Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Arymle Roseanne]

Dixie Kong
Chance-65% She's still possible due to her relevancy and popularly with the Dk fans, it's only up to the devs if they are more interested in adding more to the series, with the addition of Isabelle her chance as a semi clone has increased cause if they truly want to have Dixie fully in character, an echo treatment wouldn't be enough since she would have to make good use of her ponytail which is something Diddy can't do.

Want-1000% the only one character I'm truly hoping for and has been my most wanted newcomer since the last installment.

Shantae-35% with only so many characters left to add I don't believe she can make the base game but potentially she could end up being dlc possibly.

Want 80℅ I think she would be a cool addition to the series with her magical tricks and bring some of those wonderful tunes from her games.

 

[Sari]

I would also like to say that SK's popularity I think is a bit over rated. During to ballot, his game was big news, so he could have gotten a lot of votes then. However, he only still has 1 game of his own, and I doubt sakurai would want to give a playable character slot to a character that we have no idea if will get more games or will stand the test of time. Shantae though has multiple games and been around for 15 years.

I agree. Unless new SK games start coming out over the years then he will probably never be considered for Smash again. The main issue I feel that plagues Shantae is how obscure the first two games are, especially the very first Shantae which basically no one has played. Although her series has history with Nintendo, her first few games can't really be considered well-known classics along the lines of other third parties such as Castlevania or Mega Man.

I think Shantae is destined to appear as a fighter in Smash one day, but I don't think that time will be now.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Tiny's Older Sister

Chance: 35%
Want: 15%

Last round, she looked like the clear winner out of Dixie vs. K.Rool. Now...not so much. A lot of international polls had them together before, and it seems like K.Rool's pulled ahead. There is a lot to be said about his (probably massive surprise to Nintendo) popularity, and I think she'll suffer for it.

She was a major character in the latest DK games, and she was planned in Brawl. Still, absolutely nothing came out of either of those.

My first major DK game (and only...I know, terrible Kutthroat. If only the Space Pirates knew I've really only ever played the first level of Metroid II) was DK64, so I really have no attachment to Dixie in the first place. Tiny was cool, but WTF did they do to her design? I liked her little. And Lanky was hysterical, and Chunky...ahh, great loads of fun.

This one's interesting. In most circumstances, she and K. Rool both deserve it. With fewer newcomers possible...they're in direct competition, which is a problem based on their overlapping fanbases

Here's about what it seems to look like on the boards: Most of the Kroc fanbase also supports either Ridley or Dixie. Now that Ridey's in, a lot of Ridley supporters have moved to K.Rool - not that extra support now will affect anything, but it's interesting to see. It does mean, though, that there wqas a lot of support back in the ballot era for both Riddles and the Kroc together, and Dixie was on her own a lot.

A lot of people are tossing the idea of Dixie as a Diddy echo. While that does a disservice to her, it could end up being a Wolf scenario - make Dixie a semiclone so most of the basic animations are done, give her her hair attacks and be able to make a character quicker. There is also the option of making Dixie a full character and making K. Rool a clone, but there are fewer characters (Bowser?) he could build off of easily.

It really comes down to what Sakurai is focusing on for the game. K. Rool has massive worldwide support from the ballot to now - Japanese Twitter was going on about "Where is K.Rool" during the Ridley reveal - but he's been MIA from everything for 10 years, and gond from the DK series even longer. Dixie has that relevance on lock, but her popular support does pale in comparison to K.Rool's - at least from the main speculation websites. People too young to remember K. Rool will of course only support the one they know.

I really don't know Dixie. My only DK game was DK64, and that was the one Dixie sat out (Tiny was cool though). K.Rool, however was prominent. As such, Dixie has always come off to me as Rule 63 Diddy so I never cared much. And with the two maneuvering into competition like this, I can't pretend that that's not affecting my want score. We'll likely be getting a DK rep this game if Sakurai and co. are going to be looking at fanservice, but as much as they don't favor the franchise since it's British at heart and not Japanese, I don't know if I can see both getting in without one of the two having the disservice of echo status. And as unfitting as it may be, my choice is clear.

Chance: 45%
Want: 0%

Well, this one's certainly changed. I'll go up to 50% Chance and 25% Want.

Now that we have , I always though a Chrom-style Dixie was a shoo-in, especially if they wanted to do something fun like move his tail bones to the back of her head.

But before E3, I also thought Takamaru was a lock, and the most obvious addiditon for the August direct was Ashley.

So congrats on the new assist, Dixie? Let’s see if I’m wrong there this time...

Still, Samustoo made me think that DK could easily get a unique and an echo, and Dixie has a larger fanbase than DS.

Again, I don’t really know Dixie at all beyond Rule 34 Diddy, so I’m not bothered one way or the other. Still, she is a good choice and it would be weird if she were missing.

——

I Dream of Jeannie

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

She has a fanbase, I'll give you that.

Still, I think she's cooled off in chance a lot since the last round of speculation. I know they just had the Nindies showcase, but Shantae's not on the list of top-sellers, at least according to Kotaku. Her biggest competition is and always has been Shovel Knight, and he's in a much better place than she is.

Never played the game, so all I know of her is the fanbase from here. And her character design. And as a Zelda fan, if we're going to have some Bedlah Babe in the game, I'd rather a Gerudo.

Sounds about right, but I'll echo a post I made in the general thread about her...

I dunno about Shantae. Honestly, I think there's a much better character who's dressed like that...

After all of this, I'm sticking with 5% Chance and 0% Want.

I’m at the point that there are only a few characters I really want, and if I get them, I’ll give out 90%’s for Want like Oprah. But until then, I’m pretty protective of my want scores since it is personal.

There are some characters I don’t want since they’re competition for my favorites (see Doomguy and Shadow). There are some that I have literally never heard of before so they don’t hype me at all. But there are only a few characters I actively dislike.

Shantae just rubs me the wrong way. I can’t exactly explain it - most of the characters I don’t like are those that I’ve literally never heard of until Smash, but then they’re touted as super iconic rivalling Mario himself. Also doesn’t help that many fans will get particularly defensive. These are the people who tend to pop up in RTC for one character only, complain that we’re all biased, then give 100% want and above 50 chance since they have all of their cherry-picked evidence.

Shovel Knight is as important as Shantae. One has a history with less important games, the other is a one hit wonder where that hit is massive. Thus, assist seems like a perfect role for her as well. An assist is not an altogether terrible representation - take it from someone whose favorite is never gonna be in the game at all.

Ah well...

Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I agree. Unless new SK games start coming out over the years then he will probably never be considered for Smash again. The main issue I feel that plagues Shantae is how obscure the first two games are, especially the very first Shantae which basically no one has played. Although her series has history with Nintendo, her first few games can't really be considered well-known classics along the lines of other third parties such as Castlevania or Mega Man.

I think Shantae is destined to appear as a fighter in Smash one day, but I don't think that time will be now.

I disagree with it not being her time now because: besides the fact that not many people have played her first game especially back in the day, she is the godmother of indie games and has existed before the indie scene itself come into existence. If Ultimate is a celebration of video game history and is representing reps from every corner of the industry, a indie rep has to be in and that indie rep would most likely be Shantae because she is the first indie character in history.

