Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Gerrothorax]

Porky and Masked Man
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Just because K. Rool and Ridley got in doesn't mean every Nintendo villain under the sun will get in. Mother is already a niche series with more than enough content in Smash. It doesn't warrant another character especially one that would be unique.
Noms X5 Disconfirmed characters as DLC

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from both characters.
Ken prediction: 90%
Black Shadow prediction: 10%
Noms: Nathan Drake x5

I'm not too familiar with the Metroid series

But they're EarthBound/Mother characters.

 

[Erureido]

But they're EarthBound/Mother characters.

Whoops, looks like my mind was playing tricks on me.

Yeah, I meant Earthbound on that part.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Porky
Chance: 1% - The Mother franchise has been retired for 12 years now and support for Porky seems to only exist among the most loyal fans of the series. It also doesn’t help that we’re likely getting a lot less unique newcomers this time around. I feel that he’s far more likely to return as a Boss.

Want: 10% - To quote a different Porky:
Th-th-the, th-th-the, th-th-that’s all, folks.

Masked Man
Chance: 1% - He has all the same problems that Porky has.
Want: 0%

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[evildevil97]

Porky is one of the only characters left I truly want. I just don't see it happening.

 

[a smart guy]

Porky:
Chance: 1% Yes, there is more of a focus of villains this game. However, that's a symptom of the overlying focus on fan favorites. Ridley and K Rool were two of the most popular characters, and they both happened to be villains. With Porky not being that popular, I just can't see it.
Want: 0% He's not an all-star. Mother 3 was never localized, and he wasn't the main antagonist of Earthbound. That being said, I'd be happy to have him as a boss in the Single Player mode.

Masked Man:
Chance: 1% Who the heck is this guy? Don't answer that, it was a joke. He uses a beam sword and metal wings, so I don't think he works as an echo of Lucas either. I understand why people want him as an echo, but I don't see it happening.
Want: 1% At least it's less time than a full character, but I think Mother is good at 2 reps.

Nominations:
No More Stages x5

I wish we rated this before the Direct. For all we know, a new character and stage could easily come tomorrow.

 

[PK_Wonder]

2% to Porky
1% to Masked Man

These Mother characters have non-zero chances, but realistically the easiest new character to rep the series is Ninten (since he's good Echo fodder... or even alt a la Alph fodder). I truly hope EarthBound/Mother has a future, even if it's just a trilogy or Western Mother 3 release, but it's been particularly inactive for an entire decade beyond Smash itself, which never bodes well for any series without overwhelming fan support for a newcomer. and while Lucas had that as a veteran prior to Smash 4, no other Mother rep has ever had much demand in the face of the competition. I give a slightly higher chance to Porky because he's a villain, has had a boss in Smash before, and is seemingly more popular among fans and Sakurai himself.

Nominate: Amaterasu x3, Black Mage x2

 

[warpenguin55]

Porky
Chance: 0%
"Too big for smash" sounds like a meme, but I think Porky actually is way too big. Can you actually shrink him down and make him work? Never play Mother, so I have no idea.
Want: 30%
I think he would be cool, but I'd rather see a lot of others before him.

Masked Man: Abstain
I know nothing about him.

Nominations:
Silvally x3
Zeraora x2

 

[NintenRob]

Nominations:
No More Stages x5

I wish we rated this before the Direct. For all we know, a new character and stage could easily come tomorrow

Well it will still be a valid nomination, just not a very interesting one. For all we know, if a stage is shown in the direct, THAT could be the last stage.

But I would not be surprised if there are no new stages shown

 

[Lupin Red]

Abstaining on both Porky and Masked Man. I really don't know much about them and I don't care.

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining today, gonna do 9/6 direct predictions and reactions, update will be on Friday and we will have the satisfaction for new stuff, I have a gut hunch something on the schedule will be shown off, if anyone needs me I’ll be in the angry dome.

 

[NintenRob]

Come on SKULL KID!!!!!

please

 

[Sari]

Direct Predictions:

Smash stuff:

• 1 echo and 1 unique newcomer will be revealed.
  • Echo: Isabelle or Dixie, most likely Isabelle (I'm fine with either one but I really hope it's Isabelle).
  • Newcomer: Skull Kid or Geno, most likely Skull Kid (really hoping it's Skull Kid).
• Smash-themed Direct announced at the very end (end of September or start of October).

