Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 340 - Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

DjinnandTonic

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 26, 2015
Messages
297
Location
Nagoya, Japan
3DS FC
0619-5629-0198
Celica:
Chance: 40% (including chances of Echo and/or DLC)

Celica has a lot going for her, as a representative of the classic era of NES gaming AND as a female lead of the new remake, which was certainly in development before Smash5's dev plan was complete.

Looking at the history of Nintendo's games, Celica actually holds some historical value as one of the earliest female protagonists in their games. Samus predates her, but I don't think there's any other first party female protagonists that existed before Fire Emblem Gaiden.

Given Sakurai's love for the FE series, Celica's notable popularity (apparently the 4th most popular in the entire franchise according to the FEH polls?), and her viability as a visually-unique fighter that could work as a semi-clone or pure Echo of Robin... I think she's a prime candidate for fan-pleasing fighter that wouldn't take a lot of development time.

Want: 95%
Fire Emblem doesn't NEED any new reps, but I think Celica does a great job representing a large portion of the franchise and giving Smash some more prominent female characters.


Paper Mario:

Chance: 55%

I think his chances are a little better than half. A 2D-based character is REALLY easy to model... His moveset is certainly easy to imagine, and I don't think having 3 Marios is much of an issue anymore (thanks Link!). The latest M&L game even proved that Paper Mario himself is a different entity than regular Mario.

I don't think he's quite as likely as Toad/Captain Toad, but with Daisy confirmed and Waluigi trophied, the number of viable Mario All-Stars is basically just these two. I wouldn't be surprised if we got both.

Want: 60%
The best version of Mario! More RPG representation! I'm amused that both of today's options are IntSys reps.

Nom: Leon Kennedy x5 (I don't particularly want him, but I am interested in what people think of his chances!)
 
Last edited:

Souldin

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
250
Location
United Kingdom
3DS FC
4854-6557-6769
NNID
Souldin
Celica:
Chance: 40% (including chances of Echo and/or DLC)

Celica has a lot going for her, as a representative of the classic era of NES gaming AND as a female lead of the new remake, which was certainly in development before Smash5's dev plan was complete.

Looking at the history of Nintendo's games, Celica actually holds some historical value as one of the earliest female protagonists in their games. Samus predates her, but I don't think there's any other first party female protagonists that existed before Fire Emblem Gaiden.

Want: 95%
Fire Emblem doesn't NEED any new reps, but I think Celica does a great job representing a large portion of the franchise and giving Smash some more prominent female characters.
First off, I love how you bring up the point of Celica being a NES character, as well as one of Nintendo's earliest female protagonists. People seem to forget that Echoes is actually a remake, giving her a bit of a higher chance in terms of Sakurai being able to come up with a move-set before the remake came out.

Secondly, on the subject of Nintendo's female video game protagonists, I believe their earliest one is actually Bubbles from Clu-Clu Land. Her game released in 1984, predating even Samus. It's kind of a shame there aren't more female lead protagonists to pool from for SSB; off the top of my head I can think of the aforementioned Bubbles, Lip from Puzzle League, Ashley from Another Code (I think it's called Trace Memory in the US), Alexandra (?) from Eternal Darkness... Dixie isn't the lead of her series but she was the lead protagonist in Donkey Kong Country 3, making her more prominent than most.

Nintendo co-owns the Zero/Project Zero/Fatal Frame franchise, and every game has a female lead, so a playable character from that would certainly fill that criteria. I'd love to see Yuri playable; really interested to see what others think the chances are of a Project Zero playable rep so I'm slowly nominating them for a 'rate their chances' each day.
 
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
3,063
3DS FC
0189-8502-2597
NNID
WitchofKnowledge
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Celica

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

I feel as though we won't get a 7th Fire Emblem character in the base game. It feels too late for Celica and it's obviously too early for Edelgard. And I feel that Edelgard will be a DLC character.