 

[zferolie]

I agree. Unless new SK games start coming out over the years then he will probably never be considered for Smash again. The main issue I feel that plagues Shantae is how obscure the first two games are, especially the very first Shantae which basically no one has played. Although her series has history with Nintendo, her first few games can't really be considered well-known classics along the lines of other third parties such as Castlevania or Mega Man.

I think Shantae is destined to appear as a fighter in Smash one day, but I don't think that time will be now.

Well the reason for the unknown of her 1st game was due to a poor release. It came out months after the GBA already released. But critics gave it rave reviews and people consider it one of the best GBC games to this day.

Anyway, lets rate!

Dixie Kong

Chance: 85%
The way K rool's reveal ended I think is a STRONG indicator that she is joining. She was planned for brawl, and she is quite popular. However, just because ISabelle is a unique/semi clone, I don't think Dixie will. Isabelle is the face of Animal Crossing. Sakurai wouldn't make the face of a series an echo. Dixie while she is popular is not the face of the series. She will be an echo, with her reveal trailer starting with of the K rool one ended, and be a chrome situation. Unique up B, , has a unique animation for carrying large object(looks like it is in the DKC games), and maybe unique animation for the dash. Plus the normal unique animations for idle and running.

Want: 100%
She deserves the spot, and will be a super fun character, even as an echo.

Shantae

Chance: 90%
With Shovel knight gone she is the only prime subject to be an indie rep(unless somehow Sakuari wants to put Reimu in from touhou, and that would be pretty lol but awesome.) She has a ton of circumstancal evidence which when added up really points to her having a very strong chance. I know people want to say because SK is an assist she cannot, but she would make a much better fighter and indie rep then him. She also is a ton more expressive then he is, which is a plus according to past sakurai interviews. She checks every box he has said for deciding a fighter. Wayforward is being unnaturally silent, she is not in any other indie fighting game, the sakurai room has a ton of stuff pointing to her, and more. I think she is a shoe in, but I don't want to put straight 100%

Want: 100%
Super want her. She is my most wanted character in this game, and I really hope she makes it.

Nom: DOnbe and Hikari x 5 (I doubt this will ever get a rate... I'm the only one pushing them it seems)

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Well the reason for the unknown of her 1st game was due to a poor release. It came out months after the GBA already released. But critics gave it rave reviews and people consider it one of the best GBC games to this day.

Anyway, lets rate!

Dixie Kong

Chance: 85%
The way K rool's reveal ended I think is a STRONG indicator that she is joining. She was planned for brawl, and she is quite popular. However, just because ISabelle is a unique/semi clone, I don't think Dixie will. Isabelle is the face of Animal Crossing. Sakurai wouldn't make the face of a series an echo. Dixie while she is popular is not the face of the series. She will be an echo, with her reveal trailer starting with of the K rool one ended, and be a chrome situation. Unique up B, , has a unique animation for carrying large object(looks like it is in the DKC games), and maybe unique animation for the dash. Plus the normal unique animations for idle and running.

Want: 100%
She deserves the spot, and will be a super fun character, even as an echo.

Shantae

Chance: 90%
With Shovel knight gone she is the only prime subject to be an indie rep(unless somehow Sakuari wants to put Reimu in from touhou, and that would be pretty lol but awesome.) She has a ton of circumstancal evidence which when added up really points to her having a very strong chance. I know people want to say because SK is an assist she cannot, but she would make a much better fighter and indie rep then him. She also is a ton more expressive then he is, which is a plus according to past sakurai interviews. She checks every box he has said for deciding a fighter. Wayforward is being unnaturally silent, she is not in any other indie fighting game, the sakurai room has a ton of stuff pointing to her, and more. I think she is a shoe in, but I don't want to put straight 100%

Want: 100%
Super want her. She is my most wanted character in this game, and I really hope she makes it.

Nom: DOnbe and Hikari x 5 (I doubt this will ever get a rate... I'm the only one pushing them it seems)

All those indie fighting games Shovel Knight has been showning up in that Shantae hasn't, have been released and made after 2015 when the roster for Ultimate was decided by Sakurai and the team. So I think that just increases her chances a whole lot more.

 

[skylanders fan]

Shantae
want abstaing

chance
nope nto happeing with a limited roster we won't see her as playable. If we get a 3rd party it won't be her for base roster sure there is a chance for DLC but I just don't see her making the cut for base roster.
2%

dixie kong
chance
30%
if they would add her I think it would had been during the King K Rool trailer unless she is a echo. And I don't know/think Sakurai would maek her a echo of diddy seeing what Isabell is

want
now that we got king k rool I am all for her but there is still one more kong I want more Funky Kong
90%


nominating
box theory x5

 

[Maxoxpower]

dixie kong
chance
50%

last nintendo all star left. thats it

another is 0%

 

[Souldin]

I know their days are over (and I missed rating one of them), but I find Magolor's results kind of interesting. People generally gave him lower chances from the seems of things, but the more I think about it... Magolor seems very comparable to Skull Kid. Popular characters from their series with only major antagonist role and since then only having cameo roles couple with both being from popular series; I think it'd be interesting to compare what people consider their chances to be. Anyway, that's a little off-topic at this point in time, let's get to rating Dixie and Shantae.

Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong series)
Chance: 85%

So as I mentioned before with Bandana Dee, Dixie was of the characters I put amongst my most likely to become playable. Again, never guaranteed, but I always considered her extremely likely. She's a prominent Donkey Kong and female Nintendo character with many playable roles, a design that clearly illustrates her main feature (her ponytail), is relevant, has potential to be implemented in a wide variety of ways (original, semi-clone or echo) and has move-set potential both in what she can do with her ponytail but also elements of the DK series yet to be represented through Diddy or Donkey Kong (Rambi and the other animals, oranges, barrel tossing, vine swings, etcetera). If not within the base roster, her prominence seems strong enough for her to be a strong DLC contender.​

Want: 70%

I have little personal attachment to Dixie Kong, but she's the sort of character I feel deserves to be playable in SSB. A rare Nintendo female character who was the lead character in her own game (Donkey Kong Country 3) as well as a regular playable character in her series and has made her return in mainline instalments with recent entries; Dixie comes across as one of the last well known Nintendo All-Stars left to be added. Her absence, particularly as a seeming focus on adding more female characters with the last SSB, strikes me as strange.​

​

Dixie and her ponytail has the potential to make a pretty fun character to play as; decently strong hits with a decent distance, ponytail helicopter always has charm to it and the animal friends of the DK series could be incorporated. There are many others I'd prefer, but if Dixie got in over them, I would completely understand the reasoning as to why.​

​

Shantae (Shantae series)
Chance: 32%

Nindies have been a big thing for Nintendo, particularly during the Wii U era, and Shantae presently stands as the most likely 3rd party guest character to fill that criteria. I say this both in a present and past tense, as I always felt she had slightly stronger chances than Shovel Knight, Quote or Commander Video (the others who come to mind when I think of potential Nindie guest characters) thanks to a longer legacy consisting of multiple games throughout Nintendo systems; plus a relationship with Capcom. Pirate's Curse received a physical release over in Japan, and if going by the Japanese Miiverse accounts, she seems somewhat popular over there; though not as much as over here of course.​

