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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

slambros

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 12, 2012
Messages
784
Pokemon Gen 7 Representative

Chance: 65%
You're going to think I'm crazy. But I think there's chance that there is no Pokemon newcomer. Though I know it's slim, and I know we're probably getting Decidueye. But at the same time, I also see a varied amount of plausible scenarios regarding Pokemon newcomers that aren't limited to a rep from gen 7. But I will admit that the concept is likelier than a coin flip.

Want: 14%
I typed 100 ÷ 7 into a calculator and rounded the decimal down, because I really could care less whichever of the seven generations of Pokemon they choose to draw a Pokemon newcomer from. All I ask is that the Pokemon newcomee isn't one that would serve a better role as a Poke Ball Pokemon, because, let's face it, that's the majority of Pokemon. In other words, I'm not rooting for just any Pokemon. And I also feel like Pokemon could ease off on the reps (though I wouldn't complain if Decidueye became playable).

Predictions for Chrom
Chance - 15.44%
Want - 36.11%

Nominations:
Dillon x5

:171:
 

Munomario777

Smash Master
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Messages
3,253
Location
Charleston, South Carolina
3DS FC
0387-9596-4480
Switch FC
SW-8229-3157-8114
Alolan Pokémon

Chance: 95%. PKMN is gonna get a new rep, and the only way it ain't from Sun and Moon is if we're somehow getting a Gen 8 rep instead, like what happened with Greninja.

Want: 80%. Decidueye, Mimikyu, Incineroar... all of these guys sound pretty sweet to me.

Chrom Prediction: 15%. I reckon he's lost a lot of his foothold since the gematsu days, and he's also already a Final Smash.

Nominations: Snip & Clip x4, Blue Bowser x1
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
3,089
Location
New York
NNID
TomOfHyrule
Pokémon!
Gotta catch em all!


Chance: 95%
Want: 50%

Perfect timing, and with 807 mons at this point, they've got plenty to choose from. Only issue is that a lot get pushed into the background. Pokémon is the only series that has suffered permanent cuts every game so far, and cutting characters is not cool. I'd hope we can get some of the cuts (Squirtle and Ivy pls) back for DLC, but I can most definitely see them adding someone from the newest generation.

Most likely candidates I see are:
  • Decidueye - Popular, starter, and cool design. I'm not going to buy into the whole "muh grass type" argument, since type effectiveness was removed so there's no reason for Pokémon of several different types. Now if they brought back the Trainer with type effectiveness, then it may be interesting.
  • Mimikyu - At least this generation's Pika-clone got a lot more traction than Plusle, Minun, Pachirisu, or Dedenne, most likely due to an interesting backstory. A ghost-type fighter could have some fun moves (yes, Decidueye is also ghost, but is better known for grass and archery, and Mewtwo only uses a single ghost-type move)
  • Incineroar - A little on the nose, really. It is a wrestler archetype, but it also screams a bit furry Captain Falcon clone.
  • Buzzwole - To bring in the Ultra Beasts, and nother major fighter-looking thing.
I don't think I'd mind, but I really don't like losing the mons we have. I know there are a lot of people who are annoyed by the number of Pokémon characters in Smash, but like I said, there are 807 now. How many unique characters are in the entire Mario series?

Prediction for Chrom: 12.3%
Nominations: Skyrim rep x5
 

Awakining

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Apr 2, 2015
Messages
197
Gen VII Pokemon Representative:

Chance: 95%

It seems almost an absolute certainty, to me, that a Gen VII Pokemon will be included in Smash for Switch. Given their popularity, financial success, and the timing of their spotlight, I believe that there are simply too many factors to deny when considering such a representative. Additionally, I adamantly believe that a Gen VIII rep is infeasible due to conflicting timelines, which means that forgoing a Gen VII rep would be forgoing a Pokemon newcomer entirely from this Super Smash Bros. title's launch roster, a choice that would be incredibly unusual to say the least.

