Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Crap-Zapper]

Here he is~ Got this screenshot from the Tingle thread.

Spoiler

Thanks! Appreciated.
Either Alfonzo takes over, or there is no chance.

I'd give Tingle a chance of 5% after the proof of this.

 

[Gamer-YTP]

Tingle

Chance: 5%
He's already on a stage, but maybe they'd put in his Wind Waker form. Either way, I don't see much they can do with him, and I think he would work better as an Assist Trophy.

Want: 5%
I want Ghirahim and/or Midna before I want Tingle.

Prediction:
Smash Run: 85%

Nominations:
Sub-Zero x3
Gengar x2

 

[ProfPeanut]

Tingle

Chance: 5%
It surprises me a little how Tingle's been phased out of the spotlight, given Japan's apparent adoration for the guy. I mean, it's on Nintendo for neglecting the guy, but it doesn't seem like his love/hatedoms have subsided even up to now.

While he seems to already have a job filled out in Ultimate, it's a lot less involved than Ridley's boss inclusion in Pyrosphere, so it's not impossible that they just leave it to someone else. But you could do a lot better for the fourth Zelda representative, especially one who hasn't shown up for three mainline games straight.

Want: 1%
You people are lucky that he's a side character at best. If he was actually involved in any main game's plot, he'd be on the same platform as the likes of Geno and Skull Kid, Japan edition.


Predictions
Smash Run: 45%

Nominations
Ninten x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Tingle chances: 0.03%
I hesitated giving him a flat zero because he at least comes pretty close. While it's true that he could get the same treatment as Toon Link and King Dedede in Spirit Train and Dream Land 64 respectively, it's much less likely because in Great Bay Tingle has a gameplay impact, with his ballon being usable as a platform. It could be imagined that playable Tingle would appear with his Wind Waker toon design, similar to how the playable and stage hazard dogs are different in appearance, but the difference in appearance between these is probably more notable than betwen MM Tingle and WW Tingle.

Anyway, even without that Tingle is an unlikely character due to not being a particularly popular character. Other characters like Midna and Skull Kid are more popular and likely wouldn't be any less unique so I don't really see a reason why Tingle would be any more likely than them, especially since Midna in particular has been confirmed to be an Assist Trophy again.

Tingle want: 1%
He's a fairly famous character of the Legend of Zelda series, but that's all he has going for him as far as his merits are concerned. There are so many characters I think would make more sense than him.

Smash Run prediction: 33.83%
I really must not miss this day.

Edit a few days later: fixed a typo

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[DaUsername]

Tingle
Chance: 0.1%
People are saying he can get Alfonso'd, but I highly doubt that'll happen. Especially since you can actually interact with him in his stage.
Want: 0%
I'm American.

Smash Run prediction: 45%
Noms: Ken x5

 

[Artix]

Tingle

Chance: 0%
I really don't see him getting in Smash, honestly.

Want: 1%
As much as I like Tingle, there are much better characters that need to be in Smash.

Smash Run Prediction: 65%

Nomination:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ah, hell...I missed Slippy? I was away this weekend, that's irritating after voting for his rating!

I'll do it for funsies in a sec.

But first Tingle;

Tingle
Chance: 0.1%
All but deconfirmed with the stage presence, however Duck Hunt Dog has been both a stage interaction piece and a fighter before so it's not totally impossible, just hugely unlikely.

Want: 85%
Okay, aside from Impa and the seemingly impossible pipe dream of Vaati that even Hyrule Warriors refused to put in their roster, Tingle is easily one of the most iconic, most recognised, most reoccurring individuals in Legend of Zelda. He can basically do anything Balloon Fighter can, but more thanks to his spinoff series, and his playable roles in Wind Waker and Hyrule Warriors...speaking of...
Hyrule Warriors gave him a really fun and satisfying moveset and I'd absolutely adore the ability to carpet bomb the stage as Tingle, with the added bonus of annoying my opponent by merely using Tingle.

