Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

Another Battle Royale
Chance:0%: Yeah, Tetris is popular. But there is no move set potential. Also what would be the stage?
Want:10%: I do like Tetris. I don’t think it should be in Smash though, especially since I prefer Puyo Puyo anyways (that Dr. Eggman’s Mean Bean Machine boss fight in Sonic Mania can be thanked for that.)
Nathan Drake prediction: 0.5%: I honestly think he is impossible, but some people will give him ratings above zero.
Nominations: Specter Knight x5 Blaze the Cat x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Steve's mom

Double zeroes

I'm sorry, but what the actual ****? I know we already have Piranha Plant, but this is still too much. Tetrominoes are not characters, they're four blocks arranged in different orders. They have no personality. They have no abilities. You can't make one walk, you can't make one punch, you can't make one grab ledges or climb ladders or do literally ****ing anything. It would have to be a moveset made from scratch for the most uninspired idea of a fighter possible. What's next? A table as a playable character?

Beyond the absolute ridiculousness of the idea, it's also a rights cluster****. The Tetris Company is notoriously difficult to deal with, and has a draconian set of guidelines (for example, each Tetromino has to be its specific color, so whatever this fighter would be, they couldn't have palette swaps). Beyond that, and while I don't know if this would affect Smash, Ubisoft has the exclusive contract for making Tetris games (Tetris 99 only happened because of a loophole, I think because it's multiplayer only).

So yeah, not a fan. Would love a Tetris stage though.

Nathan Drake prediction: 2.54%

Noms: uh

 

[GoodGrief741]

Noms!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Metal Sonic pre-Tetromino

Amy Rose x115
Monokuma x115
[Rerate] Erdrick x107
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x105
Creeper x105
Morrigan Aensland x105
Concept: Microsoft Rep x102

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x101

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x100
Spyro x91
Crono x90
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x90
Boss: Kracko x87
Kamek x87
Frogger x85
Kyle Hyde x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
Frisk x75
9-Volt x74
Concept: Square Enix rep x70
Concept: Valve rep x70
Jin Kazama x65
Saber (Fate) x65
Ninten x64
Adeleine (Kirby) x58
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

X (Mega Man) x47
Velvet Crowe x45
Decidueye x43
Rundas x40
[Rerate] 2B x35
Ellie (The Last of Us) x35
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: DLC challenges x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Heavy (Team Fortress) x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Specter Knight x25
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x25

Under 25

Earthworm Jim x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
[Rerate] Steve? x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x15
Gex x12
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
Black Shadow x10
King Boo x10
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x9
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x8
Toon Zelda x8
Marx (Kirby) x8
Magolor x6
Mike Jones x6
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x6
Qbby x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1

Monokuma is now tied with Amy Rose for first place.

Concept: Valve rep cranks past 50 noms.

Specter Knight and Cadence reach 25 noms.

Also, I've been hearing that 2B and Sora have both been disconfirmed. Do I take them off the noms list or does somebody have an objection?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Owned by whom
Chance: 0.1%
Now we all know how iconic and succesfull Tetris, with it being the best selling game franchise of all time up untill very recently, however this was the case for a very long time and all the Smash representation it has had so far are two songs, making it a good example that not every multi-million game franchise has to have major Smash representation. If we really got a Tetris themed fighter pack, it would really give me the feeling of ''Wait, why just now''
And yeah, I doubt even Sakurai could make a moveset for things as basic as Tetrominos. I know there exist those moveset artworks showing how a Tetris fighter can work but it's highly unlikely Sakurai has seen those or that he even agrees with them.

Want: 15%
Now we do really need that Tetris stage, don't get me wrong, but they could easily seperate that from the fighters pass. I like me some Tetris but Piranha Plant is about the wackiest I like my Smash fighters to get. It all depends on the execution tho. I'd prefer it to have some sort of a face.

Nathan Drake: 0.65% (tho it should be even lower)
Bandana Dee x5
Qbby x5
Gene (God Hand) x50

 

[Sari]

Also, I've been hearing that 2B and Sora have both been disconfirmed. Do I take them off the noms list or does somebody have an objection?

I think they should stay on unless the creators of their games goes out of their way to say that they aren't happening like with Dante and Hat Kid.

