Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

The best kind of parties

Chance: 50%
I never know how to rate concepts, but, I mean, first parties could totally happen. Many of the most wanted characters by the Smash fanbase are first party, so Sakurai might choose to throw us a bone like he did with Banjo. Plus there's a lot of incredibly iconic Nintendo characters still not in, that would probably be more recognizable to casuals than any of the DLC characters we've gotten so far. Finally, Nintendo put out some crazy acclaimed titles for the Switch in the past three years and they might want to promote them - unless it's Sword and Shield or maybe Three Houses, I think they would be unanimously well received (and even 3H has characters that would hopefully convince even the hardiest of the anti-FE crowd).

But, you know, maybe Sakurai feels beholden to his disconfirmations, or maybe Nintendo doesn't trust their own products' capacity to sell.

Want: 100%
I love Nintendo characters so of course I'd love to see them get a fair share.

Noms: Sol Badguy x5
Ninten prediction: 3.64%

 

[NintenRob]

Now this is an interesting day.

First of all

Chance 90%
I'm sorry, but Smash Bros is a Nintendo crossover first and foremost. You can't tell me with a straight face that there would be absolutely no Nintendo dlc. Just look at the fan favourites. Ridley and K Rool are as popular as they were because people thought they were notable Nintendo characters.

And there are plenty of popular candidates. Bandana Dee, Rex and Pyra, Dixie Kong, Captain Toad, King Boo, Elma, Astral Chain, Three Houses. And that's not even touching assist trophies like Skull Kid, Waluigi, Isaac, Ashley, Skull Kid, Krystal, Midna, Lyn, Skull Kid, Tiki, Spring Man, Squid Sisters, Black Knight and most importantly Skull Kid.

And who knows what direction they'll go after the fighter pass. I have feeling we won't be getting more stages and we've never had third party characters without stages.

And look within the pass. Banjo and Kazooie to many people are lost Nintendo characters. They were first party once upon a time and were popular among Smash fans because they were like Nintendo characters.

I know Sakurai has those comments about new worlds, but he's also said every character brings in a new world I'm pretty sure.

And even if it isn't for a popular character, you can't tell me Nintendo wouldn't want to promote a newer game like they did with Corrin. I mean we still haven't had anything from Three Houses or Astral Chain.

Want 100%

All the characters I want are Nintendo characters, I like Smash Bros because it's a Nintendo crossover. The only third party I ever wanted was Banjo and Kazooie, and that's because I saw them more as Nintendo characters anyway. While I thought Hero was cool, Terry and Joker were the least hype additions for me in a while.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction ninten 12%

 

[Jomosensual]

1st Party reps for DLC

Chance 70 - Think there's a chance we'll get at least one. Still a few highly requested characters who aren't ATs and aren't in the game yet like BWD or Dixie. If they put out any more echos then it feels like a lock. Theres also some newer characters like a Gen 8 Pokemon, A 3 Houses Rep, and Akira from Astral Chain. I don't think there's going to be a sudden rush of 1st party reps but I'd be surprised if we don't get 1 or 2.

Want 60 - Yeah, there's some first party characters I'd like to see in the game. Edelgard is the one I want the most. Would have this higher but after her there's not too many I want that are still alive at this point from 1st party

Predict Ninten - 5%

Noms
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Yeah
chance: 100%: Honestly the one thing I expect post pass. After all, Dee, Three Houses, Astral Chain... I'm just getting started.
Want: 100%: Pretty much any first party is cool by me. Between New franchises or reps for Kirby or Zelda, I'm cool. Even a three Houses rep is cool by me. Just not Sword and Shield.
Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Prince of Persia pre-Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass

[Rerate] Steve x115
Thrall (Warcraft) x110
[Rerate] Quote x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Aloy x100
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x100
Concept: Any grass-type starter x100

100 - 51

Sol Badguy x95
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x95
Francis York Morgan x90
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
[Rerate] Sora x81
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x65
Sackboy x63
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x60
[Rerate] Heihachi x55
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x45
Kunio (River City) x40
[Rerate] Dante x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x35
Akira Howard x30
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x30
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x30
Earthworm Jim x28
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x25

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Meowth x22
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
King Boo x19
Urbosa x18
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Kazuma Kiryu x15
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x15
[Rerate] Monokuma x14
Giygas x12
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Rival Pokémon Trainer x8
Freddy Fazbear x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
Toxtricity x5
Boss: Ender Dragon x4

Thrall cuts through Protector and takes second place. Quote shoots past Any grass-type starter, No more stages beyond the Pass, Aloy, and Protector, and ties with Thrall.

Heihachi, Shadow the Hedgehog, and Unsafe Wiimote Guy fight their way through the 50 nom mark.

We have a new challenger: Toxtricity, with 5 noms.

