Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Al-kīmiyā']

Lip want: 0%

Her moveset doesn't interest me much. For a puzzle character, I think something like a bubble shooter (e.g. puzzle bobble) would have a better moveset.

Nominations:

Neku x5

 

[VexTheHex]

GARRRRGHghgh

Two of my least wanted together on one day, competing for who I dislike more!!!

Travis Touchdown
Chance - 10%
His maker and Sakurai are known to have talked before. He even mentioned jokingly that he asks Sakurai to add Travis and Sakurai kind of laughs it off. So I think Sakurai isn't that keen on it, but it's possible friendships could get Travis in. He's got mediocre popularity and new game coming up. But the project plan being as early as it ended up being, could very well make Travis too late. His series overall isn't that big.
Want - 0%
His game really turns me off. Gore porn and lots of sexual innuendos. His "sword" battery mechanic was "shaking" off your Wii Remote to charge Travis's sword. He gets saved once cause he gets turned on by a female assassin and his sword activates as she is on top of him and pierces her. I mean that's the type of writing and comedy we get with him, it's just crude for the sake of it. In the first game, he struggled with killing females while murdering men in gruesome ways (sexism, imo) until he got to the old lady that he decapitated without issue. Guess if it isn't your type, you can kill it without regret.

Lip
Chance - 7%
If Takamaru could still fall short, I don't see how this little gal would fare much better. She is basically non-existent in the West. Her series moved on without her as it usually just replaces her with more liked characters. All of her move set potential is made up based on puzzle or fairy cause that's literally all she has going for her as she is a background sprite basically. Still a chance though, she has some cult following. With the possible direction for this game being fan service, this obscure Japan only girl really doesn't hold much water.
Want - 0%
She just feels rather forced. A sprite basically for puzzle games just doesn't interest me. Takamaru was my main retro want, so I honestly am just shut off from retros this go around. And I got some creep vibes from a few of her fans in the past. A little girl wearing a mini-skirt that is "older" cause she is magical just feels like creep bait.

Note - I do want to point out their addition would make some people happy and that's cool. I think I could get use to either of them in the game and possibly play them if I end up enjoying their moves, but they certainly are two that I actually feel a general dislike for them or their addition.

Nominations 5x Monster Hunter

 

[Runic_SSB]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 50%
On one hand, he's from a series that's heavily associated with Nintendo, he has a new game coming out for the Switch at around the same time as Smash Ultimate, and a creator who wants him in Smash and is close to Sakurai. On the other hand, he's a 3rd party character, his series isn't that popular and there aren't going to be as many newcomers as Smash 4.

Want: 100%
Travis Touchdown is easily in my top 3 most wanted characters this time. Ever since I played NMH2 (Wasn't a fan of the first one's gameplay) I've wanted to see him in Smash. Much like with Sora, I wasn't really too hopeful in Smash 4 because I thought he had no chance, but now I'm absolutely hyped as hell.

Lip

Chance: 15%

A fair(l)y popular character from a long-running, respected franchise. The only reason it's so low is because the Puzzle League series isn't exactly pumping out new entries, and they're usually the spin-off ones themed after other series. I'm not taking into consideration the fact that she's mostly Japan exclusive, for reasons I'll go into below.

Want: 50%

I have no emotional attachment to Lip, and the only Puzzle League game I've ever played was Pokemon Puzzle League. However, I definitely think she needs to be put in the game, as reparation for her erasure from the international releases of all her games. It's absolutely criminal that they did that, and it shouldn't count against her chances to be included.

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Spoiler

I believe it's this image.

Yesh! That's it. I love that smug smile and all the flavors of Marth! Haha. I actually found it on my computer to, I apparently saved it. Thanks for digging it up as well.

 

[Erureido]

Double abstaining for today. Can't say much for either character.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5

Funny how the re-rates that were chosen for those last two weeks were characters in the Top 30 for Chance & Want... and Phoenix Wright wasn't chosen for that despite being in the Top 30 for Want. Might as well give him a re-rate then.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Travis Touchdown
Edit: alright, let’s give this guy his due.
Chance: 10%
Not great. Suda51 is kind of seen as a mad gaming auteur, especially in his homeland, so he has enough clout to get looked at. NMH is synonymous with Nintendo. The games have been regarded positively. But nobody seems to really want him, so I can’t assume a good ballot performance (although he likely wasn’t terrible either). He might have good chances for DLC, but not a guarantee either.
Want: 85%
He deserves it.

(Also, the guy saying the games are sexist and immature needs to get a better grasp on the concept of satire. Getting mad at Travis for being sexist and immature is correct, but let’s not act like we were supposed to look up to the otaku assassin.)

Lip
Chance: 33%
The retro rep is her or Sable. She’s been decently but consistently requested for a long time. Japanese exclusivity and obscurity hurts her chances, but unique retro picks are running out and she might have done well in the ballot.
Want: 100%
What can I say? I love retro picks, obscure gaming characters and curious footnotes in gaming history. She could also have a dope moveset.

- Not important to Sakurai personally

Sakurai has referred to Panel de Pon as a masterpiece so you might wanna rethink that.

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5

 

[Slyshock]

Abstaining from Travis Touchdown. He's in a Bayonetta situation where doesn't have much beyond some cult classic exclusives and an eager creator backing him, and I'd rather not judge a character I have little experience with based largely on assumptions about ballot validity and Sakurai's relationships.

Lip

Chance: 7.5%

Chance: 7.5%
Between the new Ultimate information revealed and being introduced to possibilities I hadn't previously considered, I think the positives and negatives balance out to keep Lip's odds the same.

