Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

hes definatly not scottish despite what that alt would have you think

 

[Jomosensual]

RIP Travis and Bomberman

 

[Ridrool64]

Well besides Minecraft mobs, which are DLC stage elements/Spirits (on top of Creeper and Pig getting costumes), we have three new confirmed deaths today.

Gil from the Tower of Druaga, Bomberman (if you didn't think he was already toast), and the big upset of the pass, Travis Touchdown is down for the count. All of them were flayed by the Mii's.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

RIP Travis Touchdown. Surprised Master Chief wasn't massacred with him.

 

[Ridrool64]

No lie, I was absolutely expecting Chief to be formally decommissioned with a costume. Dunno why they didn't do it, IIRC there are no Gunner costumes in this pack at all.

He's still technically alive, but I think the reaper claimed him two days ago anyway. This was just the confirmation that never came.

 

[DaUsername]

RIP Travis and Bomberman

Bomberman was already dead for 2 years.

 

[Ridrool64]

I'm pretty sure both Bomberman and Travis were rated, but did we ever rate Gil?

 

[Sari]

Ok so my takeaways from the Steve Presentation on other character's chances:

Safe:

• Indies (Quote, Shantae, Reimu) - Sakurai didn't really talk about Minecraft being an indie plus we didn't get any indie Mii Costumes. If there's a character meant to represent the indie genre, then Steve wasn't it. While indies are far from frontrunners I don't think they're out just yet.
• Master Chief - Almost everyone thought he'd be Mii Costume'd but it didn't happen. Personally I doubt he's gonna happen with us having 2 Microsoft reps already, but then again stranger things have happened. Maybe they're saving him for something?

In trouble:

• Assist Trophy promotions - Bomberman got an amazing Mii Costume that seemingly borrows from his AT model. I feel like that might be a thing going forward which hurts this already unlikely concept.
• Third-party promotional characters - Travis was one of the frontrunners for this and he got shot down just like that. The same might happen to characters with upcoming Switch games like Demi-fiend and Monster Hunter. Speaking of Monster Hunter...
• Characters that were Mii Costumes in SSB4 - With Gil returning we have 5 costumes based off game characters still MIA, those being Lloyd, Geno, Chocobo hat, and 2 Monster Hunter costumes. At the rate things are going we might get all of them with each character, with the MH ones being released at the same time like the Virtua fighter ones when Terry released.

I'm pretty sure both Bomberman and Travis were rated, but did we ever rate Gil?

I searched the thread of all the times the phrase "Gil" was used but all I could find were mentions of the Mii Costume.

 

[Lyncario]

F for Travis, that Mii disconfirmation came out of nowhere, and while he wasn't one of my personal most wanted, he was the most wanted of one of my friend, so that's sad.

Otherwise, Steve looks really cool to play.

 

[amageish]

Steve's moveset is super complicated, but I am amazed by the dedication to making Minecraft function in Smash. It seems like Steve truly is the Hero of this pass in all of the best and worst ways - 4 main alts, a controversially-accurate-to-the-base-game moveset, a smaller pool of music, etc. etc.

Though having 6/7 songs being remixes definitely softens the smaller-muisc-pool blow. It's also just nice to see they're willing to pull from spin-off games too as I believe only SNK has left the mainline games for DLC franchises thus far...

 

[Mr. MR]

I'm not going to change my satisfaction score on my post before (because that represents what I thought right after the announcement) but now my satisfaction for Steve is up to 80%~
Though his edgeguarding looks busted...

Characters that were Mii Costumes in SSB4 - With Gil returning we have 5 costumes based off game characters still MIA, those being Lloyd, Geno, Chocobo hat, and 2 Monster Hunter costumes. At the rate things are going we might get all of them with each character, with the MH ones being released at the same time like the Virtua fighter ones when Terry released.

Even if we got a Rathalos armor mii costume I still wouldn't count it as a deconfirm. MH is a special case where wearing the monster is such a general part of the game. For now, I think if we did get a Monster Hunter as playabe, he could use the default ninja-like Rise armor or even a menagerie of monster armors.

 

[YoshiandToad]

RIP Bomberman? Are you kidding me?

This is the best outcome us Bomberman fans could hope for with the AT disconfirming him two years back! That Mii outfit looks great AND it comes in a multitude of colours?!?

This is my Sans/Cuphead moment where the Mii mascot outfit outdid the fighter...

... although for the record I do really like Steve here. It's just that Mii outfit is of one of my childhood faves and it's gorgeous.

 

[fogbadge]

so thats the second time we've had square kirby

 

[GoodGrief741]

Glad that someone else remembers BoxBoy!

 

[Mr. MR]

Cube Kirby reminds me of Meat Boy for some reason

 

[SharkLord]

80% satisfied.
The Blockmeisters Themselves
Steve as a character is cursed in the best ways possible. He looks like he might be busted for a few weeks until he gets nerfed and/or we start figuring out his weaknesses, but he's all we're going to be playing anyways, so it all evens out. I wish the item gauge was implemented a bit more smoothly, but eh. At the very least, I'm glad the crafting was streamlined to "Craft the highest-tier tools available all at once" instead of something screwy and chaotic like "You have a million different things you could possibly craft at one time." My idea for Steve was to frick around with various Minecraft blocks liek doors and junk, but this is better. Kinda bummed that we don't have any songs from the original Minecraft, but the fact that they're basically awesome original songs to me softens the blow. Arch-Illager's theme sounds perfect for Final Destination.

Gee, Bomberman, how come you get actual alt colors?
Mashing F for Travis and his fans and clutching the cross tightly for Creeper and Pig. Those... things were not meant to be, and that's why I'm putting Sans' head onto them.
While it didn't occur with me at first, I now realize that Bomberman's the PreMiium of the pass. Sure, he doesn't have a song, but having actual alternate colors for once is enough to make me sing one for him. Anyways, Travis is someone I will use as an reminder that just because someone has stuff going for them doesn't mean we should jump to conclusions. Stuff like this makes me glad that my most-wanteds are fairly under the radar.

Gil from Tower of Druaga found dead in a back-alley in Miami (Or wherever it is you find dead people). More at 11.
And so continues the return of the Smash 4 Miis. I see two potential timelines; One where we get a slow stream of returning Miis only for one to return at the end, or one where they all stay in their graves. My first reaction is to suggest Geno, due to his popularity and the fact that he'd either have to come during the anniversary or at the end of the pass, but after Travis... Yeah. I'm hesitant to board the hype train for oft-discussed characters who seemingly have everything lining up for them, because Nintendo and Sakurai just seem to operate on different wavelengths as the fandom.

Assist Trophies... Still don't have a definitive answer
Yeah, I'm still supporting these guys. Twice now, Sakurai has passed over the opportunity to reaffirm the deaths of Assist Trophies in the new context of FP2, leaving us to scramble around and fill in the gaps. The way I see it, Bomberman could be taken both ways. On one hand, they take a fair bit from the AT, but to me, it feels less like "Bomberman can't be an actual fighter, so he's a Mii!" and more like "Bomberman can now be an Assist Trophy and Mii Fighter at the same time!"
Seeing as Sakurai sees Miis as a way to feel like the fighter's in Smash even if they're not on the roster, I don't think he's too worried about the ATs when choosing fighters. The problem is, there just aren't many ATs that have a feasible chance as a character, a number that gets even smaller when you take into account the content they'd need to bring with them. The only ATs that could fit those guidelines are Isaac, Shovel Knight, Akira, Bomberman, Zero, and maybe Waluigi if you stretch it, and half of them have already been skinned to be used as Mii Costumes. Only two or three viable candidates aren't much, especially in the expanded scope of Ultimate. Bottom line, I don't see it as a matter of "Can it happen?" so much as a matter of "Will it happen?"

Indie Victory!
While Steve may not be an indie anymore, he's still an indie in spirit and I count that as a victory for them. I also count it as a victory for other indies that they weren't mentioned at all in Steve's presentation, be it for Minecraft itself or for the Miis. Indie supporters can rest easy for now.
My personal thoughts on indies are similar to ATs; They could happen, but there's only a handful that have a decently-feasible chance, and with so many possible outcomes for FP2, the overall chance becomes pretty low.