 

[Wunderwaft]

First parties

Chance: 65%
I'm fairly optimistic on the possibilities of getting a first party character after the fighters pass. We still don't know how the future DLC is structured but at least there is hope in seeing first parties since there are no official statements from Nintendo that deny this. With a second season we might even get Assist Trophy or Spirit promotions since planning for the extra DLC began after the game got released which means Nintendo might look back on these characters and rethink their status. Banjo&Kazooie got in as DLC which shows Nintendo does still listen to fan requests. Who knows? Maybe we might get a second Banjo in the future DLC. The main core audience of Smash is Nintendo fans, Nintendo still has to appeal to their core audience even through DLC.

Want: 99%
It depends on the character but I'm all up for Nintendo characters as DLC. I'm including promotions of assist trophies and spirits in this group as well. The only characters I wouldn't like are probably advertisement picks like how Corrin was for Fates. Characters that already had their games released worldwide are fair game, so a Three Houses rep is fine for me. In the end this is a Nintendo game, I honestly would be surprised if there is someone who would hate the idea of first party inclusions in Smash.

Prediction: Ninten 2.5%
Nomination: Heihachi x5

 

[BowserKing]

First Parties after Fighter's Pass

Chance: 100%. There are several characters not included in the game yet (Sylux, Porky, Edelgard, Adeleine and Dark Bowser) that would fun additions (Though I think Adeleine has a chance for the fighter's pass). But There could be a slim chance for promotions, but for now it's slim. But First Parties getting in is inevitable.

Want: 100%. I would totally support more Nintendo characters getting in. My choices include:

For not in yet: Adeleine, Sylux, Edelgard, Dark Bowser (Echo-Fighter of Bowser) and Porky

For Promotions (If possible): Lugia, Dixie Kong (Echo-Fighter of Diddy Kong) and either Issac or Spring-Man, amoung a large amount of others, but it depends if Nintendo wants them to be playable.

Overall, more Nintendo characters would be the hype

Prediction: Ninten: 10%

Noms: 2 for Toxtricity and 3 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on dollar store Aladdin, since I don't really care.

My exact thoughts summed up in one sentence.

(Rating coming soon. Probably afternoon my photography class.)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

More Nintendo characters in a Nintendo game, ain't that crazy
Chance: 80%
While third-parties take up a majority of the hype nowadays, I have trouble seeing Sakurai and Nintendo going only for those characters. Sakurai is trying to please as many fans as possible so completely ignoring a whole pool of potential characters doesn't make much sense to me. Nintendo is also a buisness and I fail to see them believing characters like Waluigi, Akira or a Three houses rep would not be profitable and shouldn't be considered. Those last two also lacking a Spirit event also seems hella suspicious. Be it a promotional pick or some fanpleaser, I think we'll be seeing atleast one Nintendo character.

Want: 100%
Oviously. My most wanted character is first-party. Astral chain also sounds neat.

Ninten: 2.45%
Hollow Knight costume x5

 

[Sari]

Concept: More First Party Characters

Chance: 70%
I think we are bound to get at least one new Nintendo fighter down the line. There are a lot of big requests from recent games as well as some popular longtime characters like Dixie Kong.

Want: 100%
Rex, a Three Houses character, Andy, and Dixie are among my most wanted so of course I'd be down for more Nintendo characters. If AT's trophies are on the table then Ashley, Waluigi, and Lyn are up there too.

Ninten prediction: 3.01%

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[Pinguino21v]

First Party Newcomers post past?

Chance: 95%
I really think they will come back, at least a bit, on the first party characters. The only unknown is: will it be focused on recent/promotional characters, or on the remining old guard (AT/spirit upgrade)?

Ultimate gave us several of the "old guard" I mentionned: Ridley and K Rool. There are still a few of them, most notably Isaac and Waluigi. If there is upgrades, I strongly believe that both of them are the most likely.

Otherwise, it will be ads for recent of upcoming games.

Want: 100%
I'm a big Golden Sun fan. This series is on the podium of my favorite series, probably even the first, ahead of Xenoblade. My most wanted for Sm4sh were Shulk, Robin and Isaac. We are in Ultimate, and there's still that one piece missing.

With luck, the two reasons for first party newcomers will be met: joining a remake of Golden Sun to Isaac addition will be a symbiotic relationship.

Outside of him, there's a few others first party I would like, especially Elma.

Ninten prediction: 0%
One more character of an already niche serie won't happen. And it's 0% even for Porky.

Nomination Thrall x5

 

[RouffWestie]

1st Party DLC
Chance: 100%
Three Houses is guaranteed at least 1 newcomer. It released at the exact time to be prime material for additional DLC. Othet series could maybe get in since Nintendo chose the DLC.
Want: 1%
I’m hesitant to believe they would add the characters I want. Most of them don't seem like characters Nintendo would want to make paid additional content. It would take a miracle to get any first parties I want.