Non-Smash stuff:

• Fire Emblem Three Houses details.
• Pokemon Switch details.
• Animal Crossing Switch reveal.
• A game gets ported or remade for the 3DS.
• Mario Maker gets ported to the Switch.
• Popular game on the XOne/PS4 gets confirmed for the Switch.

EDIT: If nominations are still going for today then I'll use my 5 for Terry Bogard.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Porky/Masked Man pre-9/6 Direct

Ninten x343
Terry Bogard x332
Jin Kazama x330
Django (Boktai) x295
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x295
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x290
Rowlet x270

Over 200

Gardevoir x260
Concept: Hanafuda Character x257
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x230
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Nathan Drake x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x212

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Amaterasu x183
Papyrus x180
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x175
No More Stages x173
Louie x160
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Rick/Coo/Kine x154

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x136
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x135
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x130
Item: Beast Ball x127
2B x126
Barbara the Bat x122
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x112
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Zeraora (Pokemon) x103
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Edelgard x100
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Dovahkiin x95
Reimu Hakurei x95
Gooey x94
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Guzma (Pokémon) x90
Veronica x73
Yu Narakumi x71
Frank West x70
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Chorus Kids x61
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Black Knight as a boss character x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Silvally x51

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Adeleine x34
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x30
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25

Under 25

Master Chief x20
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x10
Leo (Fire Emblem) x10
Big Boss x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Concept: DLC character pass x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1

Rick, Coo and Kine cross 150 nominations.

Black Knight as a boss character and Silvally pass 50 nominations.

Our day’s new nominees are Captain Syrup, concepts for the return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls and for free DLC characters (5 noms each), and Black Mage with 2 noms.

 

[Cetus]

Direct Predictions! Whoo Let's Go!

Games-
Not Pikmin 4

Predictions-
Incineroar (cross my heart hope to die)
Isabelle
Isaac
Little Mac dies in a trailer
Something about Spirits Mode
Paid Online, oh boy!

 

[VexTheHex]

Predictions-
Nothing Smash at all!!!

If we do get something, I'll vote Pokemon Rep? I feel a new series or big 3rd party would be saved for later.

Echoes - Dixie or/and Shadow if Gen 7. But if the Pokemon rep is Gardevoir as one leak suggested way back when, Gothitelle may show as well.

Games-
Not Pikmin 4

It's depressing cause it's true.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Pokemon Lets go details
Yoshi details
Fire Emblem TH details
Mario Party details
Nintendo Switch online details
Wii U port
Star Allies dream friends wave 3
Pikmin 4
Mario Maker port
Bandana Dee/New Pokemon in Smash

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I can't say I'm expecting much for this direct. I know a lot of people are tired of seeing Smash take over Nintendo's directs. Then again, it deserves to.

So...

Predict:

• one Newcomer reveal, maybe one unique and one echo. These will be characters who are well known to the general public like Skull Kid, Isabelle, or a Pokémon.
• A bit more Pokémon Let's Go information, which will reveal a really cool new feature and immediately follow that up with some annoying new hand-holding feature designed for pants-on-head level noobs.
• The 3DS keeps getting new content and everyone is shocked that it's not dead yet despite being 7 years old.
• Switch ports of popular games which fizzled on the WiiU like Mario Maker or Wonderful 101.
• More minigames revealed for Super Mario Party.
• K. Rool gets added to a Mario spinoff to capitalize on his newly discovered popularity.
• More third party AAA ports to Switch
• Information shown for the Virtual Console online, including an XBOX-esque 'games with gold' mode.
• Teasers for Metroid Prime 4 and a legit title for Yoshi's Flipping Island.

I really don't think that this direct will have enough information to sate us too long. Hopefully they do start giving us drops more frequently though.

