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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Nothing really changed for either of these 2 so I'll just copy and paste what I had last time here again


Reimu first
Reimu
Chance 2 - Indie rep, and this one is extremely unknown everywhere outside of Japan. Most of her case comes from fake leaks and the likes from her own fanbase(props to them for trying so hard but it's a little bit cringy and annoying now), and unlike Ryu Hayabusa where there's other stuff supporting it I don't see why Nintendo would pick her. While I don't think history with Nintendo matters as much as it once did I do think that it's telling that a lot of indies who make more sense got passed up already, and I don't think that Nintendo is going to pass on them again to include a character nobody knows outside of Japan and has 1 game on the system(not sure if it's been released yet). Sakurai mentioned that Takamaru would be in if he was known outside of Japan and we havent' gotten a character like that since Lucas in brawl. Overall, don't see this happening.

Want 0 - Looked into her more since the last time and still don't really want her. The level of unknown she has outside of Japan is a really big turn off to me since I have no connection to the character and a lot more interesting and better indie picks already got Mii Costume'd or AT'd. Feels like she should be a special Mii Costume at best really.

And It looks like I'll have to redo Quote's to get full noms so that's what I'll do

Chance 5 - There's a few reasons I could see this. Major one being the fact that he's considered the godfather of indie reps. I don't think this will happen due to the fact that, well, he's still an indie rep. He's on multiple Nintendo consoles, which I think matters a lot for indie characters, so that is a big plus over some others. With the effort they've been going through to not put indies as playable I don't think this will happen. And for the record, no I don't think Niccalis being ****ty has any effect on Quote getting in. I doubt Nintendo cares about that at all when making selections for Smash.

Want 20 - Wouldnt mind it but still competition for The Knight. It would be hard to say he doesn't deserve it but I wouldn't be super hyped or anything because of that reason. In a vaccum I wouldn't particularly mind it but with him being strong competition for one of my most wanted it's hard to root for him to make it in.

Predictions:
Ryu - 41%
Adol - 35%

Noms:
Far Cry Rep x13
Bioshock Protagonist x12
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
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Messages
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Hell
Fixed Schedule part 3: Indie Crusaders

Chances: 8%

Quote, him and Cave Story. What changed since last time? Not much. First of all, I almost did the xact same joke as last time for the title of this section except the last time I quoted someone who said to not quote him on it, I hope that you're both gratefull that I toned it down and exasperated that I almost did the exact same joke. Anyway, Cave Story is the first indie to break trough the international video game scene (emphasis on the international part, as the first Reitaisai hapened in 2004, the same year that Cave Story released), and is overall very important to the first indie boom that was also eventualy part of why Minecraft worked so well, and well, in said first indie boom, Cave Story got ported to many Nintendo systems, giving it a lot of history with Nintendo. And not only was it ported to the Wii, it was also ported to the 3ds, Wii U, and more recently Switch with Cave Story +, making so that the game and Quote both stay relevant up to today, which coupled with things such as Quote and Curly both getting guest apearances in Blade Runners, Cae Story 3d being a thing, and how the internet just loves that game and often give it even more popularity due to things like orchestral covers by big ochestras for video games, this should mean that Quote have a really good chance.

And it would be this way, if it wasn't for who owns Studio Pixel, the one who made Cave Story, being none other than Nicalis, who is a really, really bad company for it's employees, more than usual, and the CEO also publicly said "f Nintendo" if I'm not mistaken, and he's also notoriously bad to work with, which could very well mean that NIntendo and Sakurai wouldn't even have bothered with him. They dealt with the devil, Koichi Sugiyama, but at least he can be tamed with enough money, and we know that Nintendo payed him a lot for DQ (not just related to Smash, also with how DQXIS Switch has the orchestral version of the midi version for not DQXI's ost but also for DQVIII's ost). I really think that Nintendo and Sakurai just don't want to work wih that guy, even if I don't see it as a death sentence for Quote in Smash, just that it makes him way more unlikely than he should be.

Want: 65%

I have still yet to play Cave Story, but it seems like a perfectly fine game despite who owns it. Quote could also have a fun moveset, like he does in Blade Runner. And that game also shows the potential his moveset has, which is nice for him. A stage and music from Cave Story could be nice to have from what I know of the game too. And I will certainly apreciate him more if I end up playing Cave Story, even if I don't think that it can top Hollow Knight or Luna Nights for me as a Metroidvania.


The wonderfull shrine maiden of paradise, crimson slasher, miko in red and white, protector of Gensokyo, Reimu Hakurei, the eternal shrine maiden.

Chances: 22%

I'm pretty sure that mostly everything has already been said about Reimu's (or any other Touhou character) chance to get in Smash, but hey, for the hell of it, let's do this onca again. First of all, Touhou is the oldest still ongoing indie out there, with HRtP being finalised in 1995 (it's also the date of when ZUN considers that Touhou started, as the 25th anniversary was done this year), and started being sold in 1997 at Comiket. It got 5 games on the Pc-98 engine, but the series really got popular starting from 2002 with the release of Embodiment of the Scarlet Devil, the 6th, most popular, and most known game of the series, which was a soft reboot of the series, and who also saw the debut of some of the most popular and memed character of the series, most notably Cirno, Sakuya, Remilia, and Flandre. After that, the series continued, with notable events beig how it got the Reitaisai, a fan convention made stricly for Touhou because it was getting too much at the Comiket, and even after that it's still one of the most popular doujin series there, and it was held twice every year most years ever since (because you know, covid-19), and also the release of many mainline Touhou games, totalising at 17 with the recent release of WBaWC, and if I'm not mistaken, 10 or 11 oficial spin-offs, making a lot of Touhou games as a whole if you don't count the ilteraly hundreds of fan games that there are. Said fan games go on consoles far more than the ofiicial games do, with the only official Touhou games going on consoles being Urban Legend in Limbo (14.5), and eventualy Antimony of Common Flowers (15.5) will do that too. The series doesn't really have Nintendo history, but not only did Reimu appear alongside Kirby in Taiko Drum Drum on the 3ds and now Switch, but also, something hapened back in 2016 that, well, nobody expected
Yup, Nintendo went at Reitaisai and sold remixes there. This would also mean that Nintendo would have no problems about Touhou being in one of their biggest games, despite how chill ZUN is with copyright, unlike Nintendo themselves (also Capcom did make the Megaman X SF fangame official before Megaman and Ryu got in Sm4sh, so it wasn't that it was a problem to begin with).

Now, however, we don't know if Nintendo would pick Reimu or a Touhou character as dlc because they don't really know if the fanbase would apreciate it before the dlc was chosen (since now Reimu is pretty popular with the Smash fanbase, thanks to Twitter accounts like ReimuForSmash). However, I also found this topic on gamefaqs about a 5chan post that supposedly leaked the results of the Sm4sh ballot, or at least part of it, and if it is to be believed, then Touhou, or as it is called there, Tohou, did surprinsigly well on the ballot.

Also there was that time when ZUN's friend who helps him with legal stuff said that Nintendo would support Touhou if they ported an official game on the Switch like days before it was anounced that AoCF would eventualy get ported to the Switch. So that's neat.

Oh and also ZUN said that he would like it if Reimu was in Smash so that's also neat.

Oh and also the doujin leak, even if I don't believe it anymore, it could be noted as we know that the negociations for Steve started 5 years ago, but I don't believe in it anymore.

Talking about leaks, there's also that recent 5chan leak that was made after Steve's reveal about how Sephiroth, Crash, Reimu, and KOS-MOS would all join Smash, which is also neat.

Andfinaly, I'd just like to say that many things that Touhou acomplished would be seen as impossible if Touhou did not do them. The entirity thrives on defying all logic and reasons, may it be in universe, or in real life. So as impossible Reimu getting in Smash seems, something more impossible related to Touhou not only most likely already hapened, but also there's how she may come back in one of the Touhou mangas that are currently going, and well, if she comes back, let's just say that any impossibillity will seem likely for Touhou.

And finaly, Reimu isn't near as popular in Europe and the USA as she is in Japan and the rest of Asia, but we already got characters who were far more popular in a region than in another one. And besides, we already have the 2 big hitters of the pass with Steve and Sephiroth being both part of the pass, who are easily 2 of the biggest characters who weren't in Smash.

