Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Pennate]

Rayman:

Chance: 40%

Want: 10%

I may edit in reasonings later.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x3
Ganon x2

 

[Awakining]

Rayman:

Chance: 40%

Rayman has the right combination of acknowledgement and popularity to give him a decent chance in Smash, but, although it's become more difficult to judge the likeliness of third-party characters, I'd wager that there are at least a few other representatives of his kind who are considered more important by the development team.

Want: 20%

Speaking honestly, I have absolutely no desire for this character to be included. However, I consider him a better choice than most third-party characters, and his inclusion would make a lot of fans happy, so I wouldn't be very displeased to see him join the fray.

Nominations:

x2 Incineroar
x2 Masked Man
x1 Porky Minch

 

[Arcanir]

Rayman
Chance: 40%
Ubisoft does have a good relationship with Nintendo, and getting a trophy in Smash 4 is still something most other third parties can't attest to. How, third parties by nature are not hard locks due to the amount of work it takes to get them in, and he does lack popularity in Japan relative to other third parties that could be considered.

Want: 55%
I did like Rayman 2, but there are other characters I'm more interested in.

 

[Draxis]

Rayman:

Chance:50%

Yeah more of a 50/50 chance for him, he was acknowledge in smash 4 thanks to the trophy he had and ubisoft seems to be in good term with Nintendo so it possible he might show up.

Want:70%

He is my fifth wanted character and childhood,it would make me happy to see him in the game.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Rayman want: 5%

His moveset doesn't thrill me, but his aesthetic fits smash really well, and there would probably be a great Etika World Network reaction video.

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

 

[ssbashworld]

Rayman

Chances: 65%
Ubisoft and Nintendo seem to be working nicely together recently so there is a decent shot but I can also see him not being added with us instead getting someone who would generate more hype or someone from the companies with reps already in game or someone from companies who you can argue are closer with nintendo and also have no rep like Koei Tecmo.

Want: 60%
Would much prefer Banjo or Crash or even Ryu Hayabusa but Rayman would be a nice realistic pick if we can not get any of those.

Nomination: Ayane X5

 

[Pacack]

Ah, that was my edit, actually (I updated the noms list for Phantom.) I was paraphrasing your meaning, as I thought I understood where you were going with it. But I see the meaning you were going for, so I'll change the entry to include those specifics in the update tonight.

Thanks a bunch!

 

[TechPowah]

Rayman as a playable character:
Chance: 60% - Trophies aside, Ninty and Ubi have been buddy systeming for a while, between Mario/Rabbids and Rayman Legends. I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to go for him as their big rep for characters from Europe.

Want: 100% - YES. I'm personally pulling for Crash, but Rayman would be right under him for how bad I want him, plus it's been a good while coming anyway.

Predictions:
Krystal <Star Fox> as a playable character: 20% Chance, 35% Want

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown as a playable character x2
A playable character from Advance Wars x2
Blastoise <Pokemon> as a playable character x1

 

[Tikivoy]

Rayman:

Chance: 39% That trophy gives me some hope, at least in regards to him being considered.

Want: 76%. Honestly, i've put more time into rabbids games than the recent Rayman games, but i'd still like his inclusion, especially since his newer games have fun stage and music potential.

Prediction:

Krystal: chance: 22% chance, 26% want.


Nomination:

Concept: Megaman 11 stage x5.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the late ending, just got back to college, met some people for dinner and time flew by.

Rayman
80% Chance

I know people might say the Rabbids hurt his chances, but I fail to see that. If anything they have a null effect, the rabbids have grown distinct from Raymans series. Full disclaimer I don’t mind the rabbids, I love Rabbids Go Home and think it is one of the most underrated games of all time. Mario and Rabbids is a fun game, love that XCOM gameplay. I honestly think that both could get in as they are pretty separated from each other.

With that mini rant, let’s talk about what else could go against Rayman. Honestly not much. Rayman is the closest character to filling that obvious third party rep slot that Brawl Sonic and 4 Megaman and Pacman filled. He fits so well artistically with smash as well. The only major knock I could give him is that he would be awkward with hitboxes due to his limbless nature but I doubt it.