I don't even find Tingle that annoying honestly, but then I'm not American. I don't get America's issue with Tingle, he's a ridiculous, mostly good natured middle aged man who is a little obsessed with his hobby. Maybe I have a high tolerance for 'annoying' characters however as I find them less irritating than super badasses.

Slippy Toad
Chance: 5%
Lack of roster spots mostly. Slippy however has more going for him than people admit;
He's had his own game last generation in Starfox Guard
Said game can give him a turret based trap moveset that will allow him to rep something from Starfox that isn't a walking talking Arwing.
He's way more important than Krystal. I have no clue why people think the MECHANIC in every Starfox game to date, the guy who fixes the fricking planes, walkers, etc that the crew use to do their mission is less vital to the plot than Fox's barely active girlfriend.
Krystal being removed from Starfox doesn't affect anything, Slippy being removed affects a fair bit.
And yes, I'd put Slippy above Peppy in terms of overall importance; not only because Star Fox Guard, but because at one point Peppy actually retires from the team leaving Fox, Falco and SLIPPY as the new old guard.

Want: 85%
Slippy is easily the most exciting idea for a Starfox newcomer; turrets, traps and huge jumps(because yo; frog) excite me far more than Falco or Wolf ever could by being slight twists on Fox's tried and tested moveset. Granted there's a chance Sakurai would make Slippy a crappy Fox echo as a joke character, but the sheer amount of potential available from something in the Starfox series that a mechanic like Slippy can offer would make it seem like totally wasted potential. Not that Sakurai hasn't done that in the past, but still.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Tingle Chance - 0.25%: Tingle could've been a thing in the past, but the hype for him has died down worldwide, even in Japan. Ganon was the main option for a Zelda newcomer this time around. Regardless, the main reason this is so low is his stage hazard status, of course. While he could be removed from the stage if you play as him on it, it's barely worth even entertaining the chance.

Tingle Want - 65%: He's a pretty comical character who would make for an entertaining Zelda representative, and is one of the only recurring options available. I supported him a lot more for SSB4 back when Ganon wasn't a realistic option.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[Wiley]

Tingle chance: .5%

Tingle want: 0%

He's a funny and somewhat despicably weird presence in Zelda... I could accept him 100%, and I'm sure I'd play him now and then... but I don't want him at all. His design doesn't say anything to me about fighting potential and if they tried to force it on him, it would be a detriment to the feeling of uselessness in his character in Zelda, which is part of his appeal and comedy.

No thanks.

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Tingle Chance 3%
want 75%

I feel like tingle doesn't have the same relevance that he once had during the GCN and Ds days. I would be down with him being playable but doubt that it's going to happen

 

[PSIGuy]

Tingle Chance: 5%
I don't think he'd be considered very highly. He's sort of like Waluigi only more people actually dislike him instead of embracing his weirdness.
Tingle Want: 70%
After seeing him in his own spin-offs? Hell yeah. He's got some surprisingly good games under his belt in addition to his mainline Zelda appearances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsC2sOiTY-A&index=58&

Nominate: Xenoblade X Avatar/Cross x 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for the long day, just wanted us to get on pace for Thursday updates.

Tingle

Double 0s

Technically tingle is not deconfirmed due to the varying art style and his AT being gone. But damn is he close. He’s a stage element, he’s unpopular, and he is not as important to Zelda now as he was before brawl. He’s not in a great spot.

I do not like tingle. Most people don’t here in the states.

Day over, rate smash run, predict Lloyd Irving, calcs will be out before Thursday. Irl stuff has held me back, but I should be ok now.

 

[Sari]

Smash Run

Chance: 40%. I think there's a good chance that it'll make it though I'm not sure if it's a top priority.
Want: 60%. I thought it was pretty enjoyable and wouldn't mind seeing it again.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Smash Run

Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

I definitely think it will be coming back. It's basically a Fighting Game version of City Trial from Kirby's Air Ride which is on the Gamecube. The things on the 2nd screen of the 3DS can easily be placed in a corner. And besides from what I heard, this mode is vastly preferred to Smash Tour.