Good luck everyone, hope this turns out well for you!
*praying as hard as possible for Dovahkiin and Tails*

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Nintendo Direct predictions:
Definitely a Smash newcomer reveal, and maybe an echo if they feel like they want to introduce one. My hunches are on Isaac, Skull Kid or a Pokémon newcomer, be it Decidueye or Incineroar. I think Skull Kid or a Pokémon character would be revealed in a general direct because their series have large audience appeals, so they could use it to hype up more casual audiences. But Isaac is my personal hope alongside Skull Kid.
Hopefully we see something of Bayonetta 3.
Maybe some more footage on Yoshi's Flippin' Island
Update on big Splatoon 2 update
Maybe a bit more of a clarification on Fire Emblem Three Houses and what we might expect there.
More details on Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee to try and win some interest again.
Maybe some sort of incentive to try and get people to try Nintendo Switch Online, like a demo of Smash Ultimate from E3 with just the possible newcomer in the direct alongside it.
Maybe some ports like The Wonderful 101
Maybe something related to Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's future and where it'll be heading.

 

[BlueMagician]

Forgot to rate the last, would given low chances anyway.

Predictions for next Direct:

• Every game they show off will be at the Tokyo Game Show
• Pokemon Let's Go gets shown off a lot
• Fire Emblem Three Houses character footage
• Splatoon 2's update
• Layton game
• Some 3DS game that looks interesting shows up
• Online Service detals
• Switch's version of the 'Virtual Console" shows up
• Some indie games for Switch and 3DS
• Some SNK game
• Yo-kai Watch stuff
• Dragon Quest switch info
• Smash will be at the end

Smash predictions for next direct:

• Only a small bit of info
• Sakurai talks about online modes
• A new Assist Trophy is shown off in the process
• One character trailer at the very end
• No info about the new mode

 

[SoupCanMafia]

Here are my predictions, based on IF there's a Smash Section Direct even getting to the size of 8/8. Now, this is my biased opinion because I cannot betray my Half-Genie Hero, but I wish good luck for everyone else coming in!

1. There is a good chance that, if we get two newcomers, for the beginning and in the end like in the 8/8/16 Direct, the first reveal would be Shantae. I would imagine two different Scenarios for this event to happen: She either fights King K. Rool after he defeats Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong, or she stops Wario from getting her magic lamp. Regardless of way, this would lead to my first Echo prediction down below. The second one, which would likely be the Hype Machine for September, would be Isaac from Golden Sun, likely fighting off against Rathalos after Link/Marth/whoever fails to defeat the menacing creature. I am aware that the former is controversial as of late, though I'm just dreaming that this would happen. A lot of circumstantial evidence pointing towards her is quite conspiracy-filled, yet not overtly ridiculous. For the latter, however, my reasoning is that Banjo and Kazooie and Geno, while very popular characters, should be the headline for the final Smash Directs, because that'll be when the hype will be at its maximum. And Isaac is one of those perfect transistors that could lead up to the final Direct. Though in all honesty, it could be between Geno and Isaac, though I feel both will make it in, no problem.
2. Now, the Echo Fighters. As to whom I'd like to see in this area, the Number One for me right now is Dixie Kong, who could be teased at the end of Shantae's reveal trailer. The next one would very likely be Shadow, though in a sort of similar way to how Chrom/Dark Samus was revealed. My reasoning for both of them are quite simple: they're both some of the most popular fighters and both of them can mesh in well with their assigned fighters, with Dixie Kong having more mobility due to her hair, while Shadow is slightly more powerful, but very slightly slower. In that while Shadow is one of the fastest characters, he's only barely slower than Sonic. Isabelle of Animal Crossing can very easily replace one the two, though.
3. Stages? Music? I actually don't think there'd be newer stages added in. And, again with my bias, it could be possible for Shantae to have her own stage, simply called "Scuttle Town", where it'd be similar to Sonic's Green Hill Zone, though it could be similar to Pac-Land. Realistically, however, I would want to see a SMRPG stage based off the Forest Maze. Of course, with the former, there could be a lot that Jake Kaufman could make tailor-made for Ultimate, while with Forest Maze, there could be a blend of the Forest Maze music with a remixed version of either the Miniboss music or the Boss music.
4. Assist Trophies? Eh... again, biased me says Rottytops, but the realistic side of me says no assists this time.

That's all I got. I am asking for too much, and I am a bit too biased for my own good, but here are my predictions. However, I hope you guys get your wishes!

