Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Artix

Smash Journeyman
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252
Neku

Chance: 15%
If they were to pick a 2nd Square Enix rep, it had to be him or Sora. I wouldn't mind if they picked either of them, but I believe Sora will pull through because of popularity. I could see Neku as a potential DLC, though.

Want: 80%
I really like him in that game. He's one of the characters that I find very cool, in terms of design. Really wish he made it in Ultimate instead of Sora, even though he's one of my most wanted newcomers.

Nominations:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x10
 
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Neku Sakuraba

Chance - 1%

Don't really know why he'd be chosen over another Square Enix character that's more relevant (Dragon Quest character, Sora), more requested (Geno, Sora), or more historical (Dragon Quest character, Crono).

Want - 0%

Not interested in more 3rd parties that aren't iconic.

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x10
 
Joined
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Neku chances: 0.5%
The competition for third-parties in fierce and the chances that TWEWY would be the series chosen to get a newcomer in that regard are low. It originally was a Nintendo release and was critically acclaimed, and is gonna get a port on Switch soon, but that's about it. At least even though it sold less than Sakura Wars, it's not as hurt by the lack of presence outside of Japan.

But overall its sales are low and it suffers from considerable competion from Square Enix, so I doubt it's a serious contender.

Neku want: 2%
I have no particular reason to want this character in Smash, although I could consider getting the game as part of my Switch library once I actually get the console.

Fawful prediction: 4.89%
This reminds me that I should beat Superstar Saga on my 3DS.

Nminating:
New item: Beast Ball x10
 

Quetzal77

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Neku
Chance: 25%
He's a popular character from a cult classic that's getting a rerelease on Switch in less than two months. The timing is perfect. Even without considering the rerelease, Neku is still important enough for Sakurai to have considered him. TWEWY is widely considered one of the DS' best games, it got mobile ports, and its cast got cameos in KH before even Dragon Quest characters. He has amazing moveset potential as he fights with pins that give him all sorts of abilities. However, Sakurai may go for a bigger character for SE's 2nd rep. As much as I would love Sora, I think Neku is more likely just because it would be far easier to negotiate the rights. Still, a second FF character or a DQ character might leave Neku out.

Want: 100%
TWEWY is amazing and Neku is a great character. It would be super fun to play as him in Smash, and he would come with some great music and likely a stage based on Shibuya. Really hoping he somehow makes it.

Nominations: Medusa x 5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Yet Another JRPG Protag

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Competition is the name of the game.

Square's main properties Smash would be interested in are Geno and Sora, so Neku is kind of waiting in line behind them. It's unlikely that he'd pop out above them. Also, his game isn't that well known, and third-parties definitely do need to be iconic.

And I'm not a fan of more JRPG protagonists. I don't like the artstyle.

Prediction for Fawful: 1.2%
Nom: Fountain of Dreams x10
 

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
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Neku

Chance: 1% - If Square Enix was to get another character, it'd be Geno.

Want: 0% - I have no interest in adding more 3rd Parties to the roster.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x10
 

Erureido

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Double abstaining again. Another character I'm not to familiar with to give a proper rating.

------

Predictions

Fawful (Super Mario): 2.15%

That Bowser's Inside Story remake was announced too late.

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Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10
 

Arcanir

An old friend evolved
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Neku
Chance: 2%
He's a decently popular character, but heavy competition not only within third parties in general, but also his home company of Square Enix (which has Lara Croft, Dragon Quest, other FF protagonists, Geno, and Kingdom Hearts) that are very popular/notable makes it difficult for him to stand out among the rest.

Want: 70%
Loved TWEWY, so I wouldn't mind seeing the character and his franchise in Smash.

Nomination: Incineroar x10
 

MasterWarlord

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Neku Chance 0%: The second character for Squeenix is Dragon Quest, plain and simple. In the off chance it's not, Geno or a second Final Fantasy character.

Neku Want 0%: I hate Twewy's aesthetic and am as far off from the demographic it appeals to as you can imagine, and I like Dragon Quest and SMRPG.

Nominate Incineroar x10
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
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Neku Sakuraba

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

I kind of see either Sora, Geno, or any other iconic Final Fantasy character getting in before Neku. His game has a cult following, but that's it really. It never become a major IP for Square Enix like with Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Kingdom Hearts.

Nominations
Rowlet x10
 

Lampy

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A bit off topic, but I just learned that today happens to be TWEWY's 11th year anniversary.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,474
Neku Sakuraba

Chance - 0% - I can't see it happening. He had a single game, albeit one very popular that was recently ported to the Switch, but unless it is simply the first game planed in a series or a retro they have little chance. I don't see why a third party would be different, and would if anything make it seem less likely.

Want - 40% - While he could be interesting I have no attachment to the character.


Predictions

Fawful - 7.34% - Doubtful feelings, I have!


Nominations

Nihilego X10
 

BlueMagician

Smash Journeyman
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390
Sakuraba Neku

Chance: 5%
Though he gets some occasional requests, he'd have to get past or in with Sora and such. If he gets in alone then it'd be because of issues with everyone else.