 

[SKX31]

The Big N giving itself more exposure. Why not? (1st party DLC):

Chance: 45 % if number of characters stay below 91, climbs up rapidly if it approaches 100 characters and 100 % at 100 characters. (Treat it as 45 %)

It's kinda difficult to say from this vantage point, not just because there are questions whether Nintendo would prioritize fan favorites or promotional characters. Or mix both perhaps. Still, even if the DLC cycle's rather short it's likely to extend past mid-2020 and into 2021 maybe. That's ample time for Sakurai and co. to judge a first party character's merits and include one or a couple of them in the DLC plans. The DLC is likely to be majority third party - but with Nintendo designating Ultimate as an ever-green title chances are they might want to keep things going as long as possible. The longer it goes on, the stronger the chances for a 1st party character simply because of more chances. We have no clue if there are plans for a Character #100 - but if there are I'd wager that it would arrive around 2022-23ish.

There are still significant risks though. Nintendo's likely to be very vary of promotional picks after Corrin got a very mixed response online and Fates faded into the background once 3H entered the scene. Fan favorites are somewhat subject to the bubble effect - not just within Smash circles. While you have characters like Waluigi who rides Mario's coattails and is a major Nintendo-wide fan favorite himself, the amount of truly attractive first party characters are kinda limited at the moment. If anything, waiting a bit more might be for the best, since it allows characters like BWD to gain more ground. The impending Switch release in China might help first party characters for example (Long story short: Preorders there look very promising).

Want: (On average) 60 %

Would definetely welcome another Nintendo character personally. But there are a ton of characters to choose from, so I don't know where to even start.

Predictions: Ninten 1,6 %

Noms: Thrall x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

First Party characters after the Fighters Pass:

Chance: 45% - This is a really tough one to rate, because on one hand it feels quite likely, but at the same time it wouldn't be a surprise to see the third party celebrations continue.

It is made more likely due to the simple fact that the additional DLC hasn't been marketed as a Fighters Pass 2 yet, which to me indicates that it won't be sold in a bundle, otherwise they'd absolutely have marketed it as such right off the bat, there's no way they wouldn't utilize the power of buzzwords. What that means is that the additional DLC won't necessarily have a clear theme, every pack is its own little vacuum that doesn't need to take any of the other DLC into consideration, so we could get any kind of mix of first and third party characters, even if that means just 1 first party outlier among 3 third parties, or something similar.

However, I do still have some doubts about this, and it's largely because of the limited selection of first party characters that are available compared to the vast amount of options that third party content present. This is based on nothing more than a gut feeling, but as much as I'd like for it to happen, I don't see either Nintendo or Sakurai going out of their way to include side characters like Bandana Dee or Dixie Kong, these are the kind of characters that are base game additions, because at this point they don't really expand the scope of the game, and while they enjoy some popularity, it's not enough to where they can stand alone and still catch a lot of attention. Niche characters like Elma, Sylux and Porky are very much up against it as well, you can point to Terry as a niche addition, but he still brings in a new franchise with a strong legacy.

In my opinion the only Nintendo characters that really stand a strong chance are a Fire Emblem: Three Houses rep and Rex & Pyra, the former's lack of a Spirit event is highly suspicious, while Sakurai openly admitted his regret for not being able to add the latter, and most importantly both are characters that originated on the Switch, which has been successful enough to the point where I can see them wanting to add a character to celebrate that. I also think there's an outside chance for Waluigi to get promoted due to his popularity, as well as an Astral Chain character, if only because of Sakurai's remark about wanting to add more new worlds into the series, in which case it's one of the few first party franchises that'd bring that with it. Isaac has a very small chance as well, he's niche and has to break out of AT hell, but he does enjoy a notable amount of popularity, and he'd also introduce a new franchise in the series, so while I find him very unlikely, I can't rule out a scenario where everything somehow lines up for him.

Overall I'd say the current trend of third parties continuing is more likely than not, but I won't be surprised either if it's broken.

Want: 50% - It really depends on who it is, this is such a big category that I can't really make a blanket statement about it. I'd love Edelgard for example, but wouldn't care for Byleth. I'd love Bandana Dee, but wouldn't care for Rex & Pyra. I'd love Skull Kid, but wouldn't care for an Astral Chain character. Black Knight is my most wanted, but he has no chance at all. Overall the only Nintendo character I want that I find somewhat likely is Edelgard, so in general I'd say that out of the likely Nintendo characters, there's a bigger chance I get someone I don't care for than with third parties, but at the same time I also find Edelgard more likely than any third party I want, so I'll just opt for a middle of the road rating.