Well, that was extremly long. But now, I'm moving on to

Want: 100%

Reimu is my number 1 most wanted (well technically she's number 2 behind Sakuya, but I very well know that there's no way for Sakuya to get in before Reimu), as she is the protagonist and one of my favorite character from my favorite series in gaming and just fiction as a whole. This may sound very cheesy, and trust me, it is cheesy, but Touhou is special for me, and so I would love it so much if Reimu managed to get into one of my favorite fighting game and crossover, especialy since she has a chance to get in. And well, beyond that, Reimu could have an amazingly fun moveset, as while she doesn't have that much moveset potential outside of projectiles from the mainline bullet hell games, she could easily have a moveset that mainly takes from the fighters, more specificaly Hisoutensoku and AoCF, as she has 2 very good and different (even if multiples moves are similar between both movesets) movesets in said fighting games, and then there's Gouyokou Ibun, a platformer/boss rush style of game which is also the next spin-off that's coming in 2021 (even if it would most likely not be used for Reimu's moveset as it's too recent). Not only that, but her stage could also be cool, especialy if they go hard with the cameos, like they did for KoF Stadium, and most importantly, the music. Touhou music in Smash would be so amazing, and if they get doujin circles to make remixes to Smash? That would also be so amazing, especialy if Akatsuki Records, A-One, and Demetori all do some remixes for Smash. So yeah, Reimu is my most wanted. Thank you for reading my pep talk.

Nominations

Madeline Mii x 20

Predictions

Ryu Hayabusa: 57.8%

Adol Christin: 29.3%
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,013
Abstain on both. I don't have enough stamina to go through this.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo Platform x 10 (I believe two abstains equal 10. Correct if I am wrong)
 

NintenZ

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Oh hey it’s two characters I have some sort of vague attachment to

Anyways let’s begin

Quote

Chance- 5%

Whilist Cave Story is an influential game, a pioneer on the indie scene, and very recognizable to both casual and hardcore audiences alike, there’s a big problem that’s getting in the way of it. Yeah that’s right Nicalis, the company who basically tricked Pixel into giving them the IP rights. I really do not think Nintendo would want to do business with them after everything that’s come out. While I think otherwise it’s a choice they’d go with, this is definitely a special situation here. Unless the rights go back to Pixel I don’t see them going for it (Especially considering the fact Nicalis sent them a model back in Smash 4 and they ended up not using that at all lmfao).

Want- 80%

I love Cave Story, it was a game I used to play a lot with it being a freeware game and I fell in love with the world and characters. It’s a fantastic game that’s had a great job holding up even today, evident from how many games take inspiration from it. That being said I’m hesitant also because of Nicalis. I think they’re a really ****ty company and Tyrone Rodriguez needs to resign. The way they treat their workers is also really **** too and the way they swindle their developers is also slimy. But that’s really the only reason the score is lower, otherwise I’d be all for Quote.

Reimu Hakurei

Chance- 5%

I’ll be honest I think she gets a bit too much credit. Touhou is another influential series on indie games and bullet hell shooters, and the series is also massive in Japan no doubt. ZUN would also be easy to negotiate with so that’s a non-issue. At the same time Nintendo themselves haven’t really shown any interest in the franchise whatsoever, they haven’t actively promoted the series at any point and they don’t really have much incentive to do that with all of the games being released on Switch being licensed spin-offs. To me I just don’t think Nintendo has much incentive to go with it, I could see Reimu and Marisa getting Mii Outfits but I don’t really see a character happening.

Want- 90%

That being said... I would not be opposed to the idea at all. I have very fond memories of Tohou, I played a lot of Embodiment of the Scarlet Devil in middle school and I’m very well acquainted with the series memes (McDonald’s and Cirno anyone?). I think Reimu would bring a lot of content with her and the music would be fantastic (UN Owen Was Her needs to be a song). I admit earlier this year I was a bit opposed to the idea because of some of her fans but tbh I’ve kinda grown numb to that stuff and I try not to let it affect my enjoyment of these things. But yeah Touhou in Smash would be pretty cool.

So all-in-all, two characters I have attachment to in some way, both of which have merits, but don’t see happening because of various hurdles they have, I guess them also being indie franchises also makes me see them as less likely for Nintendo to go with them as they’d likely wanna go with ones from bigger partners to build relationships with them.

That’s all for now.

Nominations:
Any Xenoblade character (20x)
Kaede Akamatsu (20x)
 
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Mushroomguy12

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Abstain on Quote

Reimu

Chance: 35%

Touhou is a fairly large series that has lots of popularity in Japan and meme culture. It has also had plenty of Nintendo appearances, contrary to what some believe, and has even crossed over with Nintendo IP before like Kirby.

Want: 100%

Touhou is an excellent series that would be great to see in Smash. Reimu would be a unique character that would represent the bullet hell genre and bring an interesting moveset with her to the game. Overall, she would be a fantastic choice.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
Oh golly gee I wonder who's being rated next-

Reimu Hakurei (Touhou)
OH BOY

Abstaining on Quote.


Reimu "Put the Fortune Teller in the Cellar" Hakurei

Chance: 30%
I think it could happen. A few people have made the misconception that ZUN refuses to release his works worldwide and, while that may have been true for the longest time, in recent times plenty of official Touhou games have been released to Steam and thus made legally available worldwide. He just doesn't bother doing official translations because, in his own words, he figured (correctly, I might add) that the fans would already basically have the translation work done for him. She's not a lock, by any means, but I don't think her chances are all that bad either. It certainly helps that she's crossed over with Nintendo properties before, most notably in the 3DS Taiko no Tatsujin RPG, which recently got released to Western Audiences as Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack. I also don't think locale-based popularity is really a factor any more at this point, especially when you consider that multiple of the base and DLC roster characters are only popular in certain regions of the world (and some only have cult followings coughnessandlucascough), to the point where I think a few certain people are kind of underselling her chances based on that alone. It also doesn't hurt that 'Indie' doesn't necessarily mean low chances, as a certain blocky boi (:ultsteve:) can attest to (Even though Steve isn't exactly indie any more), which gets rid of yet another counter-argument against Reimu.

It helps, but also simultaneously hurts, that it could be literally anybody, even the ones who people just straight-up don't expect, if Challenger Pack 8 is any indication. :ultsephiroth:, I'm looking at you.

With that being said, Touhou's relatively slow spread to the west (It's in that same cult following status that the Mother series has) is probably the biggest obstacle it has right now. Giving it some time might see Reimu's chances rise in the future, but for now, 30% is as far as I'll go.

Want: I think you get the deal by now. (100%)
I've already gushed like... what, three times on how Reimu's my most wanted? My feelings haven't changed since then and I don't feel like repeating myself. To tl;dr it, great music, MASSIVE moveset potential, a long, rich history and of course I like the series.


Noms: Agumon x5
 
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BernkastelWitch

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 20, 2019
Messages
530
I will do both here:

Quote:

Chances: 10%

Cave Story is very influential of a Indie game and is something that is quite well known among the casual audiences. In many ways, it makes sense for Quote to get into Smash since he has everything that can fit well here. The only problem and IMO the biggest obstacle is basically how Nicallis is as a company. They do not have a good reputation and rightfully so due to them taking the IP away from Pixel and IIRC, they may have badmouthed Nintendo a few times too. They would probably be very hard to work with and despite Cave Story and Quote both being well received, it'd cause some controversy if Nicallis got a rep in.

Want: 45%

I am admittedly very mixed here. I adore Cave Story and in normal circumstances I would be drooling over the possibility of a character I like to be in Smash. Given Nicallis' Shady history, it makes things a bit more complicated, especially since I feel like it's Pixel who deserves credit for Cave Story and not Nicallis who basically took the rights here. I am a bit on the fence here morally.


Reimu:

Chances: 35%

Despite what people say, Touhou is one of the more influential Indie series around here and is actually the oldest around. It may not have worldwide recognition but dear god, it's hard to deny how huge it is in Japan. In fact, it even influenced some Western developers if you take Toby Fox into consideration since without it, he wouldn't have gotten into making game music and Undertale would be a lot different. ZUN is also a lot more lax than Nicallis and a lot more respected and literally all it'd take for Reimu to get into Smash is Sakurai giving him a beer and no, this isn't even an exaggeration either. Touhou IMO deserves its place into Smash but the biggest question is if Nintendo is willing to allow to go for a more regional character especially since despite a lot of stuff Touhou has in its favor, it still being a cult series in the West may be detrimental. It's not as bad as how people are making it out but it ultimately depends on what Nintendo and Sakurai wants: Do they want to more "Safe"-ish options and go for worldwide popularity or do they bank it on some more Cult characters with Regional popularity?


Want: 100%

Touhou means so much to me as a person so of course I would adore Reimu into Smash. I met so many good people from this series including my SO and the fact that a series of girls and Japanese Mythology with hundreds of bullets connected me to so many people says a whole lot here. I will always advocate for Reimu in Smash even if people think I am crazy, personally speaking.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Today's noms update wasn't nearly as crazy as I expected. Partly because all of the newcomers probably came the day before, and partly because unfortunately many of you didn't get all of the nominations you wanted.

Since there's lots of new faces, there might be some confusion about how nominations work. Please don't hesitate to ask! I'll gladly explain if needed.