Want: 70%
Cool character from a cool game. As long as he gets a good variety of moves, I'd be happy.

Prediction for Fawful: 17.5%

Nominations:
Viridi x 10
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
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Neku: 4% chance / abstain want

Game seems really cool! Looking forward to playing it on Switch for the first time. But Squeenix competition is super tight so he's got a mountain to climb.

Noms: Nihilego x10
 
Joined
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Messages
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I'm gonna have to abstain on both chance and want. I don't really know who this character is or the series overall.

Nominations:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x10
 

CometX-ing

Smash Apprentice
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
198
Neku Sakuraba

Chances: 60%
Being a Square through and through I think his chances are pretty good, tack on that he is a Nomura original and it's even more likley. Then you have the fact that his games was originally on DS and is getting a Switch port and I would say he has a better chance than a majority of Square characters, Sora included. Neku's only con is that his game was niche, but even that I would say doesn't hinder his chances too much.

Want: 100%
I have no other Square character that I want. This isn't to say that he is one of my most wanted, just the Square character I would be happiest to see, no other really matter to me save for Sora. I played TWEWY and loved it, and Neku's powers are so out there that Neku could have a real cool moveset using his pins. I'd also be interested in seeing how he would include the whole partner aspect if at all.

Nominations:
Primarina x10
 
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Sari

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Neku Sakaruba

Chance: 5%. Fairly popular but other Square Enix series like Dragon Quest and Kingdom Hearts most likely have higher priority (also Geno). Not to mention 3rd party slots in general are really limited.
Want: 20%. I've never actually played TWEWY but Neku seems like he could be a cool character to add. That being said though, I'm against 3rd party reps from the same company (unless they are incredibly iconic like Ryu) and there are better Square Enix reps out there.

Nominations: Terry Bogard x10
 
Joined
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Messages
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Neku Sakuraba
Chance: 15% (Conditionally 35%)

This is a franchise so loved by their creators, they've been pushing it against sales data for over a decade now. When they couldn't make a sequel, the composers did a concept album sequel to it. They've teased the expansion on Final Remix back when they announced the mobile port, so even back then their ambition went further than their means. They even got the cast into Kingdom Hearts DDD, they'll really do anything they can to show off this series. I've got no doubts that if they sat down an started negotiating for a new SQ rep, Neku would be on the table. If a sequel finally gets off the ground, I'd imagine it would stay with Nintendo. If so, success for Final Remix could maybe get him an extra shot.

Want: 80%

I'd call TWEWY the best game on the Nintendo DS. This is a game that does everything it can with everything it's got. It pushes it's style, it's mechanics, it's characters, everything as far as they can be taken, all out of genuine passion for their craft. It embodies every principle behind the DS's design better than most Nintendo titles did.
Neku himself is an interesting character on his own, with an unique design, and aesthetics, thanks to the game's passion for fashion. Mechanically, Pins give him literally any and all abilities you can think of. He could be an echo to any cast member just due to the versatility of his moveset, it's that crazy. Ranged, Close, Zoner, Trapper, he can seriously do them.

Moreover, getting some of TWEWY's soundtrack in Smash would be a noble enough cause to get Neku in, if you asked me, it's very good.

Nominations:
  • Style Savvy Character x5
  • Ray x5
 
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TCT~Phantom

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Neku
3% chance

Outclassed by other SE reps. He simply is too small. Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Geno, and even a second FF Rep like say Sephiroth would make more sense.

100% want

I love twewy. Top ten favorite games easily. Gonna get the switch version when I can. If you have not played, change that.

Nominating Ninten x 10

Sorry for no new calcs I had some business to take care of.

Day Over, rate Fawful and predict Tails.
 
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Fawful

Chance: 1%
The amount of content from the Mario RPG games in Smash usually isn't anything more than a few trophies and some music tracks. That could definitely change this time around but I don't think Fawful would be that change. Characters like Paper Mario and Geno stomp him hard in terms of support. Also by the time the project plan finished Fawful hadn't been seen in six years. Ironically Paper Mario was more relevant to M&L than him.

Want: 60%
He'd be a neat suprise but I just prefer seeing Paper Mario.

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x10

Tails: 13.28%
 
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Messages
5,790
He who hath fury

Chance: 5%
He could realistically happen, but he won’t. Limited newcomers, focus of fan service, yadda yadda.

Want: 50%
Fairly iconic and a fun character to have.

Tails prediction: 9%

Nominations: NintenX5
Ryu HayabusaX5
 

Sari

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Fawful

Chance: 2%
Hasn't been relevant in years apart from the recent M&L remakes. In terms of Mario spin-off characters, Paper Mario and even Geno most likely have higher priority.

Want: 10%
Aside from the Pokemon games, Superstar Saga is probably my favorite turn-based game on the GBA. With that being said, I honestly wouldn't want Fawful to make it in over other Mario reps. He'd be better off as an assist trophy.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10
 
Joined
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Fawful
Chance: 1%
The center of some memes, but not relevant much otherwise and doesn't have a notable following. Can't see him happening over many other Mario series characters.

Want: 15%
I do quite like Superstar Saga, and I think Fawful would be fun, but I can't say I want him. Like, I have no personal attachment to Geno, but I'd rather see Geno get in than Fawful so Geno fans would be happy.

Nominate Style Savvy character x10
 

Indefinite Minimum

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
468
Fawful
Chance: 1%
He's a side character in a spin-off title. He's Prince Fluff tier at best.

Want: 30%
He doesn't have much, but at least he has fury.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5
 
Joined
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Fawful
Chance 5%
He serves an important role in more than one games and is actually owned by Nintendo so he's naturally a better choice than Geno. Outside of the Smash fanbase I'd even say he's more popular. He's probably the most popular and stand out character from the RPG series, there's a reason Bowser's Minion gave him a lot of spotlight. I saw A LOT of requests for him to be in Mario Kart 8 prior to its release. And "I have Fury" line is especially stand out.
That said, I don't think we're getting an RPG character, and I have to admit Paper Mario would probably be more likely if we did get one. And that's not even considering Captain Toad or King Boo, even Waluigi couldn't get in. And with limited space there's good chance we might not even get another Mario character.
Want: 40%
Not my first choice, but he's cool. Although his best aspect would probably be hard to represent in Smash. An Assist Trophy styled after Mr Resseti would probably be the best way to represent him. But he would be cool to have playable even if he doesn't say much. I'm sure his crazy antics will come through with his gestures and movements

Nominate Daroach x5
Modern Kirby stage x5

Is there much point with predictions anymore?

Anyway Tails: 7%
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
252
Fawful

Chance: 1%
Well, Fawful is kinda popular in the Mario and Luigi series, especially Superstar Saga, which had a 3DS remake. But even with that, I don't think Sakurai would consider him over any other Mario characters that are more popular, like Geno or even Captain Toad.

Want: 80%
I really loved Fawful in Superstar Saga. He's one of the villains in that game that I find intimidating, especially when he said "I have FURY!". And I wouldn't mind if he did make a cut in Ultimate.

Nominations:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x10
 

BlueMagician

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 17, 2018
Messages
390
Fawful

Chance: 20%
Fawful has one way or another become the standout of the Mario and Luigi series. So if anyone steps in to rep the series it'd be Fawful, at least from the angle of popularity.

Want: 30%
He's fun, but I've never been all that crazy about Fawful. Wouldn't mind.

Predictions:
Tails 21%

Nominations:
Viridi x10
 
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fawful
chance
if we get any mario rpg charcter it will be geno or paper mario first and wiht a limited roster he just won't make the cut
15%

want
he seems cool and I don't hate him just want others more
50%

nominating
labo man x10
 

CaptainAmerica

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Beanboy

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

It's a Mario Spinoff character, so let me just repeat what I said for the other Mario spinoff character...

I never understood all the support for him in the first place. A (i) third party (ii) one-off character who’s (iii) spin-off only from (iv) over twenty years ago (v) with no future who’s (vi) not exactly iconic. Any one of those points is used as a hit against other characters we’ve rated so far, so why is a character with all six better?
So, over Geno, Fawful is (i) first-party, (ii) in multiple games, which are (iv) decently recent and (v) the series is also set for a new installment. So he has way more of a chance then Geno, right?

No.

One has massive fan requests despite his visibility, the other doesn't really have much noise surrounding him. Fawful getting in before Geno would just annoy loads of fans, and that's not even mentioning the outrage if Fawful beat (Captain) Toad, Paper Mario, or Waluigi.

Tails prediction: 9.5% and I'm gonna be disappointed.
Nom: Fountain of Dreams x10
 
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Fawful
Chance: 20%
Want: 45%

He's a memorable villain, but I think he's among the Mario characters in the lowest level of priority.
He'd have a cool moveset and taunts made from his infamous quotes.


Noms:
Female announcer x10

Tails prediction: 16.31%
 
Joined
Jul 23, 2018
Messages
33
Fawful

Chance: 10%
Fawful is such a popular character in the Mario & Luigi series, but even then, there are other Mario characters that have higher priority than Fawful. Geno, Captain Toad or even Paper Mario would have a higher chance of getting in than Fawful.

Want: 45%
I gotta admit, he's gonna be a fun character to have in Smash. But I would rather have Geno or Captain Toad instead, if we're really going to have another Mario rep.

Tails prediction: 12%

Nominations:
Saber (Artoria Pendragon) x10
 
Joined
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Fawful
Chance: 10%(was 17%) the more I think about this character the least I think he actually has a chance

Want: 5% I mean he'd be alright but I'd rather have plenty of characters over him.

Tails prediction: 20%
Nominations:
Zero x10
 
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AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
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Fawful

Chance: 1% - Mario spin-off character that I really don't see happening.

Want: 0% - No real interest.

Nominations: Deconfirmed Character DLC x10
 
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