Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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I don't believe that "no room" is a valid argument, and it doesn't put your post in a great light where you bunch both Bandana Dee and Magolor into the same explanation without bothering to give specific reasoning for either. Finally, calling Magolor the "other guy" removes any accreditation one may have had for your post; you can't say he won't get in without bothering to add his actual name. I don't think that this rate should be included in the final tally if the post is left as is. If you could edit the post and provide reasoning, that would be a really appreciated step towards crediting your rate, thanks.
Technically, they’re giving four sentences for two ratings, so they’re complying with Rule 2. Still, it’s up to Phantom whether the ratings are counted or not.

In-depth arguments are always appreciated though!
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Bandana Dee
Chance: 20% - He definitely has a decent amount of support and a pretty vocal fanbase, but I'm not sure he really has what the devs are looking for in newcomers this time around. Sakurai and the Smash team seem to be pulling for a lot of iconic, heavy-hitting, hype-inducing new characters and I don't really see him being included over some of the other more anticipated characters.

Want: 0% - To me, he'd be one of the most boring additions to the roster ever. I think the Kirby franchise is perfectly represented with the 3 characters we already have right now. Dee just screams Assist Trophy IMO, mainly due to his severe lack of moveset potential. The whole "we need a spear-user" argument has never made a lick of sense to me. So he can poke people with a spear and throw it. Amazing... :glare: His moveset in SSF2 just proved to me how boring of a character he'd be. I wouldn't really care if he did somehow make it in as I'm sure many people would be happy, but I'd never use him.

Magolor
Chance: 5% - I've honestly never even heard of this guy, and I've played my fair share of Kirby games. But apparently he's popular in Japan, so I guess he has a little bit of a chance, but not much.

Want: 0% - Don't know anything about him, so I can't really say I'd want him. If we were to get a Kirby villain though, I'd rather have Marx. But like I said, I seriously think Kirby as a series is already well-represented with the existing characters we have.
 

Erureido

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Bandana Dee

Chance: 60% --> 60%

Let's look back at what I said last time.

He has become more popular and prominent over the years, especially with the major roles he's been given in several Kirby games. The only major issue is if Sakurai sticks with his bias for the pre Kirby Air Ride days of the Kirby franchise and thus ignore Bandana Dee for Smash, but with the Smash Ballot being a thing, Sakurai might very well think twice.
The Sakurai bias still holds true as a potential detriment, though he did finally change King Dedede's Final Smash to Masked Dedede from Super-Star Ultra, a game that was made after he left HAL Laboratory, so I don't think Sakurai will completely ignore him. Bandana Dee also still has a sizable fanbase amongst the Smash community, and with Sakurai focusing on adding characters that have decent to strong popularity to them, I'd say that helps Bandana Dee a bit. As it stands though, I think 60% still feels appropriate for him.

Want: 100% --> 100%

Copy and pasting what I said last time:

Of course! Spear fighters in Smash would be cool to see, and Bandana Dee is no exception. I feel like his moveset from Return to Dreamland and Star Allies could perfectly translate to Smash.
------

Magolor

Chance: 10%

I'm doubtful Magolor will show up. While he is popular in Japan and has had made some major appearances/cameos following his debut in Return to Dreamland, he still has to compete with other Kirby candidates like Marx, Dark Matter, Susie, and even Bandana Dee, the last of which easily trump all of them when it comes to popularity and starpower in his home franchise.

Want: 0%

Meh, I don't have any particular attachment to Magolor. Never cared for him all that much other than having a fun and epic final boss battle. I'd rather have Bandana Dee or Susie for another Kirby rep.

------

Abstaining from predictions.

------

Nominations:

Leo (Fire Emblem Fates): x5
 

Lord-Zero

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Bandanna Waddle Dee
Chance: 9%
- Possible but even so it has competition.
Want: 0%
- It’s not Susie.

Magolor
Chance & Want: Abstain
- I know way too little about the character.

Predictions
Dixie: 4.7%
Shantae: 10.5%

Nomination
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x5
 
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Cabbagehead

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Bandanna Dee
Chance: 65%
Want: 75%

If a new Kirby character gets in, it will be Bandanna Dee. He has become the fourth in the reoccurring quartet that also consists of Kirby, King Dedede, and Meta Knight. As such, he is one of the few Kirby characters who isn't swapped out and doomed to the occasional Stone Kirby cameo after every game. HAL obviously intends to keep him around forever. One could make the case that he is on his way to becoming a Nintendo All-Star, if he isn't one already.

Outside of his appearances, Bandanna Dee has been shown to utilize his spear in a multitude of ways. It wouldn't be hard at all to make a moveset for him. And finally, I would be remiss to neglect his apparent popularity in Japan. That country obviously wants a new Kirby character (as is evidenced by BDee and Magolor's placements in fan polls). Kirby is also a series that can afford a fourth character. It is one of Nintendo's most notable franchises, after all.

However, Bandanna Dee does come with his own "cons". For starters, Sakurai might still be finnicky about "over-representing" his creation. Even if he isn't, Sakurai does seem to prefer to add Kirby content almost exclusively from games he worked on, and while Bandanna Dee is technically a Sakurai-created character, he wasn't made truly relevant until the newer Kirby games. This could certainly put Dee at a disadvantage, making him lower priority than other considered newcomers.

I have been a huge fan of Kirby since I was the littlest baby boy, so new Kirby characters are always welcome. That being said, I am personally more interested in Marx, so my want score mostly comes from my love for Kirby and the satisfaction that would come with seeing a large swath of people happy with their favorite character making the cut.

Magolor
Chance: 10%
Want: 20%

Magolor, to my knowledge, is a significantly popular character in Japan, but not to the same extent as Bandanna Dee. Unlike Dee, however, Magolor is one of those Kirby characters that I mentioned already. You know, the ones that show up in a game (and, in Magolor's case, a 20th Anniversary collection, as well), only to be offed immediately afterwards and occasionally resurface via quaint cameos. That being said, he isn't quite as integral to Kirby as Bandanna Dee has become.

As far as moveset potential goes, I could definitely see Magolor being a sort of space-themed mage. Something like that might cut in on my boi Marx, but objectively, it would be something different and unique.

Again, I welcome Kirby characters by default, but he's low on my list of personal priorities.
 