[Rerate] Monokuma x260
Qbby x250
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x235
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x205
[Rerate] Neku x199
Crazy Dave x190
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x187

200 - 151

Concept: Among Us character x185
Worms x180
Marina Liteyears x165
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x160
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x160

150 - 101

John Marston x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Henry Stickmin x125
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x122
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Stage: Bowser's Castle x106

100 - 51

Concept: Far Cry rep x100
Riptor x95
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Mii Costume: Madeline x90
Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x80

Giygas x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Tetra x75
Echo (Bowser) x70
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x70
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x65
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x65

Junpei (Zero Escape) x63

Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55
Zagreus x55
Mike Haggar x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Excitebiker x40
Estelle Bright x40
Senator Armstrong x30
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x30
Agent 47 x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
Stage: Tetris x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x19
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x15
Kaede Akamatsu x15

Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Rallen (Spectrobes) x5
Infernape x5
Firebrand x1

Beat skates past League of Legends rep and Neku, and claims fourth place as his own. Crazy Dave also passes LoL rep and is now in sixth place.

Velvet Crowe and Marina Liteyears fight past 150 noms.

Peppino climbs past 100 noms.

Zagreus and Mike Haggar have over 50 noms each.

A BioShock protagonist, Estelle Bright, and Agent 47 escape the under 25 club.

The latest addition to the noms list is Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep, with 10 noms.
 
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NintenZ

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NintenZ NintenZ NintenZ NintenZ The past day you gave the Xenoblade concept and Kaede 20 noms each. However the maximum noms that could be earned yesterday was 30, and you only earned 5. So how would you like to distribute them?
Oh thank you for pointing that out!

I'll just give Kaede the five nominations then, hopefully that works!
 

kaithehedgefox

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Messages
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For Reimu: I would say that we would either get, Reimu, Shantae, Freddy Fazbear, or another obscure indie rep, given that Shovel Knight is trapped in the assist trophy collection.

For Quote: Not only is Quote (Cave Story) too obscure to be playable, but also there would be other issues with him as well.

Like all obscure 3rd party characters, I will never want Quote (Cave Story) to be playable in any circumstance unless he cultivates fame later. But for Reimu on the other hand, I would love to see her be playable.
 
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Sari

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Sari Sari You gave 5 noms to the Curly concept, the 3rd party double dipping concept, Akuma and Trevor Philips. But you only rated a single character and earned 10 noms. So, who gets the noms?
Shouldn't I have gotten 20 noms in total? I thought abstaining meant you get 5 default noms so two abstains + the one actual rating means it should be 20.

If not then just give 5 noms each to Curly and the 3rd party double dip concept.
 

fogbadge

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For Reimu: I would say that we would either get, Reimu, Shantae, Freddy Fazbear, or another obscure indie rep, given that Shovel Knight is trapped in the assist trophy collection.

For Quote: Not only is Quote (Cave Story) too obscure to be playable, but also there would be other issues with him as well.

Like all obscure 3rd party characters, I will never want Quote (Cave Story) to be playable in any circumstance unless he cultivates fame later. But for Reimu on the other hand, I would love to see her be playable.
youre meant to give percentages
 

GoodGrief741

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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Shouldn't I have gotten 20 noms in total? I thought abstaining meant you get 5 default noms so two abstains + the one actual rating means it should be 20.

If not then just give 5 noms each to Curly and the 3rd party double dip concept.
I think abstaining gives you 5 noms only if you don't rate anything, it's the bare minimum for showing up. At least, that's how it's been so far.
 

Blankiturayman

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 17, 2014
Messages
459
Quote
Chance: 7%
Cave Story is generally attributed to as one of the games to put indies in the limelight worldwide, with many games after preceding its style. It's safe to say it's got an impact, and it's not like it's dormant; it's been ported over many times to many consoles, including of course Nintendo ones. Gotten updated releases, remasters, and what-have-you, it's overall a pretty well known game for an indie. I would say to some it's even "the" indie, but nowadays there's far more, Shovel Knight, Undertale, Hollow Knight, you get the idea. Nonetheless, Cave Story precedes all of those and that's a pretty good feat all in all. Quote (and Curly sometimes) make cameos in other indie games from time to time as well.

That all being said, I dunno if the priorities would be there too much for him. As we've seen a lot of indie content has been added into the game, mostly games that happened to make a breakthrough into being well known, and even then it was all content that wasn't fighters proper. That being said, if there's any character that could break the "playable indie fighter" barrier, I could see it being Quote. Of course, he's not the only one...

Want: 60%
This game is pretty fun and I really like Quote, I'd love to have him in the game, especially if they take advantage of how some weapons have mobility options and such. I could see him being a really fun fighter despite having mostly projectiles on his disposal. I'd say the only annoying thing really is that Nicalis happens to own the game and well; you know. It'd be better if it was attributed more to the original dev. That being said, when it comes to you know, Quote himself being in with a stage and music it'd be pretty cool.

Red Miko
Chance: 15%
Touhou on the other hand, has quite the pedigree. It's one of the oldest "indie" series to be around, although the term for it would be closer to "doujin" as that's what the games are labelled in Japan. With its first game being released in 1996, it quickly started becoming more and more popular as more entries were handed out. People loved both the characters and the games, and since the creator, ZUN, was completely fine with there being fanworks made of it, this quickly helped it become more popular through both fanworks and the games themselves. Over the years it's gotten all sorts of things, separate OSTs, novels, manga, and of course the games remain being made to this day. While mainly shoot em ups, there's spinoffs that are of other genres like fighting games. It even spawned a long-running set of conventions just for it in Japan, which is pretty good.

And although it popularity does indeed mainly stem from Japan, it's not completely absent elsewhere, as there's many groups that translate the proper games and fanworks, overall expanding the content and knowledge of it a huge lot. Of course, it's also not entirely separate to Nintendo. Reimu and a few other Touhou characters have appeared already in crossovers with Nintendo characters such as Kirby, not to mention there's already a lot of Touhou fangames on Switch, and ZUN has even expressed an interest in porting over some of the main games to the console. As of now, AoCF had some rumblings to be ported, but nothing has come of it. I think she's got an alright shot, but like any character, nothing is guaranteed and only time will tell how things go, especially in these late stages.

Want: 100%
I've probably made it pretty clear but yes, I'd love to see Reimu in the game. She's not even my favorite character from the series but I still like her a ton. Her personality might not seem that charming at first, but I ended up finding it endearing. Since she comes from a "bullet hell" type game, you'd think she'd mainly be a zoner, but I personally don't feel it has to be that way. Sure I'd give her a fair amount of projectiles through her homing ofuda and whatnot, but in the fighters, she's got a lot of close moves. She'd be great to play, I'd imagine her stage would just be the Hakurei Shrine, but the amount of music she'd come with could be just as if not bigger than the SNK amount with how lenient ZUN is. Of course, this also depends on how much the development team would be wanting to do. Nonetheless overall I'd be pretty happy with her inclusion. Would hope the spirits have the original ZUN art in all its glory.

Nominations:
Worms x20

Predictions:
Ryu: 55%
Adol: 25%
 

OpticalCellophane

Smash Rookie
Joined
Dec 24, 2020
Messages
16
I'll toss my hat in why not.

Quote:
Chance:
0%
Cave story is such a seminal game for so many people now as like, the inspiration of many indie projects. It's so influential Undertales title is just a synonym for it, a tale of the underground. I think Quote's a hecka neat design and I'd love to hear the music in Smash. Overall though I think his chances are slim pickings, not because of Quote's merits or lack there of and mostly just the absolute mess that is the Nicalis vs Pixel rights battle. All support behind Daisuke there.So I give it a 0% chance just based on the volatility of the rights issue.

Want: 60%
Among characters in Gaming out there that I would like to see in Smash Quote is one of the highest he's definitely a case where my beliefs on him and my desire for him are in complete opposition honestly his percent would be even higher if not for who he's being pitted against (spoiler).

Reimu Hakurei:
Chance: 25%
Reimu is a character who's position I find so many people from the outside looking in might not understand and has a lot of misinformation floating around for her. For example some people mistakenly think ZUN the creator of Touhou project is opposed to Touhou being involved in big projects due to betraying the "Doujin" spirit. This bit of misinformation comes from old interviews ZUN has had about an official touhou syndicated anime like 6 or 7 years ago. His reasoning then being that he didn't want people to forget the source of his series and think it was just an anime (funny considering the meme of "what's this anime?"
Another common misconception about Touhou is that it is "only popular in Japan" as a criticism for it's cult status in the west, but I think that leaves out an entire Hemisphere of the earth in the conversation. For example Touhou is actually quite popular in China and Korea as well, to the point there is a very professional fan made anime from China called "The Sealed Esoteric History."

In addition to this the usual things about Touhou can be brought up, the fact it's obscenely popular in japan, a multi world record holding series, has entire conventions themed after it and extremely influential in videogaming to the point that World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Undertale and more directly reference it. Hell the final boss of Undertale is a Touhou reference down to being an anagram of the original Touhou games final boss' name and wearing the exact same outfit. It's also weirdly referenced on American tv several times from CNN to ESPN to fricken Craig of the Creek, & Touhou videos routinely pull in millions of views and become memes in and of themselves very easily.