In regards to that Sora tweet where he was supposedly deconfirmed, Shinji Hashimoto could've just been under NDA since I don't see why he'd just blatantly reveal a secret character when asked by a fan about it. Even then we don't know for sure if he was even asked the question.

Just curious where was 2B disconfirmed?

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think they should stay on unless the creators of their games goes out of their way to say that they aren't happening like with Dante and Hat Kid.

In regards to that Sora tweet where he was supposedly deconfirmed, Shinji Hashimoto could've just been under NDA since I don't see why he'd just blatantly reveal a secret character when asked by a fan about it. Even then we don't know for sure if he was even asked the question.

Just curious where was 2B disconfirmed?

https://smashboards.com/threads/2b-automatizes.452887/page-6

 

[chocolatejr9]

Tetromino

Chance: 0%
I feel like this is only considered because GameXplain made a joke about it. That being said, if anyone thinks it has a chance, can you tell me why? I get that Tetris is iconic, but does it have the merits to be a playable character?
Want: 0%
Yep, here's another game on the list of games that I have no interest in and that I'm considered weird because of that. Essentially, I'm not a big fan of the "drop until it gets to where you want it to go" type of games. As a result, I have no personal attachment to Tetris and, by extension, the Tetronimos.

Nominations: Monokuma x5 (I'm in the home stretch now. )

 

[Sari]

https://smashboards.com/threads/2b-automatizes.452887/page-6

Ouch yeah that does seem more of a solid deconfirmation.

 

[TheCJBrine]

TetrominO's Breakfast Cereal:

Chance: 15% - With how strict the Tetris company is, I'm not sure Tetris has much of a chance getting in. We at least have music, but even with a stage I don't know how likely it'd be. A stage would be pretty cool, though; plus, it is pretty successful and popular, so maybe they'll at least try to get something more this time, but eh. I think a Tetromino could work as a character, somehow, though it may have a lot of basic attacks if not fists and whatever being made out of pixels or something; I think it'd be cool if the character was a stick figure made out of the 5 blocks.

Want: 21% - While I would like a Tetris stage, I don't really care that much to be honest. I wouldn't mind a character, either, and would probably even love it, but it's not in my top 10; another Tetris remix would be very cool, though, like a more "digital"-sounding mix and not just the orchestrated ones we have now.

Nominations:

Creeper x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Tetrominos

Chance - 0% - ...how can this piece do anything. This seems out their, even for Sakurai. He'd really have to stretch, more than I'm used to thinking, and knowing the Tetris company and how strict they can be makes me think this isn't possible in the slightest.

Want - 20% - A stage would be cool. A character just seems unnecessary, though.

Prediction

Nathan Drake - 0.13% - I don't think he even has a Nintendo Appearance.

Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Sigh

Chance: 0%

Guys, memes like this aren't all that funny. It just wastes a day. Tetromino has a miniscule movement potential. Honestly, how could it work as a fighter? That's right, it can't. All it does is rotate, and fall, and nothing more. No hidden backstory, no attack animations, nothing. A Tetris Stage would have been nice, but it's too late to reminisce. Now, we should get over our funny business, and contemplate on characters that actually have a chance. Such as:

Nominations:
Pappy Van Poodle x1

Additional Nominations:
Spyro x2
Protector (EO) x2

While I was purposely contradicting myself, with the on-and-on about the no jokes, my chance score is still a 0.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Tetromino

Chance: 0.001%

-Obvious joke character.
-And how would a tetris piece even work anyways?

Want: 0%

Come on. the 2nd dlc character announcement just can't come soon.

Nathan Drake Prediction: 3.77%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x10, Concept: DLC Challenges x5

 

[FancySmash]

Тетрис

Chance: 1%
I mean, I guess Nintendo likes Tetris. Tetris 99 recently came out, and it always gets it's theme in Smash. But... are we really discussing a living Tetris Block, a Tetrimino if you will, as a character? I'm sorry, I just don't see it. I find the following much, much, more likely:

A. Dr. Mario getting a complete revamp, with viruses, a better suited final smash, and the works
B. Arle of Puyo Puyo, who has recently crossed over with Tetris mind you
C. Region locked characters cross the boundary and we get Lip.
D. This isn't really one of the more likely events, I just wanted to point out that even Bub and Bob of Bubble Bobble had a puzzle stint at one point.