Want: 40%

Although I'm a fan of Pokemon, I just can't seem to get myself excited for this concept. No Gen VII Pokemon to stood out to me when I first considered their inclusion, and the vast majority of popular Pokemon which I have heard suggested since then are either those which I don't care for (a good example would be Decidueye; I dislike the constituent pieces of its design, and their sum is definitely not my taste) or Pokemon which I am entirely indifferent to. Nevertheless, there is potential in this generation's options, so I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised if one (or more) is included.
 

Bionichute

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 30, 2012
Messages
2,151
Gen 7 Pokermans

Chance: 98%
There's basically no way we aren't getting a new Pokemon in this game. US & UM came out recently, and I highly doubt that Gen 8 will be hitting before this game comes out. The only reason its 98% is because there is always a slim chance.

Want: Depends?
The concept is broad enough that it really would take a specific Pokemon for me to really give a clear "want" percent. If its Mimikyu, then that's probably a 75% want, but if its Decidueye, then that's like... 30%. I have other cute monster things I want in the game before any more Pokemon, though.

Nominations:
Blue Bowser x5
 

PhilosophicAnimal

Smash Ace
Joined
Jul 20, 2014
Messages
842
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Another reality
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Spectros_rage
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I really don't want to be petty, but I saw the result and thought 'damn, I predicted so close to that, how accurate was PhilosophicAnimal PhilosophicAnimal to beat me out', just as a curiosity thing, and as far as I can tell these were out predictions:





I don't go back to couble check this every day it was mostly just me being like 'damn I missed out when I predicted within one percent, that's incredible how close they must have been'.
Whoa, you are totally correct, my man. There was actually another person, Organization XIII Organization XIII , who was also closer than I was. Maybe TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom tagged me by accident?

Well, darn. After I got all excited and everything, lol. But it's cool. You deserve them for a guess THAT close. Well done!
 
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AwesomeAussie27

Banned via Warnings
Joined
Oct 12, 2015
Messages
15,260
NNID
AwesomeAussie27
3DS FC
4141-6335-9472
Switch FC
SW-6214-0583-2914
Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 80%

It's is bound to happen. Game Freak had approached Sakurai for new Pokemon before and it will likely be a Gen 7 one.

Want: 80%

I would love any Pokemon that is picked honestly, even Primarina. But not Zeroara. That one doesn't sit well with me.

Prediction for Chrom: 14%

Poor Chrom...

Nomination: Tsubasa Oribe x5
 

FrozenRoy

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Messages
1,261
Location
Las Vegas, Nevada
Switch FC
SW-1325-2408-7513
Chance: 85%

Pokemon has never failed to get a new character in Smash Brothers: Melee added Mewtwo and Pichu, Brawl added Lucario and Pokemon Trainer, Smash 4 added Greninja (and returned Mewtwo after a game of missing). We can assume almost assuredly Pokemon will get some kind of rep. And with that in mind, a Sun and Moon rep is highly likely, new generation and all, and on top of that Gen 7 has a lot of popular Pokemon, such as Decidueye, Mimikyu, the Ultra Beasts like Nihilego and so on, so there are a lot of good options.

I do gibe this 100% because we could always see a previous generation, like 1 or a remake generation, get a set in Smash easily, or even a Gen 8 rep. And who knows, maybe Sakurai stops with a Pokemon? I will give enough of a shot to other Pokemon to bring it down to Bandana Dee levels, but it is one of the highest bets for a Smash roster.

Want: 70%

The Want goes down due to the large number of Pokemon I wouldn't want in, but Mimikyu would be GREAT and I would also quite like Deciueye, Buzzwole, Nihilego and so on, so it goes pretty high but Sakurai could always put in someone I would be less hype for, like Lycanroc (who isn't all that bad, but...so many better options). So, I'll go with this.

Predictions: Chrom

22.4%

Nominations

Mimikyu x2
Decidueye x2
Takumi (FE Fates) x1
 

DNeon

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 24, 2015
Messages
1,003
Location
Brisbane, Australia
NNID
D_Neon_Lamp
Whoa, you are totally correct, my man. There was actually another person, Organization XIII Organization XIII , who was also closer than I was. Maybe TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom tagged me by accident?