​

Multiple games featuring items and transformations give a decent pool to pull from, whilst her overall design and character would both fit in with the cast and stand-out. She is of course a 3rd party character though, chances always being blurry there, and from a non-Japanese company; there is no precedence for this in regards to SSB so a big unknown factor is at play. Likewise, due to her status as a Nindie, she might not be considered as big of a character or IP; particularly if another case like Cloud is considered wherein the importance is placed on the franchise and it's relation to gaming as a whole rather than a series relationship to Nintendo. An of course, smaller roster and what-not; her chances for base roster aren't huge and she could always join Shovel Knight in the Assist Trophy realm rather than being left as an option for DLC.​

​

On that note though, I frankly feel we won't get any more 3rd party characters in the base roster (outside of Echoes). I feel they would be the type saved up for DLC; to fit in with how the last SSB's DLC included quite a few 3rd party introductions as it's focus. Still, when it comes to non-Japanese 3rd party inclusions, I would actually put Shantae just behind Rayman at this stage.​

Want: 23%

You may have heard this already, but I'm not a fan of 3rd party inclusions. That said, there are many 3rd party games and characters I do like; I'd just rather they not be a consistent presence in the Nintendo All-Stars game I'm playing. Of course when I really like a character, I do get conflicted feelings on their potential inclusion. Bomberman was one such character, someone whose inclusion would have made me both happy and annoyed; Shantae is likewise one of those characters. I don't want her to get in as a playable character... but if the game had to have another 3rd party inclusion, either she or Rayman would be my top-pick.​

​

Whilst not a fan of the first Shantae game, I played the 3rd one and loved it. My brother and I then went on to play the fourth game for our YouTube channel (a bit shameless, but if you're curious, check out our Shantae: Half-Genie Hero playthrough here) and have recently begun playing through it's DLC (which has also started to be uploaded; check it out if you want to); enjoying the heck out of it. The Shantae series is fun and Shantae herself is one of the most enjoyable aspects of it; she's a fun and cute character with abilities incorporated beautifully into her design. She's the first character I think of when I think of Nindies, something Nintendo has continued to promote, and I think she'd be a good representative of such games. Her normal attacks have a strong basis in her hair whip, whilst her transformations into several animals and creatures can be applied to a lot of her respective specials.​

As per usual, aiming for a rating before this game releases:
Nominations x5: Fatal Frame Protagonist

 

[LaBeteNoire]

I was not aware of this, my bad. My other comments about Shantae's overall notability, third party slots, etc. still stand though. Also for what it's worth I forgot to mention that SK had an amiibo which helps to show how popular he is.

Yatchclub published the amiibo's tho, it has nothing to do with nintendo liking them more or having more faith in the product. His company footed the bill and paid Nintendo for the licence of the amiibo brand. Literally any party could request an amiibo and offer to pay for production and Nintendo would say yes as long as there wasn't something offensive about it. Has nothing to do with popularity, just ambition on part of the developer.

Anyway, for my thoughts.

Dixie:
Chances: 90%

Honestly she has been waiting in the wings for a long time and at this point I would say she is the last big Nintendo 1st party character not yet in the game

Want: 100%

I've been wanting her in this game since they added Diddy. She is a great character and certainly deserves the attention.

Shantae

Chances: 100% (in game in some form) 50/50 (as a fighter)

She is definitely in the game based on all the things surrounding her (you can check her board if you want to find out about that) but if she is a fighter is another story. For just as many qualities she has to support her being one, there are just as many things that could hold her back. She has enough to deserve to be in, but it all comes down to if Sakurai is interested enough in her (and personally i don't think Sakurai cares if a character is indie or not, just if he thinks they can work)

Want: 100%

Honesty, Shantae and Dixie are the two characters I want in this game (barring several certain pokemon which have no chance because out of 800+ only so many ever get attention) I am already happy with the game as it is, but the addition of these two would honestly make the game perfect for me. i would be hard pressed to really think of anything else I would want

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Technically, they’re giving four sentences for two ratings, so they’re complying with Rule 2. Still, it’s up to Phantom whether the ratings are counted or not.

In-depth arguments are always appreciated though!

Still though, calling Magolor the other guy? That's just a diss to Magolor... And also, the reasoning was bunched between the two. I just REALLY don't like this post. Should've been an abstain. But you are correct. Technically, it passes rule 2. I can't actually do anything about it, ah well. Sorry it took me so long to reply.

Rule 2 should go to maybe 3 or 4 sentences for each want and chance per character... Most of the posts I see are well thought out and at least 6 sentences, even to paragraphs.

want
now that we got king k rool I am all for her but there is still one more kong I want more Funky Kong
90%

Even though this is one sentence, it still FEELS better than that first one I mentioned. Not that this is a good reason either...

 

[SoupCanMafia]

Hoo boyo, this little nut barrel again.

Shantae: Chances: 50% Want: 100%
It's a mastahpiece
But really, I feel that as of right now, she has her personal best chance to come in as a Smash Bros fighter. Not necessarily the best chance out of all Third Parties, but at the same time, her possible inclusion chance is nothing to be sneezed at. With a history being on Nintendo consoles way back in 2002, Shantae can whip her hair, use an array of magic and weapons, and use her bellydancing to transform into a range of animals, ranging from the agile monkey to the aerial harpy. She is a kind-hearted, but sometimes hot headed half-genie whose job is to protect the small port town known as Scuttle Town from pirates, more often than not spear-headed by Risky Boots. It got to the point that a significant fanbase in Japan clamored for the release of Pirate's Curse over in Japan as well as Half-Genie Hero getting a physical release overseas as well as the USA.
There is a thing that should be said, however. There may be a chance that Sakurai's exclusively focusing on getting First Parties, though I feel that we may be getting a couple third parties in the next Smash Direct. Will it be Shantae? Will it be Geno? Or perhaps Banjo and Kazooie? I don't really know! However, truthfully, my reasoning for sticking Shantae at 50% is because I'm a bit stubborn like that and I feel that if we really were just getting a Shantae assist trophy, she could have easily been with Shovel Knight back in August 8th's Smash Direct, though that again could just be me thinking a bit much about this entire thing.

Dixie Kong: Chances: 75% Want: 50%
Needless to say, as a potential echo fighter of Diddy Kong, Dixie Kong has a lot going for her in terms of history and games, appearing as Diddy Kong's Player 2 back in Diddy's Kong-Quest, before being promoted to being Player 1 in Dixie Kong's Double Trouble. A nitpick could be how will they apply Dixie's Helicopter Hair into the game, though she could adopt Donkey's Up-B to fix this in a way it'd make sense. Truth be told, I actually don't truly know that much about Dixie Kong aside from being the Player 2 to Diddy's Player 1.
Personally, I have no attachment to Dixie Kong, but she seems to be an interesting enough character, that's why I put her want as a 50%. If I knew her a bit more, then I'd very likely be more willing to give her a higher (or lower) want score.

