Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sid-cada]

Rayman

Chance - 65% - As far as third parties go, he's probably on the front. As Ubisoft mascot, there isn't much alternative unless you go with the Rabbids get in instead. I think it's quite likely that it's going to be one of them getting in, and I think having him get in over the Rabbids would go over better.

Want - 80% - I enjoyed playing as him in legends, so I won't mind his inclusion.


Predictions

Krystal - 10.23% - Well, she still has to get a new appearance...


Nominations

Anna X5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 70%
Rayman is the most likely third party newcomer. I mean he got a trophy in Smash and Nintendo even let Ubisoft use their IP. I'd honestly be shocked if he didn't appear in the game or as DLC

Want: 0%
I like Rayman's games but I literally have no desire to see him in Smash. The only new third party I want to see in this game is Banjo & Kazooie.

Noms: Tethu X5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Rayman

Chance: 50%
He has a lot of people who want him, he got a pretty positive reception when the fake leak happened, and Ubisoft seems open to the idea (especially since he was a trophy). On the other hand, third-party franchises have a smaller chance to get in, and he doesn't have the same kind of relationship with Nintendo as other third-parties like Sonic, Mega Man and Bayonetta. There's a lot going for him and a lot going against him, it could really go either way. I personally don't think he'll get in, but I could be wrong.

Want: 25%
I don't really care. I've never played a Rayman game before. I have Origins on Steam and I've Been Meaning To Play It™, but for right now I don't care if he gets in or not.

Krystal prediction: 70%
Not because that makes any sense, mind, but because her diehards have been acting like she was inevitable since Brawl.

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x2
Funky Kong x2
Sora x1

 

[Nimbostratus]

23. A Secret Surprise

I'm holding out for Groose, Hades, or Owain, personally

Rayman
Chance- 40%
I can't give a third party a better than 50% chance, but Rayman does have an awful lot in his favor, from already being a trophy to Nintendo's close relationship with Ubisoft recently. Could be beat out by the Rabbids unfortunately but I'll give him the edge.
Want- 15%
He's ok, but I'm pretty stingy on my third parties, and Rayman just isn't interesting enough for me. That said, we could do far worse.

Krystal Predictions- 19%

Nominations:
Ashley (WarioWare) x5

 

[AshNic321]

Rayman
Chance: 25%
I do think we're going to be limited to our third party inclusions this time around, but it's going to be really small. I can see us getting at least 2 more, their number for third parties for a new game has been 2 so far. Rayman/Ubisoft does have a good relationship with Nintendo, and Nintendo did help with the most recent Rayman games. The infamous Omni fake leak definitly got him more popular as a possibly third party choice amongst some Smash fans. While one could possibly think this more gives the Rabbids a chance, Rayman is still Ubisoft's most historic and iconic character. Like, honestly, would you guys REALLY want a Rabbid in over Rayman?

Want: 90%
Of the third parties that people throw out, I do think that RayMan is a bit more of the likelier choices. Next to him would be Bomberman! Personally, Rayman and Bomberman would be my favorite picks for possible third parties for this next installment of Smash. Rayman's character is extremely unique, and perhaps most importantly, he'd be an absolute joy to have on the roster for Smash. If you've played the most recent Rayman games being Origins and Legends, you'd probably figure out what most of his moveset would consist of. There's nothing wrong with having a modern video game character as a third party rep, I mean Cloud (to an extent) and Bayonetta proves that they don't need to be completely retro characters.

Krystal: 15%
Oh boy, Krystal is going to be interesting. I'm expecting a lot of people to bring up Star Fox Zero when talking about her chances.

Nominations: Decidueye x3
Ashley (Wario Ware) x2
Sora: x1

 

[Deleted member]

Nominations: Decidueye x3

You have 2 more nominations that you can use.

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

EDIT: Raised my chance rating to reflect things I hadn't initially realised.

