Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[SharkLord]

Very much this. Waluigi will be an obstacle to most first party characters because of the sheer fact that, imo, he's one of the first parties Nintendo stands to win the most from. When you only have 5 spots left, any other character that is found to be more likely is necessarily going to detract from the likelihood of other characters.

Also, the conversation naturally drifts to Waluigi comparison from the fact today is a conversation about first party AT promotions and Waluigi is also arguably a product of Camelot. It's an inevitable comparison and I disagree with it being unrelated to Isaac's chances.
If anything, my hot take is that we should be considering other competition in rating Isaac. Is Isaac more popular than Bandanna Waddle Dee? Geno? Rex and Pyra? Because realistically speaking, the chances that we can get all of these is low, and with most of these characters their main asset for inclusion is that they're popular within the smash community. A lot of characters want to fill in the (big) shoes left by Ridley and K. Rool's inclusion, and I think realistically we can't expect all of these to happen.

Honestly, I don't see Waluigi happening unless he's a Piranha Plant-esque bonus. Mario's already represented to a very high degree, and there isn't much Waluigi could bring with him. He's got no central game he's heavily associated with, nor does he have a specific era. I know there's the spinoffs, but those aren't as close as, say, Rex and Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and Mario isn't lacking in representation like Kirby or Sonic, either. He's got popularity and recognizability, sure, but he doesn't have a straight link to anything beyond the Mario series. If we're talking a hypothetical solo fighter, he'd definitely be in heavy consideration, but I just don't see him as part of the pass.

 

[Glaciacott]

Honestly, I don't see Waluigi happening unless he's a Piranha Plant-esque bonus. Mario's already represented to a very high degree, and there isn't much Waluigi could bring with him. He's got no central game he's heavily associated with, nor does he have a specific era. I know there's the spinoffs, but those aren't as close as, say, Rex and Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and Mario isn't lacking in representation like Kirby or Sonic, either. He's got popularity and recognizability, sure, but he doesn't have a straight link to anything beyond the Mario series. If we're talking a hypothetical solo fighter, he'd definitely be in heavy consideration, but I just don't see him as part of the pass.

I agree with a lot of those, but I think at the end of the day it's more of a marketing decision since it's Nintendo choosing the characters: if Nintendo wants him because he will sell passes, it's up to Sakurai and the team to figure out the rest and make it happen.
That said though, this is a conversation to have more in-depth if we get to another waluigi rate.

 

[SharkLord]

I agree with a lot of those, but I think at the end of the day it's more of a marketing decision since it's Nintendo choosing the characters: if Nintendo wants him because he will sell passes, it's up to Sakurai and the team to figure out the rest and make it happen.
That said though, this is a conversation to have more in-depth if we get to another waluigi rate.

Yeah, this is probably best reserved for when we get to Wacky Purple Man himself. Now is for Ashley and Isaac.
And just for the record, it appears that Waluigi will be re-rated with Rex on day 499, unless either of them ends up being the next fighter. Speaking of which, if Rex or Waluigi get revealed before we reach them, we'll just be doing them solo, right? Or will the get folded into whoever came before them?

 

[warpenguin55]

Yeah, this is probably best reserved for when we get to Wacky Purple Man himself. Now is for Ashley and Isaac.
And just for the record, it appears that Waluigi will be re-rated with Rex on day 499, unless either of them ends up being the next fighter. Speaking of which, if Rex or Waluigi get revealed before we reach them, we'll just be doing them solo, right? Or will the get folded into whoever came before them?

Great question! Someone who knows the answer please let us know

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yeah, this is probably best reserved for when we get to Wacky Purple Man himself. Now is for Ashley and Isaac.
And just for the record, it appears that Waluigi will be re-rated with Rex on day 499, unless either of them ends up being the next fighter. Speaking of which, if Rex or Waluigi get revealed before we reach them, we'll just be doing them solo, right? Or will the get folded into whoever came before them?

Great question! Someone who knows the answer please let us know

This is indeed a great question, given the possibility of a reveal on Monday, but, speaking for myself, it's probably something that will be defined if and when it happens.

 

[Sid-cada]

Isaac

Chance - 0.5% - Golden Sun was once a respectable RPG, but after Dark Dawn, the series has gone on hiatus and hasn't been around at all. While the state Assist Trophies are now back in the air, Sakurai dodged the question. Right now, though, I think it's still a large obstacle, though perhaps one that can be overcome. Isaac might get in if we had more space, but right now the sheer outrage generated from Waluigi I think means that there isn't much space for Assist Trophy promotions if they are happening, especially one that hasn't quite reached Bajo levels of "He needs to be in!" He needs a new push to get in, as his fan base simply hasn't been enough at this point.