 

[Booper Blooper]

Shantae:
Chances: 45%
Pretty much all of my feelings on this have been said, Nintendo supporting indies (if you can call WayForward that at this point,) longer lifespan and relationship with Nintendo than Shovel Knight, more eastern appeal than Shovel Knight and doing at least well enough to get noticed on the ballot, etc. But the biggest thing to me is WayForward;s behavior. This is a company that often goes out of its way on social media to interact with its fans, and with nearly EVERY game, whether it be something like Rivals of Aether or just the next Shantae game, they tend to give an answer at least once to the question about it, albeit a form response if it is something they haven't announced, but not Smash. WayForward's talk about Smash has just been radio silence since a little after the ballot ended, and it's very odd. To me, this screams NDA, and that she's in the game in some aspect. In recent days I'm leaning towards Assist Trophy, but I do think playable is still very possible, hence 45%.

Want: 100%
Shantae is most wanted of the characters yet to get in, so I put her at 100%. She has an interesting personality, a design that would both standout but be at home with the rest of the Smash roster, and has the potential for a VERY interesting moveset wiht all of her transformations, her standard magic, and potentially even the Pirate gear. I'd love to see her in.

Dixie:
Chances: 70%
She's a long wanted character who is important to her franchise and had a revival right around the time of Smash 4. I think she has a very high chance, preferably as a semi-clone but I could see a Diddy echo as well.

Want: 60%
I like Dixie well enough, her games are fun and she's usually particularly fun in them. There aren't too many characters I really would be super excited to see, at least not because I want them, but Dixie would be pretty nice to have.

 

[Deleted member]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 75%
- Was planned as a tag-team partner with Diddy in Brawl
- Has made a breakthrough appearance in Tropical Freeze, which'll get re-released on the Switch
- Can be easily made by modifying 's model.

Want: 85%
My favorite Kong member with Cranky, and also a better throwback to DKC2 for me than Diddy.

Shantae

Chance: 15%

I find it kinda unfair to lump third-parties and indies together. Yes, they're not first-parties, but they don't fill the same niches.
And while I gave a low score in chance, I don't think we should completely rid off the possibilities of indies in Smash, remember there was a Commander Video trophy in the Wii U version of Smash 4, and that Sakurai has very recently stated he plays to indie games regularly.
Yes, I know it should not be taken as a fact that an indie character is guaranteed to figure in Smash, but it may still be an indication that both Sakurai and Nintendo might not be that restrictive to this idea.

Want: 100%

She's among my top favorite video game characters ever, would fit like a glove among the Smash cast, would bring tons of new gameplay possibilities, neat selection of music tracks to listen to while smashing, and ultimately would open the gate for indie representation.

Reposting these previous rates of mine as my opinion on them haven't changed even given the current circumstances.
I'd just add that Isabelle gives me hope for a non-echo Dixie.


Noms:
Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 85%
Diddy's reworked jab certainly is suspicious and she's likely next in line for another DK character. I don't see Funky Kong making it.

Want: 45%
Sure why not, so we'll be set for DK reps for a good amount of years. Would be a bit higher if she would be original.

Shantae
Chance: 10%
If Shovel Knight didn't get in as playable, chances are she also won't. She may be more popular in Japan but I'll assume that popularity came to late as I haven't heard about her doing well in the ballot over there or anything. Also I don't see why she would be the first western cartoony platformer third party to get in instead of characters like Banjo Kazooie, Rayman or Crash all of whom are arguably more iconic and poular worldwide.

Want: ABSTAIN

The prince (Katamari) x5

 

[AngrySun88]

Dixie

Chances: 70%
Want: 100%

Dixie is most likely going to be an echo of Diddy, or at most a semi-clone like Isabelle. She's a relevant character and surely Sakruai would have thought about her when he put K Rool in Ultimate. There's no reason why she shouldn't be included in the base roster.

Shantae

Chances: 55%
Want: 100%

To say that "Shantae can't get in because Shovel Knight is only an assist trophy" is downright laughable. I'd argue that the two characters are at the same levels of popularity and Shantae is popular enough in Japan to get figures made for her. The haters also always forget about Shantae's long history with Nintendo as her first game came out on the GBC back in 2002 and has been console exclusive until Half-Genie Hero whereas SK only has one game to his name while being on multiple platforms as opposed to only Nintendo. SK being an assist trophy only helps her chances. It tells us that Sakurai is thinking about indie characters this time.

Shantae also checks the boxes that Sakruai is looking for in a character, particularly that she's very expressive and would have one of the most unique movesets in the game.

Then let's look at all the circumstantial evidence, which Shantae probably has more of than any other character. Jammie's mode hinting at Smash similar to Rodin, the trailer being a blatant copy of Smash trailers complete with a reference to EVERYONE IS HERE, Matt Bozon/WayForward's possible NDA, their refusal to discuss Smash Bros despite being so vocal about it during the ballot, and her not appearing in other indie fighting games while Shovel Knight has.

Shantae would also be the easiest third party/indie character to get. WayForward would probably let Sakurai use her for free, which is a contrast for the legal hoops Sakurai will have to go through for characters like Geno, Banjo, Rayman, and others.

I think she is in the game in some form. Whether that's as an assist trophy, base roster, or DLC remains to be seen.

 

[BlueMagician]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 65%
She's been a long time and popular request, and it also seems like she'd be easier to make as a fighter. I've been guessing for a while that she'd be a semi-clone and with Isabelle it looks like that's still a reasonable possibility. As for why she wasn't in the K. Rool trailer, that could be as simple as them wanting to introduce K. Rool the rival. The only real thing against her is a lot of competition for what was never a lot of space for newcomers.

Want: 96%
I wanted her more than K. Rool, and now I am more hopeful now that he's in. Not 100 because I want semi-clone or unique over echo, and because I have a few others that I want more.

Shantae

Chance: 6%
She had a fair bit of Ballot support and is well known among those who follow indie games, and it helps that her home series has a lot of entries. However, we already got a new third party, raising the hurdle for any more, and she just has a lot of competition in general. I also think the messages from the devs are just tongue-in-cheek references rather than hints. I think it's more likely that she appears as an Assist Trophy or even normal trophy as it's possible that her series needs to be bigger.

Want: 60%
I like her and I like her games, there's a lot of thought and creativity in her games. Her moveset could be fun, though it could go a less interesting direction if they're not careful. Overall, would be happy but I'm not straining for her inclusion either.

Nominations:
Rowlet x5

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 85%
She's got everything a character really needs, she's decently popular (especially now ridley and k rool are out of the way), she's relevant with tropical freeze and isabelle has shown us that the ballot isn't the only thing that matters, she could also be a diddy semi-clone ala Isabelle which would make her much easier to develop. Even if she skips the base roster I think she's got a great shot for dlc, especially if a new DK game is on the way.

Want: 100%
She's my most wanted if you couldn't tell lmao

Shantae:

Chance: 10%
If shovel knight couldn't get in idk why she would tbh when he's probably more popular and his game was generally more impactful, she's assist material at best imo.

Want: 5%
meh.

 

[Cabbagehead]

She didnt BECOME an indie character, that makes no sense given WF has ALWAYS been an indie company.

Duly noted. I'll edit my initial post.