 

[jamesster445]

Nintendo DLC in season 2

Chance: 75%
Want: 80%

Wether it be characters without spirits like the Astral Chain twins, Porky or Byleth, or maybe even promoted spirits. I think we are going to see more 1st parties post fighters pass

Nominations:

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 76%

"Any video game character has a chance" isn't true unless first-parties are able to become playable. Sakurai said he wants to satisfy more fans, and an easy way to do that is to add popular Nintendo characters. Even if Assist Trophies can't be promoted, that still leaves spirits like Dixie, Dee, Chorus Men, etc. While I don't think spirits added after the pass will be promoted, base game spirits could make the jump. What I'm expecting is a mix of third-parties and popular first-parties.

Want: 100%

The Fighters Pass, which is at least 80% third-party, bored me. I wanted Nintendo characters on the pass, and I was let down. Now that there's post-pass DLC, it gives me more hope, but if it ends up being all third-party again, I'll be heavily disappointed. I have third-party wants, but I have even more first-party wants. Plus, my third-party wants would never become playable anyways.

 

[warpenguin55]

1st party DLC

Chance: 95%
I find it very hard to believe that no 1st party characters would come in wave 2. I don't think it will be all 1st party post fighters pass, but I do think we'll get a good amount. There were a bunch of games that probably would have got a rep if Smash Ultimate didn't start development so early.


Want: 75%
Time for some probably unpopular opinions. Sorry in advance.

I want Edelgard, Rillaboom, Akira, Rex & Pyra, Porky, Celica, and Hades. Someone from Metroid Prime 4 would be a cool addition too. I also want to see some more reps from Legend of Zelda. IMO, it's the only under rep'd franchise. I don't know if it would be possible for it to get 2 reps, but I'd like to see Impa(preferably her Hyrule warriors version) and another character that isn't one of the Triforce trio. Not sure who, I'm not interested in seeing Skull Kid playable, Tingle gets a hell no, and Linkle is too close to another Link for me to be excited. Maybe someone from BOTW 2 if there's an option? I don't think any assist trophies will get upgraded either so Midna, Ghirahim, Skull Kid, and the Moon are all out. I only casually play Zelda games so I'm probably missing some characters.

At the same time, I feel like first party characters could go horribly wrong if the right ones aren't chosen. IMO first party DLC characters would need to be ones that had reasons preventing them from making the base roster. For example, Xenoblade 2 and ARMS were development at the same time as ultimate, and that probably screwed up the chances of characters from those games getting in. Pokemon's 8th Gen, FE3Houses, and Astral Chain were released after ultimate, so they never had a chance to get rep'd. Then we have BOTW 2 and Metroid Prime 4, which aren't even out yet but could get a rep. What I don't want to see if we get 1st parties reps would be characters like Dixie Kong, Ashley, and Bandana Waddle Dee. Those characters were passed over during the base roster selection for a reason. Why should a character that wasn't deemed important enough for the base roster get a DLC slot when there are plenty of characters from games released after Smash that didn't have a chance to be considered. Options like the ones I mention above (again, in my opinion) are kinda boring picks. DLC characters should be exciting. I'm not saying characters like these are trash, I even have a few on my wishlist like this. I'm saying that these kinds of characters are what I consider to be bad uses of a 1st party DLC slot. If a new DLC character makes you wonder "why were they not just base roster", then they really shouldn't be DLC. The only exceptions to this might be a rep from an old Zelda game(under rep'd series) or Waluigi based on the massive outcry when he wasn't playable. Maybe the outcry for Waluigi might make Sakurai and the rest of the devs reconsider his importance or something.

And yes, I do know I contradicted my wish list multiple times. It's a wish list, it doesn't need to have logic. And again, I'm not calling anyones favorite character trash. I just don't think those are good examples of what DLC should be.

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

First party characters after the pass

Chance: 50%
Honestly, I can't really say. On one hand, it makes a lot of sense to include at least one first-party, since they would obviously be the easiest to gain the rights to. On the other hand, we don't even know anything about Fighter 5 yet, much less Post-Pass. Either Nintendo will remain leniant with the selections (how else would we get Hero and Banjo?), or they'll tighten their grip a bit and focus on more "reasonable" picks.
Want: 50%
It depends. I'm willing to take characters like BWD, Rex & Pyra, or even someone obscure like Tethu or Henry Fleming. Despite that, not every first-party character would make me happy (no offense, but why is Waluigi so popular? I seriously don't get it). Plus, there are also a good chunk of third-party characters I want, too, such as Monokuma or Hat Kid. It really depends on what ends up happening between now and the end of DLC.

Nominations: Sol Badguy x5

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Prince of persia
Chance 30%:The Prince is likely but competition with Rayman and Ezio is holding the prince back.
Want 65%:The Prince would be a good choice for smash with the unique sword attacks, wall running/jumping and time abilities.