Sakurai has been aware of who Lip is since at least Melee, and has yet to introduce anything about her other than her wand as an item and her garbage block as one of Kirby's rock transformations.

Since then, we've seen Kirby retain the garbage block transformation and the existence of something that easily applies the flower effect has been hinted at.

While I don't believe Lip's Stick being an item once again would harm her chances in the same way that the screw attack didn't harm Samus, the return of the transformation is a bit more ominous. Garbage blocks would absolutely play a notable role in any Lip moveset, so retaining something so similar to it could be a potential source of confusion. It's possible Kirby could have it removed, or Lip would implement them in a way that'd avoid mix-ups, but it's not a good sign regardless.

Takamaru is all but confirmed to be first in line for the privilege of a Smash revival. Although there have been exceptions in the past, Sakurai has stated that he's uncomfortable with the idea of Japan-only newcomers. This was his logic for excluding Takamaru from Smash 4, who has since received an international release. Between Takamaru's re-energized clout and Sakurai's apparent unwillingness to be the one who introduces Lip to the West, this represents yet another closed door.

Takamaru being deconfirmed was a surprise, but just because her most obvious competitor is down and out doesn't mean Lip's won. In fact, it could mean quite the opposite; If Sakurai's attention, notable Smash representation, various references in other games, an official Western release and a global popularity spike weren't enough to make Takamaru playable, what hope does Lip have?

The possibility that the Panel de Pon fanbase showed up to the ballot in large enough numbers to top all other retros is a comforting thought, but making broad assumptions about the ballot is a painful pastime. Not to mention that with the supposed limited roster space, we may not get a retro newcomer at all this time around, let alone one as niche as Lip.

A couple years back, Animal Crossing: New Leaf received a free update. This added, among other things, the following mode:

This new mode is Panel de Pon in all its glory, even equipped with additional ways to play. Furthermore, the unlockable "Flower Fairy" clothing line is the closest Lip has ever been to seeing an official release of her character in the West. The time period this update was released aligns very closely with the time period the Smash 5 roster was decided during. It's far from impossible that Sakurai would've been aware of this, especially since he'd likely already have been investigating Animal Crossing for the sake of giving that franchise another representative.

Unfortunately, it seems that timing wasn't on Lip's side. The update didn't launch until late 2016, several months away from when Sakurai would've been doing his research. If he needed an extra push to consider Lip as playable, it wouldn't have come from here.

It has been suggested, however, that Panel de Pon was introduced in Animal Crossing as a result of the ballot. If it was Sakurai that influenced Animal Crossing rather than vice versa, then that would turn this situation around quite nicely. Even if that specific scenario is just a pipe dream, all is not lost; Between this and Panel de Pon's appearance on the Super Famicom Mini, there must be something in the Nintendo developer water that's keeping the franchise in everyone's thoughts.

Want: 100%
My most wanted since Smash 4 pre-release. While I once wanted Lip purely for the selfish reason of encouraging more Panel de Pon games to be released, everything I've since learned about her has led me to the conclusion that she'd make a stunning addition to the Smash roster regardless. She's everything I desire in a newcomer: Plenty of interesting moveset potential, unique design, ambassador of a huge genre of gaming that's been largely untapped in Smash thus far, represents a previously unrepresented and certainly underappreciated franchise that could really use a new entry, a franchise which I'm more than a little fond of.

Whatever the future may hold for both Panel de Pon and Smash, I'll always hold onto the hope that their destinies will intertwine.

Want: 100%
Amen.

Nominations: Nikki x5

At this point I'm only doing this for the sake of seeing my nominations to the end, but maybe someone will come up with interesting reasoning on her day.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[Opossum]

Double zeroes for Lip. She has the same issue Takamaru did, being a Japan-only retro...and look where he is, despite having an international release now. Not a fan of her either.

Abstaining from Travis' chances, but I'll throw on a 0% for want. He doesn't appeal to me.

Reinhardt trophy x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Sakurai has referred to Panel de Pon as a masterpiece so you might wanna rethink that.

Nah. That was too long ago and was just a passing comment in an interview. I can't consider it anything worth mentioning.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

More rerates...

Tetris Attack

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Lip's been big on these boards for a while, but she has a lot more standing in her way than some people care to admit.

Firstly, she is unknown in the west. Despite her wand and garbage block appearing in Smash, she hasn't even gotten so much as a trophy in any of the smash games. True, we've gotten characters unknown in the west before, but that seems to be an exception rather than a rule. Especially now that Smash is a bigger franchise, Sakurai seems to be more mindful of region-locked releases, which is outright stated as the reason that Little Mac (Brawl) and Takamaru (Sm4sh) were introduced as assists. Her only exposure in the west was a costume in an Animal Crossing game, which doesn't necessarily translate to people knowing everything about her.

Second, her series has been dormant for a while. People are billing her as a retro, but based on Sakurai's comments the retro slot is all but guaranteed to Takamaru at this point. She then also faces stiff competition from Balloon Fighter, Excitebiker, and Mach Rider, with no guarantee that we'll get more than one retro rep - indeed it seems unlikely. Now she did get more exposure relatively recently...in Captain Rainbow, another unexported game, where she and a group of admitted forgotten Nintendo characters helped the hero, so that doesn't change her status much.

Third, her series is a puzzle game, and as such she isn't really seen doing anything other than acting as a background element. That's how it was so easy for NoA to just swap her out for Yoshi without affecting the game at all. Because of that, her moveset potential is weak. Yes, her support thread and yesterday's Nookie discussions have proven that a moveset can be created - that's always the case. But it does require taking a lot of liberties, and that time could be used elsewhere. Not to mention that her stick doesn't necessarily work in Smash the way it does in her home game.