Rayman

Chance: 60% - Honestly, had it not been for the trophy in smash4 I would have put the chance even lower. I just really don't consider Rayman iconic enough to be a worthwhile third party character. but clearly if he got a trophy and he's series is still sticking around, that's just me. plus the smashified "leak" probably helped promote the idea of him in smash a lot. so I'd say he has a shot if both parties agree to it, but not a huge one. then again. given Mario + Rabbids, Nintendo and ubisoft are probably on decent terms and an appearance from Rayman (or a Rabbid) could be a real possibility

Want: 30% - I played a little of his earlier games as a kid and they were decent. nothing spectacular but decent. he is far from my most wanted third party. plus if we were getting a floating limb character I'd rather it be Sukapon. but him getting in wouldn't upset or enrage me. and I know he has a lot of people who want him in.

Krystal Prediction: 36%

Nominations

Qbby (Boxboy) x3
Banjo & Kazooie x 1
Agumon x1

 

[Ivander]

Chance: 50%.
I don't see him as a shoe-in, but I do see him having a chance.

Want: 50%
I do enjoy the Rayman games and certainly wouldn't mind him. But he's not a must-have for me.

Nominations:
Lyndis x 1
Professor Layton x 1
Simon Belmont x 3

 

[Deleted member]

Lyndis x 1

Lyn is going to get rated at day 22

 

[BluePikmin11]

Considering how Omni's Smashified leak and the trophy helped Rayman boost popularity when it came to the ballot, Rayman will likely be considered again mainly because of the ballot. I would imagine with Ubisoft developing Switch games like Mario+Rabbids (since the game was pitched way back in 2014), Ubisoft must have recommended at some point to Sakurai to add Rayman as a playable character, assuming the Rabbids game and Smash Switch game started development back in 2016.

Given the company's history of being a closer supporter of Nintendo notably through the Wii U's beginning to the Switch now, I can see playability becoming a very real possibility, with Ubisoft likely being among the first to reach Sakurai for playability consideration. I would argue they would suggest Rayman way before even guys like Bethesda could possibly suggest Sakurai to add a Skyrim or Doom character for Smash. Reaching an agreement to add Rayman will likely be very smooth with nothing getting in the way with Ubisoft's strong relationship with Nintendo. It all lines up to give Rayman the highest opportunity to be in Smash.

Really, it all comes down to whether Sakurai and Ubisoft can reach a contract and agreement. And, whether Sakurai has the will to add a Western third-party in Smash. I personally think that Sakurai can change his mind about these types of characters the same way he reconsidered peaceful types of characters like Villager for Smash 4 and made him playable. In general, him being more open with his character criteria after years of developing Smash 4 and agreeing and developing relationships with multiple Western third-parties and indie developers to add, at least, trophy content for the game for public game notability. At that point, I feel that he became comfortable about the 'Western' character idea, at the point of starting development for Smash Switch in 2016.

As for Rabbids getting in over Rayman, the idea is silly to me. Even if the Rabbids game has given positive outlook on Rabbids, Ubisoft is not going to ignore the fact that Rayman gained a huge boost of Smash demand, it is ideal to answer that demand with making Rayman playable instead to gain the most profit. Rayman is likelier than I initially expected, making this analysis. It is the kind of thing I would expect, like with Konami adding Snake in Brawl after an affair with Kojima and Sakurai.

 

[Morbi]

Rayman

Chance: 75%
Well, with Ubisoft and Nintendo holding hands and going to the bathroom together at e3, I have to imagine there was a reason a bit deeper than a tactical cross-over with the Rabbids. Beyond that, conspiracy theory, Rayman was supposed to be in Smash for Wii U and once Ubisoft delayed it or whatever to make it a multi-platform release, Nintendo was angry and had that low quality, probably unfinished trophy added to the game instead. Who knows? But that is neither here, nor there. Clearly they are buddies at the current time and Rayman is the ideal pick unless Nintendo randomly wanted an assassin or monkey.