Case and point, there are already recognizable puzzle game characters that could be used. One of them is already utilized in Smash! Granted, Dr. Mario is... quite honestly a disgrace to what he actually could be (no offense to Dr. Mario mains and fans, I have a friend who really likes Dr. Mario, I just would like to see more Dr. Mario elements attributed to... well, Dr. Mario), but the option is still there. I suppose this brings us into...

Want: 0%
For what it's worth, it's not a hard 0%. I believe I could maybe be sold on the concept, but it'd take a lot to faithfully get right. A Tetris stage is easily a no brainer, but how do you make a Tetrimino work exactly? A Russian guy standing in the background motioning where to place each Tetrimino on stage similar to (mean no offense to any Russian users, I'm only trying to reference Tetris' Russian origins)? Heck, Steve of Minecraft might lack facial animations, but he arguably has a face. Tetris doesn't have characters, it has pieces, and that's OK. Tetris works without the need of characters. I'll submit that there might be something to work with, but to what point is enough enough?

Nathan Drake Prediction
I don't know how to go about ratings anymore. It's been so long without actual material to work with from Smash to make a good guess. 6.07%?

Noms:
Kamek x5
(Saving my noms until I can at least bring Kamek up)

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Noms:
Kamek x5
(Saving my noms until I can at least bring Kamek up)

Wait up, isn't Kamek decon'd after their appearance in the NSMBU stage? Aren't stage hazards out?

 

[FancySmash]

Wait up, isn't Kamek decon'd after their appearance in the NSMBU stage? Aren't stage hazards out?

Hmm, wouldn't they be similar to background elements? Like Toon Link on Spirit train? I see no reason why Kamek couldn't just be replaced with another magikoopa in a different colored robe.



Or even Kammy Koopa, a guy can dream.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Blockier than Steve himself
Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

Obvious reasons this will likely not happen: Big joke character with zero moveset potential. The Tetris company is also apparently difficult to work with. One strong point is that Tetris is extremely iconic and recognizable to the public eye. Tetris also has dozens of games on Nintendo consoles.

But what if I told you, the Russian puzzle piece has potential... potential that is unseen. I've seen actual movesets that could work for Tetromino, and I even made my own on the Tetris support thread. I'll list some ideas. It would float around and shapeshift for many of its neutrals. It can also be the only character in the game able to deal damage just by falling, (Not counting down b and down air.) alongside having the fastest fall speed in the game. It would launch pieces of itself at the opponent like a cannon. It's final smash could trap the opponent in a literal Tetris game, and squash players with falling Tetrominos. There is unseen potential, but you have to be creative. Also the color issue can be solved by having its alts based off the many styles and patterns across multiple Tetris games. (Specifically Tetris Friends.)

Tetris is a big part of my childhood, and seeing the Tetris website I played a decade ago shut down in just a few days is pretty sad. It's another gaming icon that I would love to see in Smash, despite how ridiculous it may seem at first. It's most likely not gonna happen, but the world will never know.

Speaking of Russians:

Heavy Weapons Guy x40
"IF YOU DONT NOMINATE HEAVY WEAPONS GUY, YOU ARE BIG BABY WHO NEED DIAPER CHANGE!!! NOW WHO TOUCHED MY
SANDVICH!?"

Nathan Drake: 1.24%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wait up, isn't Kamek decon'd after their appearance in the NSMBU stage? Aren't stage hazards out?

This thread was queried, and it was determined that only Assist Trophies and Pokéball Pokemon are considered disconfirmed. Anything else is fair game.

 

[Ridrool64]

Though I do believe that was pre-Joker, where everybody was expecting a first-party focus/exclusivity for the game's DLC. Still, a re-verdict would probably go over the same way.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Though I do believe that was pre-Joker, where everybody was expecting a first-party focus/exclusivity for the game's DLC. Still, a re-verdict would probably go over the same way.

Funny how it completely flipped upside down after his reveal.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Funny how it completely flipped upside down after his reveal.

When I was rereading the thread for calc scores, it was a total 180° when he was revealed. Compare Lycanroc's or Celica's score with every Nintendo character after and it's night and day.

 

[Ultomato]

Apperently this thing has a name

Chance: 1%
Yadayada first party. Yadayada Moveset potential.
Honestly, I do see it happening as a joke character in a future smash title. Joke characters just aren't fit for DLC.

