Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[FancySmash]

The series that is usually skimpa'd

Chance: 5%
It's the same old argument everyone's been using, I'm not expecting any first party characters. Even if I were, characters like Paper Mario, Bandana Dee, and Dixie Kong tend to rate higher. There's also the point of contention that it's unknown if she's seen as echo material or an original fighter. Something not as important, but Impa's appearances are... drastically inconsistent. Sometimes she's a capable warrior, other times she's the equivalent to Peach's Toadsworth.

Want: 50%
Impa is an interesting case. I could very well see her, and I'd even appreciate another reappearing Zelda rep on the roster. However, Impa is one of those characters that can go multiple ways. Most likely she'd be a Sheik echo, and... let's just say I'm not the biggest fan of Sheik and call it a day.

Monokuma Prediction: 2.01%
Monokuma himself is very violent, but they usually use contraptions to do the killing, contraptions that Bayonetta can't have...

Nominate: Kamek x5

 

[Ultomato]

Only good in Skyward Sword

Chance: 12,5%
I don't expect DLC reps from series that are already in. If Zelda would somehow get a new rep, there are much more popular picks (Midna, Skull Kid, Tetra, Girahim) who all got shelved as assists it Spirits already. On top of that, she would probably resemble Sheik too much and An echo or semi-clone as DLC would Just be a bad move. I do give her some chance, in the case of the speculated echo-dlc batch.

Want: 12,5 %
I like her character and I like zelda, but there are much more interesting characters from that series I want to see repped. Normally, I Ignore that argument in my wants because I don't think it's relevant, but in this case, the echo wouldn't phase me at all and as a unique character in a future title, she'd be behind in Line after Skull Kid, Girahim and Midna, at which point more Zelda reps would feel like a drag.

Nom: Rundas x5

 

[DaUsername]

Wait, RTC days are actually one day now? I'm gonna have start paying attention.

Impa
Chance: 5%
You all know the deal already. She's a spirit. Nintendo characters are unlikely. She'd probably just be a clone. Yadda yadda. Throwing in a few extra % just in case any of the above statements end up being meaningless.
Want: N/A (That means abstain.)

Monokuma prediction: 1%
Noms: SE rep x5
And now I'm realizing I probably could have gotten this in before E3. Eh, whatever.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright guys, new day. Today we're rating Monokuma. Monokuma is the mascot and recurring antagonist of the Danganronpa series of games. In them, a group of prodigious high school students are kidnapped and forced to play a killing game. Monokuma is the 'headmaster' of the operation, a psychotic teddy bear who explains the rules and ultimately carries out executions.

Also predict Erdrick. You know him by now.

(I'll do calcs later)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Edgy Bewear
Chance: 1%
Is the Danganronpa series popular enough to for Monokuma to sell well? Does Sakurai like the series as much as he does Persona? I wouldn't know, not really familiar with but I assume there are bigger IP's Nintendo would want to go for. I wouldn't really call Danganronpa mainstream enough. Plus I don't see the moveset potential. If all they can do is execute people, then they might be too dark of a character for Smash.

Want: 0%
Yeah, I'd prefer having characters I actually know. I also don't want more picks who I think feel out of place in Smash, yet got in anyway due to Sakurai liking them. Again, I'd like some characters who are actually requested and while I'm sure Monokuma has their supporters, I don't think they'd be the reason for their inclusion if the teddy actually made it in.

Erdrick: 51.59%
Qbby x5

 

[Cosmic77]

I know this isn't a rating on Monokuma, but I've been looking though all these recent ratings, and I have to say, every character seems to get the same pessimistic and extremely negative score. It feels like everyone is only listing reasons why a character can't make it in. "This character is first-party and we probably won't get any." "This character is owned by a company who probably won't want to cooperate with Nintendo" "This character isn't as popular as who I think is popular."

Just a suggestion, but maybe people should try emphasizing the pros a bit more and accommodate those into their score. Otherwise, Erdrick, Steve, and any other character mentioned in some unconfirmed rumor are probably the only ones capable of getting an average of more than 15%.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstain: I know nothing at all about... her?


Predictions: 68%

 

[Neosonic97]

Not exactly the Black-and-White I'd want

Chance: 5%
Visual Novels are a pretty niche market, and even amongst VNs, we have Ace Attorney in western territories and Fate in Japan, both of which are larger than Danganronpa. And while Monokuma does have some notable moveset potential what with the bear being a recurring character and showcasing different abilities each time, I'd still argue that Ace Attorney and Fate beats the bear pretty easily.