I'd love more stages based on games which may or may not have reps, and puzzle games would make great stages. But before she even thinks about being a playable character, she needs to have a trophy first.

Personally, Lip does nothing for me. She's a bit too bubblegum for me - almost reminds me of something Lisa Frank would come up with. If anyone flower-themed got in, Daisy would be my first choice, and I'd take Takamaru as a retro over anyone else. If you want to introduce her to the west, just give her a trophy and be done with it.

I may have been a bit harsh on her, but I don't think anything's changed for me. But look what time hath wrought.: "Based on Sakurai's comments the retro slot is all but guaranteed to Takamaru at this point." Uhh...well... if in our possibly smaller amount of newcomers we even have a retro 'slot,' it ain't going to Tak. "If anyone flower-themed got in, Daisy would be my first choice." Well, that worked out.

Still, I don't need the Lisa Frank princess in Smash. She really needs to be introduced properly, so I definitely think she should get a trophy finally so we would actually know she exists and isn't just a reskin of a Yoshi game.

Edgemaster

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Man, we're really hitting all of the edge lords lately.

Honestly, I have no attachment to No More Heroes, but from reading his support thread it seems that his character is defined by being super edgy. Can't say I'm a huge fan of that excuse for a personality.

He's third party, which by nature is a hit against him, and he's not exactly iconic to boot. Yes, he's Nintendo exclusive, but that doesn't make you an icon. Add in the fact that his game is not at all timed right, and I can't really see it.

Also, after reading what VexTheHex had to say about his series and gameplay, I can't support him in the slightest.

Yeah, no changes here either. I don't need some edgy dude in, and "lol but he's actually a loser' is something that doesn't translate well into a moveset unless it's Pichu's self-damage. Besides, if we want a dual-wielder, I'd rather Dovahkiin. (Heck, I'd rather Dovahkiin than anyone else for any reason)

And I love looking back to old posts...

Oh man, am I the resident crazy Ridley fan? In that case, I'm calling the Space Pirates for backup. I'm not even expecting him at E3 - that'd imply Sakurai finally listened to the fanbase and made him playable...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nah. That was too long ago and was just a passing comment in an interview. I can't consider it anything worth mentioning.

Still makes something you said untrue. You can’t pick and choose facts.

 

[Sid-cada]

Lip

Chance - 12.5% - With tighter roster spaces, it's harder to say with confidence many characters will get in. Alongside Takamaru's disconfirmation, though, she might have gained a bit of ground as well. With all that said, I'm sligtly increasing her score, if only because Takamaru's discrimination opens up a lot of space.

Want - 75% - She would be fun. A more true puzzle representative would also be nice.


Travis Touchdown

Chance - 20.5% - A whole five points lower, just out of roster cramming. I probably overestimated him, but when I think it comes to indie characters he's probably the most likely choice. Due to his personal connection with Sakurai, and being the represntative of indies at the realese of the switch, if we get an indie it's probably going to be him. Indies are a bit of an if, though...

Want - 40% - There are many character I want more than him, though I don't exactly hate him.


Predictions

Arle Naja - 1.56% - If Lip can't do well...

Qbby - 3.45% - Not likely...

Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Are we going to be done rerating literally everyone soon?

Lip Chance - 3%: She has some semblance of chance as an arbitrary retro rep because Sakurai has made a tradition of those. Still, with limited roster slots I think a retro character would be a bigger waste than ever before and do not see it happening. With limited roster slots obligatory traditions just for the sake of them don't have to keep being carried out. Ice Climbers can be the retro "newcomer."

Lip Want - 6%: I like Panel De Pon and its gameplay, feel nothing for the character. I played her games with Yoshi/Pokemon reskins.

Travis Touchdown Chance - 3%: All he has going for him is his creator said he'd like to see him in Smash, but I mean, so has Super Meat Boy. That's not nearly enough reason. He may have some ballot presence, but he's still a ways down the 3rd party totem pole.

Travis Touchdown Want - Abstain

Nominate Fawful x5/x10

 

[RouffWestie]

Still makes something you said untrue. You can’t pick and choose facts.

I'm going to pick and choose facts because you absolutely should be looking at the context of statements if you're trying to assess how likely a character is. There's no implication of "this is important to Sakurai," when it's just a passing compliment from a very old interview.

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Professor Kid, pre-Lip Touchdown

Leon Kennedy x422
Slippy Toad x341
Tingle x336
Smash Run x315
Lloyd Irving x290
Sakura Shinguji x278
Neku Sakaruba x270


Over 200:

Concept: Monster Hunter character x270
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x262
Fawful x254
Parabo & Satebo x254
Kamek x247
Wonder Red x242
Tetra x239
Ryu Hayabusa x235
Tails x230
Linkle x225
Thwomp x221
Scorpion x211
Primarina x210
Labo Guy/Robot x205



199-150

Katrielle Layton x196
Ray x188
Balloon Fighter x185
DeMille x183
Ayumi Tachibana x182
Papyrus x175
Django x175
Dragonite x157
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Treehouses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Tsubasa Oribe x150

149-100

Louie x145
Concept: Female Announcer x145
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x130*
Barbara x122
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
2B x111
Nikki x110
Susie x104
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x103
Neptune x101
Rowlet x100



99-75

Viewtful Joe x95
Raiden x95
Gooey x94
Klonoa x87
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x85
Concept: Hanafuda character x84
Tora & Poppi x82
Nihilego x80
Fjorm x75
Incineroar x75

