Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Swamp Sensei]

SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE

Chance: 20%

Yeah Konami being buttheads is a biiiiiiiig issue. That said, I don't think they'd actually say no to it. I don't even think Nintendo would say no to it. Only Sakurai might be opposed to it, but he and Kojima might not see anything wrong with using his character again, especially if it makes fans happy. Snake was a popular ballot character and they already have a moveset so I consider it entirely possible. I think he's less likely than more but... I think he's still possible.

Want: 90%

Snake was fun and introduced me to Metal Gear. I'd love for him to come back.

Ice Climbers Prediction: 93%

Nominations:
Robin x 3
Phoenix Wright x 1
Elma x 1

 

[Quetzal77]

Snake
Chance: 0%
Unless there's a surprise MG game coming to Switch, there is no reason to bring him back and I just don't see him as likely at all because if Konami were to get involved, somehow, I'm sure Bomberman would be preferred.

Want: 0%
I have no attachment to him as I haven't gotten into MG.

Ice Climbers prediction: 85%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x3, Lyn x 2

 

[Troykv]

Well...

Solid Snake:

Snake is a solid character, but his chances in Smash aren't as Solid as him.

Chances 5%

The only thing going for him now is being a veteran... but the sole reason he exists in Smash Bros is because of Kojima... and well... Konami nowadays only seems to be throwing bones to the Bomberman series fans and doing pachikos and mobages.

Want: 70%

Hey! He is a nice character, I like his design and the way he plays in Brawl.

Ice Climbers predictions: 90.1%

Nominations: Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Snake
60% Chance
To be honest Snake is the single hardest veteran to discuss due to the ambiguity of his cut. You can speculate Konami bad blood or a deal not having been made, but to be honest its harder to gauge than other cut vets. Clones, Mewtwo, Lucas, and Wolf were most likely cut due to time constraints. ICs Squirtle and Ivysaur were cut at least in some part due to technical limitiations. That leaves us with Snake as a bit of an oultier. TBH I would say Snake is the single least likely out of the veterans I consider likely to return from being cut due the nature of Konami cutting him. However, there are two reasons he may return.

Money and Fan Demand.

Simply put, Snake would sell smash. He easily would be the most hyping vet to return to smash, in a case like Mewtwo was for Smash 4. He would be a profitable character to include, especially with his history within the franchise.

Also if you say he would not return due to "not fitting with Smash", Cloud and Bayonetta should have proven that nothing needs to fit for it to appear within smash. This is a series where a little pink puff ball can destroy the king of evil by sleeping and a racecar driver can punch Mario to oblivion. Third parties like Sonic and Megaman as well as previously mentioned characters should show that just being non nintendo doesnt mean you dont fit.

100% Want

Snake is my most wanted character to appear period. I played Snake so much within Brawl and Project M, he is so fun and unique. Hearing codecs for the first time on Youtube was so mindblowing as an easter egg with so much care put into it. Unlocking Snake in SSE was so hype as he was so badass. When I saw that Snake was cut, I was so hopeful that he would have appeared as DLC. I honestly thought that he was one of the most likely DLC characters to appear. Hopefully he preformed well enough on the ballot to sneak back into Smash.

Nominating Concept: No Cuts x 5

Day Over, Requesting an extraction Colonel.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Snake
19.57% Chance
69.13% Want

Snake barely managed to sneak ahead of Ridley in terms of chance and want, although he still is quite high in want. Time will tell if other veterans and third parties would eclipse Snake in chance and want.

Speaking of other veterans, today we shall be discussing Ice Climbers in chance and want. Also predict the score for Wolf tomorrow.

TumblrFamous you won the closest prediction for Snake, you get five extra noms today.

 

[Deleted member]

Ice Climbers:

Chances: 100%

The would have been in Smash Wii U and 3DS if not for the fact that the 3DS couldn't handle them and Sakurai wanted to keep the rosters of the 3DS game and the Wii U game the same (good call if you ask me). Switch won't have that problem. Ice Climbers will be in for sure.

Desire: 100%

They're a unique and fun veteran who really have no reason to get cut from the roster. I'm totally down for them coming back.

Nominations:

Impa x1
Mipha x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1

 

[jamesster445]

Ice Climbers

Chance- 90%
Aside from the technical issues there was no reason to cut them. And unless those same technical issues arise again, there should be nothing to worry about.
Want- 50%
Was never my cup of tea personally, but they're a unique set of characters that deserve their spot.