 

[fogbadge]

Glad that someone else remembers BoxBoy!

he stole qbby's kirby hat

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

I said we would have a fixed schedule... of one day. I figured since we rarely did this before, post your remaining FP2 predictions, gun to your head. Obviously we wont all be perfect, but it will be fun.

Here is how noms will work. Write a short paragraph of 5 sentences per each character. You can get up to 20 noms. Sell everyone on your pass.

I will do mine shortly.

 

[Jomosensual]

Day over

I said we would have a fixed schedule... of one day. I figured since we rarely did this before, post your remaining FP2 predictions, gun to your head. Obviously we wont all be perfect, but it will be fun.

Here is how noms will work. Write a short paragraph of 5 sentences per each character. You can get up to 20 noms. Sell everyone on your pass.

I will do mine shortly.

Do you want these in order or just 4 predictions in general?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

My predictions.

78: Ryu Hayabusa
79: Cinderace
80: Master Chief
81: Rex

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Here is mine.

Rex: Sorry Calamitas and Cutie Gwen . I personally am not a big fan of Rex as a character, tbh the only reason I personally want him is the Xenoblade Series needs more music. But right now, he is one of the two characters I am truly confident in. The DLC first party characters that we have got so far, Byleth and Min Min, both seem to suggest that there is a clear favoritism for Switch related first party content. Heck, in the base game, the only new stages we got from first parties were ones that got games on the switch in year one. I feel Nintendo clearly wants to cement Ultimate as the Switch smash. Sakurai also seems to have a soft spot for Rex. He needed to excuse the fact he was not in the game with a free Mii costume for pre ordering FP1. Since we know FP1 was still being worked on when the game was going gold, I doubt this would effect future dlc any more than a base game spirit. The interview about ARMS and Rex as well is another weird point that I think benefits Rex. To me, this seems like the biggest no brainer choice out there.

Crash: Full disclosure, unlike Rex I actually would put this as my most wanted realistic (>25% chance) newcomer, so I am a bit biased here. But I will say it, the stars look good for Crash. The N Sane Trilogy has basically helped kickstart a ton of retro revivals and collections the same way that it kickstarted Crash's revival. It sold really well and brought Crash into the limelight. He shows no signs of slowing with CTR NF and Crash 4 all coming out as well, and he even revived Spyro too for good measure. So Crash is new hotness right now, but all the existing boons he has are still very relevant. He was Sony's mascot. I can not stress how much of a big deal being the PS1's mascot is to helping your case. Even to this day people still sometimes say that he is owned by Sony, that is how much Crash is associated with that (even if he has been buddy buddy with Nintendo). Crash also sidesteps the biggest hurdle Western characters face: Japanese popularity. Crash is actually relatively popular in Japan, both back in the old days and now. Having a built in Japanese fanbase is always a boon. Activision also is super friendly with Nintendo, be it having DK and Bowser in Skylanders or supporting Nintendo with third party games. So, we have a character that is super popular (look at most fan polls), is relevant right now and historically, and has a company that is friendly with Nintendo. I would also argue that Nintendo choosing the characters helps Crash too, as I would not be surprised if he was on their shortlist of newcomers. While I am not as confident in him as Rex, I would say that I am still confident in Crash overall.

Ryu Hayabusa: From this point onward, I am less confident in my choices. If you asked me again in a week if this would be my FP2, I might not say that the next two characters are in. But I think right now I feel reasonably confident in Hayabusa. Koei Tecmo is the friendliest company with Nintendo. Be it Warriors collabs or helping on games, Tecmo is doing good with Nintendo. Now there is the possibility of DoA getting considered, but given Smash's recent apprehension towards even mentioning M rated franchises, I am not as sold as that overall. Hayabusa has one big leg up and that is that it is a classic NES franchise that still gets games today. While Ninja Gaiden is not the biggest franchise, it is one of those NES longrunners like Castlevania. I guess for me, it is that right now I am going the path of least resistance. Hayabusa has been a name tossed around for a while, and even Vergeben is looking into it and thinks it makes sense. While I am not personally as confident in this one, I could see it happening.

Geno: As most of you know, I am not the biggest Geno fan. If this was my fan pass, it would have been Crash, Neku, Dante, and Heavy. But this is what I predict, and I genuinely could see Nintendo pushing Geno as the final character if this is the last pass. Geno is an anomaly because his chances are tied to the fact he has been speculated on for ages for Smash. Sakurai is clearly a fan of the character as well. Now, just because a character is popular in speculation does not mean they are a lock, look at Isaac in this game or Ridley in every other game. But with Ultimate's theme of having fan favorites, this is Geno's best shot he has ever had. I guess for me the last slot is my wild card slot, something spicy of sorts that would catch people off guard or hype them. I think Geno does this job relatively well. Even if I am not a fan of him, and his fans can be... difficult to deal with, I would put him as something I could see happening.


Concept: Crash as Coco's echo x 20

Do you want these in order or just 4 predictions in general?

Whatever works, I did not order mine, but if you want to order yours its all good.

Here is the daily shilling of the RTC discord. Come hop in. It is fun here, we have off topic smash stuff and its a good time.

 

[BowserKing]

My predictions of the second fighter’s pass.

Prediction 1: Shantae. With a new game available, Shantae would be a great choice of a promotional fighter. Her popularity managed to make her franchise stay with a few games to add to it. Also since Min-Min got promoted to playable, her chance of getting in has increased quite a bit. Overall, Shantae’s inclusion would be a great way to promote the franchisd. Also Shantae is my most wanted Indie Rep, so that would be a bonus.

Prediction 2: a Pokémon. First choice is Lugia. For starters, it’s been a very long time sence we had a new Legendary Pokémon in smash, and Lugia would be a great choice to represent Legendaries. Outside that, I feel like Generation 2 needs more representation in Smash, so Lugia would be a great choice. I think the main reasons Lugia didn’t not get in before is because of size, but since Ridley got in, that should not be an issue. Overall, Lugia has potential to be a fighter, and despite being a Pokeball Pokémon, I think Lugia has a chance. My second choice is Dragapult. It was between that Pokémon and Frosmoth, and ultimately I choose Dragapult, for multiple reasons, including it’s deadly abilities. We also need another prehistoric based fighter in smash, in which Dragapult fits. Overall, Dragapult would be one of the best choices for a Sword/Shield Rep.

Prediction 3: Adeleine. I’m honestly surprised that Adeleine is not even in this game, not even as a spirit. Adeleine’s inclusion would give us a Kirby rep we had not had in a very long time. Adeleine would have unique abilities with her paint, which we need in Smash Bros. Her appearance in Kirby: Star Allies has increased her chance in Smash Bros as well. Overall, Adeleine would make a great fighter for Smash.

Prediction 4: Geno. I believe that Geno should be the Final Fighter in the second Fighter’s pass, so it will end in a bang. Given that many things deemed impossible happened in Smash, Geno’s Inclusion should be one of those things. While I prefer it if Fawful got in first, Geno’s inclusion would be worth the wait. Overall, Geno would make a fun choice as a Smash Bros rep. It was a bit difficult choice, but the choices are made. FWI, Sylux was considered, but he is cut from my predictions.

 

[Perkilator]

FP2 Predictions (in no particular order):

WARNING: Potentially controversial predictions inbound


Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars series)
Far from the most likely SEGA rep, but let’s not count her out for not being as big as SEGA’s other IPs. Sakura Wars is pretty damn big in Japan, and has stayed popular since the first game (which is a Saturn bestseller) came out. It spawned four sequels and a soft reboot, several spin offs and adaptations, and even several stage plays (heck, it even got an adaptation of the first game on the GBC, making Sakura the first SEGA character to appear on a Nintendo platform). Characters from the series also appeared in both Project X Zone games, as well. I’m not insisting she’s super likely (considering her competition), but she’s far from impossible.