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Bandanna dee
Chance: 25% - It’s going to be difficult for me to hand out any high ratings from now on. I imagine we’re getting very close to the end of the base roster and I’m not expecting many spots left. Bandanna Dee is very popular pick among Kirby fans and he has been getting a variety of important roles in recent games, he has a decent chance.
Want: 60%

Magalor
Chance: 1% - I honestly can’t imagine him getting in ahead of Bandanna Dee. Although he definitely has some level of popularity in Japan, he’s still just one of many one-shot villains in the series who’ve received only minor roles since then.
Want: 20%

Nominations: Edelgard x5
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Bandanna Waddle Dee:
Chance: 50%
I'd say it's a coin toss at this rate. Bandanna Dee has become the Kirby series' Fourth Musketeer, and has plenty of potential to draw from thanks to his Spear. However, it all depends on whether Sakurai himself thinks that his old series is fine enough with Kirby, Meta Knight and Dedede, but I imagine if there's plenty of fan-demand for it, then I'm guessing he'll do what he can to add BWD as a newcomer.

Want: 75%
I would not object to BWD's inclusion at all! A spear-user would be very refreshing to see since we've plenty of sword-fighters, and Kirby is one of my favourite Nintendo series. He's not my most wanted, and I wouldn't be too disappointed if he doesn't make it this time, but I think he's a welcome addition in my book.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Day over. Abstaining for reasons, mainly tired.

Only two more fixed days, we return to regular programming on Thursday night.
 
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Shantae
Chance 0%
Want 0%
Indie character and very limited space. And I'm still convinced there are more stages. There are just much higher priorities right now and I don't think there's room for an indie

Dixie
Abstain
I'm abstaining simply because I have no clue. She warrants being unique like Isabelle but she could also be an echo after Chrom showed off his unique up b. She warrants being in absolutely but we also got King K Rool so maybe they'll put priority elsewhere since DK got a newcomer already, especially if Sakurai thinks she should be unique.

Basically, she should be in, don't if she will be.


Nominate no more stages x5
 

Sari

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Dixie Kong

Chance: 75%
After Ken and Shadow, I think Dixie is the most likely echo/semi-clone. She is one of Nintendo's all-stars and is very popular in general.

Want: 100%
I love the DKC games and I think Dixie is long overdue to appear as a fighter. That said, I think she deserves more than to simply be an echo of Diddy.

-----

Shantae

Chance: 1% 5%
If Shovel Knight couldn't make it in then I doubt Shantae could. There's also rumors of her just being an assist trophy, not to mention I don't think she's as heavily requested in Japan.

EDIT: I was not aware of all the silence from WF regarding Shantae in Smash as well as other various hints so I upped up the chance to 5%.

Want: 100%
I love the Shantae games and I think she would fit in perfectly with the rest of the cast.

-----

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5
 
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Whoa, this is my day.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 50%
It's really hard to say. I expected her first if both she and K. Rool were in, but that's certainly not happening.

Want: 100%
She's been at the top for me ever since Lucina was revealed. An Isabelle-level semi-clone is fine, but an echo would be the most disappointing thing ever for me.


Shantae
Chance: 30%
There is circumstantial evidence lending to the belief that she is definitely present in the game in some form. What that form is I can't say, but playable is certainly possible. And regardless, "If Shovel Knight couldn't make it in..." is the dumbest bandwagon reason against her I'll ever hear. Shovel Knight's AT has no bearing on Shantae's chances.

Want: 98%
Just below Dixie (and a couple others who stand no realistic chance), but still up there in my most-wanted.
 
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Dixie Kong

Chance: 55%
She's been a heavily requested character for a long time and has a decent shot. However, there are other characters higher up in popularity and she has a fair bit of differences from Diddy Kong, making it difficult to make her an echo and there aren't that many newcomer slots left.

Want: 1%
I've never really been a Dixie Kong fan, but I can think of worse characters to get in.


Shantae

Chance: 65%
She may be an indie character, but she's been around longer than Shovel Knight and has a sizable following in the West. Her weaker following in Japan however, may hold her back.

Want: 75%
She's probably around sixth on my list, but I think that she would have a very interesting moveset that would be fun to play with. First though, I need Bandana Dee, Isaac, and a Xeno rep.
 

Shadow Novus

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Oct 10, 2013
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Dixie Kong

Chance: 50%
Pretty sure her inclusion is a literal coin flip at this point, what with K.Rool being in, but I don't know enough about her situation to make any other calls.

Want: 0%
This not me saying she's a bad character! Just that I have no personal investment in the Donkey Kong series or it's characters (though it was cool to see K. Rool make it).

Shantae

Chance: 75% (playable, or in game in some capacity like an assist, etc)
I want to believe Shantae's chances of being in the game at all are better than people are giving her credit for. However again, it might as well be a coin flip if Sakurai decides to make her playable. She also has a chance of showing up as an assist. Something I and many find that points to her being in the game at all is the fact that her franchise's company Wayforward and her Creator Matt Bozon went hard on the ballot, and after the ballot ended and they gave a shoutout celebrating all their fans, they avoided the subject since, and this is company that is constantly interacting with their fans for even small things. But bring up Shantae in Smash and they are dead silent when before they weren't, which you could argue points to being under an NDA.

Something to remember is despite the fact we have all these self imposed fan rules about character inclusion (relativity, popularity, moveset potential, etc) at the end of the day we don't really have an ironclad criteria on how Sakurai chooses fighters. If he looks at a character, decides they would be a good fit, he'll make that character work, and the ballot definitely brought Shantae and many others to his attention.

Want: 100%
Yeah I'm not going to pretend I don't have any bias. While I'm trying to temper my expectations, this is the character I want the most, to the point where Sakurai could literally add Goku and Shrek and I would not give a single flip because I would be too happy about Shantae making it to care.
 
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Strider_Bond00J

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Dixie Kong:
Chance: 70%
For a long time, it was always a contest between King K. Rool and Dixie as a Donkey Kong newcomer, but now that K. Rool's finally here (performing for you) Dixie's biggest competition is now gone. She's been a popular character request, and has been considered before since she was part of the Forbidden Seven back in Brawl. With Isabelle being a semi-clone newcomer, I guess it wouldn't be too big of an issue to make Dixie a semi-clone of Diddy while still giving her the unique charm she has through her hair abilities. I think it all comes down to whether or not they decided to go for broke on K. Rool then decided that maybe they'll throw in Dixie as a semi-clone like they did with Isabelle.

Want: 70%
I wouldn't be too disappointed if she missed out again, but at this point, I think Dixie Kong would be a nice addition to wrap up the Donkey Kong representation in Smash Bros. If you asked me which DK character I want next, it'd probably be her.