Well, darn. After I got all excited and everything, lol. But it's cool. You deserve them for a guess THAT close. Well done!
I just checked and I think they mistakenly did it based on the want % and not chance.

If I do get the extra noms I'll chuck 4 to Andy and 1 to Travis.

Andy x 4
Travis x 1
^for readability sake
 
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TheDukeofDorks

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
193
Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 90%

Generation 8 feels too soon, and I doubt Game Freak would push for a Pokemon from an older generation. It's not so much a question of "if", so much as it is a question of "who?"

Want: 50%

I'm happy with the Pokemon we have. I wouldn't say no to more, and I wouldn't be upset to see nothing but veterans. I'm looking forward to seeing the Pokeballs though!

Prediction for Chrom: 9%
He may get his chance another day, but that day won't be this one

Nominating Bomberman x5
 

PhilosophicAnimal

Smash Ace
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842
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Another reality
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Spectros_rage
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Oops, haven't posted my ratings yet. This should only take a sec, though, mostly because...

Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: Abstain

As I said before, I don't even know which generation 7 is. I feel I am ill-informed to rate this, and it would be difficult to do research on an entire generation of Pokemon.

Want: 5%

I'll be honest: I have almost no desire to see any new Pokemon in Smash. The only generation I ever knew or cared about was gen 1, and that's all I need. I feel after that, most Pokemon designs have become rather generic and unimaginative, hence why I have little interest in the series anymore. I'm sure that's not a very popular opinion, but it's the one I have. I'm prolly the only Nintendo fan who doesn't care for Pokemon, lol.

Oh, and the reason I gave 5% was because there's at least a SMALL possibility I might like a gen 7, if it was one that looked to have a lot of potential.

Prediction: Chrom

7.88%

Nominations

Marx 5x
 

Smasher 101

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 21, 2013
Messages
1,046
Location
USA
3DS FC
0877-3649-6314
Switch FC
SW-7628-2111-0913
Gen VII Pokémon

Chance: 80%

Yeah, this is probably happening. Not higher than this on the off chance they really want to promote VIII (and the even more unlikely chance that there's nothing new at all, which would be very surprising), but I'm of the belief that it won't be around in time and overall I think the timing for VII is about perfect.

Want: 80%

I quite enjoyed this generation and there are quite a few good Pokémon from it that would make for fun fighters, so I'd certainly be up for one.

Chrom prediction: 5.11%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5
 
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NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
5,340
Location
Australia
NNID
trpdm.wilton
Chance 65%
There is something holding it back. Gen 8 is right around the corner. It's hard to tell if they have enough hindsight to go in favour of that instead.
Want: 70%
Gen 7 had good Pokemon, but there are some I'm less than in favour of

Nominate
Skull Kid x1
Parabo and Satebo x4

Prediction Chrom 5%
 

Xenigma

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 12, 2013
Messages
1,033
Location
Charleston, SC
NNID
Xenigma
Concept: Generation VII Pokemon
Chance - 90%

We have a pretty simple pattern here: each iteration of Smash has had at least one representative from the most recent Pokemon generation. By extension, having a Sun/Moon Pokemon seems almost a given as the most recent generation prior to Smash Switch. The only major variable is Pokemon Switch, which we know almost nothing about and which may not even release in 2018. Even if it does, Sakurai may not have seen any new Pokemon in time to be anything other than DLC. My money is we do get an Alolan rep, and further, likely one that is in Pokken *cough*Decidueye*cough*.
Want - 100%
I loved Sun and Moon, and Alola has its share of Pokemon that would be great in Smash. Barring maybe Incineroar, I can't imagine being disappointed by a Gen VII rep.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Chrom Predictions - 11.7% Chance, 35% Want

Would be an excellent double day with Lucina, and I'm not just saying that because I've been nominating her.
 