Want - 75% - Hey, he could have an earth move set, which we don't have yet. He could definitely be interesting.


Ashley

Chance - 0% - Ashley has been fairly popular, but WarioWare isn't quite the name that will be selling passes. Even if there were Assist Trophy promotions, Ashley is only a middle-tier among requests. Given how stiff the competition is right now, their isn't much room for a character that isn't crazy popular while not being active or having a fairly easy-to-adapt move set.

Want - 30% - Eh, there are more magic users that I am way more interested in. If I had to pick a WarioWare character, I'd rather have Mona.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Cadillac]

I believe she asks Byleth if he calls himself a man, which makes the subsequent reveal of female Byleth that much funnier.

It's actually:
"What? To many swordsman and we don't need more? Don't be a baby. You call yourself a man?"

It's that time again.

The Last Earthbender

Chance: 15%
I don't give characters high chances, and same goes for Isaac. He's from a dormant series with popularity focused on the west(I'm Korean, and almost nobody knew who Isaac was before he appeared as an AT in Ultimate). However, I feel he still has things going for him. Although his popularity is more western focused, it's huge, and he's one of the more longer requested characters. The trademark thing makes it better. GS trademark has Korea involved, and why would they involved my country when they never released GS in here before? I feel like they're doing a remake, or a new sequel. And the Smash addition is the best way to promote the character.

Want: 100%
Was never interested with him until the November 1st direct, and I was hooked. His gigantic hands to the earth magic, there's so much moves to make a moveset out of. Heck, I believe there's only 1 official art that has Isaac use his sword. In the others it's just sheathed on his back. With that, we can just make his moveset never use his sword. Make him a 'Swordfighter but also not' type of character. Of course this won't happen, but it will shut people up about the 'Anime Swordsman' thing.

Abstain on Ashley.

 

[Calamitas]

Assist Trophy: The First Earth Bender

Chance: 35%
Isaac's chances are. . . interesting. Spirits being back on the table helps, but Spring Man not being picked as the ARMS character does somewhat hurt his chances. The way that Sakurai explained why he wasn't picked makes it sound like being an Assist Trophy is no obstacle (which I'd also agree with), but there's still some nagging doubt left. That aside, there's the question of just how likely it really would be that Nintendo would go for Isaac, considering that the series is currently in its second hiatus spanning multiple years. Fan support definitely is there, but it remains to be seen whether it's enough.

Want: 85%
Not my most wanted by any means, but I did play the Golden Sun series a couple of years ago and enjoyed it. I'd like seeing Isaac (though I personally would prefer Felix).

That one girl from the song that's really getting on my nerves

Chance: 0%
Not seeing it. WarioWare has never been a super big series, and while there is some fan-support, it absolutely pales in comparison to that of other Assist Trophies. I would be very surprised if Ashley made it in.

Want: Abstain.
Not familiar with the WarioWare series, and not really interested in it either. No want score from me.

Predicting Gordon Freeman to get around 17.36%.
Predicting Heavy Weapons Guy to get around 19.82%.

Nominating Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character x5

 

[SharkLord]

Should we move on soon? It seems like the thread's becoming inactive again.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Should we move on soon? It seems like the thread's becoming inactive again.

They might be waiting in case the Direct is tomorrow.

 

[Lyncario]

Should we move on soon? It seems like the thread's becoming inactive again.

Probably, though Kelios (french buizel guy) said that the anouncement for the direct would be at 6 am cet, so maybe waiting a bit more before moving on could be a good idea.

 

[SharkLord]

They might be waiting in case the Direct is tomorrow.

Fair point. It'd be best to wait until we have more information.

 

[Jomosensual]

Yeah, pretty sure we're just waiting on a direct announcement/shadow drop right now. Assuming we'll move on once it becomes clear what's going on

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Yeah, pretty sure we're just waiting on a direct announcement/shadow drop right now. Assuming we'll move on once it becomes clear what's going on

yeah that’s The plan rn. There’s enough murmurs for tomorrow I don’t wanna shortchange a day.

 

[Sari]

On 7/20 we'll debut the first #NintendoDirect Mini: Partner Showcase, a series focused on titles from our development & publishing partners. We'll share a few updates on a small group of previously-announced #NintendoSwitch games. Check out the full video release at 7am PT. pic.twitter.com/GbEbxVL6fD

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) July 20, 2020

It's (sort of) happening people.

Day over.

I know it's a really short time frame buuuuut... to those that have time, write down your Direct predictions. When this is over we'll most likely be doing Direct reactions.