100% Want
Outside of Snake returning, Rayman is my second most wanted third party character. I love the Rayman games. My first Rayman game was Rayman 3D. I did not like it. However, when I played Rayman 2 on Dreamcast it was so much better. I blame the 3DS controls. Rayman 1 and Rayman 3 were also a great experience. Origins and Legends are some of my favorite games ever. I love playing them solo or with friends. Rayman has good memories for me.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Day over, will calc in morning, hold off on Krystal until scores are posted.

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Hey everybody! Here I am to drop the noms bombs on you all.

Spoiler: NOMINATIONS

Nominations List

Dillon x 100
Andy x 97
Shulk x 90
Concept : Zelda Newcomer x 87
Professor Layton x 86
Bomberman x 81
Waluigi x 80
Decidueye x 78
Lucina x 75
Chibi Robo x 75
Eggman x 74
Celica x 72
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 68
Marx x 68
Shovel Knight x 66
Midna x66
Skull Kid x64
Sora x 62
Concept: No Cuts x 61
Lucas x 60
Banjo Kazooie x 59
Micaiah x 55
Phoenix Wright x 54
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x50
Doomguy x 43
Mewtwo x 42
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x40
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x40
Jibanyan x39
Geno x 38
Travis Touchdown x 38
New story mode x35
Excitebiker x34
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x31
Urban Champion x30
Kamek x29
Susie (Kirby) x25
Labo Related Character x 25
Ryu Hayabusa x25
Qbby (from Boxboy) x24
Roy x23
Elma x22
Concept Indie Character x 22
Scizor x 21
Lloyd Irving x20
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Funky Kong x20
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x20
Simon Belmont x19
Agumon x18
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 17
Style Savvy Rep x 17
Masked Link x17
Palutena x 16
Hades x15
Returning game mode: Smash Run x15
Sophitia x15
Doom Slayer x15
Concept: Code Name STEAM rep x15
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x15
Arle Nadja x15
Tsubasa Oribe x15
Concept: Advance Wars CO x14
Takumi (FE Fates) x13
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x13
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Azura x 12
Black Shadow x12
Ashley (WarioWare) x12
9-Volt (WarioWare) x12
Sans (Undertale) x12
Concept: New Mother Character x 10
Dark Matter (Kirby) X 10
Neku x 10
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x10
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x10
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x10
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x10
Klonoa x10
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x10
Robin x 9
2B x 8
Pac-Man x8
Doshin the Giant x7
Mipha x7
Sonic x 7
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x7
Balloon Fighter x6
Concept: Custom Moves Return x6
Medusa x 6
Impa x 6
Cloud x6
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Prince Fluff x5
Ninten x 5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ray (Custom Robo) x 5
Concept - Skyrim representation x5
Ayane x5
Greninja x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Lycanroc x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Incineroar x4
Mii Fighters x 4
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Dark Samus x 3
Porky Minch x3
Cranky Kong x3
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Fawful x3
Lip (Panel de Pon) x2
King Boo x2
Tom Nook x2
Mimikyu x 2
Vaati x2
KOS-MOS x2
Bayonetta x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Ghirahim x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Toon Zelda x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Tails x 1
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Concept: Snipperclips representation x1
Tetra x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Toadette x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Mastr/Crazy Hand x1

Notes:

Dillon is the first character to break 100, what with Lyn and Crash being prematurely scheduled. What an honor for the little guy!

A new addition, Agumon, has shot up 18 noms in one round! But...isn't he a Digimon? Well, I'm not judging, lol. Technically, we can rate anyone's chances...

New additions this round:

Agumon x18
Ghirahim x2
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Concept: Playable Mastr/Crazy Hand x1
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Ayane x5
Blastoise x1

Personal shout out to @Basty for putting Gooey on the board! Love that little blob.

By the way...

Rayman
Chance: 50%
Want: 99%

Krystal prediction: 32%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

Remember, everyone, the schedule has changed. Don't waste your noms on scheduled characters!

Rayman as a playable character:
Chance: 60% - Trophies aside, Ninty and Ubi have been buddy systeming for a while, between Mario/Rabbids and Rayman Legends. I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to go for him as their big rep for characters from Europe.

Want: 100% - YES. I'm personally pulling for Crash, but Rayman would be right under him for how bad I want him, plus it's been a good while coming anyway.