Want: 70%
I don't want tetris in smash for the character. I want it because I want to see Sakurai make art out of that Wacky ass Moveset and stage!
Also, that one song slaps! (Although it's technically a Russian folk song so it's not really "the Tetris theme" per se)

Nom: Rundas x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Tetromino(s)

Chance: 30%
Dread it, run from it, Tetris fits all the criteria that people seek out in a guest franchise. Iconic? Undoubtedly. Important? It cannot be overstated enough. Surprising as all hell? You bet it is.

Of course, even though it's a pretty old meme pick, it's difficult to consider Tetris as a priority consideration. It's not some multimedia giant with a popular fantasy universe - it runs by the fame of its name and the core of its game alone. It's practically background pop culture at this point, leaving it in a weird limbo between iconicness and irrelevance.

Want: 70%
I was a non-believer once. And then I came across this concept, which made me realize that we've been going about this concept all wrong this whole time. Why assume that one tetromino is our only option for a Tetris character, when using all of them in a single character is so much more representative of the game? A single tetromino may be obviously lacking in potential, but a floating collection of spinning, moving, shapeshifting blocks inspires a heck ton more.

Tetris has always been recognized for its place in video game history, and yet dismissed because it has no apparent representative for Smash. But these days I believe it's possible, especially when we already have Game & Watch (of all things) represented.


Nominations
Valve Representative x5

 

[BowserKing]

Tetris?

Chance: 5%. While there are 2 tracks in the game, I think it would be more plausible that they would be a stage hazard. Then again, this franchise is very iconic.

Want: 65% Most likely as a stage, since it would be a fun stage to play on. If it where to be playable, it would make even Piranha Plant be expected in comparison. Also some new remixes wont hurt.

Noms: 2 for Adeleine and 3 for Black Shadow

 

[Jomosensual]

Tetromino

Chance 10 - Tetris having a music track is probably all it's getting for this smash game. It fits all the criteria for getting a fighter. Iconic? Yes. Relevant? Always is. But does it work for DLC, especially when they wanted you to buy all 5 characters ahead of time? That's where I'm not sure. It feels like troll characters like that are better suited for the base roster, which is why I don't really see it happening.

Want 90 - I would love it. WTF characters getting into the game are some of my favorite reveals. I loved seeing Piranha Plant's reveal and the character I was the most hyped for in Smash for was Duck Hunt by far. I don't want all the roster to be random characters but I really like to see ones like this get in

Noms
Ellie x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

(Now that I think about it, Tetrominos would have made a great assist trophy. Carry on.)

 

[Nemuresu]

When I was rereading the thread for calc scores, it was a total 180° when he was revealed. Compare Lycanroc's or Celica's score with every Nintendo character after and it's night and day.

Different approaches. When we first heard that Nintendo chose the characters, most people assumed the whole Pass would be nothing but promotional characters, but once Joker came in, tables were turned.

 

[Neosonic97]

Just... why?

Chance: 0.
Yeah, no. Not happening. Nuh uh. It's literally an inanimate object. That's all I really need to say. The BEST I could see it being is an Assist Trophy a la Color TV-Game 15.

Want: 0%.
I don't want it for all the same reasons as I think it doesn't have a chance. That's all that needs saying.

Nathan Drake prediction: 1%

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Tetromino Chance: 0%
A legitimate non-character that's owned by a really strict third-party company and has barely ever been requested? I mean, sure, the Teromino is undeniably important, but that one positive more than likely won't be enough to get Tetromino in.

Want: 60%
... That said, I don't think moveset potential is much of a problem, especially after seeing that moveset posted by ProfPeanut. It's not a big want of mine, but a bunch of Tetrominos fighting as one entity definitely has enough potential for me to like the idea.

Nathan Drake prediction: 2%

Nominations: Steve X5

 

[DaUsername]

Macho Man With A Fishing Pole But He's Riding The Sun And The Sun's Got Sunglasses On And He's Like "I'm Fishing For A Fight, Brother!"
Chance and Want: 0%
I could go on and on about why Tetris will never be in Smash, but Nick Magazine explained it better than I ever could.

Spoiler: Image

I knew I kept this magazine around for a reason!

But seriously, not every franchise needs to be represented with a playable character, especially when your first choice isn't even an actual character. The music we have is fine enough representation as is. If you really want more, just ask for a stage instead of a character that doesn't exist.

