Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Troykv]

I'll Abstain this time; I arrived to late to make a decent post.

_______
Predictions

Arle: 16.5%
Qbby: 12.4%

Nominations (Are we still at 10 Noms?)

Neptune (Neptunia Series) x3
Ayumi Tachibana x7

(otherwise add the 5 Nominations to Ayumi)

 

[Slyshock]

She had a kid, so I do hope she is legal for the sake of Nintendo not dropping some hardcore stuff on a puzzle game. Lol!!!

Biggest issue is her looking childish, while being older, and the whole miniskirt thing going on. Overall she has a cute design, but she can also draw in some really bad crowds. Both of these characters for me are actually fine visually, but there's other aspects that bother me on them.

I see your confusion now, you've mistaken the timeline of the games.

The Lip we're rating is the younger Lip from Panel de Pon. The Lip who's grown up and had a child herself is the Lip from Nintendo Puzzle Collection. While Lip never makes an in-game appearance in Nintendo Puzzle Collection, we've seen what a mature fairy looks like in Lip's mother from Panel de Pon. As Lip's mother looks like an adult, there's every reason to assume that Lip would look like an adult by the time she became a mother herself.

Spoiler: Hidden for those who don't care

You bring up when is the time for ladies to be in the game, there's plenty!!! Inkling, Peach, Daisy, Samus, Lucina, WFT, Bayonetta, etc.

Exactly, all characters that were included despite the fact that those who would objectify them exist. If game developers had a different mentality, they may never have had the chance. We live in a relatively lax time where neither glass ceiling extreme I mentioned previously is the norm, which is why it's all the more important to keep it that way by keeping possibly damaging arguments in check.

Also Peach's #'s showcase innocent and cute female characters are not safe. Lip would not be safe either.

If no one's safe, there's no point denying them opportunities in an attempt to protect them. Lip already exists, it's just a matter of whether fear over the potential behavior of a demonstrably small minority should dictate the actions of everyone else.

My issue with Krystal was people blatantly disregarding Wolf back in the day when he was more iconic for the series in it's prime while she was during it's downfall.

A bit of an odd turn, but I think I see what you're getting at. I'm not the biggest Krystal fan in the world, but I don't think it'd be a stretch to assume that fans of Adventures, Assault and Command could like her for more reasons than that. You shouldn't assume the worst of people who disagree with your vision of the ideal roster, especially considering how it's already been shown how easily this particular argument could be turned back on Wolf.

Overall though, if either Travis or Lip get in... good for their fans and I may end up liking their Smash selves in the end. But at looking at predicting or wanting them, they both fall short for me.

Certainly you're free to like or dislike any character you want, one of the joys of Smash speculation is in seeing how different perspectives mesh and clash together. All I'm asking is that you consider your reasons why more carefully, because arguments predicated on misplaced bias and pessimism can spread and contribute to greater issues than may have originally been intended.

 

[Arcanir]

Abstaining from Travis and Lip today, I don't have enough time to go over and rate them.

Nomination: Monster Hunter Character x5/10

Edit: Not sure if the x10 nominations is still on, so I'll just put all of it on Monster Hunter to be safe.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Abstain from lip since I don't know enough

Travis touchdown chance 10%

I want to bare you people in mind suda51 definatly still wants Travis in smash today there's a article on this and they are close friends and this is kind of the same way snake made it in brawl and bayonetta proves rated M characters can be toned down for smash but the 10% is due to simon belmont and very likely geno two new 3rd parties for base is probably all we are getting

Want is abstain

 

[MasterWarlord]

Spoiler: Hidden for those who don't care

I've seen this mentality pop up before and with other female characters as well so I'd like to address it.
To your credit you do stress that you're only referring to a minority, so while this post will refer back to you it's not primarily directed at you.

First of all, there's nothing referring to Lip's age in the games.
She does use magic, but nowhere is it implied that she'd age differently. If you take issue with that character archetype, your anger is misguided here.

Taking a quick look at the filters over on Pixiv, we can gauge how much R-18 content is generated for various characters and franchises.
For comparison, we'll use Panel de Pon as a whole (Lip's tag overlaps with the body part and is thus unusable) and 3 of your Smash mains.

Spoiler: R-18 data from Pixiv

パネルでポン (panerudeponn) has 962 illustrations in total, with 64 being marked R-18.
R-18: 7.1%

ゲッコウガ (greninja) has 3802 illustrations in total, with 354 being marked R-18.
R-18: 9.3%

ウルフ・オドネル (Wolf O'Donnell) has 621 illustrations in total, with 89 being marked R-18.
R-18: 16.7%

ピーチ姫 (princess peach) has 4405 illustrations in total, with 1211 being marked R-18.
R-18: 27.5%

The percentage of R-18 Panel de Pon content is less than your Smash 4 main, substantially less than your Brawl main, and significantly less than your Melee main.

That doesn't mean you're a raging pervert, but that every fictional character is going to have R-18 content created for them regardless of anything else. For every fictional character not explicitly created for the purpose of starring in R-18 content, the fans interested in them as a character will always outnumber the fans interested in them as an object. Using the existence of a minority as a weapon against the majority isn't conductive to any conversation. It might seem like I'm blowing such a small line out of proportion, but I think it's indicative of a issue in the greater community. It's pretty obvious that the "creep bait" stigma is only applied to female characters, despite there being plenty of male characters who statistically fit the bill better.

One theory for why Panel de Pon was reskinned in the West was because Nintendo of America believed that the fairy aesthetic wouldn't appeal to a primarily male demographic. If 20 years ago the logic for keeping girls out of games was that boys wouldn't want to buy games that starred girls, and today the logic for keeping girls out of games is that boys would want to buy games that starred girls but for the wrong reasons, then when will the time be right for Lip (or any other girl) to show her face?

It's a very unfortunate catch-22 for female representation in gaming.