Arcanir

An old friend evolved
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Getting geared up for the 20th
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Shoryu91
3DS FC
4253-4855-5860
Gen 7 Concept
Chance 75%

I originally considered putting this lower, but after looking through Sakurai's project proposals for Brawl and Smash 4 I feel it's less likely that Gen VIII will get a new Pokémon on the base roster. Sakurai likes to have his roster drafted in the early stages of development, it's been consistent for two games and I'm pretty sure he'll follow the same mindset for this one, thus even if he set aside a slot I doubt he'd wait too long to put in a new Pokémon. So for Gen VIII to be considered, it'd have to have been in development at the exact right time that Sakurai came looking in TCPi, and while that's not impossible (Gen VII was implied to have been in at least conceptual development before XY's release) it's not something I'd say it's probable based on the limited information we have. The only reason I don't completely write it off is that I do think Gen VIII has a reasonable chance to be released this year due to how things have been lining up with Pokemon's multiple medias, and there is that off chance that Sakurai happened upon the game during development.

Gen VII on the other hand I feel is in a better position. It'd have lasted long enough to still be very recent upon Smash's release, and it has a number of Pokémon that people enjoy that many would go for. Timing and popularity seem to be on its side, and I feel that it will result in a character from it getting in.

Want: 100%
I prefer that they go with characters that are more established then not, and for Gen VII I have a number of favorites that I'd love to see playable.

Nominations
Lycanroc x5
 
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andimidna

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 22, 2013
Messages
3,330
Location
Gusty garden galaxy
Alola Poke:

Chance: 70%

I don’t think there’s much else to say than it’s clearly relevant and desired, and there are great options
I’d rank it higher if there was one clear pick as a glaring omission, but otherwise, the only reason this is higher is just not ranking anything as certain, and keeping likely things as close to 50 as possible.
In terms of the concept of a character from a specific series, I’d say the concept is up there with ARMS, DK, Rhythm Heaven, Zelda, Metroid, & Xenoblade, not counting vets.
Decidueye stands out as the clear pick honestly.
Want: 85%
It’s hard to say how much I want the whole concept, since I’d love some, but not others, ofc. I love Primarina, Decidueye, Mimikyu, the Tapus, Nebby, Rockruff, Nihilego, even Alolan Exeggutor lmao
Same with all of their respective lines except Rockruff
But I don’t like Incineroar (+line), the Lycanrocs, and some of the UBs (especially Buzzwole)

Chrom prediction: 3.5%

x4 Midna
x1 Azura
 

DaUsername

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
909
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In that corner over there
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DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
Gen VII 'Mon
Chance: 90%
Every Smash has had a Pokémon from the most recent generation, and I doubt this will be an exception. Also, a Gen VIII Pokémon getting Corrin'd into Smash sounds very unlikely.
Want: 70%
Decidueye is a pretty cool guy.

Chrom Prediction: 15%
Noms: Mike Jones x5
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
Alolan Pokemon!

Chances - 80%
This chance of a new Pokemon in a new games feels borderline 100% A 4 in 5 chance that that chosen monster is from Alola seems accurate. I'll break it down Pokemon by Pokemon on their respective days.

Want - 100%
I want a new Pokemon, and there's so many good choices I can't see myself being disappointed.

Prediction for Chrom is 9%

Noms:
Sylux x1
Sable Prince x1
Balloon Fighter x1
Mach Rider x1
Silvally x1
 
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Pennate

Smash Cadet
Joined
Aug 27, 2015
Messages
56
Concept: Gen VII Pokemon Newcomer:

Chance: 94%
This is an easy judgment. Pokemon is a hugely successful franchise that has a record of gaining at least one newcomer per Smash Bros. title, and the timeline of Generation VII's development and release makes a representative of that generation an excellent promotional character.

Want: 0.1%
No Pokemon from this generation interests me as a fighter. If it weren't for the fact that I save "0%" scores for special cases, I would have given one to this concept.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x3
Ganon x2
 

ZealousGamer

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
742
Gen 7 Pokemon Representative:

Chance 85%: Very likely.

