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[YoshiandToad]

Hold on. Toad would never get it. You should just get comfortable with that fact so you don't continually get disappointed with each new smash bros roster. Toad is a helper character and is just one in a thousand of his kind. He has no special abilities other than playing the referee in most games (Mario Party, Olympic games) and simply is used as a filler character when someone more fitting can't take his place (SM3DW and SMB2 where he had to take the place of that random strong guy who we had no Mario equivalent of). 90% of the time his role is to be saved by Mario/Luigi. Luigi's mansion 2 he's too scared to leave the ghost mansion that you have to escort him out. He runs around screaming every time he gets scared. Only in rare cases is he playable and even then he relies on items/powerups to do anything other than jump on people. If he gets in, we may as well let Goombas, Shy Guys, Boos and all of the other "1 in a million baddies" etc into the game. And yes all have been playable before in other games. If they chose any character, it's going to be someone who pays tribute to the respective game they game from. You shouldn't get all huffy over "marketing nonsense" when it's just a tradition they've been doing since SSB64.

Meowth has always had a decent chance though. Too bad. Maybe next time. He woulda been a good idea in 64 IMO over Jiggly when he was at his highest peak of relevance.

Honestly I'd say it's the other way round;

Meowth's ****ed, his time has passed and Gamefreak have confirmed they use the Pokemon that is 'Hot' right now. I'll have to give up on him, it's just too late.

Toad meanwhile is appearing in more and more playable games and has had a far more hands on role of recent, has defeated Bowser in 3D World, Wario in Wario's Woods and Wart in SMB2. The Toad species have been hands on in NSMBWii, Captain Toad levels from SM3DW have been proven to be insanely popular and Nintendo are considering making a spinoff series based on them.

I feel he'll have a stronger chance next time if he carries on getting larger and larger roles.

"Only in rare cases is he playable and even then he relies on items/powerups to do anything other than jump on people." Also seems like a really hypocritical line. Ya mean like Mario, Luigi and Peach? What a strange argument.

Also Toad IS the random strong guy, that's established canon.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

now before I give my rateings, i'm going to give out a little bit of my thinking.
the main reason why we have seen a Zelda newcomer is because we had a fifth spot available, which we thought Mario and pokemon would also get a fifth spot, and seeing Mario get one only proved that further so a fifth spot seem practically a given.
but now after the direct things shook up a little, mainly because our theoretical fifth spot got taken, by sheik who we all thought would still be with Zelda. and since ganondorf is a garneted. we are rating for a sixth spot. something that seems likely only for Pokémon, not even Mario is seen likely to be given a 6th spot, too me that practically destroys all Zelda characters chances, the hope for a Zelda character is practically lined with that of the chances of mario getting another spot.
I view the Mario series having 7.50% chance of gaining a second newcomer, i'll be giving each Zelda newcomer accordingly there chances from highest to lowest.
Tetra - 3.50%
tetra has the biggest chance mainly because she's pseudo clone material (in other words a "fake" clone) tetra can be seen given similar specials that Zelda has and even the same final smash (i'll image an outbreak would happen though) but yet still have enough (mainly in the a moves) to be given an entire different approach, and that is if we were talking about them running out of time, they could make her, her own unique character if they wanted, there are multiple paths they could take, which is how I view her with the biggest (impossible til more information) shot
want - 50%
my want has decreased mainly because of the fact a Zelda newcomer is unlikely, but i'm still basically neutral
Toon Zelda - 1.50%
basically repeat what I said above but remove the multiple paths and unique character parts, that severely hinges her that they would rather focus on more unique gameplay, but clone material does help being number two on the chart
want - 10%
I see very little interest
Tingle - 1.00%
surviving the assist trophy massacre doesn't help when your suspected to be going in another pit. though he does have his own games series and made prominent appearances through out Zelda games, along with having a semi important and a very important part in two games. that just basically what puts him up others
want - 50%
neutral always have been
Ghirahim - 1.00%
the only noticeable thing he has is popularity, he may have been the villain in the most recent popular Zelda game, but so was zant, he was the boss of the last Zelda game, and skull kid was also an popular Zelda boss, that also fell flat in assist trophy status. and minda was a very popular character during brawl time, shared the same fate as skull kid. Zelda characters have mostly been one offs, and those that are popular one offs get subjected to assist trophies and maybe just even smaller roles. Rosalina and greninja may prove that popular newer characters can be in, but Rosalina has spread to game to game and even became playable in the most recent game, where she kept coming back and becoming a mainstay in the Mario roster, greninja will most likely become playable in every pokemon game so forth as every other starter before it has come. ghirahim, based on past events will most likely die off and become forgotten in the bundle of Zelda characters that they have, I expect him to be an assist trophy or an trophy and nothing more
want - 85%
I've found ghirahim to be an enjoyable character, I would've liked his inclusion
Vaati - 0.50%
vaati used to be a better competitor but now time has been bad for him, I imagine that not very many people know about him in the public eye, he's fading like other Zelda villains not named ganon/ganondorf, if they were going to put a character up it would be someone that people know and would get excited or at least interested in, more people would be confused than glad by his inclusion, the only reason he's not at the bottom is because unlike others he's not similar to other characters and has appeared multiple times as a villain, something only Gannon says he can do
want - 50%
neutral
Impa - 0%
first off, anyone thinking sheik would get replaced is not exactly the best of logic, sheik would return regardless, her chances involved more of being a peusdo/semi clone of sheik, though with sheik taking a spot, there seems to be no need of an individual ninja, it would be an unnecessary waste and one I can be positive that her chances are done now
want - 60%
unlike others I never really found impa to be a problem, I wouldn't have mind and saw a little interest, though I do have others I cared more for