Any character who gets in Smash is going to have 100x the amount of rule 34 of a Japanese exclusive puzzle game character any day. If you want it to even begin to be remotely fair, you must only compare them with the exposure they got before being added to Smash. In addition, you should really be doing Japanese search terms for Lip, which I assume you haven't been. They're the ones who have actual reason to care about her.

Not saying this is something against her inclusion or her as a character in any way whatsoever, I just did not like some of the logic you used in your post.

 

[CometX-ing]

Lip & Travis Touchdown

Chances & Want:
Nothing changes for Lip since I last rated her.

Lip

Chances: 5%
By virtue of being a Nintendo character alone does she have a chance. I wouldn't count Lip's Stick as much of anything since that item has been around since like what, Melee? She is a relative unknown in the US due to her games getting re-skinned with Yoshi and Pokemon. Even Puyo Puyo is more likely of getting a rep, at least a few of those games have been released stateside and have Protaganist who have appeared in games in the US. Panel de Pon also as far as I can know lacks the same level of popularity or relevance as other puzzle series like Puyo Puyo or Tetris, even in Japan. Once again, she is a Nintendo character so she has that going for her, but that is about it.

Want: 0%
Nothing against her, I just don't care about Panel de Pon. I never played Yoshi's Avalanche of Pokemon Puzzle League and Lip just don't really care about. That said I wouldn't be bothered by her inclusion, I just have no interest in it. I honestly would rather have Arle Nadja to represent puzzle games.

And nothing changes for Travis

Travis Touchdown
Chances: 10%
Sakurai and Suda51 are buddies, but even that hasn't gotten him in Smash. It's not impossible, but pretty unlikely.

Want: 0%
I never understood the hype for Travis. Not even in a "I don't like this character" way, like genuine confusion kind of way. Travis is just one of those characters that felt like such a random request to me. That said I don't want him.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Lip

Chance: 25% (<-21%)
Relatively irrelevant but attached to a distinguished game, Lip finds herself one of the few retro characters left up for speculation. If Sakurai really loves her game that much, then it's always possible, especially when our only current rep for puzzle games is Dr. Mario.

Want: 10% (<-20%)
Just look at who we're rating tomorrow and then ask me how I feel about the derived version. It's hardly fair, of course - if you're part of the host company, then you've got a better shot than anyone who isn't, no matter how much better they do your job - but that's how I feel about it.


Travis Touchdown
Chance: Abstain (<- 5%)
Want: Abstain (<- Abstain)
A second-rate name who was recognized on the Wii mostly because there wasn't anything else non-Nintendo to recognize. Bayonetta already takes up the role of the stylized action character, so that's going to be his main competition in terms of what he brings to the roster.

NMH's humor seems as YMMV as ever, so no changes there.

Predictions:
Arle: 2%
Qbby: 16%

Nominations:
Ninten x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Yesh! That's it. I love that smug smile and all the flavors of Marth! Haha. I actually found it on my computer to, I apparently saved it. Thanks for digging it up as well.

Glad to help!

-----

Lip:
Chance: 5%
She's a Japan-exclusive from two decades ago. Her series has more-or-less left her in the past with numerous itinerations lacking her presence. I just don't see her having the fan demand to get her in, so a Sakurai retro pick is her only chance, and even having a retro character in general seems iffy now.

Want: 60%
A fan had convinced me of how she could be super unique and fun back in the days before Brawl, so I always was welcoming of her. However, there are just now so many more characters I would rather see.

-----

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 10%
He's got a new game coming and his series is pretty loyal to Nintendo. I don't think his fanbase is that huge, so it looks like others will make it in before him. I would have said the same about Bayonetta, so who knows?

Want: 25%
I know zilch about him or his games. The crude humor could be fun, but may not work if watered down to fit with Smash.

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Lip
Chance: 5%
Her staff is in the game. They might decide to add the rest of her.

Want: 30%
More cute girls are always appreciated.

Travis
Chance: 1%
He's got a new switch game coming out so that's something.

Want: 100%
I know nothing about him other than he's an anime swordsman, and that's enough for me.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[Souldin]

Oh gosh; work and such has kept me busy so I have missed a few of these. Today's Rate Your Chances though, no way do I want to miss out on this one. I've yet to read through what others have rated them, but I'll do so after my own voting.

Lip (Panel De Pon/Puzzle League series)
Chance: 50%
Okay, so I know what some of you may be thinking, that a 50% chance is a tad high. I'll admit, I was going to give Lip's chances a 40% or 45% at first, but then I realised that outside of a new game being released (oh how I wish), this looks to be her best chance. Lip already benefits from many factors; unique move-set potential, proper puzzle series representation, multiple games in her series (even if she didn't star in many of them), a dedicated fanbase which have voted for her in the ballot (helped out by how many other popular retro choices were in as Assist Trophies... ironically potentially lowering their votes in the ballot), lead female protagonist, a fighting mechanic possibly already established (her weapon, the Lip's Stick, with it's flower affect), etcetera. Adding to all that though is the benefit of far fewer Retro choices for characters. Sakurai likes to add one, and along with Balloon Fighter and Excitebiker, I'd Lip is amongst the top 3 most likely at this stage. With a retro inclusion likely as always, and fewer picks to go with (the most expected one has already been revealed as an Assist Trophy), Lip's chances are really bolstered at this stage in time.

I also feel she has gained an extra boost in relevance, not just through the Animal Crossing outfit and game cameo, but also thanks to Miiverse. I noticed many people unlocking the beta Panel De Pon mode in Pokémon Puzzle Challenge's virtual console release, with awareness of Lip being spread quite a bit on Miiverse thanks to that. So yeah, I'm willing to state a 50% chance for Lip, though I might be a little bit biased because...

Want: 100%
After Brawl, with King Dedede and Meta Knight added, Lip rose to the spot of my most wanted character. Other characters close to her in terms of want such as Ridley and Little Mac have already gotten in, leaving Lip as my completely uncontested number 1. Now I really want other characters playable such as Dillon, but my desire to see him playable is not nearly to the same level as Lip.