First Party after Fighters Pass
Chance 80%:It's pretty much likely that the developers would add at a few characters from Nintendo after all it is a Nintendo game after all.
Want 75%:I would like to have more first party characters like Dixie Kong,Banana Dee,Akira Howard, a daemon x machina rep, and others.

Prediction:Ninten-2.50%

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

1st Party DLC

Chance: 50%. The idea that Piranha Plant is the last Nintendo DLC is, at best, dubious. Corrin ended off the DLC of 4 on a whimper, but 4 years later, would they have the gall to do it again? Well, that "new worlds" quote is deeply concerning, but it might just be a translation, since the original text apparently only talks about expanding the world of Smash. As of yet, we know little of what they'll do after the Fighters Pass, so the chances are completely up in the air. But just in case, I rated it half-and-half.

Want: 99%. The fact that at least 80% of the Fighters Pass is from other companies undermined why I got excited for post-launch characters in the first place. Of the first-party choices this time around, I only liked K. Rool when he was revealed and Ridley later, but neither were anywhere near my highest hopes and the rest ended up boring me. My assumption was that Nintendo would get more reps as time goes on to make up for this blunder. But if that's not the case and Piranha Plant is the swan song of Ultimate's first-parties... sorry, but I feel that means the DLC was kinda pointless and shouldn't continue. As much as I liked Banjo's inclusion, he isn't worth negating potential reps from inside franchises; even if my favorite outside franchises get in, that won't heal my wounds. My loyalty is largely with Nintendo, which is where Smash should predominantly stay, and the possibility that it isn't feels like sick irony.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

First Party DLC:

Chance: 50% - We've had controversial promotional picks in the past like Corrin and likely just too late for Base Game picks like Piranha Plant, so for now I'd say it's on the table, but with the way the pass is moving I'd expect it to be largely third parties, with a first party or two as bonus characters down the line. Nintendo's getting very ambitious with the roster and Sakurai is well respected in the industry, so it makes sense that they'd want to reach out to a lot of people to bring new demographics to Nintendo. Banjo-Kazooie, despite now being third party, was a Nintendo character during his prime, and made a lot of sense as a DLC pick that I felt was very in the spirit of the game, and Dragon Quest and SNK have their significant histories with Nintendo in one way or another. Joker feels like the real stand-out here, and was what set the tone of expectations for a lot of people. Either way, it's likely that DLC5 is a Third party, but we have no idea what the conditions will be for post-pass characters.

Want: 90% - There are several great Nintendo characters that I would love to see as DLC. Dixie, Bandana Waddle Dee, or even a character like Louie from Pikmin (even if he wouldn't do as well DLC-wise), and I feel that the shock of Joker's addition really steered people away from first parties. I agree that DLC should be exciting, and that the characters I mentioned above might be best saved for a Nintendo-focused Smash 6, but I feel like, like a quote somewhere on the forum states, that we've ended up in some kind of AU where Smash wasn't made for Nintendo fans.

I'd also absolutely love to see Waluigi, and after everything that went down after E3 2018 it'd be an incredible PR move for Waluigi to beat the odds and be the first assist trophy promotion! and that would open some awesome doors, too! I'd love to see characters like Knuckles be promoted, and even if I care little for JRPGs I'd hope Isaac would be promoted as well. His fans have suffered for a long time, and I think they deserve to have their character playable as well! Especially after the bad PR regarding his Assist reveal in Ultimate.

Zelda is also in dire need of a new rep. The Triforce Trio is great but with Link variants padding out their part of the roster, it's honestly unfair. Especially to a series with a long and storied history and Nintendo's third biggest franchise. I know it has a ton of representation via stages, but even just one more unique rep would do a lot of good. Ruto, Skull Kid, Midna, Fi, the BoTW Champions, Tetra, the list goes on! If Fire Emblem's allowed to have an entire roster of mostly one-offs, then Zelda can have one one-off alongside the core trio.

Still, I do have some mixed feelings about potential first party DLC, especially if it's a shill/promotional pick towards a certain demographic. A lot of people are clamoring for the Howard Twins or Byleth/Edelgard, but their inclusion would be extremely predictable and would probably be best left for a future game. Plus it would probably cause a lot of tension, due to demographic bias, and from those who wanted Rex/Pyra or an ARMS character. Their characters being not included due to being too recent and then a pair of characters who came even later getting in would not bode well at all.

Also, as much as I love Pokemon, and as much as I love Rillaboom's design, I think it's still way too early for a Sword and Shield rep. Other promotional Pokemon have had to wait until at least a year after their games were released, and I think it'd be fair to apply the same to a Gen 8 Pokemon. Lucario was over a year after Diamond/Pearl, Greninja was over a year after X and Y, and Incineroar was a year after Sun and Moon. There's no such thing as too many Pokemon reps, but there does have to be some moderation.