Crash Bandicoot
I mainly just want Crash so we can see them clash once again. It’s not like he’s in any kind of bad spot; his popularity just skyrocketed after the N. Sane Trilogy, for one thing. I became a fan through the N. Sane Trilogy when it was new, and I fell in love with the bandicoot after being vaguely familiar with him as a kid.

…I’m trying to think of the right ways to word any further thoughts, but whatever. I just want Cash Banooca, that’s all.


Euden (Dragalia Lost)
Hear me out (or rather, read me out) before ranting about how he’s a character from a mobile game. Dragalia Lost is a game I genuinely enjoyed and had fun with. Not just as a mobile game (what other mobile game gives you gacha materials simply for watching a cutscene?), but as a game Nintendo wanted to experiment around with. Euden has potential for a fun moveset with his ability to transform into a dragon and wreak havoc as such. And the music; my lord, the MUSIC is some of the best I’ve listened to. Dragalia Lost is a pretty successful Nintendo mobile game as well, having scored $50 million USD by the end of 2018, so Vol. 2 might be a good way to promote it.

Only real challenge is that Dragalia Lost has never been released in EU, so maybe that can be rectified by a potential Switch port.


Any Gen 8 Pokémon
I know this might be controversial, but I personally think a Gen 8 mon is likely despite the Spirit Event that happened last November (and during Vol. 1). I enjoyed my time with Pokémon Sword, and I loved the new Pokémon I made friends with. I’ll be happy with any, but I‘d especially be hyped to see any one of:

• The Scorbunny line
• Toxtricity
• Sirfetch’d
• Zacian

I know this Gen wasn’t many people’s cups of tea, but I’m not predicting this one out of “hurr, Shillmon” or anything. I’m predicting it out of my genuine enjoyment for Sword.

Honorable mentions

• Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
• Chosen Undead (Dark Souls)
• Bandana Dee (Kirby)
• A character from the Luigi’s Mansion series

Noms:
Sakura Shinguji x20

 

[Sari]

Fighter Pass 2 Predictions

Ranked from most to least likely in my opinion:

• Rex - The character I'm the most confident in. Has just about everything going for him ranging from popularity to being in a rising series to even Sakurai apologizing for his Mii Costume. If Rex doesn't make it into Ultimate I will be genuinely shocked.
• Crash - One of the most popular Smash requests right now and had a successful revival that even prompted other remakes of classics like Super Mario 3D All-Stars. Could easily be another character to bring outside attention to the pass like Steve did.
• Ryu Hayabusa - Koei Tecmo has been super close with Nintendo for at least the past decade or so. They put Metroid content in the 3DS DoA game, made numerous Dynasty Warrior spin-offs with them (like FE Warriors and the upcoming Age of Calamity), helped with the various Smash trailers, and more. Hayabusa himself has a ton of legacy with Ninja Gaiden being one of the most memorable NES games without any content in Ultimate yet. He's one of those characters that just doesn't really have anything going against him and makes a ton of sense.
• Gen VIII Pokemon - Definitely one of the most overlooked possibilities. Regardless of what you think of Sword/Shield, the game was super successful to the point where it's the best selling game in the series since Gold/Silver. For it to not get any major form of content outside of the launch day spirit event just feels so weird. We know that Steve was primarily a choice by Nintendo so I feel like they could have decided on adding a new Pokemon to shill as well since they knew Gen VIII would be a hit. The main thing holding me from being more confident in this is the spirit event, but I feel like that could be an exception as it was mainly a promotional thing and there are still a ton of spirit candidates to choose from. Also I can't help but shake this feeling that a Gen VII Pokemon is a thing that a lot of people are dreading which will eventually happen, similar to Byleth and Steve to a certain extent.
  • Now as for which Pokemon would get in, I'd say it's a tie between Cinderace and Rillaboom. Slightly leaning towards Rillaboom since it feels like a Pokemon Sakurai could have more fun creating similar to what he did with Incineroar.

Honorable mentions: Lloyd, Monster Hunter, Geno, Waluigi, a Capcom character
Each has their own things going for them. However the first three I'm not as confident as before since I'm starting to believe the returning costume theory.

-----

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW Universe) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

This really is gun to my head because I don't wanna miss out on noms when I'm this close to getting mine on the top seven. Damn you TCT!

Ah well, here goes.

Rex: the only one I'd bet on. Rex hasn't ceased to be the protagonist from the most successful Xenoblade game, also the most recent one. He's extremely popular, to the point where Sakurai felt the need to apologize for his exclusion. With Min Min and Steve proving they have been looking at old ideas, Rex really benefits. And he'd also fit with the pattern of very complex movesets that has defined this Pass so far.

Ryu Hayabusa: a character I was incredibly confident, when all his pros were at their peak. A gaming icon, from the days of the NES all the way to his modern character action masterpieces. He has no shortage of moveset potential, and his speed, strange jumps and wall hopping should make for a very interesting and unique fighter. He definitely feels like the next in line after Mega Man and Simon. Plus, all the rumors about his inclusion, including those from the lord himself Vergeben, have been brought back with the addition of the ever-elusive Minecraft content.

Now this is the part where I start to wing it to get extra noms. You probably won't be seeing me express such confidence in these characters anytime soon. Travis would have made this list for sure but, well...

Bandana Dee: this boy is also incredibly popular, especially in Japan. We all know that Kirby's getting a new game sooner rather than later given the rate of development. And from teases and hints, it would appear that it's going to be Kirby's long awaited first foray into 3D. So what better way to promote it than to feature the Dee himself as a fighter? Honestly Dee's long overdue for Smash and with his unorthodox shape and reach he'd make a very unique fighter.

Now I'm still of the belief that we'll only be getting 2 third party characters in the Pass, so with Steve already on lock we only have one left. But there isn't another first party candidate that I feel is that much of a frontrunner as Rex and Dee, just several I think have good chances (think Waluigi, Isaac, Dixie, Chorus Kids and others that I won't mention because they're frankly ridiculous - consider these my honorable mentions). Officer Howard, Ring Fit Trainee, and a Gen 8 Pokemon would be here but, you know the drill. If Nintendo reveals a big new IP to release before December 2021, its protagonist will take this place.

Sora: I wish I was actually confident in Sora getting in, but it kinda makes sense with my current mindset. This Pass spans 2 E3s, so how can they match, if not top, the biggest game ever? Well, Kratos, but on the more realistic spectrum, how about the keyblade wielder who's fought alongside Mickey Mouse, Stitch, Elsa, Simba, and many more? Bring the mouse into Smash and watch the money roll in. And Sora definitely reaches the levels of complexity that the others in this pass have achieved with his combo-weavy skillsets, crazy ways of transversal and tons of transformations and flashy moves. Honestly, the reason I put him in is because I think it's likely that a Square Enix character has to get in for Geno's Mii Costume to return, and he was the easy first pick.

Honorable mentions go to Dovahkiin and Ezio.

So uh yeah my actual prediction is Rex, Hayabusa, and two other first parties. But this way I get 20 noms to Jason & SOPHIA.

Also since I didn't watch the presentation I forgot to do the disconfirmations for the Miis.

The pig didn't have any ratings. Neither did Gil, who I was hoping to nominate soon.

Creeper
3.07% Chance - 10.39% Want

Bomberman
9.94% Chance - 64.25% Want (first rating)
4.16% Chance - 55.00% Want (second rating)
7.50% Chance - 62.14% Want (third rating)
Voted 19th most underrated.

Travis Touchdown
12.88% Chance - 43.00% Want (first rating)
45.28% Chance - 62.86% Want (second rating)
43.45% Chance - 55.00% Want (third rating)
Voted 31st most overrated.

 

[Garteam]

Here's my set:

Geno: In both Smash for's DLC and the first Fighter's Pass, we had an oddly specific character archetype present. One of the characters was a relatively obscure third party that had been a popular request among the core fanbase and had a direct connection to Nintendo. For Smash for, this character was Bayonetta. For Fighter Pass #1, it was Banjo and Kazooie. I think we'll see the same thing happen in this Fighter's Pass, and (with Travis deconfirmed) there's really only one character who fits this niche to a tee: Geno. Sakurai likes him, he has a very vocal fanbase, his Mii costume is still missing, and the before mentioned Mii costume shows that Square-Enix is willing to play with the doll if Sakurai wants to.