I've been a fan of her series, albeit, someone who isn't very good at it. I've been a fan of her item, ever since it was introduced in Melee. I've been a fan of Lip, ever since I found out about her during my research days of Brawl. Lip has a charming design, a colourful world and plenty of potential for a move-set. Be it taking advantage of the Lip's Stick functionalities it now has thanks to being introduced as an item to techniques referencing her puzzle series origins such as rising stacks and throwing down larger Garbage Blocks due to additional mechanics (I've had many possibilities to how this could work, hence the vague term). Lip stands as the last of my absolutely most desired characters for SSB. Maybe others will rise up alongside her at some stage, but for now, Lip's inclusion is the one that would give me the greatest joy.

Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes series)
Chance: 20%
Bayonetta got in, so Mature rated obstacles are less of an issue... though how Travis charges his energy sword is a lot harder to hide. No More Heroes and Suda51 seem to have a decent relationship with Nintendo, so I wouldn't rule it out of the realm of possibilities, though I feel other 3rd parties would take precedence.

Want: 10%
Again, not a fan of 3rd parties inclusions, though Travis would be a fun character. If we have to get another 3rd party character though, there are others I'd prefer.

Nominations: x10 Fatal Frame Protagonist (are we still allowed 10 nominations? If not, just count this as 5 please)

 

[ShinyRegice]

Lip chances: 2.75%
I originally missed this character's day, so I'm not gonna copy-paste anything about her. She's pretty much in the same spot as Takamaru in the sense that's she's a retro unknown to the West. He got denied a place in the playable roster a second time after appearing in the previous Smash, so don't count on Lip's Stcik appearance in previous Smash games as something that would make her more well-known to the general audienc. An advantage she has is that I'm pretty sure this Lip's Stick item has not been seen yet, so she could have a chance on that front.

Lip want: 5%
I'm not familiar with the character and I'm not particularly interested. I could easily do without her and instead Lip's Stick returning as an item.

Travis chances: 1.35%
What I wrote for his day:

Although he's faithful to Nintendo, he's a fairly niche character, and I don't think he stands out enough to be a serious contender demand-wise. He's in competition with many other third-parties and is probably going to be low on the priority list among them if there at all.

Mostly yhe same as last time, but since I now choose to slightly lower the scores of third-parties not owned by a company not already involved in Smash, I give him a lower score than last time.

Travis want: 19%
Only because I have a friend who has No More Heroes 2 I have slightly more interest in him than many other third-parties I have no connection to. But overall I don't think he's the kind of character who should be added to Smash.

Arle Nadja prediction: 15.60%
Qbby prediction: 29.24%

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x10 (or x5 if the x10 for everyone time is over, when does it end TCT~Phantom ? basically asking the same question as in the post above)

 

[Kitty-chan]

Lip

Chance: 20%
With Takamaru out of the way, I see her chances better nyao. She is pretty popular nyaa~ However she is still obscure and I'm nyot very confidant we're gonya see a retro nyucomer this time nya. Nyalso, she's competing with Arle nya. And I'd doubt we'll get both mew.

Want: 40%
Opinion hasn't changed, though I increased the percentage because I think 25% was a bit too low nya. I don't dislike her, she's kinda cute nya~ But I'm all for Arle nya~


Travis Touchdown

Chance: 5%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. Creator is buddy buddy or something with Sakurai, and a nyu game is coming to the switch nya. But I don't believe that's really enough for his inclusion nyaa~

Want: 5%
Opinion hasn't changed nya! I don't give a damn nya! Better than some other characters we've done, so that's why he's nyot 0% or 1% nyaaa~


Nyominations
Tingle: x5

 

[『SwingingStar』]

Yo, newbie here, but I figure this time's as good as any to start.

Lip​

Chances: 40%

Kinda optimistic, in all honesty, but I feel like she's in an unique position out of all the retro characters. For one, she's Japan only, not unlike how Takamaru was, and Sable, Sukapon and others still are, however, her game's not. Tetris Attack/Puzzle League was an SNES classic, and in general, a series, that's fondly remembered by quite a few people; it's probably the best of all of Gunpei's puzzle games. So she's got like, half a leg up from the rest of the Japan only characters, in that sense.

Going from that, you've got a series with a nice legacy of games, some tons of people would remember fondly, but your only way to represent them is either through characters already in the game, who've got no connection to their portrayal in this series, or through the original characters of Panel de Pon. So there's something Lip as a character can do, even for the audience that would not quite recognize her.

Another peculiarity is that, for all her game is not all that relevant nowadays, Panel de Pon was on the SFC Mini, which released under a year ago, and that's probably a barometer for how Nintendo views the game as part of their catalogue. For reference, neither Nazo no Murasamejou, nor Joy Mech Fight, or even Mach Rider got into the Famicom/NES Mini. To complicate the issue further, while Japan got their Panepon, Tetris Attack was not in the SNES Classic or the Virtual Console, and it won't ever be, for that mater, since the Tetris Company feels like giving away the name for the game was a boneheaded decision they'd never agree to again. So nowadays, Panel de Pon is a game they can reference freely, but Tetris Attack is doomed to legal purgatory.

Thirdly, given all things were equal, she covers a few roles Smash has tried to cover for a while now, being a female character from a series not so oriented
to a "core" audience, and having a Magical Girl/Mahou Shoujo influenced design, she's the only female "Kid Hero" character Nintendo could add to smash, considering you've got:

As uniquely boy wonders:

• The Mother boys
• Young Link in all of two different shaders
• Maybe Pit and Dark Pit

As gender neutral kid characters:

• The Pokemon Trainers
• The Squid Kids
• Maybe the Villagers (they do live by themselves and hold Political Power)

She and Ashley are probably the only defined Girl characters they have on hand.
EDIT: as it turns out, some sites claim Ashley's age as 15 or even 18, if so, then Lip's case is even rarer for a Nintendo character.