Edit: Oh, fiddlesticks, I forgot one more critical portion! The boss fight! I fully believe that the Skull Kid from Majora's Mask will be a boss character, sort of a foil for Young Link. I could imagine Skull Kid using Majora's Mask to magically attack the player, whether it'd be inversing controls, turning characters invisible, or doing something more damaging like summoning the Moon or just flat-out shooting orbs of electricity. After this, it would transition from Skull Kid to the Mask itself, which could be a fast, agile boss that's hard to hit, but it isn't too hard to force it into Majora's Incarnation. Being faster still, yet still sort of weaker in both health and magical power, after beating it, it becomes Majora's Wrath. Being more tank-like and hitting hard, it uses its tendrils to whip a character down, possibly including some more latent magic being used.

 

[NintenRob]

Direct delayed due to Earthquake.

 

[Cetus]

https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/1037596347979812864?s=19

Unfortunately, the Direct is delayed due to a 6.7 earthquake. Hope people are alright. Sounds pretty devastating.

 

[Erimir]

I think we will get a unique newcomer and one or two Echoes.

I don't have highly specific predictions, other than the ratings I've been giving... which would imply that Isabelle is the most likely reveal, followed by Shadow. A Pokemon would be fairly likely as well, I suppose.

 

[Robertman2]

If we get one, it's probably gonna be Incineroar. Maybe Shadow.
Skull Kid ain't happening

 

[Kotor]

TCT~Phantom The Direct was delayed to an unspecified date because of an earthquake that hit Japan.

 

[skylanders fan]

Hope everone is doing ok in Japan. Still gonna give my predicitions even though its deylayed.
I think we will get 1 newcoming in Incenoroar and 2 echo's in Shadow and Funky Kong with details on a online mode in Ultimate

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Hope there’s not to many deaths from this one

But for predictions whenever the Nintendo direct is

Atleast 1 unique and echo

And probably skull kid and shadow

 

[Jomosensual]

I assume the predictions for today will carry over to whenever the direct is postponed to? Going to make mine now anyways

New fighters: Issac and Incineroar
Echos: shadow
Modes: stadium mode gets shown off, highlighting Multiman smash, Target smash, all star mode, etc. We also get a small clue about what the blurred out mode is but nothing major until next month. Also some online stuff gets shown as well

 

[TCT~Phantom]

And the direct is delayed.

First off, I hope as many people as possible are ok. This is a sad day.

Secondly, since I do not want to shift the day right now, we will still do predictions now.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Best wishes to the hundreds of thousands in Japan who will be impacted by this event. Nintendo did the respectful thing by delaying.

If anyone would like a summary of what happened, this article is pretty detailed:

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-japan-earthquake-20180906-story.html

-----------------------------------------------------------
As far as RTC and the Direct goes, I imagine we can resume the schedule for now once we get word from TCT~Phantom ? It will probably be four extra days at minimum until the Direct actually debuts, and we will get an advance warning so we can actually have the predictions day.

Edit: He said something right as I did.

 

[AngrySun88]

You can't blame Nintendo for delaying the Direct considering the scale of the disaster and that it hit so close to home for them. We can only hope for a speedy recovery and for a small as possible death toll (nine deaths have already been confirmed).

Unfortunately, it also means that since there were likely some time sensitive information that was set to release today, I have this sinking feeling that some unscrupulous people will leak that information that was meant to be announced today.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Nevermind, looks like we wont even get a direct today afterall.

 

[ShinyRegice]

I was prepared to watch this Direct but then it was announced that it was delayed because of the earthquake. I sincerely hope things are okay for as many people as possible, broadcasting a direct in this context probably isn't a great idea.

At a personal level, the hour during which this direct was supposed to happen wasn't the best for me, but at least it gave me the opportunity of watching the Direct live. I hope for the delay the hour will still be compatible with live watching for me. I suppose at Nintendo they're waiting the emotion from the earthquake to cool down before choosing another date, so it may be either at the start or the end of the upcoming week, possibly a bit later.

That said you can know that I'm no longer going to abstain because of crappy internet connection, because I found a way to bypass it: just go close to the friggin' WiFi source... I was just too lazy to leave my private room and go in a public room to get better connection. And for my computer, I think I'll be able to get it back sometime next week, which also means if I can watch the Direct live I'll be able to do so on a bigger screen, even during the hours during which I'm not able to access to public desktops (which was exactly the case for this initially planned broadcasting).