Overall, I really want to see some first party DLC alongside the 3rd party characters, but I hope to see a first party that really surprises us!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Ninten - 1.82%

 

[fogbadge]

hmm lets see, id say it about 50% i mean theres always as reasonable a chance that we'll get more 3rd parties but it does feel like sakurai is moving away from 1st parties at times

want is 100% my most wanted are 1st parties, sure there are still 3rd parties id be happy with but come one i want toad and chibi

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

First Parties After Fighter Pass

Chance: 100%
There is no conceivable way we go through the entirety of Smash Ultimate's lifespan without at least one first party character. Even if you think DLC slots can only go to heavy-hitter world-famous mondo-selling characters (which is absolutely the opposite of true based on... every single DLC fighter we've had so far, really.) we still have more than enough first party characters to go around that are extremely popular/well-known/highly-requested/unique/interesting moveset-wise/etc./all of the above. If you think there aren't then I dunno what world you live in.

Want: 100%
I can name about 3 characters that aren't 1st party that I REALLY want in Smash. One of those 3 barely counts since he's from a Mario game that Nintendo just doesn't own... On the other hand, I could name at least 20 characters Nintendo DOES own that I would be ECSTATIC to see in the roster.

Ninten Prediction- 4.93%

Any grass starter x 5

 

[Deleted member]

First Parties Post-Pass

Chance: 100%

Now that the third-party guest character wave has come and gone, maybe it would be time for Nintendo's home IPs to finally get the recognition they deserve. At this point, they probably know that guest characters have been oversaturating the DLC, so maybe it would be time for them to give them some love.

Want: 100%

Being a fan of most of the franchises presented, yes. Definitely pushing for more homegirls and homeboys. Bets include: An FE3H rep, the collective Aegis (Rex, Pyra, Mythra), and another LoZ rep, because it seriously sucks for Nintendo's second most-well-known franchise to only get the core Triforce. The only reason for me to see Geno, Bandana Dee, and others, is simply just to make the fanbase shut the **** up.

Nominate:
Female Character
Rex
Morrigan

 

[lordvaati]

Chance: 90%. Outside of the pass there is a VERY high chance of this occurring, as there a lot of suspicious omissions from franchises and characters amongst the Spirits in game currently(no Three Houses content at all espite getting updates for other recent Nintendo games, Pokey/Porky and Giegue/Giygas having no Spirits at all for the MOTHER anniversary event) that allude to characters from the Big N being among those in the post Pass content.

Want: 100%.
No real reason to have an issue with this honestly, the Fighter's Pass seems to be following a set theme but beyond that it's fair game. The only criticism I'm seeing is those leaning onto Sakurai's quote about introducing new worlds...which is fair, but then again we don't exactly have worlds like Startropics or Dragalia Lost yet, so why the assumptions that he meant only 3rd parties?

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Chance: 80%
After the fighters pass would be the ideal time to put in a first party rep. I could see an off the wall 1st party fighter like Piranha Plant being thrown in as incentive for a new service in the coming year.

Want: 90%
Smash Bros started out as a celebration of Nintendo, so the more Nintendo characters, the merrier! Though if we do get one, I'd hope it to be an off the wall character that nobody saw coming.

Nom: Monster Hunter x5

 

[CapitaineCrash]

First party character post pass

Chance: 60%
This is actually hard to answer because we don't know a lot about the post pass character. How many character will there be? Will there be another fighter pass, or more individual character like Piranha plant? I feel like first party have a bit more chance if they don't need to sell them with a stage (like Corrin in Smash 4 didn't have a stage). I'd say 60% because at that point, it might be easier for Nintendo to throw there at least one first party. There's also a lot of game that released recently that have the potential to bring a new character (Astral chain protagonist, Fire emblem three houses character, Pokémon gen 8). They can also take spirit character like Rex and Spring man that Sakurai actually wanted playable in the base game. There's also Porky who don,t even have a spirit, and some relatively big franchise don't have character (Rhythm heaven, Golden sun). Some of the most wanted character are also first party (like Dixie kong).

Want: 95%
Some of my most wanted are first party (like Chorus kids and Porky). There's a lot of other first party that I would love (Rex, Skull kid etc.). Even if there's a first party that I didn't really want, I would be happy because that might be a confirmation for more first party and give more chance to those characters that I want more. The only situation where I would be unhappy about a first party would be if the character is really boring.

 

[Nemuresu]

First-parties:

Chance: 50%-Not going to give it anything higher. As long as we don't have an idea of who the first post-pass fighter, there won't be any way to know if things will change. Only giving them that chance over the whole "no Three Houses spirits" situation.
Want: 0%-I'm not going to get angry over their inclusion, but that doesn't mean I have any interest on seeing them.

Nominations: Heihachi x5

 

[Calamitas]

You think Nintendo would do this? Add Nintendo character to their Nintendo crossover platform fighter??