also just in case anyone asks why I listed them all, its mainly because it was easier for me to do my rating this way

 

[andimidna]

Well after a long, long, long break, I am back to RTC!!!

So who are we rating today?
The two biggest Zelda newcomers?
Alrighty then, this is gonna be an interesting one!
Ghirahim Chance: 50%
Let me address this first,

Interesting....
This really makes me reconsider Ghirahim, as I thought he was extremely unlikely before.

I think this really boosts his chances, but there is one point that you forgot.

The other reason Rosalina and Greninja were chosen is because they bring completely new playstyles to the table. In other words, they are unique.
Rosalina has the whole Luma-controlling thing, and Greninja has a water-samurai moveset.

You know who else is unique?
Tingle.
He has balloons, items, potions, etc..

What does Ghirahim have?
A sword, and magic.

That doesn't seem very unique.

Overall, I'm gonna give both him and Tingle 50% chance, as they each have one half of the reasons the Mario and Pokémon newcomers were chosen.

Ghirahim Want: 70%
He's FABULOUS!!!!!
He is a cool character, and while I think he doesn't necessarily deserve a slot on the roster, I would gladly accept his inclusion!

Tingle Chance: 50%
As I said before I'm giving both Ghirahim and Tingle 50% Chance, as they each hold half of what made the Mario and Pokémon newcomers be chosen over everyone else (Ghirahim is new and at the peak of his popularity, while Tingle has uniqueness and moveset potential).

Tingle Want: 85%
I love Tingle!
I don't know why everyone hates him. The only thing I have ever had against him is the whole Triforce Chart translation prices. Friggin' con artist.
But seriously, I feel he has a lot of moveset potential, and could make for a very interesting character.

Toon Zelda Prediction: 0.25%
Considering transformations are out, and Toon Zelda has nothing unique about her, I'd say her chance are extremely low. The only reason she was remotely likely before was because she had Tetra, who could be unique and different, but transformations are gone, so now Toon Zelda must be a standalone, which would be an absolute waste of a roster slot.

Tetra Prediction: 20%
As I said before, transformations are gone and a Toon Zelda & Tetra team is literally impossible. Though a standalone Tetra seems decent enough.
Impa Prediction: 0.15%
With Sheik being revamped as her own character, we already have a Shekiah slot on the roster. We don't need another.

Ok, like I promised. I'm here with Uniqueness Tier List thread results.

THE UNIQUENESS TIER LIST:

S TIER:
Bayonetta
Lip
Medusa
Zoroark
Chibi Robo
Porky
King Boo

A TIER:
Shulk
Isaac
Tiki
Midna and Wolf Link
Paper Mario
Bomberman
Muddy Mole
King K. Rool
Bubbles
__________

Ridley
Little Mac
Palutena
Duck Hunt Dog
Slime
Bowser Jr.
Dark Matter
Captain Syrup
Ghirahim
Black Mage
Anna
Diddy/Dixie
Genesect
Eevee
Dillon
__________

Wonder Red
Dr. Kawashima
Micaiah
Professor Layton
Vaati
Robin
Classic Ganon
Alph, Brittany, Charlie Trio
Chrom/Lucina
Leif
Mona
Jack Frost
Zant