Predictions:
Krystal <Star Fox> as a playable character: 20% Chance, 35% Want

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown as a playable character x2
A playable character from Advance Wars x2
Blastoise <Pokemon> as a playable character x1

I added your Advance Wars character noms to the playable CO entry. I hope that's okay! If not, then let me know and I'll fix it next round.

Edit: you beat me to the punch, TCT~Phantom ! I've added your noms in.

 

[andimidna]

I really appreciate the update & full statistics posts : )

 

[DaUsername]

Remember, everyone, the schedule has changed. Don't waste your noms on scheduled characters!

Whoops, didn't realize the schedule updated.
Is it okay if I retroactively switch my noms to Phoenix Wright so they aren't wasted?

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Whoops, didn't realize the schedule updated.
Is it okay if I retroactively switch my noms to Phoenix Wright so they aren't wasted?

I'm ok with it, but TCT~Phantom 's got the final say on rule matters. How about it, Phantom?

 

[skylanders fan]

rayman

chance-20%

want 50%

 

[Wyoming]

-ignore this-

 

[Deleted member]

TCT~Phantom

When we rate a character's chances, are we only predicting the odds of them showing up in the base roster, or does the rating include being added as DLC? I think it's especially relevant in regards to Rex and Pyra, who we're predicting today and rating tomorrow.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Rayman

• Chance: 60%
• Want: 80%
• Rayman did receive a trophy cameo in Smash Wii U, so the possibility that he could become a playable character is there. The only problem would be if he receives an amiibo as well, as it would be one heck of a nightmare to see.

 

[TheAnvil]

Tra la la laaaaa

 

[Opossum]

Guys he said not to rate Krystal yet.

 

[Wyoming]

Oops just noticed that now. I'll delete and copy my post for later then.

 

[PK_Wonder]

TCT~Phantom

I have a suggestion, which would apply to tomorrow's Nindies Showcase and any other Directs or future announcements.

On the first full day after the Nindies Showcase, can everyone have some extra noms (2 or 3) with those extra noms ONLY usable on characters related to the event (in this case indie characters and concepts, unless some unexpected crossover pops up too)?

It will help us react quickly to news after it happens, especially given this relatively short speculation cycle.

We should also have emergency revote days if and when new games get announced prior to the full roster reveal. Say, just for example, this could happen in any number of ways, a new DK game gets announced and the footage has Kremlings. After everyone has a few days to digest it, it would be wise to do a double or triple day of previously rated characters from that series.

You might already have accounted for things like this, just food for thought.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT~Phantom

I have a suggestion, which would apply to tomorrow's Nindies Showcase and any other Directs or future announcements.

On the first full day after the Nindies Showcase, can everyone have some extra noms (2 or 3) with those extra noms ONLY usable on characters related to the event (in this case indie characters and concepts, unless some unexpected crossover pops up too)?

It will help us react quickly to news after it happens, especially given this relatively short speculation cycle.

We should also have emergency revote days if and when new games get announced prior to the full roster reveal. Say, just for example, this could happen in any number of ways, a new DK game gets announced and the footage has Kremlings. After everyone has a few days to digest it, it would be wise to do a double or triple day of previously rated characters from that series.

You might already have accounted for things like this, just food for thought.

I’ll cosider it but I am heisitant due to potential bandwagoning. I only would rather do emergency structures days again after big news like a smash direct or e3. I feel that by letting time affect nominations people will not react impulsively.

Results for yesterday will be posted around 1:30, I need to go to class and overslept.

 

[slambros]

PhilosophicAnimal Where can I find the newest character schedule to know when characters are being rated?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the late post, honestly this day went on for so long since I was beat from travel. Sorry for any inconcinience.

Rayman
48.29% Chance
58.25% Want

Rayman had a relatively good day, with a strong chance score that put him among most characters so far who have been rated as pretty likely. In terms of want, while it certainly is high, he is the third lowest so far. But I know that once we get down the rabbit hole he will drop further.

Today we had a three way tie in terms of prediction, so @8-bit Man @Ura and @-crump- all get 5 extra noms with a prediction of 48%.

Today please discuss Krystal in terms of chance and want. I am curious to see how she will compare to Isaac in particular, their stories are similar... Also please predict the scores for Rex and Pyra (together) tomorrow. Tomorrow is not a double day, they are together as one character.

slambros the list for the fixed schedule is in the OP, you can see it there.