Want 5%: Not a fan of Gen 3-7. I love 1 and 2 and would prefer a better representative than Pichu was. However, as we are missing a Grass type starter I'd rather have Sceptile than Decidueye. I do not want Mimikyu at all and I would also replace Greninja if I had the ability.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x
 

bksbestbwoy

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
1,465
Location
Brooklyn, NY
NNID
AzureJay89
3DS FC
4828-5479-7054
Switch FC
2162-7423-7143
Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 90%

Pokemon is probably the one franchise that always gets some activity among its entrants and Smash Switch is too early to take advantage of Gen 8 pre-launch stuff but too late to omit anything Gen 7. Personally, I see Decidueye making a strong argument for itself between its design, appeal to the public and gameplay hooks on top of filling a starter trio if so desired.

Want: 85%

I really want Decidueye given that they keep Charizard and Greninja (like they should). An actual avian archer could make for some rad stuff, especially with its ghostly attributes.

Nominations: Medusa x 5
 
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Strider_Bond00J

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 23, 2014
Messages
2,866
Location
la-lio~n~
Switch FC
SW-2525-8699-9095
Gen VII Pokémon

Chance: 97%
It's probably one of the few things I can imagine being guaranteed for a new Smash Bros.

Want: 80%
I don't have a particular preference for which Alola Pokémon we get - it could be Decidueye and I'd be hyped since it was my starter in Moon. It could be Mimikyu and I'd be amused at it's inclusion and laugh they did something unexpected by making Mimikyu playable. As long as it's not Bruxish. Or at the ultimate worst... *shudders* Stunfisk... (Yes, I know Stunfisk is Gen V. I just hate it's existence)


Nominations: Roy X5
 

GaroMaster

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 15, 2015
Messages
1,710
Location
South Bend, Indiana
NNID
Wesley
3DS FC
2895-7114-8104
Gen VII Pokemon
Chance: 99%
Gen VII has it all. It's popular, it was a big success sales wise, and it came out at just the right time to be in the running for Smash 5. Decidueye would be the choice since he is the starter, but choices such as Incineroar, Tapu Koko, and even Golisopod could be interesting. One of few things that I truly believe is practically guaranteed to happen in Smash 5.
Want: 60%
I liked Gen 7 and Pokemon such as Golisopod and Decidueye would be fantastic additions. Bring it on.
Nominations: x5 for Capcom character
 
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Erureido

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 4, 2014
Messages
5,408
NNID
Erureido
3DS FC
5301-1552-4121
Switch FC
SW-4754-8756-2004
Generation 7 Pokemon

Chance: 90%

Pokemon newcomers have been showing up in every Smash game, so I'm certain another one is bound to show up for this upcoming title. At the moment, we still don't know if Generation 8 will be coming out later this year, but I'm going to go with the assumption it won't for the time being. Thus, if Generation 8 doesn't come out this year, I think a Generation 7 Pokemon will still have priority as the newcomer. We'll see how the Pokemon news will develop in the coming months to see if this score will change or not.

Want: 80%

I liked Generation 7, and it's got a bunch of cool Pokemon. There's only a few of the major candidates that I'm opposed to, but I do have a number of Alola Pokemon I'd love to see making it into the roster. Primarina is among my most wanted, though I'd also be cool with the likes of Tapu Koko, Decidueye, and Lurantis making the cut as well. Funnily enough, I do have one Pokemon I'd rather see over all other generation 7 reps, but I already know said Pokemon is unlikely at the moment because it doesn't have the relevancy compared to the generation 7 reps.

------

Predictions

Chrom (Fire Emblem): 4.73%

Oh, poor Chrom. Even if he has become one of the main icons of modern Fire Emblem these days, what Smash 4 did to him really brought down his chances.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 87%

I doubt we get a gen 8 pokemon considering that hasn't even been shown yet. And it's highly likely we get a Pokemon newcomer from the newest games, so gen 7 it is.

Want: 100%

I'd absolutely adore Mimikyu, although I expect this to be Decidueye. That said, Decidueye does have a ton of moveset potential to be a completely unique fighter in more ways than one, either through trapping, archery, or grass based attacks. I just never used Rowlett or Decidueye.

Chrom Prediction: 6.2%

Nominations: Labo newcomer x5
 

Organization XIII

Smash Champion
Joined
Apr 10, 2015
Messages
2,083
Whoa, you are totally correct, my man. There was actually another person, Organization XIII Organization XIII , who was also closer than I was. Maybe TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom tagged me by accident?

