Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Gen 7 Pokémon: 99%
I feel like this is practically guaranteed; there is no way they won't add a new Pokémon into a new Smash. The roster was probably decided before Sun and Moon even came out, so I doubt there was any substantial information on the 8th generation. We haven't even seen anything on the 8th gen, and we probably won't see anything on it until next year, after Smash Bros. comes out. There's always been a minimum of 3 years between the release of new generations, I don't think that will change now. So I'm confident that Sakurai decided to go for a gen 7 Pokémon.

Want: 90%
Gen 7 has a lot of great Pokémon.

Nominations: Geno x5

 

[Deleted member]

forgot to nominate
Decidueye x5
Yeah that should give away the one I'm actively rooting for

 

[Icedragonadam]

Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 50%

Want: 80%

It could happen. Of course there's a possibility of a gen 8 rep if the next Poekmon games are revealed around E3 time if Sakurai pulls a Greninja again.

Prediction

Chrom: 22.45%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[a smart guy]

Gen VII Pokemon
Chance: 80% In all likelihood, this will happen. They've got several options to choose from with both Decidueye and Mimikyu. There are two ways this doesn't happen. One, Sakurai finds a Pokemon from the next generation, which is definitely possible, but the timelines are sketchy. Two, Sakurai decides there are enough Pokemon in the game. Honestly, that's just hedging my bets, and I doubt that would happen.

Want: 50% I haven't actually played Sun and Moon yet, so I don't have any strong feelings. I like Mimikyu's design though, and think it could be a good addition. Decidueye would also be a good fit. I'm mostly neutral though, since we've been getting a lot of Pokemon in game.

Predictions: Chrom 21%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

Some minor housekeeping stuff.

First, the initial post where I posted the schedule for March to get the ball rolling has been turned to an archive. Now you can easily click on the day and see the votes and conversation that occurred. This was partially to make the thread more accessible and to make the post not be useless after March.

Secondly, the noms page has been updated,

Finally speaking of noms, @PhilosophicAnimal won five extra noms today since he was the closest.

You know I've been keeping the links to all the days right? I don't mind you copying my work, so more people can see it. Here's the link to it.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Generation 7 Pokemon

Chance - 90%

If Generation 8 had been revealed at this point, I'd be 100% convinced it would be a Gen 8 Pokemon instead. However, I feel like Generation 8's development probably came just a smidgen too late, so I think we'll be getting a Generation 7 mon. We don't have a grass starter yet, so I think a certain popular owl has the best shot.

Want - 75%

I'm basing this number off of Decidueye, because I feel like he's the most likely. Otherwise, my numbers would be all over the place. I chose him in my Sun playthrough, and he's a cool guy. We don't really have much of an archer character anyway, so I think he would be a fun addition.

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

Chrom is tomorrow? Oh boy. The Fire Emblem poo flinging begins. Surprised he's the first one though. He isn't exactly the most popular or relevant FE character in line.

 

[Deleted member]

Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance: 87%
It's ether a yes or a no as to weather we'll get a gen 7 Pokemon or something from the next Pokemon game. But I think the chances are very high!

Want: 99%
Incineroar or Decidueye I absolutely would want one in the game more so Decidueye, but I'd be fine with ether.

Prediction: Chrom 10.5%
Yeah I doubt it at this point his chance seems to have passed.

Nominations: Isaac X2
Lloyd Irving X2

 

[Deleted member]

Predictions: Wolf

That's not how predictions work

 

[Deleted member]

That's not how predictions work

Edited, hopefully that's better thanks for the heads up.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Gen VII Pokemon
Chance: 95%
I am going on the assumption that Gen VIII is not going to release this year. Each Smash Bros game always featured a Pokemon from the current gen which would be Gen VII once SSB5 releases. Decidueye and Mimikyu are the most likely to be the Gen VII rep.

Want: 100%
I love both Decidueye and Mimikyu, so by all means put them in the roster.