Finally I think it's worth addressing the Touhou has not been on Nintendo consoles/isn't available games in the west argument. I heard someone say there's only one "official" Touhou game in the west right now which is incorrect in fact using only the Touhou games ZUN had a direct hand in you can buy every single game from Mountain of Faith up not counting the fighting game spinoffs (except Antinomy of Common Flowers.) on Steam right now. There's also several Touhou games on Nintendo though they're "fangames" several of them are from companies that have worked on official Touhou games too. The Touhou cast has also on multiple occasions in the past had official crossovers with Kirby Mario and Splatoon for what it's worth through the Namco developed Taiko no Tatsujin series and is currently doing a joint media project with Hello Kitty of all things.

Want: 100%
A little obvious given the extent I discussed in the above section Reimu is my most wanted character in Smash. Do I necessarily expect her? Can't say too strongly one way or the other. But as far as wanting her I couldn't want anyone more. even mechanically I really dig the concept of an active risk vs reward built in projectile character that wants to duck and weave rather than the slow keepaway sort of deal we have now. And the music potential is out of this world. As is the stage potential.
I believe more than a lot of characters Reimu has a lot of content she can bring to smash beyond just herself being a playable character and that makes it a lot more exciting for me. I also think Touhou at it's core is the definition of Indie spirit more than any other series, having been going since the 90's consistently completely indie, hell Reimu is older than Lara Croft and still kicking around.
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
7,318
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
1609262580964.png

Y'know what I'm just gonna make this my RTC calling card now

Anyways. Reimu. Y'know, I think the first time I rated Reimu could be considered my first big writeup around here. In hindsight it was... Not the best. I was just a bit too overenthusiastic and I did a horrendous job at hiding my obvious bias. So let's try that again, shall we?

Shrine Maiden of Paradise ~ Reimu Hakurei
Reimu hails from the Touhou Project, usually just shortened to Touhou and officially titled Project Shrine Maiden in the West (Though nobody actually calls it that). Touhou is classified as a "doujin soft" game, a Japanese term for video games made by hobbyists for fun rather than profit. The term is basically the Japanese equivalent of an indie, and has a fair amount of overlap; As such, it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to call Touhou an indie as well.

Touhou started in 1996, with the release of Highly Responsive to Prayers for the PC-98. There, Reimu was portrayed as an inexperienced shrine maiden who had to guide around a bouncing Yin-Yang Orb in what was essentially an Arkanoid clone. The following games began to solidify the standard Touhou formula; A top-down shoot-em-up with intricate and difficult patterns, spread out across six increasingly difficult levels and an extra stage.

Starting with the sixth game, Embodiment of Scarlet Devil, the series moved away from the PC-98 and moved to Windows instead. This also brought about a soft reboot for the series; Only Reimu and her friend Marisa carried over, with radically different designs, the setting was established and developed a much tighter continuity, and various gameplay elements were implemented that would become series mainstays. The following game, Perfect Cherry Blossom, weeded out the more of the PC-98 era's elements and solidified the series in completely.

As of current, the Touhou Project has 17 mainline games, including the PC-98 releases. However, it has a sizable number of spin-off titles as well; These games are indicated by a decimal point in their numbering, based on the mainline titles they were released between-For example, Immaterial and Missing Power is numbered 7.5, and Fairy Wars is the 12.8th. These spin-offs include six fighting games, five unorthodox shooters, and an upcoming side-scrolling action game. In addition, Touhou has a sizeable amount of print works and music albums, expanding it's universe even further. These supplementary materials have good synergy with the games, with just about every game character getting a mention, and a couple characters from the books making appearances in the games.

Touhou takes place in a haunted region known as Gensokyo, sealed off from the Outside World, and housing humans and youkai alike. In Touhou, youkai are sustained by human fear. This becomes problematic when humans stop believing in superstitions and folklore. Gensokyo is a land where forgotten things go, like extinct animals or lost tools, making it a safe haven for weakened youkai. Gensokyo is separated from the Outside World by the Great Hakurei Barrier, which is maintained by the Hakurei Shrine, managed by Reimu herself. Since Gensokyo is depended on the existence of the barrier, Reimu has a very important job on her hands.

In order to perpetuate Genoskyo's existence, the spell card system was put in place. The spell card system acts as an equalizer, so that humans may defend themselves and youkai may sustain themselves, without bloodshed from either party. In gameplay, this serves to justify the existence of the danmaku patterns, right down to the names. The ease of battle, coupled with the lack of injury, has also led to the inhabitants of Gensokyo fighting at the drop of a hat for varying reasons, often times just because.

The main crux of the game's plots revolve around Incidents; Various abnormal events. These Incidents vary in severity, from something as life-threatening as an eternal winter to SUDDENLY, FLYING BOAT. Reimu, Marisa, and whoever else they may have brought along then set out to resolve these Incidents by beating up everyone in their path until they get to the culprit. Due to the aforementioned spell card system, the culprit usually caused the Incident just because they were bored, and are let off the hook just as easily. There are some exceptions, but the amount of instigators who weren't forgiven can be counted on one hand.

An interesting thing to note is Touhou's staggeringly-large cast of characters, with the majority having a minor role and a very vague personality. This leads to many different interpretations, as well as minor characters suddenly becoming extremely popular. It should also be noted that at least 95% of the entire cast is female, with the only recurring males being a non-combatant and a cloud person who needs a female character to act as his hitbox. ZUN has admitted that Touhou has a reputation of using girls in fancy outfits over spaceships and military vehicles like most bullet hells, so he can't add a male character even if he wanted to.

There are many, many characters; So many that I can't even make a list of them. I will, however, point out that Touhou powers are jacked. Reimu's ability to float means that she can float away from reality itself and become invincible, Yuyuko can induce death and kill you instantly, Yukari can manipulate borders, which pretty much means she can manipulate reality, Keine can EAT HISTORY, so on and so forth. I still don't understand how some of these things work.

The Touhou Project's real claim to fame is it's absolutely massive fanbase. Despite it's status as a simple shoot-em-up, the colorful cast of characters, coupled with ZUN's incredibly lax and encouraging attitude towards fanworks, has lead to Touhou becoming a major pillar of the doujin scene, though in the Touhou fandom this term is usually used to refer to Touhou fanworks. The Touhou Project dominates fan conventions, enough that it got a yearly convention all to itself in the form of Reitaisai. While the fandom isn't at the same level as it's peak thanks to the advent of more recent doujin games, the Touhou fandom is still going strong to this day.

The sheer amount of Touhou fanworks is so large that some fans aren't even aware that the fanchise is based around the games. Many fan-made anime adaptdations exist of the series, though ZUN is adamantly against an official adaptation, and multiple fangames have been produced as well, from Touhou versions of other games like Castlevania and Mega Man to original creations; Some are serious, while others are offbeat and based around fandom in-jokes and memes.

And, of course, the music. The soundtrack of Touhou games is held in very high regard, and the amount of remixes the fandom puts out is absolutely ludicrous. To put it into perspective, the average Touhou song has between 60 and 200 remixes, with some songs outright overshadowing the original and getting remixes of their own; For example, Bad Apple!! feat. nomico, or Night of Nights (Which is one of the songs listed in today's mood-setters).

Oh yeah, and this... Whatever the %$#@ this is supposed to be.
I would have listed even more, but SmashBoards won't let me enter more than 25 pieces of media. As such, I've decided to leave a link to this massive playlist right here for further reading.

Personally, I'm pretty optimistic on Reimu's chances. Not in an exceedingly heretical mood today, so I'm gonna translate that into a 50%. Touhou is one of, if not the biggest indie not yet represented in Smash, and arguably the biggest indie game period. Nintendo has been very friendly with indies as of late, and Smash has gradually been adding indie content to Smash: A Commander Video trophy in Smash 4, a Shovel Knight AT in Ultimate, Miis for Sans and Cuphead, and Steve, a former indie, as a fighter. However, we haven't had a full indie fighter yet; Even if Minecraft used to be an indie, it's Microsoft's IP now.

There are three things brought up against Reimu's chances: Lack of Nintendo connection, being Japan exclusive, and heavy usage of fangames. That being said, I feel that it's not quite as one-sided as some may suggest.

First off, Nintendo connections. For one, there's a decent amount of Touhou fangames on the Switch already, so you can type Touhou into the eShop search bar and get some results back already. For another, Nintendo (And Sega too) sold Touhou arrange CDs at Reitaisai, the dedicated Touhou convention. Lastly, ZUN has stated that he's considering porting the fighting game Antimony of Common Flowers to the Switch. At the very least, both parties are seem to be aware that cooperation is a profitable avenue, and are considering the possibility. Perhaps Reimu in Smash could be the final push they need?

On a semi-related note, recently Touhou had a crossover with Hello Kitty, the second-biggest franchise PERIOD. That's huge. In addition, Sanrio stated the reason for the crossover was Touhou's increasing popularity with younger children. If Nintendo needs someone who appeals more to younger audiences, Reimu could work fairly well (Granted, that's probably not a very picky demographic). Regardless, this proves that Touhou is at least big enough to catch the eye of larger companies. Besides, we've already gotten some more distant third-parties with Snake, Cloud, and Joker. Perhaps Reimu will be FP2's "distant" character.