Nathan prediction: 0.4%
Noms: SE rep x5
Yes, I know I have extra noms but I'm gonna wait until after E3 to use them.
Also, I hate to be that guy, but what's the status on the base game calcs?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Tetris

5% Chance

It would be an Internet breaking move, but it ain’t something I would bet on.

Tetris is massive, almost unarguably one of the biggest franchises not in smash. So by that merit, it fits. Furthermore, Tetris also has the benefit of a strong Nintendo history. Tetris is one of the premier games for both he NES and GameBoy.

However, there is the issue of a moveset. Could you make a moveset for Tetris? Or would a different puzzle Rep or a stage be better?

100% want

End part sums this up for me. An idea I never seriously considered but now want a lot. Would be ridiculous in the best possible way.

Crash x 5

I’m ending the day, but I will be unable to do so for the next few days due to a personal emergency. There will be a temporary takeover for the weekend, don’t worry.

 

[Sari]

Some music to get into the Nathan Drake mood:

Spoiler

----------

Nathan Drake

Chance: 1%
A Sony property whose series has never had a Nintendo appearance. Seeing as how Sony is incredibly stingy with sharing their IPs and not as friendly with Nintendo as Microsoft is, I doubt this will happen in the foreseeable future. Even if Sony miraculously said "screw it let's add a character to Smash," Drake would most likely have to compete with fellow Playstation icon Kratos.

Want: 80%
I love the Uncharted series and Uncharted 2 is one of my favorite games of all time. It'd be interesting to see Drake in a non-Sony fighter and I'd love to see how they make use of him being a beast behind cover and when hanging on a ledge.

Palico chance prediction: 4.62% (could happen but the actual Monster Hunter character that you control seems more likely)

Nominations:
Crash rerate x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Nathan Drake

Chance: 0%
While it's possible Nintendo wouldn't oppose putting a Sony character in their game, I don't see Sony wanting to let them. While every other platform and company was celebrating things like crossplay and sharing between the different platforms, Sony vehemently excluded themselves from it. I really can't see them being less isolated with their IPs, especially since there isn't much incentive for them to do so.

Want: 25%
I'm not very familiar with him, so I really hold no feelings for or against him on a personal level though he does seem kinda cool overall. The lower score is simply because we have finite opportunities for playable characters and there are many others I rather get over him, so I really don't oppose him really. Though if he brought a Smash take on the Stowaways stage (minus the Bioshock stuff) with him, I'm more on board.

 

[Opossum]

Chance: 1%
He's a Sony character. We all know how Sony can be. He's definitely iconic enough though.

Want: 100%
Hell yeah! Nathan Drake is a certifiable icon, and is arguably Sony's mascot (it's definitely either him or Kratos). He had a really fun moveset in PSASBR too.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Unkarded
Chance: 0%
Under no circumstance do I see us getting a Sony owend IP in the game. I don't see why Nintendo would try to collaborate with them for Smash, especially after the crossplay situation. Not to mention that Drake wouldn't even be their first choice. Uncharted isn't as relevant as some other Sony IP at the moment and Nathan doesn't have much potential as a fighter. He's basically a normal guy with some firearms. One of those protagonists that wouldn't have much appeal to a Japanese audience.

Want: 0%
Pretty sure Uncharted is a fun game series but it has absolutely zero ties with Nintendo and thus, he doesn't belong. Please give us third-parties who actually have games on Nintendo platforms and are actually requested.

Palico: 2.45%
Bandana Dee x3
Qbby x2

 

[3DSNinja]

Charted
Chance:0%: Easily the least likely PlayStation char. He is from an M-rated series, a shooter, only is on PlayStation, and is a western character. Sorry, but not gonna happen.
Want:0%: And I could care less. I prefer Sly Cooper as a PlayStation rep, and Master Chief as a shooter rep. I really don’t care.
Nominations:
Specter Knight x2, Blaze x3

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Have a minute of time before hell, can post a quick rating.

Nathan Drake

0% Chance

The era of Uncharted has passed a bit. He is owned by a direct competitor that unlike Microsoft has not played nice with everyone. Remember Cross Play issues? Furthermore, there is so much competition for a Sony rep, such as Kratos or Ratchet and the like. Finally, the role of a Sony rep can easily be met by non Sony characters. Snake and Cloud already fill it a bit due to their PS1 legacy. Newcomers like Crash, Lara Croft, or a Tekken rep would suffice as well. Competition kills this character in more ways that one.