 

[Cabbagehead]

Double post. My bad.

 

[GoodGrief741]

WayForward wasn’t always indie though...

They used to do big business with Capcom and worked for hire. They were a small studio, but not an ‘indie’.

 

[zeonie888]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 50% With K.rool getting in I think that Dixie might have a chance to be a good addition to the roster.

Want: 75% I liked how she uses her hair and could be interested in how she uses it in her moveset.

Shante

Chance: 15% I'm not too optimistic with her chances getting in.

Want: 70% A half-genie with a lot of potential moveset thanks to her transformations. I wouldn't mind seeing how she plays.

 

[Jave]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

She's been around since Brawl's planning stages so with Echo Fighters now being a thing I find it hard to believe she won't be in at least as an Echo. Heck, a semi-clone moveset wouldn't be difficult for her to make at all. If not base roster, she'll likely make it later through a free update or DLC. I also love her design and the games she's starred in, so she's one of my most wanted.

Shantae
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

My most wanted character, no question. She fits Smash perfectly and has amazing moveset potential with the magic, the pirate gear and transformations. I feel there's way too much circumstantial evidence around her for her NOT to be in, so if she's not playable, then an AT, and if not that, then a trophy in the gallery. But I do believe she has to be in in some form. The 50% in my rank is her chance of being playable, which could really go either way.

 

[SoupCanMafia]

I've already rated my character choices, but I must address one constant criticism that I feel is a bit unfair to Shantae and the rest of the Indie characters.
"Oh, Shovel Knight only got in as an assist trophy and Shantae's less popular than him, therefore, Shantae won't get in!" It feels like nothing more than moving a goalpost or putting a piece of bait on a fishing hook, because of said "more popular" Indie character getting snubbed and being regulated to an assist trophy. There could be a multitude of reasons why Shovel Knight was regulated to an assist trophy, some of which could go back into the root of Sakurai's design principles when it comes to a potential fighter. Could it be that having Shovel Knight being accurate to his native game be a bit too much, with his Relics being limited use unless he collects magic? Could it be the lack of games in his native series to expand upon his arsenal? It could really be a lot of things that is up to interpretation.
This little schpiel is not against the idea that Shantae is gonna get the shaft as well because of the focus towards first party characters or the expansion of already-established third party company's presence in the game. Because that's a legitimate argument that goes against her inclusion and it makes sense in the grand scheme of character speculation. But to say that Shantae, or any Indie character like Quote or Gunvolt can't get in just because Shovel Knight's an Assist Trophy is nothing short of embarrassing and insulting, towards fans of Shovel Knight and every other Indie franchises.

 

[Kotor]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 60%
Want: 80%

She has a lot more going for her that she can be her own character rather than Diddy's echo. Sure, Dixie could share some moves with Diddy, but I really hope we get a similar situation to what Isabelle ultimately became. If Metroid can double dip on newcomers, why not Donkey Kong Country? Dixie for semi-clone please!

Shantae
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

Okay, so when I hear the words "History with Nintendo" attributed with Shantae, I look into what she's done and yeah she's been around since 2002. But what has she done in those 16 years? She fell to obscurity for a good 8 years because the GBA released 1 year earlier. Critics may have liked the game, but all eyes were on Nintendo's shiny new toy. Wayforward did try. They did try to make a second game during those 8 years but both attempts failed because no publisher wanted to get involved. I guess a similar situation happened with Half-Genie Hero that it had to be funded through Kickstarter?

If we're gonna play the "History with Nintendo" card to try to get someone in, then Phoenix Wright deserves to get in more than Shantae. His franchise has done a lot more in that same amount of time than Shantae ever did. And unlike Shantae which expanded to Xbox and Playstation, the Ace Attorney franchise remained faithful to Nintendo only expanding to mobile. Also, I was there when Wayforward pushed hard for Shantae to be added in during the Ballot. It's one thing for fans to rally behind someone, but Wayforward doing it themselves telling people to vote for Shantae, that didn't leave a good impression on me. The games can be fun and all, but Shantae never really had that big break. Her games never reached the critical acclaim like what Cave Story, Minecraft, and Shovel Knight achieved to name a few. Her games don't have infamy like what Mighty No. 9 accomplished.

Nominations
Black Knight as a boss character x5

 

[Marcello691]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 80%

Dixie Kong is the only Nintendo All-star left, she was one of the first female playable characters in Nintendo's history and is still well known because of the huge sales and popularity of the DK series back then. It just makes sense to have her playable in smash ultimate now that we also have k.rool and she was already considered for brawl. She could be revealed alongside a tropical freeze stage in the next smash direct as a semi-clone similar to Isabelle. I would find it really odd if dkc tropical freeze wouldn't get any representation.

Want: 100%
Dixie Kong is such a cool character, I loved playing her in DKC2/3 and I was so happy to see her returning to the mainline DK series when she was announced for tropical freeze!
She is important to her series and is not a damsel in distress! She was never kidnapped by K.rool like Diddy or Donkey, she saved them. I'm so glad K.rool joined the cast, but it will be only complete if Dixie is playable as well! I don't know why Sakurai and Nintendo are still ignoring DK in smash, it's such a big series and it's not difficult to create movesets for the dk crew. And that Klaptrap assist trophy is such a disgrace to be honest, seems to me like Sakurai didn't bother to make a cool assist trophy for the dk series, he could have used one of the animal buddies like rambi, but we get the stage hazard klaptrap from the dk stages...If Metroid can have 4 reps then why not DK!?

I don't care for Shantae, I played the game on switch and it was boring and repetitive, don't know how it got such a good rating on metacritic. She also fights with her hair, but I prefer Dixie Kong then who looks so much cooler!
So Shantae Chance: 10%, want: 0%

 

[Koopaul]

I hate the term All-Star because the definition is incredibly vague. People seem to bend it to suit their character that they are rooting for. "My character is an All-Star because such and such." Anyway...

Dixie Kong
Chance: 45%
She would probably get in as an echo which would make me annoyed seeing how Isabelle is a semi-clone despite not having any signature abilities like Dixie has.
Want: 100%
You better believe it. She's one of my favorite Kongs. More than Diddy.

Shantae
Chance: 3%
I think a lot of you are overestimating her chances. Third party pickings are usually tight and reserved for the biggest and best like Cloud and Pac-Man. Shantae doesn't come close.
Want: 30%
She'd be a fun addition. Wouldn't care either way.

 

[Deleted member]

WayForward wasn’t always indie though...

They used to do big business with Capcom and worked for hire. They were a small studio, but not an ‘indie’.

And Yachtclub did business with Nintendo? Does that make Shovel Knight not Indie?

The Problem here is "indie" doesn't really have a proper definition.
And Indie to me is described as "As game of an original IP developed without the aid/input of a major publisher"
A Publisher can come in to purely publish the game (think Shovel Knight being Published by Nintendo in Japan), but the development costs and all decisions on design were made by the Developer.

Shantae on the GBC is a grey area I will give you that, as its currently unknown how much Capcom actually did, Did they just publish it? did they fund part of the development? we really don't know.
And all of Wayforward's work for high gigs wouldn't be Indie games because they are beholden to publishers and whatnot (like Ducktales having to answer to disney)
But all other Future games are without a doubt Indie, as they were developed without any help from publishers. Only bringing on smaller publishers for various physical releases after launch date.