Shantae:
Chance: 30%
Shovel Knight is in the game as an Assist Trophy, so that's one of her biggest competitors for the potential Indie Smasher down. She's been a popular request since the start of the Ballot and has a good amount of popularity in Japan and the West. However, maybe her being an Indie character might not be enough for her to make the cut compared to the All-Star third party characters we have, so maybe she might get an honourable Assist Trophy inclusion as well.

Want: 50%
Neutral on her, but if she makes it in as a playable character that would be quite a spectacle.

Nominating: Incineroar X5 (Don't know if we've already done them before, but here goes, if not send those 5 noms to Mute City Melee instead if it's still not confirmed)
 
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So, before nominations, I want to address what pretty much has become the talking point of the Smash speculation scene: the Corocoro magazine, and its apparent debunking of the 103-stage theory.

As far as I’m concerned, No More Stages is hard disconfirmed. However, I have seen people suggesting the possibility of 108 being a typo. While I think it’s incredibly unlikely that is the case (and grows unlikelier with each day that no corrections are issued), I want to hear what you have to say.

Do you feel I should remove No More Stages from the list?

Without further ado...

Jin Kazama x390
Ninten x373
Terry Bogard x362
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x325
Gardevoir x325
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x310
Django (Boktai) x300

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x277
Rowlet x275
Nathan Drake x275
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x246
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x237
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
No More Stages x211
Amaterasu x201

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x185
Papyrus x180
Rick/Coo/Kine x174
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x167
Louie x165
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x165
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Item: Beast Ball x148
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Barbara the Bat x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x127
2B x126
Dovahkiin x120
Reimu Hakurei x120
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x110
Zeraora (Pokemon) x110
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Edelgard x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
Chorus Kids x72
Yu Narakumi x71
Silvally x69
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Black Knight as a boss character x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x33
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25
Master Chief x25
Leo (Fire Emblem) x25

Under 25

Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Box Theory x16
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Concept: DLC character pass x15
Concept: Cross series Echoes x15
Kyo Kusanagi x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Big Boss x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
The Prince (Katamari) x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Quote x1

Amaterasu finally pushes past 200 nominations!

Leo reaches 25 noms.

And of course, our new nominee is the infamous Box Theory, bursting into the scene with 16 nominations (and would have been higher, had it not been for so many people not having their nominations counted. Remember guys, 2 sentences per score!)

I fused the nominations for Box Theory, the similar Box Hypothesis, and their antithesis Concept: Box Theory Being Fake.

Here’s hoping this one gets disconfirmed faster than No More Stages!

By the way: TODAY IS THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE TOP SEVEN ARE LOCKED DOWN
 

Shinuto

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Shantae

Chance: 50%
Going purely on appearing in playable form, I believe at this point its a 50-50 shot. Either she, or she isn't. All the circumstantial evidence of Wayforwar and Matt not responding to the easily at this point HUNDREDS of confirmed tweets I've seen people prove they've sent about Smash related stuff and its ALL basically been ignored unless it also referenced something else or more generally had a piece of fanart in the tweet to focus on. Since the ballot has ended they've not once straight up deconfirmed or openly discussed Shantae's chances, their hopes to get her into Smash (like YCG did with Shovel Knight in June in a retweet, two months before being revealed as an AT mind you) The Jammies Mode DLC that was added for free at the end of July also has numerous possible allusions to Smash with the word choice in it. It is however still all circumstantial, but I do think it points to her at the very least BEING in Smash to some capacity. Playable status however is a whole nother ball game.

Want: 1000%! Number one Dream Pick back in 2014, 'nuff said.

Dixie

Chance: 60% I see as an easy echo for Diddy, and she is popular in the DKC franchise and is relevant. We've seen with Chrom that echoes don't have to be 1 to 1 moveset wise with their counterparts so Dixie can still ahve own uniqueness that gives a sort of flair to stand out amongst the other Kongs.

Want: 50% My want for Dixie has increased since K. Rool was confirmed and I no longer have to worry about the two trying to take space in DK reps, given Ultimate's "don't expect too many newcomers here" I'm neutral to Dixie having no nostalgia for her since I only ever owned the first DKC game. Still I think she would make a neat addition.
 
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Dixie Kong:
Chance: 50%-She's popular, that's for sure. Probably not hard to make as an echo of Diddy either.
Want: 5%-I find myself quite satisfied with King K. Rool as a Donkey Kong newcomer. Wouldn't hate her, but wouldn't be excited either.

Shantae:
Chance: 10%-With Shovel Knight's presence and guest characters in mind, I'm sure she can appear in a way. Leaning towards the possibility of her being an Assist Trophy though.
Want: 0%- So. No. Thanks. Seriously, I don't find any sort of appeal in her, and her "history" with Nintendo is non-existent to me. Last time I heard anything related to the character but not to Smash was in a video about obscure Capcom games, that's just how overrated I come to find her, and I sure don't think finding dates on Wikipedia articles is a good reason to call her "iconic" or "important" to a company like the Big N, or to put her in the same standards as any of the guests that are currently in the game.

Nominations: DLC character pass x5
 
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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,070
Dixie

Chance: 90%
One of the safest bets you could make even before E3. After the announcement of Echoes and the fanservice focus her chances shot up, and Isabelle confirming semiclones are a thing rockets her up to a point where I think she might be the most/second most likely newcomer. Definitely top 3.

Want: 100%
You may recall me yesterday calling her a Nintendo All-Star. She is. Should have been in Smash long ago. (Though I am glad Sakurai didn’t make that Diddy-Dixie tag team in Brawl, otherwise we’d be stuck with that, Falcondorf style.)
Also her game is awesome. That is all.

Shantae
Chance: 11%
I was going to say ‘If Shovel Knight can’t get in neither can her’ and rate 1%. But I guess she does have a chance. She has a few points over SK. Seniority. History. Nintendo exclusivity (I think? Until Half-Genie Hero at least I’m certain) Multiple games. However, her sales, iconic status, and ballot support are all lower than SK’s in the West (and while probably higher in the East, it’s still negligible). I also just don’t think indies and western third parties will be in Smash, bar some Rayman-esque lip service.

Want: 25%
To be honest, indies go against everything I think a third party should be to get in Smash: iconic. By definition, an indie can’t really be iconic, or at least not as iconic as, say, Snake. However, I can be satisfied and make exceptions when some conditions are met. Like Bayo and Geno, who to me are basically first party characters even if they’re not iconic. Geno also satisfies me by virtue of being highly demanded. So I guess Shantae would go that route as well, and I certainly like her games so I’m cool with that.