Predictions: Chrom: 10.2%

You know the drill Celica x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Chance- 90%

All but confirmed. I doubt we're getting Gen 8 before Smash.

Want: 80%

It depends on the Pokémon. I'd really like Deciduieye and Mimikyu, I'm indifferent to Buzzwole and Incineroar, but keep Midnight Lycanroc 10 miles away from anything but a trophy

Nominations: Marx x1, Kamek x1, Concept: Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x 3

 

[fogbadge]

a gen 7 pokemon

chances: 90% just about every smash game has had a pokemon from the most recent gen and i dont think well be getting gen 8 before next year

want: 90% be it mimikyu, decidueye or a ultra beast theres plenty of gen 7 pokemon ill be happy to see

i doubt itll be palossand though

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Gen 7 Pokémon:

Chance: 90% - This is more a case of me giving a Gen 8 Pokémon 10% really, a new Pokémon is guaranteed as always, and with this game likely coming out some time before Gen 8 I feel that a Gen 7 Pokémon is the safe choice.

Want: 40% - I love Pokémon, but Gen 7 is my least favorite generation, the best designs are merely okay, so it's hard to get excited about any potential addition. Decidueye would be the best, but I'd probably give it a 50%, and then the other potential additions just drag the overall want % down.

Nominations: 5x Skull Kid

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Gen 7 Pokémon Chance: 80%
Almost guaranteed. That said, I could see Sakurai not going for one, especially if none catch his eye.

Want: Abstain
100% depends on the Pokémon. We could have something cool or something really boring.

Chrom Prediction: 10%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Gen 7 Pokémon:

Chance: 90%
The only way we are not getting any Alolan Pokémon is if we don't get a Pokémon newcomer at all. Gen 8 has not been announced, so there is zero chance an Pokémon from it will be included.

Want: Abstain
It's far too vague to give a want rating. For example, I want Incineroar 100% but have 0% desire for Decidueye, and others I'm also mixed on.

 

[Sid-cada]

Gen VII Pokemon

Chance - 99.5% - Pokemon is always promoted, as GameFreak has some sway over the roster. While their may be some debate over who is going to be it, unless Gen VIII had designs well in advance we're almost guaranteed someone from this gen.

Want - 60% - I'd be interested in a number of choices, but some I'd rather not. Overall net positive, I think.


Predictions

Chrom - 7.93% - Oh, time has already passed him...


Nominations

Anna X5

 

[wildvine47]

Gen VII Pokemon

Chance: 85% - On the very, very slim chance that Gen 8 is going to be revealed very soon, and that they had concept art for it waaaay ahead of time, I could see a Gen 8 mon getting the nod instead. Considering Zeraora hasn't even been revealed yet, it's not looking likely. With that in mind, I feel like we're practically guaranteed a Gen 7 mon, with Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Tapu Koko, in order, being the frontrunners in my mind.

Want: 65% - This'll vary more when we get to individual days. If it's Decidueye, Mimikyu, or Tapu Koko, I'd be down. If it's something like carrot dog or that fursuit they're calling Zeraora, I'd rather take my chances with a Gen 8 mon. I feel the former are vastly more likely than the latter, hence why I'm giving it a little over 50/50.

Chrom Prediction: 8.19% - Oof, poor guy. Smash 4 was really his only shot, and both his kid and best friend got in before him. Tomorrow's gonna be a rough day.

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 80%
It's very likely to happen.

Want: 0%
I really dislike Sun and Moon.

 

[Deleted member]

Gonna make this one short:

Chance: 70%

Want: 70%

Nominations:
Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Chrom prediction:
4.96%

 

[Wyoming]

7th Gen Pokemon:

Chance - 97.5%
I mean.... it has to, really? 8th gen wasn't planned at the time nor do I see them adding a character from it late into the development cycle. Pokemon is a series that always expands in terms of potential move sets and designs. It would be foolish to not include one from a generation that introduced Z-Moves (an obvious final smash for a new character), potential fusion (in a sense), and so on.