Well, darn. After I got all excited and everything, lol. But it's cool. You deserve them for a guess THAT close. Well done!
Did I really? And on the day I forget to nominate someone too.
Well in that case
noms: Tethu X5 or X10 depending on whether I won or not
 

Fane

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 20, 2018
Messages
355
Gen 7 Pokemon:

Chance: 90%
Want: 80%


I'm almost certain that a Gen 7 Pokemon will be a newcomer in this Smash game. The 10% is only in the off chance they happen to announce Gen 8 soon, however I'm thinking that's not going to be until next year, unless they really want to forget Gen 7. I'm expecting either Decidueye, Tapu Koko, or Lycanroc, but I REALLY want to see Poipole represent not only Gen 7, but the Ultra Beasts as well, plus it's about time we get another cutesy Pokemon as a fighter.

Chrom Predictions:
Chance: 24.76%
Want: 47%

Nominations:
Poipole x2
Petey Piranha x2
Skull Kid x1
 
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chemo

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 20, 2018
Messages
94
Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 90%

Unless there's going to be a Gen 8 Pokemon instead or Sakurai is absolutely sick of Pokemon I think a Gen 7 rep is very likely

Want: 70%

I'm not a Pokemon fan, but I've always found newcomers from that series fun both mechanically and design-wise, so bring it on!

Nomination:

Doomguy x5
 

KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
32,756
Location
Southern California
3DS FC
1006-1145-8453
Pokemon Generation 7 Newcomer Chance: 100%

I don't know which Pokemon it's gonna be, but based on what Sakurai has stated about the addition of Pokemon characters and that we've gotten at least one newcomer from the franchise in each Smash game so far, this is one of the very few newcomers of the next game that I think is a guarantee. With the series' cast always rapidly expanding and with it only having a few solid mascots among it's long and diverse list of Pokemon, current popularity is one of the most important factors in choosing newcomers from the franchise for Smash. And I see no reason to doubt that we'll get one from the most recent generation. We just don't know which one it is.

Want: 100%

There's so many cool options, as is usual for Pokemon, that I couldn't say no.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5
 

MrMcNuts

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
816
Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 90%

I feel like Decidueye will be the popular pick and I have a feeling gen 8 won't be out before this new smash.

Want: 50%

I don't really get hyped for new pokemon but considering I loved decidueye, I'd actually be somewhat excited to try him in Smash if he was the one picked!
 

-crump-

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 12, 2015
Messages
2,060
Location
Pepperoni Secret
3DS FC
1590-4951-5915
Switch FC
SW-4366-1207-0908
Gen 7 Rep

Chance: 70%

I see it as pretty darn likely, but I can’t help but wonder if they feel that another Pokémon rep is necessary. All 6 Pokémon on the roster in Smash 4 have endured in popularity (well, except Jiggs, but she’s a legacy character at this point), and I don’t think any Alolan Pokémon really exploded in popularity like Lucario or Greninja. That said, Pokémon has always been the safest bet for new characters. If we do get a rep, it’ll either be Decidueye or Mimikyu, and I’m sure Sakurai would have fun working on either one.

Want: 80%
Assuming we do get either Decidueye or Mimikyu... Yeah, actually I’d love to see either one. Mimikyu is easily my favorite Pokémon design in recent history, with Robin Hoot not far behind. If we got a surprise pick like Necrozma, or another Ultra Beast... I would still be on board. I’m rarely disappointed with new Pokémon characters.

Predictions:
Chrom: 12%

Noms:
Codename S.T.E.A.M rep x5
 
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PSIGuy

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 27, 2014
Messages
1,967
Location
Australia
Gen 7 Pokeyman
Chance: 100%
I'm gonna go a step beyond and say that there's no chance of there NOT being a Gen 7 Pokemon. People are so sure we're seeing content from unreleased games in Smash 5 which I disagree with, but I don't even think GameFreak have enough to show Sakurai to allow for a Greninja scenario. With two 7th Gen Pokemon games in the previous gen, they're a safe fallback option.