Want: (SEE EDIT) New value: 100% Original: 90%

She's an unique character, from an unique game. Panel de Pon is such an obvious work of love, you can see it in all the artwork and design that went into it. The music, the visuals, the charm, it's all so quintessentially Nintendo, and yet it's not quite like anything else Nintendo has done in all their years. That's exactly why they should embrace it, they've seen time and again how resting on the tried an true paints them into a corner, the Nintendo that was unwilling to stick by it, is not the one that would've tried different things like Splatoon; and the market has shown which one makes more sense.

Less pretentiously, Magic oriented characters are all great in Smash, and Lip having a powerset oriented around wand use, flower magic, and terrain and positional manipulation feels like she could have a moveset that only a game so varied in design like Smash Bros could capture. A character that can create platforms or cover in a stage would be pretty unique from a more competitive aspect.

Also, the game's got some really good music besides Lip's Theme, Smash could use some more of it.

Travis Touchdown​

Chances: 15% (45% Conditionally)

If Suda's willing to pester Sakurai for him, then he's got a something riding for him. His series has kinda been in the dumps for a while now, so I dont see him being on Sakurai's mind back when the project started. However, I could see him being a DLC character if Travis Strikes Again does well, and NMH 3 goes back to being a Nintendo Exclusive. God knows nobody else is humoring them.

Want: 50%

For how bizarre and low brow the series can be, I can enjoy it for those same reasons, and the same goes for it's unique MC. He's got wrestling moves, and his unorthodox sword fighting skills, that could make for an interesting take on the kinda played out sword wielding archetype. Besides that, he's from such a bizarre series, with such an unique style to it, his unfitting appearance to the average of the cast would be a nice look on him. I ain't crazy for him, but wouldn't at all mind him being in.

Sheesh this post grew long

EDIT: After some consideration, about how to manage the 0-100 scale, I've changed my mind. If allowed, I'd modify Lip's Want value to a 100%. If it's not allowed, use it's previous value of 90%.

 

[Smasher 101]

Lip

Chance: 1%
(Previous score: 3%)

I just don't see it happening personally. Thanks to her series being rebranded constantly she's fairly obscure outside of Japan, and there's plenty of other more known retro characters out there. I also think we probably won't get a retro this time. I believe the garbage block cameos and the item will continue to be the franchise's main representation.

Want: 90%

Having said that she's my top choice for a retro character. I like her design and enjoy Panel de Pon/Puzzle League, and I think a puzzle based fighter would be pretty interesting.

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 5%
(Previous score: 10%)

His creator being friends with Sakurai is the main thing going for him, and I'm not sure that's enough in his case. No More Heroes isn't as big of a name as other third parties, I doubt Travis was a super popular choice himself, and the next game almost certainly came too late to do anything for base roster. Cutting his score in half because with limited space I don't see him being a high priority. Maybe as DLC, but pretty unlikely for the base roster.

Want: 0%

No connection to or interest in him or his series, not a big enough name to convince me otherwise, far too many third parties I'd rather have, and overall a rather poor fit for Smash. Not a character for me.

Nominations: Tails x5/x10, whichever

 

[Slyshock]

Any character who gets in Smash is going to have 100x the amount of rule 34 of a Japanese exclusive puzzle game character any day. If you want it to even begin to be remotely fair, you must only compare them with the exposure they got before being added to Smash.

Spoiler: Hidden for those who don't care

That's why I posted percentages alongside raw numbers. Smash multiplies every sort of fan art, unless data shows otherwise I don't see why there'd be more R-18 content created from it than anything else. Some of my favorite pictures are those behind-the-scenes "Smash mansion" types of images that show the fighters going about their daily lives together, those are only drawn once you're in Smash.

In addition, you should really be doing Japanese search terms for Lip, which I assume you haven't been. They're the ones who have actual reason to care about her.

I don't see why you'd assume that, I included the search terms I used in my post. I had to use パネルでポン (panerudeponn) because リップ (rippu) overlaps with the body part. There is a tag which refers to the Lip from Panel de Pon specifically in リップ(パネポン), but it's drastically underused in comparison and thus doesn't properly reflect the amount of illustrations Lip receives. While using the Panel de Pon tag is also inaccurate as far as Lip specifically is concerned, most of the largely female cast are designed similarly to her so the same concerns were relevant.

Not saying this is something against her inclusion or her as a character in any way whatsoever, I just did not like some of the logic you used in your post.

That's good to hear, hopefully this post clears things up for you.

 

[Erureido]

Wait, so we've been allowed to have 10 nominations for some time, or was it just starting today? Seems like I should've been more attentive.

Well, depending on whether or not we are still doing 10 nominations for today, I'll bump up my previous Phoenix Wright nominations from earlier to 10. If this 10 nomination-week has been going on earlier, I'd like to know when it started, because I can calculate how many unused nominations I have right now if it turns out to be that case.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yo, newbie here, but I figure this time's as good as any to start.

Lip​

Chances: 40%

Kinda optimistic, in all honesty, but I feel like she's in an unique position out of all the retro characters. For one, she's Japan only, not unlike how Takamaru was, and Sable, Sukapon and others still are, however, her game's not. Tetris Attack/Puzzle League was an SNES classic, and in general, a series, that's fondly remembered by quite a few people; it's probably the best of all of Gunpei's puzzle games. So she's got like, half a leg up from the rest of the Japan only characters, in that sense.

Going from that, you've got a series with a nice legacy of games, some tons of people would remember fondly, but your only way to represent them is either through characters already in the game, who've got no connection to their portrayal in this series, or through the original characters of Panel de Pon. So there's something Lip as a character can do, even for the audience that would not quite recognize her.