Paper Mario

Chance: We have 8 Mario Characters and I feel we won't have anymore. And I think we'll get someone like Captain Toad as the 9th character

Predictions:

Shovel Knight: 7.88%
Shantae: 8.23%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,280
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Celica

35% Chance

A big hit from last time primarily due to the fact we can assume FE Switch was in some development as well. To be honest, Celica still has a decent shot due to the fact that Echoes was possibly in development and Sakurai could have gotten a Greninja situation. However, perhaps the biggest hit to her chances is the fact that FE Switch is a lot more... done than previously thought. Personally I was expecting a Winter 2019 release for that game. The fact it is closer to done makes me think a hero from that game is pretty likely as DLC. It makes me feel that a promotional character, especially from a series that Sakurai agknowledges as a bit bloated a tad unlikely.

90% Want

Still like the character, she is cute and moveset wise more interesting than Alm. A bit of a penalty due to while I would be happy with her, with limited spaces I would be less happy.

Paper Mario

...5% Chance

Remember when I gave Captain Toad a hit in chance. Well, Paper Mario imo has even less of a chance now. This is primarily due to the fact I honestly think right now the only Mario Newcomer that is semi likely is Geno. Strange times I know. But still, I feel that with a focus on fan service, Paper Mario takes a hit. The biggest factor ironically is his recent games. People do not like them that much. I feel that the backlash against Sticker Star and Color Splash hurts him.

100% Want

Which is a shame because I actually like this character. I love PPTTYD and SPM, both are amazing.



Also, I would like to issue an apology for falling behind on calcs. Some personal stuff had happened. I will try to get everything done by this week. As an apology, everyone will get an extra 5 noms for the rest of the week starting tomorrow.


I will post calcs in the morning, try to get votes in by 9 AM EDT.
 

MrElectroG64

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 26, 2014
Messages
305
Location
PNF-404
Paper Mario and Celica

Paper Mario

Chance: 20%
If you had asked me before E3 about his chances, I'd say that his chances were a lot hugher, but now is a different story. There just doesn't seem to be room for him after the limited newcomer list became a thing and is seemingly being based off of fan-service. After megaton requests like K. Rool and Geno, and the still obligatory Pokemon, retro character, etc, he might not be requested high enough to be added. Who knows though, maybe he does have enough requests, only Sakurai can tell.

Want: 20%
He'd be pretty interesting, though I'm not really holding my breath for him, as I'd much rather a character like Fawful or even Nabbit (who is realistically just as likely as Captain Toad)


Celica

Chance: 1%
This character just has too many things against it. To start, she's from a remake of a game that came out in a weird time for the roster, as well as her not being very popular, both in smash discussion and just her games in general, which didn't sell stellarly compared to the other new FE games. Now after that, Sakurai has heard the outrage over all of the FE characters and will definitely take that into account with the next smash (Ultimate), and with the limited amount of newcomers you can kiss goodbye even the slightest though of a new FE character joining as a newcomer in this game. The only way any kind of FE character will get into Ultimate is through an Echo Fighter, since those aren't newcomers, but it is much more likely that someone like Chrom or even Black Knight (who I actually wouldn't mind, but also really wouldn't work as an echo, moreso a regular clone).

Want: 1%
I have no ties to the FE series, especially when it comes to the games Celica is from, which I didn't even know the name of until recently. Like I said above, if I would have any FE character, it would be Black Knight, but only as an Ike clone.


Nominations: Louie x5
 
Last edited:

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
Joined
Jan 5, 2013
Messages
28,242
Location
https://twitter.com/BluePikmin11R
NNID
blue
Also, I would like to issue an apology for falling behind on calcs. Some personal stuff had happened. I will try to get everything done by this week. As an apology, everyone will get an extra 5 noms for the rest of the week starting tomorrow.

I will post calcs in the morning, try to get votes in by 9 AM EDT.


NOW IS OUR TIME TO NUKE THIS THREAD WITH LEON KENNEDY NOMINATIONS!!!
 
Last edited:

Fenriraga

Let me in! Tell me what you're thinking!
Premium
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 4, 2014
Messages
4,630
Location
Wave Road
NNID
DarkAura
Been awhile since I did one of these, but these two warrant my attention!