Want: 20%
Eh, I like Pokemon (Sun/Moon not so much). I don't really care for the starters or most Ultra-Beasts (besides bambooship and roachlady) and it doesn't seem likely that we get a non-starter or non-UB (if they want to push those). Mimikyu would be a funny addition, a Pikachu-wannabe getting in with a decoy/substitute mechanic (allowing for super armor during hits, but you have to repair it in your own time). But we'll probably get the owl instead.

EDIT: Noms
Codename Steam rep x 3
Elma x 2
 
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Lord-Zero

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2015
Messages
1,740
Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer

Chance: 88%

Very likely unless a Gen 8 Pokemon got Sakurai’s attention.

Want: 100%

Give me Decidueye or Bewear.

Prediction

Chrom: 11.5%

Nominations

Black Shadow x5
 

Parallel_Falchion

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,336
Alola! (Love the image used for today, btw)
Chance: 90%
No "But Greninja!"'s here. X and Y came out a year before Smash 4. What came out a year before Smash 5? Ultra Sun and Moon. And Pokemon is too big a franchise to not get a newcomer.

Want: 70%
My first guess would be Decidueye, whom I really would like to see, but anyone Sakurai would choose from Sun/Moon I think would be good.

Nominate 2B x5
 

Leafeon523

Smash Ace
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All your base
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Gen 7 Pokemon:
Chance: 50%
I put the chance of their being a gen 8 Pokemon rep at 30%, some random Pokemon rep at 10%, and no new Pokemon rep at 10%.

Want: Abstain
I don't feel comfortable rating a concept like this without knowing the particular Pokemon. I'd give Decidueye a 70% tho.

Nominating Shovel Knight x5
Predicting Google Chrome at 6.9%
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
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Dec 10, 2013
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TCT~Phantom
Gen 7

90% Chance

Simply put the time table matches up so well. I see gen 8 as 2019 Q4, so it would be good for dlc. I could be wrong though. Also gen 7 has so many great mons like decidueye and mimikyu.

100% Want

Lots of great mons to choose from. Gen 7 mayhave lacked in content but it had great mons.

Nominating no cuts x 5

Day over, calcs in Morning
 

PhilosophicAnimal

Smash Ace
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842
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Another reality
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Spectros_rage
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Hmm...seems like a low-key day today. Well, let's jump right in to the update...

Noms update, Day 17

Nominations List

Celica x 159
Dillon x 157
Andy x 155
Concept : Zelda Newcomer x 137
Professor Layton x 137
Midna x135
Bomberman x 123
Eggman x 122
Decidueye x 121
Shulk x 120
Chibi Robo x 119
Lucina x 110
Shovel Knight x 108
Concept: No Cuts x 106
Phoenix Wright x 106
Doomguy x 103
Waluigi x 103
Marx x 102
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 98
Banjo Kazooie x 95
Sora x 93
Skull Kid x90
Lucas x 85
Jibanyan x81
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x81
Micaiah x 79
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x73
Geno x 70
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x62
Travis Touchdown x 59
Mewtwo x 57
Elma x57
New story mode x55
Agumon x55
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x55
Excitebiker x54
Sans (Undertale) x52
Kamek x50
Roy x48
Urban Champion x46
Labo Related Character x 44
Hades x42
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x40
Tsubasa Oribe x40
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x40
Funky Kong x39
Ryu Hayabusa x35
Dark Matter Blade x35
Lycanroc x35
Simon Belmont x34
Qbby (from Boxboy) x34
Concept: Code Name STEAM rep x33
2B x 33
Black Shadow x31
Lloyd Irving x27
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x27
Blue Bowser x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Susie (Kirby) x25
Klonoa x25
Arle Nadja x25
Sophitia x25
Masked Link x24
Neku x 24
Ashley (WarioWare) x24
Azura x 23
Concept Indie Character x 22
Style Savvy Rep x 22
Scizor x 21
Palutena x 21
Mipha x21
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x20
Concept - Skyrim representation x20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Takumi (FE Fates) x19
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x19
Concept: Advance Wars CO x16
Returning game mode: Smash Run x15
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x15
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x15
Concept: New Mother Character x 15
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x15
Medusa x 14
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
9-Volt (WarioWare) x12
Doshin the Giant x12
Bayonetta x12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Parabo and Satebo x12
Greninja x11
Dark Samus x 11
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x10
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Robin x 9
Viridi x9
Mimikyu x 9
Poipole (Pokemon) x9
Pac-Man x8
Fawful x8
Impa x 8
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Concept: Custom Moves Return x7
Sylux x7
Balloon Fighter x7
Petey Piranha x7
Concept: Capcom Character x7
Cloud x6
Nia and Dromarch x6
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Prince Fluff x5
Ninten x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ray (Custom Robo) x 5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Caeda x5
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Ghirahim x4
Lip (Panel de Pon) x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Cranky Kong x3
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Tom Nook x3
Dragonborn x3
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x3
King Boo x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Zangoose x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toon Zelda x2
Tails x 2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Endou Mamoru x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Concept: Snipperclips representation x1
Tetra x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Isabelle x1
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Mach Rider x1
Sable Prince x1