Lloyd Irving Prediction: 14.44%

Sadly It's likely Lloyd is going to be sleeped on when he's going to be rated. :/

Nominate Concept: More Than 5 Unique Newcomers x5

 

[NintenRob]

Smash Run!!!
Chance 40%
It was one of the most popular modes to ever grace Smash Bros, but I could see Sakurai giving a weird reasoning for it to return like "it wouldn't work with one Switch" or "Want to focus on new modes". Designing that many enemies with nice enough models could be challenging too
Want 100%
YES!!! This mode alone was enough to justify the 3DS version! I had so much fun with it. Definitely one of best modes ever in Smash

Nominate
Daroach x5

Prediction Lloyd 8%

 

[Deleted member]

Smash Run
Chance: 65%
Want: 100%

An updated Smash Run mode in HD and with new enemies and a possible online functionality? Yes please.


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Lloyd Irving prediction: 15.35%

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Coming back to this just to give my scores for Smash Run:

Chance: 60%
Smash Run was one of Smash for 3DS' best and biggest selling points, and in contrast to Smash Tour's lacklustre reception, is often seen as one of the best modes in Smash so far. I think given the reception to it in the last game, I think they might decide to revamp it into something even more fun for the Switch.

Want: 100%
My most wanted thing for Smash Bros Ultimate that is not a character. It was a blast, and I'd love to see what it would look like on the Switch. Smash Run's a perfect fit for either co-op TV play or Remote Play with others, or for a simple bit of fun while going from A to B. So definitely my most wanted (not character) for Ultimate.

Lloyd: 13.62%

 

[BlueMagician]

Smash Run

Chance: 50%
Modes from previous Smashes have returned, but it depends on whether Sakurai's team noticed the positive reception in time or not (plus if they have time to implement it.) They always introduce new modes, which might work against it's return.

Want: 100%
I want to see this and with some improvements, too (like more matches at the end or something)

Nom:
Viridi x 5

Predict:
Lloyd : 28.5%

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Smash Run

Chance: 75%
I'm pretty sure Smash Run would make it's return in Ultimate, seeing how it's really fun to play.

Want: 100%
It's really fun to play Smash Run in Wii U/3DS. Here's hoping it will return in Ultimate.

Lloyd Irving Prediction: 25%

Nomination:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[Deleted member]

Smash Run
Chance: Abstain
Want: 95%
I love this mode. It's one of the reasons why I prefer the 3DS version of Sm4sh over the Wii U version.
It just feels so natural yet so fun to go through an area filled with enemies from multiple games and beat the **** out of them. The challenges at the end were also pretty fun.
That said, I'd prefer an Adventure Mode with Metroidvania elements, which would basically just be Smash Run with a bigger map, no time limits and no City Trial elements... and I can't see both of them happening at once, unfortunately.
Still, would be nice to get Smash Run back, it's a good single player mode.... Though they should also add online multiplayer.

Incineroar x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Smash run
Chance: ABSTAIN
Want: 85%
It was pretty fun, but I'll only take it if they improved it more. Online play, interacting with other players, multiple/longer end games, etc. Otherwise I just prefer to see story mode again.

Lloyd: 10.46%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Smash Run

Chance: ABSTAIN

Want: 100%

Not sure if this will happen, but it's easily the mode I most want to see make a return. I really loved Smash Run so an updated version would be very nice.

Lloyd prediction: 10.13%

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Smash Run
chance
was a fun mode in Smash 4 and with this game having some things taken from wiiu and 3ds I think we will see this back. It will need a few updates which if they want to just get rid of it is the only issue I can see
80%

want
extra game modes yeah no reason not to want it back
100%

nominating labo man x5

predicting Lolyd at 2%

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The Only Redeeming Quality of Sm4sh

Chance: 33%
Want: 85%

Go figure - the most interesting single-player mode in Sm4sh was designed as a multiplayer mode...