Bandana Waddle Dee: Bandana Waddle Dee is one of those characters that really seems to have everything going for him. A rising star who has major appearances in his home series and a bright future ahead of him? Check. Popularity both in his home series and in Smash? Check. A ton of moveset potential? Check. Hell, even the complaints that he wouldn't bring enough new content for spirits was addressed by Min Min reusing some of the base game ARMS spirits. Really, Bandana Waddle Dee's biggest question is why it hasn't happened yet.

Ryu Hayabusa: Similar to Bandana Waddle Dee, Ryu Hayabusa just has a ton going for him. Koei Tecmo and Nintendo seem to get closer every single day, there are rumblings of Ninja Gaiden coming back from the dead, his unique movements and weapons would make him an excellent character, and he's an icon from the NES era. I honestly don't have a ton to say about Mr. Hayabusa, it just feels like the stars are aligning for him.

2021 Character: I'm going to cheat and leave a spot for a character from a game released in 2021. Sakurai's done this twice already with Smash's DLC and I don't really see that changing now. Nintendo gets some free promotion, Sakurai gets to put a spotlight on a game that may not have it otherwise, and new fans brought into the series by this title get to see it in Smash. It's a win all around.If I had to put a name to this spot, It'd either by Monster Hunter or BotW Zelda. Both have pros and cons, but I still think they could work. Of course, there's likely some options we aren't aware of yet that could fill this slot as well.

Honourable mentions:

• Rex
• Crash
• Gen VIII Pokemon
• Lloyd

 

[DanganZilla5]

This **** is hard to predict but that's the fun of it.

Before I get into my top 4 characters, I will say that I do have a hunch we'll get an even amount of first and third party characters (3 first party and 3 third parties). I don't got much to back this up, but the fact that the pass started with a first party then a third party says something when the first pass started with 2 third party characters then it ended up getting mostly filled with third party characters. So I will make this list based on this assumption.

Rex - He is the most likely character in my eyes. He is the only character I give a 80% chance score to. If I had to bet my life on one character, it would be Rex. He is in the best spot you could be in: First party, Nintendo is still advertising Xenoblade 2, the game is a popular and noteworthy game for the Switch, Rex is highly requested, and Sakurai himself acknowledged him and made a big deal out of his Mii costume (Which doesn't deconfirm him as it's not a separate purchase). And don't forget Sakurai explicitly mentioned ARMS and Xenoblade 2 as the two games that got screwed over due to poor timing, so it's a big deal that the former now has a fighter. While he is still not a lock by any means, I would be shocked if he doesn't make it in.

Crash - I feel this is a safe prediction. He is iconic, a platforming mascot, popular in both the west and Japan, has Nintendo history, is in the middle of a successful revival, and fits right in with Smash. I think it's safe to say we might get another western character and another big third party character. If that's true, then I think Crash has a solid chance. Some people point out that Crash 4 didn't come to Switch on day one, but I don't think it's that big of a deal. Persona 5 still isn't on Switch and King of Fighters 14 isn't on Switch. So I'm fully on the Crash boat.

Arle Nadja - I was really thinking about other characters like Phoenix, Monster Hunter, and Ryu Hayabusa. But following my own predictions, I think we will get a smaller, yet still notable third party character. I think we will get another Terry, someone who will blindside people. I just have this feeling that Puyo Puyo will get a character. It's suspicious to me that one of the Japanese Puyo Puyo games was released on the Switch online service instead of Kirby's Avalanche or Dr Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine, two games that are much more familiar to western audiences. Not to mention Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 is coming out later this year and overall the series seems to be getting more traction. Nintendo and especially Sega seems to be really pushing this series and if my previous predictions come true, we could see a character that is more catered toward the Japanese audiences more. If you ask me who could be the left field pick of this pass, I think it could be Arle.

Impa or BOTW 2 Zelda - Call it pessimism but considering how Smash 4's DLC and the first fighters pass ended, I am confident we will end Ultimate's DLC on an underwhelming character. For the longest time, I was calling that a 8th gen Pokemon would be the Byleth of this pass, but considering how close we are to the Crown Tundra and we just got a Smash character reveal that wasn't Pokemon, I am kind of skeptical that we will get a Pokemon now. Of course Byleth was revealed months after his game came out, so it's possible we could still get a gen 8 Pokemon.

But now, I am passing my pessimism onto the Zelda series. Honestly, it feels like the series is almost guaranteed not to get a character outside of the main trio. And what is a big game that is probably coming out next year that could get shilled? BOTW 2. Doesn't anyone find it suspicious that Sakurai randomly brought up Zelda two times during these DLC presentations (One time during Byleth then Min Min)? It sounds like to me that maybe he is trying to get us prepared for a disappointing finale. I know I'm sounding very negative, but I can't get over how the DLC and even base roster selections have repeatedly ended on a whimper and despite this being an ambitious game, I don't think the ending will be quite different. I would love to put someone like Geno on here and say that Ultimate will end on a high note, but I can't confidently do that. As for Impa, she is a possibility since it seems like she will be a big part of Hyrule Warriors 2 and to my knowledge she is one of the few reoccurring characters throughout the series. Maybe Sakurai will choose her instead of Zelda which would definitely help with the reception as she is someone who isn't one of the triforce trio. But either way, any way, I think Nintendo is gonna push a shill pick on us.


Noms: Arthur x20

 

[chocolatejr9]

Welp, time to make a guess and hope for the best. Bare in mind, I'm doing this under the assumption that it'll be split evenly between first and third parties.

Rex - What can I say that hasn't been said at this point? He's EASILY the most likely first-party. Sakurai considered including him in the base game, and now he has his chance. Before anybody mentions it, I know he said "Xenoblade Chronicles 2" in general. However, if we were getting any XC2 character, it HAS to be Rex, whether people like it or not.

Euden - Yes, I'm still going on about this. Dragalia Lost is Nintendo's first original IP on mobile. Despite that, it has ZERO content in Smash. That wouldn't be TOO noticeable, but we just passed the game's 2nd Anniversary. At this point, it's pretty glaring, in my opinion.

Level-5 rep - This one is a bit of an odd one, not gonna lie. Level-5 has more than earned a spot in the Smash roster. However, nothing seems to have come of it. It's definetly not because of lack of options, given they own Professor Layton and Yo-kai Watch. Really, this one feels like a "wait and see" situation.

Disgaea rep - And here's the random left field pick. It seems that Nintendo might be interested in promoting the series here in the West. Disgaea 6 was announced in the last Partner Showcase, and Disgaea 5 had some kind of free trial period similar to Nintendo's first party titles. This could end up being the Terry of this pass, minus the 50 songs, of course. However, like Level-5, this seems to be a "wait and see" situation.

On an additional note, I'm pretty certain that at least Geno's Mii costume is coming back. Though admittedly, this is more of a gut feeling on my part...

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Steve satisfaction pre-Fighter Pass 2 predictions

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x195
Billy Hatcher x195
Zelda (BotW universe) x190
The Stretchers x185
Sakura Shinguji x185
Alex Mason x175
Amiya (Arknights) x165

200 - 151

Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x160
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x156

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Hades (Kid Icarus) x130
Red (Angry Birds) x125
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x125
D.Va x115
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x105
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x105
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x104

100 - 51

Concept: A Bravely Default character x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x89
[Rerate] Maxwell x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Stage: Bowser's Castle x71
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x65
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x55
Boss: Rayquaza x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Hajime Hinata x40
Miriam x40
Echo: Coco (Crash) x40
Impa (Age of Calamity) x30

Under 25

Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Tetris x10
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Don-chan x5
Adol Christin x5
Ryza (Atelier) x5

Billy Hatcher steamrolls The Stretchers and Zelda and ties with Concept: Content from currently unreleased game for first place!

Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA and Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content dig up 150 noms.

Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief, Arthur, and Mii Costume: Jill Stingray all cross 100 noms.

Boss: Rayquaza soars past 50 noms.

Impa cuts past 25 noms.