Want: 0
I dunno about you guys, but I just feel that Danganronpa just isn't meant for Smash. It's not exactly cartoony in the way that Phoenix Wright is (And that exaggerated nature of Phoenix Wright's is what got him popular enough to warrant making a fighting game moveset for to begin with), nor does it have the huge variety of characters and abilities that Fate has, which would similarly make for good fighting game material. Danganronpa is, in my opinion, stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Erdrick prediction: 20%

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Impa pre-Monokuma

Morrigan Aensland x105
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x103
Concept: Microsoft Rep x102
Kamek x101
Aloy x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x100
Crono x95
Kyle Hyde x95

100 - 51

Spyro x93
Boss: Kracko x87
Frogger x85
Saber (Fate) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
Concept: Square Enix rep x80
Concept: Valve rep x80
9-Volt x74
Heavy (Team Fortress) x71
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Ninten x64
Adeleine (Kirby) x62
Rundas x55
Ellie (The Last of Us) x55
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
X (Mega Man) x47
Decidueye x45
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x40
Specter Knight x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x25

Under 25

Earthworm Jim x21
[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Qbby x15
Black Shadow x13
Blaze the Cat x13
Gex x12
Concept: More Bosses x12
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
King Boo x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x8
Toon Zelda x8
Marx (Kirby) x8
Magolor x6
Mike Jones x6
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Terry Bogard x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1

Kamek and Kyle Hyde join the top seven. Kamek flies to fourth place, passing Crono, Third-party character from an unrepped company and Aloy, and blasting Spyro off. Kyle Hyde ties with Crono for seventh.

Rundas and Ellie shoot past 50 noms.

Bandana Dee waddles to 25 nominations.

Today's newcomers is Terry Bogard, with 5 noms.

I know this isn't a rating on Monokuma, but I've been looking though all these recent ratings, and I have to say, every character seems to get the same pessimistic and extremely negative score. It feels like everyone is only listing reasons why a character can't make it in. "This character is first-party and we probably won't get any." "This character is owned by a company who probably won't want to cooperate with Nintendo" "This character isn't as popular as who I think is popular."

Just a suggestion, but maybe people should try emphasizing the pros a bit more and accommodate those into their score. Otherwise, Erdrick, Steve, and any other character mentioned in some unconfirmed rumor are probably the only ones capable of getting an average of more than 15%.

I think it's a symptom of Piranha Plant and Joker being so unexpected people just don't feel like they can predict newcomers, so instead they only feel confident in stating reasons why characters are unlikely.

Abstain: I know nothing at all about... her?


Predictions: 68%

It's a he.

Not exactly the Black-and-White I'd want

Chance: 5%
Visual Novels are a pretty niche market, and even amongst VNs, we have Ace Attorney in western territories and Fate in Japan, both of which are larger than Danganronpa. And while Monokuma does have some notable moveset potential what with the bear being a recurring character and showcasing different abilities each time, I'd still argue that Ace Attorney and Fate beats the bear pretty easily.

Want: 0
I dunno about you guys, but I just feel that Danganronpa just isn't meant for Smash. It's not exactly cartoony in the way that Phoenix Wright is (And that exaggerated nature of Phoenix Wright's is what got him popular enough to warrant making a fighting game moveset for to begin with), nor does it have the huge variety of characters and abilities that Fate has, which would similarly make for good fighting game material. Danganronpa is, in my opinion, stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Erdrick prediction: 20%

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

I dunno, I'd say Danganronpa is certainly cartoony (especially Monokuma) and has a pretty large cast of characters, each with unique abilities.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain, I legit hadn’t ever heard of this franchise.
Nominations
Specter Knight x5 Blaze x5
Predictions
Erdrick: 50%
People are going to massively overrate him

 

[Neosonic97]

I dunno, I'd say Danganronpa is certainly cartoony (especially Monokuma) and has a pretty large cast of characters, each with unique abilities.

I did say 'in the way that Phoenix Wright is'. Also, most of the 'abilities' are just about the only thing each character has. Like... Makoto Naegi's 'ability' if you could call it that, is that he's just really lucky, and that's it. Monokuma is a rare exception, owing to

Spoiler: Danganronpa spoilers

being a robot

but even he doesn't have that huge a repertoire.

 

[Sari]

Abstaining completely on Monokuma. I've heard of Danganropa but I know virtually nothing about it so I won't comment.

Erdrick chance prediction: 62.41%

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x5

 

[TemporalShrew]

I did say 'in the way that Phoenix Wright is'. Also, most of the 'abilities' are just about the only thing each character has. Like... Makoto Naegi's 'ability' if you could call it that, is that he's just really lucky, and that's it. Monokuma is a rare exception, owing to

Spoiler: Danganronpa spoilers

being a robot

but even he doesn't have that huge a repertoire.

