Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Megaban]

Well then...
Chances: 100%
The ONLY reason Ice Climbers weren't in Smash 4 is because of 3ds's limitations. I'm almost completely sure (~99.5 which rounds up to 100 kek) they will come back, no reason not to.

Want: 60%
Unique character(s) coming back? Of course I want them in xd

Nominations: Lana x5 (surprising)

Prediction: Wolf -70%

 

[RosiePeaches]

Chance: 45%: 8 Player Smash might stop them and honestly, they are very irrelevant characters today. But they seem to be quite popular with Smash Bros fans.

Want: 50%: Indifferent either way

 

[Xhampi]

Ice climbers
Chance : 90 %
I don't see why not, the 3DS isn't here anymore to hold them back.

Want : 20 %
Love the gimmick but in my opinion Rosalina & Luma just do it that much better and the Ice Climbers moveset is, again in my opinion, probably the most borring of all the retro characters.

Wolf Prediction : 64 %

Nomination : Marx (Kirby series) X 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Ice Climbers
Chances: 90%
These well-loved-among-Smashers vets were only cut because of one hurdle, and to our limited knowledge, that hurdle no longer exists. Polling suggests they did very well in the ballot. They are the sole potential reps from their (otherwise obscure) franchise, and they would increase the retro factor of the game.

Want: 50%
My coin flip of a want factor mainly comes from how much it would please fans, including some of my friends, in general. Also they add a unique mechanic. If ICs had never been in Smash in the first place I would have never wanted them in the first place. They're undeveloped characters from an extremely poorly aged game that precedes the original SMB that happened to have been given a creative moveset. That IC music theme is cold solid tho.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[ssbashworld]

Ice Climbers

Chances: 65%
Without the tech limits Ice Climbers have a decent shot to return. IDK though since I do not see a particular reason for them to return other than to appease fans since we have duck hunt with others (particularly Takamoru) also wanted who can fill the NES era rep roster slot so i am not quite sure the fan demand is enough for Sakurai to warrant a return at launch for Ice Climbers.

Want: 100%
Like Snake Ice Cllimbers were a unique character who was fun to play as in my opinion and i would be happy to have them back.

Nomination: Lyn X5

 

[Morbi]

Ice Climbers

Chances: 99%
I guess if eight player Smash returns, they will still not be viable. But then again, maybe he will just disable them for that mode only as he saw the effect their outright removal had. Either way, they would not have been cut without the technical limitations and therefore it makes no sense as to why they would not return.

Want: 100%
They offered something no other character offered. I doubt they would be particularly usable without abusing grab mechanics, but they will still be fun. And in the end, that is what matters.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 99.99%. Easily the most likely character to appear in Switch. They were only cut because of limitations which is now not an issue anymore.

Want: 80%

It'll be nice to see them again.

Prediction

Wolf: 78.83%

Nomination

Lucas x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 75%
I swear we heard Sakurai was trying basically everything he could to get the Climbers in Sm4sh, but the technical limitations of the 3DS it was impossible.

75% may seem really low, but the one nagging doubt for me with the Climbers is if 8 Player Smash is back. 16 Ice Climbers with items on high, Pokeballs and Assist Trophies galore and a big hazard stage with many moving parts...I'm not entirely sure what the Switch's hardware is capable of, but I feel like the Climbers may still cause some technical issues should 8 player Smash be a thing still.

Want: 60%
I've always been a bit neutral with Nana and Popo. I don't think they're bad, but I never really got into their playstyle and I don't particularly miss them. I know a lot of people do however, which is why I'm going to slap another 10% on for the sake of others.

Prediction:
Wolf: 76.3%

Nominations:
3 X Dillon
2 X Chibi Robo

 

[Erimir]

Ice Climbers

As has been noted, the 3DS and possibly 8-player Smash were the reasons they were cut. Unless this is basically going to be a port and they intend to make the Switch capable of playing online vs. Smash 4 (which would require them to patch Smash 4, of course), those limitations are irrelevant now.

8-player Smash could still be, but it's kind of silly to let that keep the ICs out. They made it so Miis almost weren't playable in With Anyone online, but if Ice Climbers caused a problem, they couldn't ban them/limit the number of players using them in 8-player Smash? Not sure why that should be any more upsetting (I'm pretty sure people spend more time playing online than 8-player).