B TIER:
Jimmy T.
Stork
Krystal
Mr. Resetti
Tingle
Masked Man
Marshall
Geno
Ray MK
Takamaru
Mach Rider
Andy
Tharja
Sheriff
Greninja
__________

Goose
Saki
Victini
Hades
Toad
Pac-Man
Black Shadow
Prince Sable
Sukapon
Hawlucha
__________

Meowth
Daitoryo
Captain Rainbow
Chrom
Bandana Dee
Lucina
Rayman
Impa

C TIER:
Mallo
Gardevoir
Tetra
Blaziken
Lyn
__________

Mii
Samurai Goroh
Toon Ganondorf
__________

Diskun
Cranky Kong
Dixie Kong
Louie
E. Gadd

D TIER:
Urban Champion
Magnus
__________

Slippy
Jumpman
Alph
Dark Pit
__________

F TIER:
__________

Toon Zelda
__________

Ninten
__________

Toon Sheik

As I expected, Ghirahim has been considered more unique than Tingle, and I agree with that.
There's much more to work with, mutiple fighting styles.
Ghirahim was ranked A and Tingle was ranked B+...
In fact, here's the full Zelda list:

1. Midna and Wolf Link: A+
2. Ghirahim: A
3. Vaati: A-
4. Classic Ganon: A-
5. Zant: A-
6. Tingle: B+
7. Impa: B-
8. Tetra: C+
9. Toon Zelda: F
10. Toon Sheik: F- -

Here's what people said about Ghirahim:

Alright, something I'm good at. Ghirahim propaganda!

My model of Ghirahim closely reflects his style in Skyward Sword.

He wields one sword in a fencing style, which contrasts all the other sword-users as they generally use some form of straight sword and slash a lot, whereas Ghirahim thrusts and swings with grandeur.

But the main thing that could make him stand out would utilize his knives in a fashion similar to Olimar's Pikmin.

With his standard special (chargable), with a snap he summons knives to surround him. When he has knives, his attack power and range is boosted and he takes less damage. When he uses another special move or a Smash attack, he sends the knives away as a projectile attack. He also loses them if the knives are directly attacked by other players.

Another ability he could have, is multiple teleportation abilities (like in Skyward Sword). His up special is a warp similar to Sheik's, but is a lot more versatile because it is faster.

His down special is a Counter. He raises his sword in front of him, and when he is attacked, he warps around the opponent and does a counter attack. What makes his unique from Marth/Lucario's counter is that he appears in the direction specified by the player. Hold up, he thrusts up from beneath the player. Hold down, he plummets from above with a downward strike.

His side special is simply an evil version of the Skyward Strike. I figured this is the best option for a side special, as he does use one, and it also represents a very important part of Skyward Sword's gameplay that isn't exclusive to him.

His Final Smash is probably the hardest to decide on. Most people propose that Ghirahim summons Demise, but I feel that would sort of take away from having Ghirahim in the first place. If Demise can just "appear", why doesn't he fight instead?
Perhaps the Imprisoned would be more optimal, having him stomp around the stage for a few seconds before being resealed or whatever.
I think the easiest and most logical option is an evil version of the Triforce Slash where Ghirahim traps the opponent against a bed of diamond magic. It only hits one, but it is almost a guaranteed kill.

So that's the moveset I think would be the most unique for him that isn't a stretch. I designed him to be very technical in that regard, so you really have to know what he can do before using him, perfectly reflecting his cunning.

Ghirahim: A+

He's the archetypal magic swordsman, augmenting his style of swordplay by casting spells and conjuring up minions to buy time. His swordplay isn't all that good on its own, but the idiosyncratic way he uses it and the ease it would take to implement into Smash Bros is fantastic. Ghirahim has legitimate sword fights against Link in Skyward Sword where he utilizes every technique you can imagine for any type of generic slash or swipe with an unused type of thin, curved blade that doesn't have great range and makes up for that in the power it can afford. Not to mention if Sakurai wanted, he can have Ghirahim summon a wholly different, huge two-handed sword that has its own mechanics.