He's got a pretty huge repertoire if you use him as a representative of the entire series, though, which of course is what he'd be. And really, if you look at most characters, they don't need a whole lot of material for normals, they just need body parts with which to hit someone across the face, which Monokuma most certainly has. And if all he needs are Smashes, specials, and a Final Smash, I think there's more than enough material on which to draw.

As for him in general...

Chance: 7% or so. Sakurai and Kodaka are quite friendly with one another, but it really depends on a lot of factors - does the Dangan trilogy make it to Switch? Danganronpa is published by Sony in Asia, I believe, so how tough a deal is that for Nintendo to work out, and is it worth it? Big questions, and very difficult to gauge their answers.

Want: 100%. I won't lie, he's pretty much my top pick for DLC, at least in part because he's such a long shot. I think people who claim he wouldn't fit in are overselling how "violent" he would have to be - he's got two sides, a comedic side and a sadistic side, and I think it would be pretty easy to find the appropriate balance for Smash without losing his ridiculous essence. I think he'd fit in swimmingly, and if it means we have a character who's not even close to humanoid, then praise be, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Monokuma

Chance: 20%
I actually think Monokuma is more likely than people give him credit for. Sakurai and Kodaka, the creator of the Danganronpa series, seem to be friends. Plus, Spike Chunsoft, who make the games, have a close relationship with Nintendo, being constant supporters of their consoles, including the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon series. On top of that, who would expect a Danganronpa character of all things in the Fighters Pass? Granted, I don't think he's a shoe-in, but I do think he has more going for than people think.
Want: 100%
Although I'm still pretty new to the series (and haven't even played the games), I'm already a huge fan of it. Having more people gain exposure to it and its unique charm would very much make me a happy camper. Plus, just look up the music from the games. A lot of these tracks were MADE for Smash.

Nominations: Spyro x2, X (Mega Man) x3

 

[Ridrool64]

*insert a badly edited image of Banjo that's half black and half white*

Chance: Man, I think Dangan has spread to a lot of places, and I'm going to be generous with this guy. He gets a 40%. Dangan is actually pretty popular (at least, among my circles, which have nothing to do with Dangan in general) and, judging by the above post, it seems the devs of the games are actually close to Nintendo and Dangan's creator seems to be on pretty good terms with Sakurai. And people aren't counting on a Dangan character, so he is unexpected, and popular enough for it to make sense. My only issue is that I don't know what he can do besides those executions.

Want: Dangit Grandpa's bear guy will get a 30% from me. I've never touched the series personally: everything I know about it is second hand. But he would make a bunch of people I know happy, I think? So Monokuma is welcome. Also, he'd be very helpful for a Risukuma spirit battle, but so would Banjo (though if both got in, Monokuma could be Akuma and Banjo could be Risukuma). So in a sense, he helps out Arle. Can't say that's a bad thing.

Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x 5. Oh, and Erdrick will get somewhere around a 60.62% chance rating.

 

[GoodGrief741]

You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain

Chance: 4%
Now, Danganronpa's entered a place where I'd dare call it mainstream; at least for a visual novel. But I don't think it'll get a character. It's still niche compared to the likes of Ace Attorney and Professor Layton. Plus the subject matter is certainly a potential issue, though I don't think it would be (Danganronpa's stylish approach to censorship helps, and many of the violence is cartoony out of context). But Monokuma's not an easy sell tbh.

Want: 0%
I'm a big Danganronpa fan, but Monokuma doesn't have a place in Smash imo. Not iconic, not influential, not that big a deal, not on Nintendo, and frankly too harsh a tonal mismatch.

Erdrick prediction: 100%
I wanna see how close I get.

Noms: Cronox5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I am back y'all. Some personal stuff happened that I had to deal with asap. Thanks to GoodGrief741 for running the show while I was gone.

With that being said, Monokuma.

1% Chance

While Danganronpa is not the most niche thing we have ever rated, it is close. While it has sold close to a million in Japan and sales in the West have pushed it over, Danganronpa is a bit of an awkward choice for representation. For starters, Danganronpa's connection to NIntendo is a stretch, given that the only Nintendo appearance of the franchise is as DLC for Conception II. Even then, this is a far more niche series than any third party we have seen so far. Persona 5 at least had a cult following for its franchise for over a decade and had a massive launch. It alone outsold the Danganronpa franchise.

If the Dangan trilogy comes to the Switch and we see who is coming next for DLC at E3, this is a character I would love to reevaluate.

100% Want

I am a Danganronpa fan at least. I feel the best moveset would be making use of the ultimates from the series as an execution based moveset. I would go into detail on what I would do, but spoilers. If you have not played the games, pick them up on steam or hope for a trilogy release for the switch. They are really solid visual novels. Also the music is super dope.