Smash Run was actually loads of fun. I wasn’t too much a fan of the powerups that you had to activate, but I liked the stat increase idea. Smash Run really felt like a bit of an adventure mode, which gave the 3ds version something cool. Pity it didn’t exist on the WiiU.

I would have liked more of a mix of enemies rather than just Kid Icarus Uprising: Smash. Also some of the final battles were annoying in the sense that my “most KOs” stat didn’t go to the time I had a great run with a max power Ganondorf, but to the one tome I picked a character I didn’t care about and drew a 300% Smash.

I originally wasn’t planning on getting the 3DS version, but then they announced Mewtwo. And then I found myself playing much more of the 3DS because Smash Run was fun and interesting and Smash Tour was...not. A new SSE is never going to happen with all of the characters, so a Smash Run mode does give a single-player experience which is fun enough and randomized enough to keep replayability.

I just would like if it didn't depend on the Powers. It seemed like some Challenge Doors couldn't be completed without them, and I liked to play default characters.

Prediction for Lloyd: 12.3%
Nom: Fountain of Dreams x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Smash Run
Chance: 50%
It's a popular mode that many would like to see back. It really boils down to if Sakurai wants to bring it back. It might take a lot more work than people think since all the enemies do have to be upgraded from the 3DS.

Want: 50%
If it's back, I'll play it from time to time. It's fun, but it would need full multiplayer support (both local and online) to justify taking time and resources away from adding characters/stages to me. Personally, I prefer Smash Tour anyway.

 

[Gamer-YTP]

Smash Run

Chance: 85%
I see it returning, but I can see Sakurai possibly replacing it with something better.

Want: 95%
I really liked the mode. Plus it made it easier to get custom parts and stuff (assuming that's coming back but I doubt it).

Prediction:
Lloyd: 40%

Nominations:
Sub-Zero x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Smash Run

Chance: 50% - Honestly could go either way. Was more popular than Smash Tour, I believe, so it could very well come back.

Want: 75% - Would be nice to see if they improved on it.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Smash Run
Chance: 25%
The only major mode we've seen return before is Smash 64's single player (aka Classic mode). Smash Run is a good fit to return and I would say it's more likely than something like SSE was, but I still can't expect it.

Want: 75%
Not my favorite mode ever, but it's fun. With some improvements I think it would make a great staple.

Nominate Style Savvy character x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Smash Run
Can’t say how likely it is to return, but want is 80%
A very fun mode to play, and would love for it to come back, but if I had to pick between getting SSE back or this, it’s SSE all the way.

Nominations Ayumi TachibanaX5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Smash Run chances: 36%
It's without a doubt the more popular single game version exclusive party game feature compared to Smash Tour, due to the fact you interact with many creatures from many different universes in something that plays like Smash rather than being a huge mess. Due to that, and considering it had to be cut in features to fit on the 3DS' power, it's possible that Sakurai may want to expand on it and reintroduce an enhanced version in Smash Ultimate. It's also possible that he might instead want to introduce something more like Melee's adventure mode where you can explore different Nintendo universes. It's however important to note that Smash Run was probably made possible thanks to a lot of assets being reused from Ki Icarus: Uprising which would easily be ported over, and I'm not sure if there are models that could easily be ported over like that, as I doubt KI:U models were made with future upscaling in mind like Pokémon models in main series games.

Although it probably doesn't mean much, it's interesting to see there's a remix of City Trial, the mode from Kirby Air Ride from which Smash Run is inspired.

Smash Run want: 90%
I spent a lot of time in Smash Run on 3DS because it's a really fun and clever game mode. The main appeal is of course to fight many creatures from many Nintendo universes, but there probably are other ways to satisfy this appeal, so I won't be disappointed if something else with this appeal makes it over Smash Run.