That is what his swordplay can do on its own, where Ghirahim gains most of his points is in his use of magic. In the middle of his boss fights, he can summon diamond-shaped knives that circle his body that he can fire at Link altogether, in a pattern or use as a defensive shield. He can freely teleport around the battlefield for an obvious recovery, shoot magical projectiles and has another, metallic form that is an obvious final smash but can be implemented in his moveset on a special. If you use his last fight as inspiration, there's a move he performs creating a static, electric current between his hands that could be really fun. Just as a magic swordsman, Ghirahim would be an easy, creative and fun set that stands out from the Fire Emblem lords as well as Zelda.

That's just using the potential from his boss fights, he can directly cast all kinds of spells and enchantments, such as summoning a tornado, dozens of gooks/Moblins and other enemies from Skyward Sword. The best one to use may in fact be his ability to conjure walls that separate him from his opponents, forcing them to fight through legions of minions as Ghirahim gathers back his strength. This would allow for a focus on Ghirahim building up his powerful magic in a projectile or perhaps charging a transformation. It would be a set focused around stage control and fighting the foe directly at the same time. The amount of ways all of his potential for moves can pan out makes him a very unique character.

Ghirahim: A-
Ghirahim has some potential. He is a swordsman, but only uses his sword about half the time. So he gets some points there. Notable techniques of his involve teleportation, his floating red diamonds and reflexes/hard skin which allows him to catch swords. I have an idea for a counter type move of his called Sword Catch. The basic idea is that instead of automatically attacking, it would be an auto-grab counter. Also, if the opponent was attacking with an item (like the beam sword) Ghirahim would fling it out of his hands (like he can do with Link's sword). His red diamonds could be used in various ways: sent out in multiple directions, encircle opponents then hit, or as a shield/attack (sort of similar to Batman's bats in Injustice). His teleportation could be used as either an Up Special or Down Special. Basic attacks could involve his sword techniques and more basic moves like punches and kicks. Ghirahim has some basic moves, but he has a flair that will make them interesting. His personality combined with his elegant movement make him a fairly unique character overall. A taunt involving his tongue is a must.

Although I never got the chance to rate him on his day, I personally agree with his score completely.
He's the most unique option Zelda has left, because Midna and Zant are impossible.

Do you agree?
Tingle has basically nothing to pull from the Zelda series, but he has moves in his own little series...
However, they aren't anything spectacular.
Balloon Recovery isn't new.
Rupee Gun isn't unique. (I imagine it would work like either Fox's, Wolf's, Snake's, or Samus's)
I'm having a difficult time understanding how Tingle got above a C+

 

[Overtaken]

Tingle:
Chance: 2%
Want: 1%

Ghirahim
Chance: 35%
Want: 75%

 

[IvanQuote]

Tingle:

Chance: 20%

He is one of the two Zelda characters to get his own spinoff series, so his relevance can't be ignored. Also, he can make to be a unique character with a very strange moveset (though Villager took his recovery). That being said, assuming 5 reps per series max, he suffers stiff competition with Ganondoof.

Want: 0%

I'm an American. Nuff said.

Ghirahim:

Chance: 20%

I hate to say it, but I think Tingle would be more of a unique character than Debbie here. While he wields like 4 different types of swords and he has those majestic arms of his, I fear it will not be enough to set him apart from other sword users. Also, he suffers stiff competition from Ganondork, ESPECIALLY if he gets his sword this time around. Also from Greninja due to his tongue.

Want: 35%

Out of all the Zelda characters that I would want, apart from MM Link, Midna, and the aforementioned Gsnoog, Ghirahim would probably be my top choice. I'm still preferring that the good King of Evil will return though.

 

[Erimir]

Wow, the ratings for these two are all over the place. 0-1's and 50-60's for both characters. Seemed like people were more in agreement when we rated them before.

As far as I see it, the only thing that affects Tingle and Ghirahim's chances in the Direct is the fact that Sheik gets an independent slot. We also get some idea of what the Mario and Pokemon rosters will be like. Pokemon will probably have Jigglypuff and maybe have Mewtwo or another Pokemon, so it will have at least 5, maybe 6 slots. Mario has 5, and people aren't expecting another newcomer. So we'd be thinking that Zelda would get more slots than Mario, and maybe more than Pokemon if they get a newcomer.

BUT... Sakurai said he thought about it in terms of movesets in the first place. And in Melee we had 5 Zelda movesets, 5 Mario movesets and 4 Pokemon. In Brawl, we had 5 Zelda movesets, 4 Mario movesets and 6 Pokemon. So it's obvious that they don't have to be equal. But we also saw that Mario and Zelda got no newcomers in Brawl, which tells us that Sakurai may not feel the need. Neither series is Pokemon which has rapid cast churn*. But then again, it's also been a while since Zelda got a newcomer.