Megadoomer

EDIT: So it's apparently a third-party focused Direct. We might get something Smash related or nothing at all, but either way I don't think it'd hurt to do predictions since there hasn't been an Isaac/Ashley rating in a while.

 

[Jomosensual]

Quick predictions

Silksong(Please. Otherwise I'm worried this game is just dead)
No More Heroes
Smash reveal(50/50 on this)
Maybe a new game trailer at the end

IDK what we're even gonna be able to fit into 10 minutes. Guessing we're gonna have some saltyness after this though

Noms:
Riptor x5

 

[Perkilator]

All I can safely predict is no Smash reveal (even though I wanna hold on to what hope I have left). And maybe, hopefully, news on Bayo 3 and SMTV.

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

 

[SharkLord]

• Breath of the Wild 2
• Metroid Prime 4
• SMTV Yeah, like that's ever gonna happen
• No More Heroes 3
• Bayonetta 3
• Hollow Knight: Silksong
• Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (JUST GIVE ME THE DATE ALREADY)
• Turns out there's a first-party Direct on either the 27th or August 3rd, when more maintenance is being done.

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

My main prediction is disappointment

The rest is copied from my predictions on the main Newcomer Thread

Revised wishlist: Direct 2020 Edition

•Bravely Default 2, hopefully not looking like an Unreal tech demo by now
•KH music game, let's go
•No More Heroes III, gameplay debut (this is honestly likely, and probably the easy winner of the Direct)
•Bayo 3? SMT5? I've been hurt for too long to actually believe this
•Maybe we can get those canceled Sonic announcements, that'd be neat
•TWEWY 2 but probably not because I can't see them letting Bravely and this eat into each other's marketing
•uh
•hmm
•what other Switch games are there? Bakugan?
•Can Smash DLC count as an update for an existing game? That's the only way out I can see for this

I guess another thing could be Silksong maybe though if they only have 10 minutes I'mma be pretty pissed if there's indie games on it

Anyway I nominate Tidus, yeah he's just Tidus today I can't be angry at him when Nintendo's being the idiots

 

[SharkLord]

Just a reminder:
Third parties AND previously announced games, not previously-announced third-parties. We could still get something from Nintendo. Plus, partners could include subsidiaries.

 

[Sari]

Direct Predictions

I'm not expecting any first party games since this is stated to be a partner showcase. With that said:

• No More Heroes 3
• Bayonetta 3
• SMT V
• TWEWY 2
• Some wacky new third party game that features characters/locations from a Nintendo series
• Third party ports like the Tomb Raider collection that got leaked a while back
• I don't think a Smash reveal will happen, but if I had to place my bets on one then I'd go with Crash
• Nintendo leaves us in the dark by not announcing when a first party showcase will take place
• An insane amount of from just about everyone

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[DaUsername]

Never and Ever
Chance (for both): 0%
They're Assist Trophies. Second sentence. Third sentence. Four-okay but seriously, I don't see any AT upgrades happening. I know we just had a Spirit become playable, but there's a big difference between a playable character that also has an event match .png and a playable character that's also a non playable character summoned from an item. Even then, neither character is very likely anyway. Golden Sun has been in the Nintendo Graveyard for a decade and while there was a point a few years ago where Nintendo was promoting the heck out of Ashley, they just kinda stopped.

Isaac Want: 50%
I never really understood much of the appeal for this guy. But he's a non-FE Nintendo character, and he was screwed out of being in P:M, so I want him in for those reasons alone.

Ashley Want: 60%
I love the WarioWare series and I'd be okay with pretty much anyone from there becoming playable. If she weren't already an AT she'd be the most obvious choice. Oh well, maybe next time.

Gordon prediction: 10%, for some messed up reason.
Heavy prediction: 15%, for some even more messed up reason.
Noms: Dr. Goomba Tower x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Hollow Knight Silksong
Bravely Default II
No More Heroes 3
Bayonetta 3
A third-party as FP7
SMTV
.....
Yeah, these are moreso desperate hopes than realistic predictions. I just want this Direct to contain SOMETHING of importance.
Deltarune content x5

Silksong(Please. Otherwise I'm worried this game is just dead)

It's not since they've been giving us drips of new info like new characters recently.
Atleast from what I've heard since I wanna go in as blind as possible and try to avoid any news.

 

[SharkLord]

Hollow Knight Silksong
Bravely Default II
No More Heroes 3
Bayonetta 3
A third-party as FP7
SMTV
.....
Yeah, these are moreso desperate hopes than realistic predictions. I just want this Direct to contain SOMETHING of importance.
Deltarune content x5

It's not since they've been giving us drips of new info like new characters recently.
Atleast from what I've heard since I wanna go in as blind as possible and try to avoid any news.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Previously announced games get release dates AND third-parties. Not both at the same time, though there very well could be some overlap (NM3, BD2, SMTV-pfft). There could still be something like BotW2 or Pikmin 4, maybe Metroid Prime 4 if development has been going smoothly. Don't lose too much hope.