Here are my suggestions to improve Smash Run:
- make random events more fair. I really was angry when I once defeated a Clubberskull then got randomly teleported before I got the chance to pick up its stat boosts
- have more than one map;
- allow different players to interact in the same map like how Sakurai originally envisioned it;
- allow players to capture enemies with trophy stands like in Brawl's Subspace Emissary.

Lloyd prediction: 14.26%

Nominating:
New item: Beast Ball x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Smash Run
Chance - 40%
I could see it returning with all the bells and whistles Sakurai had planned from the get go, but I could also see it scrapped as Smash 4's thing and we'd get something new. I'm leaning towards us getting something new, but I could see it being brought back with how well liked it was.
Want - 99%
I liked it quite a bit. I think it needs to support online multiplayer to be truly worth it for me, so I'm hoping if it did return... that would be included. And as others have said, it'd be cool to have all the players on the map together to provide more strategy and danger.

Nominations - 5x Incineroar

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Smash Run
Chance: 50% - It's possible to see it back, but it could've been the Smash 4 thing.
Want: 100% - Loved this mode! Definitely was fun.

Prediction: Lloyd
Chance: 17.21%
Want: 38.92%

Nominations
Frank West x5

 

[Mrs.Milky]

Smash run

Chance: 80-90% its like one of the best modes for me and I believe its popular enough as well
Want: 99% run was my favorite mode from smash run lol, it would be nice for multiplayer too

also what is zero from megamans chances of being in smash?

 

[Erimir]

Smash Run
There were those leaked screenshots which we don't know for sure was legit or not (link). Some aspects don't match what we see today, but it did look like higher resolution Smash Run and so at least some work went into it making it not look like a 3DS screenshot if it's not legit. We know that SSBU wasn't built from the ground up, and is instead built on a base from SSB4, and since it was a while ago, those discrepancies could be ported Smash 4 assets that were being used as placeholders and have since been replaced (the character icons and such, for example).

So there is still a pretty good chance those leaked screenshots were legit. A build from spring 2017 or earlier could very well look a bit different from the E3 2018 build. That said, there is also definitely a chance someone went through the effort of making higher-definition shots of Smash Run locations, the Paper Mario stage and Yoshi's Break the Targets stage from Melee. If so, they did a pretty good job, though. Would've been time consuming.

Smash Run chances: 50%
I guess it was pretty popular, and it might be a popular online mode if they keep it for SSBU. I'm not convinced that leak is legit, so while it improves the chances, it's not a guarantee by any means.
Smash Run want: 50%
It was alright. On the one hand, it's more fun than some other modes. Definitely better than Smash Tour, the Angry Birds mode or Coin Launcher.

On the other hand, if you have to do it with every character to unlock stuff, it's going to be more than a bit of a grind to have to do it 68+ times. For a completionist like myself, the time commitment for the single player modes has to take that into account. Smash Run takes 5 min for the main portion, 1 min for the final battle, and some additional menu/loading/results time, etc. so about 7 minutes per character. That's a lot longer than other modes per try. Smash Run isn't fun enough for me to want to have to spend a minimum of over 8 hours on (~7 min x 68+ characters), assuming I complete it satisfactorily on the first try with every character. I prefer less grinding tasks for unlocks.

On the third hand, this is more of an issue with how they design rewards than Smash Run per se. Hopefully Sakurai has realized that having rewards for "doing X with every character" should try to avoid being too difficult or time consuming. That is "play Smash Run with every character" is better than "finish first in Smash Run with every character", but since Smash Run is already relatively time consuming, even that is going to take a long while (8+ hours! Although at least on Switch you could potentially cut the time by 3/4 by having four human players?).

As a tangent, I find Break the Targets to be a pretty fun mode, since it has more puzzle-like aspects and basically no luck-based aspects. If that leak was legit, I'll be happy to get that mode back (with character-specific layouts again!). I'd also be cool with Board the Platforms and Race to the Finish coming back.