The 2.5% doubt is merely because aside from the Inklings that were already revealed, I have no idea who else can be certainly added at this time. This concept, however, is the closest we'll get to a guaranteed deal.

Want - 70%
I quite like the new starters. Whether they make one into a fighter or a new Pokemon Trainer with them is fine by me. Only downside is I don't really care for Mimikyu, Tapu or Lycanroc, but I accept that a new Pokemon is inevitable and deserving. So either way......

Chrom prediction: 9.4%

Noms: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Ura]

Who's that Pokemon?

Chance: 70%

I could see any of them getting passed over for a new Gen 8 PKMN if Sakurai knew beforehand.

Want: 50%

Don't care either way as long as Mewtwo returns.

Prediction: Chrom

Chance: 12%
Want: 9%

Nominations

Andy X 5

 

[AvionFinch]

Decid - err, I mean, 7th Gen Pokemon:

Chance: 95%
The 5% is basically if there's some crazy circumstances where GF has been cooking up some amazing 8th gen pokemon design since RIGHT after 7th gen was finished and gave said design over to Sakurai. Otherwise, a 7th gen pokemon is basically the new Inkling, definitely the most likely newcomer IMO.

Want: 85%
This one depends on which pokemon they go with. If it's Decidueye or Lycanroc (preferably dusk or midday), its a full 100 for me, now for Mimikyu or the other starters its about a 70% still would be somewhat happy but far from ideal. So I'll put it in between.

Corn on the Chrob prediction: 10%

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x 5

 

[Starcutter]

Gen 7 Pokemon: 60%

Honestly, I see this likelier than a gen 8 rep, but that's also what a lot of people said about gen 5 instead of gen 6. although, I think the timing is a little more in favor of gen 7.

Want: 75% If it's not Decidueye or Lycanroc I don't want it. ew. but if it IS one of those, then YES.

Chrome Prediction: 14.5% He'll get his chance... another day. When ArkSys makes a FE fighter in 10 years.

Snip & Clip x3
Lycanroc x2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Gen VII Pokemon Newcomer
Chance: 80% - I think it's fairly likely we'll get one particular character from this gen, and ya'll know who it is.
Want: 95% - Provided it's my boy Decidueye, hell yeah.

Prediction: Chrom
Chance: 18.63%
Want: 61.92%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[StormC]

Chance: 80%. Even if gen 8 came out this year, I doubt Sakurai would have had enough time to access it during 2016. Barring a crazy upset or something like an Alolan Gen 1 Pokemon, I think a gen 7 Pokemon is a pretty safe bet.

Want: 50%. Decidueye is one of my most wanted newcomers, but while I'd be fine with Mimikyu, he wouldn't particularly interest me much. Don't really care a lot for Incineroar or whatnot either.

 

[Kitty-chan]

Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 90%
Safe to say that if they add in any nyu pokemon, it's gonya be a gen 7 pokemon nya. But Sakurai being Sakurai, I wouldn't be too surprised if he just threw in a random pokemon he liked from some other gen nya...

Want: 90%
I welcome any pokemon newcomer nya. I'd personally wanya see Mimikyu if it's a gen 7 pokemon nyaaa~

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Gen VII Rep
Chance: 90%
Want: 75%
Varies on which Pokémon

Chrom Prediction: 4.34%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 100%
This is the only thing other than Inklings I'd be 100% sure we're going to get in a new Smash game. It may seem like a bold claim, but a new Pokemon is basically guaranteed every Smash game so I'm past the point of pretending it might not happen.

Want: 40%
That said, I dropped Pokemon after X and Y and don't really know any of the Alola monsters. I'd honestly rather have Squirtle and Ivysaur back, or Meowth as a new Pokemon fighter. He does have a Alola form so it's not impossible, but the smart money is on Rowlett's final evolution and Fakeachu over there.