Another issue is that if Ganondorf's moveset is revamped (and it seems likely with all the changes we've seen so far), combined with Zelda and Sheik getting very significant changes, that might be seen as a significant refresh of the Zelda roster on its own, with no need for a newcomer. Frankly, I would be pleased with the Zelda roster as long as we get a properly revamped Ganondorf.

All in all, I think that a Zelda newcomer seems less necessary AND less likely than before the Direct. I was thinking it was maybe a 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 chance... now I think it's more like a 1 in 6 chance.

*Which is why I find it so weird that people keep comparing Pokemon to Mario and other series. Pokemon is based around adding more and more Pokemon to the cast, Mario and Zelda are not. Fire Emblem is the series most parallel to Pokemon when it comes to roster choices. Zelda has a core cast and a few supporting players who largely have remained the same. Impa, later Tingle, later Linebeck. As for villains, Ganondorf is the clear winner, with Vaati appearing a couple times too. Other supporting characters are mostly more minor or not recurring. Pokemon getting newcomers every game makes sense, potential Zelda and Mario newcomers need to be more important, IMO, to make the grade.

So with that more general Zelda discussion... Consider the low likelihood of a Zelda character a big minus on both of them (and on the next day's Zelda characters)

Ghirahim

+ Popular as far as Zelda options
+ Good moveset potential, he'd be easy to come up with the moves for
+ Flamboyant style and personality would make him a fun character
+ Major role in the last console Zelda, playing the primary antagonist (even if he wasn't The Big Bad)

- - He's likely never going to appear again
- Skyward Sword not very represented in the style of the Zelda characters

Tingle

+ Popular in Japan
++ One of the more recurring Zelda characters
++ Got starring roles in a few games
+ Fairly easy to design a moveset for

+/- Flamboyant style and personality would make him a fun/irritating character, depending on who you ask
+/- Wind Waker style is represented, so he would fit in... not really a plus so much as a lack of negative there.

- - Hated in the US
- - He was just as important in Brawl days, but Sakurai evidently would've passed him over for the clonish Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik
- His starring roles weren't exactly blockbusters
- Hasn't been seen in the main series for a few years
- A lot of the obvious ideas for his moveset involve moves we've seen elsewhere (balloons, bombs)

Ghirahim chances: 6%
He's one of the more likely Zelda characters, but I just don't think a Zelda newcomer is likely. I think Ghirahim is the most likely now that Toon Zelda and Tetra have to split their chances, with Tingle, Vaati and Impa bringing up the rear.

Ghirahim want: 60%
I wouldn't mind seeing him.

Tingle chances: 2%
Overall, Tingle has both more pluses and more negatives. Ultimately, I don't think Sakurai would want such a divisive character, so an AT or stage element is likely where Tingle will stay.

Tingle want: 45%
I'd rather see some other Zelda characters, but I'd be ok with seeing him, I guess.

Predictions:
Toon Zelda - 13%
Tetra - 20%
Impa - 1.2%
Diddy is gonna boost her...

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Tingle Chance: 25%
Tingle Want: 0%

Tingle's apparently quite popular in Japan, hence why he got his own game series, and he survived the list of assist trophies deconfirmed, so he has a chance, despite the fact he hasn't been very relevant a while. That being said, I think there are a lot more deserving Zelda characters than Tingle. Tingle's just way too... weird. I just don't understand the appeal of him.

Ghirahim Chance: 35%
Ghirahim Want 60%

I'd say Ghirahim's one of the most likely Zelda newcomers, being a decently popular Zelda villain from a recent game. His moveset would be interesting with his mix of magic, swords, and his ridiculous tongue. Overall, I'm mostly neutral on his inclusion, but I do think it would be cool if he were in.

 

[Sid-cada]

Tingle

Chance - 30% - Possible, but mostly still expecting him as an Assist Trophy.

Want - 20% - My first impressions of this guy weren't exactly the nicest. I mean, you free him for a crime that he actually committed, then supposed to treat him like an ally? That's... awkward. Yeah, rather he not be in.


Ghirahim

Chance - 9% - Yeah, might be possible, but I won't put much faith into a character that probably is just a one-shot.

Want - 20% - Might be cool, but I'd rather have a Character from the toon universe.