Want: 5%
Meh, it would have been better last time, there are bigger fish to fry and I prefer the assassin or the monkey, quite frankly. I am still interested in that Amiibo, though.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Rayman

Chance: 10%

It seems like for a 3rd party character to get into Smash, the company in question needs to have a long running history with Nintendo, or at least some strong relationship to them. Ubisoft doesn't really have the history with Nintendo that SEGA, Konami, Capcom, and Square had, and they aren't making the game like Namco had. Platinum Games is a bit of an odd case, but because Bayonetta 2 and 3 were funded by Nintendo along with being Nintendo console exclusive, and also being the Smash Ballot winner, she makes some sense. Ubisoft doesn't really have this history with Nintendo, being a multiplat developer all the way since the NES days, and hasn't really done anything substantial with Nintendo aside from the failed deal of having Rayman Legends be a Wii U exclusive, and Mario + Rabbids just recently.

The fact that Ubisoft also isn't a Japanese company and Rayman isn't popular whatsoever in Japan also puts a big dent into his chances, because Sakurai and friends have a history of taking Japan requests over western requests in most cases. I think the only character who got in on western support alone was Little Mac, and he's a Nintendo owned character. It's probably a lot harder for a 3rd party AND western character to get into Smash, because we've never seen one before.

It's not like Rayman is a huge gaming icon either. He's decently big, for sure, but not exactly the same tier Mario, Sonic, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, and Mega Man for me. I still give him a 10% though, because he did have those trophies in Smash, so its clear Sakurai and friends are somewhat aware of him. However, Commander Video also had a trophy, and you really don't see anyone rallying around him.

I'm just not feeling it.

Want: 20%

I think he'd be cool to see moveset-wise, but I'm not super interested in the character. Also not really interested in adding more third parties, unless we're talking about bringing a Konami character back.

Nominations: Concept - Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Rayman
Chance: 25%
If Ubi gets a character it'll be a rabbid, probably. And I don't think they will get a character. But there was that trophy...

Want: 0%
Eh, I can think of several third parties I want more.

Prediction for Krystal: 14.5%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Mipha x2

 

[Opossum]

I'll never understand why some people think Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle helps out Rayman instead of, well, the Rabbids. The absence of Rayman in that game, if anything, says more.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'll never understand why some people think Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle helps out Rayman instead of, well, the Rabbids. The absence of Rayman in that game, if anything, says more.

Well, I guess it would reinforce the idea to Sakurai that Ubisoft still cares about supporting Nintendo, more than Rabbids being an actual suggestion. I cannot see Ubisoft naturally suggesting Rabbids first, neither can I see Sakurai being intrigued by a playable Rabbid idea first. If anything, it will most likely remind Sakurai of Ubisoft in general and Rayman being in high demand for playability in Smash for Sakurai to phase Rayman to at least the consideration stage.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Rayman

Chance: 35%

Ubisoft is a good third party supporter for the last few Nintendo consoles and the Switch currently. Legends was published by Nintendo in Japan and the whole crew had gotten trophies in Smash. He's very popular as far as possible third parties so far.

Now the two big roadblocks are being a Western third party. That and the Rabbids are now a threat to him thanks to a certain Switch game.

Want: 90%

Rayman would be an excellent character and there's not a single game that I've ever hated involving him.

Predictions for Krystal: 11%

Nominations: Sans x5

 

[a smart guy]

Rayman
Chance: 55% The most likely third-party in my opinion. His company made a game with Mario in it, which is highly unusual. Yes, that game featured the Rabbids without Rayman, but that doesn't hurt Rayman's chances. Including Rayman in that game would have been like including Mario in a DK game. Sure, they started out in the same franchise, but they've definitely grown apart. In addition, Rayman got 3 trophies in the Wii U version. I suspect he was planned for the game at some point, but when his new game stopped being exclusive, Nintendo stopped it.

Want: 70% A great newcomer, and one of my hopes.

Predictions: Krystal 9%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Rayman:

Chance: 52%

Want: 7%

I do not have any personal ties with Rayman.