Chrom prediction: 3.4%

Nominations:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[MrRoidley]

Gen VII Rep
Chance: 99%
Considering how Smash might be coming before or just alongside Pokémon, I guess a Gen VIII rep is too recent, even if it's guaranteed for DLC. So I think they might just pick a Gen VII one

Want: 50%
Depends a lot on which Pokémon chosen. The most likely choice is Decidueye I guess, which I'm not too big on. Maybe they could make a Pokémon Trainer with Alola Pokémon or with one of them being an Alola Pokémon. But if it's just one Pokémon: I have no clue on how they'd make Mimikyu work, but if they could, I'd totally support it! I think it and Decidueye are the poster mons for Gen VII and Mimikyu is my favorite Alola Pokemon

oh and nominate:
Black Shadow x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance: 75%
A new Pokemon is guaranteed, but I think it'll be a gen 8 monster. I believe TPC would've shown Sakurai their picks for gen 8 mon even if the games were at an early stage when he began to work on Smash Switch. It's in their interest to have advertisement for their next games right off the bat rather than someone from games that are already out and doing well. However, there's always a chance gen 8 is not coming this year and in that case a gen 7 Pokemon is more likely.

Want: 50%
I don't really want any new Pokemon in particular. Decidueye is the most likely and I like him, but he's not a priority for me.

Chrom prediction: 27%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Troykv]

Gen 7th Pokémon

Chance: 60%

This depends a lot in timing and other factors are outside our knowledge... but outside of that, this looks like a very likely possibility.

Want: 50%

I'm very neutral with stuff like this.

___

Predictions:

Chrom: 7.5%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x4
Celica (Fire Emblem) x1

 

[NessSaysOkay]

I haven't done this in a while, heh. Anyway-

New Gen 7 fighter?

Chance:95% the 5% is like 4% Sakurai decides too many Pokémon, and the 1% is somehow gen 8 is this year and dev was close enough. Which I doubt. I think gen 8 is 2019, and even by some horrible event(I really don't want them to rush it) it's 2018, I still think it would be too late. DLC? Very likely. But I doubt it will be in the initial release. I honestly think it may be Incineroar, Decidueye is the least popular of the fully evolved starters in japan, Primarina is the most but can you imagine Primarina "dancing powerfully" I sure can't. If not Incineroar than maybe Mimikyu, the second most popular(Rowlet is #1) or Lycanroc, probably Dusk with skins of Midday and Midnight colors, doubt appearance since one is bidepedal and quadruped. I think people are highly overrating Decidueye's chances, though I do want him the most of any alolan mon. But a gen 7 mon period? Yeah, a shoe in imo.

Want:50%
Too many choices, some would be cool, some would be dumb, so I'll keep a complete neutral

Prediction:Chrom, 8.4%

Nomination:Concept:New Mother char x5

 

[Fenriraga]

(Please don't actually do this.)

Chance: 90%

Even if we did somehow get a new generation by the time Smash came out, I'd still say a Gen 7 rep would be very likely. Gen 7 was popular for a wide variety of reasons, and with Gen 7 quite literally being one of Nintendo's fastest selling games EVER even when compared to other Pokemon games, I'd say the chances are pretty heavily in favor of a Gen 7 rep.

Want: ???

It honestly depends on what the Pokemon is. I don't look to generations for good Smash reps, I just look at the Pokemon themselves.

Nominate Geno x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer
Chance- 75%
Hard to say what all is going on behind the scenes, but it would seem that the timing lines up well for Gen 7.
Want- ABSTAIN
I don't necessarily feel like Pokemon "needs" a new character, so my interest really comes down to the individual Pokemon in question. I'll give scores whenever the likes of Decidueye and Mimikyu inevitably show up.

