 29%
Nominations: Dark Matter (Kirby) x 5

 

[a smart guy]

Ridley
Chance: 12% The big guy has always been a thorn-y subject for speculators. On the one hand, he's beloved by many people, and is one of the few characters that could represent Metroid besides Samus. On the other hand, his proportions are wonky, which has led to Sakurai to deny his inclusion several times. I don't see the dragon getting in, but the fan demand might save him.
Want: 10% This is another character I don't have much of a connection to. I've only played Metroid Prime 3, and he appeared in the game as a boss a couple of times. It didn't seem like he had much of a personality, other than tenacity, but he had a cool design. The want is mostly so that the Ridley true believers will finally be happy.

Predictions: Snake 38%
Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[Morbi]

I missed this game quite a bit. Sad to see I already missed the first day, hopefully I catch the rest.

Ridley
Chance: 25%
The inherent issue is I do not fully comprehend why he was difficult to develop. My assumption is that with newer technology, the potential is at least vaguely there. It does really depend on what they do for Metroid Prime 4. If Ridley is the main antagonist, the time would never be better. If not, perhaps another more fitting Metroid candidate will reveal themselves. There is just no denying that he is the obvious choice to represent Metroid and his popularity is among the highest. Beyond that, there is the surprise aspect. No one really expects him this time around.

Want: 100%
He might literally be the only missing Nintendo all-star. A lot of people argue King.K. Rool; however, relative to their respective franchises, Ridley is a much bigger oversight. Pun intended.