Another peculiarity is that, for all her game is not all that relevant nowadays, Panel de Pon was on the SFC Mini, which released under a year ago, and that's probably a barometer for how Nintendo views the game as part of their catalogue. For reference, neither Nazo no Murasamejou, nor Joy Mech Fight, or even Mach Rider got into the Famicom/NES Mini. To complicate the issue further, while Japan got their Panepon, Tetris Attack was not in the SNES Classic or the Virtual Console, and it won't ever be, for that mater, since the Tetris Company feels like giving away the name for the game was a boneheaded decision they'd never agree to again. So nowadays, Panel de Pon is a game they can reference freely, but Tetris Attack is doomed to legal purgatory.

Thirdly, given all things were equal, she covers a few roles Smash has tried to cover for a while now, being a female character from a series not so oriented
to a "core" audience, and having a Magical Girl/Mahou Shoujo influenced design, she's the only female "Kid Hero" character Nintendo could add to smash, considering you've got:

As uniquely boy wonders:

• The Mother boys
• Young Link in all of two different shaders
• Maybe Pit and Dark Pit

As gender neutral kid characters:

• The Pokemon Trainers
• The Squid Kids
• Maybe the Villagers (they do live by themselves and hold Political Power)

She and Ashley are probably the only defined Girl characters they have on hand.

Want: 90%

She's an unique character, from an unique game. Panel de Pon is such an obvious work of love, you can see it in all the artwork and design that went into it. The music, the visuals, the charm, it's all so quintessentially Nintendo, and yet it's not quite like anything else Nintendo has done in all their years. That's exactly why they should embrace it, they've seen time and again how resting on the tried an true paints them into a corner, the Nintendo that was unwilling to stick by it, is not the one that would've tried different things like Splatoon; and the market has shown which one makes more sense.

Less pretentiously, Magic oriented characters are all great in Smash, and Lip having a poweset oriented around wand use, flower magic, and terrain and positional manipulation feels like she could have a moveset that only a game so varied in design like Smash Bros could capture. A character that can create platforms or cover in a stage would be pretty unique from a more competitive aspect.

Also, the game's got some really good music besides Lip's Theme, Smash could use some more of it.

Travis Touchdown​

Chances: 15% (45% Conditionally)

If Suda's willing to pester Sakurai for him, then he's got a something riding for him. His series has kinda been in the dumps for a while now, so I dont see him being on Sakurai's mind back when the project started. However, I could see him being a DLC character if Travis Strikes Again does well, and NMH 3 goes back to being a Nintendo Exclusive. God knows nobody else is humoring them.

Want: 50%

For how bizarre and low brow the series can be, I can enjoy it for those same reasons, and the same goes for it's unique MC. He's got wrestling moves, and his unorthodox sword fighting skills, that could make for an interesting take on the kinda played out sword wielding archetype. Besides that, he's from such a bizarre series, with such an unique style to it, his unfitting appearance to the average of the cast would be a nice look on him. I ain't crazy for him, but wouldn't at all mind him being in.

Sheesh this post grew long

Holy cow, for a newbie, you put more time and thought into your post than people who’ve been here forever. Welcome to Smashboards!

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Lip
Chance: 10%
She's at least already represented in the game in some way, so I'm not going to give her a zero. But the character is still Japanese only and I'm not sure she's even been used in Japan recently.
Want: 0%
Don't dislike the character but have no attachment.

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 10%
I don't think it's happening. He's a third party character I really don't see getting in over other third parties. I'm also a little confused, is he an ubisoft character? If that's the case I don't think he'd get in over Rayman. I wouldn't say it's impossible though.
Want: 0%
I really don't know who Travis Touchdown is, but I don't really like the little I've heard.

 

[Tikivoy]

Lip: Chance: 15%. Ballot gives me abit of hope.
Want: 100% Love the character and her series.

Travis Touchdown: Chance: Abstain.
Want: 80% Still need to play his games, but I do think he'd be a good addition.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Lip (Panel de Pon)
Chance: 10%
- She’s an unknown character outside Japan but she’s a first-party character.
Want: 18%
- Not a priority but Lip being in Smash could also revive the Panel de Pon series.

Travis
Chance: 8%
- Unlikely. He’s not nearly on the same level as PAC-MAN, Ryu, Mega Man or Cloud.
Want: 13%
- His playstyle could totally work but he’s not a priority.

Predictions
Arle: 11%
Qbby: 6.5%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[GoodGrief741]

Lip
Chance: 10%
She's at least already represented in the game in some way, so I'm not going to give her a zero. But the character is still Japanese only and I'm not sure she's even been used in Japan recently.
Want: 0%
Don't dislike the character but have no attachment.

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 10%
I don't think it's happening. He's a third party character I really don't see getting in over other third parties. I'm also a little confused, is he an ubisoft character? If that's the case I don't think he'd get in over Rayman. I wouldn't say it's impossible though.
Want: 0%
I really don't know who Travis Touchdown is, but I don't really like the little I've heard.

No More Heroes is owned by Grasshopper Manufacture and Suda51, Ubisoft just published the second game in North America.

 

[wildvine47]

Been a while, RTC thread! Ready to get back on this now though that irl stuff isn't constantly happening.

Lip

Chance: 15% - Has a shot as the retro rep, but if Takamaru couldn't get that spot, I don't know if she can either. Excitebiker has the much better resume as of right now, but Sakurai loves his surprises, so I can't entirely count her out.

Want: 40% - Indifferent to her. Prefer Excitebiker though, so I'd rather the spot go to them.

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 5% - He gives off serious Bayonetta vibes to me, but unlike her, I don't think Travis has the chops to make it. His series is even smaller than hers, and despite his creator's constant badgering, hasn't gotten so much as a trophy in Smash. He could blindside me like Bayonetta did, but I don't think he's got anywhere near enough fans to win a ballot. Or for Sakurai to believably say he won one. Ah well.

Want: 0% - No thank you. This guy would stand out like a sore thumb worse than Bayo does, and I don't want devs to get the idea that if they beg and pester Sakurai enough, their character can get in. Plus, I don't want the content of his game to show up. The animation for recharging his lightsaber is basically him jerking it off. I don't want to see that in a Smash Bros. game at all.

Prediction

Arle: 9.21%
Qbby: 7.33%

With roster slots being supposedly tighter this time around, these two have far less of a shot than before. Arle is a "literally who" in anywhere that isn't Japan and Qbby is definitely not a big-ticket item, which is likely what Sakurai's going to be focusing more on. I think both are far better suited for Assist Trophies than anything else.

Nominations:

Scorpion x 5

 

[andimidna]

Lip:
I’d put her after Excitebiker ig but not by too much since it’s hard to guess the retro picks. It’s easier to just know the options and rate the likelihood of a retro character itself, which is probably at its lowest in the series but still slightly above 50 for me
Chance: 14%
Want: 90%
Puzzle character is a cool concept

Travis Touchdown:
I think he’d be able to fit perfectly fine, but it comes down to competition for 3rd parties on the base roster with less newcomers. It’s just hard to imagine him having that priority for me
Chance: 7%
Want: 50%

Pre:
Qbby: 7.75%
Arle: 13%

x5 Style Savvy Character

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day will be extended until tomorrow due to 4th of July keeping me busy.

Carry on.

 

[MrElectroG64]

Lip

Chance: 20%
I'm not sure about how good her chances are. she would definitely have to be the "retro character" of this game, though some things might prevent her from appearing, such as the Lip's Stick item seemingly being back, as well as Kirby's down B having one of the blocks she moves in her game, though I doubt that last one would really affect her much at all.

Want: 5%
Never played her game, nor do I really have any desire to, but she seems like she'd be an interesting fighter, so who knows.


Travis Touchdown

Chance: 5%
His chances aren't good. He has quite a few things against him, such as his series being quite unknown around the world, even in Japan. As well as simply being a third party. These two points also somewhat bounce off eachother as well, in that one definitely makes the other worse.

Want: 1%
really not interested in the character. Haven't played his games either, but unlike Lip, I can't really imagine Travis being that interesting of a fighter. At least in a way we've never seen before.


Nominations: Louie x5

 

[DaUsername]

Double abstain.

Arle prediction: 9%
Qbby prediction: 7%
Noms: Ken x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wyoming I would cap noms off at the end of Arle and Qbbys day. We have one more structured day after that.

Also expect calcs today and tomorrow.

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nomations: post-Travis de Pon, pre-something

Leon Kennedy x427
Slippy Toad x346
Tingle x341
Smash Run x325
Lloyd Irving x295
Concept: Monster Hunter character x285
Sakura Shinguji x283


Over 200:

Neku Sakaruba x275
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x262
Fawful x259
Parabo & Satebo x254
Kamek x247
Wonder Red x242
Tetra x239
Ryu Hayabusa x235
Tails x235
Linkle x225
Thwomp x221
Scorpion x216
Primarina x215
Labo Guy/Robot x205
Katrielle Layton x200



199-150

Ayumi Tachibana x192
Ray x188
Balloon Fighter x185
DeMille x183
Papyrus x175
Django x175
Dragonite x162
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Treehouses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Tsubasa Oribe x150
Louie x150
Concept: Female Announcer x150

149-100

Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x130*
Barbara x122
Nikki x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
2B x111
Susie x104
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x103
Neptune x102
Rowlet x100
Raiden x100



99-75

Viewtful Joe x95
Gooey x94
Concept: Hanafuda character x89
Klonoa x87
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x85
Nihilego x85
Tora & Poppi x82
Incineroar x80
Fjorm x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x70
Rick/Coo/Kine x69
Viridi x67
Yu Narakumi x66
Breidablik Item x65
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Concept: Style Savvy character x63
Ninten x63
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x60
Concept: All-Star Versus x59
Slime x58
Concept: Wars character x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50

49-26:

Rhythm Girl x40
Chorus Kids x35
Concept: Chun-Li as an assist trophy x35
Ken x32
Concept: More than five unique newcomers x30
Tapu Koko x30
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x30
Medusa x30
Edelgard x25

Under 25:

Master Chief x10
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x10
Xenoblade X Avatar/Cross x10
[Rerate] Spyro x10
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x10
Concept: SR388 stage x5
Alm x5
Nia x5
Stage: Poke Floats x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Earthworm Jim x5

If anyone nominates after this post, I'll update this list until the new day begins.

Changes:

Monster Hunter is in the top 7 into 6th, dislodging Neku out of it.
Katrielle Layton breaks 200 noms
Louie and Female Announcer break 150 noms
Raiden breaks 100 noms
Ken and Edelgard break 25 noms
New additions: Earthworm Jim (x5), and a rerating of Phoenix Wright (x5)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lip
20% chance
80% Want

Want is for her fans. They have been through a lot. They deserve it. As for Chance a solid chance due to there not being too many retros as competition.

Travis
Abstain chance
100% want

Tbh I don’t know how to rate this as it could skip through the cracks, even if I think third parties as a whole are unlikely. Love the games though. A friend of mine also really wants him .


Day over, calcs will be out after I get back from dmv.


Today we got Arle Nadja and Qbby. Tomorrow we got the concepts of a gen 7 newcomer, an arms character, and a rh newcomer. Rate and predict.

 

[Deleted member]

Quadraple abstain

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Another Literally Who

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

I stand by my assertion that Nintendo All-Stars should be known to most people, and that goes doubly for third-parties. If you’re not iconic, you have no business being in Smash, no matter how popular you are in one locale.

So, from what I understand, Arle is basically a more-popular-yet-third-party Lip. And really only popular in Japan. As Takamaru has shown, being unknown in one region outside of Smash isn't enough to get you into Smash. I'd bring in Tails as a next Sega rep - at least everyone knows him. Scores stand.

Don't give me ideas

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Based on the stuff packaged inside the Qbby thread, I can see that this blockhead does have some potential, but I'm still not seeing it. He checks all of the boxes that the Tetrominoes do, but is left in the same area: moveset potential does take a lot of thinking outside the box to even get ideas for. Sure, you could always have autogeneration of more pop-up boxes, but that is tough to translate into a workable boxing match.