Chrom Predictions- 12%

Nominations:
Andy x3
Dillon x2

 

[colder_than_ice]

Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance: 75% - I actually do believe that a Gen 8 Pokemon rep is a bit more likely than many believe. It’s already been confirmed that Pokemon Switch could potentially be released as early as late 2018. Assuming it actually does make that window, it would be released around the same time as SSB5 and Sakurai is pretty much garanteed to have been let in on what they were planning.
Want: 100% - I’d honestly love to see Decidueye, Mimikyu, or Lycanrock in Smash.

Chrom prediction: 8%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[DNeon]

Concept: Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 100%

Yeah, I'm going to say that this is pretty much guaranteed. Anybody putting less than 85% is either not bothering to hide pokemon hate or tanking the chance for their prediction. Even if Pokemon Switch is further along than there's been any hint of Gen 7 has still been a major player in the pokemon series, shifting up the style in gameplay/story, acting as a reset for the anime and still being incredibly for both.

Want: 50%

Haven't played the latest installments, love pokemon but just hanging out for the Switch release.

Chrom Prediction: 17.58%

Nominations:
Andy x 5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance 95%

very easily going to happen this is a tradition of smash bros a pokemon newcomer from the most recent or the next generation its not 100% because of the supposive gen 8 thing

Spoiler: Most Likely for the spot

Decidueye (this one is the most likely)
Incineroar
A ultra beast (this includes poipole/Naganadel and Necrozma)
Tapu Koko
Lycanroc (Midnight)
Mimikyu

(the most i can see from the fans don't know enough about gen 7 Pokemon of how popular they are.)

Want 100%

i love pokemon and i always welcome new contenders

Prediction

Chrom 12%

he has lost so much ground the games not relevant any more might just be robins final smash again

Nominations

Dillion 5x

 

[Mighty Moose]

Chance: 100%
We all know it's happening, come on.

Want: 90%
There are other characters I want more, but there's also a lot of opportunity to do something cool here

 

[DNeon]

Finally speaking of noms, @PhilosophicAnimal won five extra noms today since he was the closest.

I really don't want to be petty, but I saw the result and thought 'damn, I predicted so close to that, how accurate was @PhilosophicAnimal to beat me out', just as a curiosity thing, and as far as I can tell these were out predictions:

Prediction: Dixie Kong

Chance: 63.55%

Dixie Prediction: 58.34%

I don't go back to couble check this every day it was mostly just me being like 'damn I missed out when I predicted within one percent, that's incredible how close they must have been'.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 83%

Gen 7 should've been extremely relevant around the time the roster was decided. This only won't happen if a Gen 8 Pokémon happens instead.

Want: 10%

I don't like any of the Pokémon with any chance of getting in. Decidueye might be cool using trick arrows, but it doesn't have as much a chance as people say, and there's a lot of Pokémon I'd rather have instead. Like a Gen 3 Pokémon, who is Sceptile. Or a Gen 8 Pokémon, who would be an early look into the region.

Nominations: Urban Champion ×5

 

[ForwardArrow]

Chance: 70%
Its been a trend that the most recent Pokemon generation usually gets a representative in the current game, and I suspect that will keep up. There's an open slot for Decidueye in particular as there's no grass starter in the game, and it at least has enough options to be distinct from any character currently in the game in terms of moveset. Mimikyu, while not an especially important Pokemon, is by far the most popular Pikachu spinoff so I could see it ever make it as well. The main reason I'm not giving this a higher score is I feel we may not end up getting all that many new reps, and the options if those two don't get in are pretty limited, as the next most iconic Pokemon are Cosmog/Ultra Necrozma/Nihilego, all of which would be extremely hard to give sets to.

Want: 10%
I don't care much for Pokemon, but an Ultra Beast or Mimikyu would be an addition I'd be okay with, in the grand scheme of things. Unfortunately, I'm fairly sure Decideueye is the most likely, and while I don't especially hate the thing it just doesn't have anything going for it that I find appealing. Plus the most similar set to what it'd probably be in Smash, Pit, is one of my least favorite movesets in the game, so that doesn't help.

Nominations:
Dark Samus x 3
Dark Falz x 1
Blue Bowser x 1