But the score is still pretty low because I think there are some third parties I think should get over her (Wright and Layton come to mind), and I wouldn’t want her taking over Prince Sable’s niche, as he is my most wanted character period.

Nominations: Leox5
Erureido Erureido You helped me in my time of need, so now I return the favor.
 
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So, before nominations, I want to address what pretty much has become the talking point of the Smash speculation scene: the Corocoro magazine, and its apparent debunking of the 103-stage theory.

As far as I’m concerned, No More Stages is hard disconfirmed. However, I have seen people suggesting the possibility of 108 being a typo. While I think it’s incredibly unlikely that is the case (and grows unlikelier with each day that no corrections are issued), I want to hear what you have to say.

Do you feel I should remove No More Stages from the list?

Without further ado...

Jin Kazama x390
Ninten x373
Terry Bogard x362
Reinhardt Gets a Trophy x325
Gardevoir x325
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x310
Django (Boktai) x300

Over 200

Concept: Hanafuda Character x277
Rowlet x275
Nathan Drake x275
Concept: Disconfirmed Characters as DLC x246
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x237
Thwomp x226
Linkle x225
Ray (Custom Robo) x217
No More Stages x211
Amaterasu x201

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x190
DeMille x188
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x185
Papyrus x180
Rick/Coo/Kine x174
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x167
Louie x165
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x165
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155

150 - 101

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Item: Beast Ball x148
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Barbara the Bat x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x127
2B x126
Dovahkiin x120
Reimu Hakurei x120
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x110
Zeraora (Pokemon) x110
Raiden (Metal Gear) x105
Edelgard x105
Susie Haltmann x104
Daroach x102
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
Chorus Kids x72
Yu Narakumi x71
Silvally x69
9-Volt x67
Item: Breidablik x65
Black Knight as a boss character x65
Toon Zelda x64
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Concept: Wars Characters x53

50 - 25

Takumi (Fire Emblem) x50
Rhythm Girl x50
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Hilda (The Legend of Zelda) x40
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Earthworm Jim x39
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x33
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Sans as a boss character x25
Master Chief x25
Leo (Fire Emblem) x25

Under 25

Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
Box Theory x16
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Concept: DLC character pass x15
Concept: Cross series Echoes x15
Kyo Kusanagi x15
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Big Boss x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
[Rerate] Excitebiker x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Concept: SR388 Stage x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octolings x5
[Rerate] Gengar x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Joker (Persona) x5
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
The Prince (Katamari) x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Quote x1

Amaterasu finally pushes past 200 nominations!

Leo reaches 25 noms.

And of course, our new nominee is the infamous Box Theory, bursting into the scene with 16 nominations (and would have been higher, had it not been for so many people not having their nominations counted. Remember guys, 2 sentences per score!)

I fused the nominations for Box Theory, the similar Box Hypothesis, and their antithesis Concept: Box Theory Being Fake.

Here’s hoping this one gets disconfirmed faster than No More Stages!

By the way: TODAY IS THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE TOP SEVEN ARE LOCKED DOWN
Don't you dare take out No More Stages.

It's already so close to rating and there's good reason to believe CoroCoro was a mistake since it was suppose to covering the direct. They clearly screwed up somehow.
 
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Dixie Kong:

Chance: 70: Feel like she has a good shot. I don't know if I'm going to call her an all star, but I think she'll be here for sure. she's an easy choice for an echo fighter like Chrom and Daisy were, even though those might not be good comparisons since they'll probably have more similar abilites to their counterparts than Dixie would. Her and Funky are likely the next up for DK reps, and I'm gonna give Dixie the nudge for likely having a larger fan base

Want: 40: Never really cared about Dixie that much personally and adding K Rool gives me the DK rep I wanted the most by far. However, adding Dixie would beat adding another Dark ____ character that it seems like a lot of the echos could end up being, and we only need so many of those.

shantae

Chance: 30: Really think her case falls apart once you get past fan base. she's 3rd party, isn't close to iconic at all, I don't think she has much of a history on Ninetnedo games although I could be wrong on that , and most of her case is because a part of the fan base want an indie rep in the game. I brought this up with Banjo but I think it applies even more to characters like shantae or shovel knight more than him. I'm really not sure anyone outside of the hardcore smash community wants shantae in the game, and I really don't think every character in the game is coming from the ballot either, which hurts her stock a lot in my eyes.

Want: 0: Everything about shantae screams assist trophy at best to me and as a unique fighter this would be a wasted spot. If we're putting 3rd party characters in smash they need to be big names, or at least well known in video game circles, and I'm not even sure shantae would make a top 15 list of characters who aren't in smash. Outside of her inclusion being really cool for her fan base i just really don't see much here.

Nominations: Nathan Drake x5
 

Cabbagehead

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Dixie Kong
Chance: 75%
Want: 70%

A favorite from the original DKC trilogy, Dixie Kong certainly has her fans. She is arguably one of the last few "Nintendo All-Stars" left out of the roster. Her build is similar to that of Diddy, and while she might not have what it takes to be a flat-out Echo Fighter, Isabelle has made it quite obvious that semi-clones are still a thing. This could certainly work in her favor, the way that a similar development loophole has granted Jigglypuff perfect attendance in the Smash series.

On a more conspiratorial note, I would like to point out that DK and Metroid have been something of sister franchises in Smash, both getting a second rep in Brawl, being completely overlooked in Sm4sh, and then getting a fan-favorite villain in Ultimate. The difference between the two, of course, is the inclusion of Dark Samus for Metroid. Perhaps DK will see a "clone" character make the cut, as well...(again, this is merely a tin foil hat thought. It doesn't have a lot of significance in my score).

While I'm more of a K. Rool fan, I understand completely that Dixie is a staple of the DKC series that absolutely needs to be in Smash. I don't necessarily have a nostalgic connection to DKC, like I do with Animal Crossing or Kirby, but even as a small child, Dixie was easily recognizable. Not only does she have fans who would be made incredibly happy, but she's one of the few newcomers who could simultaneously appeal to the general/casual consumer base. That's a rarity that must be followed up on.

Shantae
Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

My initial critique of Shantae went on a little long, so I'll try to keep things succinct.

Pros:
- The first three games were Nintendo exclusives/timed exclusives.
- The character seems to do very well on Smash Ballot-related polls.
- Seniority among indie characters.