Reimu also got a cameo in Taiko no Tatsujin RPG, which is on the 3DS and the Switch. This is notable because it also contains characters from Ace Attorney, Monster Hunter, Yo-kai Watch, and Nintendo's very own Kirby. Aside from the fact that Reimu is on the same screen as Kirby and Phoenix Wright, it's Reimu, Kirby, and Phoenix Wright on the same screen WHAT ARE THE BAMCO GUYS SMOKING.

Second problem, perceived Japanese exclusivity. That's a bit of a misconception, actually. Aside from the numerous Touhou fangames already on the Switch, some of which are localized, there's also twelve Touhou games on Steam. Granted, only one of them is translated, but that's not out of lack of care; Rather, it's because the fanbase will just create their own translation in a couple days, defeating the need for ZUN to translate the text himself and allowing him to focus his effort elsewhere. I could honestly see Sakurai walking us through a setup of the Touhou Community Reliant Automatic Patcher (THCRAP) in Reimu's presentation. It may seem a bit odd, but hey, we would've said the same about Sakurai plugging the Xbox in a Nintendo livestream.

That being said, Touhou is still very Japan-centric, and the more roundabout ways to get into it may pose a bit of an issue. If Reimu gets in, there would more than likely be a lot of "bruh literally who" moments from the Western fanbase, and she would most definitely be a Japan-appeal rep. If we get a Japan-centric character who isn't Reimu, my optimism would drop significantly.

Something to note is that the worries about region-centric characters comes from the Sakurai interview about Takamaru, and to a lesser extent Ayumi Tachibana being dropped from Melee. While that's true, Touhou is a wee bit bigger than either of those games. Unless, of course, Mysterious Murasame Castle is actually a long-running series with 17 main installments and a convention all to itself. I think Touhou's overwhelming popularity in Japan is enough for it to break through, while Takamaru has just one game, a couple ports where it's just one of the many games included and a handful of references throughout various Nintendo games. Also I sacrificed Takamaru's soul to ensure Reimu's inclusion so he is now super dead sorry guys

Lastly, the fangame issue. Honestly, I think this one's pretty overblown. Sure, Nintendo is super stingy with their IPs and despise fangames... But that's only because it's fangames of their IPs. If it's for any other game, Nintendo won't give a %$#@. Sonic Mania? Minecraft mods? Nintendo doesn't care at all. IF it's not using their IP, they won't come after you. Touhou isn't their IP, so they wouldn't care. That's all that needs to be said, really.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that I'll be rating Reimu a full 100%. I found Touhou through this remixer named RichaadEB, who did an entire album of Touhou metal covers. I just went down the rabbit hole from there. I even made an admittedly exaggerated Touhou Challenger Pack concept, which you can see here:
https://fantendo.fandom.com/wiki/Super_Smash_Bros._Ultimate_X_Touhou_Project
I might want to go back and touch up some things here, namely Reimu's moveset, but I feel that it's overall a pretty good introduction to the franchise.

I also kinda sorta copied a large portion of the intro for this essay. It's not plagiarism if you own the thing though, right?

Eheheheh...

Abstaining on Quote, I don't have enough writer stamina left after the massive Reimupost
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
1,045
Location
ZE BATH
Again? Well okay.

First up, Reimu:
ANIMU GIRL 2: EAT THE ****ING APPLE.

Chance: Changed to 1%


Now this..............is interesting. Look, when people say Indies, most imagine a one off small game or little series that only started in the late 2000s and early 2010s that recently got ported to Consoles...........Touhou is not that. Not only does this franchise have over 20 games (far more than other franchises represented in Smash like Fire Emblem, Metroid, and maybe even some Third Parties) it's very damn old. The very first game was released for PC 98...........in 1997. This series predates Banjo Kazooie and SMASH. It's been featured on Swtich!.................in a way.

Another interesting detail about Touhou is its relation to Fan Products. Not only does the creator approve of the Fan Content, he embraces and encourages it, due to the series's heavy focus on Doujin (basically self-published independent works, both original and based on existing properties). So much so that There's a Dojin Distributor called "PLAY DOUJIN!" that does nothing but publish official Doujin Touhou games on non-PC platforms, including the Switch, and Yes, these games have been released worldwide (hell i remember seeing a Nintendo Switch Physical Copy of a Touhou game in my local Mall Plaza in Chile, back when Corona Meant beer) so while the presence of "official" Touhou games on Nintendo may be small, the fans have basically given it life on that platform (obviously with the creator's blessing). They rival Sonic's fanbase when it comes to fan projects, both amazing and "creepy" (trust me) it's just that Zun operates in a different world from Sega when it comes to copyright so Touhou's fan-projects are more visible.

Oh and Zun wants a Touhou character in Smash, but that's not surprising at all. At this point i would be more surprised to some developers saying NO.

So why is she is so low? Again, low worldwide popularity like Arle, but Reimu's case it's even worse. Unlike Arle's franchise Touhou is STILL very unkown outside of its target audience: The "Otaku" (or nowadays "Weeb") crowd. This is what you call and "underground" franchise, it' has a vocal and passionate following but it's not super large and it's from a completely different realm from the Smash's fanbase (hell, even the casual Smash players) interests and tastes, and that already kills a lot of her chances in my eyes, that and the whole competition and first party things, this only makes it worse for Reimu. It's mostly because of the franchise's themes and concepts though. Unlike Puyo above, where the only Japanese thing was the focus on cutesy stuff, Touhou takes pride and joy in being HEAVILY based on Eastern Mythology and ideas, it's even in the name ( Touhou means "Eastern") and such it features many concepts and folklore only those heavily familiar with them could understand what is essentially one of the main appeals of this franchise.

Yeah Reimu is sort of becoming more talked about now, but it's still a really unpopular choice for Smash all around. Even in Japan, where her most of her fanbase resides, she's not usually that super requested requested either. Others like Bandanna Dee, Steve, Rex and even Sora are more popular there when it comes to Smash newcomer ideas. By the time people got to talk about Reimu in a larger capacity, the base roster, Fighter Pass 1 and maybe even Fighter Pass 2 have already been made. It's not the fan requests NOW that matter, but those that happened before Ultimate and/or its DLC Started development, like Banjo's massive support in 2015. Arle on the other hand, actually had support as early as the Smash Ballot days, and that suppor has been slowly but surely growing in Japan AND the rest of the world. Compare that to Reimu, where you have some Japanese Support, and very, very small Worldwide Support. I don't even remember Reimu's name being even mentioned ONCE in the Smash 4 days or the Smash 4 DLC days or even the Smash Ultimate base roster days (guess the Grinch hogged all the attention)

There's Hero, but Hero is basically seen as one of the pioneers of one of the most popular Genres in Japan and Gaming as a whole. Terry is only unpopular in America, America Is NOT "The West", there's also Mexico, Central America and the entirety of South America , most areas where Terry is actually well known and loved.

I gotta agree with that one user who i cannnot remember their name, Reimu feels like a character /V/ is trying to meme into existence.

TL;DR Insert Double D's "In Japan" Quote here

Want: 0%

Yeah no thanks either. Im not a fan of Touhou or its themes, ideas, folklore that features (at least, no in the way it uses them) Yeah the music is great, but Smash has like 1000 songs at this point and now im starting to prefer to idea of cutting filler songs in Ult instead of wishing for more.
As you can see, my stance has changed in a far more pessimistic way. Why? Simply put, in retrospect, i should have not given Reimu any chance higher than 1%.. I hate using other people's posts to augment my arguments by Louie G puts it perfectly (my rating is lower than his due to me having a harsher rating system):

Sorry, I'm gonna be a bit harsh on this one. I'm not trying to be rude or finger-pointy or anything, although the fullest extent I'll go with that is this: Reimu is a character whose significance and likelihood are grossly overstated by a lot of her support base, arguably moreso than most other characters I've seen. Let's just get into why I feel that way.

Let's start with why people consider Reimu to be worth talking about in the first place. Touhou is gigantic in Japan. It's a hugely successful series and has a long legacy upwards of two decades, all created by indie developer ZUN. This puts Touhou in a unique position of being an indie franchise that predates many of our most popular indies of today by some time. It would predate Shantae by about 5 years (and Shantae, at the time, was being published by Capcom) and Cave Story by about 7 years, and has arguably reached significantly higher heights than both of those series. So at first glance, Reimu, being the protagonist of this series, has a lot in her favor. Popular? Iconic? Great legacy? Check check and check... but....

This is all just in Japan. If we flip the script and focus on the west, the situation is much different. Touhou has a following, a fairly prominent one online, but the biggest problem isn't really popularity. The biggest problem with Touhou in the west, and in regards to Smash, is accessibility.