Krystal Prediction: 35%

Nominations:
Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x5

 

[slambros]

Rayman

Chance: 30%
Nintendo and Ubisoft have created a better partnership over the years, and Rayman does have a trophy in Smash for Wii U, which bodes well. But I am more apprehensive about Rayman because all of the third party characters we have gotten so far have been closely related to Japan.

Want: 25%
I'd love to be proven wrong but I don't feel like he'd be all that unique as a fighter, at least to me and what I've seen from gameplay of Rayman games. I'd still like to see him in the game, if only out of curiosity.

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Nominations: Concept - Historical Character x5

TCT~Phantom I noticed that my nomination name was changed to include Retros, but I would like this concept to discuss exclusively the idea of a Mr. Game and Watch, R.O.B., or (arguably) Duck Hunt-like character whose inclusion serves as a nod to Nintendo's past history. I would consider this a separate concept from the "retro" characters like Ice Climbers, Pit, and (arguably) Little Mac. Would you be willing to rename the concept in the nomination list?

For Little Mac, see this quote:

Ah, that was my edit, actually (I updated the noms list for Phantom.) I was paraphrasing your meaning, as I thought I understood where you were going with it. But I see the meaning you were going for, so I'll change the entry to include those specifics in the update tonight.

 

[Organization XIII]

I'll never understand why some people think Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle helps out Rayman instead of, well, the Rabbids. The absence of Rayman in that game, if anything, says more.

I honestly don't understand how anyone could think Rabids are even remotely possible. Plus I think it's more that Kingdom Battle showed that Nintendo and Ubisoft's relation is on far better terms and Rayman is the mascot of the company.

 

[Deleted member]

Rayman

Chance: 18%

Ubisoft is on good terms with Nintendo, but he's still a third party owned by a western company.

Want: 12%

I don't really care.

Edit: Forgot noms & prediction

Nominations: Excitebiker x5

Krystal Prediction: 18.4%

 

[NeonBurrito]

I honestly don't understand how anyone could think Rabids are even remotely possible.

To be fair, everyone said that there is no way a Mario + Rabbids crossover could possibly happen.
Then everyone said that there is no way a Mario + Rabbids crossover game would be well received.

 

[Megaban]

It's time.

Chance -62%.
He is one of if nt THE most likely 3rd party newcomer in my opinion. Ubisoft did show willingness to allow Rayman, Ninty did add THREE trophies from the series, including a Rayman model given SPECIFICALLY for Smash purposes as Sakurai said. Aaaand don't forget recent Mario + Rabbids spinoff! Emphasis on Rabbids. Rayman might be waiting for another crossover (such as Smash) Only big thing that hampers chances a bit is well... he's 3rd party.

Want -101%
Yes. Not 100%. 101%. That's legit my MOST WANTED character for Smash. For a long time. I just had childhood with Rayman, I love Rayman 3 (cleared the game like 10+ times lol) and I'd legit default to him as new main in new Smash game if he got in. His moveset would be easy to make, even just take most normals from Rayman Legends/Origins and specials also have possibilities. Obvious one is his Haircopter for Up B for example.

If Rayman happens, I'll die happy.

Nominations: Lana x5

Prediction: Krystal: 30%.

 

[Organization XIII]

To be fair, everyone said that there is no way a Mario + Rabbids crossover could possibly happen.
Then everyone said that there is no way a Mario + Rabbids crossover game would be well received.

That's a fair point. Though I still pray they come nowhere near Smash.

 

[NintenRob]

Wow, Takamaru did better than expected, especially for a retro character who are generally hard to predict

Rayman
Chance 45%
I think he's probably the most likely third party newcomer, but I'm not giving any third party newcomer a chance score higher than 50%

Want 60%
He'd be cool

Nominate Skull Kid x5

Prediction Krystal 17%

 

[jamesster445]

Rayman

Chance- 50%
Mario+Rabbids is a thing. Then again the Rabbids have evolved beyond Rayman.

Want- 10%
I have no love for this character and apparently neither does Ubisoft because they've done nothing with the character recently aside from porting a game that was done back when the WiiU was launching.