Cardboard Wario:
Chance: 35%

Sakurai has clearly shown he has an appreciation for the Paper Mario series, with it getting a stage and plenty of trophies in Brawl and 4. He has plenty to his kit to make him a unique fighter. However, I still feel like there are several other Mario characters with a bit more of a chance to make it before him, because... Well, he's still just another Mario. Yes, we now a game with 3 Links, but I still feel like being another version of an existing character is still a detriment no matter who you are.

Want: 80%

It's weird... TTYD is my favorite game of all time. Period. Has been for almost a decade. And I would LOVE to see Paper Mario make it into Smash. But I'm also one of those people who is very... avidly against the direction the series went after Super, let's say. And we're at a point where if Paper Mario did make it, those elements of the series are pretty much unavoidable. It's reasons like that which are why I support Geno: I want a RPG Mario rep, not simply a Paper version of Mario. Still, I'd be happy to have him!

No, she would NOT work as a Robin Clone/Echo, enough of that ridiculous claim:
Chance: 25%

Well, her biggest competition isn't a factor anymore!
Exasperated Sigh.
Well, at this point, I think that makes her FE's most likely representative. I'm sure Echoes was a thing before Sakurai finished his Project Plan. Of course, she still has a lot against her, given Sakurai's own feelings on FE's over representation, but still, I think her chances are pretty much at their highest now.

Want: 75%

Regardless of her being the direct competition of my second most wanted Smash fighter, I still absolutely love Celica as a character. I'd love to have her. Just... Only her please. No one else. Unless it's Lyn somehow.
 
Last edited:
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
862
Paper Mario
Chance- 50%
Want- 50%

It's hard to say. Paper Mario has been around since the N64 but he's never been in Smash yet. Personally I'd rather have new characters like Waluigi or Captain Toad then a 3rd Mario but I'm not against it either.

Celica
Chance- 30%
Want- 25%

We now know Smash Ultimate was proposed back in 2015 and I don't know when Celica's design was finalized. There was also the VA's direct statement that she wasn't brought in for anything Smash related during that IMDB leak (then again Lindbeck is a troll.) Lastly, Sakurai himself stated that there's enough Fire Emblem characters after Corrin was in so he may decide not to put anyone in at all. As for myself I don't particularly see anything interesting that can be done. She uses swords and sorcery, cool so does Robin. She hurts herself using her attacks, so does Pichu. Finally it's possible that Sakurai may skip echoes altogether and jump into 3 houses.

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
2,102
Were calcs ever posted for the Gen 7 Pokemon redo (Mimikyu, Decideueye and Lycanroc) and did I just miss them? I can't find them and I'm really interested in what changed after E3 :/
 

Lampy

Smash Hero
Joined
Feb 15, 2016
Messages
5,596
Location
salt land
3DS FC
0963-0942-7168
Abstain on Shantae.
Shovel Knight want: 85%
My most wanted third-party, conservative Smash fans be damned. I love his game and his moveset potential appeals to me, though once again with the limited number of slots Decidueye is the only character I'll be giving a 100% want.

Leon Kennedy x5
Tails x5
 
Last edited:

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
Joined
Jun 19, 2014
Messages
2,731
Location
United States
3DS FC
0018-1370-8449
Switch FC
0691-1639-9303
Shovel Knight

Chance: 1% - Best thing he has going for him is how he did in the ballot, and I don't think that's going to help him much.

Want: 0% - I have no interest in seeing Indies in Smash.


Shantae

Chance: 1% - Another highly unlikely character. Nothing else to say, really.

Want: 0% - I have no interest in seeing Indies in Smash.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x10
 
Last edited:

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,280
NNID
TCT~Phantom
As a reminder to everyone, since I have fallen behind, I am giving everyone extra noms for the rest of the week. 5 extra noms each day. Use them well, we will not have another purge until likely mid august.
 