 

[Deleted member]

Krystal
Chance: 25%
Want: 1%

My reasoning is in the next page.

Prediction for Rex & Pyra: 55.43%

Decidueye 5x

 

[ShinyRegice]

Krystal chances: 3.5%
What she has going for her is that she was considered for Brawl and has some fan demand, but she isn't in a comfortable condition overall. She was apparently low priority for Brawl and that was the period during which she had her best shot, having done some major recent appearances and probably being at the peak of her popularity at that time. She lacks major Nintendo appearances as of late, and with the important competition coming from the limited new character slots I'm expecting for this new Smash game, I don't imagine myself seeing her anywhere close to the priority list.

Krystal want: 2%
I have basically zero attachment to the character and I'm close to not being interested at all.

Rex prediction: 66.58%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Krystal
Chance: 10% She is way past her prime sadly, she needs to appear in another Star Fox game to stand a better chance.

Want: 50% I wouldn't mind her being in, but I am not going to lose sleep over it. I just want Wolf.

Like Pikablu said, are we rating based on them making the base roster or does DLC count? Anyway for Rex and Pyra 90% for them to be base, 100% including DLC.

x5 Decidueye

 

[Deleted member]

Krystal

Chance: 1%

She's a relic from an already dying franchise which just cut a veteran, who incidentally would be the first Star Fox character added. The 1% is for a potential strong showing on the ballot.

Want: 0%

Rex and Pyra Prediction: 56.4%

Nominations: x3 Labo character, x2 Excitebiker

 

[Gagnetar]

Krystal

Want: 100% (it has become my mission to try and get her into smash)
-Advantages
1. intuitive, fresh kit involving a unique combo-oriented staff-based combat style, this itself contrasts with the rest of the Starfox roster
2. first-party character means there's no hoops to jump through for her inclusion
3. fairly popular in both US and Japan, nintendo's primary business targets as their reports would suggest (and I hear she's popular in germany too) especially during the ballot, which is when character selection would have occured most likely

Chance: 30% (the truth is a powerful force)
-Disadvantages
1. Divisive character, opinions about Krystal don't really have a neutral zone, they're strongly positive or negative so this mitigates her popularity which is only so high to begin with.
2. Competition, there's alot more recent characters that she competes with for development time and several of them are more popular than her, so depending on roster size we may not get her
3. B-list series, SF has been on a decline for so long, losing a character in Smash 4 shows the series may not warrant more characters, and the veteran Wolf may take her space if they only feel it deserves 3, though this whole bullet may be irrelevant if the characters themselves are popular enough.

 

[Morbi]

Krystal... ugh.

Chance: 1%

Krystal is probably one of the last characters that has a chance at being in this game. She was not present in Star Fox Zero, which was more or less a bomb anyways, and while her future is not necessarily uncertain, adding her to the game would be egregious given the circumstances. This is not the Brawl era, her popularity is at an all time low, I do not believe she gained nearly enough traction during the ballot era and Wolf is, in all likelihood, going to be promoted over her. The only reason I did not crank her down to a .01% was merely because she is female and there is a sort of need for affirmative action and she is about as diverse as they come.

Want: 100%

I love Star Fox, I play all the Star Fox characters, Krystal is my second favorite Star Fox character, behind Wolf, who I do not even like in Smash just because they went for some feral hillbilly aesthetic over his actual personality. I have wanted her for over a decade now, it is just not realistic.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

The delightful purple vixen;

Krystal;

Chance: 25%

It really depends on how many newcomers this game will have. It is most likely that Wolf will return, and with that most likely happening, a second character could appear from Star Fox too, but I do not know how likely it is at all. Therefore, I feel generious about giving her such a high score.

Want: 65%

My bestfriend only truly cares about 2 characters. Banjo Kazooie, and Krystal. Therefore, he has been pushing on the idea of these two, and I'm fine with Krystal. I think she is a well designed character, and could be quite unique from her series. Personally, I want her after the return of Wolf being confirmed. One day, Krystal should be a playable character. If it is this one or not, I can't say for sure.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Krystal

Chance: 5% - There's a slight chance Sakurai will consider her because of her long lasting popularity, but said popularity has also dwindled heavily over the years. The heaviest blow is that Star Fox has moved on from her, that and she has some extremely tough competition in Wolf, who is both more important, relevant and easier to implement. Brawl was when her popularity was at its peak, and it was also when she was most relevant, it really was then or never.