Nominating Spyro x 5



Now onto other business. I can promise daily updates for each of the characters going forward. My current plan is this.

June 3-9 Current character slate
June 10 - Nintendo/Smash E3 predictions
June 11 - Nintendo/Smash E3 reactions
June 12 - Satisfaction rankings

After that, I would leave that up to you guys on one thing. Should we do a rerate schedule after E3? On one hand, we would have a very different idea of DLC, and it would be curious to see how some characters have changed. On the other hand, it does push the noms list back a bit. Personally, I would love to do a two week rerate period, rating a couple of popular choices or interesting ones. Feedback on this is welcome.

 

[Ultomato]

I am back y'all. Some personal stuff happened that I had to deal with asap. Thanks to GoodGrief741 for running the show while I was gone.

With that being said, Monokuma.

1% Chance

While Danganronpa is not the most niche thing we have ever rated, it is close. While it has sold close to a million in Japan and sales in the West have pushed it over, Danganronpa is a bit of an awkward choice for representation. For starters, Danganronpa's connection to NIntendo is a stretch, given that the only Nintendo appearance of the franchise is as DLC for Conception II. Even then, this is a far more niche series than any third party we have seen so far. Persona 5 at least had a cult following for its franchise for over a decade and had a massive launch. It alone outsold the Danganronpa franchise.

If the Dangan trilogy comes to the Switch and we see who is coming next for DLC at E3, this is a character I would love to reevaluate.

100% Want

I am a Danganronpa fan at least. I feel the best moveset would be making use of the ultimates from the series as an execution based moveset. I would go into detail on what I would do, but spoilers. If you have not played the games, pick them up on steam or hope for a trilogy release for the switch. They are really solid visual novels. Also the music is super dope.

Nominating Spyro x 5



Now onto other business. I can promise daily updates for each of the characters going forward. My current plan is this.

June 3-9 Current character slate
June 10 - Nintendo/Smash E3 predictions
June 11 - Nintendo/Smash E3 reactions
June 12 - Satisfaction rankings

After that, I would leave that up to you guys on one thing. Should we do a rerate schedule after E3? On one hand, we would have a very different idea of DLC, and it would be curious to see how some characters have changed. On the other hand, it does push the noms list back a bit. Personally, I would love to do a two week rerate period, rating a couple of popular choices or interesting ones. Feedback on this is welcome.

Depends heavily on what the DLC is.
This is something you might want to discuss in the reaction portion

 

[Jomosensual]

Monokuma

Chance 30 - I dont see this happening. Monokuma is so very niche that I'm not sure how good of a shot it has. Still like Mono's chances better than a lot of the first party characters we've rated so far though

Want 30 - Never played Danganronpa, although the series does and character do sound interesting

Noms:
Ellie x5

 

[CureParfait]

Monokuma

Chance- 55%
I think Monokuma is one of the likelier candidates regarding to third party characters. Since Danganronpa seems like it is starting to get big and Sakurai being fairly close to Kodaka. Spike Chunsoft has a pretty good relationship with Nintendo as well.

Want- 100%
Given that I am a huge Danganronpa fan I don't mind any Danganronpa reps as long they aren't my least favourite characters. Fortunately for Monokuma he is one of the Danganronpa characters I like. Plus I think his moveset would be very fun to play as.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I am back y'all. Some personal stuff happened that I had to deal with asap. Thanks to GoodGrief741 for running the show while I was gone.

With that being said, Monokuma.

1% Chance

While Danganronpa is not the most niche thing we have ever rated, it is close. While it has sold close to a million in Japan and sales in the West have pushed it over, Danganronpa is a bit of an awkward choice for representation. For starters, Danganronpa's connection to NIntendo is a stretch, given that the only Nintendo appearance of the franchise is as DLC for Conception II. Even then, this is a far more niche series than any third party we have seen so far. Persona 5 at least had a cult following for its franchise for over a decade and had a massive launch. It alone outsold the Danganronpa franchise.

If the Dangan trilogy comes to the Switch and we see who is coming next for DLC at E3, this is a character I would love to reevaluate.

100% Want

I am a Danganronpa fan at least. I feel the best moveset would be making use of the ultimates from the series as an execution based moveset. I would go into detail on what I would do, but spoilers. If you have not played the games, pick them up on steam or hope for a trilogy release for the switch. They are really solid visual novels. Also the music is super dope.

Nominating Spyro x 5



Now onto other business. I can promise daily updates for each of the characters going forward. My current plan is this.