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 100% The 3DS prevented them from making the roster in SSB4, but it is no problem for a powerful Switch.

Want: 100%
I was sad to learn that they didn't make the cut for SSB4 as they are very unique and fun to play with. I look forward to the Ice Climbing duo returning back to glory.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Yay! Extra noms!

Ice Climbers Chances: 100%
They're 100% coming back. I am not even worried about it. Nothing is holding the character back at this point; I expect Sakurai will show them off at E3 to get everyone excited about their return!

Ice Climbers Want: 100%
I loved playing Ice Climbers; not having them is so weird in Smash. I want them back badly, they were such a fun character and so unique.

As for my noms, I'm loading them up:
Lucas x10

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 95%
These two were the only cut characters whose absence has been given justification - They didn't work with the 3DS. Given that the Switch is more powerful than any 3DS model, I think they've got a very good chance of returning to make long-time fans happy. That said, what would probably stop them is if for some reason Sakurai had a secret bias against them and cut them out of spite (just kidding) that outside of Smash Bros, the Ice Climbers don't have much of a foothold for relevancy. One could say they're more associated with Smash than their own game, but maybe one day they'll get some sort of KI-Style revival. THEN you can rant at everyone when we find 12 Ice Climber characters in the next Smash.

Want: 100%
Easily one of the cuts that saddened quite a lot of people. I want to see them back so no veteran gets left behind.

Prediction for Wolf: 86%
Nominations: Lyn (Fire Emblem) X3
Isaac X2

 

[Deleted member]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 90%

Unlike Snake, we actually do know the reason they were cut. Sakurai tried his hardest to implement them in Smash 4, and had them running on the Wii U, but it was the 3DS that couldn't handle them. That should no longer be an issue with the Switch being the only version this time. Though there's still the question of whether or not 8-Player Smash will return and whether or not 16 different Ice Climbers would be too much for the Switch's hardware.

I feel they're in the best position out of all the cut veterans, though.

Want: 60%

Not my most wanted cut veteran, but I'd be happy for their fans.

Prediction: Wolf - 89.6%

I expect mostly optimism for him as well.

Nomination: "The future is ours to decide!" (Shulk) x5

 

[slambros]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 100%
If the reason they were cut was anything other than technical difficulties, they wouldn't have gone through the effort of "getting it to run just fine on the Wii U version".

Want: 100%
These guys need to be in the game.

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Ice Climbers

Chance - 99.5% - While I don't like to think that any cut veteran is a certainty, the only known reason they were cut was that they couldn't work for the 3DS. Unless they don't attempt in the first place, I see them coming back.

Want - 100% - Can't see why I wouldn't want them in.


Prediction

Wolf O'Donnel - 73.49% - Cautious optimism is the word here.


Nominations
Anna X5

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 100%

Want: 100%

Not much to say. I imagine the vast majority of posts will be a perfect 10p both ways.

Wolf prediction: 82%

Nominate: Doom Slayer x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 90% - Sakurai specifically said that it was the 3ds's hardware limitations that led to them being cut. They supposedly worked fine on the Wii-U and by extension should work fine on the Switch.
Want: 100% - Please come home soon.

Wolf prediction: 80%

Nominations: New Story Mode x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Ice Climbers:

Chance: 90%

Want: 5%
I have many bad memories with their chain grab, luckily with the new mechanics, I don't think that'll be a problem. Still, I don't care for the character in general.

Wolf Prediction: 65%

Nominations: Scizor x5

 

[Deleted member]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 100%

It would be a minor miracle if they got skipped over. The Switch can handle them so there's no reason they wouldn't make the cut.

Want: 25%

I never was much of a fan of them myself. They'd also probably be able to do some kind of chaingrab with footstooling, but they're still really unique characters.

Nominations: Lyn x3, Dillon x2

Wolf Prediction: 73.7%

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Time for "Is Klatrerne", as translated in Norwegian;

ICE CLIMBERS;

Chance: 99%

Ice Climbers are Smash Legacy characters who are staples, and were only left out because of hardware limitation, which is most likely not the case this time around. Plus no matter if it would be a port or not, it's still going on Switch, which does not go simultanely with another handheld... Therefore, no problem. Most likely it's a new game. and then it's quite likely to see the classic duo come back. They are to this date still the only duo gameplay based character.