74-50


Veronica x73
Rick/Coo/Kine x69
Viridi x67
Yu Narakumi x66
Breidablik Item x65
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x65
Zeraora (Pokémon) x64
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
9-Volt x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x60
Concept: All-Star Versus x59
Concept: Style Savvy character x58
Slime x58
Ninten x57
Concept: Wars character x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50

49-26:

Rhythm Girl x40
Chorus Kids x35
Concept: Chun-Li as an assist trophy x35
Concept: More than five unique newcomers x30
Tapu Koko x30
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x25
Medusa x25

Under 25:

Edelgard x20
Ken x18
Master Chief x10
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x10
Xenoblade X Avatar/Cross x10
[Rerate] Spyro x10
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x10
Concept: SR388 stage x5
Alm x5
Nia x5
Stage: Poke Floats x5

Changes:

Leon Kennedy has done it, he has broken through 400 noms
Smash Run breaks 300 noms, and gets into the top 4 in 4th.
FE Heroes Summoner drops out of the top 7
Tails, Primarina, and Labo Guy break 200 noms
Ayumi Tachibana and Dragonite break 150 noms
Nikki and Neptune break 100 noms
Raiden, Hanufuda, Incineroar, and Nihilego break 75 noms
A concept, Reinhardt and Ninten break 50 noms
Fatal Frame and Medusa break 25 noms
New additions: Poke Floats (x5) and rerating the possibility of a Zelda newcomer (x10)
*Apparently it hasn't been disconfirmed whether or not Bowser, DK, and Diddy can use canon voice clips. I thought it was, but for now I'll bring it back with its 100 nms and the 30 it got after. Someone let me know.

Edit: ignore I am an idiot, there's another pair to go through first.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sakurai plays an immense amount of games and has talked and complimented about them. He has called Punch Out Arcade a classic. He mentions that games like Castlevania impactful during his younger years. And he even praised the first Bayonetta game, complimenting on the fact that no other action game has surpassed Bayonetta in gameplay yet after 3 years of the post-Bayonetta interview. I think Sakurai's comment on Panel de Pon being a masterpiece back in the Smash 64 days would still hold up if he was asked again about PDP again. That would still be a slight, but positive factor to her inclusion in Ultimate, assuming her ballot placement was the highest in terms of retro newcomer candidates.

 

[Wyoming]

Can't say either have changed in likelihood for me. The now potentially sparse amount of newcomers probably reduces their chances if anything. Lip's Stick not being in the demo is something I suppose, but she has the Japanese exclusive hurdle to get through, and that seems difficult unless she scored very highly in Japan to be worth a look at.

Travis suffers from being a rather niche third party character, and unlike Bayonetta, he isn't co-owned by Nintendo to make the transition easier.

Ken x4
Ninten x1

 

[NeonBurrito]

Travis Touchdown

Chance - 1%

His creator wants him in, and that's about it. He isn't iconic, isn't really highly requested, doesn't come from a big franchise, etc. etc. He has just as much chance as Super Meat Boy.

Want - 0%

He's not iconic and I have no attachment to him or his series. No thanks.

Lip

Chance - 1%

I really don't think we'll be getting a retro character this time around, AND even in the case we do, she has to jump the Japanese-only gap, the big reason Takamaru didn't make it in Smash 4, and seemingly in Smash Ultimate as well. I don't see it happening.

Want - 1%

With the low number of newcomers this time around, I'd really rather not see a retro character. If we did, I'd much rather prefer Excitebiker or Mach Rider.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Lip
Chance: 15% - I really don't think we're getting a retro rep this time. But, if we are, with Takamaru out of the running, I'd say Mach Rider and Lip are the only two with a real shot. Lip's popular both in the East and West despite the fact she's only ever officially appeared in Japanese-exclusive. In addition, Nintendo hasn't forgotten the franchise's legacy, as a version of the game plays as a bonus in Animal Crossing: New Leaf, and this was quite, quite recent. She could definitely show up, but I don't think she's a lock by any means.
Want: 50% - She'd be cool. A fairy with flower magic is something we don't really have. It'd be more if I didn't absolutely hate the gameplay of Puzzle League.

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 10% - As a Nintendo exclusive third party with support from his own creator for Smash, it's not unheard of. He's also got an upcoming game, and he could easily get in as a DLC option when Travis Strikes Again shows up. But he may not be the most unique fighter, and he's more niche than every other third party sans maybe Bayonetta.
Want: 0% - I don't have any attachment to this franchise.

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Lip
Chance: 2% / Want: 0%
Doesn't scream all star to me and doesn't need to be in. This game seems to be focusing on big missing characters and Daisy for newcomers, so I don't think she'll make the cut considering there are only a few unrevealed characters left.

Travis
Chance: 1% / Want: 0%
Third parties are even trickier. Other than Simon I can only see a Square Enix, Ubisoft... or maaaybe Capcom newcomer.

Nominations: Medusa x5

 

[Slyshock]

And I got some creep vibes from a few of her fans in the past. A little girl wearing a mini-skirt that is "older" cause she is magical just feels like creep bait.

Spoiler: Hidden for those who don't care

I've seen this mentality pop up before and with other female characters as well so I'd like to address it.
To your credit you do stress that you're only referring to a minority, so while this post will refer back to you it's not primarily directed at you.

First of all, there's nothing referring to Lip's age in the games.
She does use magic, but nowhere is it implied that she'd age differently. If you take issue with that character archetype, your anger is misguided here.