Today's newcomers are Ryza, with 5 noms, Tetris, with 10 noms, and Maxwell, with a whopping 85 noms. That's what happens when one user guesses all the Minecraft content.

BlueEyedGrimmbat RealPokeFan11 you both gave the Imposter 5 noms, but there's no thread for them. Want to give those noms to some other character?

 

[Blankiturayman]

Well, my track record with predictions is pretty bad. I gave a 15% chance to the character that just got revealed, hah. And just a bit ago, one of the characters I thought was likelier, Travis, got costume'd. Well, what happens happens. I suppose I'll give this a shot regardless, I don't see why not, it's part of the fun. I was thinking about being more broad at first but I'll go into single characters directly. Without further ado, here they are:

Geno
Nothing's really changed for him. There's the missing Mii Costume, the longstanding support, being flat out mentioned by Sakurai directly as wanting playable, which not many characters have. The thing is, the selection is now Nintendo's, but I do think they could've been aware of the support. I don't think this Pass necessarily has to follow with the first one's pattern of having equivalents, like Geno being the fan-favorite equivalent in FP2, but they could go along with it just due to how long it's been around for. If not him, I think another SE character isn't out of the question.

Rayman
Constant Smash appareances since 4. Rayman's franchise has been with Nintendo since Rayman 2, and despite two entirely new Mii Costumes being added for Ubisoft in FP1, Rayman was suspiciously missing. For a long while, Ubisoft has been pretty open about wanting Rayman in Smash, so it's clear this'd be their first choice for a playable fighter. So then... why not take the chance with a costume then? Maybe not necessarily because he's playable, but I do find it odd they haven't been as open about it recently.

Reimu Hakurei
This one is probably the most out there, but I really could see it. Long history in Japan, one of the oldest "independent" game series, has left a huge legacy in terms of fan content. Then again, when it comes to stuff worldwide, it's no surprise that Touhou is indeed niche. This could be a "Japan-oriented" pick if there's any like it, since most of its popularity resides there. It could be yet another demographic for them to appeal to, and I figure they'd be glad to have more of an audience, even if the game is already doing really well. At the very least so far, Smash has been no stranger to adding "Independent" content, and if there was one to break the barrier into playable character, I could see Reimu doing it. Another one I could think of is Quote.

Rex
This could double as a "1st party" pick. I don't think Min Min was the last pure Nintendo-related character to get in. I wouldn't call him guaranteed, but I do think his chances look good, probably the better one of the 1st parties. XC2 was pretty successful, even now it's mentioned here and there, and he was pretty much passed over due to the game just not being in time. It's pretty obvious where this could go, since now FP2 is well beyond the base game selections.

Honorable Mentions, in no particular order:
-Crash
-Arle Nadja
-FALCOM (Adol/Estelle)
-Capcom (Dante, Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright)
-Bandai Namco (Tales of, Xenosaga)

And I'll leave it there, because I think I've added too much. I think there's such a wide pool of characters they could go with, which is why I was not sure which exact characters to put in the list. While Steve was a HUGE choice in terms of characters they could go with, I feel that's the highest they'll get (I don't know how "bigger" they could, really) and they could go with some smaller choices from here on. Maybe some to expand the crossover, that way they get more demographic. Some that have a legacy behind them, some from partners that have helped them for a while. That being said, I don't think it means we won't get anything else that's huge. Well, we'll see with time. I wonder if even one of those will get in.

Nominations today go to Adol Christin x20 if I got it right.

 

[Deleted member]

This is tough but I'll give it a shot.

Ryu Hayabusa- Since those Steve rumors back in the day amounted to something, I wouldn't be surprised if Hayabusa made a comeback. Even disregarding those rumors KT and Nintendo have been working very closely on Warriors games and Three Houses. Being an NES icon certainly helps as well.

Monster Hunter- These guys just check all the boxes for me. Huge cultural relevance in Japan, their Mii Costumes haven't returned yet, and they have a big Switch exclusive on the horizon. This pretty much parallels what happened with DQ11 S and Hero down to the letter. Rise's release date in particular also helps a ton, considering we know for a fact that Corrin and Byleth were considered precisely because they were from recent games.

Crash Bandicoot- Crash is my pick for E3 2021 (or whatever the equivalent is). A huge name in gaming undergoing a resurgence & has worldwide appeal. I feel like this being the second pass benefits Western characters like Crash in particular, as it gives them more time to have been negotiated for through the language & cultural barrier.

Rex & Pythra- Honestly I don't know who to put in this last spot. I feel like the last character is going to be from Nintendo judging by the other 2 waves of DLC, but if we are getting one it'd probably be from an upcoming game of which we only really know of Age of Calamity & BotW2, & I doubt a pick from either. If the upcoming game slot is covered by Monster Hunter though? That opens up a lot more possibilities, of which I sort of default to Rex. It feels like they've left just enough XC2 content to come back to it if they so please (no Torna spirits, only 3 music tracks, no Rex icon online) while still being able to rep the game properly by leaving things as is. He's in a very weird limbo where he's been acknowledged and apologized for, but also not being new enough to be a surefire promotional option. Xenoblade as a series could still use a boost though, so it's not like there's no value for Nintendo in this.

HMs: Geno, Arle, Reimu.

 

[Deleted member]

So I guess we're skipping Steve Presentation Reactions today, but regardless, Vol 2 predictions for the last 4 characters is going to be fun.

Sakurai has given every DLC character something unique to Smash whether if it's on their playstyle or their mechanics. My predictions will mostly be based on characters/franchises that could implement something different to the table.

1: Dynasty Warriors Rep (Dynasty Warriors lol)

Lo and behold: Dynasty Warriors fan thinks Dynasty Warriors character will be in Smash.

Anyways, Dynasty Warriors was the series that spawned the entire Musou genre since 2000. Koei-Tecmo have been involved with various Nintendo projects since Other M and have continued onwards with Age of Calamity being released this holiday. I firmly believe that a Dynasty Warriors character will be in Smash with the series being Koei-Tecmo's flagship title, and Sakurai will develop the character around the mechanics of the games. While I can't speak for the combat of Dynasty Warriors 9, previous Dynasty Warriors titles give me the impression that the character will have around 4 - 6 jabs with 3 - 5 of them being able to combo into a strong attack like how it is in the games. The trend of each DLC character having a Cinematic Final Smash has remained consistent throughout Vol 1 and 2, so I could picture Sakurai implementing Musou Attacks into the character from both getting enough hits in and getting hit enough times. That's good enough to make them completely stand out from the rest of the roster already, and I haven't even gotten around to the concept of the stage being similar to the games with Officers cameoing on the stage, seeing their dialogue on screen, and even the possibility of Morale based attack boosts.

2: Billy & Jimmy (Double Dragon)

So here's how I see this: Billy and Jimmy are going to be in a Challenger Pack with 1 of them being an Echo Fighter, essentially a 2 for 1 offer that'll guarantee both of them getting separate Amiibos. They're 1 of the most iconic Beat Em Up franchises of all time and happen to be super overlooked when it comes to classic NES icons with Smash potential. Arc System Works have added River City spirits to Smash back in January and Whether if you take it either as a good or bad sign for an ASW rep, it does mean they've collaborated with Nintendo and Sakurai before. While I don't know much about the franchise other than me playing Neon for a couple of hours a long time ago, there's a huge opportunity in an actual Beat Em Up stage where you can fight stage enemies and proceed onwards to the next set of enemies That'd pretty much be the best DLC stage if not the best stage in all of Ultimate (if executed well of course). I could also imagine Billy and Jimmy incorporating items to their moveset where they can pick up practically any random melee items with either their neutral or down special ranging from weapons from their games to even Smash items like the baseball bat.

3: Gen 8 Pokemon (Pokemon Sword & Shield)

Look I'll be honest here: I got nothing when it comes to how a Gen 8 Pokemon would work that'd make them stand out from the rest since I haven't played the game. I just think they're going to happen since SwSh essentially breathes money on the Switch, and even when they had a Spirit Event and a Tourney to hype up its launch date, I'd say it's just promotional material and not outright deconfirmations like a good portion of people think on here. I'm sure there are Pokemon that would bring something completely new to the table. Sakurai's already proven he's capable of doing such things with various characters including Pokemons, so I'm sure he'll be able to do the same with any Gen 8 Pokemon chosen for the spot.