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Erimir]

Some general thoughts on 3rd parties:

Spoiler

I think 3rd parties are a bit more likely than I would have in the past. Smash 4 kinda went wild with them, while Snake was removed, they added Mega Man and Pac-Man at launch, and then for DLC added Ryu, Cloud and Bayonetta - almost half of the DLC characters, and 3 out of the 4 DLC newcomers.

I think they've concluded that since they've covered most of the big names from Nintendo franchises, 3rd-parties are a bigger draw. The question is whether that calculation was that 3rd-parties were a better choice for DLC (selling more downloads?) or whether they will plan to add more for the initial launch of Smash 5 as well.

The most important criteria is probably being a video game character. The character must have originated in video games, and probably has to originate in a video game that originated as a video game. Even if a character is unique to a James Bond or Tom Clancy video game, that's probably not good enough. Who knows, we might get an exception to this rule eventually, for a character that's important to video game history or more important as a video game character than their original medium. But I doubt we'll ever see Disney getting a character, whereas if DuckTales had been released with original characters it might have been able to do so.

I'd say other than that there isn't a clear criteria you can use for 3rd-parties, although I think these factors probably matter somewhat.

A long history with Nintendo? Either by debuting on a Nintendo console or being primarily associated with them? Or maybe at least by dating back to the NES days?
Well, only Mega Man debuted on a Nintendo console, back on the NES.
And most of Mega Man's games have been on Nintendo consoles. The other series have not been as strongly associated with Nintendo, although some have notable releases (Street Fighter 2, the most important Street Fighter game, had an SNES port as the main home version... the fact that Street Fighter didn't get a Nintendo release is almost irrelevant).
Pac-Man and Metal Gear both had NES releases.
I'd note, however, that not only is only Mega Man strongly associated with Nintendo, but some of the other characters are primarily associated with non-Nintendo consoles, or even have shunned Nintendo. Cloud didn't debut on Nintendo, and his series is mostly associated with Sony now - starting with his game! Nintendo mostly only gets ports of years old Street Fighter games at this point. Metal Gear is mostly associated with Sony, although they gave Nintendo a port or two.
Sonic is a unique case, having been Mario's biggest rival, but since Sega got out of the console business, giving somewhat more support to Nintendo than the other platforms (and having a series with Mario).

Video game history more generally? That works for Pac-Man and Sonic, and Ryu, given that Street Fighter created a lot of the conventions for the fighting genre.

Current relevance to Nintendo? Well, that's how Bayonetta got in. But Ryu, Cloud and Snake didn't have this. Especially not Cloud.

Aesthetically fitting with Nintendo and Smash? Sure, that applies to Mega Man and Pac-Man, and Sonic. Ryu, Cloud, Snake and Bayonetta don't fit Nintendo/Smash's aesthetic that well though, especially not Bayonetta. It's probably safe to say that using realistic guns or being from a particularly gory or sexualized series is not a plus though (Bayonetta getting in despite how sexualized she is was a little surprising to me).

I'd also note that Bayonetta means you don't even have to be a truly iconic video game character. She's nowhere near the level of Pac-Man and Sonic.

But popularity matters too, of course. Performance on the ballot will likely be considered. Bayonetta evidently had that going for her. And that was a big boost to Cloud, I'm sure.

Which is all to say there isn't really any criteria you could disqualify Rayman on the basis of. I think we can say that a character probably needs something from that list though. Current or historic relevance to Nintendo or being iconic, and preferably not being too "mature" for Smash.

Of course, the most important factor is the company's relations with Nintendo. Characters outright owned by Sony or Microsoft are basically impossible while they continue to make video game consoles. Companies that rarely or never release games on Nintendo consoles are unlikely to have characters be included.

Rayman

So... Rayman is from a series that isn't historically important to Nintendo, but has supported Nintendo fairly well. Ubisoft also has quite good relations with Nintendo, most recently represented with the Mario + Rabbids collaboration. I think that shows Ubisoft's good relations, but benefits Rabbids more than Rayman.