Taking a quick look at the filters over on Pixiv, we can gauge how much R-18 content is generated for various characters and franchises.
For comparison, we'll use Panel de Pon as a whole (Lip's tag overlaps with the body part and is thus unusable) and 3 of your Smash mains.

Spoiler: R-18 data from Pixiv

パネルでポン (panerudeponn) has 962 illustrations in total, with 64 being marked R-18.
R-18: 7.1%

ゲッコウガ (greninja) has 3802 illustrations in total, with 354 being marked R-18.
R-18: 9.3%

ウルフ・オドネル (Wolf O'Donnell) has 621 illustrations in total, with 89 being marked R-18.
R-18: 16.7%

ピーチ姫 (princess peach) has 4405 illustrations in total, with 1211 being marked R-18.
R-18: 27.5%

The percentage of R-18 Panel de Pon content is less than your Smash 4 main, substantially less than your Brawl main, and significantly less than your Melee main.

That doesn't mean you're a raging pervert, but that every fictional character is going to have R-18 content created for them regardless of anything else. For every fictional character not explicitly created for the purpose of starring in R-18 content, the fans interested in them as a character will always outnumber the fans interested in them as an object. Using the existence of a minority as a weapon against the majority isn't conductive to any conversation. It might seem like I'm blowing such a small line out of proportion, but I think it's indicative of a issue in the greater community. It's pretty obvious that the "creep bait" stigma is only applied to female characters, despite there being plenty of male characters who statistically fit the bill better.

One theory for why Panel de Pon was reskinned in the West was because Nintendo of America believed that the fairy aesthetic wouldn't appeal to a primarily male demographic. If 20 years ago the logic for keeping girls out of games was that boys wouldn't want to buy games that starred girls, and today the logic for keeping girls out of games is that boys would want to buy games that starred girls but for the wrong reasons, then when will the time be right for Lip (or any other girl) to show her face?

It's a very unfortunate catch-22 for female representation in gaming.

 

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

I missed the Layton and Skull Kid RTC darn it
Oh well time to rate Lip and Travis
LIP (Panel De Pon) - Chances 22% Puzzle League/Panel De Pon/ Tetris Attack is a series that began on the SNES. The problem with a Lip is although her franchise was brought to the west, although her aesthetic and universe was reskinned with characters from Yoshi and Pokemon. We currently have no young girls on the roster aside from Wendy so she can fill a niche, although Ashley is a more popular and relevant competitor in that regard. With the roster so small this time I don't see how Lip would be that much of a priority to Sakurai given her Japan only appearances that's held other characters back like Takamaru back. The series is already represented with Kirby's down special and the 'Lip's Stick' item so maybe there is room to give her a chance in Smash this time around, who knows.

Want 62% Lip has a cute design and puzzle games are an important genre in gaming which isn't represented much in the Super Smash Bros. games. Her moveset could be really cool with the floral vibe she possesses and the different blocks she uses. Puzzle League is a fan favorite series which can use some more love.

TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN (No More Heroes) Chances 19% Sakurai has special criteria for 3rd party characters to being which is being iconic and having a large impact on gaming. Unfortunately for Travis he falls behind in that category and according to VGChartz he lacks. When the project plan was made in 2015, the 'No More Heroes' franchise was inactive since 2010 with two games until the smaller release 'Travis Strikes Back' which for a 3rd party character makes him a weaker candidate against more popular and successful third party legends like Crash, Rayman and Simon Belmont. Although Bayonetta did go against that, her second game was co-published by Nintendo which is an advantage he doesn't have. Sakurai and Suda are friends and Suda has expressed his interest for a playable Travis which do help his chances abit and he has a game coming out for Switch soon although this game is smaller in scale and is not considered a main installment

Want-30% I've never played a No More Heroes game in my entire life but he looks like a cool character, although I don't really know what he does besides use a saber sword and recharge it so his moveset potential doesn't sound that interesting to me. A Mii costume wouldn't be bad representation for him imo, especially for a niche 3rd party ip like No More Heroes

 

[Erimir]

Ah, today it's who and literally who's day.

Just kidding, I know who Lip is. She has Lip's Stick.

Which we haven't seen in the new game. This clearly can only be explained by one thing: she's a playable fighter this time! Unless they just didn't show it in the demo, as there were a number of items that weren't shown. Or they just decided to remove her item instead of bringing it back.

But sure, maybe it's because she's playable. But she's a Japan exclusive and even a lot of Smash players probably don't know what her item is from. While she might have some dedicated fans in Japan, I haven't seen much reason to think she's highly wanted even there, while she seems to be a highly niche character here.

Lip chances: 4%
Lip want: 20%
I don't like her design and I don't feel like there's much reason to include her.

Travis Touchdown
I feel like he doesn't fit a lot and we already have Bayonetta in that vein. But I guess if his creator wants him in, he might have a chance. But he's not a big name and I don't see why they'd give him one of the few newcomer slots...

TT chances: 2%
TT want: 0%
So edgy.

Nominations: Smash Run x5

 

[Gerrothorax]

Abstaining from today
Nominations: Ken Masters x5

 

[N. Onymous]

I'm just rating Lip since I know next to nothing about the NMH series and I don't want to give Travis an unfair shake:

Lip
Chances: 20%
Not impossible, but certainly not high. Lip has plenty of support from all three major regions, including the two her game was never released in unedited, but since we already know the roster for this game will have relatively few newcomers, they'll have to make each one of them pack a serious punch (e.g. Inklings and Ridley). Not every Joe Schmo off the street is going to know who Lip is.