June 3-9 Current character slate
June 10 - Nintendo/Smash E3 predictions
June 11 - Nintendo/Smash E3 reactions
June 12 - Satisfaction rankings

After that, I would leave that up to you guys on one thing. Should we do a rerate schedule after E3? On one hand, we would have a very different idea of DLC, and it would be curious to see how some characters have changed. On the other hand, it does push the noms list back a bit. Personally, I would love to do a two week rerate period, rating a couple of popular choices or interesting ones. Feedback on this is welcome.

Glad to be of service chief. I hope everything's OK now.

As for rerates, I agree with Ultomato that it's better to wait until what we get. For all we know we get just Erdrick and we're in the same place as we are now.

Now for this week's calcs:

Spoiler: this week's calcs

Metal Sonic
3.34% Chance, 37.62% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 2.05%

Tetromino
3.72% Chance, 31.35% Want
Winner of predictions was 3DSNinja with 3.00%

Nathan Drake
0.19% Chance, 42.27% Want
Winner of predictions was Sid-cada by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 0.13%
Nate has the dubious honor of being dubbed the least likely third-party, beating Nero Claudius' record of 0.7%. Somehow even the Tetris block managed to score higher.

Palico
8.18% Chance, 16.88% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari by virtue of being the highest prediction, with 4.62%

Impa
4.60% Chance, 27.32% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 4.73%

Below is the list of everyone with extra noms.

3DSNinja 5 extra noms
Artix 10 extra noms
Awakining 5 extra noms
Verde Coeden Scalesworth 5 extra noms
DaUsername 45 extra noms
Delzethin 5 extra noms
FancySmash 20 extra noms
GoodGrief741 25 extra noms
PokéfreakofBACON 5 extra noms
Sari 90 extra noms
shocktarts17 5 extra noms
Sid-cada 5 extra noms
Ramen Tengoku 5 extra noms
Troykv 20 extra noms
waddledeeonredyoshi 5 extra noms

 

[SmasherMaster]

The Bear Of Despair:

Chance: 25%
As a 3rd Party, I can see Monokuma going either way, and the most common complaints feel like they could have been used for Bayonetta or Cloud at some point. Plus, if Smash is trying to use the DLC to branch out into different gaming audiences, it would make sense to choose Danganronpa as a series, since unlike the more popular Ace Attorney the series hasn't pulled the Nintendo crowd. Plus we don't have a character for the genre of visual novel. Plus the relationship that Sakurai has with Kodaka might push the series, as well as the relationship between Spike Chunsoft and Nintendo.

Want: 100%
While I would love to play as Monokuma in Smash, I think the main reason I want him in is for the music! Plus, he would work better than any of the main characters like Makoto (cause none of them seem the type to fight) or a random character like Tenko or Mondo (though OMG I would love to see Miu get in somehow).

Nominations:
Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Captain Toad Rerate x3

 

[Sid-cada]

Monokuma

Chance - 5% - He's possible, I guess? If there was another company to get represented, he could be chosen, and do to being the mascot he's the most likely character due to the whole rotating characters thing. Still, I think there are bigger names out there, and I honestly don't know how he compares, especially when there's a certain lawyer who seems better known as far as Visual Novels are concerned. There's also a matter of representation

Want - 40% - Not exactly looking for him. I'm a bit more neutral to him, but to be honest I don't care and would rather have it go to another spot.


Nominations

Cadence X10

 

[FancySmash]

Blood lust Winnie the Pooh

Chance: 5%
I won't deny that Monokuma has gotten more popular in recent time. However, I have to echo what has been said previously, I don't think his popularity comes close to Phoenix Wright's. Friendship between both creators is good, but we have to look at this realistically, Sakurai can't just add a character for every friend he has. It's certainly a plus, but it isn't an all but confirmation. But the biggest problem Monokuma faces, no game in the entire series, spin-off or anything, has been on a Nintendo console. Get a game on Switch and come back, we'll talk.

Want: 0%
To be perfectly clear, I have nothing against the series or the character themselves. However, the series doesn't appear on any Nintendo console. That's where the zero in want comes from. I can't in good faith support a series with no connection to Nintendo whatsoever. Bear in mind (ha, get it?), if the series ever does make it to Nintendo's systems, this rating will easily change.

Predictions: 83.07%
Whew, Erdrick, this has been a long time coming. I expect big things, yet detractors all the same.

Nominate:
Kamek x5
Captain Rainbow x20 (is Captain Rainbow OK for nominating?)