Most obviously, Rayman got a trophy in Smash 4, showing some connection to Smash already.

There's some minor competition from the Rabbids, given that Mario + Rabbids game, but Rayman is the most obvious inclusion from Ubisoft overall.

Rayman chances: 30%
I can't rate him too highly, since there are so many choices for 3rd-parties, or they might feel like they shouldn't put so much emphasis on 3rd-parties (or they might even plan to save 3rd-parties for DLC). He also doesn't seem as big of a draw as some of the 3rd-parties. But he is still one of the most likely choices. His trophy shows some juice with Nintendo, but I don't think he rates as high as a coin flip though.

Rayman want: 35%
I've never played his games. He'd fit in Smash fine, but I'd prefer other 3rd-parties and other Nintendo characters.

Nominations: Concept: custom moves return x5

Krystal Prediction: 18%
I think her juice probably will have drained a bit since the Brawl and Smash 4 days.

 

[CannonStreak]

Rayman

Chance: 70%

I am not completely certain about Rayman getting in the game as a playable character, but he did appear in Smash 4 as a trophy, so I believe he has a chance some. I wouldn't be surprised if he got in the game.

Want: 99%

Since his trophy in Smash 4, I have wanted to see Rayman duke it out with the other Smash Bros. I would like to play as the limbless hero from the Glade of Dreams so much.

 

[Deleted member]

The limbless wonder

Chance: 75%

- Very requested
- Rayman Legends being published by Nintendo in Japan
- The 3 Rayman trophies in Smash Wii U
- Ubisoft's current solid partnership

Want: 60%

Not my most wanted guest but why not.


Nomination:
x5

Krystal Prediction:
31%

 

[Icedragonadam]

Rayman

Chance: 35%

Want: ABSTAINED

One of the liklier 3rd party characters especially thanks to the Mario and Rabbids crossover.

Prediction

Krystal: 8.34%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[JamesDNaux]

Rayman

Chance: 90%​

Rayman, a name that doesn't mean much to many Smash players, but a name as big as the stars elsewhere. The oft-forgotten mascot of Ubisoft, a questionable company, but one of the largest third party players in gaming. While nowadays they're most recognized for Assassin's Creed, let it not be forgotten that they exist to this day thanks to our limbless friend. Ubisoft was not always the giant corporation they are today, in the early days of gaming, they were a little known name. That is, until Rayman put them on the map. Michel Ancel's (whom some call the French Miyamoto) weird creation was a smash hit, sending Ubisoft climbing up the latter, where they sadly began to forget him. But he was not forgotten in the hearts of his fans, Rayman is to Europe what Mega Man was to others, an icon of an era. He might not be big in Japan, but should Smash branch out to western franchises, Rayman is one of the biggest and oldest out there. Ubisoft has even been working rather close with Nintendo, can't say I know of any other western developer who was trusted to make a Mario game. And while some might argue that Mario + Rabbids only helps Rabbids and not Rayman, let's not forget that the Rabbids are an offshoot of the Rayman franchise. And despite the Rabbids franchise separating and multiplying like... Rabbids, the Rayman series still remains on top in terms of sales. Look back to previous third party characters in Smash, we didn't get the most relevant Final Fantasy character in Smash, nor did we get one with the most ties to Nintendo, we got Cloud, the fan favorite, the face of JRPGs. We got Mega Man, honest to goodness classic NES Mega Man, Pac-Man, Ryu. If Ubisoft were to enter the ring, Rayman is the obvious choice. He even had three trophies in the last Smash. Artsy Omny's fake leak was just in time to push people to vote on the Smash Ballot, too.

TL;DR, Rayman is to Ubisoft what Mario is to Nintendo, if western third parties become a thing, he's the first obvious choice.