That said, recent developments seem to indicate that the Smash 4 DLC poll was actually a Smash Ultimate roster poll in disguise--and since Smash 4 consigned quite a few of Lip's competitors to Assist Trophy status (like Takamaru and the Sable Prince), their fans had no reason to vote for them. Lip didn't make the cut as SSB4 DLC, but Smash Ultimate is keeping many of those Assist Trophies while adding a few more (e.g. Sukapon), making her competition in this department slim. Besides that, Ultimate seems to have much less of an advertising bent than Smash 4 did...as well it shouldn't, considering how little time has passed in-between the two games and how few new games have come out in that span. With the marketing edge gone, there's no further reason to actively exclude characters from dead or Japan-only franchises.

Who knows? Maybe now is Lip's time. I can only hope the fact that she's received plenty of ballot votes from loving fans in the Americas and Europe as well as Japan (just check the supporters list in my thread, it's over 100 and growing!) will prove to Nintendo and Sora Ltd. there is worth in putting her in the game.

Want: 100%
Hasn't changed since last time. She's got so much potential for a legitimately unique and interesting moveset, she's a prime and unfairly overlooked example of a strong female character in Nintendo's lineup (it's very rare for a Japanese work focusing on female characters to lack any romance angle whatsoever--that's not something even Lip's successor Furil can claim!), and she's just an utter cutie-pie on top of that. Please make my dreams come true, Sakurai.

 

[Ura]

Lip

Chance: 25%

Want: 70%

I'm not very familiar with Panel de Pon asides from that Pokemon Puzzle League game on the N64 but Lip as a character I think would stand out from the cast and have a fun niche. Plus there's someone I know that really wants Lip so for that reason alone, i'd like her in the game lol. As for her chances, she might have a chance at being the "retro" character in the game if Sakurai were to look outside the NES era.

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 10%

Want: 50%

Indifferent to him personally. As for his chances, I don't think he has much of a chance with newcomer spaces being tight.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Lip

Chance: 25%

Slightly higher than I've previously given her (I think, I don't really remember), but I still don't think she's very likely. Too much going against her. Even with everything pointing towards the ballot, that does not really favor Lip much. Maybe if she got lucky and made it to the Top 20 Sakurai might have considered her, but I doubt even that. And I don't think this time we'll get a "retro rep" which is what Lip is favored for after Takamaru's deconfirmation.

Want: 80%

I really, really want Lip, I really do. However, she's not high priority for me. My priorities are King K. Rool and Isaac, both of whom have far more popularity behind them making them far more likely (K. Rool way more likely than Isaac obviously).

I'd absolutely love to get Lip, but she's not high priority for me. If by some miracle we get Ridley, K. Rool, Isaac, and Lip, I'll be extremely happy, but tbh, even just Ridley and K. Rool will do that fine, with Isaac adding on to make the perfect roster in my eyes. The roster just doesn't need Lip for me. She'd simply be a neat extra bonus. And no, getting her would not make up for the lack of K. Rool or Isaac (and I'd be shocked, and salty, if she somehow managed to get in instead of either one of them).


Travis Touchdown

Chance: 5%

I really can't see him happening. He's just not a notable enough third-party.

Want: 0%

I do not want a third-party like Travis Touchdown in the game. And no, its not the same thing as Lip. Travis is a third-party, Lip is first-party. There's a big difference there. Third-party characters should be really big deals. Travis just isn't.

 

[Deleted member]

Lip
Chance: 15%
Want: abstain

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 20%
Want: 35%


Noms;
Female announcer x5

Arle prediction: 12.01%
Qbby prediction: 14.03%

 

[Takasmash]

Lip
Chance: 25%
Want: 100%
I want Lip to be the next retro rep sense Takamaru is once again as a assist trophy plus smash dont have a puzzle representatives.

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%
I think No More Heroes is like a big part of Nintendo sense the Wii era. Suda51 wants Travis in smash its up to us fans to make it happen. Also what help Travis chance Suda51 is friends with Sakurai maybe it will be the same similar way how Snake got in smash wouldn't surprise. Travis will be great Suda51 did say if Travis was in smash he wont be a sword fighter he will use wrestling moves and I curious how will that work. And we dont have a wrestler in smash oh Starman nah highly doubt it.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Lip, the flowery princess of the obscure, but beloved Panel De Pon.

Chance 35%

With Takamaru reprising his role as an Assist Trophy, and Balloon Fighter's dismay in Villagers Up-B once more (which does not disconfirm 100% btw), it is hard to figure out who the next form of Retro would be. Some people speculate that there might not even be a retro this time around, but knowing Sakurai and his love for obscurity, and surprising the fanbase, I'm very confident that a character in this regard will happen. People are allowed to be entitled their opinions, and that's why I hold mine in this regard.

With the new system not having any issues with limitations, making the grand return for Ice Climbers and their mechanic, and the fact that everyone is here, there is only for us to speculate the newcomers. And, in regards to the SNES who has not often actually gotten anything like the NES representatives, it might be time to look at the SNES. Many things are hinting to this game being about fanservice. With the Ballot exploding in current time of day with the exposure of Bayonetta and Corrin, and the factual proof of Ridley, and presumably late addition Daisy, we could understand that this is the ultimate game for fans of Smash.

A lot of other things are also pointing to this might being Sakurai's love letter to the fans, or his swan song. People are speculating their heads off with old interviews and records of Sakurai and his statements, which often seems to change in each installment of the franchise. Why is all of this important for Lip? Well ...