Cons:
- An indie character. So far, no indie character has managed to make the cut. While she might be the one to change that, nothing really points to that being the case.
- Would more than likely not appeal to a casual audience.
- Indie seniority doesn't actually mean anything. Significance to the industry does.
- Unlike other Smash-centric speculative darlings, Shantae isn't a very significant character to Nintendo or gaming in general. (Ridley is a major recurring antagonist from a series with few recurring characters; K. Rool is DK's main antagonist who was relevant until his disappearance in 2008, much to the chagrin of fans; Geno is a major protagonist from a critically-celebrated Nintendo/Square crossover that heavily influenced both Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi; Isaac is the most iconic character from a second-party series that was relevant up until only a few years ago; Banjo-Kazooie was essentially a second-party Nintendo character who helped shape the Nintendo 64.)

I'm abstaining from giving a personal want score in order to keep things short and prevent the world from being exposed to my vitriolic opinions on third-parties in Smash.
 
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Erimir

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Dixie Kong

Three significant developments since she was last considered:
  • K Rool confirmed!
    • But Dixie Kong not included in his trailer, which was a definite possibility, given how Robin and Lucina were handled in Smash 4
    • Overall, I can't decide whether this increases or decreases her chances, because while K Rool might've gotten in "over" Dixie, K Rool getting in also shows that Donkey Kong is getting some love. DK finally getting an AT fits that too...
  • More information about Echoes
    • Two important things there: Chrom shows a little more about how Echoes can differ - he has a totally different up special from Roy, and a somewhat different FS. So it's possible to differ more than Dark Pit.
    • Dark Samus also had more variation in animations than Lucina or Dark Pit. More importantly, Dark Samus wasn't revealed when Ridley was, showing that Dixie could still be revealed later.
  • Isabelle revealed but has significant similarities to Villager
    • shows that they might consider adding a character that's a semi-clone and wouldn't necessarily commit to making Dixie an Echo even if they might make her a clone. If they feel that she needs several moves using her hair but otherwise share most moves with Diddy, they might be fine with doing that
  • Ok, maybe four. I'd note that a somewhat credible leaker, Loz18 (gave some information about the August Direct, including describing the opening to K Rool's trailer, but got a fair amount of stuff wrong as well) said she had a high chance of being playable.
So I think it's possible we could see Dixie with a lot of moves the same as Diddy but with a unique up-B, dash attack, grab and other hair attacks (jab combo? a tilt?) and maybe a different gun (in Tropical Freeze she shoots gumballs instead of peanuts, maybe they bounce or something). A semi-clone seems more possible.

She has a chance to be a Chrom-like Echo, or a semi-clone. Maybe an outside chance to be completely unique, but I doubt it... The DK content in the game shows they're not ignoring this series as much as they have in past installments. I think two DK newcomers is more possible than I did before. Overall, I think her chances are about as much as they were before, with pluses and minuses mostly cancelling out.

Dixie chances: 50%
She would work pretty well as a Diddy clone - they could keep it in Echo territory with just a couple unique moves, or they could make her a semi-clone (Dr. Mario to Falco level). That is the most likely way she'd get in, as two unique DK newcomers seems pretty unlikely. It seems we'll probably get at least a few more Echoes, and Dixie would be one of the more obvious choices. But I'm hoping she will be different enough not to qualify as an Echo (but I'm ok with her being a clone/semi-clone)
Dixie want: 90%
After getting my top four (:ultridley::ultsimon::ultkrool::ultinkling:), Dixie Kong is basically my most wanted character at this point. Diddy's Kong Quest was so great.

Shantae
Shovel Knight has shown we can get more indie content in Smash than just trophies... But I dunno who's more successful, Shantae or Shovel Knight. Either way, I think the outcome for Shovel Knight is the most likely ceiling for Shantae: she could be an AT, but she probably won't be playable. It's also plausible she could be a trophy, or get no content at all.

She does ok on some US based polls, but I'm not sure how much popularity she has elsewhere. I don't think she matches the amount of desire that Little Mac or Ridley had from Western fans to get in without having much support in Japan. Nor does she make sense for promotional purposes, as her series is quite minor.

On the other hand, I would note she hasn't shown up in any platform fighter games as a guest character (unlike Shovel Knight). Her chances aren't zero... But I don't think they're particularly good.

Shantae chances: 3%
Shantae want: 35%
I don't have any attachment to the character.
 

ProtoTwi

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Dixie,
Chance 50%
Want. 50%, When L think DK, the first 3 characters i think of Are DK, Diddy and Lankey,
But a close 4th is Dixie, if she made it in I would be perfectly fine with it.

Shantae
Chance 50 Percent, Its a coin flip in my eyes, With how out of character Wayforward and Matt Bozon have been acting in regards to anything SmashBros it raises my eyebrow. IF there was to be a Playable Indie character it was bound to be Shovel Knight (the modern popular character) or Shantae (the Legacy character)
Want, 100%
With Mega Man already being in (and Protoman being in Mega's final smash), Shantae is really the only other character I would LOVE to see, Mechanically she has some very unique things to her (mainly her animal based transformations), and from a character and standpoint shes has a unique design/silhouette, highly expressive. And it doesn't hurt to have an extra female on the roster to help round that out


nominate Spring Man (From Mega Man 7) as an Echo for Spring Man (from Arms) X5
 
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Shinuto

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Dixie Kong
Chance: 75%
Want: 70%

A favorite from the original DKC trilogy, Dixie Kong certainly has her fans. She is arguably one of the last few "Nintendo All-Stars" left out of the roster. Her build is similar to that of Diddy, and while she might not have what it takes to be a flat-out Echo Fighter, Isabelle has made it quite obvious that semi-clones are still a thing. This could certainly work in her favor, the way that a similar development loophole has granted Jigglypuff perfect attendance in the Smash series.

On a more conspiratorial note, I would like to point out that DK and Metroid have been something of sister franchises in Smash, both getting a second rep in Brawl, being completely overlooked in Sm4sh, and then getting a fan-favorite villain in Ultimate. The difference between the two, of course, is the inclusion of Dark Samus for Metroid. Perhaps DK will see a "clone" character make the cut, as well...(again, this is merely a tin foil hat thought. It doesn't have a lot of significance in my score).

While I'm more of a K. Rool fan, I understand completely that Dixie is a staple of the DKC series that absolutely needs to be in Smash. I don't necessarily have a nostalgic connection to DKC, like I do with Animal Crossing or Kirby, but even as a small child, Dixie was easily recognizable. Not only does she have fans who would be made incredibly happy, but she's one of the few newcomers who could simultaneously appeal to the general/casual consumer base. That's a rarity that must be followed up on.

Shantae
Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

My initial critique of Shantae went on a little long, so I'll try to keep things succinct.

Pros:
- The first three games were Nintendo exclusives/timed exclusives.
- The character seems to do very well on Smash Ballot-related polls.
- Seniority among indie characters.

Cons:
- An indie character. So far, no indie character has managed to make the cut. While she might be the one to change that, nothing really points to that being the case.
- Would more than likely not appeal to a casual audience.
- Indie seniority only comes from the fact that her foray into the third-party market financially crashed so hard that she was put on ice for a few years until she became an indie character.
- Unlike other Smash-centric speculative darlings, Shantae isn't a very significant character to Nintendo or gaming in general. (Ridley is a major recurring antagonist from a series with few recurring characters; K. Rool is DK's main antagonist who was relevant until his disappearance in 2008, much to the chagrin of fans; Geno is a major protagonist from a critically-celebrated Nintendo/Square crossover that heavily influenced both Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi; Isaac is the most iconic character from a second-party series that was relevant up until only a few years ago; Banjo-Kazooie was essentially a second-party Nintendo character who helped shape the Nintendo 64.)

I'm abstaining from giving a personal want score in order to keep things short and prevent the world from being exposed to my vitriolic opinions on third-parties in Smash.
She didnt BECOME an indie character, that makes no sense given WF has ALWAYS been an indie company.
 

SupriceSupplies

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Dixie Kong:
Chance: 50%
Personally, when it comes to the base roster, I can see her inclusion both happening and not happening, and while Isabelle’s inclusion makes people believe she’s got a chance at becoming a semi-clone, King K. Rool’s introduction puts a damper on her unique chances I feel. Especially with Dark Samus also being an echo despite having a decent amount of moveset potential. If she’s left out of the base roster however, then we’ll talk. I can see her becoming a semi-clone DLC character at that point. But for basegame, I can’t see her not being an echo. And even then I feel like her chances are a coin flip.

Want: 5%
I’m not too interested in the Donkey Kong games and I don’t particularly like Diddy’s playstyle. So semi-clone or echo, can’t say I’m too excited about her.

Shantae:
Chance: 1%

I genuinely feel like Shovel Knight was the most popular indie choice during the ballot, especially with the Amiibo thing convincing people he was a lock at the time and seeing many people voting for him. I’m sure Shantae still had an audience, but not as big as on Shovel Knight’s level. Also, she’s a third party. And I can’t imagine us getting more than one more unique third party in the basegame. MAYBE she got a chance of being DLC? But I have doubts.
Want: 0%
I don’t hate her, but I never played any of her games, and there are many third parties I’d like to see get in over her. Also if we’re going to have a character who can transform, I’d just prefer Prince Fluff myself. (Who will never happen. ;-; )
 
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Dixie Kong

Chance 50%
I think it's highly possible, but likewise it's really hard to say whether or not it will happen. I'm really split on whether to be hopeful or cynical, hence the 50%

Want 100%
Dixie is the last character I really really really want. I mean, I kind of want a variety of characters, but Dixie is the super significant one that I feel truly deserves being part of this roster. To me the roster is 99% perfect after Ridley and K. Rool, Dixie would push it into 100% easily

Shantae

Chance 10%
I think after Shovel Knight there's a fair chance Shantae will be in this game in some form or other, and optimistic me thinks a small portion of that possibility is her being playful. Right now though, given where we are in the release cycle, I'm highly doubtful this would be for the base roster, but nevertheless I think there's a chance

Want 100%
While I don't want her as much as Dixie, this is another character whose games I thoroughly enjoy and who would be super fun to play as. Not just that, but the music from the Shantae series would be such a great addition to this game. It's kind of weird to me how Jake Kaufman is one of the great western game music writers that I don't believe has found his work in Smash, and should find his way there along with other great ones like David Wise and Grant Kirkhope.
 

Tikivoy

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Shantae: Chance: 27%

Honestly, with how HGH's jammies mode trailer was clearly referencing Ultimate, and the silence from Bozon and WF, I do think it's likely she's in the game in some form.
Still, a ton of Wayforward devs are huge Nintendo fans, a few of them even attending Smash stuff like the E3 roundtable. Which is why I feel even if her only cameo was an assist trophy, Wayforward would be excited enough to be hyping it up.

Want: 100% Happy HGH backer here~. Shantae in the game in any form would make me happy.


Dixie Kong: Abstain. I would say she's a coin flip, but really it'd depend on stuff we're unsure of, like if Diddy even has the pink color swap anymore.


Nomination:
Big Boss x5.
 
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Dixie Kong:
Chance 60%
Want 25%

If anything, Dixie's best shot in my eyes is as an echo, which is really an up in the air guess as to how many more we'll receive. I don't know too much about her in terms of history, but I do know she has a few things different about her enough to the point that it is a possibility that Sakurai could decide to make her a semi-clone of Diddy, a-la the recent edition of Isabelle, but I think her best shot is still as an echo at this late stage of the game. If she were implemented, it would be very awesome to see the DK Country trio and their main rival all together in this one Smash game, and I would at least like to see her get the Chrom treatment and have a few special moves that an echo wouldn't normally have.

Shantae:
Chance 65%
Want 100%

I'm a huge advocate for Shantae. Her quirky nature and buoyant outlook on life is something I love in a character, so it's no wonder once I was exposed to the series it skyrocketed to the top of my most wanted list. There are a lot of arguments against her pertaining to Shovel Knight's inclusion as an Assist Trophy, but I see that as more of a boost for her chances than anything. Sakurai has stated that one of the key things he looks for when developing a character is personality and expressiveness, which is difficult to emulate properly on a faceless and voiceless character like Shovel Knight. On the other hand, Shantae is the epitome of expressiveness and personality, where she not only has voice acting but a bright design along with some vibrant animations that lend to her character. It's also worth noting Sakurai would have no issue developing a move set for her due to her overabundance of powerups, transformations, and abilities she has in her games.