Chance: 90%
I'd moreso consider this score the inverse of the opposite scenario - that is to say, a 10% chance that all DLC is going to be third-party. I just can't see any conceivable way that out of however many DLC fighters, there isn't going to be a first-party somewhere on there. Hell, I'm not even convinced that the Fighter Pass is entirely third-party, especially with what credible leakers have already ruled out for FP5.

Want: 99%
Let it speak to the Fighter Pass' character choices that I still haven't bothered to buy it. At this point, the only way at this point that I'd be willing to buy the thing in its entirety was if one of two very specific third-parties was the final fighter, or if FP5 was a first-party. And for post-pass DLC, I'd honestly rather see what people dismiss as "Nintendo D-listers" than a whole set of other third-party characters with little to no connection with Nintendo. Only reason why I'm giving the 99% instead of full 100% is because the one character whose inclusion I'd hate more than anyone else's (Rex and Pyra) is first-party.

Predicting Ninten to get around 2.36%.

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Newcomer x5.

 

[3BitSaurus]

First parties after the FP
Chance: 50%
Classic coin toss situation: either it happens or it doesn't. It would certainly be weird for Nintendo to have no first party DLC characters. However, bear in mind that aside from 3H and Astral Chain, we have no guarantee that Spirit/AT promotions will be a thing. So it's hard to tell at this point, but if we do get one... there's a chance it's not who the people want.

Want: 50%
Depends on who it is. Octoling and Dixie would be my most wanted, but I personally don't care about the aforementioned 3H rep or Astral Chain, so it's a "okay, good" at best and a "yuck" at worst.

Regarding other popular choices such as Waluigi, Andy, Isaac, BWD or another Zelda rep... I dunno, I'd like these guys, sure, but I think third parties have priority over them in my wishlist. So really, it's hard to say what my reaction would be at this point in time.

Predictions
Ninten: 3.2%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5

 

[Lady Kuki]

First Parties Post Pass:

Oh boy, isn't it ironic that we're not even sure if we're getting another Nintendo fighter in a primarily Nintendo crossover? Hehel

Chances: 5%
Sakurai said he wants to prioritize new worlds, franchises that haven’t been repped before. With the majority of decent first party reps being turned into spirits, I have my doubts. The only first parties that fit the bill are Astral Chain and Ring Fit, but those games came out a while after Sakurai was planning the dlc roster. Not to mention that picks like Joker, Cloud, and Ryu have introduced a new audience of people playing Smash due to the wide amount of appeal they have. It has attracted an audience that is more interested in the crossover aspect of Smash. Why go all out with Nintendo all stars when you can appeal to more people by making the most out there crossover that can officially be achieved? We’re never going to quite have an opportunity like this again, so I can definitely see DLC being third party only tbh. The only leg first parties stand on is the fact that some of them lack spirits, but who’s to say that a spirit board of their franchise won’t be updated soon? Only time will tell, and I think whoever ends up being fighter number six will be the ultimate sign as to whether Sakurai is still interested in throwing first parties a bone.

Want: 100%
Despite my really pessimistic outlook on first parties entering the fray, I’d be excited for one. I like third parties, but a lot of the ones I want are obscure, are spirits/assist trophies, or are competing with other third parties for a slot. I’ve always been mostly into Nintendo too. Don’t get me wrong, I’m totally open to the crossover aspect, but I think I’d get more invested if we had one or two first parties at least. Only saying this too because right now, my only most wanteds at this point are first parties. :X

 

[Deleted member]

1st Parties After the Pass

Chance: 50%

It's a cointoss. While spirit are still heavily unlikely for DLC at all, Three Houses, Ring Fit Adventure, and Astral Chain were released this year with no spirits added to Smash. It's pretty damn sus when games like SwSh, Daemon X Machina, and RE were spirited away into Smash rather than having a fighter rep. The translation bit about "new worlds" would make total sense for these 3 new-ish games and newer IPs Nintendo probably has in store in the future. The other 50% mainly has to do with the current Fighter Pass' lineup of characters consisting of only 3rd Party characters and if Nintendo and Sakurai are way more into adding as many Non-Nintendo games to Smash as possible since such an accomplishment will be near impossible to replicate again. It may be more of a hassle to deal with licensing and negotiations, but on the long run, it has made Ultimate into an even bigger game than if they were to just add only 1st Parties. Overall, it's an even split, so that's as fair of a rating as I can give for such a day.