Lip comes from a Japan exclusive title for the SNES known as "Panel De Pon", the item Lip's Stick has been present since Melee, and Lip's theme since Brawl. While the character itself has not left Japan, the series has, and left marks in the western market. Titles such as Tetris Attack, Yoshi's Cookie, Pokémon Puzzle League, and Pokémon Puzzle Challenge are amongst the titles with the familiar "Panel De Pon formula". Sakurai has shown in the past his love and dedication on his Japan-Exclusive titles, with tons of Assist Trophies, and characters in the past. Notably, Marth & Roy for Melee, and Lucas for Brawl.

For Smash 4, the Japanese exclusive characters did not make a jump to playable, but all shafted into Assist Trophies. Now, knowing Sakurai not being predictable, and how he seems to change his own statements through games, and decision making, it is not too far fetche'd to believe he could do a Marth and Roy again. Why believe that? Because of the Smash Fighter Ballot of course. This is the first time the fans from all around the world gets their chance to vote for the characters they want.

I've seen research done by individuals trying to speculate what characters might have gotten a chance for consideration, regarding their following, campaigns and fanart. When it comes to Retro representation, Lip is the clear victor. Not even Takamaru had the same size of vocal following as what Lip had (Stated by BluePikmin11 in his analyse for Lip), and while some might have thought Excitebiker being the logical choice, this did not happen until the reveal/tease of Smash 5/Ulimate. Excitebike did not have such following back in the Ballot days as Lip did. Why is this important outside of some votes? Well, it is apparent that Lip not only having followers in Japan, but also in Europe and America, which is something noticable, regarding her exclusivity. Sakurai has mentioned that he considers Panel De Pon a masterpiece, and that he wishes for people to play it, and back in Melee (where this comment came from), he was wondering if people would even know who she was. Now, with the Ballot clearly showing a cult following all around the world, it must have come to his attention at some point.

This could make Sakurai wish to work on Lip, as she would be an unique fighter, and adding something new to the already huge roster. We know that was one of the biggest focuses for Smash 4, and that not every character is going to be predictable. This leads me to believe that Lip does have a fair chance to appear in this game. Wether it is in form of Playable, or an Assist Trophy, I'm confident at some point we will have Lip appearing in the game.

Want: 100%

If you clearly read through my analyse you could get a lot of information to why I'd love the character. The game formula, and series is something I'm really enjoying, and finding it as my own masterpiece in that regard. I think she would be unique, and the retro rep I'd love the most.

Hopefully we will get to see Lip in some form or shape. This is to hoping that Panel De Pon will be localized, and utulized for further new titles in the series.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Lip:
Chance: 15%, maybe?
I mean, her series has Item Representation and that's more than poor Golden Sun got. So hey, maybe she's got a shot? I think being Japan-only hurts her here.
Want: 30%
It's not a series I'm invested in, but I like the idea of a Puzzle Game character and how that could translate into Smash. Also, yeah, there's no young girl characters in Smash, unless you count the nebulous-aged Nana of Ice Climbers or the Female Villagers? Paula and Kumatora did just get in as Final Smashes and Ashley is there as an Assist Trophy though. I think Ashley is a better idea for representing this age/gender demographic, but it's possible a lot of young girls will like Lip and want to play as her. (Also, while I completely agree that underaged girls being sexualized is a very common problem in games, Lip is completely the wrong character to level this accusation at...)

Travis Touchdown
Chance: 5%?
I mean, it's not impossible, but he's really not likely. I only give him as high as 5% because Bayonetta and Cloud made it in.

Want: 0%
Unlike Lip, Travis is actual sleaze and only manages to be the hero of his story because every other character is even sleazier/more psychotic. His Lightsaber is kinda cool, but Sleazy Hero is overall not a genre that I think needs representation in Smash. (And if it was, there are better options with more than 2 games to their name...)

Noms: Monster Hunter all in~

 

[NintenRob]

Lip
Chance 2%
Possible, but eh. Very obscure and didn't even stick around when Puzzle League came overseas
Want 10%
I'd love a puzzle league stage but that's it.


Travis
Chance 1
Want 0
Third Party I don't consider iconic OR popular enough. Even compared to Bayonetta, he's no one special

All nominations on Parabo and Satebo

Prediction
10% all round (don't even know who)

 

[Deleted member]

Lip chance: 5%
She has very little going for her other than (presumably) fan demand - she only appeared in the Japanese version of Panel de Pon, a game that was completely revamped in the localization, making her very obscure.
I have doubts about a retro newcomer in the first place, but even if there will be I don't see Lip as a major contender.

Lip want: 50%
She has at least one dedicated fan that I can relate to. I prefer Takamaru (R.I.P) but I wouldn't mind Lip because I know she will make at least one person happy.

Abstain from Travis

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[PsychoJosh]

Harold Homerun
Abstain.

Lip
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

Like I said before, this is the hour of flower power. Lip has been a well-loved, fairly popular, and consistently requested choice ever since Brawl, and while she hasn't yet gotten her chance to shine in the series yet, it's not over until Sakurai sings. The legacy of support for her has to mean something, and to be honest, I've never seen as much passion or creativity in any of the other potential Smash characters' fanbases than I have seen for Lip. Panel de Pon fans are constantly flexing their creative muscles through fan animations, music remixes, pixel art, drawings and even 3D models of the fairy characters. At some point someone at Nintendo has to have seen these things and at least been slightly touched by them if they truly are keeping tabs on their audience.