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,259
Location
Australia
Quadruple 0 today
We have limited space, and I don't them using any of it to make two rather no name third party characters. Even if the game Is good, that doesn't mean you should be in Smash.

Prediction
Geno....... 14%
Dillon 11%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x10
 
Joined
Jul 16, 2014
Messages
3,063
3DS FC
0189-8502-2597
NNID
WitchofKnowledge
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
Shovel Knight and Shantae

Chance: 1%

Want: 0%

I still don't think Indie characters are making it in and we have very limited number of newcomers now. And there are a lot more characters that will likely get in like Ashley, K. Rool, Simon.

Geno Prediction: 16.77%
Dillon Prediction: 11.66%

Lloyd Irving x5
Concept: More than 5 Unique Newcomers x5
 
Last edited:

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,280
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Gonna just post my ratings now

Shantae and Shovel Knight

1% Chance Each

You know this song and dance. Spots are tight and I fail to see how an indie character would make it in. Even if it is appealing to fanservice, indies are not the biggest thing they could do. Bigger third parties would be more fanservicy in a sense. I doubt that Shovel Knight or Shantae did well enough on the ballot to even be considered.

Shovel Knight 80% Want

I like Shovel Knight as a game, even if Butt Butt is the worst character in that game, Spectral Knight and Plague Knight are best boys. The game is cool, has a good soundtrack, and is a ton of fun.

Shantae 20% Want

...wish I could say the same for Shantae. I have not had as much fun with her games. However she does have some vocal fans, so I will give her that. Also she cute.

Nominating Smash Run x 10
 

Opossum

Thread Title Changer
GRimer
Joined
Aug 10, 2011
Messages
31,113
Location
This Thread
3DS FC
4742-4911-3431
NNID
OpossumGuy
Switch FC
SW 2859 6322 5208
Shovel Knight

Chance: 5%
He had a notable ballot campaign and was, notably, published by Nintendo in Japan. Having the first third party amiibo is pretty noteworthy as well. Nintendo is getting increasingly fond of their indie offerings, and if any indie character were to get into Ultimate, it would be Shovel Knight, without a doubt.

Want: 100%
He fits right in. For Shovelry!


Double zeroes for Shantae.
I think it's Shovel Knight or bust for indies. Plus I'm not sure how popular or notable she is in Japan.

Nominating "Reinhardt gets a trophy" x10
 
Joined
Aug 10, 2013
Messages
684
Location
(´・ω・`)
Shovel Knight & Shantae

Chance - 1%

Despite that the two may have had pretty solid results in the ballot, their absolute lack of any Japanese fan support really hold them back. I can see them getting trophies, like Commander Video, at absolute best.

Want - 0%

Indie characters do not have a place in Super Smash Brothers.
 

CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,830
Location
New York
Indie day! What do we have from before?
Knight of the Shovels

Chance: 20%
Want: 20%

No chance - this is a dead franchise. All of his games are old by now, and there hasn’t been a new one in ages.

Oh wait...that’s just the design. Retreaux - shorthand for “the peak of video gaming was back in the early 90s, and simply by cutting back on graphics, it is demonstrably a better game” or “we’re not able to keep up with the times”

I’m really not a fan of the classic hipster idea of “lol let’s make it look older becuz only old things are real art and new stuff is by definition trash.” I wasn’t really into games in the 8- and 16-bit eras because I couldn‘t really get into it then. Same now. This could be hands down the greatest video game of all time, and I wouldn’t be able to get past the art style. Also, I’m not a fan of platformers since my go to is an RPG I can lose myself in and play for 100+ hours and all but forget my real name since I’m too busy lost in Hyrule/Tamriel/Thedas/the year 2277.

Essentially like Megaman, but without the iconic status. And even Megaman’s got some games welcoming him into the modern age.

He’s got a design that would fit into Smash, and he’s even got an amiibo to go with it. But still a third party who is not majorly iconic. I think he’s got the best chance of the indies, but I’m not a fan of throwing open the floodgates for third parties in Smash in general. Sure there are some I like and I’d put in because I’m hypocritical like that, but I’m not at all going to be broken up if they’re not - they don’t belong here. I think 3rd parties are great DLC, and there are at least two major 1st parties who need to be in before any third parties.