 

[Ornl]

Monokuma
Chance : 0% - Want : abstain

Goog points
- In 2017, Famitsu readers voted Danganronpa among among the top four adventure games of all time, along with Steins; Gate, 428: Shibuya Scramble and Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney. They voted Danganronpa in 7th, 11th, 21st and 22nd position in the top games of all time.
- In 2017, Spike Chunsoft started hiring a new Danganronpa game.
Mixed points
- Smash Bros ignores Pokemon Mystery Dungeon musics. So there was no formal opening to Spike Chunsoft content.
- After Joker and probably Erdrick, Western customers of the Fighter Pass would have a 3rd character whose popularity is mostly Eastern.
Weak points
- Danganronpa hasn't been released on Nintendo.
- Even though it isn't the owner of the series, Spike Chunsoft has created Dragon Quest I, II, III, IV, and V.
- The principle of the series is very violent. The series follows of high school students who are forced into a murder game. "Danganronpa" means "win a debate with a pistol bullet".
- Unlike all third party Fighters, Monokuma is a sadistic antagonist.

Nominations : Frogger x5

 

[BowserKing]

Monokuma

Chance: 5%. He wasn't on a Nintendo device (yet), but who knows. He will get past some competition, but it's not going to be easy.

Want: 60%. Monokuma would be a fun character to play. He would also bring in multiple types of variety in one swoop

Spoiler: Spoilers

Animal, Villain and Robot

Noms: 3 for King Boo and 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon becomes fighter

 

[GoodGrief741]

Captain Rainbow x20 (is Captain Rainbow OK for nominating?)

Definitely.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

This day is now. Here come Erdrick.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Erdrick

Chance: 100% Maybe it's wishful thinking, but he's, like, the most predicted character. Tons of leaks, some datamining. Seems solid.

Want: 100%. Biggest franchise in Japan for ages. One of my favorite childhood franchises. One of my top 5 picks.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just as a reminder since this is gonna be a big day.

For your scores to count, you must have at least two sentences for Chance and want.

 

[NomadLuminary]

Erdrick:

Chance: 50% (I rather keep my hype to a minimum, plus I don't believe everyone or anyone is a lock. So to me every one is 50% no matter how unlikely a character is.)

Want: 100% (Erdrick honestly is one of the few characters that deserves to be in. Without DQ, modern JRPGs wouldn't have existed. This includes every square game and every future JRPG after it. I'd love Erdrick/Luminary and I really hope they get in.)

 

[TheCJBrine]

Gohan Erdrick:

Chance: 50% - Ignoring leakers, but still taking the datamine into account, I'll give Erdrick an even 50. "Brave" matches up very well with him, however it could also be another Dragon Quest hero, Slime, or even a character from a different series entirely. Dragon Quest is very popular in Japan, though, and it has at least some Western popularity (even if it's not much compared to most other series), so I am expecting "Brave" to be Luminary or Slime at least if not Erdrick or someone else.

Want: 20% - I don't really care if Dragon Quest is in Smash or not, however I am interested in it so I wouldn't mind a character from the series (really I'm just "meh" for any character I don't care about, not really caring if they're in or not). I'd probably want Erdrick more if I've actually played his game, but I haven't actually played any DQ games yet (am planning on getting DQ11 for the Switch), and Slime is what initially caused my interest so I'd really like it over Erdrick, at least as of right now. I don't oppose Erdrick or dislike him; I just don't feel like I care much, but I do think he could be cool and have some nice abilities.

Nominations:

Ninten x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Azor Ahai

Chance: 100%
I'm gonna be that guy and say that yeah, Erdrick's in Smash.

Do we have conclusive evidence that he's in Smash? No, just alleged leaks and a prevailing interpretation of datamines.

Does he make sense to be in Smash? Yes, Dragon Quest has the history, brand recognition, influence, quality, and overall pedigree that third-parties require to be in. To rep Dragon Quest, Erdrick is not the only way, but he's definitely one of the ideal ones.

None of this matters though, because whether we can prove it or not, whether we believe it or not, whether we want it or not, Erdrick's in Smash and he's getting revealed next week.

(A sidenote: the last time I was so confident in a character getting in was Isaac)

Want: 80%
I love Dragon Quest and it deserves a rep. Erdrick over Slime? I dunno. Erdrick over everyone else? For sure. If we get literally any other SE character I won't mourn because I want all of them and most of them more than Erdrick. So whatever happens, no skin off my back.

Noms: Kyle Hyde x5

Amy Rose prediction: 3.79%

 

[Teeb147]

How does this thread work again?

Erdrick

Chance: 77%
-I tend not to go over 50% usually, but since I've spent so much time looking at stuff around erdrick, I really do think that it's one of the characters that has the biggest chance to get in smash. People like to **** on leakers right now, and i dont like leaks in general, but it doesn't take away everything some have gotten right, even if they've also gotten a few things wrong from smaller sources. That combined with the datamine (while not a direct clue at erdrick) adds very strong connection and really makes the character likely in my eyes. And the series is big enough + has been on nintendo systems. The only down parts are that it's not as popular in the west and that we have nothing definitive for them being in yet. And considering Slime could come along a hero for a taunt (like morgana for joker) or more I think it would work well for DQ representation in general.