Want: 100%

Smash is just not the same without Ice Climbers, and I really liked messing up for my friends during Melee with these rascals. Brawl gave them a stage I actually liked compared to that pile of monkey horse *beep* that was in Melee. As said, they are iconic to me, my first game was Melee, and since then I always enjoyed their presence in the Smash Scene. It was sad to see them absent from the 4th installment, so I'm patiently looking forward to their return.

Nomination;

2 x Lip.
1 x Balloon Fighter.
2 x Doshin the Giant.

 

[Mogu]

Ice Climbers:

Chance: 100%
It was only the 3DS that held them back and that's not an issue anymore. They're totally coming back.

Want: 95%
I don't use them too much but I want them back for when I feel like playing as them and to make others happy. Also when the only playable character for a series is removed for one reason or another?....That's saddening.


Wolf: 80%

 

[Ghirahilda]

99.9% of chance
My want is 100%

Wolf Prediction: 73.7%

Nomitanions: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[AnonymousMoon]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 100%

You can bet your frosty butt they’ll be back!
Butts aside, their absence was a bit of a strange one. They had appeared in both Melee and Brawl up to that point so to see them suddenly disappear was a bit unnerving. What was even more bizarre is that Sakurai went out of his way to explain their absence, citing that he altered the specifics of the game itself to try and work them in on the 3DS version but couldn’t do so. While they worked on the Wii U (whether before or after 8-player was a thing, I don’t know), Sakurai nonetheless decided to remove them for equality between the versions.

So they were fully intended for the game, put into the game, and time was actually spent trying to retool the game so they could work. That dedication doesn’t exactly scream “low-priority”

So their absence was more along the lines of a freak occurrence rather than general low priority.

Want: 100%

 

[Spikeez]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 100%

It goes without saying that the 3DS was the sole reason of their removal. 8-Player Smash could prove to be quite the hoop to jump over, but the Switch should be strong enough to manage 16 Ice Climbers on-screen.

Want: 100%

I actually really like playing as the Climbers, there's no one that plays quite like them, not even Rosalina.

Wolf prediction: 75%

Nomination(s):

Decidueye - x2

Dr.Eggman - x3

 

[AnonymousMoon]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 100%

You can bet your frosty butt they’ll be back!
Butts aside, their absence was a bit of a strange one. They had appeared in both Melee and Brawl up to that point so to see them suddenly disappear was a bit unnerving. What was even more bizarre is that Sakurai went out of his way to explain their absence, citing that he altered the specifics of the game itself to try and work them in on the 3DS version but couldn’t do so. While they worked on the Wii U (whether before or after 8-player was a thing, I don’t know), Sakurai nonetheless decided to remove them for equality between the versions.

So they were fully intended for the game, put into the game, and time was actually spent trying to retool the game so they could work. That dedication doesn’t exactly scream “low-priority”

So their absence was more along the lines of a freak occurrence rather than general low priority.

Want: 100%

 

[Fenriraga]

I'm in the mood for eggplant. BRB, climbing a blocky mountain.

Chance: 90%
They were going to be in 4. 3DS held them back. 3DS is no longer a factor. People love them. Sakurai knows people love them. Do the math.

Want: 70%
Again, I don't hold personal attachment to them, but I just miss them being there.

Nominations: Lyn x3, Geno x2

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Ice Climbers:

Chance 99%
Want 70%

I don’t see why they would be excluded again, they only missed out last time because of the 3ds.

Waluigi x5

 

[Pureownege75]

Well it's still Sunday where I am so I'm gonna talk about both

Snake

Chance: 5%
Just don't see it. The whole reason he got in was because of the Kojima-Sakurai friendship. I feel that even if the opportunity were to arise, Sakurai would turn down the idea of using Snake after how Konami treated Kojima.

Want: 60%
Want him mostly because for his fans. Haven't played any of his games, but he was fun. Not really clamoring for his return, but I would welcome him back with open arms

Ice Climbers

Chance: 85%
What do I need to say that hasn't already been said? Sakurai said he had them working on the Wii U version, but they were impossible on 3DS. So clearly No 3DS == Ice Climbers Right? I mostly concur with this, but idk if we know the full story. While Sakurai did say he had them working on Wii U, I wouldn't be surprised if that was before 8-player smash was a feature which had been added. I kinda doubt the Wii U could handle 16 Ice Climbers on Screen, and if 8-player smash returns, idk if the Switch could handle it either. This is pure speculation on my end, and I do think they are highly likely, but I don't want to give them a 100% chance.

Want: 75%
I definitely miss them, but maybe not as much as I thought I would when we first learned they got cut. I've kinda coped with the loss of them. Don't get me wrong I still would love to see them return, but if they don't make it in again I don't think I'd be overly upset.