What is your definition of "Indie"

 

[Fire Tactician]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 40%
She's probably a top priority Echo or could be an easy semi-clone of Diddy Kong. She's ridiculously requested, so she's bound to show up at some point. My hesitation and lower scoring lies in the fact that we might not get many more characters, so maybe she barely missed it, but I wouldn't be surprised if she does show up down the line as DLC.

Want: 30%
I think I'd like her more than Diddy, but I'm not a DK fan. She's better than lots of other choices, but I personally have no attachment.
---
Shantae

Chance: 10%
I'm being more generous than I used to be with her. Seeing Shovel Knight makes me realize that indies are at least on Sakurai's radar when it comes to Smash representation. While that doesn't convince me that they'll ever be playable, it makes their chances at least plausible. Shantae seems to be a top choice with Shovel Knight out of the way for an indie rep, so who knows?

Want: 40%
I have no attachment to her at all, but from what I've seen, she looks like she'd be fun to play. I guess she could warrant that coveted first indie spot, so I'm not opposed to seeing her. However, my personal opinion is tempered by both my lack of exposure to her and by me wanting more 1st party reps overall (and would prefer a few other 3rd party ones if I had to pick one).

Edit- x5 nominations for Reinhardt gets a trophy.

 

[KeyOh]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 65%
Dixie is an interesting character given the current state of the game. She was pretty popular during the lead-up to Smash 4's release as well as during the Smash Ballot. However, she never seemed to be quite as popular as K. Rool was. Of course, she was still incredibly prominent in the grand scheme of things. Given her popularity and relevance to the DK series, as well as the fact that Isabelle has shown that we can still have semi-clone style characters, she seems like a character that was likely on Sakurai's radar. However, I feel like if she was a non-echo newcomer she would have been included in K. Rool's trailer, as that just makes too much sense. So, at this point, it seems likely that she would be implemented as an echo fighter of Diddy if she was made playable. Something about that just seems off to me though. She's pretty similar to Isabelle, in that she seems like too important of a character in her series to be given the echo fighter label. If this game didn't have such a short development cycle I'd be incredibly confident in Dixie's inclusion despite her not appearing in K. Rool's trailer, but these current circumstances make me unsure of the girl.
Want: 70%
Dixie is one of the more recognizable Nintendo characters that hasn't reached playable status in Smash yet. It's fitting for her to be added in a Smash title that seems to be focused on fulfilling fan desires. Personally, I don't have a massive interest in her. She's cool and the DKC games are great, but she's not exactly my favourite character. I'm also not particularly thrilled with her potentially being an echo fighter. Not a fan of Diddy's moveset and I feel that she has enough unique qualities to justify being a unique character.

Shantae
Chance: 5%
Shantae is a character that I have little confidence in currently. She was never really considered to be a potential Smash newcomer until the ballot period. During that time, we saw both her and Shovel Knight rise to prominence as the major fan choices for indie reps. Now we've seen Shovel Knight's appearance as an Assist Trophy and I'm guessing Shantae has been implemented in a similar fashion. At the current point, Smash's playable third party reps are all incredibly recognizable icons (Bayonetta being a special exception). Sakurai will likely want to maintain this standard, which means these smaller third party characters will have a hard time ever reaching playable status. I have a feeling that we're seeing third party characters be given important roles as ATs and bosses now as a sort of consolation to the fans of their series. There's always a chance, I just don't see it happening.
Want: 20%
Shantae has a really passionate fan base and I appreciate that. However, I personally feel as though playable third party characters should be almost exclusively from massive game series that have some historical significance. I've played Pirate's Curse and it was a pretty solid title, but I'm not incredibly interested in the series in general. I wouldn't really be bothered if she didn't make the roster. If she did, I'd be happy for her fans and that's about it.

 

[Freelance Spy]

A lot of people seem to think that Shovel Knight being an assist trophy completely removes Shantae's chances. This is a leap away from logic if I have ever seen one and there's evidence to suggest him being an AT actually improves Shantae's chances.

First I'd like to remind everyone that upon Shovel Knight's arriving announcement, there was no mention that he was an independent character. He was placed in between big name Nintendo characters, not even a hint of his inclusion being anything out of the ordinary. The same thing happened on his blog post, no mention of him being anything "lesser" than popular characters such as Bomberman, Lyndis, or Waluigi. So either Sakurai doesn't make a distinction between indies and triple A characters, or more likely, he doesn't care as long as they are popular.
Has there ever been a confirmed case of a character choking out another's chances? Much less an assist trophy blocking out a playable character from entry? That makes less sense than saying she didn't do well in the polls despite her topping most of them (I have actually seen this argument floating around).
Essentially, there's no tangible precedent suggesting that SK's involvement detracts from shantae's chances at all.
I wish people didn't base the crux of their entire argument over something so shallow.

Furthermore, Yacht club games has given the green light to allow Shovel Knight to be in other, smash clone games, most recently and possibly most notably Rivals of Aether. These games compete with Smashbros to a degree and might be a legal factor in determining the degree of his appearance in smash. Wayforward has notably been contacted by the same developers that YCG has for the same games, but Wayforward remained silent.
You may have heard that shantae has some evidence that WF is under some kind of NDA, and that there are hints and references that strongly imply that Shantae will have some form of representation in smash. If Shantae was being kept under an NDA, it's fair to assume that she'd also be under some kind of NCC agreement, basically a contract that makes sure you don't contribute to competition. If that is the case, then it would make sense that Shovel knight couldn't be playable because of how many crossovers he has been in.

Fun fact, the ballot only had 1.8 million votes according to sakurai. I guess casual audiences didn't care much about it then? By that number, you'd need 18000 votes to guarantee a spot on the top 100 placement. Here's proof that Shantae's kickstarter got more than that in number of backers. Of course, you can't say that the exact number of people who paid for Shantae's game to come out would've voted for her in the ballot. Then again, voting is free, so now those polls are starting to make sense that Shantae has been topping them. People acting like she is irrelevant but someone like Geno is need to re-examine their stance, Shantae is just as popular a series as some of our 3rd party "shoe ins" the only difference is that Wayforward refuses to release sales data. Don't think that's a bad sign either, as other companies like Konami have done the same. I couldn't find anything on Catslevania past the NES one for instance.


In addition there is a lot of circumstantial evidence, like the exeggutor blog picture alluding to Shantae Nab, which is a shantae guest appearance in a WARIOWARE game. The warioware minigame even speaks highly of Matt Bozon, creator of Shantae. Basically, Diddy and Bayo both have strong similarities to Shantae, Bayonetta being able to transform herself into animals like Shanate and attacking with her hair as well. Diddy is also on the left side of the screen like Shantae's monkey form in the mini game, and bayonetta is on the right, where Shantae reverts to human form.
These character choices for this picture could very well be a coincidence, but I'd argue where there's smoke there's fire. Shantae has a lot of smoke surrounding smash, more so than any other character that I can find.