 

[Troykv]

On 7/20 we'll debut the first #NintendoDirect Mini: Partner Showcase, a series focused on titles from our development & publishing partners. We'll share a few updates on a small group of previously-announced #NintendoSwitch games. Check out the full video release at 7am PT. pic.twitter.com/GbEbxVL6fD

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) July 20, 2020

It's (sort of) happening people.

Day over.

I know it's a really short time frame buuuuut... to those that have time, write down your Direct predictions. When this is over we'll most likely be doing Direct reactions.

Megadoomer

EDIT: So it's apparently a third-party focused Direct. We might get something Smash related or nothing at all, but either way I don't think it'd hurt to do predictions since there hasn't been an Isaac/Ashley rating in a while.

Mostly Third-Parties, though it seems we would have updates about already released games... so...

My main predictions are this too:

- New information about NMIII and BDII
- A new update for Animal Crossing

Potentially a Smash invitation, maybe?.

Perhaps we finally have news about one of the "announced but still in TBA date" games like Bayonetta 3 and BotW2? Unlikely, but who knows.

 

[amageish]

Eh, I'm weak for predictions. I'll jot down some hot takes.

- No More Heroes III feels the most likely
- Other announcements are from either SEGA, Capcom, Koei, or prolific indies
- Some of said games are ports
- Nothing first-party and, if it is, then it is related to the third-party announcements announcements (ex/ Monster Hunter World port and they add back the Monster Hunter crossover content into Animal Crossing)

The statement could allow for first-party stuff, but it's also 10 minutes long and I just don't know how they'd justify the "Partner Showcase" title if it also had multiple meaningful first-party announcements. Even if it was just BotW2, then that would dominate the discussion around it and make it not much of a Partner Showcase.

Noms?: Moogle x5? Are we nomming things, kupo?
Predictions: The announcements are mostly decent, but people are angry as they don't announce all the Mario games and other things people were expecting. This Direct somehow just makes people thirstier for Nintendo news.

 

[SirCamp]

So I never actually rated Isaac earlier. I don't often post here (I don't post in any thread often tbh) so it kind of passed me by, but I do want to note how interesting I find the absolute gulf in ratings between the posters who obviously came from the Isaac thread and the ones who did not. I'll admit I watch the Isaac thread as I am a huge proponent of Isaac in Smash and so I was aware of the goings on with respect to the trademark and whatnot. And while I have been convinced at this point that Nintendo does seem to have some sort of plan with Golden Sun, I truly don't know what that plan might be. Nor whether that would actually lead to Isaac in Smash or not. Anyway, all of this rambling is just to say that there is a lot of, shall we say, optimism, on the one hand and on the other, there are a lot of people who don't even give Isaac a second thought. Truly I think reality lies somewhere in between.

Basically I would rate Isaac at somewhere between 10-15%. Not overwhelmingly likely, but he certainly stands a reasonable chance. Enough that I think it would be remiss to dismiss him out of hand as some people have. At this point ATs could go either way, but given what happened with Min Min I actually lean towards promotion being a possibility. If the team wants to make a character playable they will, simply put. It just means that there has to have been something that changed between release and now. Which would easily be explained away with a new game release or a rerelease. Having said that, as much as the new trademark bodes well, it is not a guarantee. And further, neither is a new game a guarantee that Isaac makes it in to Smash. So the ratings that are at 50% or even higher seem unwarranted to me.


On a separate note, the new direct! Given that the direct is apparently going to be focusing on already announced games and games by subsidiaries I think people are on the right track already. Though I will say given that it is apparently 10 minutes, I wouldn't expect much. But anyway here are my thoughts:

BotW2
Bravely Default 2
SMTV
Silksong
NMH3
Bayonetta 3
Metroid Prime 4
Pikmin 4
RuneFactory 5

So of note, I think people are sleeping on Rune Factory 5 making an appearance in this direct. Mostly because it was announced a while ago at this point and conveniently both of the other games that were announced alongside it have since been released. This is a perfect time to start fleshing out the next release (also I just really hope we see this one! lol). And the other game of note on my list, I just want to point out that technically Pikmin 4 has already been announced, just not for Switch. Probably won't happen, but it would be cool to see. Anyway, I don't expect all of those titles to show up, but some number of them I imagine will be included. Also, given the language in the announcement I don't know that I expect any Smash announcements. Hopefully I'm wrong, we shall see tomorrow I guess.