Nominations: Break the Targets returns x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Smash Run

Chance - 27.5% - Among many modes, this is the highlight of Smash For 3DS. While it would be easy to port over the contents and add some new stuff, modes are rarely carried over and this may prove to be no exception. I can't tell if it will return, although it has a higher chance than many others.

Want - 70% - I never got the 3DS version, so I'm not too enthused, but I think it was a good idea that could be expanded upon. Seeing an City Trial mode successor done right would be amazing.

Prediciton

Lloyd Irving - 13.23% - I don't see it...


Nominiations

Nihilego X5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Smash Run

Chance - 40%

This was the only thing anyone liked about Smash 4's absolute garbage single player, and it was inspired by Kirby Air Ride, which Sakurai loves to death. I can see it returning pretty easily, but perhaps not, due to being something Smash 4, and the 3DS version in particular, giving it something unique.

Want - 30%

In the case that it gets an extreme makeover, I'd love to see it. If you could:

• Play online
• Have 8-player matches
• Shrink the map down a bit
• Interact with other players on the map
• Removal of any final battles that are heavily luck / item based
• Make final battles not a one and done sort of deal, but rather a set of three or so, and whoever wins those wins it all

Then I'd be more than happy with it returning. However, unless we're getting a whole ton of QoL changes, I'd much rather see time put into other modes, like a new, Melee-esqe Adventure mode or Break the Targets stages.

Basically, just fix Smash 4's absolute garbage single player first.

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Smash Run
Chance: 60%
It's probably coming back since it would be a relatively easy mode to bring back and Sakurai was pretty dedicated to it.

Want: 50%
It was an ok mode, and it was fun to see enemies from other games in there. I wouldn't be upset either way though.

Nominations: Neku x 5

 

[Opossum]

Smash Run Want: 100%

Reinhardt trophy x5

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Smash Run
Chance: 60%
It'll probably be back. It was really fun on 3ds.

Want: 100%
this time make it even better

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[Misery Brick]

Smash Run:
Chance: 46%
Smash Run was the defining mode for the 3DS version of Smash 4, and was conceived as a quick mode to fit the nature of the handheld itself as seen through it's massive map, random events, and race based off of City Trial. Now for the Switch, since it is seen as a hybrid of sorts, there is a chance that Smash Run will return on the system with some fixes and variations, and also that it was one of the only celebrated modes that were in Smash 4 altogether. (More-so than it's sister mode, Smash Tour.) Sakurai may see the reaction to this and port it over with added content.
However, many modes don't return after each iteration of Smash and there is a high chance that this one may be left behind with the 3DS. As the only reoccurring single player modes are Classic, All-Star, Event Match, Break the Targets, and Home Run Contest. Also, a large aspect of Smash Run was retooled assets from Kid Icarus: Uprising, and that may hinder it's return as it could be costly to render tons of new models in HD. That's why I think it has a chance, but not as high as I'd like.

Want: 85%
It's one of the key reasons why I play Smash 3DS more than the Wii U version, and I always find myself coming back to it often. I would love to see it back, but the reason for my lower score is only with being able to see and fight other players on the map, editing and choosing the final match and length of the trials, and seeing more bosses and a wide variety of enemies from different new and returning series. (like there is not a single Pokemon or Mega Man boss character, how the hell)
However, if it doesn't come back at all/or as it did, I'd prefer if Sakurai pulled from another one of his games: Kirby Super Star.
He could add/convert it into a Great Cave Offensive like mode, which uses "metroidvania" elements to unlock characters by fighting them in themed arenas/levels, get trophies, take on bosses from across multiple series, etc.
It'd be a nice compromise for those who would want things from both SSE and Smash Run. (since we're likely to never get the former back)
But like I said, I'd be ecstatic for it if it came back with some revisions and additions. (as long as all the obtainable items aren't worthless equipment)

Nominations:
Ayumi Tachibana x5