Want: 100%
-Dragon Quest is one of my favorite rpg series, and I love a lot about it. It's brighter in general and tends for a fun adveture. I'm also a big fan of when there's a class system. The moveset potential is huge, way beyond what people think, and sakurai being a fan of the game will help a lot. Japan LOVES Dragon Quest and there's plenty of stuff to show for that. There was even a live tour based more around Dragon Quest 3 with erdrick, and much more. I'm not japanese but I love the series too, and it has quite a bit of appeal and charm. I'm also a fan of heroes that can get both close-up as well as use all kinds of magic and other items, and being able to have a female alt too, erdrick is one of my top picks for sure. I'd still love quite a few SE characters like Terra, Tifa and some others, but Erdrick is up there with them

 

[Deleted member]

Chance:
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't expecting Erdrick. He's being backed by Vergeben (good Smash character sources) and Tansut (seemingly good Square Enix source), the Brave data could have a correlation to his chances, and Dragon's Quest impact on gaming--especially in Japan--is nothing to scoff at. He is the closest thing to a lock for a potential newcomer at this point and I will be shocked if he isn't in.

Want:
My brother brought home Dragon Quest 8 when we had a PS2. I was like eight years old when I watched him play it. From that point on, I saw Dragon Quest as the reference of what an RPG was. I didn't really grow up too attached to the series and I didn't like Dragon Quest 9, which was the first full game I played. In the meantime, I dabbled in Fortune Street, Dragon Quest's soundtracks, and the Monster spinoff series.

So I'm familiar with the series, my brother enjoys it, I like its Akira Toriyama artwork, and it's apparently legendary and influential. Even though I haven't played DQ 3, Erdrick is practically the Cloud of the series. I think he's the one who would represent it best over Slime, so I'd prefer him the most. Plus I like his design out of most of the other heroes of the series. I think the only one I'd take other than Erdrick is DQ 8's hero because I like the orange coloring.

Gotta say, it's surprising how this supposedly niche RPG series I grew up around was actually a cultural phenomenon in Japan and is suspected to be in Smash Bros Ultimate. I'm hype, but also really tired of discussing him

 

[Ridrool64]

Incineroar 2: Ragnus Strikes Back (if he gets in, it'll be the sequel that's even better, if he isn't it's the sequel that ruins the integrity of the first).

Also, apparently Erdrick is a title and not the name of the hero from Dragon Quest 3, and they are gender-determinant, but for the purposes of this description I will be referring to DQ3 Hero as a male Erdrick.

Here's Ghost Ship from Fortune Street, an awesome remix of Dragon Quest 3's overworld theme.

Spoiler: Ghost Ship

Chance: This is probably going to be seen as a hot take, considering I basically consider him Incineroar 2, but... 60%. Erdrick really only has one big problem, but that one big problem is somebody more popular, more recognizable, and more emblematic of the franchise to most people: Slime. There's likely only one from Dragon Quest, so it really comes down to if Sakurai wants to tap into something new or wants to stick with somebody more... easily doable for Smash. Erdrick has leaks on his side, though, but the thing is, he only has a good few from sketchy sources. I think there's only a few that have come from the right guys, but I can't really think of a positive for Erdrick over Slime except for being backed by leaks, and to a lesser extent being more easy to develop (assuming he uses Robin as a base). It's very much a him or Slime situation, but I do believe Dragon Quest is coming. (If he had images, or even video proof of inclusion, this would probably be a 90 or even a 100%. But he doesn't, and while these are reputable text leaks on occasion, a text leak is a text leak.)

Want: So... now I have to talk about what I think of Erdrick... Erdy-werdy... the guy... man, it's pretty much impossible to talk about him without talking about how he affects leak culture in the current speculation scene. Speculation requires few-to-no leaks that are definitive, because otherwise the only characters people are allowed to speculate over are who's in the current leak of the day. At the same time, Dragon Quest does have a massive pedigree (and, from my totally selfish point of view, raises Arle's future chances far higher if it gets in, since DQ is pretty much a bigger scale Puyo when it comes to Smash chances), and a character from it should've been in already, if not even before Cloud. But I much prefer Slime because Slime is unique, and sticks out from the crowd based on visual feedback alone, while being almost comically more well known and popular in the west than Erdrick, who to people not familiar with him already (that is, the bulk of potential people purchasing him) has nothing that sets him apart from Link or Robin. As an aside, I have not currently touched Dragon Quest 3, though I will get around to it if I feel Erdrick is coming.