4: Cadence (Crypt of the NecroDancer)
Cadence seems like a super out there character for predictions given how Crypt of the NecroDancer is an Indie game, but hear me out. It's completely possible that Sakurai wants to make a rhythm based character for Smash where their moveset is based on the beat of the soundtracks, but it sounds like complete hell when you consider how many tracks are currently in Ultimate. Perhaps Sakurai decided to greenlight the idea around the time Vol 2 was currently being concepted on because of how much he wants to give it a whirl, and Cadence was chosen thanks in part to Cadence of Hyrule. Of course, it doesn't have to be her only being able to attack per beat like how the game does it; you could just have it where her attacks do more dmg when they strike at the beat. I'd say she'll be the last character added to Smash because of how much time the team would have to put through developing rhythm based attacks for her, but Cadence coming to Smash with such a mechanic definitely feels like the grand finale to Ultimate. If you think they can't top Steve being able to mine different materials from over 100 stages, wait until you see Cadence get rhythm based attacks from around 1000 soundtracks.

To wrap up: Dynasty Warriors Character, Billy & Jimmy, Gen 8 Pokemon, and Cadence are my predictions. The only character I'm confident about being last is Cadence because of how much of a technical struggle it sounds to be compared to every other character, so the 1st 3 predictions are based on how I want them ordered instead of how I think they will be ordered.

Noms:
Ryza x15 (at least 5 sentences is a paragraph I believe but I only had 4 for Gen 8 Pokemon)

 

[Jomosensual]

Alright, so here's mine. While I don't feel super confident in the names I'm picking here, I do feel pretty good about the pass make up looking something like this:
1. A major regional appeal character. Most of pass 1 went like this so with 6 spots in pass 2 I'd be shocked if they didn't dip back into that well at least 1 more time.
2. Another hype E3 reveal. There's no way we don't get another pick set for E3 and E3 always has someone big shown off there. Leaning towards this being a character the west is fond of as well.
3. A lesser known 3rd party character with a solid history with Nintendo. I basically mean a Terry spot here. By this I also don't mean the character is a literal who or is completely and totally obscure. Just a character who isn't as big of a name in the overall gaming world.
4. A Nintendo character from a 2021 release. So far we've ended 2 cycles of DLC with a character from a recently released game and IIRC Sakurai said something about liking to end on characters like that since they are more fresh in people's minds

Could easily see spots 1 and 3 being flipped. Think 2 and 4 and pretty solidly locked in order however.

So with that said, here's who I predict will be our final 4 DLC characters in Smash Ultimate:

1. Ahri - Still feel solid about a League of Legends character happening here. Let's go over the reasons why again. First, the Switch is newly introduced in China. Not sure how COVID has effected that, but this was planned before Covid so I doubt that it's going to effect Smash DLC picks. 2nd, LOL is massive in China. Not so much in Japan however, but huge in China and in the west. The partner for the Switch in China project is Tencent, who owns Riot games who makes LOL. And as we;ve seen with the Pokemon MOBA they're clearly working together on more than just that. And while I understand Smash isn't out in China yet there's no way its not coming. There's just way too much that makes sense here. I have this listed as our next DLC character but I could see it being flipped with spot 3. Not sure who else could contend for this spot other than maybe Heavy who would be a big UK pick which I don't believe we got yet.

2. Crash Bandicoot - Here's the 2nd E3 reveal of the pass. While I don't exactly trust names once they start getting big in Smash speculation anymore I think there's a lot going here. Perfect E3 reveal here. A gaming icon that's super popular worldwide and has a fair amount of request. Would also match up with the recent trend of getting a western developed character added at western events(Joker, Banjo, and now Steve). Even should E3 not happen again, the DLC was already picked back when that wasn't a thought out there yet so that won't factor in. And although it seems like Sakurai/Nintendo doesn't really believe in doing things this way, it would be one killer way to expand the crossover for what would probably be the last time in Ultimate where literally everyone is losing their minds. Other contenders for this spot include Tracer, Geno, and Sora among many others.

3. Phoenix Wright - Here's the pick I'm the least confident in. Not because of explanation above, but because there's a lot of people who could fit in here. I'll explain why I think Phoenix first though. Ace Attorney has a long history with Nintendo with most if not all games of their showing up on Nintendo somewhere. While not being iconic Phoenix is a known character. There's also a connection to Sakurai here that might help him out, which is the GBA trailer story I linked here. Which helped get us to the Smash trailers and reveals we have now. While it might not be much, it does seem like having a connection to Sakurai has helped more than it hasn't really. And by that I don't mean the dumb "Well, Sakurai tweeted that he liked this game back in 2010, that means ____ is for sure coming next". I mean like actual connections that inspired or influcenced him. On top of that, Capcom is a really easy company to work with and I'd be very surprised if we got 0 DLC from them. Think Hayabusa is a good contender here too but as far as I know he doesn't have the same connection that Phoenix does to Sakurai and Capcom has already gotten playable characters, which feels like a big hurdle to overcome for some reason in which KT hasn't yet.

4. A Nintendo character with a 2021 release(Right now only real contender seems to be BOTW 2 character) - Yep, still confident in this happening. Like I said above there's a clear pattern here and I swear a Sakurai quote out there explaining why they do this. So who could it be? Well I kinda have no clue at this point. The only 1st party game out there for 2021 we know for sure is BOTW 2 right now. So Zelda or the new Impa seems likely for it at the moment. However, Nintendo for sure has stuff in development right now that we don't know about. Until we know about them it's kinda hard to talk about their chances, so instead I'll take a minute and talk about who doesn't make sense for this spot. First, we have 2020 releases who were speculated for this spot. That includes Paper Mario and a Gen 8 Pokemon. Both those games/dlc are way too late for that spot. Like I said, this is usually a promotional spot and I can't imagine a scenerio where they decide to promote a game and DLC packs that will be well over a year old when the character even gets announced. I also dont see it being Monster Hunter or a SMT character right here. Although I do think they're in a good time window for it seemingly, they are also both 3rd parties and Nintendo seems to want to drop their own characters in those spots. Also since I know somebody is thinking it, no, it won't be a FE protagonist. We're likely at least a year away from another FE game being announced. So what exactly am I looking for here? Probably a 1st party game released somewhere in the Spring-Summer(or because of delays as late as the fall maybe). We don't really know what that'll be right now but I'm confident we'll get a character in the same vein as Corrin and Byleth.

Predictions:
IDK who we're on but I'm already 3 hours past when i should have gone to bed(watched Iowa State upset OU) so I'll just toss a 25% at whoever and call it a day

Noms
Stretchers x5
Non Steve/Chief Microsoft rep x15

 

[Brodemmars]

Here are my current predictions

But first I'll need to present my personal theory.

Here are the current age ratings for FP1 and FP2 on Nintendo’s Brazilian Store
https://store.nintendo.com.br/super-smash-bros-ultimate-fighters-pass
https://store.nintendo.com.br/super-smash-bros-tm-ultimate-fighters-pass-vol-2
You’ll notice that FP1 was given a higher age rating for “content” that was barely present. With a popular franchise like Minecraft being added, I predict that FP2 will have only characters that can be sold to and can appeal to younger gamers, I believe that Nintendo is doing this to maximize profit from franchises like Minecraft and to avoid accidently bumping up the age rating of FP2. As such I predict that characters like

Crash - a popular character

Rayman - I heard it took awhile for Steve to be added, so Rayman could be in the same boat

Ryu Hayabusa. - Heard theories and rumors that suggest Ryu is a character that could be in the FP.

Cinderace - For a major franchise like Pokemon, I find it suspicious that we have gotten any new content for Smash since the spirit event last year (not even for the Isle of Armor DLC which would have been the perfect time to give us some new spirits). Which leads me to suspect that they are possibly planning to add a character. From what I've seen, the Cinderace line has received tons of special treatment in games and the Anime, as such it is likely that the pokemon company would push it to be the next playable character if they could.

will make up the rest of FP2.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Even though I'm mimicking what I said earllier, my predictions going forward are relatively the same as I had previously - just minus Travis Touchdown.

Ryu Hayabusa: One of the last remaining NES classic heroes, and his parent company Koei-Tecmo have a very strong relationship with Nintendo. Ninja Gaiden was pretty big in its heyday for having some of the more advanced cutscenes and stories of the NES era, and Ryu's got plenty of fighting potential thanks to both the classic games, the reboot trilogy and Dead or Alive. If Vergeben is to be believed about Minecraft being in the works and Nintendo and Koei-Tecmo have been in discussions, then I think Ryu is pretty likely to show up.

Reimu Hakurei: A personal want of mine since Touhou's become more popular in the speculation scene. A long running indie/doujin franchise with wonderful music and lots of charming characters - Reimu joining Smash Bros would be a shout-out to the doujin world of video games.

Capcom Character (Dante, Phoenix Wright, Viewtiful Joe): Capcom seem to me like they're due for a new character from one of their other franchises, and given how highly requested Dante's become, in addition to his games slowly making their way to Switch (which is something that Hideaki Itsuno said would be important before Dante showed up), I have a feeling that Dante's probably in the best spot. Phoenix Wright is close behind, thanks to his long-standing presence on Nintendo platforms since the Game Boy Advance and DS days, so he's got a strong shot too.

SEGA Character (Kazuma Kiryu, Arle Nadja, Dr. Eggman): Given that Microsoft got their second character in this pass, a new SEGA character wouldn't be a bad idea if you ask me, especially from some of the franchises that have taken off in popularity like Yakuza or Puyo Puyo.

Runner up to this is a new Nintendo character like Euden to represent mobile games; or we could see Dixie Kong show up with a promotion to playable status; as well as the fresh games Nintendo want to promote like Pokémon Sword & Shield and Xenoblade.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Here’s my current predictions:

Ryu Hayabusa - He’s the character I’m the most confident in. His name was consistently found alongside Steve’s in 2019. The Steve rumors finally came true, I bet the Ryu rumors will too. Ryu is a fairly iconic character; I’d say he’s on Terry’s level where if you’re well versed on gaming history, you’ll know who he is. He’d be a pick that would go over pretty well.

Alongside that, Koei Tecmo is one of the biggest Japanese developers not repped in Smash yet. They’re also one of the most important developers on the Switch; they’ve probably worked on more Switch exclusives than any 1st party Nintendo character. I’ll be shocked if they don’t get in, especially since Ryu is a pick that wouldn’t cause any backlash or anything.

Mipha or Impa - I think we’re getting another Nintendo character. For a while, I thought it’d be Rex or a Sw/Sh Pokemon but I really think it’s a BOTW character now. Nintendo is really pushing this sub-series, it’s going to be the face of Zelda for the foreseeable future.

Yes, Ultimate’s Link is the BOTW version & the game has a stage. But BOTW is so huge that it easily justifies getting a unique character. Especially since you can take stuff from AOC & even BOTW2 now. This would also quell the fan complaint about Zelda’s Fighter selection.

Master Chief, Crash or Lara Croft - 2018 showed that Snake, Ryu & Cloud were coming back even though many doubted it. 2019 had Dragon Quest. 2020 has Minecraft. Each year we get a character from a huge, legendary series into Smash. Nintendo clearly planned Fighter Pass 2 as a multi-year project, so I bet they have another ace up their sleeve for 2021.

Crash is probably the most likely of these. He’s super iconic, he’s been a big fan request since 2018 & Activision is actively pushing the series right now. Though, Activision is a very... iffy company so maybe they screwed up negotiations. But he’s arguably the most wanted character right now & would please just about everyone, so it could be worth the headache of dealing with Activision.

Lara Croft is probably the least likely since there’s no real fan demand & she would have the most basic moveset. But she’s definitely be a newsworthy catch. Plus, Square & Nintendo are really chummy nowadays, so it could be easy for them to acquire. There’s also the missing Square costumes who could accompany her.

Master Chief is in an iffy spot. We just got a Microsoft character in this pass. Would they really go for another one instead of working with a new partner? Who knows but this Microsoft partnership might be a once in a lifetime deal. Might as well go as crazy with it as you can & get one final bombshell. Steve & Master Chief would also appeal to completely different audiences too.

Curveball for this section is that the Resident Evil spirit event or Altair Mii costume were red herrings & we get Leon/Jill or Ezio.

Dante or Monster Hunter - I think Nintendo will dive into the Capcom well again. That company has too many great choices & they’re always eager to put their characters into crossovers. Dante & MonHun have been discussed to death, so my pros & cons for them are the usual suspects lmao

Runners-up:
Rex
Cinderace
Sol Badguy
Sakura Shinguji
Geno

 

[Nemuresu]

Alright, my own cents on the topic:
1.- Ryu Hayabusa: Easiest one to explain. After hearing that whole debacle about Steve being discussed for five years and in development for two or three, plus Vergeben having known about Minecraft few months prior to Ultimate's announcement, I really can't help but believe there really have been discussion with Koei outside of their participation in Byleth's trailer. I do think we'll see him in any sort of capacity: whether it's a new spirit event, a Mii or a full character, but I lean towards the third one. As for competition, he's basically got none, since there really isn't much that Ryza or other characters have over him in popularity or recognition.

2.- Dante: Demand speaks everything. This guy has been ranking high in several polls and demand has gone far enough to tell people at Capcom to put the DMC series in the Switch, and look at where we are now. I think timing was good enough to get him into negotiations, though one has to wonder if it really is like that after that bit about Steve. Still, if there's any Capcom character, I can't expect anyone that isn't him with Monster Hunter already represented in other ways, Resident Evil spirited away, and Ace Attorney not having as much notoriety.

3.- Sora: While I certainly don't agree with Imran Khan on any implications involving the reduction of third-party characters due to how little sense it'd do for Nintendo to step back after gaining so much through them, I do agree where they only have another big character in the talks and he fits right in. He's been a recurrent most wanted for way more time than most characters, to the point where there's just not any type of poll where he isn't among at least in the top 10. Plus, as I once mentioned in the past, if he was too tied to Disney to not be viable, I'd believe Sakurai would've already stated that, just like he didn't hesitate mentioning Goku in the past.

4.- Rex: I wasn't sure who'd be more likely between him and Waluigi, since both of them are probably the most demanded first-party picks out there. I ended up leaning towards Rex because there's just a lot more chances to include content from XC2 than there is to get more Mario stuff (3 tracks versus the gorillion Mario themes out there). It's much easier to imagine a Xenoblade-themed spirit board as well, and I can at least imagine him working with Pyra and Mythra in a gimmicky enough way to be given a chance.

Now, some honorable mentions:
Waluigi: Popularity alone makes him a contender, and unlike Rex, he doesn't have any sort of post-launch content, but that's pretty much the only real advantage he has.
*Doomguy: I had him in another list of preditions I made earlier, but came to realize he doesn't have that much going on his side.
*Bandana Dee: Part of me wanted to put him, but thing is, aside from Source Gaming's latest poll (where he was the only first-party character to be in the top 10), I really haven't seen that much demand for him as before.
*Neku: There's the possibility of TWEWY really getting a sequel with the anime adaptation possibly leading into it, but that really doesn't have anything to with Smash or even Nintendo (especially since the one leaker who teased TWEWY 2 implied the game would be a multiplat rather than Switch-exclusive).
*Rayman: There's the fact that he's been suspiciously absent from DLC seasons in spite of having a pair of Ubisoft miis with Rabbids and Altair, but it may be just an odd coincidence.
*Crash: Been hearing those rumours about Activision having huge plans for him, but that doesn't mean much for Smash.
*2021 Nintendo character: I see the sense in this idea, but let's think about for a moment: outside from the new Hyrule Warriors, everything is in a rather ambiguous situation. We still don't know anything about Bayonetta 3 or Metroid Prime 4; there's barely anything to talk about BOTW2, and after that, nothing. Young Impa has been discussed a lot, but I think it's rather early to say whether that's possible or not, especially when Spirit event prey on new releases like sharks.

Nominations: Zero x20

 

[3DSNinja]

Aight it's time.

1. Monokuma/Hajime Hinata.
I am certain we're getting Danganronpa representation, and it has to be one of these two. Monokuma is the icon and well...Mono****inkuma, and Hajime is the most popular protag and SDR2 is ludicrously popular. As well, Nintendo and Spike Chunsoft are very chummy, and I can see them putting a DR rep in. Hajime over Monokuma would probably be due to Monokuma having some spoilery **** surrounding him, and if you want to include

Spoiler: DR1

Junko

you entirely ruin the finale of Game 1. That's the main reason why Hajime is honestly a possibility IMO.
2. Isaac.
Now before you murder me, hear me out. We have the GS leaks, and Isaac is incredibly popular, and his Mii Costume already has a model for him in the game. Also, Matthew can easily replace him as an AT. And he's the only assist I see happening, IMO. But that's just me.
3. Dante from the Devil May Cry Series.
If we're getting another big character, he's it. Popular, new game, and moveset potential galore. And if Hajime gets in...Yeah, Phoenix is dead in the water. And as much as I love Amaratsu, she's not happening over Dante or Phoenix.
4. Geno.
He's easily the most demanded character, and for the longest as well. Plus, he hasn't had his Mii Costume come out. As well, he could easily be the Banjo, and he feels perfect for CP11. It just feels like he's destined to get in, if i'm being honest.
Honorable Mentions:
Bandana Dee
Dovahkiin
Neku
Ryu Hayabusa
Nominations: Hajime Hinata x5

 

[MarioRaccoon]

This is my predictions of the remaining four:

1) Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden, 1988): I think that everyone is saying this. He is iconic, has legacy and its one lf the last iconic NES era characters left. Nintendo has built a great relationship with Koei-Tecmo, they will probably become best Switch third party publisher. I think that he can be a cool fighter combining moves from his original trilogy, reboot trilogy and DoA games (plus songs from those titles).

2) Dante (Devil May Cry, 2001): Capcom has been very generous with Smash content and can be possible Bayonetta vs Dante dreamatch. He can pull lots of moves from different games, his soundtrack is also cool. I prefer Devil May Cry universe rather than Resident Evil or Monster Hunter.

3) Crash Bandicoot (Crash, 1996): He is iconic, popular worldwide, historic reasons, got a new entry this week (with a possible switch port later) and the idea of reviving late 90’s console wars with Mario vs Sonic vs Crash would be incredible for everyone that is +25 here. They can try to make Coco his alt so it a can be like a dual Crash/Coco fighter, like most of their games.

4) Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven, 2008): This would be the wild card of this FP, I think that a Rhythm fighter would be interesting and maybe Sakurai can make a creative moveset for them. They were plans for this guys on early Smash 4 development, so I was curious what was Sakurai original vision.

Thats the pass: 2 fighters from 10’s (Min Min and Steve), 2 from 00’s (Chorus Kids and Dante), 1 from 90’s (Crash) and 1 from 80’s (Ryu H.)

 

[SharkLord]

Honestly, I have no ****ing clue. There's a lot of games out there, Smash is unpredictable, and my bar of entry is lower than average; Not to mention the fact that my predictions are a bloody roulette wheel at this point. Instead of an actual pass, I think I'll just use vague guidelines and give some examples, in no particular order.

• A large-yet-niche third-party: Basically any large series that's held back by something. Maybe they used to be big but fell on hard times. Perhaps they don't get much attention, despite being large and influential. Or, potentially, their popularity is concentrated in one corner of the world rather than being widespread. Sorta like Terry; He's from an influential, long-running franchise, but isn't very well-known beyond the FGC and countries with strong arcade scenes, like Japan and Latin America. Some examples include...
  • Reimu Hakurei: Yeah, I know what you're thinking. "Shark, when will you drop her?" And I respond, "The Touhou law requires that I don't." Still, Touhou's the definition of iconic-but-niche; A long-running franchise with a massive fandom, but an indie. Given how friendly Nintendo is with indies lately, I think we're getting one. Seeing as the Touhou Project is one of the oldest and biggest indies, especially in Japan, the natural choice would be Reimu. While she's not as big in the West, Touhou still has enough of a following there for ZUN to just let them translate for him. On that note, ZUN being the sole owner of the Touhou Project means it should be pretty easy to negotiate the rights for her. It should also be noted that while the apparent frontrunners have been relegated to more minor roles, those are all fairly recent Western indies. Perhaps Nintendo wants something a little older, and closer to home... or maybe I'm just deluding myself
  • Quote: Similar boat as Reimu, being an old, influential Japanese indie. However, I'm a bit shaky on him. From what I've heard, his owner, Nicalis, isn't just a bad company, they're unreliable, with a history of ghosting other companies. With a reputation like that, Nintendo might be a bit hesitant to have a major collaboration with them. Then again, it's not like I know enough to be qualified to talk about this guy, so...
  • Sakura Shinguji: Sakura's like a more extreme version of Reimu, being a massively popular Japanese character who's less popular in the West. She's appeared in basically everything, from anime to stage shows, and her series won a SEGA poll for franchise investment while her series was in dormancy. If you're beating out every other SEGA IP, that's saying something. However, she's even less localized than Reimu, with only two official localizations-And unlike with Touhou, she can't rely on fan translations. Overall, she's a 50-50 split for if Nintendo wants a Japan-centric pick or a more worldwide appeal.
  • Adol Christin: Ys has undeniably left a huge mark on RPGs. It was one of the oldest JRPGs, as well as being the OG action RPG. When you have that kind of reputation under your belt, you've got quite the claim to fame. In addition, Falcom's a smaller company, so they're more easily negotiated with. Heck, we might even get a Terry situation and draw songs from Falcom's entire history. Still, Ys never really hit it big. At the very least, Ys sells better in the West, so they could potentially balance out the "anime swordfighter" thing with that.
• Two first-parties: I'm hedging my bets on two of these. An even 50-50 split, no further explanation needed. Now, for the examples:
  • Rex: We've all gone through this before. Helped Xenoblade break out of it's cult classic status, is still promoted even with the release of XC:DE, was enough that Rex was chosen as the bonus Mii of FP1. Seeing as the Rex Mii was chosen around the same time as FP1, I think he's on the same level as Spirits and base game Miis. Now, if he gets sold separate from the first pass, I'll pull the plug, but that hasn't happened yet.
  • Isaac: As I mentioned before, I think AT upgrades are possible, but the pool of viable promotes is small. I think Isaac could be this pass' fan-favorite, being a long-standing request with a series to back him up. Plus, the new trademark that was filed back in 2018 and was rejected twice between going through seems to imply that Nintendo isn't quite done with the series yet.
  • Euden: A bit of a sleeper character, seeing as he's one of, if not the biggest new Nintendo IPs that haven't been represented yet. Then again, his game isn't available in Europe, so that could prove to be a bit of a hindrance.
• 100% Iconic Third-Party: Self-explanatory. Either a recent success like Joker, or a long-runner like Hero. I'm counting Steve under the latter category, having been added after a decade of history. Here's some examples:
  • Monster Hunter: We already know where this is going. Long-runner, huge money-maker, expanded to the West with World, new Switch-exclusive release with a heavy push. Not much more to say.
  • Ryu Hayabusa: We also know where this is going. NES classic, OG video game ninja, Koei-Tecmo doesn't have a rep yet despite their status and closeness with Nintendo.
  • Crash Bandicoot: Yadda yadda, old, popular, harkens back to the Console Wars. We know this already, next.
  • Lara Croft: Major pillar for Square Enix, long-runner, is the female protagonist of gaming. We already know this. And yet we all called her underrated...

Welp, there's my list. Probably cheated with the multiple characters, but oh well. At least I was honest about my lack of predictions. Kinda fell apart at the end there, just got kinda tired.

Anyways, nominate Adol Christin x20 (Or just x5, if the multiple characters don't count).