Want: 200 100%​

I don't want to double the length of this post, so to keep it sweet and simple:

 

[ikke471]

Rayman

Chance: 80%

I am not 100% sure of his inclusion but after everything that's been happening lately with Ubisoft and Nintendo there sure is a high chance he's in this time. The leak for the previous game, Miyamoto and Yves practically hugging it out and pretending to shoot innocent people at E3, the trophies, Mario + Rabbids, the fact that Nintendo publishes all of Ubisoft's games that come out in japan. He has a lot going for him and he'd ba an awesome and unique charater!

Want: 100%

By far my most wanted character ever for smash. He's definitely up there with the likes of Megaman imo and I'd love to see him along with the other legendary platformer giants!

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Rayman

Chance: 45%

He may be a Western third party, but Ubisoft had been good partner to Nintendo for a while. He's got the edge for being very popular during the Smash Ballot and having a unique design that stands out. Sure the Rabbits also happen to exist, but I wouldn't see Ubisoft going their own mascot the cold shoulder again just for those furry blokes. He's still a strong contender.

Want: 100%

Because he's Rayman, that's why he's my most wanted next to Crash and Ryu Hayabusa.

Predictions for Krystal: 14%

Sorry Krystal.

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

Rayman

Chances: 90%

His chances are looking mighty fine after the recent events that have transpired between Ubisoft and Nintendo, along with the trophies in Sm4sh. He's also got quite the following which makes him pretty popular. Questionable relevance is the only real reason I'm putting him lower than a 100% because I'd otherwise see no reason not to put him in.

Want: 75%

He's a cool character and I've played a game of his and liked it. Would be cool.

Prediction for Krystal: 34.8%

 

[Starcutter]

Rayman: 16%

Honestly, so many people are overrating characters in general. I'm thinking Fire Emblem hit rates here, if it's in the high 70s I expect the move to hit, but I'm not too surprised if it doesn't. Anywhere above an 80 is basically guaranteed, but there's always that slight chance.

The 16% I gave Rayman is like landing a crit when you didn't expect it, but you always knew the possibility existed.

While Rayman is possible due to his smash 4 trophies and Ubisoft's relation with Nintendo, I don't see it happening honestly. If Ubisoft was to get a character, I would expect them to push the Rabbids. That is, if they get one in the first place.

Want: 60% he's pretty cool, and I thought Legends was fun.

Krystal prediction: 38% (since people keep overrating characters chances lol)

Nominations: Snip & clip x5

 

[andimidna]

Yay, I really try with my predictions

Rayman:
I feel like, along with Wolf and maybe even Isaac, he might've just missed the Smash 4 DLC cut. Or could've been held back for the next game like the Inklings after Smash Switch was conceptualized. He was probably high up on the ballot, and 3rd parties seem expected at this point, even though they aren't necessary at all. I can't really take the idea of Rabbids before Rayman seriously. The only time we got a 3rd party with more recent relevance rather than iconic status was Bayo, and Nintendo revived that series. I didn't even realize that crossover game had already released. Was it really not garbage? Lmao can't say I've been keeping up with something like that.
Chance: 30%
We don't know why he wasn't in Smash 4. There could be some other circumstance behind it. I don't want to rate that many characters close to 50.
Want: 60%
It was gonna be 50/50 since I've only played a demo for one of his games, but then people reminded me the Ubisoft alternative was the Rabbids. Yuck. Gimme this instead
No offense if you like them or nothing

Krystal prediction: 15.5%
x5 Midna
x3 Azura
x1 Anna
x1 Veronica

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Raymond
Wait, the guy from the hit American sitcom, Everyone Loves Raymond? We cant rate him, he needs to be from a videogame!!!

...oh. The french guy with no limbs. Gotcha.

Rayman!
Chance-70%
I'm sure no one wants a wall blocking everyone else's messages so I will put my thoughts in this tiny orange button for your convenience.