Now that stuff is all well and good, but more to the point, it's all meaningless if she can't be a good Smash fighter. In my opinion, regardless of whether fan passion is there or not, a dud character is a dud character and they simply shouldn't shoehorn in ideas that don't work. With that said, I truly believe that Lip has what it takes to be one of if not the most unique and interesting fighters on the roster. Moveset ideas abound for Lip, commonly revolving around taking Panel de Pon gameplay and converting it to a Smash-style context. Panel de Pon is one of the progenitors of match-3 puzzle games that we commonly see on our phones, so the most unique takes on Lip's moveset in my opinion commonly revolve around her playing a miniaturized game of Panel de Pon on the stage. She would be able to conjure panel blocks and build towers of them on the stage, using a swap cursor special to move them around and even raise the stack where she began constructing them. By matching 3 or more colors of panels she could produce AoE (area of effect) spells with different effects depending on the colors of the panels used. Red could set opponents on fire, blue could freeze them, yellow could electrify them, green could sprout flowers on their heads, and the rare and elusive "!" panels could simply deliver a deadly killing blow to anyone near them upon activation. While her specials could all revolve around Panel de Pon gameplay, her normals/aerials/Smash attacks could instead make reference to the lore of her games, wherein she activates powerful fairy magic to dish out pain. Things like thorny vines, sharp flower petal pinwheels, venus flytrap mouths and deadly pollen clouds could make her a threat on the battlefield. A unique trait of hers could be that any attacks that hit the enemy with her wand have a small chance of sprouting a flower on their heads or making the flower bigger with subsequent lucky strikes.

Overall, I think people are simply too pessimistic about Lip's chances and her potential as a Smash fighter. I for one reject this pessimism and maintain faith that not only could she appear but she could also be a fantastic and wonderful fighter if she made it into the game. To some, an obscure pick, to others, a dream come true. I do expect some "unexpected" or sleeper characters to appear in this Smash, and I don't believe that all the newcomers would necessarily have to be popular choices. After all, some of the most historic and iconic characters in Smash weren't at all popular choices when they were revealed (for example, the Ice Climbers, Mr. Game and watch, and Duck Hunt)

Popularity is only one factor, it is not the LONE determining factor. Characters with worse odds have gotten in the game before, so why not Lip?

Nomination: Earthworm Jim, all in.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Travis Touchdown

Chance: 10%

Apparently Sakurai and Suda51 are friends from what I've heard, so maybe we could get another Snake situation. But the big problem is how little game history Travis carries as opposed to Snake. Also apparently he charges up his beam katana with a ****. That definitely won't help his chances.

Lip

Chance: 2%

Not many people know her, being a Japan only character. Heck, Panel de Pon turned into the Yoshi-themed Tetris Attack to appeal more to the western audience. I recall some considered characters in the past being rejected due to being to obscure to the west. Besides that, she's just not that relevant and popular and the Lip stick already being an item might also be an issue.

Want: 5%

I'm not a huge guy on puzzle games, besides puyo puyo. Doesn't interest me.

Nothing really has changed here.

Arle: 11.58%
Qbby: 8.67%

All in on canon voices. BTW are we done with 10 noms now? Seems like it.

 

[VexTheHex]

I've seen this mentality pop up before and with other female characters as well so I'd like to address it.

She had a kid, so I do hope she is legal for the sake of Nintendo not dropping some hardcore stuff on a puzzle game. Lol!!!

Biggest issue is her looking childish, while being older, and the whole miniskirt thing going on. Overall she has a cute design, but she can also draw in some really bad crowds. Both of these characters for me are actually fine visually, but there's other aspects that bother me on them. You bring up when is the time for ladies to be in the game, there's plenty!!! Inkling, Peach, Daisy, Samus, Lucina, WFT, Bayonetta, etc.

Also Peach's #'s showcase innocent and cute female characters are not safe. Lip would not be safe either. My issue with Krystal was people blatantly disregarding Wolf back in the day when he was more iconic for the series in it's prime while she was during it's downfall.

Overall though, if either Travis or Lip get in... good for their fans and I may end up liking their Smash selves in the end. But at looking at predicting or wanting them, they both fall short for me.

 

[Cosmic77]

Lip

Chance: 1%
I honestly don't know how anyone here could feel better about her chances now that Takamaru's disconfirmed. If a more popular and more iconic character couldn't get in, then I wouldn't exactly chalk that up as a win for Lip.

The flower effect is also returning, and since there aren't many moves that make use of that, I'm convinced Lip's Stick will once again be an item.

Want: 0%
If we're getting a new retro rep, at least pick someone iconic. I don't have any connection with this character, and I doubt anyone else would if it weren't for Melee.

Abstain from Travis

Nominations: Incineroar x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Mr Football aka travis
chance and want 1%

lip
chance
tons of retro picks to choose if we get one and her not being that popular but has a fanbase proably not that good in the ballot
5%

want
20%
wouldn't mind to much not the biggest fan though

nominating
Incenoroar x2
poke floats x3

predticiting
? at 14%

 

[TFree Mario's best friend]

Lip
Chance 55%

Honestly the people that are giving her very low % chances are not being all that realistic.

Want 100%
Lip is my most wanted character.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Lip

Chance: 5% - Good potential for a Retro character, but I believe being a Japan-exclusive will cause her to share the same fate as Takamaru, who didn't make it in for similar reasons. I think we'd be lucky to see her as an Assist Trophy, honestly. Only real things going for her is her potential as a Sakurao curveball and if her popularity over in Japan is enough for her to be considered.

Want: 1% - I wouldn't hate Lip, but she's not a character I want. Wouldn't hate it if she was playable, but there's many other characters I'd rather see.


Travis Touchdown

Chance: 1% - Possible, but not something I see happening. Sakurai's already spread thin with the number of 3rd Party companies he's working with in Smash Ultimate already, so adding more companies to the list is something I don't see.

Want: 0% - I have no interest in adding more 3rd Parties to the roster.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5