At least this one would only make me roll my eyes instead of be annoyed if he got in, so it’s something.
Changed a bit, but things still aren't looking good. Sakurai hasn't (yet) worked with a western developer (and if he did, I'd prefer Bethesda to be first). With limited slots, I think he might still have a chance, but a smaller one.

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

I Dream of Jeannie
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

She has a fanbase, I'll give you that.

Still, I think she's cooled off in chance a lot since the last round of speculation. I know they just had the Nindies showcase, but Shantae's not on the list of top-sellers, at least according to Kotaku. Her biggest competition is and always has been Shovel Knight, and he's in a much better place than she is.

Never played the game, so all I know of her is the fanbase from here. And her character design. And as a Zelda fan, if we're going to have some Bedlah Babe in the game, I'd rather a Gerudo.
Sounds about right, but I'll echo a post I made in the general thread about her...
I dunno about Shantae. Honestly, I think there's a much better character who's dressed like that...
Nom: Smash Run x10
 
Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
830
Location
Hunting Down Ever Amiibo
NNID
KyleWussler
Shovel Knight and Shantae
chance
would love indie's to get in but with a limited roster and fan favorites I just don't think they will make it I can see Shovel Knight more maybe a assist trophy even but playable this go is a no.
15%

want
Shantae-abstaing don't know her
shovel knight 90% would love to have him but want others more

nominating
incenoroar x5
labo man x5

predicting
geno 40%
Dillion 5%
 
Last edited:

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,758
Well... There looks bad for them because of them change of focus.

Shoven Knight and Shantae

Chance: 5%

Want: 55%

This people simply can't fit in this kind of project unless the fan demand was that high... but wasn't enough to be noticed for Sakurai.

_______________

Predictions:

Geno: 36.5%
Dillon: 10.1%

Nominations:

Leon Kennedy x10
 

Nebelung

Smash Cadet
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
73
Shantae
Chance: 0%
I don't know... Indies get a decent amount of discussion but I don't feel like they'd get in. Perhaps the "discussion" part puts them over some characters, but I don't think they have enough to get somewhere based on what we have. Maybe after a trophy or costume or something, and then we can talk more seriously about chances.

Want: 0%
... nah...



Shovel Knight
Chance: 0%
... I wouldn't be too shocked at a costume or trophy maybe, but there's other characters that are first or third party that get talked about more and would be prioritized. I thiink Shovel has the best chance at indies, but yep, zero percent.

Want: 5%
Okay, i DO think it would be cool to have an indie in Smash. Shovel Man doesn't interest me too much though, on that scale. I think he is kinda cool and had a cool game but he is not the coolest. You feel me?



Noms: Leon Kennedy x10
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
Joined
Mar 8, 2014
Messages
2,709
Shovel Knight

Chance: 2%
Want: 10%

"What's a shovel knight?" - A Japanese person

Well.... he's beloved here in America, but is kinda just there in Japan. Not helping matters is that Yacht Club Games has been stuck making all these DLCs for a bunch of characters in Shovel Knight (they were all bosses?). All Shovel Knight has going for him is the one game. I can't say Shovel Knight making a bunch of cameos in a bunch of indie games is nothing to consider when Ashley is used for similar things in Japan. The thing separating the two I'm seeing is that Ashley is strictly promotion, and Shovel Knight actually appears in those games (to what extent varies). He's an Indie darling, and that's all I see him as.

Shantae

Chance: 1%
Want: 10%

Another Indie darling. Shantae at least has a couple of more games to her name than Shovel Knight. And that's really it. She never really had a big break. Wayforward pushed for Shantae, but I don't think doing that would do them any favors. It's one thing for fans to form campaigns around certain characters, but a game dev pushing one of their own? I expect a similar push by Wayforward if Ultimate DLC is announced in the future.