Want: 33%

To tell you the truth, a lot of 1st Party reps don't really interest me. 1 of the biggest reasons I started getting into speculating Smash DLC is because of 3rd Party inclusions. Between Nintendo's pool and the overall 3rd party pool, the latter is ****ing huge and has way more characters I'd love to see in Smash than the former. I also have to mention that almost every 1st Party character added to Smash 4 and Ultimate usually gave me a nice impression that they were cool and would like to see who's next, but they never felt like the kind of characters that made me really hyped up and invested in seeing them in action. I will say the same for almost every other 1st Party character they might add as DLC, but this is only 33% because of Three Houses. I like Byleth enough to want her/him in Smash (and also because I want the anti-Fire Emblem Smash crowd to get BTFO'd hard haha), so it's not like I don't want any 1st Parties.
------------------
Predictions:
Ninten - 0.78%
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Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5

 

[Plank08]

Sackboy X 5
I would add a description of how I feel about first party’s but I’ll do it later

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Ninten from Mother/Earthbound.

Predict Dovahkiin from Elder Scrolls.

Megadoomer

----------

Some songs to get into the Ninten mood:

Spoiler

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Day will end in 24 hours, as opposed to the past few days where the days were 48 hours. Will most likely always do this going forward unless it's a big topic or there is a lot of discussion taking place.

Looking for input on how long days should normally be: do you guys prefer 24 hour ratings or 48 hour ones?

 

[Perkilator]

Ninten? D’OH!

Chance: 0%
Even if there’s Nintendo characters in the future, Ninten sure as heck ain’t one of (lest it be by some miracle).

Want: abstain

Prediction: 9%

Nomination: Claude Rerate x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Not Ness:

Chance: 5% - I’m not expecting many Nintendo characters if any, plus Ninten, while popular, doesn’t seem to be on the same level as some other Nintendo characters. I can see Sakurai throwing the Mother series another bone, though (since it is treated very well), letting it have its third fighter, and he is the first main protagonist of the series. He can use moves and weapons unique to the first Mother game, too, so he could be a semi-clone of Ness (even moreso than Lucas) if not completely unique.

Want: 100% - I love the Mother series, and so I would love to see Ninten be playable in Smash. I may mainly root for Porky, but I’m also a Ninten supporter and would love him equally, even if I’d still want Porky afterwards.

Nominations:

Waluigi x5

 

[DaUsername]

Sakurai remembers that this is a Nintendo game
Chance: 90%
While we don't know how many more characters we're gonna get, it would be weird if the wasn't at least one more Nintendo character among them. While Sakurai did say he wants to add new franchises, there's still a bunch of Nintendo series without any playable characters. (Though a lot of them are trapped in assist trophy jail.)
Want: 50%
There's several Nintendo characters I want, but there's also some I really really don't want. You know who I'm talking about.
Ninten prediction: 2%
Noms: Phoenix Wright x5
Other rating will come later

 

[Jomosensual]

Ninten

Chance 0 - I feel confident saying that Ninten will not be in this game. I dont think we're getting any more echo fighters the way it is, but even if we did Ninten might not even be picked. Feel like if we're getting another character from Mother/Earthbound it would be Porky, who would be unique and is more popular in the Smash fan base. And if for some reason we're getting more echos I think Impa, Octolings, Dixie, and even Paper Mario would be ahead of him there.

Want 20 - I guess this would be fine but there are other Nintendo characters I'd rather have and there are other picks for echos I'd rather have and there are a lot of echos I'd like to get first

Predict Dovahkiin - 26%. The sudden outbursts of deconfirmations make him feel a lot more likely than before

Noms
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

Looking for input on how long days should normally be: do you guys prefer 24 hour ratings or 48 hour ones?

I think I like 48 hours the most with 24 hour days thrown in every so often.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Some dude who beats up hippies

Chance: 7%
Ninten as a unique character would only happen in a base game, but as an Echo I coul see him. He's really one of the most obvious options for first party echoes left. And he could complete the trinity of Mother characters. With Earthbound Beginnings' worldwide release being sort of a big deal, I could see them doing that. But if they wanted a Mother rep, maybe they'd just rather do Porky and have a new unique one.

Want: 100%
I'm a huge Mother fan, and I'd love to see Ninten join the fray. While I'd love to see him be unique, to represent the many, many aspects of Mother gameplay that aren't in Ness and Lucas' movesets (and to finally silence the incorrect notion that he and Ness are basically the same), I'll take what I can get.

Noms: Sol Badguy x5
Dovahkiin prediction: I dunno, 45%?

 

[Ridrool64]

The kid who beat up a lamp.

Chance: I'm going with a straight up 1%. He has the possibility because he exists and has some prominence, but nowhere near enough to counteract his obscurity with the masses. Plus, he's very, very visually similar to Ness, which presents a problem in marketing him to people who aren't previously familiar with him. His best chance was in the base game, echo or unique, but that's passed and I think this is one kid waiting for Smash Generation 6.

Want: 20%. I really don't care about him personally. But I guess his abilities would be kinda cool...? So maybe, since I like how Ness and Lucas play.

Sunflower x 5.