Smash is certainly not above promoting series with smaller followings. It's responsible for the relative success of Mother and Fire Emblem in the west. Ignoring the obvious part about Mother and FE being first party series, Nintendo has little benefit in promoting something like Touhou in contrast with a series that they have direct stake in. But furthermore, most of Touhou's games are not readily accessible and a majority of them are not translated for western audiences. Most of Touhou's western audience has used English patches to understand the games, which are not officially endorsed and therefore don't provide an easy way for these audiences to enjoy it without the language barrier. I've heard that some of the latest titles have been translated, but this is only a recent trend. It would be very difficult to promote such a long legacy of games that are fundamentally inaccessible to at least half of your audience.

That's the bottom line with Reimu really. Nintendo needs to sell a character worldwide, and Touhou's presence is extremely skewed toward a Japanese audience. Even though series like Dragon Quest are more popular in Japan than they are in the west, DQ in particular has been properly localized and has reached notable success across the whole world. Sure, it's not the cultural phenomenon here that it is in Japan, but it's prominent enough in the west for me to have heard about it before I started playing RPGs myself, and to see commercials for it and read about it in Nintendo Power. It was certainly around - Touhou is just not. Its presence in the west is minimal and her inclusion would only be of significant benefit in one side of the world. Even though Smash's choices are ultimately made in Japan and skew toward a Japanese audience, there isn't precedent for choosing a third party DLC character whose presence in the west lies mostly in fan patches and remixes on YouTube. There just isn't enough there for Reimu to be a profitable inclusion in the wider scope of things, when most of her games are effectively blocked off from an audience who would be introduced to her for the first time
TL;DR the problem with Touhou isn't just that it is extremely unpopular outside of Japan to the point that its western fanbase is underground (in the same way i see the likes of Doomguy as extremely unlikely due to their obscurity in Japan) but also that they aren't accessible in general, period.

At least with say Terry, no matter how unknown to Americans he is, any American with an Eshop account can go and buy a FF and KOF game, and also do it on PS Store, or Xbox Live Arcade or Steam and the like, this is something Touhou simply can't do, if you want to play these games you NEED to go out of your way to play it, with Patches and ****, something that i reckon Nintendo does not want people to go out to do. This is one character i don't see Nintendo choosing, who btw have a say in the DLC, and neither do i see Sakurai, since he has made an increasing attempt at choosing characters that appeal to worldwide audiences (Little Mac, the Belmonts, Ridley, Steve, etc) to chose a character like Reimu would go against the current direction Smash is going, and even in Japan there are characters that are also requested and i don't need to make a scene in order to play it.

And regarding want, yeah i still don't want her close to Smash as possible. I don't want to say i hate everything weeb related, but Touhou rubs me the wrong way (i guess the likes of Azur Lane and similar works have just make repell anything that is filled to the brim with "moe" anime girl casts, i know it's reductive as hell but you can see it in a similar way to how some people just hate modern superhero movies due to how over saturated they are), and her genre is one of those i simply can't get into (i SUCK at normal Shoot Em Ups, it's the one classic arcade genre i simply can't get into) so there's no way Reimu would introduce me to her games or genre. and no matter how good the music is, i rate the characters, not the music.

This is one character that would definitely disappoint me, instead of just not being of my taste.

Anyway, onto the ONE indie i actually care about:

Im not super interesed in her, but i see the appeal. I haven't played any of her games outside of emulating the GBC one, but i did bought her in Blaster Master Zero so i can imagine how she would play out.

Mr. Traveler.

Chance: 10%

Unfortunately, as much as it pains to sell him short, he isn't likely. Yes he is an icon among indies, beign one of the earliest successes of a large caliber coming from a small developer. But it has never gotten a sequel or spin off. Still, it has been ported to multiple systems of recent generations, it has been featured in more minor crossovers such as Blade Strangers, i guess the possibility is always there and-


-oh wait, the company that owns him did a bad thing oh no! He can't be in Smash now! IN fact, we most remove Snake and the Belmonts, Konami did bad things too! Remember #****Konami? We can't be hypocrites? How about Crapcom? Remove them too because they are greedy and bad. Remove Sonic because SEGA is an American Traitor! (don't ask) remove Joker because Atlus is............homophobe/transphobe! yeah, because one Twitter fella said so! Remove all bad companies!

In fact, we should exclude Sora since he is owned by the Walt Disney Company, the satan of companies, and we know Nintendo is innocent, they are japanese, and based japan is always innocent! (forget all the japanese companies i mentioned above you dummy!)
......


...........


Yeah im just taking the piss out of these "arguments".

Want:50%

I enjoyed Cave Story ever since i was a child, and i would be okay with this inclusion. I would take him over Shantae, Shovel Knight, and especially over Reimu's overrated ass any day. Im biased here, no doubt about that.


and yet, i'm not super compelled in his inclusion, probably because i'm not super supportive of a character that doesn't seem likely, unless it's someone i'm SUPER passionate about, like i was with Simon. Still, i probably would be more excited for him once he is revealed. I just hope his look is more based on his appearance in the in-game artwork found in the credits, rather than the Super-Deformed stuff.

Not much to say here. I still think this is the best bet when it comes to an Indie Rep. It may not have Reimu's long game list, but Quote's ONE game managed to have far more appeal worldwide than Reimu's entire series, so i think that counts for something. Nothing has changed in my eyes for me to raise or lower Quote's chances or my interest.

All in all, here are the updated ratings:

Reimu: 1% Chance. 0% Want.

Quote: 10% Chance. 50% Want.
 
Last edited:

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
Let me jump back here for a second to say something I've been saying a lot over time.

Just because a company is ******* that doesn't mean that Nintendo will be deterred from working with them. Look at Konami. They have done some messed up stuff and yet they still got plenty of content in the game. Look at Nintendo themselves. They certainly are not squeaky clean. Between the whole joy-con drifting fiasco and the Melee drama, Nintendo has shown that they don't care about drama.

The point is, Nintendo is just like any other company. In the case with Cave Story, if Nintendo sees money (Which with Cave Story's pedigree they probably would) and they are able to afford the rights to the IP, they will do it if they want to do it. Money talks above all else.
 

OpticalCellophane

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Messages
16
Let me jump back here for a second to say something I've been saying a lot over time.

Just because a company is ******* that doesn't mean that Nintendo will be deterred from working with them. Look at Konami. They have done some messed up stuff and yet they still got plenty of content in the game. Look at Nintendo themselves. They certainly are not squeaky clean. Between the whole joy-con drifting fiasco and the Melee drama, Nintendo has shown that they don't care about drama.

The point is, Nintendo is just like any other company. In the case with Cave Story, if Nintendo sees money (Which with Cave Story's pedigree they probably would) and they are able to afford the rights to the IP, they will do it if they want to do it. Money talks above all else.
For me it's less that Nicalis are bad, they are but more just that CaveStory in particular right now is a property that is in dispute. Like a year from now it could have different ownership than it does now. Nintendo themselves are not clean but they're nothing if not cautious. Same deal with Konami, they're a controversial company but the properties actually being dealt with are unequivocally their properties to sign away for Smash.
 

Neosonic97

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For me it's less that Nicalis are bad, they are but more just that CaveStory in particular right now is a property that is in dispute. Like a year from now it could have different ownership than it does now.
This, basically, is the biggest reason why Quote is unlikely. There would be no point negotiating with Cave Story's owners if the IP suddenly trades hands, forcing them to negotiate again.
 
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DrifloonEmpire

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This, basically, is the biggest reason why Quote is unlikely. There would be no point negotiating with Cave Story's owners if the IP suddenly trades hands, forcing them to negotiate again.
And how many times has it changed hands since Nicalis got it?
 

RouffWestie

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Quote
Chance: 5%
Outside of it's legacy as a major achievement for a single developer, Cave Story doesn't have much reason to be prioritized by Nintendo. There's bigger IPs I see Nintendo aiming to get into Smash first. The game doesn't really persist as a franchise in this day and age, and without massive support like Banjo-Kazooie, I think that's going to hurt his chances.
Want: 11%
Like I said when he was rated before, Cave Story was fun and didn't really leave any incredible impression on me. I'm familiar with the character and would recognize the content he'd come with. I'm mostly indifferent to him as of now.
Reimu
Chance: 30%
She'd be a big deal for Japan, but would definitely leave the West more lost and confused. I could see Nintendo settling on a Mii Costume or Spirit Event to kind of meet in the middle; giving Touhou some representation in Smash feels sensible for the "celebration of gaming," angle, but it's possible devoting that much time+money to a character who isn't widely recognizable isn't something they want to do.
Want: 1%
Touhou music would be worth having, but I've got no interest in Reimu as a potential fighter. I'm only a fan of Cirno and Flandre Scarlet. I wouldn't complain if she wasn't in.
 