We know she had ballot support at the very least, as some of the fan polls online have shown. Wayforward, the series' developer, had a major campaign going back in the ballot period as well along with a new entry in the series brewing at the time, so it's fair to assume she had a good amount of attention and relevancy at the time of the ballot. Also, something I think a lot of people write off is the fact that Shantae's appearances in major relevant indie titles have tapered out in recent years during the development of Smash Ultimate to where she hasn't appeared in any fighting game crossovers whatsoever despite Shovel Knight clearly having no issue appearing in these titles even though he was an assist trophy in Smash Ultimate. Now it may be easy to just write this off as an executive decision by Wayforward, I beg to differ. Wayforward is the type of developer that values their fans more than anything in the world. The whole reason they even began a social media campaign for Shantae's inclusion was because they received messages saying that their fans wanted Shantae in the game. Not only that, but they've consistently time and time again been vocal about answering questions, sharing fan art, and even providing fans with free DLC for their game that nobody asked for as a thank you. If fans wanted Shantae in Rivals of Aether, Blade Strangers, or Indie Pogo, there is no doubt in my mind that they would have given permission in a heartbeat. The fact that they have not yet is odd at the very least. This isn't the only odd thing they've done recently though, as they've also been eerily silent on saying anything themselves about Shantae and Smash Brothers in the same sentence. They will retweet fan art that mentions it, but they will never say a single word about the topic themselves. It is honestly one of the most out of character things a vocal company like Wayforward could do, and I believe it points towards an NDA and a good chance of Shantae being barred from appearing as playable in these other indie fighters as well, being that she has never been in a fighting game before.

As such, I believe Shantae has a fair shot of appearing as a playable character in this game. There is a lot against her at this point, and most people who aren't a part of the Shantae support groups are either unaware of this evidence or have completely written off any chance of an indie being included other than Shovel Knight. Ultimately it all comes down to Sakurai, but I believe that Shantae has had the best chance out of any indie character that could have been viable for Smash this whole time, and with the character reveals winding down I am certain that she is either playable or an assist trophy.
 

Sari

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Ok so since some users (you know who you are) have been taking jabs at my 1% chance rating on Shantae where I bring up the Shovel Knight argument, I thought I should clarify it more:
  • Shovel Knight is arguably way more popular than Shantae, both in general as well in Smash demand. From what I understand he placed higher in the ballot, is more well-known in Japan, and his game sold more (or roughly the same copies) than HGH did.
  • Newcomer slots in general are very limited and being third party does not help. Not to mention there are some third party characters that Sakurai has considered in the past that have more evidence of being in Ultimate (namely Heihachi).
  • Being from an indie game does not help with the already limited third party slots, as they are generally reserved for more iconic roles who have a deep history with Nintendo and/or gaming in general. The only exception to this was Bayonetta who won the ballot, but if you're going on ballot votes than Shantae has a ton of competition with characters like Skull Kid, Geno, Bandana Dee, and Isaac who are way more requested on both sides of the world.
  • Some may try to argue that Simon isn't iconic which is nonsense, as the first three Castlevania games are some of the most well known NES games and the series is gigantic (hence the term metroidvania). As for Richter, he was added just because he'd be easy to make as an echo. The same goes for the other echoes in general.
  • Bringing things back to Shantae, her first game on the GBC was incredibly obscure and after Risky's Revenge her games stopped being Nintendo exclusive.
  • Combining all of the statements above, I don't see why Shovel Knight would be made an assist trophy while an arguably less popular indie character gets instapromoted to full on playable character.
This is not to say that she doesn't have a chance, and for all I know maybe Sakurai immediately fell in love with her character and instantly made her a fighter. Shulk was a similar case but he still made it into SSB4. I think Shantae has a very high chance of appearing as an assist trophy at the very least.

I should also clarify again that I do want Shantae in Smash! I fell in love with her games and WF in general after playing Risky's Revenge and Mighty Switch Force on the 3DS (this was before the Shantae in Smash train started to take off). That said, while I think her chances are incredibly low, I will be more than happy if I am wrong.
 
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Dixie Kong:

Chance 25%
Want 75%

I have to say I don't think she's terribly likely, but only because she doesn't seem like a viable Echo character to me and I don't think we'll get two unique DK movesets this game. Maybe she can keep the banana peel and the side B, but Dixie has never used Peanut Popguns or Rocket Barrels. Those moves at least would have to be reworked entirely, and so would many of the other abilities. I do think she's a possibility for DLC though, which is why I said 25%.

I would really welcome her inclusion, as the game can always use more cool DK characters and she was the best companion in both DKC2 and Tropical Freeze.

Shantae:
Chance 10%
Want 1%

Gotta be honest and say I've never played a Shantae game. They look fun but it's just not something I've gotten around to. And I hate to say it but none of the evidence I've seen points to her being more than an Assist Trophy. She just seems too minor to be a third party pick, and that's what it comes down to for me. Every other 3rd party character that has gotten in (with the possible exception of Bayonetta) has been an absolute titan in terms of either popularity, industry impact, or both.

While I don't particularly desire her or think she's likely, I do sympathize heavily with her fanbase, as I think she gets a lot of undeserved hate. Me not thinking she's likely or being particularly excited for her is not the same as me ragging on her as a character and to be honest it would be interesting to see what Sakurai could cook up in terms of movesets. I'm just giving my personal and unbiased opinion here as a neutral observer.
 
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Shinuto

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Shinuto
Ok so since some users (you know who you are) have been taking jabs at my 1% chance rating on Shantae where I bring up the Shovel Knight argument, I thought I should clarify it more:
  • Shovel Knight is arguably way more popular than Shantae, both in general as well in Smash demand. From what I understand he placed higher in the ballot, is more well-known in Japan, and his game sold more (or roughly the same copies) than HGH did.
  • Newcomer slots in general are very limited and being third party does not help. Not to mention there are some third party characters that Sakurai has considered in the past that have more evidence of being in Smash (namely Heihachi).
  • Being from an indie game does not help with the already limited third party slots, as they are generally reserved for more iconic roles who have a deep history with Nintendo and/or gaming in general. The only exception to this was Bayonetta who won the ballot, but if you're going on ballot votes than Shantae has a ton of competition with characters like Skull Kid, Geno, Bandana Dee, and Isaac who are way more requested on both sides of the world.
  • Some may try to argue that Simon isn't iconic which is nonsense, as the first three Castlevania games are some of the most well known NES games and the series is gigantic (hence the term metroidvania). As for Richter, he was added just because he'd be easy to make as an echo. The same goes for the other echoes in general.
  • Bringing things back to Shantae, her first game on the GBC was incredibly obscure and after Risky's Revenge her games stopped being Nintendo exclusive.
  • Combining all of the statements above, I don't see why Shovel Knight would be made an assist trophy while an arguably less popular indie character gets instapromoted to full on playable character.
This is not to say that she doesn't have a chance, and for all I know maybe Sakurai immediately fell in love with her character and instantly made her a fighter. Shulk was a similar case but he still made it into SSB4. I think Shantae has a very high chance of appearing as an assist trophy at the very least.