Want: 25% - I wouldn't care for her, in fact I'd much prefer Wolf, but she does get a few percentages just because I have a lot of nostalgia for the Brawl speculation era where she was very prominent, so that part of me would at least be happy enough to see her.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Krystal
Chance: 10% - The Star Fox series has long moved past her, and Sakurai ultimately chose Wolf over her when it came to a third rep in Brawl. The only reason I'm not going lower is her popularity.
Want: 10% - I wouldn't be upset with her inclusion, but I think Fox/Falco/Wolf is all the Star Fox we need.

Prediction: Rex & Pyra
Chance: 64.52%
Want: 60.50%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I cannot see Krystal getting seriously considered, especially after Star Fox Zero's flop in 2016 and actually not appearing in the game. If anyone from Star Fox gets chosen, it will at most be Wolf coming back as a veteran and nothing more, even in the case that a new Star Fox on the Switch comes out this year with Krystal having a role in it. In the specific case of Krystal, the time has long-past.

I have nothing else to say on this character's matter.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Krystal

Chances: 5%

I'm bumping up from 1 to 5 due to a possibility of Sakurai pulling something out of his ass and make us all go WTF. She does have the moveset varsity that can easily become unique and as a bo staff user, we haven't seen those either yet in Smash so she will easily make a nice addition to the roster.

But she has several downfalls: lack of appearance in a game, the amount of characters being thrown in since SSB4, and those who are heavily requested (Dixie, K Rool, Isaac, etc) that are being thrown in, she may end up having a hard time.


Want: 35%

Personally, I want Wolf back before Krystal gets added. But at the same time, I don't think Krystal is going to make this Smash unless Sakurai surprises us like he did with WFT and Duck Hunt Dog. Chances are that unless she makes an appearance in another Star Fox game, she's just about to be blackhole'd


Nominations: Mipha x3, Zangoose x2

 

[AlphaSSB]

Krystal

Chance: 5% - The only chances she has rely on how she did in the ballot, which I'm sure she did somewhat decent in.

Want: 100% - Been a fan of Star Fox for years, with Krystal being my most wanted newcomer for quite some time. She's a great character in the games, with huge potential for a very unique moveset in Smash. Her fighting style would mostly derive from Adventures, being focused on her staff. If Sakurai ever wants a staff-based, fighter, than Krystal would be, in my opinion, the best choice.

Nominations: Midna x5

 

[a smart guy]

Krystal

Chance: 1% You expect me to believe that a franchise that lost a character in the last Smash game, and had a disastrous new title in Star Fox Zero is going to get a new character instead of or in addition to the veteran that got cut last game, even though said character wasn't even present in the series newest title? I'm sorry, I just don't see that happening at all. Isaac is more likely than her, because he would represent a new franchise. Krystal only has fan demand going for her, which isn't that much.

Want: 0% No thank you. She doesn't do anything for me as a character, and I have no personal attachment to her. I'll pass.

Prediction: Rex and Pyra 26%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

As an aside, if you ever want to see the discussion over a specific character, I've got you covered. I've made a list of all the links to the starts of all character to days. Here's the link.

 

[Wyoming]

Krystal

Chance - 3%
Her chance has gone. Brawl was the peak of her popularity and Star Fox was still making games on a regular basis. Since then the series has been on a precarious state with no direction willing to push it forward. To make matters worse for her, she wasn't even in the latest game. And Wolf, a cut veteran with more relevancy and fanbase, is in bigger demand.

Want - 10%
Never cared for her. Her inclusion into Star Fox was always a forced matter due to Nintendo not liking the original concept of Dinosaur Planet. I did like that she added a new layer into Fox's character, but ultimately her only notable appearance to me was in Assault. Let us never discuss the atrocities of Command ever again.

Rex and Pyra prediction: 63.2% chance
Noms: Concept: The Sims character x2, Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x2, Toadette x1

 

[Rockaphin]

Krystal:

Chance: 18%

Want: 1%
I don't care for the Star Fox series. And there's other characters I'd pick before her.

Prediction:
Rex and Pyra 61%

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x5