The last thing that needs to be mentioned is the frigging chairs. I can't find the link, but someone confirmed the couch fabric to be eastern like where Shantae's games are based alongside the plant in the room which also comes from the area. Also there's a silver gravy dish on the shelf, those are shaped like a genie lamp (shrug).
That's at least more convincing than the chairs standing for a character's color Scheme (which would fit Shantae, Skull Kid, or Karate Joe respectively.) The last room hint actually featured real hints like the Barrel, ladde, and wodden wall, so this room being Eastern themed is a better coincidence than some gaudy chairs.


With all of that.

Shantae:
Chances: 100%
There should be no question that she is in the game, only how she is implemented at this point. If you paid attention you'd say the same. I'm betting on DLC personally, but I'll take an Assist Trophy if I must.

Want: 100% (wasn't this obvious?)
I didn't use to care about Shantae, my original favorite character was Skull Kid and he remains to be my top Nintendo pick for smash. This changed when the ballot was announced and I started seeing Shantae's name everywhere. I just barely recognized her from my childhood and saw that she was independent and could use the exposure. I find it hard to agree with people when they say a character 'deserves' to be in, especially when they are from a dead series or aren't even a protagonist (I still like Geno). Shantae would benefit the most from the exposure smash brings, and would likely change a lot of people's attitude on her.
It pains me to see people writing her off with little explanation. She's not irrelevant, she still makes Nintendo money. If her game was release a few years sooner she'd be a "classic must have character" and it deeply bothers me her circumstances were not as lucky as similar characters.

Dixie Kong:
Chances: 75% I'm convinced that she'll be an echo.
Want: 20% I actually wanted her over the other DK characters, on account of her game being the only one I've personally played. Still, I'm wary of adding a diddy echo since I hate fighting him so much and I don't want to do it ever.

 

[StormC]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 60%
Want: 75%

I genuinely don't know what to think about Dixie, honestly. She was definitely more popular than the likes of Dark Samus on the ballot. She could be an echo or perhaps Sakurai was unable to work her hair recovery in a satisfying manner as an echo (since even Chrom's recovery shares an animation with Ike, instead of having a new move made up), while the possibility of a semi-clone exists with Isabelle now, I'm personally not banking on it with all of the competition surrounding her. She's a popular character with relevancy and history who was once considered in some form, but also, I have to contest a bit that DK is "finally getting some love." Truthfully, I'm led to believe that it's more about K. Rool getting some love. We have a Klaptrap AT, the amazing Gangplank Galleon remix, and of course, a fully playable King K. Rool. I think Sakurai is so far responding to the massive outcry for the King on the ballot than the DK franchise in general. Still, Dixie has a lot going for her, and I'll be somewhat shocked if she isn't in as at least an echo.

Dixie has been in my top 5 wants since Smash 4. She's my favorite Kong to play as in the original trilogy and DKC2/3 are some of my favorite games in general. It's pretty ridiculous that we've had to wait five Smash games to get both K. Rool and Dixie, but I hope things are finally turning around now. Even as someone who had K. Rool as my most wanted, the DK representation will feel a little empty with just the three boys. I'll take anything, echo, semi-clone, whatever, just please put her in the game so the series can finally get its core cast like Mario, Zelda, and Kirby have had since Brawl.

Shantae
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Genuinely don't think indie characters, let alone western indies, are on Sakurai's radar. When he added Cloud, he talked about how popular Final Fantasy is globally, and that it was one of the few Japanese series with that sort of global popularity not in Smash already. Shantae has a passionate internet fanbase, and that's about it. I don't look too deeply into the NDA/"hints" at Shantae being playable. I actually think being an Assist Trophy is pretty plausible, but playable? I don't think it's impossible but I would be absolutely shocked if it happened. I genuinely think the first western third party character in Smash will be either Banjo-Kazooie (who have special circumstances as ex-Nintendo characters) or Crash Bandicoot (big selling series that was popular in Japan).

I don't want indies in Smash and I've said as much many times. As long as we still have the pretense that this is primarily a Nintendo crossover, the third parties should at least have a high bar to clear for entry in terms of prestige/history. Bayonetta was already pushing it but is more or less a Nintendo character nowadays. I don't have anything against Shantae, her games, or her fanbase, but I would rather not see Smash inch closer to a generic video game crossover.

 

[Shinuto]

WayForward wasn’t always indie though...

They used to do big business with Capcom and worked for hire. They were a small studio, but not an ‘indie’.

thats indie though. WF's games appear in indie sections and advertisements on Nintendo "Ninide" sales.

 

[Fire Tactician]

A lot of people seem to think that Shovel Knight being an assist trophy completely removes Shantae's chances. This is a leap away from logic if I have ever seen one and there's evidence to suggest him being an AT actually improves Shantae's chances.

I'm personally not attached to Shantae in any way, but that was my thought too. I'd have given her a 0-5% chance previously because I wasn't sure if indies would ever be recognized by Smash. Now I'll give her a solid 10%, since I don't know if they're actually eligible for Smash, but Shovel Knight proves that they're at least looking at indies in some capacity and she's a leading choice among them. Sorry I couldn't give her a higher score, but to me, 10% is monumental for an indie character and I'd have given her at least a 20% had we not been so close to launch with the roster additions slowly shrinking.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 25%
Want: 10%

She could still happen, and if Isabelle is anything to go by, she can get semi clone status. Personallu I want Funky more.

Shantae

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

She'll likely get the same fate as Shovel Knight, as an AT. If any Indie gets in. It should be Reimu as she's actually iconic, at least in Japan.

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 70% - I can see her probably getting in as a semi-clone of Diddy Kong, or with just a few moves borrowed. I know Sakurai originally planned for her to appear alongside Diddy in Brawl, as we have all learned from the data that was found.

Want: 50% - I don't really care one way or the other, but it would be cool to see her alongside the other Kongs. I think it would have been cool to see how that Diddy + Dixie tag team would have worked in Brawl.

Shantae:

Chance: 50% - I'm not really sure about her, but I can't ignore the fact that WayForward ignores all the Smash Bros. tweets sent to them, or answers with some copy+paste reply, despite having hyped up their fans for the Smash Ballot with Smash concepts and such. It's possible, however, that she may be an assist trophy. As she is a third-party indie, Sakurai may go for more fan-requested reps / bigger names, but it's not impossible. The Shovel Knight argument is bad imo.

Want: Abstain - I don't care whether she's in or not, I've never played her games.

 

[GoodGrief741]

And Yachtclub did business with Nintendo? Does that make Shovel Knight not Indie?

The Problem here is "indie" doesn't really have a proper definition.
And Indie to me is described as "As game of an original IP developed without the aid/input of a major publisher"
A Publisher can come in to purely publish the game (think Shovel Knight being Published by Nintendo in Japan), but the development costs and all decisions on design were made by the Developer.

Shantae on the GBC is a grey area I will give you that, as its currently unknown how much Capcom actually did, Did they just publish it? did they fund part of the development? we really don't know.
And all of Wayforward's work for high gigs wouldn't be Indie games because they are beholden to publishers and whatnot (like Ducktales having to answer to disney)
But all other Future games are without a doubt Indie, as they were developed without any help from publishers. Only bringing on smaller publishers for various physical releases after launch date.