With all of this in mind, I believe that I will give Dragon Quest 3's main hero a 40% in want. He's got the accolades, but I really would like Slime better. But hey, it's not a series I play, so no harm no foul if he does show up.

More Bosses x 5. Crash I'm think now stands a chance at getting a 25.20% chance rating, Joker helped him out A LOT. But Activision might not be the best. However Crash isn’t who were predicting. It’s Amy Rose, who I completely forgot about. She won’t be doing better than a 0.39% chance, mostly for the same reasons as Metal.

As an aside, Incineroar pretty much went through everything Erdrick did before getting revealed, so I could consider Erdrick Incineroar 2, or maybe Duck Hunt 3 if people tried to deny ESRB leak to the end (rather than taking Shulk as a confirmation of the leak).

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Monokuma pre-Erdrick

Kamek x106
Morrigan Aensland x105
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x103
Concept: Microsoft Rep x102
Aloy x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x100
Crono x100
Spyro x100

100 - 51

Kyle Hyde x95
Saber (Fate) x90
Boss: Kracko x87
Frogger x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
Concept: Square Enix rep x80
Concept: Valve rep x80
9-Volt x74
Heavy (Team Fortress) x71
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Ninten x64
Adeleine (Kirby) x62
Ellie (The Last of Us) x60
Rundas x55
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
X (Mega Man) x50
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x50
Decidueye x45
Specter Knight x42
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x25

Under 25

Earthworm Jim x21
[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x20
Captain Rainbow x20
Qbby x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Blaze the Cat x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x13
King Boo x13
Gex x12
Concept: More Bosses x12
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
Terry Bogard x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x8
Toon Zelda x8
Marx (Kirby) x8
Magolor x6
Mike Jones x6
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1

Kamek flies to number one, past Microsoft rep, Protector and Morrigan Aensland. At the same time, Kyle Hyde falls off the top seven and is replaced by Spyro in his tie with Aloy, Third-party character from an unrepped company and Crono.

Your new nominees for the day are Captain Rainbow (with 20 noms), Sunflower (with 5), a rerate of Captain Toad (with 3), and the concept of Street Fighter Mii Costumes (with 2).

 

[BowserKing]

That was fast

Erdrick

Chance: 40 to 50%. Heavily leaked and heavily popular. The main reason Erdrick is not higher is because how poorly Square Enix is represented in Smash. That is all I have to say about this.

Want: I'll be honest, Slime has a better chance of appearing. Abstaining for now. (Mostly 50%)

Noms: 2 for Lord Fredrick as an echo-fighter and 3 for X (Megaman)

 

[Neosonic97]

My main exposure to Dragon Quest is through Dragon Quest 9, Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 when?) and Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime.

Chance: 30%
I'll admit, I'm being a bit cynical here, but I'm honestly thinking that Erdrick's chances aren't as high as everybody thinks, partially BECAUSE everybody thinks he's a shoe-in (Remember what Reggie said- characters you don't expect). I don't hold much stock in leakers, so there's that (And let's be real here, the main reason everybody's rating Erdrick so highly is because of Vergeben). But honestly speaking, the main reasons I don't think Erdrick's got too great of chances are because A: Square Enix, and B: the Slime exists. While it's rare, the Slime is a rare example of a generic enemy becoming the mascot of an entire series. And with games like Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime existing, I'd say the Slime has plenty of moveset potential, and, to be honest? Is just way more interesting of a character and a far more appealing choice for a DQ rep.

Want: Also 30%.
He's fine, I guess? Dragon Quest 3 however is not a game I've played, and I'd much rather have a character from a game in the series I have played (Read: The Slime, or possibly the Incarnus from Dragon Quest Monsters).

Amy prediction: 5% at best.

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Erdrick

Chance: 95%
At this point, there's more going for him than against him. Basically everyone and their mom has been leaking him, and he definitely has the legacy to support him. The only reason it's not 100% is because Square Enix isn't the easiest company to predict, and this could be the world's most elaborate hoax.
Want: 0%
I'm sorry, but Dragon Quest (and by extension Erdrick) just doesn't click with me. I've seen tons of footage of the latest game, and it all looked boring and generic, even after watching a review of the game calling it the best game of 2018. Plus, with all the leaks, there's no surprise, and the surprising picks are honestly the best ones (isn't that right, fellow Plant Gang members?). Overall, depending on who else there is, I would end up buying the Fighters Pass DESPITE Erdrick getting in, not BECAUSE of him getting in.

Nominations: 9-Volt x1, Earthworm Jim x4