And since we're still predicting the Direct, I'll just say that my predictions when it comes to Smash are one newcomer, maybe two, and two echoes (for some reason I have a feeling they're going to be third-party echoes - aka Shadow and Ken) and possibly a little more things, but I don't expect it to be dedicated to Smash to the same extent as the E3 Direct. Outside of Smash I don't have particular expectations except that I do NOT expect Metroid Prime 4 to be shown, it will be the main attraction of Nintendo's E3 2019 instead. Also at least one of the new Switch games shown will be a Wii U port.

That's all I have to say. Except that it's going to be funny (in a sad way) if a character set to be rerated the next few days is revealed in the Direct when it is released for real.

Edit more than two months later: fixed a typo.

 

[Whit]

My heart goes out to everyone affected in Japan. I hope for a swift and safe recovery.

That being said, I think that Skull Kid and an echo are what we can expect from the direct. Just my own beliefs.

 

[warpenguin55]

Predictions for upcoming direct:
Characters Revealed: A 2 Pokemon Reps, Incineroar and Zeraora (Lucario Echo), and Shadow(Sonic Echo). Depending on what the Pokemon from Let's Go is, it might be in smash in place of Incineroar, but I doubt it.

Stages: A stage based on Ultra Space from USUM. The stage travels between pockets of Ultra space, changing the terrain and which Ultra Beasts are seen in the background.

Yeah this is more of a wish list post than my actual predictions, but fk it

 

[Nemuresu]

Concept: DLC character pass x5

Uuhh, GoodGrief741 I think you ignored my second nomination for this concept right here:

Nomination: DLC character pass/Season pass x5

With that out of the way, I first want to show my condolences to people in Japan for the recent earthquake. as someone who was already gone through one of those not too long ago. And second, I'll leave my predictions:
*Details on Nintendo's online service.
*Some more highlights on games that are already on the way like Dragon Ball FighterZ and TWEWY.
*At least one or two third-party games announced.
*Some more 3DS games.
*One character trailer for Ultimate at the end of the Direct.

 

[aarchak]

First, my thoughts and prayers go out to the people afftected by the earthquake, especially those who lost loved ones.
With that said, here we go.

Nintendo Direct

Pokemon
New trailer on Let's Go, possibly a spin-off game announcement.

Xenoblade
New trailer on Torna: The Golden Country, slight chance of new project announcement or new DLC Blade reveal.

Metroid
Maybe an actual trailer on Metroid Prime 4, but I doubt it. The teaser only said it was in development; we might not even get it next year.

Fire Emblem
New Three Houses trailer. Nothing else for this direct.

Dragalia Lost
Remember this game? It just had a direct about how it works and it will probably be showcased somewhere in the direct.

Daemon Ex Machina
Now remember this game? It was the first game shown off at the E3 Direct. It will probably have a trailer sometime in the direct.

3DS Games
There will probably be a small showcase of 3DS games (because it won't die) during the direct.

New Games
Possibly Animal Crossing, but other than that I'm guessing a new Mario spin-off, a new Kirby game, and possibly a few other series like Phoenix Wright, something from SNK or Square Enix.

Indies
I doubt there will be more than a small showcase of certain games, considering they already had a Nindies direct a bit ago.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
I expect nothing more than a character reveal; remember that this is a general direct and so it will have to share the time with all the other things on the direct.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Uuhh, GoodGrief741 I think you ignored my second nomination for this concept right here:


With that out of the way, I first want to show my condolences to people in Japan for the recent earthquake. as someone who was already gone through one of those not too long ago. And second, I'll leave my predictions:
*Details on Nintendo's online service.
*Some more highlights on games that are already on the way like Dragon Ball FighterZ and TWEWY.
*At least one or two third-party games announced.
*Some more 3DS games.
*One character trailer for Ultimate at the end of the Direct.

Yeah, there is a rule that states that scores and nominations will only be counted if at least 2 sentences of reasoning are given per character. You rated two characters and only gave one sentence, so your nominations were invalid. Sorry!

 

[BluePikmin11]

And the direct is delayed.

First off, I hope as many people as possible are ok. This is a sad day.

Secondly, since I do not want to shift the day right now, we will still do predictions now.

So will it be a week until we transition to a new rating day? (If the direct is moved next Thursday?)