What is your definition of "Indie"

Oh, I agree with you. Maybe I phrased myself poorly, I was just saying that WayForward and Shantae weren’t always indies, but they very much are now.

A lot of people seem to think that Shovel Knight being an assist trophy completely removes Shantae's chances. This is a leap away from logic if I have ever seen one and there's evidence to suggest him being an AT actually improves Shantae's chances.

First I'd like to remind everyone that upon Shovel Knight's arriving announcement, there was no mention that he was an independent character. He was placed in between big name Nintendo characters, not even a hint of his inclusion being anything out of the ordinary. The same thing happened on his blog post, no mention of him being anything "lesser" than popular characters such as Bomberman, Lyndis, or Waluigi. So either Sakurai doesn't make a distinction between indies and triple A characters, or more likely, he doesn't care as long as they are popular.
Has there ever been a confirmed case of a character choking out another's chances? Much less an assist trophy blocking out a playable character from entry? That makes less sense than saying she didn't do well in the polls despite her topping most of them (I have actually seen this argument floating around).
Essentially, there's no tangible precedent suggesting that SK's involvement detracts from shantae's chances at all.
I wish people didn't base the crux of their entire argument over something so shallow.

Furthermore, Yacht club games has given the green light to allow Shovel Knight to be in other, smash clone games, most recently and possibly most notably Rivals of Aether. These games compete with Smashbros to a degree and might be a legal factor in determining the degree of his appearance in smash. Wayforward has notably been contacted by the same developers that YCG has for the same games, but Wayforward remained silent.
You may have heard that shantae has some evidence that WF is under some kind of NDA, and that there are hints and references that strongly imply that Shantae will have some form of representation in smash. If Shantae was being kept under an NDA, it's fair to assume that she'd also be under some kind of NCC agreement, basically a contract that makes sure you don't contribute to competition. If that is the case, then it would make sense that Shovel knight couldn't be playable because of how many crossovers he has been in.

Fun fact, the ballot only had 1.8 million votes according to sakurai. I guess casual audiences didn't care much about it then? By that number, you'd need 18000 votes to guarantee a spot on the top 100 placement. Here's proof that Shantae's kickstarter got more than that in number of backers. Of course, you can't say that the exact number of people who paid for Shantae's game to come out would've voted for her in the ballot. Then again, voting is free, so now those polls are starting to make sense that Shantae has been topping them. People acting like she is irrelevant but someone like Geno is need to re-examine their stance, Shantae is just as popular a series as some of our 3rd party "shoe ins" the only difference is that Wayforward refuses to release sales data. Don't think that's a bad sign either, as other companies like Konami have done the same. I couldn't find anything on Catslevania past the NES one for instance.


In addition there is a lot of circumstantial evidence, like the exeggutor blog picture alluding to Shantae Nab, which is a shantae guest appearance in a WARIOWARE game. The warioware minigame even speaks highly of Matt Bozon, creator of Shantae. Basically, Diddy and Bayo both have strong similarities to Shantae, Bayonetta being able to transform herself into animals like Shanate and attacking with her hair as well. Diddy is also on the left side of the screen like Shantae's monkey form in the mini game, and bayonetta is on the right, where Shantae reverts to human form.
These character choices for this picture could very well be a coincidence, but I'd argue where there's smoke there's fire. Shantae has a lot of smoke surrounding smash, more so than any other character that I can find.

The last thing that needs to be mentioned is the frigging chairs. I can't find the link, but someone confirmed the couch fabric to be eastern like where Shantae's games are based alongside the plant in the room which also comes from the area. Also there's a silver gravy dish on the shelf, those are shaped like a genie lamp (shrug).
That's at least more convincing than the chairs standing for a character's color Scheme (which would fit Shantae, Skull Kid, or Karate Joe respectively.) The last room hint actually featured real hints like the Barrel, ladde, and wodden wall, so this room being Eastern themed is a better coincidence than some gaudy chairs.


With all of that.

Shantae:
Chances: 100%
There should be no question that she is in the game, only how she is implemented at this point. If you paid attention you'd say the same. I'm betting on DLC personally, but I'll take an Assist Trophy if I must.

Want: 100% (wasn't this obvious?)
I didn't use to care about Shantae, my original favorite character was Skull Kid and he remains to be my top Nintendo pick for smash. This changed when the ballot was announced and I started seeing Shantae's name everywhere. I just barely recognized her from my childhood and saw that she was independent and could use the exposure. I find it hard to agree with people when they say a character 'deserves' to be in, especially when they are from a dead series or aren't even a protagonist (I still like Geno). Shantae would benefit the most from the exposure smash brings, and would likely change a lot of people's attitude on her.
It pains me to see people writing her off with little explanation. She's not irrelevant, she still makes Nintendo money. If her game was release a few years sooner she'd be a "classic must have character" and it deeply bothers me her circumstances were not as lucky as similar characters.

Dixie Kong:
Chances: 75%
Want: Abstain. I've typed enough already.

Do you really think that Nintendo PR would have referred to Shovel Knight as ‘lesser’, or differentiated him in any way from other Assists just due to his indie status? No way. That’s not indicative of whether Sakurai or the devs feel there is a distinction or not.

thats indie though. WF's games appear in indie sections and advertisements on Nintendo "Ninide" sales.

Check my post again, I was talking in the past tense. Shantae is very much an indie character nowadays.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Dixie Kong want: 80%
Semi-clones are still a thing and she could be a great one with disjointed tilts, smashes and aerials thanks to her hair. I'm a big fan of DKC2 and I recently bought Tropical Freeze too, so I'm more than familiar with the character who I just see as a deservir all-star. Also King K. Rool has moves he uses against her in the original boss battles, come on!

Shantae want: 12.5%
Although she's not a character I'm particularly interested in, I regret what I said about her (and Shovel Knight) back in the Smash 4 DLC days as it just sounded like reactionary entitlement because I didn't like the idea of an indie character, so it would be funny just to annoy my old self. At the same time I'd be perfectly fine with her as an Assist, and she's not really a character I would strongly consider... at least it seems like she could have interesting fighting abilities.

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x1
Concept: box hypothesis x4

Edit 3018-11-31: fixed a typo (yeah I hate typos even from old posts)

 

[Shinuto]

Oh, I agree with you. Maybe I phrased myself poorly, I was just saying that WayForward and Shantae weren’t always indies, but they very much are now.



Do you really think that Nintendo PR would have referred to Shovel Knight as ‘lesser’, or differentiated him in any way from other Assists just due to his indie status? No way. That’s not indicative of whether Sakurai or the devs feel there is a distinction or not.



Check my post again, I was talking in the past tense. Shantae is very much an indie character nowadays.

Yeah and she was always an indie. Indie bac then was pretty much impossible to self publish.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Dixie want: 0% (8-10*)

I don't really get the demand for this character. Maybe she has more personality in the latest games. Otherwise, she's just another monkey, but with some hair tricks.

Shantae want: 0% (4-10*)

The moveset(s) I've seen for her on this board haven't interested me much, but she looks fun in SSF2. She might be a little to sexual for Smash, though.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters