Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Lloyd

Chance: 30%

The Heihachi and Gil costumes being in separate Mii showcases have me casting doubt that we will see a playable Namco character of any kind, but if we were to have one then it would definitely be from the Tales series. Lloyd is one of the most iconic protagonists of the series and the most familiar to Nintendo fans. Sakurai even said in an interview one time that Lloyd pretty much had to be the Tales rep. However, he faces one big competitor in a Mr. Yuri Lowell who is the most popular Tales protagonist ever who keeps dominating popularity polls to the point that Namco bans him from being in future polls. While Sakurai may have a preference for Lloyd, he considers what the producers want such as Yabuki from the ARMS team wanting Min Min in the game, so if Namco wants Yuri Lowell because he is their most popular Tales protagonist then we will get Yuri Lowell as the Tales rep. But really it can be either or between those two.

Want: 25%

I do want Tales representation, but I rather it be from more interesting protagonists such as Yuri, Velvet or even Luke. Still Lloyd's dual-wielding would be quite unique and if he does a tag team mechanic with Colette then I would find that pretty hype.

Arle Nadja

Chance: 80%

As someone said one time before, she is basically a Terry pick with Dragon Quest flavoring. Puyo Puyo is a very popular culturally significant franchise in Japan to the point that it is a heavy merch seller, and it was considered for having a theme park built one time! While Puyo Puyo hasn't seen much western recognition for a majority of its run, that has been changing in recent years thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris in 2017 and SEGA has been pushing the franchise hard lately in the west, PPT2 even released in the west two days prior to the Japanese release! She does face some decent competition from Dr. Eggman who is one of the most iconic villains ever, but I am sure SEGA would prefer a new franchise being represented since they push a lot more than just Sonic such as Yakuza, Sakura Wars, Streets of Rage, etc and Nintendo would have no problems picking her with how much spotlight Puyo Puyo receives in partner directs. Arle is my YOLO pick for this pass.

Want: 90%

The puzzle genre deserves to have more representation than just Dr. Mario, and besides that Arle would be a heavy spellcaster which we need more magical girls in Smash, not to mention that she will have Puyos somewhere in her moveset so sign me up!

abstain on ManRay

Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Blankiturayman]

Arle

Chance: 30%
When it comes to SEGA I feel she's up there. Puyo Puyo definitely has the legacy to it, being a classic puzzle series even if it originally didn't start as much. While in its infancy as a puzzle series it got reskinned (Kirby's Avalanche and Mean Bean Machine) those days are long gone, for a while the series has been establishing itself on consoles worldwide, lasting even to today with a game releasing this very year on Switch. It's very likely Nintendo knows about its popularity as well since they promote new releases themselves, and, while this is a smaller thing, on SNES NSO they have Puyo Puyo 2, completely unalterated in Japanese even though they could've just as easily used their own "Kirby's Avalanche". Pretty curious, huh?

Even without all the Nintendo connection (which is certainly there) Puyo Puyo is a pretty big puzzle series that has not yet made an appareance. Tetris, another big puzzle series even got a spirit event a few months back. So yeah I would say Arle is fairly likely. She could be stopped by another SEGA character of course, but I'd say she's got a good standing ground on her own.

Want: 100%
When it comes to SEGA characters, Arle for me is in the forefront in terms of want. While I'd love say, another Sonic character like Eggman (which I feel is long overdue) I'd like Arle just as much. If she were to make it, what I'd like for her moveset is more than just heavily relying on Puyos, though they should be there, is to keep a chain system much like in the games. The higher chain you cause the more damage, stuff like that. Outside of Puyos too, she's got lots of spells, and could do even more if they decide to bundle Carbuncle with her like some games have done. Though I wouldn't mind seeing her alone.

Arle, being a long running character also has lots of designs to use, personally I'd like for them to use the "modern" PPT one as the main, and having a classic one as an alt. I'd also love to see the PP4 outfit but I know that'd be too much, lol. Perhaps they'd go with just the modern look and that'd be fine too.

Rayman

Chance: 15%
Rayman's in an odd place-- last time I believe I rated him 40%, I dropped the score quite a bit now, but it's due to the less spots plus me changing a little how I feel about ratings. Anyways, let's go into it:
Rayman is a pretty long running series by developer Ubisoft. While it has since left the series behind in favor of games such as Assassin's Creed, depending on who you ask, one could say Rayman helped Ubisoft get into the limelight. Ever since, Rayman has been on many consoles, despite spanning not that many games it sure got a lot of ports (looking at you Rayman 2) of course, including Nintendo, so I'm sure they at least knew about it. For a long while, it's clear that Ubisoft pushed for Rayman to be in Smash, even going as far with the model all these years back in Smash 4. Of course, this just says Ubisoft is 100% on board with it which isn't very rare especially when it comes to this game, as it's more up to Nintendo to make the choice.

Ubisoft also puts their games on Nintendo quite often, and it actually has made its way into Smash through Mii Costumes. Since these were at the tail end of FP1, I'm not sure whether or not this means it's all the Ubisoft content, which it could very well be, or if there'd be more. I do find it odd that Rayman's absent from the costume set if it was all, especially since he's the only Ubisoft character with a spirit in the base game aside from Rabbids who did get a costume hat, but as with all these things it could just be a weird omission.

I do echo the sentiment I've read a bit in here that Rayman often feels like "he could happen" but he doesn't, but I think that just happens often with characters. Even if Ubisoft pushes for him a lot, it's not like Rayman's the only choice they have too, aforementioned Assassin's Creed for example is a much bigger series for them nowadays, and Nintendo could also want someone like Ezio who's a beloved and known character even for people who have never tried these games. I guess it's a little more odd there since there's already an Altair costume. Even The Prince from Prince of Persia makes some sense as a legacy character from them, who has also been on Nintendo often. Not to mention that the Rayman series doesn't do well in Japan. Despite all this, due to Ubisoft's collaboration with Nintendo and Rayman's constant appareances in Smash even if not playable, makes me think he could make it, even if the chances aren't all that high. This is more speculation (as there are no results for it) but the ballot could've helped him too, I remember there being a fair amount of support for him then, especially due to that silly fake leak.

Want: 100%
It's most likely clear from my username, Rayman is for sure my "most wanted" character, even if these days others come close to him, he's been a character I've wanted for a long time to see in the game. Rayman's worlds are full of charm, so it'd alone be awesome to see a stage and some music from the games. From 1, you could pick Band Land, the Dream Forest, or even Candy Chateau, all with great tracks to boot. From 2, you could pick one of the Sanctuaries, or Razorbeard's ship. From 3, you could have the Tower of the Leptys, or even something silly like the FunkyBoard stage. All in all there's lots to take from there.

For Rayman himself, one might think "all he does is punch and kick!" as seen in Origins and Legends. While it's not wrong that's mainly what he does, what could be interesting about his approach is his very lack of limbs, which defines his character. Every attack he does wouldn't have to return to him as they're disconnected. Throw a punch? No need to wait for it to come back. Throw a kick? Torso? Head? Same thing! Depending on how they approach him, I think this alone could be pretty fun.
Even leaving that aside, Rayman of course got lots of abilities throughout his games. From 1 alone, he can charge his punches, fly with his helicopter hair, jump through hoops with magic. In 2, he gains energy shots aside from his regular punches, that I imagine could serve as specials here. In 3, Rayman gets sets of powerups that give him varying abilities, creating tornadoes, electric chains (could easily be a grab), even stronger punches, rocket punches, and a propeller for better flight. All in all, I think he would be very fun, especially if they take from a lot through the series.

Lastly, for the design, 3's is my favorite. I think it creates a perfect balance. I'd like the others as well of course. The original one is great.

Lloyd

Chance: 20%
I'm not feeling too big on Bandai Namco's chances at the moment. Nonetheless, Lloyd would make a fair bit of sense. Much like the rest of the series here, Tales is longstanding, and Symphonia was actually one of the few RPGs on Gamecube, This helped it get a fair amount of love from Nintendo players, Lloyd himself becoming a popular request. I even recall finding out about him and Tales in Smash Flash 1, it was there even then. That's why out of all the Tales characters, he was the costume in Smash 4. Even with big popularity-liked ones such as Yuri from Vesperia who was banned from polls because he kept winning them, Lloyd came out on top due to the connection with the Nintendo, and in turn, Smash fanbase.

Now when it comes to getting in nowadays, in Ultimate DLC, I don't think he's got the way as clear as mentioned with Yuri, and even then there are other Bandai Namco characters that could get in his way, but he's got an alright shot. I'll give him that, somehow, he has missed out on returning up until now, even if it'd have made sense to bring him with Sephiroth due to being a RPG character, but I digress, any costume could come back any time. For now, he's most certainly in the running.

Want: 70%
I have to get around to finishing Symphonia. That being said, from what I've played of the game, I'd like him. He seems like a fun character with not only the dual swords but his techniques. I've played a few other Tales aside from Symphonia and the combat is generally really fun with its combos. I can imagine Lloyd having something similar with his moves. Not to mention the music is awesome, Fighting of the Spirits would make for a great reveal trailer theme.


Long post is a long post. Anyways, onto nominations and predictions.

Nominations:
Estelle Bright x20
Worms x10

Predictions:
Crash: 47%
Tracer: 8%

 

[Lionfranky]

Lloyd

Chance: 10%

There is possibility that he may be able to break pattern of Mii costumes returning. But, I feel MH has better chance of doing that. While I guess double blade user would be unique, but I'm not sure how Sakurai feels about that overall. Many characters he said he wanted ended up non-playable. Even with Heihachi out, there are still bigger fish within Bandai Namco like Agumon and Nightmare. Overall, I bet on his Mii costume most likely returning thus deconfirming him.

Want: 20%

I guess he will be a fun character to boot, but if he becomes a roadblock for one of my most wanted, Agumon, then that's when he would be crossing the line. Sorry boy, but my childhood cannot be stopped. I mean I choose nostalgia over the series that I have little experience of. Dual sword or not, he is still a sword user. Sephiroth gets benefit of long rich and his iconic status. I can't give that Lloyd. Agumon would be more interesting choice with digivolution mechanic.

Rayman

Chance: 15%

I don't think Japan would be too much roadblock for him. We have characters that are not popular in Japan yet still made it in. Still, I'm not sure most recent sales is truly a good indicator to sentence him to death. Despite past popularity, Banjo didn't do well either later. I think more damning stuff is Ubisoft contents from FP1. Sure, Rayman series alone can decorate the slot, but it's still worrying that many of Ubisoft series were represented during that period. Despite good relationship with Nintendo, Nintendo only paid back with non-playable materials. With such long draught and waiting, my faith on this guy dwindles. And the current situation of Ubisoft isnt' a good sign either.

Want: 90%

He would fit right in. His cartoony and carefree style will works nicely with fellow platformers. I enjoyed Origin and Legend. I think it would be funny and amusing to hear level end music for his victory theme. He will most likely be a basic fighter without gimmick, but Banjo barely got gimmick with wonder wing. It can be argued that Sephiroth barely passed that bar either.

Arle

Chance: 55%

I think she would be the most likely next Sega rep. There is comment by Yakuza director commenting that he doesn't want Kiryu to beat women. I doubt Sakurai or Nintendo would try to change his mind that much. Not to mention, I feel Nintendo would want to avoid crime theme. It's the same deal with GTA. She's popular request in Japan. While she isn't top choice outside of Japan, her series is gaining momentum, pushed by Sega. At least, she has more ground than Reimu for sure.

Want: 65%

While I haven't gotten into the series, I played other games within the same genre. So, I can see how her moveset would play out. Whole puzzle and bubble would bring wacky yet funny mechanic. We can use a little girl type once in a while to add diversity. She would be in line with characters like Wiifit Trainer and Villager: non-violent characters that can bring unexpected moveset. That's what I love about Smash. I'm sure Sakurai is more than capable of doing her justice.

Nom: Characters that have don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 20
3rd party company gets more than a fighter in the same pass x 10

 

[NintenZ]

Ooh looks like an interesting day lol, lemme start up my ratings

Arle

Chance: 30%

Puyo Puyo is of SEGA’s most popular series selling over 22m units worldwide. The series is very popular in Japan with loads of merchandise, tournaments, a cafe, a highly successful mobile game, and at one point even an amusement park was planned. Arle is a very popular request with Japanese fans commonly ranking highly. While the series was predominantly Japan-exclusive for many years, it’s recently found success in the West with the highly successful Puyo Puyo Tetris which prompted more games to get localized and even a sequel to be commissioned. This brings me to another point, Nintendo has shown a lot of interest in the franchise, Puyo Puyo Tetris was a game released close to the Switch’s launch which Nintendo actively promoted and they’ve shown a lot of interest in the franchise, with them putting the second game on Nintendo Switch Online, and them helping to advertise Champions and Puyo Puyo Tetris 2. So with all this taken into account, why is this only a 30%? Well there’s a couple factors. You see, Puyo Puyo content has never really been prominently featured in collaborations, while LOADS of characters have crossed over into Puyo itself (and I mean loads) it’s only scarcely happened the other way around, for the most part only the Puyo blobs seem to make appearances in collabs rather than the characters themselves. Furthermore some developer comments have made me weary of if she’d be added or not. Of course there’s the notorious fighting game comment one of the developers made, but there’s also the fact that the producer of the series, while saying he’d be open to Arle in Smash, said it in a way suggesting he wasn’t approached for Smash. Another major thing for me is the lack of recent game appearances it had during planning. At the timeframe for planning (Late 2018-late 2019) the only recent Puyo game released at the time was Champions which was an eSports spin-off. No other Puyo games were announced to be in development and Puyo Tetris 2 was only announced months after planning finished. Because of all this I’m uncertain if they would go for a fighter, there’s totally incentive for it but I’m just not sure if they’d be given the okay or if the circumstances align correctly. I’m expecting a Spirit Event and maybe a Mii Outfit possibly of Amitie’s hat? But hey who knows, it could still very well happen.

Want- 100%

Arle has been one of my most-wanted Smash characters for about six years. I’m a massive fan of Puyo Puyo (I’ve played translations of most games in the series as well as the localized ones) and it’s been really nice seeing the series grow more in the West. I think the series has a lot of interesting content and characters to pull from for Smash content, and I think Arle would be a very fun character to play as in Smash. Tbh I’d personally love anyone from SEGA, as I feel they have so many interesting characters to choose from (although they vary in degree of likelihood). Arle is definitely high on that list for me and I would love to see how she could be implemented.

Lloyd

Chance- 15%

Tales Of is one of Namco’s flagship series and one of their most popular series overall. While not very popular overseas, it’s extremely popular in Japan and has sold a total of 23m units worldwide. Symphonia was considered a major turning point in the series and was the game that introduced and popularized a lot of Western audiences with the series. Sakurai also said in Smash 4 when referring to the Mii Costume he had that if he were to choose a character to represent Tales, it would be Lloyd, so that’s important to consider. However I’m very doubtful they’d go for him nowadays for a couple reasons. For one there’s the Mii Costume, since every single Costume from Smash 4 thus far has come back, I don’t think there’s reason to doubt Lloyd’s costume wouldn’t come back as well. Then there’s the fact he has MAJOR competition from another character in his franchise, that being Yuri. Yuri’s game was much more successful, the characters from that game have shown to be more marketable (judging from the amount of appearances they make in other games), and he’s even banned from popularity polls in Japan. Lloyd also has relevancy as an issue, as he hasn’t made any recent game appearances which is why I feel like they’re less likely to go with him. Overall I just feel like his costume will return.

Want- 100%

With that being said yeah I’m all for Lloyd being included. I haven’t played much of Symphonia but from what I’ve played he’s really cool to play as, I think he could prove to be very unique, and I think he’d bring along a great array of content. Furthermore the music in his game is fantastic (bless Motoi Sakuraba), and I would love to hear that music be in Smash Bros. I think Tales as a series has more than proved itself worthy of Smash, and it’d be great seeing it in Smash along with PAC-MAN as Namco franchises. If I had to choose a character from it Yuri or Lloyd would be my choices.

Rayman

Chance- 50%

I actually think he’s got some good odds. For one this is a franchise that Nintendo actually has some sort of stake in. They publish, market, and distribute his games in Japan and Rayman Legends Definitive Edition was a Switch exclusive marked as the definitive version of Rayman Legends. Furthermore Nintendo and Ubisoft are very close, with Ubi working with Nintendo on their IPs such as with Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle. Furthermore, the inclusion of Ubisoft Miis out of the blue with Byleth was rather suspicious, which makes me wonder if there was a sort of purpose later on down the line. It should also be noted that Rayman is a fairly popular request with fans overseas, which I could see being a factor towards him being included. Finally there’s the matter of the trademarks which indicate Ubisoft has further plans on using the IP. All-in-all I think Rayman fares pretty well and I definitely would not be surprised seeing him at all.

Want- 100%

I would love to see Rayman. I think his kit in Origins and Legends proves he could work really well in Smash and I think the aesthetic of Legends really fits Ultimate rather well. There are a lot of characters and locations that could be used for his representation, I think the castle level from Legends would make for an amazing stage and you could have cameos from other characters there. I would love to see how they handle Rayman in Smash honestly.

So all-in-all, these are all characters I would love to see but I’m not really confident in all of them, but I would still love seeing all of them be included.

Anyways...

Nominations:
Kaede Akamatsu (20x)
A Xenoblade Character (10x)

 

[Sari]

Speaking of which, some point at the Altair and Rabbid costumes as proof that Ubisoft won't recieve a character, believing they'd be held back for a Ubisoft challenger pack, which I also don't get. Capcom characters like Phoenix and Dante are brought up very frequently in speculation but I don't see anyone going around claiming they have no chance because the Megaman costumes have already returned. Same thing goes for another SEGA or Bamco character. You could argue that costumes returned when those companies already had fighters but Koei Tecmo already has content in the base in the form of the Fatal Frame Assist but that doesn't stop Ryu Hayabusa from being regarded as one of the most likely DLC candidates.

Somebody who uses this argument against Rayman, please explain to me where the differences lie. I'd appreciate it.

The Capcom/Namco costumes were all ports from SSB4 so I don't really think they're in the same boat as the Altair/Rabbids costumes which were brand new.

The Sega costumes came along with a Sega fighter, so the way I see it the Persona/Sonic costumes are their way of saying "here's some extra goodies to go alongside the fighter we added!" Meanwhile, some may view the Altair/Rabbid costumes as Ubisoft's way of saying "we couldn't get a fighter so here are some costumes!" I think the situation companies like Sega and Square are much different than Ubisoft especially since we got both Hero and Sephiroth who each had their own SE costumes. It should also be noted that the two Sonic costumes (Tails and Knuckles) that released alongside Joker were ports from SSB4 anyway. Plus I've seen people use said costumes against their chances and even that of other Sonic characters like Robotnik (I actually mentioned the costumes when we last rated him).

As for the Koei-Tecmo situation, that was in the base game and if Min Min is anything to show then base game content doesn't matter too much in regards to a character's chances. That's why not many people are putting too much stock into base game spirits killing Hayabusa or Rayman's chances.

---------

On the topic of Mii Costumes, I thought I'd bring up this article involving the Cuphead Mii Costume that may actually really hurt Rayman's chances:

Cuphead's Creator Dreams Of Having Him In Super Smash Bros.

We spoke with StudioMDHR co-founder Jared Moldenhauer about who Cuphead and Mugman should "demolish" in Smash.

www.gameinformer.com

So in March of 2019, the developer of Cuphead stated that he really wanted Cuphead in Smash and that Nintendo could put them in if they wanted. What's really interesting is that he says the following quote: "Just a piece of paper, we don’t need anything. You can have those characters make an appearance."

It wasn't stated if he was directly asked about Smash or whether he brought it up himself. However, based on how specific this quote is in regards to asking Nintendo for Cuphead content (as well as the fact the Switch port of Cuphead had just been announced), I think it's safe to say that the Cuphead Mii Costume was not planned for Ultimate at the time.

Now this is interesting because these comments were in March of 2019, which was well after the roster choice for FP1 was decided on. As we all know, Cuphead would later appear as a Mii Costume... alongside Byelth... in FP1. This may imply that Mii Costumes aren't planned as far in advance as characters are. If this is true, then there is a good chance that the Ubisoft costumes released with Byleth may greatly hurt the chances of Rayman. For all we know they could've agreed to add the costumes after the FP2 character lineup had already been decided on since they figured Rayman couldn't get in as a fighter.

Of course we don't know for certain when Ubisoft and Nintendo agreed to add the Altair/Rabbid costumes, but unless if it was really early in 2019 or sometime before that then I think Rayman may be done for.

 

[frozolloyd]

Lloyd
Chance- 15%
Tales Of is one of Namco’s flagship series and one of their most popular series overall. While not very popular overseas, it’s extremely popular in Japan and has sold a total of 23m units worldwide. Symphonia was considered a major turning point in the series and was the game that introduced and popularized a lot of Western audiences with the series. Sakurai also said in Smash 4 when referring to the Mii Costume he had that if he were to choose a character to represent Tales, it would be Lloyd, so that’s important to consider. However I’m very doubtful they’d go for him nowadays for a couple reasons. For one there’s the Mii Costume, since every single Costume from Smash 4 thus far has come back, I don’t think there’s reason to doubt Lloyd’s costume wouldn’t come back as well. Then there’s the fact he has MAJOR competition from another character in his franchise, that being Yuri. Yuri’s game was much more successful, the characters from that game have shown to be more marketable (judging from the amount of appearances they make in other games), and he’s even banned from popularity polls in Japan. Lloyd also has relevancy as an issue, as he hasn’t made any recent game appearances which is why I feel like they’re less likely to go with him. Overall I just feel like his costume will return.

Going to need a source on that one, chief. Tales of Vesperia is infamous for the game flopping sales wise, due to being sold as a Xbox 360 title (an audience that has never been too big on JRPGs). If you combine all the different versions of Tales of Vesperia sales wise, it has sold about 1.6 million. In comparison, Tales of Symphonia sold 1.6 million copies on the Gamecube and Playstation alone, which does not even factor in Symphonia's remaster sales, or the sequel.
Tales of Vesperia - Wikipedia (under the sales section)
While I agree with some of your other points against Lloyd, Symphonia definitely was the more successful game compared to Vesperia, by a fair margin. Unless you were implying Vesperia was successful in some other way I am not thinking of.

 

[NintenZ]

Going to need a reference on that one, chief. Tales of Vesperia is infamous for the game flopping sales wise, due to being sold as a Xbox 360 title (an audience that has never been too big on JRPGs). If you combine all the different versions of Tales of Vesperia sales wise, it has sold about 1.6 million. In comparison, Tales of Symphonia sold 1.6 million copies on the Gamecube and Playstation alone, which does not even factor in Symphonia's remaster sales, or the sequel.
Tales of Vesperia - Wikipedia (under the sales section)
While I agree with some of your other points against Lloyd, Symphonia definitely was the more successful game compared to Vesperia, by a fair margin. Unless you were implying Vesperia was successful in some other way I am not thinking of.

Apologies I must’ve remembered wrong! I thought I heard Vesperia sold significantly more and wasn’t aware it was only about neck-and-neck, that’s my bad!

I do however still think Yuri serves as a major hurdle for Lloyd but I was misinformed on the sales part so thanks.

 

[mariofan48]

Almost forgot to post this, but my model is currently up on Models Resource!: https://www.models-resource.com/custom_edited/raymancustoms/model/38797/

The Capcom/Namco costumes were all ports from SSB4 so I don't really think they're in the same boat as the Altair/Rabbids costumes which were brand new.

The Sega costumes came along with a Sega fighter, so the way I see it the Persona/Sonic costumes are their way of saying "here's some extra goodies to go alongside the fighter we added!" Meanwhile, some may view the Altair/Rabbid costumes as Ubisoft's way of saying "we couldn't get a fighter so here are some costumes!" I think the situation companies like Sega and Square are much different than Ubisoft especially since we got both Hero and Sephiroth who each had their own SE costumes. It should also be noted that the two Sonic costumes (Tails and Knuckles) that released alongside Joker were ports from SSB4 anyway. Plus I've seen people use said costumes against their chances and even that of other Sonic characters like Robotnik (I actually mentioned the costumes when we last rated him).

Honestly, the only thing I think this deconfirms is the chance of an Assassin's Creed rep or Rabbids getting added. For one, if they were not planning to add Rayman as a full on playable DLC character... why, in that case, would Rayman have not appeared with the Altair and Rabbids Mii Costumes? Obviously I don't want Rayman to be a Mii Fighter Costume at all, but it doesn't make sense as to why they wouldn't at least give him a costume if they never planned to make him an actual DLC character, the fact that Rayman didn't get a Mii Costume means that there could be another reason why he was omitted, such as because he could be DLC in Fighter Pass 2 (which we had just found out about the existence of during Byleth's presentation)

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Arle

Chance: 50%

Puyo Puyo is a popular series in Japan and has been gaining an audience here in the west as well. The series is also one of Sega's best selling franchises, so it has that going for it as well. I wouldn't be surprised seeing the Puyo girl being added at all.

Want: 100%

Puyo Puyo is a great series and Arle would be a fun character. We seem to have a lack of puzzle game reps in the game, with only Dr. Mario who is a clone anyway. Arle would bring a unique playstyle with her being the first puzzle based moveset.

Lloyd

Chance: 50%

Tales has been routinely ranked among the Top 7 JRPG franchises in both gaming magazines and sales. Symphonia is a beloved entry in the series starting from the Gamecube and there has been a respectable amount of fan demand.

Want: 100%

Tales is one of my favorite JRPG series of all time. Having it in a crossover with Persona, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Mother, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, etc, would be a dream come true. Lloyd was also one of my favorite characters to play as in Smash Flash, and I think he'd have a great playstyle to fit Smash.

Rayman

Chance: 20%

I would say the Ubisoft costumes hurt him a little bit, as they were brand new while the Sega and Capcom costumes in DLC were brought back from Smash 4. I wouldn't put him completely out of the running, but while the other two characters we're rating today are mostly Japan based, this guy has more of a fanbase in the west (that doesn't mean he's unknown or anything in Japan, he still has a fair bit of popularity, just that he's the reverse of the two above characters, which of course also have some popularity in the west). And of course, Smash Bros being a mostly Japanese game, would probably be more likely to take characters that are more popular in Japan than characters that are more popular outside of Japan.

Want: 80%

I had a great bit of fun with Rayman Legends as I finally got to it in my backlog last summer. I think he'd be a fun addition.

 

[Ridrool64]

Let's start with the guy I care about the least, who was a very important part of my childhood even if I've mostly moved on.

Chance (Rayman): (10% + 50% + 0%)/300 = 20%. I am of the belief that he would have come with the Ubisoft Mii Costumes (you can get away with saying the AC costume was a coincidence, but the Rabbids costume DEFINITELY would have come with Rayman) that dropped with Byleth so I am not very confident in him for that reason. However, considering that it may have been negotiated for ahead of time, I won't hold it too much against him. Assuming we get one E3 pick, then I actually think this is his best time to show up. E3 is a big western event, and Rayman is a very popular western request, even if characters like Crash, Waluigi and a character from Team Fortress 2 (which I now consider something of a sleeper pick) tend to give him a run for his money. Moreover, Ubisoft and Nintendo have a good enough relationship and Nintendo does not give a **** about controversy. So, I think Rayman has an earnest shot... once.

Want (Rayman): 65%. By no means am I actively pulling for him like Arle nor do I have that much investment in him like Lloyd, but I think Rayman would be a nice, natural fit into the games. His normals write themselves, his potential for special moves is unrivaled, and while he's weak on the Final Smash department that's something I can forgive. And of course, I loved Rayman 2 on PS2 when I was younger, I loved Rayman 3 as well and I'm going back through it as well. Rayman 1 came from the pits of hell. Haven't played Origins or Legends but I really want to some day. Hell, even the Rabbids games are great... to me as a kid. I dunno if they hold up or I'd be groaning the whole time. Still, a character I think would play well in Smash, I personally enjoy, and is wanted by several fans? Count me in.

Now it's time for captain coffee, the Peeping Tom, the Beach Boy himself.

Chance (Lloyd): (30% + 10% + 0%)/300 = 15% (rounded to the nearest number divisible by 5, more accurately closer to 13%). Unfortunately I think Lloyd is at death's door. The trend of returning Mii Costumes, I think spells severe doom for him, His best shot, which isn't even very good, is as the immediate next character. After that if he survives getting Mii'd, then I think he has one last chance at #10. After that, he WILL get Mii'd if he doesn't make it then. But ignoring Mii Costumes I'd rate him at around 65% chance, being a very high one but one I can back up. Lloyd may have been more popular in a bygone era where third parties having Nintendo history was important in the fandom, but he hasn't truly completely fallen off yet. Plus, the Mii Costume gives him acknowledgement where his biggest competitor Yuri lacks, though whether it's in Lloyd or Yuri's favor depends on who you ask.

Want (Lloyd): 80%. Tales of Symphonia has aged like milk coated cheese graphically and like a fine wine in every other way. Even then, it's still probably one of my best experiences of 2014, so glad I played it. I love almost everything about it. So far, Vesperia hasn't grasped me in the same way (though I am only a few hours in, which is borderline seconds in JRPG time). And I love, for how long it is, how easily replayable Symphonia is. Lloyd himself fits Smash Bros like a glove,

And let's get this stuff out of the way. Team Fortress 2 rep x max. Crash will continue to score high even though things have started turning sour for him. Because Crash will score high, Tracer will score low. 57.46% for Crash, 10.32% for Tracer. (I'm also going to give her a low want chance, for reasons you may see coming but in a way that may be less anticipated.)

Now, it's time for the one you've been waiting for. Sari pinged me for this for a reason. My (likely biased) scores for the Apprentice Magician herself!

Spoiler: In fact it's so big that I realized that I really SHOULD spoiler mark it!

Chance: (80 + 20 + 0)/300 = 35% chance (rounded to divisible by 5)!... well that sounds rather low, outside of that chance for Challenger Pack 9. So bump it up because of blatant bias and make it 55%! But I genuinely believe that now is the perfect time to add her. And no, Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 nor the 30th anniversary alone are not why, but I think they are factors that should be taken into account. Instead, it's the back to back combination of Steve and Sephiroth. I'm very confident that our next third party is likely to be a character who is much lower key relative to the star power Steve and Sephiroth carried, similar to how Terry floated by off the backs of Hero and Banjo. Things are lining up, is there any reason why Arle wouldn't happen? Let's take a look at just WHY this random girl from some game in the 80's would be included.

Let's list her positives:

1. Super Puyo Puyo 2 on SNES Online - The single biggest thing that shows that Nintendo, like with Monster Hunter (though obviously not to the same extent), does consider Puyo Puyo at least a notable part of the third party lineup. Unlike with Panel de Pon, where we know why Tetris Attack wasn't used (because Henk Rogers of TTC is not fond of how Tetris Attack isn't actually a Tetris game, any attempts to negotiate for the rights to use the name again would likely fail; hence why there has been no rerelease of Tetris Attack in the west since its initial launch) there is no known reason why Kirby's Avalanche doesn't replace it in western releases. It was literally the only game of its kind like this for the first few releases as well.
2. Very high Japanese popularity - Another massive factor that is well known but hard to quantify exactly how much, especially with a good sample size (meaning less chance of stronger opinions outweighing weaker ones). Judging by the very high number of posts I've found, though, as well as a few polls
3. SEGA making a western push - Ever since 2017 from our perspective, possibly 2016 in truth, SEGA has been attempting to breathe new life in the western Puyo fandom more than ever, after over a decade of pretending it doesn't exist to outright removing it. The 30th Anniversary and new game are supplemental points here, rather than standalone points, because they could be used to further the point of SEGA giving it a push to be among their new gaming pillar.
4. Nintendo and SEGA have good business relations: well, it definitely seems to be that way. Between the multitude of exclusive titles, as well as releasing most of their highest profile games on the Switch, and having three series in Smash already, I don't have a reason to suggest SEGA and Nintendo wouldn't be able to work something out.
5. Puyo Puyo has a little bit of gaming history behind it; before, puzzle games like Tetris rarely featured defined characters or storylines, if they ever did, and were just "here's a bunch of falling blocks, don't get to the top of the screen, good luck". Puyo Puyo 2 became a hit in arcades and quite a few publishers, including Capcom and Nintendo themselves, would try to get a piece of the pie. Not really something super important for Nintendo, but for Sakurai it could influence his decision. Speaking of, being the first puzzle game third party, second overall, and first to not be somebody else would be nice (though again, not an influencing factor).
6. Give and take: Most characters who get into Smash take without giving. Arle is not one of them as through cross promotions, it would be entirely possible for both to show the other love. Puyo is particularly crossover
7. Moveset - One of the biggest reasons why Sakurai would consider the character feasible to include. Granted, there's basically no character who couldn't have animations made for them, but what about characters who have a theme, a sense of flow, or a personality within? Well Arle has that too. Is there anything that could help her stand out? Well, you have the magic spells throughout both series, the mechanics of Puyo Puyo, and if you want to go down that road you can even throw in the Puyo themselves. Three different routes this could manifest:
   1. The Fast-Paced Combo Magician: Arle's moveset mostly makes up her magical abilities for inputs, but the real meat and potatoes comes in the form of a chaining mechanic. She focuses on high speed pressure and serves as the ultimate glass cannon, able to deal loads of damage and KO quickly while also having the fragility of a snowflake in the Sun.
   2. The Defensive Puyo Player: Arle's moveset mostly revolves around more overt Puyo references, such as a dedicated neutral, side or down special. Usually, this type revolves around stage control or setup-and-payoff approaches where she's slower, less death prone, and focuses more on reading and keeping a good eye on the opponent.
   3. The PuyoSuma Mix: An in-between of the two types, where Arle
   4. Something completely different.

Then her neutralities:

1. SEGA has yet to receive any content in Volume 2 - Could be a positive or a negative. It may be that Nintendo is simply done with asking SEGA for stuff in Volume 2. It may also be that SEGA has stuff coming up. Microsoft had nothing beyond Banjo until Steve (with Cuphead and Vault Boy in a gray area), while Square-Enix had multiple Spirit events drop between Hero and Sephiroth. Capcom, one with very common speculation, also has yet to receive content in Volume 2, although the Monster Hunter costumes are still MIA. SEGA has nothing left to add from Smash 4.
2. No credible leakers have suggested anything: the same applied to Bayonetta and Joker, who are also both SEGA but different parts of it. Sonic, who is also a Sonic Team alumni, was leaked back in Brawl as part of the the leak trinity. Things may have in general tightened up.
3. The dual interviews, in particular the more recent one: Absolutely a positive in the long run, but could also be a negative for the here and now. The first interview stated that the higherups did not want a Puyo Puyo fighting game and had it cancelled. Initially this was considered a deathblow as Arle would not be allowed to harm other characters as it also mentioned something about Puyo being peaceful? (I think they meant no realistic violence). However a later interview directly counters this in regards to Smash, with Hosoyamada, the producer (NOT THE CREATOR) of Puyo Puyo today being on board. That in and of itself could be the end, but doesn't directly state whether or not negotiations happened. However it does confirm that most likely Arle would not have negotiation issues when it comes to Smash.
4. Generally I don't think Arle would end up with a Mii Costume. None of the three really have any relevance to her at all. However, Amitie's Puyo cap is perfect hat material.

And last but not least, her weaknesses:

1. Overly Japan-focused Popularity has always been a thorn on the side of many hopefuls, as it was the known reason that Marth and Roy were considered for cutting from the western release, and why Takamaru walked away with an Assist Trophy instead of a full roster spot. Those are first parties, who are likely much more lenient in terms of what can/can't be included. Arle is a third party that Nintendo has to license. That being said, it's directly countered by point 3, so I feel like it's not something that can't be overcome.
2. Overly Recent Popularity is what I consider her actual biggest weakness. Arle's strengths overcome them but only if the roster was decided at least starting with 2018 onwards. If, say, the roster was decided in 2015 or entirely consists of 2015 era rejects, then her chances plummet to nil. In 2015 Puyo was dead in the west outside of its hardcore, dedicated fandom. Considering Steve and Sephiroth both feasibly could have been negotiated for in 2015, things seem risky. The only characters we've gotten that are newer than 2015 are both first parties, which again are likely much more lenient.
3. Competition within SEGA: Tails is dead by Mii. Dr. Eggman is not. The Sonic franchise has always cast its shadow (rimshot) above Puyo ever since the two had the same parent. Hell even before then. Kazuma Kiryu is in more or less a similar boat but trades lower Japanese popularity for more western popularity. It's most likely a chicken race between those three with no clear winner among them. Axel Stone, Blaze Fielding and Sakura (both) got new games, but only time will if they aren't one offs. The rest are about as popular as... a wet sandwich. Not that they aren't loved, but they simply have less promotional power and importance.
4. Competition within Puyo Puyo: Nonexistent, or at least, not a threat. Amitie could come with Arle as an alt, and would likely play second fiddle to her. Ringo and Tee, who are perhaps the more prominent characters over here, have outright no fan demand whatsoever (outside of percents of a percent). For the rest, it'd be some day where Ally or a non protagonist gets in. Not just before Arle, but ever. Still, there's always the remote possibility.
5. Spirit Events: Have been very rare and the last one for a third party was a while ago. Not a weakness specific to Arle, either. But still worth bringing up.

Oh, and there's a rumor suggesting that Arle will be added as part of the 30th anniversary. But while not technically disproven, it's most likely fake because it includes an Amitie Echo (and Quest, which is even faker than Amitie getting in as an Echo). So I'm not factoring it in.

Want: 100%. Arle is no longer the only character I would give a 100% to as somebody in the nominations list (and it's not TF2 rep) would also get one. But she is still easily my most wanted character. I could dredge up the old rating that explains why, but I think I'll do it in a new way. Let's discuss what exactly appeals to me about this franchise.

• The biggest thing for me is simply... I really adore the series as a whole! From a lore perspective, a gameplay perspective and basically everything in between. For gods sake, I wrote basically a fanfic here. That still updates to this day. That's probably a big sign about how much I enjoy it!
• Second, why would I want a character I disliked or thought had no good Smash potential? Arle meets both of these, an enjoyable character and one who I think would be a blast to play as in Smash. My favorite of the big three ideas is the first one simply because I feel like it better represents the speed of Puyo matches and the volatile nature of them.
• Third, I want the series to finally get that seal of potential in the west after getting this far. It feels... I dunno, earned? There's a whole arc. I wasn't there in the fandom's early days, though I was a Puyo fan when I was younger. I just didn't know where to look to find more people who liked it until around 2016. I've met some of my best friends in the fandom! I'd love to see it grow.
• Fourth, at this point I've done too much to not be this invested.

Arle is literally the only character I am actively asking for. She's the one thing standing between me and feeling content with Smash. And it'd make me very happy to get her included. I'm passionate enough to write a wall of text about it!

 

[YoshiandToad]

Arle Righty Then
Chance: 20%
Stupidly popular in Japan, but the series has gained a bit more traction here in recent years, which is honestly a good thing as poor Sonic and Kiryu have been baring the brunt of keeping Sega alive, so it's nice that Sega's been more open to pushing some series that aren't Sonic and Yakuza.

I think the fact she's rather different from anyone on the DLC thus far is a positive in my eyes.

Want: 40%
I'm not massively familiar with Puyo Puyo at current, and unfortunately for Arle there's several other Sega series including not only Sonic, but Streets of Rage and I may be one of the few people who's incredibly excited for the Alex Kidd remakes coming this year.

However, whilst Arle is competition for my true most wanted Sega characters(who I'm ashamed to admit ARE Tails and Eggman despite my bold claims about loving Streets of Rage and Alex Kidd), I don't think I could feel too disappointed if she made the cut as she certainly feels like one of the Sega franchises that deserves Smash recognition most.

Lloyd "Tales" Prower
Chance: 20%
Rumours on the inside of Tales being considered with Yuri and Lloyd's names being chucked around. Lloyd was once described as the character Sakurai would pick if he was to include a Tales character and hey, his Mii outfit IS currently missing.

Tales is also one of Namco's biggest franchises, only lagging behind Souls, Tekken(unlikely thanks to Heihachi's Mii outfit) and Pac-Man(currently in).

That said, Geno's Mii outfit was missing until Sephiroth's return and Yuri's name has been tossed around as much as Lloyd, and from what I understand Yuri is the more popular Tales protagonist these days...

Want: 5%
I'm sorry, Tales is just the least interesting Namco series option for Smash for me.

Souls is a far bigger breakout hit in the past decade, Tekken is a considerably bigger success overall and contains leads with demon powers and Namco has just more far unique options I'd rather see even from smaller nicher series like The Prince from Katamari, Agumon from Digimon or even Klonoa from...err...Klonoa.

Plus as cliche as it is, yeah...Lloyd would be yet another DLC JRPG character that uses a sword. Sorry, two swords. Which honestly is as dull as carrying one to me.

If we absolutely have to get another swordsman from Namco I'd much rather have Nightmare from Soul Calibur just for something visually more interesting to look.

Still....even if I don't care about Tales, I'll give a bigger want for Lloyd than...

Has no Limbs to hold him down
Chance: 15%
Rayman was once one of the few Third Parties I could see make the cut, but between missing the base roster this time, being a spirit and not being in Fighters Pass 1 I'm losing hope on him.

Rayman's creator also recently left Ubisoft so honestly his future is a little uncertain right now.

Want: 0%
Rayman was one of my most wanted third parties for Sm4sh even prior to his trophy reveal, and this time last year I'd still have ranked him highly.

Ubisoft in the past year have managed to successfully kill off any want for him, Ezio, the Rabbids or any other Ubisoft character through the many allegations that came to light.
Not knocking those of you who want Rayman, you're absolutely allowed to support Rayman, I just personally don't want to support anything Ubisoft does and am avoiding buying their products from here on...

...Which really ****ing sucks because Scott Pilgrim was my favourite side scrolling Beat Em Up and they tried to deflect attention from the sexual misconduct allegations by announcing it's release again. Cheeky ****s.

Anyway, Rayman's actually a great character full of personality and weirdness, and if it hadn't been for the events of 2020 revealing Ubisoft to be covering up some pretty serious stuff I'd have been giving him 80% ratings or higher. But alas. They ruined it for me.

I've tried to retype this want four times now and I've managed to narrow it down to two swears from the previous eight. It's an improvement. I'm really angry about Ubisoft at current.

 

[mariofan48]

Arle Righty Then
Chance: 20%
Stupidly popular in Japan, but the series has gained a bit more traction here in recent years, which is honestly a good thing as poor Sonic and Kiryu have been baring the brunt of keeping Sega alive, so it's nice that Sega's been more open to pushing some series that aren't Sonic and Yakuza.

I think the fact she's rather different from anyone on the DLC thus far is a positive in my eyes.

Want: 40%
I'm not massively familiar with Puyo Puyo at current, and unfortunately for Arle there's several other Sega series including not only Sonic, but Streets of Rage and I may be one of the few people who's incredibly excited for the Alex Kidd remakes coming this year.

However, whilst Arle is competition for my true most wanted Sega characters(who I'm ashamed to admit ARE Tails and Eggman despite my bold claims about loving Streets of Rage and Alex Kidd), I don't think I could feel too disappointed if she made the cut as she certainly feels like one of the Sega franchises that deserves Smash recognition most.

Lloyd "Tales" Prower
Chance: 20%
Rumours on the inside of Tales being considered with Yuri and Lloyd's names being chucked around. Lloyd was once described as the character Sakurai would pick if he was to include a Tales character and hey, his Mii outfit IS currently missing.

Tales is also one of Namco's biggest franchises, only lagging behind Souls, Tekken(unlikely thanks to Heihachi's Mii outfit) and Pac-Man(currently in).

That said, Geno's Mii outfit was missing until Sephiroth's return and Yuri's name has been tossed around as much as Lloyd, and from what I understand Yuri is the more popular Tales protagonist these days...

Want: 5%
I'm sorry, Tales is just the least interesting Namco series option for Smash for me.

Souls is a far bigger breakout hit in the past decade, Tekken is a considerably bigger success overall and contains leads with demon powers and Namco has just more far unique options I'd rather see even from smaller nicher series like The Prince from Katamari, Agumon from Digimon or even Klonoa from...err...Klonoa.

Plus as cliche as it is, yeah...Lloyd would be yet another DLC JRPG character that uses a sword. Sorry, two swords. Which honestly is as dull as carrying one to me.

If we absolutely have to get another swordsman from Namco I'd much rather have Nightmare from Soul Calibur just for something visually more interesting to look.

Still....even if I don't care about Tales, I'll give a bigger want for Lloyd than...

Has no Limbs to hold him down
Chance: 15%
Rayman was once one of the few Third Parties I could see make the cut, but between missing the base roster this time, being a spirit and not being in Fighters Pass 1 I'm losing hope on him.

Rayman's creator also recently left Ubisoft so honestly his future is a little uncertain right now.

Want: 0%
Rayman was one of my most wanted third parties for Sm4sh even prior to his trophy reveal, and this time last year I'd still have ranked him highly.

Ubisoft in the past year have managed to successfully kill off any want for him, Ezio, the Rabbids or any other Ubisoft character through the many allegations that came to light.
Not knocking those of you who want Rayman, you're absolutely allowed to support Rayman, I just personally don't want to support anything Ubisoft does and am avoiding buying their products from here on...

...Which really ****ing sucks because Scott Pilgrim was my favourite side scrolling Beat Em Up and they tried to deflect attention from the sexual misconduct allegations by announcing it's release again. Cheeky ****s.

Anyway, Rayman's actually a great character full of personality and weirdness, and if it hadn't been for the events of 2020 revealing Ubisoft to be covering up some pretty serious stuff I'd have been giving him 80% ratings or higher. But alas. They ruined it for me.

I've tried to retype this want four times now and I've managed to narrow it down to two swears from the previous eight. It's an improvement. I'm really angry about Ubisoft at current.

Honestly I can see why the current stuff going on at Ubisoft can be a valid reason, but for me. I love Rayman to much to care. I'm not saying that what they are doing is good, but I'm saying that I am willing to overlook it because I want Rayman in Smash more than ANYONE else right now, and I don't care what they have to do to make that happen, because I want it more than anything. Ubisoft can pay for what they've done, and I hope that they do, but I will continue to support Rayman because I love the character and I don't care about the controversey just for that reason.

Of course, Rayman is the only franchise I will continue to buy from Ubisoft, they've already turned me off of everything else prior to the misconduct, but I could never see myself not buying Rayman no matter what Ubi decides to do.

 

[SharkLord]

Alrighty then, here we go. I've actually been pretty confident in Lloyd. Had we rated him a bit earlier, I might've gone as far as 80%(!) but after a little while I realized I might be setting myself up for a fall if I put too much stock in someone. Still, I'm pretty optimistic

Lloyd from Ninjago
Might be a somewhat divisive opinion, but I think Lloyd is in a pretty good spot. Tales is a big series, especially overseas; It gets anniversary streams and apparently it gets it's own conventions as well. Lloyd himself is from the game that made Tales big, especially in the West, and is a pretty popular request as well.

There's two arguments against him. The first is competition from Yuri, and the second is the Mii Costume. Let's go over those.

Yuri is often brought up as an alternative for Lloyd, with the points cited being that A: He's extremely popular in the Tales fanbase, and B: His game is on the Switch. That being said, I think one thing that's overlooked is that Lloyd is also the most popular Tales character, just for the Smash fanbase rather than the Tales fanbase, and arguably the general audience as well. This is important because he's put in a similar situation to Cloud.
Sakurai x Nomura: Creator Interview 2016 [Part One] – Source Gaming

Cloud, like Lloyd, was from the game that made his series big worldwide, and he has the edge in popularity for Smash. Lloyd is a fairly common sight on polls, while Yuri seems to be primarily concentrated around SmashBoards. One instance of this is SourceGaming's Megapoll. It's obviously not exact, but I think it's at least good for a vague image.

So I checked back on the big SourceGaming poll, which, while not 100% accurate, is the most credible thing we really have, and out of the Tales characters...

• Lloyd placed 23rd, with 263 votes
• Yuri was 66th, with 56 votes
• Velvet was 134th, with 25 votes
• Colette and Ludger were tied for 543rd, with 2 votes
• Alphen, Asbel, Luke, Rondoline, and Jude were one of the many in 727th place, with only a single vote each

So yeah. Not 100% accurate, but it's arguably the best we've got and it seems that Lloyd's far and away the most heavily-requested.

Some random extra trivia:

• Lloyd got more votes than Heavy, Monster Hunter, Scorpion, and any Sonic rep
• Yuri somehow got less votes than Klonoa, despite the latter being dead for a long while. I'm actually surprised that the little guy surpassed Yuri, or that he got into the top 50.
• Velvet got less votes than G O K U, who is currently on his way to break into the houses of all you non-believers in full drip attire
• Ludger was listed in 727th place twice because one guy typed in his full name and another guy left out the middle name.

In this poll, Lloyd got almost five times as many votes as Yuri. Probably not that exact number, but I think it's at least accurate in that Lloyd is a decently popular request and far and away the most popular Tales request. Even if Nintendo's making the choices and not Sakurai, I feel that they'll take the opportunity to appeal to the fans of their own game, seeing as they allowed Banjo in because of the sheer number of requests he got.

As for the Mii Costume thing... Honestly, it doesn't seem that solid. There hasn't even been an official statement like with Spirits in base game Ultimate of ATs in SSB4. At the end of the day, they're just costumes that may or may not come back, much like how any other character can get Mii'd. And even if it's a trend, Smash has a habit of breaking those trends, then moving on and breaking another. had the least amount of Nintendo connections of any character up to that point, was the first character owned by a Western company, was on the smaller side of the third-parties, was the first Spirit to be promoted, etc. At this rate, we could say that breaking patterns is a pattern in and of itself, and Lloyd would break the pattern of returning Mii Costumes.

Aside from that, there's something Lloyd doesn't has that none of the other returning Miis have: Base game representation. To wit:

• Knuckles, Zero, and Akira have Assist Trophies
• Tails and Geno have Spirits
• Proto Man, X, and MegaMan.EXE appear in Mega Man's Final Smash on top of being Spirits
• Heihachi and Gil are part of Pac-Man's Namco Roulette
• Chocobo isn't directly represented, but it at least has Cloud to represent it's series. Same with the Hunters and Rathalos, if we're counting them

Tales, though? Nothing. Nothing at all, not even the Namco Roulette. It's pretty fishy, especially after Steve proved that some fighters can be negotiated for many years in advance. I could see Lloyd being planned for the base game but pushed back for whatever reason (Nintendo not wanting Namco to get too much of the profits, Namco specifically requesting he be DLC for whatever reason, etc.)

Overall, I'd peg Lloyd's chances at 65%. Maybe the arguments against him will turn out true, but I'm pretty optimistic.

For want, I'm giving a 70%. Tales isn't a series I'm very familiar with, but I'm interested in it. Lloyd sounds like he's have a pretty cool moveset; His moveset would revolve around combos and chaining attacks into each other. He'd basically be Terry with swords, and seeing as I enjoy both of those he sounds really appealing. That, and it turns out pushing someone as likely is a good way to make you want them.

Speaking of moveset, I've compiled what I know of Symphonia to see what we could get.

In Tales, characters can use moves in rapid succession to chain them together, essentially combining the two. Aside from that, Symphonia has two branches for it's techniques; Technical, which generally deals more hits, and Strike, which hits harder. This could be replicated by pressing the button multiple times for the Technical branch and holding the button down for the Strike branch. These techniques include:

• Demon Fang - A wave of energy across the ground. Similar to Terry's Power Wave, actually. Probably a neutral special
  • Double Demon Fang/Demonic Chaos - The Technical branch, fires off a second wave, then a third.
  • Fierce Demon Fang/Demonic Circle - The Strike branch, a stronger, shorter-range wave.
    • Demonic Thrust - Demon Fang chained into Sonic Thrust
    • Demonic Tiger Blade - Demon Fang chained into Tiger Blade
• Sonic Thrust - A thrust, probably either a forward smash or side special.
  • Hurricane Thrust - The Technical branch, adds a burst of wind to the end.
  • Super Sonic Thrust - The Strike branch, a stronger Sonic Thrust
• Sword Rain- A rapid series of thrusts. Probably a jab, but could work as a side special.
  • Sword Rain: Alpha/Sword Rain: Beta - The Technical branch, essentially adding more hits to Sword Rain
  • Sonic Sword Rain - The Strike branch, adding a thrust to the end of Sword Rain. Essentially Sword Rain chained into Sonic Thrust, but used independently of it.
    • Raining Tiger Blade - Sword Rain chained into Tiger Blade
    • Beast Sword Rain - Sword Rain chained into Beast
• Tiger Blade - A rising upwards slash, followed by a downwards slash. Most likely an up special.
  • Tiger Rage - The Technical branch, adds more hits before the downwards slash.
  • Heavy Tiger Blade/Twin Tiger Blade - The Strike branch, adds enough force the knock the opponent down, with the latter adding a second Tiger Blade before the knockdown happens.
• Tempest - A multi-hitting somersaulting slash. Could fit as a side special, up special, down special, or even a neutral aerial.
  • Omega Tempest - The Technical branch Lloyd spins upward to continue the attack
  • Psi Tempest - The Strike branch, has better range and deals more damage.
    • Tempest Thrust - Tempest chained into Sonic Thrust
    • Tempest Beast - Tempest chained into Beast
• Beast - A strike that summons a blast of energy shaped like a lion's head. Probably a side special, down special, or forward smash.
  • Raging Beast - The Technical branch, Lloyd spins to draw enemies in before performing the strike
  • Hunting Beast - Lloyd uses a weakened version of Beast, then flips into the air and slams back down, creating a shockwave
• Rising Falcon - Lloyd leaps up and dives down at a diagonal angle. Could be uses as an up special, down special, or down aerial
• Guardian - Lloyd forms a barrier of energy around himself. Probably used as his shield, though it could also work as a down special
• Falcon's Crest - Lloyd merges his swords together into a single large blade and smashes them into the enemy. Since it's an endgame technique that can only be used with his strongest weapons, the Material Blade, it's more than likely going to end up his Final Smash.

Abstain on Rayman and Arle. Might go back for the latter, but I'm mainly here for Lloyd.

 

[NintenRob]

I'm gonna abstain and nominate Carmen x5

 

[Lyncario]

Fixed schedule part 9: I ran out of Jojo parts

Rayman

Chances: 8%

At the begining of FP2, I felt pretty good about Rayman's chances, with them being around 20% at the time, partly thanks to the ubisoft mii costumes that came with Byleth. When the mii costumes for Min-Min hapened, I though that Rayman would either be a mii here, or would be a fighter, and well, he wasn't, so I really though that he would happen at that time. But then, time began to pass, and I just feel it hapening less and less. The very good point for Rayman joining Smash is that Ubisoft and Nintendo have a very good relationship since a pretty long time, so much that Rayman got an honorable mention in Smash ever since Sm4sh with his trophy, and in Ultimate he got a spirit, both time in base game. Rayman is also a very requested character, especialy in Europe. This is a good reason to think that Rayman has always been at least though of a character to join Smash, but while it can feel very good for him, it's also no guarantee at all. Rayman's major problem is that he's not popular at all in Japan, not even Rayman Legends sold well (not even by Wii U standard) there despite how it was published by Nintendo, and while being unpopular in Japan is not a death sentence, the fact that the big majority of Ultimate's cast is composed of characters who are popular in Japan, with the only 3 exceptions being Little Mac, Ridley, and Dark Samus, which is proof that it can happen, but it's also not likely, especialy since out of them Ridley was one of the most popular requests of all time (not saying that Rayman doesn't have a lot of request, he's just not on the level of Ridley), and Dark Samus is an echo. Little Mac is far closer to him, but Punch-Out also got a recent revival thanks to Mac's assist trophy in Brawl and Punch-Out Wii (which also gave him back revelancy, something that Rayman doesn't really have as of lately since Ubisoft seems to just refuse giving him a new game on consoles). I also think that the trademarks that hapened a while back means less and less as time passes, and they most likely means nothing now. It can happen, but the more time passes, the less I see it hapening.

Want: 99%

Which I find to be an extreme shame because Rayman is easily one of my most wanted characters. Getting that out of the way now, Ubisoft is a terrible company and the highter ups do not deserve anything good hapening to them, and while it made me want Rayman less on the moment, especialy when the allegations against Michel Ancel hapened, I have cooled off since then and while I still don't think Ubisoft doesn't deserve anything right now, their ips and the fans of their ips really deserve better than Ubisoft. Now, for the more regular want side of stuff, Rayman is a character I pretty much grew up with since I am french, and I really liked his games a lot as a kid, I still do. Rayman could also have a really cool moveset, between his basic yet extremly solid moves in Origins and Legends and his abilities and power ups from Rayman 2 and Rayman 3, he would be a really cool fighter to have in my opinion.

Lloyd

Chances: 2%

Yeah, I don't see him hapening at all. First of all, the missing Sm4sh miis seem to all come back for this pass, as all the characters of FP2 brought at least one of them alongside them, and I fully expect for Lloyd to get the same treatment that Heihachi, Gil, Chocobo, and Geno got, a slightly upgraded costume, but still only a costume none the less. Otheriwse, Tales Of is pretty popular for a jrpg even if nowhere near the level of Pokemon, FF, DQ, or since more recently, Persona and FE. The most popular game of the series is Tales Of Symphonia, the game where Lloyd is the protagonist, which is good for him, however something that isn't great for him is that while Symphonia is the "FFVII" of Tales Of, Lloyd isn't near the level of Cloud in term of sigled out characters, while the character who is commonly seen as the most popular character of the series is Yuri Lowell, the protag of another Tales Of game, whihc also makes him a big competition in Lloyd's way, I'd even say that he's currently the most likely Tales Of character, even if I still don't see him as likely. Something that Lloyd does once again have going for him is that he's popular in the Smash fanbase. I also don't think that a new Bandai Namco character is likely at all for FP2, despite how I though that Heihachi was very likely at the begining of it. I also think that for arpg, Nintendo would prioritize Ys or the Trails series over Tales Of at the moment, though I could be totaly wrong on that point.

Want: 55%

Eh, I would be fine with Lloyd joining Smash, though I'm also not convinced about him at all, and a big part of it being his moveset in SSF2 just kinda boring me, like really I think that the moveset he has in this game is just extremly meh, and I don't like playing him at all in it, and ocnsidering that it's the closest we have to Lloyd actualy being in Smash, it does not put him under a good light for me, though I'm also sure that Sakurai and his team could make something cool for ihm, especialy if his moveset would include another character from Symphonia helping him since I saw some neat moveset concepts that have that a while ago. Otherwise, a Tale Of stage could be neat, the music would be good, and representing a part of the hisotry of jrpgs that comes along Tales Of would be nice, even if I'm not personaly a fan of the series.

Arle

Chances: 20%

I was originaly going to give her a very low 1% chance score due to the interview about the director of Puyo Puyo did not want Arle and other Puyo Puyo characters in fighting games, but as it turns out, he would be fine with it since Smash is more on the cartoony side of stuff most of the time. But since it seems to not be a problem, then Arle once again seems like the most likely Sega character to me. First of all, Arle and Puyo Puyo have seen more popularity lately, notably thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris and it's sequel being sucesses, with the latter even getting Sonic as dlc. With the series getting pushed by Sega as of lately, and with how it's getting more and more popular, has a lot of Nintendo presence, and even with how Arle has been requested for some time in Europe and Japan where she often placed failry well in fan polls, things mostly lookd good for her. I can perfectly well see her getting in Smash, even if I don't think that she's on the level of Dante, Hayabusa, or Adol, for example. She's certainly a big possibility, especilay if Sega was to get another character, I very much believe that she's the most likely new Sega rep, over someone from SMT, Sakura Shinguji, Eggman, and Tails.

Want: 80%

Arle is adorable, and it's just a plain truth. I like Arle quite a lot as a character, and yes, a big part of it is that she's incredibly cute. Not only would she wjoin the rank of the big cuties of SMash alongside Kirby, but she could also have a very interesting moveset using the Puyos, while also having a more traditionnal part of it that uses her jrpg origin from Madou Monotagari, where she uses the basic stuff most jrpg protags uses between a sword, elemental spells, which could make for a very solid basic moveset, while the puyos could be used as a set-up/trap mechanic, which could make her extremly complex, but also very fun to master, like her games, even if I'm personaly not good at them. And yes, I apreaciate ocasionaly playing Puyo Puyo, even if I'm not good at it. The stage could be fun, and the closest we get to a Tetris stage in the game, and the music would also be nice. Overall, even if she's not one of my most wanted, I would apreciate Arle in Smash a lot.

Nominations

Madeline mii x30

Predictions

Crash: 59.4%

Tracer: 8.4%

 

[Sari]

Lloyd

Chance: 25%
Tales is one of the most popular JPRGs and one of Namcos biggest series. Lloyd also has the unique distinction of being the single best character to represent the Tales series as stated by Sakurai himself. As of right now, Tales has absolutely zero content in Ultimate which can definitely be seen as a plus since they other characters like Heihachi can't say the same.

Whether Lloyd returns or not really seems to hinge on one thing: his SSB4 Mii Costume which is currently MIA. Lloyd and the two Monster Hunter characters are the only costumes from SSB4 that have yet to return. At the rate things are going, it may seem like the remaining SSB4 costumes will return and in turn deconfirm their respective characters. Now of course the costumes were originally made before Ultimate even started, but Sakurai may find it easier to represent Tales through a pre-made costume instead of going through all the work to make a fighter.

Another issue comes from one of Namco's other series: Dark Souls. Despite the Tales series having a 14 year head start, the Souls series has quickly overcome Tales in terms of sales. I'm not too familiar with what someone like Chosen Undead has going for them in Smash, but I think the size that the Souls series has gotten to is something Lloyd has to watch out for.

I'll end this rating by saying that if Lloyd isn't a playable character then we are 100% getting his costume back. It just makes too much sense to release it at this point.

Want: Abstain
I never really got into the Tales series so I won't give a score. I did play a tiny bit of Symphonia but still haven't really gotten far in it.


-----

Rayman

Chance: 1%
Ubisoft has been pretty close with Nintendo recently, as seen with the Mario + Rabbids game and the fact that Nintendo even published the Japanese version of Rayman Legends. Rayman is also a relatively well-known name in the West and even has had actual Smash content in the past via the SSB4 trophies and the base game spirit in Ultimate (which shouldn't really affect his chances now that we're in FP2). Sadly that's where I have to stop talking about the positives.

The Rayman series has not done well in Japan. From the little info that I could find (since Japan doesn't seem to talk about Rayman), the Rayman series as a whole has never really kicked off in Japan while Rayman 3 didn't release over there when it first launched. I'm unfamiliar with how PSN/Xbox Live in general work so I'm not sure if Japanese players could technically play Rayman 3 via the HD port years later, but the fact it didn't even release in Japan during the gaming generation that it was created should say a lot about the series over there. As for more recent news, both the initial release of Rayman Legends as well as the Switch remaster years later flopped hard in Japan. I think the Rabbids series has done better over there, but by now the Rabbids has become it's own thing similar to Persona branching off from Shin Megami Tensei to the point where a Rabbid could compete with Rayman.
...Comparing Rabbids to Persona was certainly not something I expected when starting this day...

If your series hasn't done well in Japan then I think that is a major blow to your chances. For base game? I could see Rayman having a shot since we've gotten characters like Little Mac before. When paid DLC is on the line in which most people will be purchasing the characters individually? Yeah I don't see Nintendo taking the risk when he isn't even popular in their own country. If Assassin's Creed - Ubisoft's biggest franchise that is super popular in Japan and just way more popular than Rayman in general - couldn't get a fighter then I don't have much hope for Rayman.

I was originally going to be generous and give this a 5%, but after thinking about the Cuphead/FP1 situation that I mentioned earlier then I think Rayman may have just missed his chance as a character. I personally believe that all of the FP2 characters had already been decided on sometime before September 2019 when more DLC was announced. I have a feeling that they decided on the Ubisoft costumes around the same time as the Cuphead one which would've had to have been after March 2019. By that point I think Nintendo had already eyed up their picks for FP2 and the completely brand new Altair/Rabbid costumes were the result of whatever plans Nintendo/Ubisoft went through.

Want: 55%
My experience with the Rayman series isn't the most deep. For starters, most of my main Rayman-related memories comes from Raving Rabbids 2 of all games which isn't even a real Rayman title (as stupid as that game was I have a ton of nostalgia for it). I've played a handful of the smaller Rayman games but haven't really gotten into the true main games yet. I've been eyeing up Rayman Legends (which conveniently is on sale for $10 on the Switch eShop right now) and would like to try out Rayman 2 if I could find an easy way to play it. Rayman seems like a fun and colorful character that would fit into Smash well.

EDIT: I should add that I caved in and bought Legends since it was on sale. Hope I have fun with it.

why, in that case, would Rayman have not appeared with the Altair and Rabbids Mii Costumes?

Assassin's Creed is just waaaay more popular in Japan than Rayman. As for the Rabbid costume, I'm pretty sure the Rabbids series has done better over in Japan given what I mentioned about Rayman earlier. The fact that Rabbids had a crossover with Mario and are even getting their own movie supports my theory that Rabbids are just way more easier to market than Rayman... as unfortunate as that may be.

Also this is just me theorizing, but I feel like Sakurai couldn't think of a way for Rayman to work as a costume at the time given how he has no limbs. We later saw limbless Minecraft costumes release with Steve, so perhaps Sakurai could now try to work Rayman as a costume? Not trying to shoot down his chances as a character but just thought I'd bring up that possibility.



-----

Arle
I only learned recently that her named is pronounced "Are-ul" instead of "Are-Lay"

Chance: 30%
The Sega frontrunner imo. Puyo Puyo has always been super popular in Japan and has recently been getting a giant push from Sega in the West. Their push for Western popularity (which started around 2015/2016) also seems to be just in time as SNK started reviving their IPs and 2016 and we all know what became of that. There isn't really much to say that goes against her chances apart from general competition.

As for that one old comment about Arle not wanting to fight, it means basically nothing for her chances. Keep in mind the original comment was in regards to if an entire Puyo Puyo fighting game should be made which wouldn't really make sense. If Nintendo turned down the idea of an Animal Crossing fighting game, does that mean Villager and Isabelle would automatically be disqualified for Smash?

Want: 90%
Puyo Puyo has always been super fun as I played a ton of Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine many years ago. Then I tried out Puyo Puyo Tetris which solidified the series as one of my favorite puzzle series. Arle is up there with Robotnik and Axel Stone as my one of my most wanted Sega characters. I just hope that if Arle gets in then we get some of the other Puyo Puyo characters via the Hero treatment. Also we are long overdue for a falling block puzzle stage and if Puyo Puyo Tetris is implemented then we may finally get the long awaited Tetris stage!


-----

Crash chance prediction: 35.00% (expecting a ton of people to say his chances are somehow dead because of that silly rumor regarding the supposedly scrapped cartoon)
Tracer chance prediction: 20.00%

Nominations:
Curly as Quote's alt/echo x10
Trevor Philips x20

 

[Golden Icarus]

Lloyd Irving
Chance - 50%
A Tales character being added in this pass might be my most confident prediction right now. Between his Mii costume being held off, the major leaks discussing him, and the fact that Heihachi is out of the running for this pass makes me feel that he has a really good shot. A second Bandai Namco character feels right, and Tales is kind of the next big JRPG series that isn’t already in Smash now that we have Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Not to mention Lloyd has always been a huge Smash request.

Normally, I would say that Yuri might have a slightly better chance given his popularity within the Tales fanbase, but Lloyd is the bigger Smash request and is more of a Nintendo character. It’s a tough call.

Honestly, and this might sound like a tin foil hat theory, but I think we could even be getting both of them in this pass. A lot of people counted out Sephiroth after we got Hero, and a lot of people counted out Steve after we got Banjo. I know that getting two characters from the same game series in the same pass sounds unlikely, but both characters have plenty of merit to warrant their own spots. It could even explain why we’re getting an extra character in this Fighters Pass. Maybe FP2 was gonna add a Tales rep, but they couldn’t decide between Lloyd and Yuri, so they decided to add both and expand the pass to include 6 characters instead of 5.

At this point I would honestly rate a Tales rep at 80%. 30% we just get Yuri, 35% we just get Lloyd, 15% we get both.

Want - 80%
Not a personal pick, but one I would definitely be down with. I tried Symphonia and Vesperia, but didn’t get more than 5 hours into either of them. Not my cup of tea. Still, I have a couple of close friends that grew up with Symphonia, so seeing them get Lloyd would be really exciting.

Arle Nadja
Chance - 15%
A sleeper pick for sure. She’s pretty popular, especially in Japan, and would be a very unique character in Smash. Both in terms of moveset, and the fact that she’s a puzzle rep. I’m not super confident in another SEGA character, but Arle might be the most likely one right now. While I’d prefer Kiryu, Yakuza would probably take the backseat to Puyo Puyo when it comes to Smash.

Want - 60%
As a man of culture, I grew playing a lot of Mean Bean Machine, so I know a thing or two about Puyo Puyo. On top of that, Puyo Puyo Tetris is loads of fun and definitely one of my favorite Switch games. But frankly, I could give a toss about the characters. I’m sure they’re interesting and I do like the designs, but I just skip through the cutscenes when I play Puyo Puyo so I don’t really know anything about Arle. Even then, seeing Puyo Puyo represented in Smash would be neat, and I’m curious how Arle would play.

Rayman
Chance - 12%
Everybody seems to be on a similar page. After feeling like a strong possibility for Smash 4 DLC, a frontrunner for Ultimate, and a likely FP1 pick, it’s hard to still feel good about his chances. He always feels so close, but never makes it all the way. And now with his franchise lacking any new entries and Ubisoft just being a crap company, things are just kinda...rough. I won’t quite count him out. Maybe he’ll finally come when we least expect it. Who knows. But I’m not counting on it.

Want - 100%
I mean yeah I love this series and I genuinely love Rayman’s design. Rayman Legends is a masterpiece. After growing up with his games and enjoying everything from Rayman Arena to Rayman Raving Rabbids (Rabbids 2 is unironically one of my favorite party games) it would be a beautiful moment for me to finally see him in Smash.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

especially after Steve proved that some fighters can be negotiated for many years in advance

I've thought about that, but then remembered: Why the h*** would it take 3-4 years to negotiate a character owned by the company making the game? What negotiations were there to even do?

 

[Inue Houji]

Lloyd Irving
Chance: 80%
Along with the many reasons laid out by other people, this is the reason I'm almost certain he's in. It was filed just around the time the second fighter pass was announced. And come on, if that's not a logo made for Smash, I don't know what is.
It was used for the Tales 25th anniversary, but I find it suspicious that they only made a logo now, after 25 years. I would have rated him even higher, if it wasn't for the off-chance it could be Yuri Lowell from Vesperia.

Want: 100%
I haven't played through the game yet myself, but I watched my step-cousin play through it when I was younger. I can't remember much of it, but it left a deep impression on me.
This tune especially. He was using a walkthrough, and I couldn't comprehend why.
Now that I'm playing Vesperia, I definitely see why.
I'm probably biased when it comes to Lloyd, since he's probably the only selfish pick of mine that has a real chance of getting in.
I'm just rambling incoherently aren't I?
Lloyd is cool.


Rayman
Chance: 8%
There's really only one point I need to mention. The rabbids Mii costume. It could be a good sign, but I'm leaning towards a bad sign.

Want: 30%
I like Rayman games, he's a unique character, and could bring unique stuff to Smash.
But for some reason, he just doesn't excite me. By every measure, he should, but he just doesn't.


Arle Nadja
Chance: 15%
It's definitely possible, but she has stiff competition. Could see her as a Sakurai pick, but I'm less confident in Nintendo.

Want: 20%
The only time I've played Puyo Puyo is in the Yakuza/Ryū ga Gotoku arcade minigames.
She could definitely be very unique though, assuming they try implementing the puzzle game mechanics.


Trying to write something substantial for my most wanteds takes a toll(not that I actually manage to do so), so sorry for the lacking reasoning on the others.

Predictions
Crash: 37.8%
Tracer: 6.8%

Nominations
Rallen x20

 

[SharkLord]

I've thought about that, but then remembered: Why the h*** would it take 3-4 years to negatiate a character owned by the company making the game? What negotiations were there to even do?

Perhaps Nintendo was worried Namco would get too much of the base game's profits? They're working on the game and they have a lot of little franchises scattered about aside from Pac-Man, so I'd assume they'd get a decently large slice of the pie. Maybe Nintendo didn't want to give out licenses for a second big Namco series and decided to contain it to a sing Challenger's Pack, so Namco didn't suck up too much of the budget. Surely, getting the licenses for eight third-parties for the playable roster alone would take up a bit of Nintendo's paycheck, and that's not going into the franchises with only minor representation as well.

Granted, I'm not an expert on this subject matter. Could be wrong

 

[NintenZ]

(expecting a ton of people to say his chances are somehow dead because of that silly rumor regarding the supposedly scrapped cartoon)

Wait what people are actually arguing this?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Wait what people are actually arguing this?

It's more the implications, but yeah.

 

[NintenZ]

It's more the implications, but yeah.

That’s so dumb lmfao

By that logic we can probably get rid of Snake and the Belmonts if we’re talking about cancelled media lol

 

[chocolatejr9]

That’s so dumb lmfao

By that logic we can probably get rid of Snake and the Belmonts if we’re talking about cancelled media lol

Well, I never said I AGREED with it, but it might be worth keeping a note on it, just to be safe. Nobody knows what happens in the bowels of Nintendo headquarters (or wherever negotiations are held)...

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Along with the many reasons laid out by other people, this is the reason I'm almost certain he's in. It was filed just around the time the second fighter pass was announced. And come on, if that's not a logo made for Smash, I don't know what is.

That trademark ended up being for the Tales of 25th anniversary promotion, like you mentioned. Maybe they just wanted to make a logo to use for the promotion. Not everything related to Smash.

 

[Inue Houji]

That trademark ended up being for the Tales of 25th anniversary promotion, like you mentioned. Maybe they just wanted to make a logo to use for the promotion. Not everything related to Smash.

Like you said, I already mentioned that in my post.
I don't think everything is related to Smash, I just find it odd that they suddenly decide to make a logo after 25 years, in the exact same format as the one used in Smash.
Note that this isn't the only reason I believe Lloyd/Tales is in, but I believe it's one of the more damning things.
The reason I don't mention anything else is because I struggle with writing cohesively, and other people have already said it better.

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain
Nominations: Peppino x5

 

[Louie G.]

RAYMAN

CHANCE - 8%
Man I wish I could give Rayman a better rating, but this is the most I can bring myself to give. At one point in time, Rayman seemed like such an obvious choice. He was very very popular during Smash 4, Nintendo and Ubisoft were tighter than ever and Rayman even worked his way into the game as a trophy. If you told me back in 2014-2015 that we were getting a sh*t ton of third parties next game I would have said with relative confidence that Rayman would probably be one of them. Well, as of now, he's not.

Nowadays, Rayman has largely fallen by the wayside. While it's unfortunate, there are two big reasons why I can't see Rayman making it. The first one is boring but it's significant - Japan just doesn't care about Rayman. The games have never been particularly successful there, unlike fellow western platforming icon Crash who cracked a million during the PS1 era. Rayman Legends was actually published by Nintendo in Japan, which is nice, but considering that was years ago now I don't know how much stake the company has in the series anymore. You could of course argue that Smash is a means of bringing attention toward lesser known icons - which is absolutely true. But I have a very difficult time seeing this happen for a western franchise vs a Japanese company like SNK - which, for the record, King of Fighters is not unsuccessful in the west, it's just more underground on account of it targeting a more competitive playerbase. Perhaps there's a very dedicated underground Rayman fan community in Japan, but I'm not aware of it.

The other point, and one that I know many of his supporters are frustrated to hear all the time, is that Ezio and Rabbid costumes have already released. I won't say that this is 100% a death sentence, but personally I find it hard to believe that they would drop not just Ubisoft costumes, but a hat from Rayman's Raving Rabbids if they had any plans of making Rayman a playable character in the following pass (which was already underway by Byleth's presentation). I know that Rabbids has pretty much become its own thing by now, but they still have very close ties to the man himself. Most companies that are brand new to the roster don't see their costumes appear until a fighter from that company is revealed. This may very well just be a pattern waiting to be broken, but until then I consider it a safe assumption that Ubisoft is not getting a character.

I will say though, if Ubisoft ever does get a character... it will be Rayman. That's clearly the one they want, it's the one that the fans have asked for specifically, and despite everything he's still the closest thing they have to a true legacy mascot. I find it hard to believe that Rayman would appear in both Smash 4 and Ultimate without a passing thought of "hey maybe we could add Rayman". It doesn't look to be a priority at the moment, but with some luck I feel Rayman could get his chance someday. I just think he's gotta wait a while.

WANT - 80%
Mainly because he's the longtime MW of a close friend of mine, but I would really like to see Rayman. Rayman Origins is one of the best platformers I've ever played, and his cartoony antics and unique mobility would make him insanely fun to fight as in Smash. He's one of those characters who just feels like a natural fit, and I hope to be wrong about everything I just said.

LLOYD

CHANCE - 15%
Alright I'll just be blunt about this one. I am pretty confident that Lloyd isn't happening.

Rayman and Lloyd actually have a similar issue in common here - the release of their company's Mii costumes making me very skeptical of their chances. While I'm aware they could definitely add more Tales and Namco costumes as they wish, I don't believe the slow trickle of Namco costumes during FP2 thus far does Lloyd any favors. This was the case for Capcom during FP1, but they've since abruptly stopped right before the MH costumes and moved toward Namco instead. From this I theorize that Capcom will see more content through FP2, but not Namco. But yknow, just a theory.

Still, Lloyd's fate hangs by a thread at this point. His costume is so dangerously close to showing up and I personally think he's next up on the chopping block whenever they need to throw another filler character in there. I'm sorry that I can't really say more about why I don't see Lloyd as very likely, but sometimes a hunch and a simple precedent is all it takes. Still, despite my confidence in this, I put him at 15% because Tales is still quite a big legacy series and Lloyd has been popular ever since Smash 4. It's also not impossible for them to simply add all new Namco content to Lloyd's (or any other Namco character's) Challenger Pack. There are enough series and characters to work with, or they can simply theme it around JRPGs. So there's room to work with here, but I don't think it's going to happen.

I also believe that Yuri provides sufficient competition for Lloyd (but has taken a major hit from the arrival of Sephiroth, IMO) and that Dark Souls has just as much of a chance (if not more) of being chosen as Namco's next franchise as Tales does. Namco has a lot of characters and series that Lloyd needs to compete with - unfortunately I don't believe any of them will happen, but the competition is there. Anyway, I'm just not seeing it.

WANT - 30%
I don't really care about Lloyd or Tales and would find the inclusion of Tales content very underwhelming. But it's not like, something I would be mad about. It's just pure unadulterated indifference. I don't hate this character but I don't like them either. I have little interest in Tales and there are other Namco characters I'd like to see over Lloyd. But he's ok.

ARURU

CHANCE - 30%
I could drone on for a long time assessing Arle's chances, but Ridrool has already done this and I feel there isn't all that much to say. I already wrote a long thing on Arle last time, which I'm honestly too lazy to dig up, but all the things in her favor are pretty much exactly the same. Puyo is a smash hit in Japan, from what I've heard it has the best brand recognition of any Sega series over there (source of that claim below). It's a big deal.

https://twitter.com/gosokkyu/status/1172369224280395776?s=20

Puyo 2 has an arcade legacy in Japan comparable to Street Fighter 2. Nintendo themselves have endorsed the series a number of times - most recently with the inclusion of Puyo 2 on NSO - and even attempted to bring it to the west as a Kirby reskin back in the 90s. Four Puyo games are available on Switch as we speak. The series is still alive and kicking, has been garnering a sizeable following in the west over the years, and just recently put out a sequel to one of its most successful games. I'll say this much, if we get another Sega character I would be pretty surprised if it wasn't Arle. She's the most obvious next step and as others have said it kind of just feels like her time.

This is all good stuff, but Arle is not without her shortcomings. Being a puzzle game character, I worry that Nintendo may not see the potential in her compared to more clear cut and exciting fighters. Puyo still does lack the presence here that it does in Japan, which isn't saying much considering how wildly successful it is there, but it's still finding its footing. I don't see this as much of an issue in and of itself since both Nintendo and Sega have been trying to push Puyo in the west for over twenty years now, so Smash would be a very easy opportunity for them to do so. And then there's also the very real possibility that Sega doesn't get another new character at all, which would put Arle out of luck.

It may not come as a surprise, but Arle is one of my most wanted characters. I've reeled in my expectations since last time, knocking her down a full 10% as there are less available opportunities for her to make it and I'd rather not get my hopes unreasonably high. I think Arle has a good amount in her favor, certainly enough to put her firmly in the realm of possibility. Historical value, relevance, popularity in Japan. But I'm pretty convinced Hayabusa is coming, and I'm pretty convinced we're getting a Capcom character, so this leaves one opening for Arle that I'm not entirely sure she'll be taking.

WANT - 100%
That said, I want her to make it more than anything right now. My dreams of Rhythm Heaven in Smash are all but shattered, but Arle gives me something to believe in again. Puyo is one of the most charming series I've ever had the pleasure of getting into and seeing it represented in Smash would make me so happy. Arle's moveset would be wacky as hell and that's exactly what I want to see. I'm a sucker for oddball characters and Arle fits the bill.

I've spent a lot of time through DLC being happy on behalf of others. I've found the value in nearly every new addition, even if it wasn't someone I had much experience or passion toward, because I saw others happy about it and I was well aware of their worth and impact in their own right. They've all managed to give me a lot of joy, secondhand or otherwise. But man, I'm really itching for a reveal that feels a bit more personal - a character and series where I'll watch the presentation intently and get all the references, have a big stupid smile on my face as I see one of my favorite games come to one of my other favorite games. It's been a long time since I got a character who feels like they cater directly to me (Little Mac). Arle would absolutely be that character for me.

PREDICTIONS:
Crash will be overrated to hell and back so I'll give him a 36.5%.
Tracer will be downplayed to hell and back so I'll give her a 12%.

NOMINATIONS:
BILLY AND JIMMY LEE x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

These are real "nothing changed for these characters" hours. I'm feeling particularly lazy today, but fortunately my ratings for Lloyd and Rayman hold up, and reach ten sentences with only minor modifications. Arle's requires rewriting since there's a lot of Yakuza talk, but her want stays the same.

Sonic is canon now

Chance: 10%
There have been contradictory reports about Arle's viability for fighting games, and I'm leaning toward disconfirmation, both because of the contents thereof and of potential NDA breaking. Aside from that, I'm not really feeling Sega for this Pass. It seems like the two characters they got after Sonic got in for very particular reasons and I'm not sure they'll be repeated. Puyo Puyo and Yakuza getting taken out is a bad omen. Plus with Sonic's anniversary and Shin Megami Tensei V's upcoming release I feel like those are the horses to bet on from their stable. Otherwise I think Arle would make a lot of sense for Smash and she's really popular.

Want: 0%
Normally I rate characters according to how much I feel they deserve it. I'm very enthusiastic about gaming history, so even on the unlikely event that I'm not familiar with a series or not particularly fond of it, it'll get a high score from me if it has a certain claim to fame.

Arle is the exception. I want Lip in Smash. And while I think there's room for both, I'm not about to risk Sakurai or Nintendo disagreeing, so let's get Lip in first just to be safe. Sorry Arle, but if it means anything, if Lip gets in your want score changes to 90%

This video is sponsored by Rayman

Chance: 11%
I don't think Rayman's getting in. Frankly, I think the reason he hasn't gotten in already is because Nintendo doesn't give a **** about Rayman. He isn't popular in Japan, he doesn't regularly get games released, there's not exactly an incentive for Nintendo to promote him. Hell, Ubisoft's only pushing him because he's the closest fit with Nintendo's stable of cartoony mascots, and therefore the likeliest to amass a Smash following (or at least, if we're playing by the Smash 4 rules of popularity). But make no mistake: Rayman is not Ubisoft's mascot, and they don't have much invested in him either. If Rayman's popularity was higher, I'd look at his odds better, but as it stands, there's plenty of other, more popular characters, many of which wouldn't even require licensing. Aside from that, he's arguably in a worse place than he was in Smash 4 and base game Ultimate, as he grows ever more irrelevant and is unlikely to get new games soon.

I'm the outlier here, but I think Ezio has much better odds as a Ubi rep.

Want: 50%
For his fans, but Rayman does nothing for me as a character. I like his games, especially the 3D ones. But he's... super bland, even for a platformer mascot.

If he's twice the swordfighter, is that better or worse for Smash fans?

Chance: 50%
Lloyd is by this point the obvious and absolute frontrunner for Bandai Namco, to the point where I'm confident in saying that he either gets in as a fighter or back as a Mii Costume and Bamco gets nothing. Heihachi proves that nobody's safe, and Bandai Namco forgetting they even have a character in Smash doesn't exactly bode well. But, really, any other character from the company is the underdog at best. Tales is one of the biggest JRPG series, especially in Japan, and we always get RPG characters. In comparison, Katamari and Soul Calibur are smaller series, and the other two we're rating today, well, see below. Much has been said about how we could potentially get another Tales character. I don't think so. Recently, the discourse has been turned into "Lloyd is Smash popular and Yuri is Tales popular", and that's just forgetting all the other things Lloyd has in his favor. He isn't just the one most popular with Smash fans, but with the overall mainstream audience; Symphonia is still the best selling game in the franchise. From the other JRPG protags we got in Smash, it's always the one from the best selling game - which, yeah, makes sense, as that's usually the one that has the biggest mainstream appeal. Lloyd also has the advantage of being seen as a Nintendo character, which led to years of support, probably a great placement in the Ballot, and eventually his Mii Costume and Sakurai's comment of "who else but Lloyd?". So, that's why I think Lloyd curbstomps Yuri in the chance department. Aside from him, Velvet's tenure as "the newest" is almost up, and I don't see Nintendo promoting Tales of Arise when it's not coming to Switch.

Want: 90%
Symphonia's a classic, and really that's all I need to support Lloyd. Every time we rate him reminds me of how I want to boot it up one more time, someday I surely will.

Noms: Marina x15 47 x15
Crash prediction: 66.21% (Given the regulars I expect a counter-backlash to the recent """"leak"""", so I think the bandicoot might see an all-time high)
Tracer prediction: 11.46%

This post is probably a formatting nightmare, I pity the idiot that's gonna have to read it for nominations

 

[Lionfranky]

Rayman

Chance: 1%
Ubisoft has been pretty close with Nintendo recently, as seen with the Mario + Rabbids game and the fact that Nintendo even published the Japanese version of Rayman Legends. Rayman is also a relatively well-known name in the West and even has had actual Smash content in the past via the SSB4 trophies and the base game spirit in Ultimate (which shouldn't really affect his chances now that we're in FP2). Sadly that's where I have to stop talking about the positives.

The Rayman series has not done well in Japan. From the little info that I could find (since Japan doesn't seem to talk about Rayman), the Rayman series as a whole has never really kicked off in Japan while Rayman 3 didn't release over there when it first launched. I'm unfamiliar with how PSN/Xbox Live in general work so I'm not sure if Japanese players could technically play Rayman 3 via the HD port years later, but the fact it didn't even release in Japan during the gaming generation that it was created should say a lot about the series over there. As for more recent news, both the initial release of Rayman Legends as well as the Switch remaster years later flopped hard in Japan. I think the Rabbids series has done better over there, but by now the Rabbids has become it's own thing similar to Persona branching off from Shin Megami Tensei to the point where a Rabbid could compete with Rayman.
...Comparing Rabbids to Persona was certainly not something I expected when starting this day...

If your series hasn't done well in Japan then I think that is a major blow to your chances. For base game? I could see Rayman having a shot since we've gotten characters like Little Mac before. When paid DLC is on the line in which most people will be purchasing the characters individually? Yeah I don't see Nintendo taking the risk when he isn't even popular in their own country. If Assassin's Creed - Ubisoft's biggest franchise that is super popular in Japan and just way more popular than Rayman in general - couldn't get a fighter then I don't have much hope for Rayman.

While I don't doubt AC is more popular than Rayman in Japan, what's sales of AC there? The article doesn't mention that. Also, Megaman got in while series like Resident Evil got shafted to spirit event. While 3.8 million out of 20 million sales for Ultimate is important, is that really number to be concerned when most sales come outside of Japan? I doubt Nintendo was concerned about Japan that much when they added Banjo. "Oh hey, Banjo sold 400k here in Japan during peak. Surely, rest of 3.4 millions would know Banjo!" I mean yeah, Japan is important, but considering ratio... I think people overestimate its importance.

 

[Sari]

While I don't doubt AC is more popular than Rayman in Japan, what's sales of AC there? The article doesn't mention that

I couldn't find an exact number for all of the series sales over there, but I found this article where the first Assassin's Creed made it into the top 10. Keep in mind this just for the Xbox 360 version as the PS3 version wasn't out at the time. Considering how Japan has always preferred Nintendo/Playstation over Xbox, it's actually really impressive for the 360 version to sell that high. Assassin's Creed Odyssey also had a good start on PS4.

Also, Megaman got in while series like Resident Evil got shafted to spirit event.

I get what you're saying though Mega Man has always been super popular on all sides of the globe and is easily just as recognizable as a Resident Evil character (possibly even moreso considering the legacy of his series).

I don't think exact series sales is the only thing that determines a character getting in, but it is definitely something that should be kept in mind. I even mentioned this in Lloyd's rating when I brought up Dark Souls.

I doubt Nintendo was concerned about Japan that much when they added Banjo. "Oh hey, Banjo sold 400k here in Japan during peak. Surely, rest of 3.4 millions would know Banjo!"

I mean Banjo has always been a popular request in Japan dating as far back as that one official Smash 64 poll. Again this is a much different case than Rayman who has yet to even get proper footing in Japan. Considering Rayman's history in Japan, I wouldn't be surprised if his entire series sales in Japan wasn't even a quarter of what Banjo sold over there.

 

[Lionfranky]

I get what you're saying though Mega Man has always been super popular on all sides of the globe and is easily just as recognizable as a Resident Evil character (possibly even moreso considering the legacy of his series).

How popular? We know that before inclusion, Megaman's game sales wasn't very good. Nowhere close to Resident Evil sales.

I mean Banjo has always been a popular request in Japan dating as far back as that one official Smash 64 poll. Again this is a much different case than Rayman who has yet to even get proper footing in Japan. Considering Rayman's history in Japan, I wouldn't be surprised if his entire series sales in Japan wasn't even a quarter of what Banjo sold over there.

How popular in Japan anyway? How long has that popularity kept up? I am not saying Rayman is popular in Japan or anything like that. Some newcomers rather had rapid sales decline of their games in Japan compared to peak. My point is current state of franchise shouldn't always be something that overshadow past glory. I'm not saying Rayman had his prime day in Japan though.

 

[fogbadge]

How popular? We know that before inclusion, Megaman's game sales wasn't very good. Nowhere close to Resident Evil sales.

well from my observations back in the brawl days he was the second most requested 3rd party character after sonic

 

[Lionfranky]

well from my observations back in the brawl days he was the second most requested 3rd party character after sonic

Sales=/=Number of requests that only handful of peopel votes in the entire playerbase.
I feel people get disconnected when people bring sales figures.
"Oh hey, they are not doing well in Japan most recently! So, they are unlikely!"
"But, few hundreds, thousands votes reflect millions of players!"
Not saying ballot was meaningless or anything like that. It's just that when people go back and forth on sales and votes, I feel double standard.
Sorry if I sound mean.

 

[fogbadge]

Sales=/=Number of requests that only handful of peopel votes in the entire playerbase.
I feel people get disconnected when people bring sales figures.
"Oh hey, they are not doing well in Japan most recently! So, they are unlikely!"
"But, few hundreds, thousands votes reflect millions of players!"
Not saying ballot was meaningless or anything like that. It's just that when people go back and forth on sales and votes, I feel double standard.
Sorry if I sound mean.

this was before the ballot

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sales=/=Number of requests that only handful of peopel votes in the entire playerbase.
I feel people get disconnected when people bring sales figures.
"Oh hey, they are not doing well in Japan most recently! So, they are unlikely!"
"But, few hundreds, thousands votes reflect millions of players!"
Not saying ballot was meaningless or anything like that. It's just that when people go back and forth on sales and votes, I feel double standard.
Sorry if I sound mean.

I mean, Megaman was widely the most requested third party for Sm4sh, and arguably the most requested character. This was obviously pre ballot since the ballot came after Megaman got in. If you go back to popularity polls even pre brawl, Megaman dominated. Once Sm4sh started to become a reality in people’s minds around 2012, Megaman was arguably the clear front runner in terms of fan polls. The other super popular requests at the time were Ridley, K Rool, Little Mac, Palutena, Shulk, and Isaac.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I have no opinions on any of these characters. Though at this point, I think Lloyd's Mii costume coming back is a safe bet.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

While I don't doubt AC is more popular than Rayman in Japan, what's sales of AC there? The article doesn't mention that. Also, Megaman got in while series like Resident Evil got shafted to spirit event. While 3.8 million out of 20 million sales for Ultimate is important, is that really number to be concerned when most sales come outside of Japan? I doubt Nintendo was concerned about Japan that much when they added Banjo. "Oh hey, Banjo sold 400k here in Japan during peak. Surely, rest of 3.4 millions would know Banjo!" I mean yeah, Japan is important, but considering ratio... I think people overestimate its importance.

Well if sales and popularity in Japan don't matter much, you're left with the Western world where Assassin's Creed has sold over 100 million copies, is a guaranteed best-seller for every release, and gets Hollywood movies and Netflix TV shows. It still beats Rayman in every regard save for seniority and ballot popularity.

How popular? We know that before inclusion, Megaman's game sales wasn't very good. Nowhere close to Resident Evil sales

Your standards for good sales numbers are very flawed if Resident Evil is your standard. Mega Man is still Capcom's 4th biggest franchise, even after years of dormancy while its other IPs get major titles. That's nothing to sneeze at. In fact, at the time that Mega Man got in it was bigger than Monster Hunter.

 

[SharkLord]

Your standards for good sales numbers are very flawed if Resident Evil is your standard. Mega Man is still Capcom's 4th biggest franchise, even after years of dormancy while its other IPs get major titles. That's nothing to sneeze at. In fact, at the time that Mega Man got in it was bigger than Monster Hunter.

Y'know, with how much we talk about it as one of Capcom's big moneymakers it's easy to forget that Monster Hunter only hit it big in the age of the PlayStation Portable.

 

[SilverSoul24]

Everybody Loves Rayman (Except Sakurai)
Chance: 10%
I don't think Rayman is happening. The amount of Ubisoft content in Ultimate, from base game spirits to DLC Mii costumes, seems like it would have come with a fighter if they were going to get one. As far as I'm concerned, if Ubisoft were to get a fighter, it would have to be Rayman. He's their mascot after all, but he's not exactly relevant. He missed the boat on the recent platformer renaissance enjoyed by Mario, Sonic, and Crash, and Ubisoft doesn't seem like they really want to push him. Nintendo, of course, has even less incentive to include him when they have so many other properties (first and third party) to promote. It doesn't help that his series isn't very popular in Japan. He's got a huge legacy, one that includes Nintendo hardware, but Rayman just seems like he would rank pretty low on the totem pole right now. Not saying that Rayman could never happen in a future Smash title, but his chances for Ultimate seem pretty low. Not impossible, but very unlikely.
Want: 30%
I wouldn't be opposed to Rayman. As far as new mascot platformer characters go, he's definitely my least wanted. I'd still prefer to see Crash or Spyro, but I wouldn't be upset if Rayman showed up in FP2. I've only played one of his games, Rayman 2, waaaay back in the day on the N64, and I had a fun enough time with it. Rayman's reveal would be met with a resounding "meh" from me. I wouldn't lose sleep over it, though. He's not a character that would excite me but, since he's got enough legacy content and fan demand to warrant a Smash inclusion, I wouldn't mind seeing him.

Christopher Lloyd
Chance: 25%
I ranked Lloyd among my most overrated newcomers last year, and since my stance hasn't changed very much. I'll just quote myself below on why I don't think he's as likely as so many others seem to. The only thing I'll add is that since we've seen a continued trend of Smash 4 Mii Costumes returning as DLC, I think that Lloyd is even less likely now. Definitely not impossible though, especially considering the recent Tales Of 25th anniversary.

• Lloyd is popular, undeniably, as is the Tales series. He has a history with Nintendo too, but I really just don't see him being picked over a rep from the more recent Tales games. It seems to me that Lloyd has remained as popular in Smash speculation as he is purely because of his game's debut on the Gamecube, which gave many Nintendo fans their first exposure to the Tales series. That's huge, of course, but it's completely ignoring other factors. If a Tale character is coming to Smash, why would Namco want to push a character from 2003? Especially when a new entry is slated to launch next year that they would absolutely want to promote. And that's assuming they don't want to push another series like Tekken or Soul Calibur. Again, I wouldn't be upset to see Lloyd in Smash. His fans have been extremely devoted, and I sympathize with their frustrations surrounding his Mii costume in Smash 4 (which is conspicuously missing in Ultimate, I admit). I just think his chances have been extremely overblown by his base.

Want: 5%
I'm gonna be blunt, Lloyd is in direct competition with my most wanted newcomer (KOS-MOS) so he ranks very low for me. It doesn't help that I've never played a Tales Of game. It's odd considering how much of an RPG junkie I am, but it's one of those series that I just never got around to. I have no interest in picking up his game anytime soon, I think a lot of the arguments in his favor are pretty myopic, he would inevitably lead to more "aNiMe SwOrDsMaN bAd" backlash coming after Sephiroth... Need I go on? And while I'm sure his moveset potential is there, Lloyd himself does nothing for me in the context of Smash. I've said it before and I'll say it again, KOS-MOS brings so much more to the table as a Namco RPG newcomer, and I'm absolutely willing to die on that hill. I'm only not giving him a zero because his fans have been very dedicated, so it would be cool to see them happy. Also, he hails from a universe that isn't currently in Smash, so I'd much rather see Lloyd than yet another Mario, Pokemon, or Fire Emblem character. But if it were up to me, I'd give Lloyd a hard pass.

Dr. Robotnik's REAL Bean Machine
Chance: 30%
Arle's chances are kinda hard to rate. We've been given contradictory information on whether or not Sega would include her, so for all we know, the Puyo Puyo devs might not want her in Smash even if an offer was on the table. It doesn't help that she's got heavy competition as a potential Sega newcomer. Arle is hardly the most requested fighter from her company, and who knows if Sega will even get another slot in the second fighter's pass. However, Arle's series is crazy popular in Japan, and has even made recent strides here in the west thanks to the Puyo Puyo Tetris games coming to several platforms. Arle is weird because, while she isn't exactly obscure, she's far from an icon. She's not likely, but I wouldn't rule her out completely.
Want: 60%
Even though my only experience with her series comes from a reskinned westernized title, I really like Puyo Puyo as a puzzle game. I hope to pick up Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 sometime soon on the Switch. I think that the puzzle genre is long overdue for a true fighter rep in Smash (sorry Dr. Mario...) and Arle would be a perfect fit. Not really much more to say. She's far from my most wanted, but seeing her revealed would make me pretty excited. She has so much moveset potential if they go all in on puzzle-inspired mechanics, and she would likely come with a dope stage. I love Puyo Puyo's entire aesthetic, and since all of it jives so well with what already exists in Smash, Arle's inclusion would be pretty cool.