Nominations:

Labo Related Character x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Ice Climbers
Chance: 95%
Unlike other cuts, Sakurai actually mentioned the climbers and why they didn't return. Since what held them back isn't anymore, there's very little reason for them not to reach the top this time.

Want: 100%
There are three fighters that I want for this game above all others that weren't in Smash 4. Ice Climbers is one.

 

[CodeBlue_]

Here is Snake's data distribution along with K.Rool's as promised~
------
Day 1: King K. Rool
Total Entrants: 74 (1 abstained from "Chances")
Chances
Mean: 49.26%
Standard Deviation: 20.33%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from the average): <9% or >99%

My Thoughts: People still have some faith in the croc, but it's fairly clear he isn't a guaranteed pick. About 12% put him at 20% odds or less and around half put him between 30 and 60%. No one put him at below 5%, reflecting people's faith in Sakurai in actually having this character realized (compared to yesterday's purple dragon).

Want
Mean: 72.98%
Standard Deviation: 29.10%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from the average): <14%

My thoughts: K. Rool is unsurprisingly very popular, with over 35% of voters putting him between 90 and 100% want and only 13% putting him below 30%. His popularity eclipses Ridley by about 5% with a much lower variability, giving much stronger evidence for being more universally appearing within RTC. Granted, there were about five less entrants (which can make all the difference in these statistics), but nonetheless, King K. Rool remains as a popular choice.
------
Day 3: Solid Snake
Total Entrants: 83 (2 abstained from "Chances")
Chances
Mean: 19.57%
Standard Deviation: 18.19%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from the average): >56%

My thoughts: Snake? Can you read me? Snake! SNAKE!!! (I most likely butchered this) Konami's pile of steaming manure of a company has brought all of us to doubt Snake's return. A whopping 45% of RTC voted for Snake at less than 10% chances, with only 11% voting him at 50% chances of higher. Shout-outs to the one person who put him at 90% chance, we can all learn from your determination! Surpisingly enough Snake has a higher voted chance than Ridley. I guess Sakurai's word transcends issues with a parent company from a third party franchise.

Want
Mean: 68.89%
Standard Deviation: 31.12%
Outliers (+/- 2 SD from the average): <6.5%

My thoughts: There is a little less fanfare for Snake than K. Rool with about 36% putting him at above 80% want and a little less putting him between 50-80%. The exact number of people put Snake between 0 and 10% want as Ridley (eight), so there is a minute indifference towards our box loving friend. Overall, Snake being around 70% is not surprising for him being a popular third party veteran but still a third party character. In the midst of many Nintendo loyal fans who might not be star struck by Snake, he has done a lot to warm our hearts during him time in Brawl. Hopefully, we see him again!


See you guys tomorrow (maybe), this was a long one to make~

 

[SSBCandidates]

Ice Climbers

Want 50%
I fam really neutral on them. But they are quite unique for working as a team.

Chance 70%
They could get in as there is no 3DS version to hold them back.

Nominations
Sophitia Alexandra x4
Doom Guy X1.

Wolf prediction
82.34%

 

[Pepperoni_Lives]

Sorry if I missed some days but here we go.
ICE CLIMBERS:
Chance: 99%- The only thing holding the Ice Climbers back from being in Smash 4 was the 3DS not being able to handle them. The development team does not have to worry about the 3DS now, so I think that they are pretty likely to come back.
Want: 100%- I love the the Ice Climbers and have always thought they were really fun to play.
Wolf Prediction: 85%
Nominations: Waluigi x5

 

[NintenRob]

Ice Climbers
Chance 75%
Want 100%

While I don't think they're guaranteed like everyone else, even if it was just for technical reason, they were still cut. But I do consider them more likely than not.

Prediction
Wolf 69%

Nominate Skull Kid x5

 

[Erureido]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 90%

The main reason they were cut from Smash 4 was due to technical difficulties when trying to make them work on the 3DS. Now that the next Smash will be released on a much stronger console, their chances of coming back are pretty high. Not exactly "shoo-in" territory, but I think they're pretty likely.

Want: 70%

I'm pretty supportive of them for the most part.

------

Predictions

Wolf (Star Fox): 73.84%

This one's going to come down based on how people will interpret Star Fox Zero affects his chances.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[DNeon]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 75%

I think technical limitations may be just a small part of last time, it's entirely possible that they're just a pain to work with when having to program the AI. At the very least I don't think they're nearly as close to a lock for the base game as people are making it out to be, though are much more likely to eventually get in via DLC. I just think that they might be sitting on the bench longer than people are willing to think about.

Want: 35%

Not a fan of how they've played before, always hated playing against them and honestly don't like fighters that you're playing against/with the AI.

Wolf Prediction: 81.31%

EDIT: Nominations:

Andy x 1
Travis Touchdown x 2
Concept: Advance Wars CO x 2

 

[Xenigma]

As a point of self-curiosity I've created a Google Doc compiling my ratings for this iteration of the game, something I wish I'd done with the Sm4sh version so I could see how well I did compared to the final product. On the off chance other people find it interesting there's a link to it in my signature, which also includes a brief overview of how I'll be approaching this game. Y'know, because overthinking a forum game is clearly the best way to spend my time.

Ice Climbers
Chance - 90%
There's two things keeping me from putting them at 100%. One: the ICs have been cut before, so I can't safely assume it will never happen again. Two: while being problematic on the 3DS version is famously cited as their reason for being cut, I wouldn't surprised to find they are also an issue in 8-Player Smash, which may well return regardless of whether Smash for Switch is a port or a brand new game. I do believe they will almost certainly make the cut as unique multi-game veterans, but there's just enough doubt that I feel compelled give this relatively conservative rating on what by right should be a guaranteed inclusion.
Want - 100%
Three days in a row of 100%s! Ice Climbers were always such goofy fun in Melee and Brawl, and while I'd never really "mained" them, they were always a favorite in my casual games, far removed from the competitive land of desyncing and wobbling and such. Here's hoping we'll be seeing them soon!

Nominations - Lucina 5x

Wolf Predictions (Again) - 65% Chance, 75% Want
He did better than this the three times he came up in Sm4sh RTC, but I have to believe he takes a hit after totally missing out that game.

 

[PreedReve]

Ice Climbers

Chances: 99%
They're a fan favorite and now that the 3DS isn't in the equation, there's no reason not to have them back.

Want: 100%

Noms
2x Style Savvy
1x Chibi-Robo
2x Mallo from Pushmo series

Wolf Predictions
Chances: 56%
Want: 62%

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 90%

The Switch is a completely different beast from the the 3DS and the Ice Climbers were only held back by limits. No excuse, they are easily the most desired veterans to return.

Want: 90%

I want them back, they were unique and fun to play as. Things weren't the same without them.

Prediction for Wolf

Chance: 82%

Want: 85%

Nominations: Takamaru x5

 

[Ura]

The ****** Twins

Chance: 95%

It's pretty darn likely they're coming back since it was just the 3DS that held them back before.

Want: 75%

Yeah sure IC's coming back would be cool even though i'm not super ecstatic about them.

Prediction

Wolf

Chance: 78%

Want: 92%

Nomination

Andy X 5

 

[Troykv]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 90%

Not exactly high priority, but the reason they don't appear in Smash Wii U/3DS is well know, so, they have very good chances for the next game.

Want: 50%

I'm okay whatever happer.

Predicition Wolf: 84.6%

Nominations: Micaiah x5

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Day four, here we go...

Ice Climbers

Chance: 100%

Already functioning in Smash U before they were cut. No such issues here. Plus, they can be marketed as a returning fan favorite. It's win-win!

Want: 100%

My Melee main. of course I want them back!

Prediction: Wolf

Chance: 75.8%

I think people will be optimistic, but there will be a few who aren't so sure (like me.) Why was he even cut in the first place? The mystery remains...

Want: 92.8%

Everybody loves Wolf, lol. A few might muddy the numbers with "too many Fox clones," though.

Nominations:

Marx: 2x
Qbby: 2x

And to shake things up...

Poochy (Yoshi series): 1x

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances: 90%

We already know they were just cut due to technical difficulties. We still don't know if the Switch will be able to accomadate them for 8-player or if 8-player will return and I do wonder if they have enough popularity to return. Still, given Sakurai obviously likes them, odds are high.

Want: 35%

Meh? I like the dual character concept, but the Ice Climbers did not really do much with them, and they have always presented a gameplay problem in each Smash Brothers game they've been in. Personally, I'd rather have other retro reps or another dual character, but they aren't bad and I do like their cute appearance, they just don't mean a lot to me.

Nominations

Masked Man (Mother 3) x2
Travis Touchdown x1
2B x1
KOS-MOS x1

Prediction: Wolf

69.9%