The Smash community really wants them. On the other hand, I think they have a non-trivial chance of not returning since I question how much appeal they have among the casual crowd. Since the Switch is selling well, Nintendo would prefer this sells over 13 million copies like Brawl, not 5 million like Smash Wii U, and that means going beyond the hardcore crowd that cares a lot about the ICs. But still, a veteran is less work than a newcomer.

Ice Climbers chance: 89%
There is some chance they decide people didn't really miss the ICs or they only have limited spots to expand the roster and they don't want to cut a veteran or there are other newcomers they prefer. But characters that were cut for relatively minor, now mostly irrelevant reasons would be the most obvious additions.

Ice Climbers want: 30%
I don't hate them, but I haven't missed them at all in Smash 4. I assume that they would be balanced to prevent wobbling (since Smash 4 had anti-chain grab modifications) which would make them less annoying inclusions. But I find Rosalina more to play as far as similar characters go. I don't find the characters compelling at all in terms of personality and their original game, but I get the desire to represent some old history (although that's also represented with G&W, Duck Hunt and ROB...) If I could have another newcomer, or add the ICs, I'd pick a new character. I'd also pick almost any other non-clone veteran over them.

Wolf prediction: 83%
This is a pretty bullish crowd, and any unique* Nintendo-owned veteran is going to get pretty strong numbers

*aside from his specials (which are still overall more different than Falco's), Wolf's move set is unique

Nominations:
Bayonetta x1
Concept: Custom moves return x1
Lucina x3

 

[a smart guy]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 95% They are very likely. It's only technical issues holding them back.
Want: 85% They aren't my main, but I know many people disappointed that they didn't make it in. I would be happy to have them back.

Prediction: Wolf 91%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[So_many_mails]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 90%

Essentially what others have said, but I can see them being excluded due to 8 player perhaps being too confusing, or because they might be too much effort to add to the current engine

Want: 60%

Sure, why not

Noms:
Professor Layton x5

 

[DGAMER]

Ice Climbers

Chance -85% (Ice Climbers are probably coming back due to them being a technical problem cut in Smash 4, and people have demanded for their return. I put the 15% in case they decide to not bring them back. (One dream/nightmare I thought is that if Smash Switch has DLC, they could have a "Nostalgia based pack" and add in all the cut vets including IC, but then I realized that Nintendo would probs not be too greedy.))

Want- 100% (Ice Climbers were staples of Smash before their cut in Smash 4. It would be a shame to cut them here as well.)

 

[dezeray112]

Ice Climbers
Chance - 80%
Want - 65%

I think they are more than the most likely candidates to return having missed out from the 3DS/Wii-U versions.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Chance: 85%
Yeah, only cut because of 3DS, yeah yeah. But still, I can easily see them missing the main roster and having to wait until DLC for their next chance... and honestly, they can most certainly miss even DLC too. They're by no means a shoo-in.

Want: 50%
I'm perfectly content with them staying out of Smash. I never had a real personal connection with them nor did they leave a glaring hole in the roster once they left. If they come back, alright... but I'd hope their chain grab shenanigans are gone if they do come back.

Wolf Prediction: 70%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[MrNantendo]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 100%

Everyone misses them in Smash and the only thing holding this duo back was the 3DS, which should no longer be an issue.

Want:100%

Just like with Snake, a whole series was lost with them. They were also pretty unique.

Nomination: Susie (Kirby) x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 99%
Nyothing can limit the ice climbers anymore nya! I have nyaboslute certainty that they will return nya!

Want: 100%
I want them nyao nya! If i could, I'd sacrifice half the worlds population to resurrect these two mew.

 

[Starcutter]

Ice Climbers:

Chance: 90%
Nothing will stop these guys from getting in unless 12 player smash is a thing or something.

Want: 100%
These guys are my mains in every game they are in except PM (Ness is too fun there) of course I want them back!

Nominations
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[PeridotGX]

Chance: 99.50%. Going to return, the only reason it's not 100% is that something may happen.

Want: 75%. They were unique and fun.

Nominations - Marx x3, Kamek x2.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ice Climbers
99% Chance
100% want

Simply put they are vets that were cut for the 3ds, hopefully they return, which is likely

Nominating No Cuts x 5

Day over, calcs and nominations list will be updated late tonight due to personal reasons

 

[DNeon]

Day over, calcs and nominations list will be updated late tonight due to personal reasons

Yo I just editted my post to include noms which I forgot about, will they make it in?

 

[Scamper52596]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 96%
I’m pretty confident in these little guys. Sakurai talked about how he tried to get them running on the previous iteration of Smash, but ultimately failed to do so. So long as nothing prevents their inclusion this time around I feel they’re a pretty solid bet. Plus, marketing their return would probably help generate some extra hype for Smash on the Switch.

Want: 90%
I personally never played them and hold no close attatcment to them, but I think they deserve to make a return and I’m sure it would make their fans very happy. The only reason I’m rating lower than 100% is because it wouldn’t necessarily break my heart if for whatever reason we don’t see them.

Prediction
Wolf: 86.4%

Nominations
Concept: No Cuts x 3
Concept: New Zelda Character x 2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ice Climers
90.69% Chance
77.65% Want

Ice Climbers have the somewhat dubious honor of being the first character seen more as likely than wanted outright. Regardless, they now are the highest rated characters in both chance and want. I honestly would be surprised if any other cut vet or newcomer tops them without a credible leak.

Speaking of cut veterans, today we shall rate Wolf. Please discuss the captain of Star Wolf in terms of chance and want. Also, feel free to predict Isaac for tomorrow.

Scamper52596 your scores were not counted due to posting far after the day ended. However, your noms shall be counted.

@Xeno VII you were barely the closest to the score (0.04!), so you shale get 5 extra noms today.

Nominations will not be updated until tomorrow, but rest assured they will be looked at.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Wolf

Chance: 77%
Want: 85%

The 2nd most likely veteran to return. But who knows.

Prediction

Isaac: 14.85%

Nominations

Lucas x5

 

[Deleted member]

Wolf:

Chances: 80%

Wolf is a wanted veteran that a lot of people were confused on when he got cut. They got even more confused when he never came back as DLC. Besides fan demand, we have a new Starfox game with Starfox Zero (for better or worse) and they did add Starfox 2 to the SNES Classic despite it having never been released before. I'd say Wolf is pretty likely to come back, but that lack of knowledge on why he never came back for Smash 3DS and Wii U does make me wonder a little bit.

Desire: 100%

The only reason I could see for not wanting Wolf is that he's a Fox Clone. Maybe so but he's a semi-clone that plays differently enough from the original to be warranted on the roster like Toon Link and Roy are. I would like a different Final Smash. And maybe a couple specials could be changed. But all in all I'd like Wolf to Return.

Nominations:

Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Geno x1
Fawful x1
Waluigi x1

 

[Ura]

Can't Let You Cut Me Sakurai!

Chance: 85%

Depending on the nature of this game, Wolf's chances can vary. Overall i'm feeling optimistic about his chances of returning.

Want: 80%

Wolf was pretty cool in Brawl so i'd like him back.

Prediction: Isaac

Chance: 18%
Want: 77%

Nomination

Andy X 5

 

[Opossum]

Wolf

Chance: 25%
I'm not nearly as confident. He almost missed the boat for Brawl (with data showing he was completed after Sonic, Brawl's final addition, proving he was low priority) and Smash 4's DLC passed him over. The series is only gonna get bigger, so Wolf will just be less and less of a priority. Honestly I think he was a one and done thing.

Want: 100%
I liked him though.


Predicting a 19% for Isaac, and a 100% chance that at least one person misspells his name.

Nominating Celica x5

 

[Deleted member]

"We're gonna have fun with this thing!"

Wolf

Chance: 50%

Easily the second most likely veteran, though he was a last minute addition to Brawl and seemed like a low priority for Smash 4. Though has his vocal fanbase clamoring for his return.

Basically, it's demand vs. priority.

Want: 90%

#FreeWolf

Prediction: Isaac - 31.2%

@Xeno VII you were barely the closest to the score (0.04!), so you shale get 5 extra noms today.

"This is a good result!"

Nomination: Shulk x10

 

[Quetzal77]

Wolf
Chance: 90%
I have a feeling he will make a grand return since, at least from what I heard, he was in Starfox Zero, and he is the best pick for Starfox representation anyway.