 

[Jomosensual]

Hollow Knight Silksong
Bravely Default II
No More Heroes 3
Bayonetta 3
A third-party as FP7
SMTV
.....
Yeah, these are moreso desperate hopes than realistic predictions. I just want this Direct to contain SOMETHING of importance.
Deltarune content x5

It's not since they've been giving us drips of new info like new characters recently.
Atleast from what I've heard since I wanna go in as blind as possible and try to avoid any news.

Oh cool, had no idea that was happening. Not gonna search them out because I want to go in blind too but good to know

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Considering this is a possibly 3rd party-focused Direct, my biggest bet is honestly a Fallout 4 port. A Nintendo-exclusive Bethesda game listing on Amazon FR and Vault Boy's Mii Costume having the Vault 111 jumpsuit point to it for me. Also possibly Doom Eternal's Switch release date and something like Elder Scrolls Legends or maybe a Morrowind/Oblivion port.

As for first party stuff, the thing I'm going to put my cards on is Animal Crossing updates (since the direct is focused on existing games), with detail given on the upcoming August Summer Update #2. Not predicting anything big like BoTW2 showing up due to being a short Direct Mini. That is something they'd save for a bigger livestreamed Direct.
Also some indie stuff related to Nintendo like Silksong could make an appearence but that's a coin toss.

Not expecting another ARMS-esque prediction game this time around since there aren't a lot of possible franchises with ensemble casts.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

So of note, I think people are sleeping on Rune Factory 5 making an appearance in this direct. Mostly because it was announced a while ago at this point and conveniently both of the other games that were announced alongside it have since been released. This is a perfect time to start fleshing out the next release (also I just really hope we see this one! lol). And the other game of note on my list, I just want to point out that technically Pikmin 4 has already been announced, just not for Switch. Probably won't happen, but it would be cool to see. Anyway, I don't expect all of those titles to show up, but some number of them I imagine will be included. Also, given the language in the announcement I don't know that I expect any Smash announcements. Hopefully I'm wrong, we shall see tomorrow I guess.

Yeah no Rune Factory 5 is 100% happening I'd say. People probably just forgot about it since it's been a while since the announcement and it doesn't have the name power of something like Bayonetta to keep it in people's minds.

 

[Calamitas]

. . .Yeah, not doing any predictions for this. I'm not really expecting much of anything, considering what other insiders have already said about this Mini Direct.

Nominating Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character x5

 

[fogbadge]

i got 0 ideas for this direct so im just gonna abstain and nominate nate adams x5

 

[Lyncario]

This is going to be a wishlist rather than predictions, because I know very well that I already used up all of the cosmic luck I had so that the direct got anounced 14 hours later than usual.

SMTV
Bayo 3
Bravely Default 2
Touhou Luna Nights
Touhou AoCF
Silksong
A new Kirby

I still nominate an SMT rep for 5.

 

[NintenRob]

I predict a lot of Zzzzzs from me, I'm not staying up for that disappointment. I'll watch it in the morning.


Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

 

[Megadoomer]

The Direct is only ten minutes long and focusing on games that have already been announced.

I'm expecting release dates for Doom Eternal and No More Heroes 3. Maybe a trailer for Bayonetta 3 (it's been THREE YEARS), though that seems unlikely.

I don't know whether the Smash developers count as a development partner, so I'm not sure if there will be a Smash trailer/teaser, though I'd obviously love for one to be shown.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Predictions

No More Heroes 3 release date
Hollow Knight Silksong
Bayonetta 3 info
Fallout collection for Switch
No Smash reveal

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Predictions:

-No More Heroes 3 release date
-Small update on Metroid Prime 4
-Update on Bayonetta 3
-Update on Breath of the Wild 2
-Ninjara update
-Nothing Smash related.

That's about all the time we got, there's only ten minutes apparently.

 

[fogbadge]

what is this SMTV you are all referring to? cause it cant be what i think it is

 

[Sari]

what is this SMTV you are all referring to? cause it cant be what i think it is

Shin Megami Tensei V

 

[AceAttorney9000]

My predictions for the Direct Mini (aside from Rogue Company, which the official twitter account for that game spoiled that they'll be in the Direct), most of which will likely be wrong...

• No More Heroes 3 trailer and release date
• Bayonetta 3 trailer and release date
• Bravely Default II trailer and release date
• Doom Eternal Switch port trailer and release date
• Smash reveal trailer of Fighter 7 with no gameplay
• A message at the end telling everyone to tune in to another Direct next week on the 27th