Pray for either of these two to get a trophy. Commander Video of Bit Trip, & Runner fame got one.

Nominations
Rowlet x10
 
Joined
Jan 23, 2010
Messages
619
Location
Princeton, NJ
NNID
Runic_SSB
Shovel Knight

Chance: 0%
He's a 3rd party with very little to do with Nintendo, and he's not very popular in Japan. This was originally 5%, but I bumped it down to 0% because we're not getting that many newcomers apparently.

Want: 0%
I hate Shovel Knight. I hate that the difficulty spike between World 1 and World 2 is higher than Mount Everest. I hate that they have mechanics like armor and relics that are entirely useless because 99% of your kills are shovel pogos, and like meal tickets and ichors that are useless because 99% of your deaths are instakill pits. I hate that you lose money when you die- dying is enough of a penalty and it makes players scared to take risks, it's really no better than having lives. I hate that it romanticizes the age when developers purposely made games super hard to either con you out of your money at arcades or screw over rental companies by artificially padding out game time. And worst of all, I hate that there's actually a really good game in there that's ruined by all this bull****.

Shantae

Chance: 15%
She's somewhat popular and has a strong connection to Nintendo. However, she's still a 3rd party, which means she faces competition from characters that are both much more popular and have more of a history with the company.

Want: 5%
I don't like her games, at all.

Geno and Dillon prediction: 20%

Nominations:
Raiden x10
 

Nerd Saga Nate

Part-Time Youtuber, Full Time Nerd
Joined
Feb 5, 2013
Messages
6,631
Location
Bored
Shovel Knight
Chance: 0.5% -
Roster space is way too limited this time around; they aren't going to utilize indie characters, especially one with such little legacy so far.
Want: 0% - God, I never understood why people want this guy so obsessively. His game's good, but it's no masterpiece and he has no legacy behind his name yet. Heck, he's not even Nintendo-exclusive. For a normal third party, that's nothing, but for an indie? It'd probably be a requirement.

Shantae
Chance: 1.5% -
See above. The only reason I'm putting her higher is because she has more legacy behind her name.
Want: 50% - Unlike Shovel Knight, I adore Shantae and her games. Get her in there!

Nominations:
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
Joined
Jan 5, 2013
Messages
28,242
Location
https://twitter.com/BluePikmin11R
NNID
blue
My views on indies are very much similar to what I thought about Crash and Rayman. I do not think he will focus on Western third-parties, but rather focus on completing the remaining bases for Japanese third-parties before transitioning to Western territory. I am even more unsure about indies now considering their status being smaller than big third-party companies like Activision, Bethesda, and Ubisoft. I believe Shovel Knight and Shantae are very unlikely now.

x10 Leon Kennedy
 
Last edited:

Souldin

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 30, 2014
Messages
250
Location
United Kingdom
3DS FC
4854-6557-6769
NNID
Souldin
Man, people are putting these two way lower than I expected. I honestly don't see much difference between whether they are 3rd party or indie; relevance, history and move-set potential apply all the same. Heck, if we do take into account the indie factor, that boosts their chances rather than lessens, given how much Nintendo likes to promote their Nindies since the 3DS/Wii U era. It wouldn't surprise me if they gave a Nindie an ultimate push into a playable role... heck, they already gave a trophy to one in SSB4.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 20%
He's popular, has an Amiibo despite being a 3rd party, has cameo'd in just about everything else alongside game characters from all over the world (so it's very hard not to have seen him), so honestly... I'd rank him as one of the more likely 3rd party characters. His major downside is that he has only appeared in a single game... and is of course a 3rd party; which is even tougher to contend with at a time of limited newcomers. Still, I think there is a strong chance of one more 3rd party series being added pre-DLC, and Shovel Knight is one of the more likely ones.​

Want: 5%
I do not like 3rd party additions, particularly the idea of one with only one game to his name. That said, Shovel Knight has a pretty cool design and he's the 3rd party addition my little brother would be happiest with; so I gave him a 5%.​

Shantae
Chance: 25%
Shantae has a lot of the positives of Shovel Knight, minus the amiibo, along with a key bonus; multiple games and history. Shantae has been around since the ending days of Game Boy Colour, she has had four games spanning from that time to present day; all of said games featuring on Nintendo systems first and foremost. She has move-set potential, relevancy, popularity; I see her as one of the top likely 3rd party additions of all (far off from Rayman, but that's because I think he's so much more likely as a 3rd party than his competition).​

Want: 20%
She's 3rd party. As much as I like Shantae as a character, and have greatly enjoyed her last 2 games, I still do not care much for 3rd party additions. I see SSB as a celebration of Nintendo IP's history; a chance to let them shine from the best known to the obscure. So whilst I like Shantae to the point of saying she'd be the 3rd party addition that would please me the most (she was second... but Bomberman was sadly lost in the great Assist Trophy Apocalypse of 12th June); the fact that she would be a 3rd party addition would still annoy me on some level.​

Nominations x5: Fatal Frame Protagonist
x2: Tingle (The Legend of Zelda)
x3: Lip (Panel de Pon)
 

Hot_N_Tasty

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 17, 2018
Messages
170
Shantae and Shovel Knight Chances: 5% Both are indie games with a clamor ballot-wise here, but not enough to stand out to my knowledge. I think DLC is their only real shot.

Abstain for wanting of both of them, I haven't played either's game.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jun 22, 2018
Messages
1,605
Shantae

Chance 1%
I don’t think indie characters have a very good chance in general and if one gets in it’s probably not going to be her.

Want 0%
I don’t really care either way. There are plenty of obscure characters I want, so if she gets in I’d be happy for her fans. But I’m not a fan.


Shovel Knight

Chance 40%
If any indie character gets in the game, it’ll be him. He already has an amiibo, so, half the battle is won.

Want 50%
I do love Shovel Knight and his move set would be very unique. But I just think there’s more classic characters that should get in before him. But if he gets in, also cool.
 

Nimbostratus

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 14, 2014
Messages
419
Chance:
Shovel Knight- 10%
Shantae- 5%

Both have some amount of popularity, Shovel Knight in particular, but it's Western dominated and probably not enough to be competitive for the few slots. Sakurai has great third party characters at his disposal with companies he's already made deals with, so I don't really see him going out of his way to deal with indie Western developers for characters with moderate Western support. I'll give Shovel Knight a bit of an edge for the Amiibo and JP publishing. He seems to show up more on polls as well.

Want:
Shovel Knight- 15%
Shantae- 2%

Yeah, I'm one of those conservative Smash fans. It's nothing personal, just business. Not enough prestige to be worth the slots, in my book. I make exceptions sometimes due to bias, but I'm afraid I haven't played these games.
Again, I'll give Shovel Knight the edge as I at least have heard of his game and popularity outside of Smash speculation. No, really... I only have any idea who Shantae is because of Smash speculation.
 
Last edited:

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,474
Shovel Knight

Chance - 2.5% - With roster spots seemingly tighter than ever before, I don't see why they would go with any any indie. They are inherently less popular and known compared to most other third parties, and Shovel Knight isn't an exception. He comes closer to mainstreem due to consistant cameos, and he also was the first third party amiibo but I think that ultimitely he lacks the true star power that other third parties would provide.

Want - 70% - I like him, but I would prefer Shantae. I still can respect what he has done, though, and I think he could be interesting.


Shantae

Chance - 1.75% - While Shantae may have more history on her side, ultimately I think Shovel Knight has more going for him. He has more popularity and I think is generally more well known, even among indies. Still, that loyalty to Nintendo cannot be ignored, and she is older than any other indie character you can name, which gives her some merrit.

Want - 85% - I think she'd be the most fun of all indies, moveset wise. I also think indies are good idea for smash, so I kinda realy want her in.


Predictions

Geno - 4.25% - Not worth the trouble in most people's eyes.

Dillion - 13.24% - An e-shop hero that got his full game, but never became a star...


Nominations

Nihilego X10
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
5,790
Like Crash and Rayman, I don’t feel confident rating any third parties that don’t kill vampires, and especially not two indies. That said, I really like both of them, and I don’t have a defined stance towards indies in Smash. They definitely deserve to get a trophy more than ****ing Commander Video.

Nominations: Leon KennedyX5
Ayumi TachibanaX5
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
Nov 24, 2001
Messages
1,752
Location
DC
3DS FC
3823-8583-9137
The thing I'd think with indies is that they're probably more thirsty for promotion, so Nintendo would probably have an easier time getting them in - I don't know if they had to offer Square anything (royalties or otherwise), for example, but I doubt that Shovel Knight or Shantae's developers would ask for anything in return. Getting Shovel Knight in Smash would be a bigger boon to Shovel Knight than to Smash. On the other hand, if being in Smash was valuable enough that Square offered Nintendo something (like promises of more support for Nintendo consoles), the thing with indies is... they don't really have much of anything to offer beyond what they were already doing.

So I'd think they'd probably need a strong reason to include an indie character. Simply having "an indie rep" is not a good enough motivation, or at least, there's no reason to think that Nintendo would care about that.

The stronger reasons would be 1. popularity or 2. Sakurai just has a thing for the character. Now, I don't know what Sakurai's tastes are but I assume he's less into Western characters on average. But being easily adapted and having interesting/unique moveset potential would probably be a factor there as well.

Fortunately for Shovel Knight and Shantae, they both would fit into Smash very easily. They don't strike me as being especially unique, but they wouldn't have to be too redundant either. The question is whether there's any reason to think they're on Sakurai's radar and he'd like them... I don't think there is any evidence specific to them.

So the other question is whether they have the popularity necessary. Both of them have some dedicated fans, but it's less clear to me how well distributed that is (do they have any popularity in Japan, for example?). Shovel Knight didn't get a Japanese release until 2016. Shovel Knight has sold pretty well, however, with over 2 million copies sold. It seems likely to me that those sales were disproportionately on Nintendo platforms.

In the end, I think they're too small, and the available slots too few, to think they have much chance of getting in. I feel like a fair amount of the support for both of them is about "having an indie rep" and seeing that they have the moveset potential (unlike, say, Super Meat Boy, who wouldn't work very well). But I can't dismiss them out of hand - maybe they have reasonable popularity among Smash fans in Japan/Europe as well.

Shantae chance: 2.5%
I just don't think she has enough popularity outside certain hardcore fans. But she's not totally negligible. But I don't really have a handle on how fans in Japan or Europe think
Shantae want: 45%
I'm mostly indifferent, but I'd prefer she not.

Shovel Knight chance: 5.5%
Shovel Knight seems significantly more popular, certainly has done better in US polls, and that matters. If only US fans mattered, he'd be a decent contender. But I don't really know if he's anywhere near popular enough outside the US - I do know the Japanese release was significantly later.
Shovel Knight want: 56%
I'm mostly indifferent, but I think that Shovel Knight is a high-quality game that deserves recognition. If he's not popular in Japan, maybe the design and humor don't appeal to them, but the gameplay is so solid I think they should check it out.
 

Sari

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
2,951
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Shovel Knight

Chance: 1%. Has an amiibo but otherwise he has no relevance in regards to Smash or the Japanese fanbase. His popularity seems to have went down since the Smash 4 days.
Want: 1%. Love his game though don't really care about him tbh.

Shantae

Chance: 5%. Fairly popular though she is easily among the less popular third party characters.
Want: 50%. I love the Shantae series and wouldn't mind if she made an appearance since she has a lot of moveset potential.
 
Last edited:

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
Joined
Jan 31, 2012
Messages
4,083
Location
Canada
Shovel Knight: 8% chance / 30% want
Shantae: 4% chance / 85% want

I'd love an Indie character but I don't think any of them are coming unless they killed it on the ballot. These are the only two contenders imo.

x10 nomz Tapu Koko
 
Last edited:
Top