Spoiler

Rayman has quite a bit going for him. His debut was on PlayStation, PC and even the damn Atari Jaguar, but not the Super Nintendo (altough planned). Despite the fact, he has had games on EVERY Nintendo system after that, from Rayman 2 on N64 to Legends on Wii U and Switch, which gives him a pretty strong push. He may not be on Icon levels of or , but he certainly wouldnt be the most "obscure " 3rd party weve had. As others have mentioned, Ubisoft has historically been supportive to Nintendo, and made the infamous Mario Rabbids game.

But when it comes to Smash Bros, Rayman has had an odd history with the most recent installment. 3 Rayman trophies in the game, with models supplied by Ubisoft. While this in it of itself is odd, what I find more odd is that Ubisoft is credited NOWHERE in the game as far as I know for these characters copyrights. Shortly after the trophies were revealed, a Nintendo Canada representative said that Rayman was actually playable... which obviously wasnt true, but this still raises my eyebrows. Maybe Rayman was planned initially, or what I think happened; a Snake/Sonic in Melee situation occurred. 2013/14 rolls around, Smash 4 hype and development, going smoothly, and the Ubisoft approached Nintendo to pitch Rayman for the new Smash Bros like Hideo & Yuji did in the Melee days. Obviously, it was far too late in development to include a brand new character, so they made up for it with trophies. All this may help his inclusions this time around.

That's now all history with a little bit of conspiracy, though. I think Rayman is the most "realizable" 3rd party newcomer, with two roadblocks standing against him; Roadblock #1 is the fact that he is a western character, which Sakurai avoids like the plague with the exception of . This may change in this game, though, as sooner or later Smash Bros is gonna run out of iconic Japanese 3rd parties to use. It also makes more sense from a business point to include more western characters for a worldwide appeal, since the game industry is more worldwide than ever nowadays.

Potential Roadblock #2; Ubisoft themselves. It's clear that the actual developers at Ubisoft love the character and series with all their hearts, but I'm not quite sure the higher ups do. We haven't seen a brand new Rayman since 2013, and it seems the only factor that keeps getting Rayman new games is the creator Micheal Ancel himself (who even stated that he wants to make Rayman 4 after Beyond Good & Evil 2). It's also possible that rabbids may get in instead, but I think there are enough people at Ubisoft that understand Raymans importance to their company to overcome this potential issue.

Want- 100%
Rayman was my 2nd most wanted 3rd party newcomer during SSB4, only behind . I'm not fond of Rayman 1, but I really like all 4 other games. I think he fits right in, character and moveset wise. Only 3rd party I want more is , and Banjo Kazooie is right behind him. If rabbids actually do get in over Rayman, I would be thoroughly disappointed.

Krystal-12.64%

Banjo Kazooie X 2
Doomguy X 3

 

[AshNic321]

I'll never understand why some people think Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle helps out Rayman instead of, well, the Rabbids. The absence of Rayman in that game, if anything, says more.

Here's the thing; I don't think anyone REALLY wants the Rabbids, which also is another thing. Why are you people suggesting characters you know you don't want. If they are, their suggesting the Rabbids for the wrong reasons; its not necessarily a want. For the most part they are only going off Mario + Rabbids, if anything I can see us at least getting a stage or maybe even Rabbid Peach as a possible assist trophy. A full blown playable Rabbid, no one REALLY wants that. When it comes to third party companies, we've gotten the character that represents the company as a whole in some capacity. Rabbids isn't that for Ubisoft, Rayman is.

 

[Deleted member]

Here's the thing; I don't think anyone REALLY wants the Rabbids, which also is another thing. Why are you people suggesting characters you know you don't want. If they are, their suggesting the Rabbids for the wrong reasons; its not necessarily a want. For the most part they are only going off Mario + Rabbids, if anything I can see us at least getting a stage or maybe even Rabbid Peach as a possible assist trophy. A full blown playable Rabbid, no one wants that. When it comes to third party companies, we've gotten the character that represents the company as a whole in some capacity. Rabbids isn't that for Ubisoft, Rayman is.

Don't speak for everyone.
Opo actually wants the Rabbids in (that's what I inferred from his posts) and I know plenty of others who do.