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Sari

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For me it's less that Nicalis are bad, they are but more just that CaveStory in particular right now is a property that is in dispute. Like a year from now it could have different ownership than it does now.
This, basically, is the biggest reason why Quote is unlikely. There would be no point negotiating with Cave Story's owners if the IP suddenly trades hands, forcing them to negotiate again.
While the topic of who owns Cave Story might be a bit confusing, I'm pretty sure Nicalis has owned the rights to it since around 2010 when the WiiWare ports happened. I don't think Pixel has ever really disputed with them about it in regards to legal rights about it, so Nintendo wouldn't really have to worry about the Cave Story rights going to someone else.
 

SharkLord

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Let me jump back here for a second to say something I've been saying a lot over time.

Just because a company is ******* that doesn't mean that Nintendo will be deterred from working with them. Look at Konami. They have done some messed up stuff and yet they still got plenty of content in the game. Look at Nintendo themselves. They certainly are not squeaky clean. Between the whole joy-con drifting fiasco and the Melee drama, Nintendo has shown that they don't care about drama.

The point is, Nintendo is just like any other company. In the case with Cave Story, if Nintendo sees money (Which with Cave Story's pedigree they probably would) and they are able to afford the rights to the IP, they will do it if they want to do it. Money talks above all else.
For me, the problem is that apparently, Nicalis has outright ghosted collaborators. I'm not sure if Nintendo would be willing to risk that with a big project like Smash.
And regarding want, yeah i still don't want her close to Smash as possible. I don't want to say i hate everything weeb related, but Touhou rubs me the wrong way (i guess the likes of Azur Lane and similar works have just make repell anything that is filled to the brim with "moe" anime girl casts, i know it's reductive as hell but you can see it in a similar way to how some people just hate modern superhero movies due to how over saturated they are), and her genre is one of those i simply can't get into (i SUCK at normal Shoot Em Ups, it's the one classic arcade genre i simply can't get into) so there's no way Reimu would introduce me to her games or genre. and no matter how good the music is, i rate the characters, not the music.
Ah yes,
1609293775698.png

MOE
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
265
Reimu Hakurei
Chance: 13%
Touhou has a lot of things going for it. Legacy, relevancy, popularity, a developer who's easy to work with. The one thing it's missing, is western mainstream appeal. The question is really if the eastern fanbase is big enough to warrant inclusion, to which I would say absolutely. This is also true for a lot of series/characters, so it is by no means a guarantee, but Reimu definitely has a shot.

Want: 100%
My want is already at 100% just for the music alone. Fans of the series have already made fantastic arrangements and remixes of the songs. Having the prolific lineup of composers in Smash try their hand at it would be amazing.
As for Reimu herself, her design is pretty basic, but has a lot of flair to it. As for the gameplay, there's different directions they could take it, like taking from fangames. Personally though, I'd like to see the Shmup gameplay translated into Smash.


Quote
Double abstain. I don't know much about it and don't have the time to research at the moment.

Predictions
Hayabusa: 17.8%
Adol: 11.3%

Nominations
Beat x15 (or as much as I qualify for)
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Looks like I picked a good day to return, even if it's just to say my thoughts on Reimu. Skipping Quote since I'm not too familiar with Cave Story.

Reimu's Chance: 35%
Reimu I feel is in an interesting position - Touhou is extremely popular (Largely in Japan+China) and influential on certain franchises (glances to Undertale), but it doesn't have a gripping presence in overseas audiences like America or Europe. It still has overseas fans, but it's a bit on the niche side of things, compared to other indie franchises like Shantae or Shovel Knight. In the Smash 4 days, Reimu wouldn't likely stand a chance, but now that people are thinking a bit more outside the box since the Sans Mii Costume or Steve being discussed and later becoming playable, I think the fanbase is starting to think, "Yeah it'd be awesome if we could see Reimu and Touhou in Smash! Let's Go!!!" and she's seeing quite a growing support base amongst the Smash fandom. Give or take a few years, she might be one of the future faces of Smash speculation.

As for moveset potential, Reimu could easily be something akin to a crazy zoner character but also bring unique elements of Touhou to Smash as well, such as Grazing to avoid attacks, Spell Cards and Bombs as well and great music+stage potential for Gensokyo's memorable locales - Scarlet Devil Mansion, the Hakurei Shrine, etc.

What could potentially hinder Reimu and Touhou's potential chances at Smash could be a few factors: It being a largely Japan-based series until recent years means it doesn't have a huge overseas audience that overlaps with the Smash fanbase (There are plenty of Touhou official games and fan-games available on Steam though), and it's not exactly a franchise that has an long presence on Nintendo. Yet in a counterpoint, we've got some Touhou fan games like Luna Night on Switch, that Mystery Dungeon inspired 2hu game whose name I can't remember right now, and also crossover history with Nintendo franchises in a Taiko no Tatsujin game (Japan only) of all things, even with Phoenix Wright too! So I'd say Reimu and Touhou have enough presence on Nintendo to be recognised by fans in Nintendo's audiences.

Want: 95%
Absolutely! I first started getting into Touhou around the 2010s (good god) after learning of the characters through fan-art and enjoying the gorgeous music (Thanks ZUN) Although Reimu isn't my number one 2hu, I still think she'd be the best one to represent Touhou in Smash Bros.

Oh, and it's Hayabusa tomorrow? Guess I'll jump back in tomorrow to give my thoughts on him, but I'll say my prediction is around 50%.
 

PK-remling Fire

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755
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Abstaining on Quote

Reimu

Chance of Happening -
5%
Reimu's in a bit of a unique position compared to other characters, considering she was a massive icon back during Touhou's apex, with plenty of memes and general internet culture being derived from Touhou. Even other popular games such as Undertale and League of Legends has either elements or gameplay that was directly inspired by Touhou, and its impact to video game culture isn't something to be ignored. With that being said, Touhou's popularity has waned over the last couple years, though its fanbase is still dedicated. The main hurdle that Reimu has to face is the fact that while she's extremely recognizable in the east, she is almost completely unknown amongst western audiences. Her chances are not zero, but the fact that she's competing against big names in gaming is an uphill battle.

Want - 100%
Reimu would be an amazing pick for Smash Bros. Not only does she have a full moveset from the plethora of official fighting games to choose from, but she would fill in a ton of criteria for Smash Bros, being another female fighter as well as the first indie character and the first rep from the shump genre. Not to mention Touhou music in smash would be godly.
 

Louie G.

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REIMU

Chance: 2%

I'll keep it brief because my thoughts haven't changed that much since last time, and my previous assessment has been quoted by P Phoenix Douchebag above. The difference though is that I'm rating Reimu even lower than before. Since the last writeup we've gotten Steve and Sephiroth, and effectively the more characters we get the less of a chance one of them is Reimu. Or anyone else, for that matter, but the point still stands. I'm still fairly confident in Hayabusa and I'm feeling like we're getting a Capcom character, so that leaves one opening that I don't believe has much of a chance of going to Reimu.

But yeah - lack of accessibility outside of Japan is Reimu's fatal flaw. If there were officially released translations of Touhou games available on Switch then that would be soooo good and helpful for her - just as it was for pointing audiences unfamiliar with Terry toward an easy way to get acquainted with him. Instead though, you gotta dig through Touhou fansites to find ROMs and/or translations to play on your PC. As I addressed last time I know the series has been getting better at actual proper localized releases, but it's hard to deny that this is a problem. For lesser known characters (at least in the west, in Reimu's case) this accessibility is key.

Also, as big as Reimu is in Japan (which is a major point that gets brought up) there are several other characters - like Monster Hunter or Arle - who will accomplish that same goal and also provide a character who western fans are either already familiar with or can be very easily familiarized with. Couple that with the fact that both of these aforementioned series have had significant push toward greater popularity in the west not just by their respective companies but also Nintendo themselves. Touhou is a relative unknown in the west AND has no real Nintendo support to speak of - never been in a Nintendo Direct, or indie Direct for that matter, and really boils down to like one or two trailers dropped on Nintendo's youtube - so it's not even like there's any incentive for Nintendo to introduce the west to an obscure series or something. There's just so little here for Reimu. I'm sorry to all her very passionate supporters, but I still fail to see it and I feel like many people here are greatly overestimating things.

That wasn't very brief huh? Well, I consider Reimu to be a very interesting character. Lots to say and discuss. Even though I don't think she's likely at all I find her situation to be fascinating and worth talking about anyway.

Want: 45%
Same as last time. I am not very familiar with Touhou from personal experience but I have many friends who absolutely love the series. I would be happy on their behalf and I think Reimu has the potential to be a very fun fighter. She's just not someone who I feel anything significant toward.

QUOTE

Chance: 5%

I'll keep this one brief too, but only because there isn't much to say. He's predated by Reimu herself, so he's not exactly the "first indie" but I would credit him / Cave Story for essentially pioneering this new wave of indie titles that we've seen blossom over the last decade. That's certainly no small feat, but I have a hard time seeing Quote, or any other indie character, chosen at this point. To put it bluntly, if we couldn't get an Undertale character I don't see us getting a Cave Story character. Unless Nintendo really wants to lean into that historical impact of Cave Story.