I should also clarify again that I do want Shantae in Smash! I fell in love with her games and WF in general after playing Risky's Revenge and Mighty Switch Force on the 3DS (this was before the Shantae in Smash train started to take off). That said, while I think her chances are incredibly low, I will be more than happy if I am wrong.
He is not more well-known in Japan, that game flopped over there, meanwhile Shantae has Chargumin figures over there.
 

Sari

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He is not more well-known in Japan, that game flopped over there, meanwhile Shantae has Chargumin figures over there.
I was not aware of this, my bad. My other comments about Shantae's overall notability, third party slots, etc. still stand though. Also for what it's worth I forgot to mention that SK had an amiibo which helps to show how popular he is.
 

Artix

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Dixie Kong

Chance: 25%
After King K. Rool, I don't think we're getting another DK character in Smash. I mean it's not like Dixie is not likely to get in or anything, but with the limited roster space and the fact that we still have other characters like Geno, Isaac, Ken and even Shadow to consider, I don't think there's a spot left for Dixie.

Want: Abstain
Don't know much about her, so I abstain.

Shantae

Chance: 1%
Shovel Knight already proved that indie characters can only get in as Assist Trophies, so I don't think Shantae might get in as a playable character in Ultimate. She does have the slight edge over Shovel Knight due to her more history with Nintendo, but even then, it's highly unlikely that she would get in because of that.

Want: 5%
Indie characters are great and all, but there are other characters that I want to get in first before any indie character. And by then, I would still prefer Shovel Knight over Shantae because of his popularity.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5
 
D

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Dixie - Chance: 20% - Want: 5%
I think K.Rool's inclusion heavily hinders her chances to get a spot in the base roster, and I don't see her plausible as an echo fighter of Diddy Kong. She will need an implementation of her DKC2-3-TF appearances to make sense to me.

As for my low want percent, she was my fave when I played the GB version of DKC2, but past that she's just gonna be pandering to some of my miniscule nostalgia for that game.


Shantae - Chance: 5% - Want 100%
I'm sorry fellow Shantae fans, but I don't see this happening. Not for a base roster, and also unlikely for future DLC. I feel the franchise is way too small to be regarded as important to video game history, even if the story behind the GBC game was a lot of fun to read up on. Shantae herself would have a great moveset, so she gets those 5% from me, but that's really just in base concept, and the rest will probably be based on the fanbases' heavy support of her.

As for my high want percent, you can probably guess I'm a big fan of her. I supported the kickstarter of Half-Genie Hero exactly because I wanted to see the series grow, and while it may have done so, I don't think it has been remarkably so.

At least it seems WayForward is growing as a company, which is good because that will mean they have more resources to do independent projects.
 

zferolie

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I was not aware of this, my bad. My other comments about Shantae's overall notability, third party slots, etc. still stand though. Also for what it's worth I forgot to mention that SK had an amiibo which helps to show how popular he is.
I would also like to say that SK's popularity I think is a bit over rated. During to ballot, his game was big news, so he could have gotten a lot of votes then. However, he only still has 1 game of his own, and I doubt sakurai would want to give a playable character slot to a character that we have no idea if will get more games or will stand the test of time. Shantae though has multiple games and been around for 15 years.
 

EarlTamm

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Shantae:
Chance: 60%
I think she has a good shot. I agree with a lot that has been said, but I wan to add something. While SK had just gotten his game out for a while by the ballot, so he was likely popular, Shantae also had a game come out later the same year as SK(Pirate's Curse), as well as being right in the middle of her next games development. Wayforward actually went all in on there campain to try and include her, running a huge twitter campain, emailing all 18,558 of there kickstarter backers about voting, included concept art for alts in a kickstarter update, and apparently did some campaigning on other sites like tumbler and such(I heard that last one). Honestly, I would not be surprised if Shantae got more votes than SK purely because of Shantae exposure during the time of the campain.
Want: 100%
Is tied with Geno as my most wanted. I actually voted for her during the ballot days, so I love seeing her chances be as good as they are.

Dixie
Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain
 
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BluePikmin11

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I think characters that are given the semi-clone treatment will be ones that have been significantly important to their respective franchises like Isabelle. Dixie Kong has been important to her franchise with the Rare DKC sequels and Tropical Freeze, gaining notable popularity in the ballot. She is big enough of a Nintendo all-star to be a semi-clone planned before echos helped filled in the gap of the roster. Isabelle helps me feel assured that not only Dixie will be in, but she is going to be given treatment above the echo level. I am very sure she is in now. I have been debating the past months about Dixie's clone status for quite a while, but Isabelle finally gives me high hopes. I think Isabelle and Dixie will be the only semi-clones in the roster (in a Wolf-Toon Link esque fashion, but being higher in priority like Lucas), but I think there could be one more.

---------------

x5 Hanafuda character
 
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LunarLiv

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Shantae:
Chance: 40%
There's some circumstantial evidence, she ticks all of the boxes of Sakurai's design philosophy from back in Brawl, WayForward's silence is super suspicious to me... Buut for the base roster I'm not so sure. She had one of the best rated games on the Gameboy Color! Buuut unfortunately she IS an Indie, she IS a third party character from an American franchise, aaaaaand there are bigger names floating around :/
I just hope she's a fighter and not an Assist Trophy ;~;
Want: 101%
She's my most wanted new character, she's fun, she has plenty of moveset potential, great music, and she'd mean a whole lot being an American character from an American franchise, as well as an indie character. I'm not sure how popular she is in Japan, but she and fellow cast member Rottytops do have cute hobby figures in Japan! I really hope this circumstantial evidence turns out to be true, and my cautious optimism was well placed! I'd main her even if she was the worst character in Smash history. If she's not in at base, I hope she's in for DLC, WayForward has given Nintendo a fair bit of support over the years and I'd love for them to get a rep.

Dixie:
Chance: 45%
I think honestly with Tropical Freeze, Dixie is sort of back in the spotlight now! I think she'd make a perfect echo for Diddy (WHAT A HOT TAKE!) but they could sorta give her a version of Spinning Kong that moves more vertically and keep the rest of things the same.

Want: 40%
It'd be around 60% normally but now that we've got K. Rool... ehh... She'd still be neat, and I'd still want more echoes! But Dixie is neat, and I wouldn't be mad if she was in the game.
 
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