Notes:

And for yet another day, Celica, Andy and Dillon hold a steady lead at the top of the pile. Bat Layton, Midna and our mystery Zelda rep aren't far behind. Can anyone topple the big 3?

HOLD IT!

Phoenix Wright breaks 100! It's about time. In addition, one of my personal favorites, Marx, has also breached the big 100. I wonder if he's scheming for the top spot...?

I just checked and I think they mistakenly did it based on the want % and not chance.

If I do get the extra noms I'll chuck 4 to Andy and 1 to Travis.

Andy x 4
Travis x 1
^for readability sake
Did I really? And on the day I forget to nominate someone too.
Well in that case
noms: Tethu X5 or X10 depending on whether I won or not
Well guys, I double-checked, and it looks like the winner was NONE of us. Turns out, @Yomi's Biggest Fan is the big winner, with a prediction of 58%, only about half a percent away:


Predictions for Dixie Kong: 58%
Sorry, dudes...but thanks for bringing it to our attention, DNeon DNeon . Yomi, let me know what you'd like to use those extra noms on. You should have five more, as I believe you already used five this round, correct?

Nominations: Krystal (From Star Fox.)X2
Lloyd Irving X2
Just FYI, you get FIVE noms a day, @Kremling Man. And Krystal was already rated a few days ago. Check out the first few posts on page 1 to see who's been rated already. I did count your two Lloyd votes, however. I'll give you till next update to use the other 3.

New additions this round:

Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Dark Falz x1
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x5
Silvally x1
Mach Rider x1
Sable Prince x1

And that should do it for today! TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom , here's a tag to get you here.
 

DNeon

Smash Lord
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Feb 24, 2015
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Brisbane, Australia
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Well guys, I double-checked, and it looks like the winner was NONE of us.
Winner was 58%, I'm officially not bothering with 4 significant figures any more. It just doesn't seem worth the ridiculously long chance of getting an additional 5 noms to throw myself out of contention of getting the first bonus 5 in the first place.

It just seems like an estimated guess at a 1/10000 guess isn't worth no longer tying at the estimated guess at 1/100.
 
Last edited:

AwesomeAussie27

Banned via Warnings
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Oct 12, 2015
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AwesomeAussie27
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Azure won’t be partaking in Rate Their Chances for a while due to medical reasons.

Though I’ll let him know about his extra nominations PhilosophicAnimal PhilosophicAnimal
 

Rockaphin

Smash Champion
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
Messages
2,490
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Rogueport
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Rockaphin
3DS FC
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Gen 7 Pokemon:

Chance: 80%

Want: 85%

I love Pokemon, and I'm always looking forward to the "new" Pokemon introduced in Smash. I really like Decidueye and Mimikyu, and luckily, I believe they have a good chance. The only reason this isn't a 100% score is due to the simple fact that there's Pokemon from other gens that I'd personally like to see (EX: Squirtle, Ivysaur, Scizor, Feraligatr).

Prediction:
Chrom: 16%

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x5
 
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