Want: 100%
He was my favourite of the Starfox characters to play as and he was a great addition to the underrepresented villains reps.

Prediction for Isaac: 14%

Nominations: Pyra/Mytrha (without Rex) x3, Elma x2

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Wolf
Chance: 50%
Going middle of the road here until we know more about the game. If it's brand new, I think Wolf is unlikely. If it's something like a half port, he should be likely.

Want: 100%
There are three fighters that I want for this game above all others that weren't in Smash 4. Ice Climbers is one. Wolf is another.

 

[NintenRob]

Wolf
Chances 40%
A popular veteran, but he was cut and wasn't DLC, so it could go either. Note: I don't take into account DLC
Want 90%

Nominate Skull Kid x5

Prediction Isaac 15%

 

[Ura]

Predicting a 19% for Isaac, and a 100% chance that at least one person misspells his name.

You know it's bound to happen lol.

 

[Starcutter]

Wolf

Chance: 45%
Just under half, I think he wouldn't have a chance if people didn't make a stink about him not showing up in smash 4.

Want: 80%
He's pretty cool, and he would make one of my best friends very happy.

Predictions for Eyesac: 21%

Nominations:
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Wolf:

Chance: 50%
Like I said with the Ice Climbers, there are a lot of variables we don't really know. If they can get data directly from Brawl to Smash 5, he'd be a shoe-in, but if not and they have to build him from scratch, then I can't imagine him in the starting roster.

Want: 100%
Wolf was my secondary in Brawl, I loved how he played and I really missed him when Smash 4 came around. Also the Wolfen transforms into a giant wolf robot, that'd be awesome as a Final Smash (and it'd solve the "three Landmasters" issue from Brawl).

Isaac prediction: 65%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x1
Funky Kong x4

 

[MrRoidley]

Wolf
Chance: 50%
No clue. Even with Star Fox Zero out, I'm still kinda shocked he didn't come back as DLC in SSB4

Want: 100%
Wolf was amazing in Brawl, truly a character I missed in SSB4

Nominations:
Captain Toad x1
Waluigi x1
Ridley x1
Skull Kid x1
Jack Frost x1

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Wolf

Chance: 65%

He's an easy veteran to come back. Despite his cut, I still say the odds are all in favor for him. If they can bring back Roy and Lucas ad DLC, why not him in the base game?

Want: 100%

Play time's over. He is easily the best Star Fox character.

Prediction for Isaac

Chance: 17%

Want: 73%

Nominations: Takamaru x5

 

[Lukingordex]

Wolf

Chance: 70%

Want: 80%

 

[DaUsername]

Wolf
Chance: 65%
Remember when we all thought Mewtwo would be in the base roster of Smash 4?
Fun times.
Wolf has basically the same situation, but who knows, maybe they'll be nice and bring him back.
Want: 100%
All veterans, etc. etc.

Isaac Prediction: 13.5%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Can’t let you do that, Star Fox.

Chance: 50%
Want: 75%

Wolf’s in a really interesting place right now. He was less of a clone of Fox in Brawl than Falco was, especially regarding his specials. Still he never got graced with a truly unique set of moves. He was the only character cut with no explanation, and with Lucas (another semi-clone quite different from his parent) returning as DLC, Wolf’s absence was even more conspicuous.

As such, yes there are people supporting him, but we don’t know the story. All we do know is Star Fox Zero didn’t do nearly as well as they’d hoped, and it’s too easy for people to call Wolf a clone - and we had a lot of clone complaints due to the three who ended up in the SSB4 roster. Still, you could say the same for Lucas (even more for him, since that game was not localized and the series is dead)

I’d really put his chances at a coin flip. He is requested, but is dangerously close to being too cloney. They could pull a Roy and split him out further, but his last game was delayed and eventually ended DOA.

I do miss him, but not as much as I did during Sm4sh speculation. We need more villains in the roster, and Star Fox has been poorly represented, especially since all of their reps have such similar movesets.

Prediction for Isaac: 12.5%
Nomination: New Zelda rep x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Wolf

Chances 65%: I think he is more likely than unlikely yet, I can't say he won't be DLC.

Want 60%: Another character I honestly have no strong feelings for but, I'd like his fans to be happy.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x