30% Want

While I like Uncharted, I do not like it enough to get into Smash. The series is held back by just often not being fun for me (then again I hate cover shooters). That being said a stage could be cool i guess...

Crash rerate x 5

 

[Neosonic97]

He ain't lucky this time!

Chance: Straight 0, again.
Uncharted is kinda over now. Sony and Nintendo haven't got the best history with each other, we already have Cloud and Snake and to top ALL of that off, even if we ignore Sony and look at Nathan's source company, that being Naughty Dog, there is no way Nathan is getting in before a certain orange marsupial.

This orange marsupial, to be specific. Yeah... Nathan is not getting in before Crash.

Want: 10% or so?
While Nathan Drake does have potential for an interesting moveset, there are characters both from his type of game and his company (again, Crash), that are just much better picks than he is.

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

 

[Ridrool64]

(This probably isn't accurate but) Gijinka Sly Cooper

Chance: 0.01%. I honest to god consider Sony characters Goku tier, because the chances that Sony will ever, ever, EVER, EVER work with Nintendo again are so slim that you could use them as an exercising goal. They are pretty much the only company with the financial stability and spite towards Nintendo to be able to reject a Smash character for any reason. Now, of course maybe I'm overestimating how much Sony hates Nintendo but considering they were pretty much put on the mark by being a spite company in regards to gaming, I don't think we'll be seeing Nathan Drake any time soon.

Want: You know what? I have far too little to go off of for a fair rating. I'm going to finally abstain on want because I don't think I should invest stock into this sort of character. He's more about breaking down barriers than anything else. I don't know what to say here.

Frisk x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Kitty got wet!

Chance: 0.5%
I'm splitting that half percent between him and Kratos, as it's either one or the other for Sony's mascot. But Sony doesn't play ball, so it's really not likely that one of their characters will ever join Smash.

Want: 90%
An iconic, likable character starring in a series of critically lauded games? Sign me up please! While there are some problems with movesets potential, there's enough mystical artifacts and several tools he could use (and his PSASBR move of kicking a flaming barrel is a must). Plus he's the kind of character that would ooze personality.

Noms: Kyle Hyde X5

Palico prediction: 2%

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd appreciate more opinions on whether 2B and Sora are seen as disconfirmed. I've heard pretty compelling arguments for Sora still being in the running, but I want more input before making a decision.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tetromino pre-Nathan Drake

Monokuma x120
Amy Rose x115
Creeper x110
[Rerate] Erdrick x107
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x105
Morrigan Aensland x105
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x105
Frisk x105

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x103
Concept: Microsoft Rep x102

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x100
Spyro x93
Kamek x92
Crono x90
Boss: Kracko x87
Frogger x85
Kyle Hyde x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
Concept: Square Enix rep x75
Concept: Valve rep x75
9-Volt x74
Saber (Fate) x70
Heavy (Team Fortress) x66
Jin Kazama x65
Ninten x64
Adeleine (Kirby) x60
Velvet Crowe x55
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
X (Mega Man) x47
Rundas x45
Decidueye x43
Ellie (The Last of Us) x40
[Rerate] 2B x35
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Specter Knight x30
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25

Under 25

Earthworm Jim x21
[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x15
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x14
Black Shadow x13
Gex x12
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x11
Qbby x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
King Boo x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x8
Toon Zelda x8
Marx (Kirby) x8
Magolor x6
Mike Jones x6
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Concept: More Bosses x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1

Monokuma finally took the top spot from Amy Rose. Meanwhile, Creeper creeps past Erdrick to third place. And Crash freaking crashes into the top 7 at amazing speeds, sending Microsoft rep falling. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top spot before the week is over at the rates he is being nommed. Oh, and Frisk also gets into the top 7, tied with Freddi Fish and Luther, Morrigan Aensland and Crash for 5th place.

Velvet Crowe and Heavy cut past 50 noms.

Today's newcomers are Gene, with 50 noms, Blaze the Cat and Concept: More Bosses (each with 5 noms), and Pappy Van Poodle with a single nomination to his name.