The best thing Quote has going for him is that Cave Story has always been kind of synonymous with and loyal to Nintendo. If they wanted a face to put in Smash and really celebrate the whole "Nindies" thing they have going on I suppose Quote is sort of the OG. Still, with Shovel Knight as an AT and Sans as a Mii Costume... the best I can see Quote getting is a Mii Costume as well. Cave Story isn't quite as big as it used to be, either.

Want: 75%
Would be very cool. Would rather have an Undertale character, but I'd be satisfied.

PREDICTIONS:
Hayabusa - 52.75%
Adol - 15.4%

NOMS: Billy & Jimmy Lee x5
(Did we do that one? I nominated it a while ago but I sat out of RTC for a good while too)
 
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NintenZ

Smash Legend
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Let me jump back here for a second to say something I've been saying a lot over time.

Just because a company is ******* that doesn't mean that Nintendo will be deterred from working with them. Look at Konami. They have done some messed up stuff and yet they still got plenty of content in the game. Look at Nintendo themselves. They certainly are not squeaky clean. Between the whole joy-con drifting fiasco and the Melee drama, Nintendo has shown that they don't care about drama.

The point is, Nintendo is just like any other company. In the case with Cave Story, if Nintendo sees money (Which with Cave Story's pedigree they probably would) and they are able to afford the rights to the IP, they will do it if they want to do it. Money talks above all else.
I probably should’ve specified in my initial post, I’m more uncertain if Nintendo would want to go through Tyrone Rodriguez if anything since he’s the head of the company and has had numerous allegations against him about inappropriate behavior and creating a toxic work environment, I imagine they’d have to go through him for negotiations which is why I’m more uncertain than anything.
 

Dan Quixote

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 25, 2020
Messages
1,106
Location
Florida
Oop looks like I missed the RaidAluZero day. And Jesus, y'all are really pessimistic about Assist Trophy upgrades lmao. Guess I'll keep that in mind for my future preds. Now onto my second submission ever yayyyyy

Hang on, lemme think of a King for Another Day joke

CHANCE - 5%
This would be way higher if you asked me ten years ago. Not only was Quote once the literally "king of indies" but Cave Story itself was Nintendo's first foray into supporting indie devs. Nintendo famously looooves their indies nowadays, and that began when they would actually advertise small indies as WiiWare, and they actually put a lot of thought into it. Some of the most famous and best selling WiiWare games were indies, with World of Goo, Bit.Trip, and even Cave Story being iconic to the system. If Nintendo had been more on board with third parties or indies in the Brawl days, I really think Quote would already be in. That's sadly long past now, and Nintendo has a lot of new favorite indies that are exclusive to or most famously on their consoles. Plus all the issues with Nicalis that put Cave Story in a weird legal spot that might make Nintendo not want to touch him, it just seems like Quote's past his prime, how tragic.

WANT - 50%
Quote's a cool guy, Cave Story's a cool game. The stage and soundtrack would be dope, and Quote has a lot to pull from for a moveset. The legacy of Cave Story also definitely deserves a spotlight here. I just don't have a big connection personally to Quote or Cave Story. While I don't think that there's like, only one spot reserved for indies or something like that, there are other indies I'd like to see first. But yeah, still 50% just cuz there's zero problems I have with Quote.

Toho, the studio that makes Godzilla

CHANCE - 30%
Call me an optimist, but Reimu just feels right. To be honest Touhou is such a big name that Reimu almost doesn't feel indie. The series has been consistently popular for over 20 years now, and it has a strong foothold in the west now too. People underestimate that part. Like I'm not gonna say my parents would recognize a Touhou character if they saw one but anyone who is at least a bit entrenched in anime or video games will know what it is, especially with having one of the most famous soundtracks of all time. If Nintendo were to go for an indie pick, I easily see them going for a Japanese dev just for simplicity's sake, and Shanghai Alice seems easy to work with. Only 30% because it's still indie and still mostly Japanese-centered, plus none of the main series being on Switch (or any console) but if I saw Reimu appear in a trailer I really would not be that shocked.

WANT - 70%
Touhou music in Smash yo. That's not the only reason but it's probably the biggest fraction of my want out of almost any fighter lol. I just think Reimu deserves it, she's someone I've known about since I was a kid, and bullet hells are just a classic genre that I grew up with and are somehow not represented in Smash yet. I usually don't care about representation but cmon, it's a whole genre. Also Reimu just feels like she'd fit right in, have a cool moveset based around movement and projectiles (so I'd probably suck playing as her but oh well) and my desire to see an indie fighter is quite high. Honestly a percentage as high as 70% is hard to justify for me but man I just want it to happen.

Nominations: Honestly I still don't know how these work, everyone seems to have different amounts of noms available to them and I can't tell how many I'm supposed to have. I guess Tetra x however many I have? Someone pls explain heh
EDIT: I suppose this is twenty noms for Tetra now that it's been explained to me

Predictions: Ryu Hayabusa 65%, Adol Christin 10%
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Nominations: Honestly I still don't know how these work, everyone seems to have different amounts of noms available to them and I can't tell how many I'm supposed to have. I guess Tetra x however many I have? Someone pls explain heh

Predictions: Ryu Hayabusa 65%, Adol Christin 10%
I'll do a breakdown quick for you, hopefully this helps anyone else with the same question since we've had a lot of people ask lately.
0 noms - Posts with less than 2 sentences in each for a character
5 noms - Abstaining or just scrapping past the minimum for sentences.
10 noms - 10+ sentences on a character but still with at least 2 in both, so you can't type a novel for chance and have your want be just "**** no" for example.

You also can get extra noms for winning predictions and on days like today you get noms per character rated, so if you go 10+ on both Reimu and Quote today then you have 20 noms to assign. I don't know what happens if you earn different numbers of noms on characters rated in the same day though, that's a question for the staff


If I'm wrong on any of these let me know, I probably got mixed up somewhere along the line.
 

Dan Quixote

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Joined
Jun 25, 2020
Messages
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Location
Florida
I'll do a breakdown quick for you, hopefully this helps anyone else with the same question since we've had a lot of people ask lately.
0 noms - Posts with less than 2 sentences in each for a character
5 noms - Abstaining or just scrapping past the minimum for sentences.
10 noms - 10+ sentences on a character but still with at least 2 in both, so you can't type a novel for chance and have your want be just "**** no" for example.

You also can get extra noms for winning predictions and on days like today you get noms per character rated, so if you go 10+ on both Reimu and Quote today then you have 20 noms to assign. I don't know what happens if you earn different numbers of noms on characters rated in the same day though, that's a question for the staff


If I'm wrong on any of these let me know, I probably got mixed up somewhere along the line.
Thanks friend! I get it now, but maybe that could be edited into the first post on this thread where the rest of the rules are? Right now that post only explains the rule of getting extra noms if your predictions are on point.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Honestly I can't help but laugh whenever someone calls Reimu "moe" when this is basically her canonical personality.
(Note that there's a fairly major swear warning for this vid)

oh yeah and she just up and killed a guy once that happened too
View attachment 297705
Sounds like a sociopath, no wonder she doesn't get any donations.


For me, the problem is that apparently, Nicalis has outright ghosted collaborators. I'm not sure if Nintendo would be willing to risk that with a big project like Smash.
They've shown blatant interest in Smash, and, as far as we're aware, has never ghosted Nintendo. They'd definitely keep their word on this one.
 
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fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,111
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Scotland
wasnt there a very similar debate about his owners the last time we rated qoute?
 
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zriL

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 7, 2020
Messages
239
And regarding want, yeah i still don't want her close to Smash as possible. I don't want to say i hate everything weeb related, but Touhou rubs me the wrong way (i guess the likes of Azur Lane and similar works have just make repell anything that is filled to the brim with "moe" anime girl casts, i know it's reductive as hell but you can see it in a similar way to how some people just hate modern superhero movies due to how over saturated they are)
You have no idea how much anti-moe Touhou is at its core. I'm pretty sure that if you only look at the characters' behavior, you wouldn't even think they are girls. The character designs look moe though, but it would be like stopping at Bayonetta's sexy design or South Park silly graphics. I personnally like Touhou for the music but I wouldn't have been so much attracted to it if Touhou was "standard moe" stuff. There is a lot of Touhou moe fan content because the Doujin community makes moe out of anything, that's why some of them switched to Kancolle/Azurlane so easily.
 
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Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
Sounds like a sociopath, no wonder she doesn't get any donations.
Well, that's what she shows in the games, anyway.

Basically, Reimu appears to show a different personality in each work, and that, according to ZUN, is intentional: There's never been a Touhou work written from Reimu's point of view, so the way Reimu is seen in each given work is coloured by how the main characters of that particular work see her.

If anything, Wild and Horned Hermit does a good job of explaining why Reimu doesn't get any donations in Chapter 43- she's just too damn lazy.
 
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