Now, if we were going to talk about potential assists, there's something. A character who could build random blocks and platforms while moving around would be a perfect example of what we get from assists. It'd be crate for some characters who need more platforms, or a block for others - look at Helirin (or Hererin, as Melee spelled it) in Brawl. If I were to get on my soapbox for a bit: I think we should be considering more characters as assists or even some more stage concepts (Tetris would be a perfect stage). Even if Qbby's not fighter material, he can still prove that it's hip to be a square.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to burn this post.

Scores stand here as well.

Nom: Tails x5

 

[ZTurtle]

Abstaining from Arle Nadja cause I honestly have no idea who she is and what her chances could be.

Qbby:
Chance: 15%
Box Boy has been given somewhat decent attention by Nintendo, and his games are pretty well received as far as I'm aware. Don't know about how requested he is for Smash though. I don't think that he's got quite enough notoriety to make it with these limited character slots, but hey, anything is possible.

Want: 55%
Eh, he's cute and charming, and I like HAL Laboratory's work. Wouldn't be super thrilled if he got in, but I wouldn't be upset either.

 

[AlphaSSB]

1% Chance for both
0% Want for both

I've really nothing to add to either one of these characters.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 3%
Virtually unknown anywhere that isn’t Japan, and unlike other Japan only characters she doesn’t really have a Smash following (or any western following at all, at least from my perception).
Want: 0%
It’s not a hate 0, it’s a I have no reason whatsoever to want her in 0. Give me Lip any day.

Qbby
Chance: 10%
He’s taken a hit, but he might still make it. He has the potential, and when the project plan was made BoxBoy was an ongoing series.
Want: 100%
Give me my boy. I want my boy.

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Arle:
Chance: 1%
Lip's chance wasn't looking too good, so a Third-party version will fare even worse. Her popularity is pretty much non-existent, so the demand isn't there either.

Want: 0%
I love Puyo Puyo, but she comes off as one of those characters Sakurai would have to fabricate an entire moveset for since she really doesn't do anything. If anything, an assist that plays round of Puyo on the battlefield with the falling blobs damaging fighters would make more sense for her.

------

Qbby
Chance: 5%
I don't think he or his series is all that popular, so demand isn't going to help him. He could still be one of those out-of-the-blue picks like Wii Fit Trainer, but it's not likely.

Want: Abstain
I don't know enough about Boxy Boy to know if I want content from it or not.

 

[Opossum]

Qbby

Chance: 5%
Less newcomers makes this take a bit of a hit, but still a decent dark horse. Plus shapeshifters are neat.
Want: 50%
Qbby is adorable.


Arle Nadja
Chance: 0%
The definition of a Literally Who third party for anyone outside of Japan. If we get another SEGA character, it'll be a second Sonic character, I'm sure of it.

Want: 0%
She doesn't interest me at all. Movesets I've seen also seem really forced.


Predicting a 65 for Alola, 37 for ARMS, and a 28 for Rhythm Heaven

Nominating Reinhardt Trophy x5

 

[Deleted member]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 10%
Want: abstain

Qbby
Chance: 15%
Want: abstain


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Gen 7 newcomer prediction: 73.09%
ARMS character prediction: 64.12%
Rhythm Heaven prediction: 44.14%

 

[CometX-ing]

Qbby & Arle Nadja

My opinion on Qbby didn't change

Qbby
Chances: 10%
He has a chance purely because he is relativily recent and a Hal character. Beyond that I see nothing going for him.

Want: 0%
Had to google the name just to find out that the Box from Boxboy had a name. That should tell you how much I actually care about him.

Arle Chances: 40%
I could have sworn I rated her before, but I can't find it. In terms of being a Sega rep, it's unlikely since she would be a third rep (even though I say Bayonetta's status as a sega rep is debatable). But if they did add one she would be a likely choice given that Puyo Puyo is popular as **** in Japan and isn't a complete unknown in the US since Puyo Pop was released a while back. Still though, without precident I can't rate her higher than a 40.

Want: 75%
I'm a huge Sonic fan, but even I don't want another Sonic character when Sega has so many other franchises to represent. Arle could have to a unique moveset involving magic and Puyo, representing both her status of as the protagonist of the Madou Monogatari series and the Puyo Puyo series.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Arle Nadja

Since folks seem to be abstaining on her again, here's a primer I wrote on her previously.

Arle Nadja

"Hang on, who?"
Hold those abstain votes, user, and let me tell you about Arle's shot at all this.

Arle Nadja is the main character of an old franchise called Madou Monogatari, way back in 1989. It was kinda-typical dungeon crawler of its time that nevertheless had some decent quirks of its own, and did relatively well. Then its creators, Compile, had the idea using the game's setting and characters for their newest game, a take on a competitive kind of falling-blocks game. This would become Arle's new home: Puyo Puyo, which released in 1991 in arcades and on most consoles.

Puyo Puyo would turn out to be a relatively big deal in an age when falling-block puzzles had thought that endless modes would be their only ceiling. Puzzle games didn't have inclinations towards any sort of competitive multiplayer modes until Puyo Puyo showed that clearing blocks was a lot more fun when you were trying to mess up someone else with the same goals as you. This inspired a glut of copycats (and that's as much as any franchise can claim when it wants to claim "impact"), including NIntendo's own Panel de Pon.

So Arle's pretty old, compared to most candidates, and she's made her mark on the industry too. But here's something most historical franchises don't have: she's still well alive to this day! Although Puyo Puyo's since transferred from its bankrupted owner to its technical collaborator Sega, it makes enough bank to be their most profitable non-Sonic franchise! It's got its own popular mobile game, constant entries every five-year anniversary, and even a crossover with Tetris that you might've seen on the Switch store, or on Steam.

If ownership wasn't an object, Arle would be one of the best, if not the best, character you could pick for a puzzle game representative. And that's not just because of history, and not just because Arle did some work as an RPG character before - it's because Puyo Puyo is both a pioneer and example of competitive depth in a video game, the very depth that keeps it alive to this day. (What? You thought it was just because of the anime girls?) Being good at Puyo Puyo requires strategy, reaction, foresight, taking advantage of opportunity, and plenty of on-hands learning - things that translate really well into a fighting game! Arle isn't just a fighter for her own sake, but a conduit of her game's playstyle itself.

So why now? Because Smash 4 has since shown us that it's more than fine for a company to have more than one third-party representative, and then it showed us that it doesn't have to be that company's most iconic property to get in. Not to mention, Western recognition of Puyo Puyo is finally on the upswing, meaning that we finally have discussions like these. And even if she doesn't get it now, her consistent presence in her home country means that Puyo Puyo is likely going to stick around on the discussion table for as long as Smash says it's possible.


"Okay, well, if this 'Arle' is so great, how come this is the first time I've ever heard of her being on the discussion table?"
(It's true. I've looked at past RTC threads, and not one of them gave a day to Arle Nadja.)

For starters, there's the whole third-party thing. Arle's had all these pluses since before the first Smash game, but any timeline where she got in before Sonic did was inconceivable. And even after Brawl, she wasn't going to be a candidate until we knew more about the laxness of the possible third-party candidacies.

The biggest gate, though, is that while plenty of Japanese franchises have made the osmosis into Western perception over the past two decades, Puyo Puyo has managed to not be one of them. In the period of time that its original games could have been ported over into the West, Sega and Nintendo decided to instead dress up the ports with their own franchises, leaving the West none the wiser. Sega tried another localization during the GBA era, which had about as much impact as any other GBA game not from an established franchise, and then promptly gave up until the Switch era. Puyo Puyo never actually entered the West as itself before Sega came and restyled it, leaving Arle Nadja in the same boat as pre-Melee Marth for the longest time.

There's also the fact that Sega is unlikely to push this character themselves. They'll make some crossovers between it and its own franchises, or with a similar puzzle giant, but...well, you know Sonic's racing crossover games? They've got almost everyone from every one of Sega's weird, iconic, and obscure franchises - and Puyo's not one of them. Bank or no bank, Puyo Puyo is ultimately an adopted franchise, one that made its own historicity without Sega's input on the matter. The artstyle may be Sega's, but the gameplay itself still revolves around Compile's original work, as does Arle. They've tried to push her out of the limelight twice, only to bring her back anyway because people in Japan simply remembered her too well.

But even with her enduring popularity, Arle is simply not in the big leagues of icons - or else you probably wouldn't be reading this for info. She's not what Ryu is to fighting games, or what Cloud is to RPGs - that'd go to Tetris. And maybe that's because of her lack of Western recognition or presence, or because she started out as an RPG character only to be imported to a puzzle game later. But despite her franchise's present-day success, she's still asking upwards to Nintendo and Sakurai to consider her as a character, similar to many others below her.

"So, why are you supporting her?"

If you ask me...Puyo Puyo is a rare example of a game enduring thanks to its gameplay, like Tetris before it. The game's gone through ownership change, artsyle change, and all manner of additions that would've killed other games for being too off-beat. But Puyo Puyo is still alive after almost three decades, and it's still kicking in Japan, and that might be the fascinating thing about it from an observer's perspective. How many games can say that their original core gameplay is what keeps them around?

It's no secret that if Arle actually got into Smash, it'd be a clear shot to mimic what happened to Fire Emblem - suddenly, everyone would know your name, and might want to know what kind of game you come from. I'd be interested if that got to happen to a character who's been unfairly region-locked for most of her life, and what that might do to Puyo Puyo as well.

And it isn't as if Arle's just a wave-riding freeloader. She may be a magical girl, but she's got both the guts and firepower to maker her a lot better than others of her character - no stranger to fighting truly horrible things, but still a fountain of retorts in a world that takes itself too seriously. She backhands Satan on a regular basis, how's that not a plus?

Chance: 1% (<- 32%)
Realistically, her best shot now is as an Assist Trophy, and that's not such a terrible idea. Puyo Puyo doesn't have enough international recognition to really belong in an Ultimate Smash Bros, let alone the outcry necessary to bring her onto the table. Still, Arle is far away from what anyone could call a valued part of Nintendo's history (though it's not as if you can really say that about more than half of the third parties already in Smash).

She's really pretty much screwed if Lip gets in, of course, because the two are so similar that the roster could probably accommodate only one of them, unless Sakurai suddenly decides to make one of them an echo of the other. Whereas Lip's key strength is being a Nintendo property, Arle's own strengths are fairly numerous: she starred in a number of even-older RPG games before a puzzle spin-off of those games became more successful, she's got a deep metagame to draw a fighting playstyle from, and, most prominently, her franchise is still alive.

But it'd be really awkward to try and shoehorn Arle in now, and Sakurai's never really mentioned Puyo Puyo before either, so an AT is about the best her fanbase can hope for at this point. Ultimate seems primed to please Smash fans all over the globe, and I can only see Arle really pleasing those who live in home country Japan.

Want; 50% (<- 80%)
I still believe she'd be a cool addition, but when space is this tight for a roster of this size, I'll be gladder to see some fan-favorite third-parties finally get their chance instead.


Rating Qbby later.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Arle Nadja

Chance - 1%

With limited roster space and a likely emphasis on the ballot this time around, I can't really see her getting in. She doesn't really have the worldwide appeal or demand that a lot of other third parties do.

Want - 0%

I like Puyo Puyo just fine, but I have no interest in seeing one of its characters in Smash. A stage would be better.

Qbby

Chance - 1%

He has some relevancy. That's it. He really doesn't have anything else going for him.

Want - 0%

No interest in seeing him in the game. An Assist Trophy would be cool, I guess.