Predictions

Tetra - 19.25% - Maybe an increase due to no swapping characters?

Impa - 6.35% - Sheik solo? Yeah, she's doomed.

Toon Zelda - 2.45%- We haven't even rated her solo before. That's how unlikely she is.

 

[Overtaken]

I accidentally double posted

"Oops..."

 

[Burigu]

Let's start about this whole 0% thing, honestly I don't like the idea, people must be free to give any score that they think a character deserve, WHY start this precedent? then people will say that for really popular characters like Ridley people can't give them a score under 70% "because he is so important to deserve something lower" so I say NO to this limit, this is not even a HARD FACT GAME, so if anyone fell like a character deserve a 0% it's just an opinion, putting a limit will hurt THIS GAME because that is what we have here a FUN PREDICTION FACTS AND BIAS GAME, results with a "limit" won't give us the REAL perception of people EVEN if it's only 1% diference and that's not how statistic work.

That being said let's rate these "guys"

Tingle:
Chance: 20% he is popular in Japan but aparently lots of people hate him everywhere
Want: 0% I don't like him so I don't care if he is in the bottom with joke characters, because that is my personal preference, that doesn't negate this character importance to the zelda franchise.


Ghirahim
Chance: 35% he will never be in and Ganondorf out so I only see him if Ganondorf is revealed and zelda still gets another rep
Want: 55% he is cool but I prefer the more iconic characters he will make an interesting choice

 

[Arcanir]

Tingle
Chances: 6%
Well, on the one hand he's a notable character from Zelda, popular in Japan, and did get a spinoff series. However, he does have a very notable hatebase that Nintendo has noticed, and based on what's been researched his request volume isn't that high in Japan to begin with either. So there are some very strong barriers the character has to break through, and for him I think they do hold him back quite a bit.

Want: 5%
I don't have that much interest in him either in the core series or as a Smash character.

Ghirahim
Chances: 5%
Ghirahim as of this point, the only thing going for him is that he's a very popular character from Skyward Sword. Zelda has not used him at all past Skyward Sword and Nintendo has shown no interest in pushing the character. So right now he's just a popular one-shot character in the franchise, which makes it harder for him to stand out.

Want: 60%
He would be a unique choice though.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Let's start about this whole 0% thing, honestly I don't like the idea, people must be free to give any score that they think a character deserve, WHY start this precedent? then people will say that for really popular characters like Ridley people can't give them a score under 70% "because he is so important to deserve something lower" so I say NO to this limit, this is not even a HARD FACT GAME, so if anyone fell like a character deserve a 0% it's just an opinion, putting a limit will hurt THIS GAME because that is what we have here a FUN PREDICTION FACTS AND BIAS GAME, results with a "limit" won't give us the REAL perception of people EVEN if it's only 1% diference and that's not how statistic work.

Surely though for the bias we have the want score? You can give all the 0%'s you like to that if you hate the character. I know a 0% there isn't against the rules.

I think the issue is 0% chance, which unless a character is deconfirmed seems to be jumping the gun. Tingle in this instance is a rather prominent character in The Legend of Zelda so even if he's unlikely he's still got more chance than 0% of getting in.

In this case it seems to have stemmed from giving Athena Cykes(a character with seemingly no chance at all; 3rd party, secondary character from a game series not related to the company one that got in(Megaman) and overall relatively obscure in the grand scheme of things) more of a chance than Tingle, who is a reoccurring character from the third biggest Nintendo series, a series which has all the main characters out the way and has his own sub series going for him...

...well I can kinda see why that's questionable. I'm sure you can too when it's referring to chance and not want.

 

[Hot Uncle Sparky]

Tingle
Chances: 5%
Sakurai is definitely aware of Tingle's reputation in outside of Japan, he isn't even showing up in the Zelda games anymore because of it.

Want: 90%
I would main him

Ghirahim
Chances: 10%
A one-shot villain doesn't make that big of an impact on the series.

Want: 0%
Don't like him, don't like the game he's in.

 

[Burigu]

Surely though for the bias we have the want score? You can give all the 0%'s you like to that if you hate the character. I know a 0% there isn't against the rules.

I think the issue is 0% chance, which unless a character is deconfirmed seems to be jumping the gun. Tingle in this instance is a rather prominent character in The Legend of Zelda so even if he's unlikely he's still got more chance than 0% of getting in.

In this case it seems to have stemmed from giving Athena Cykes(a character with seemingly no chance at all; 3rd party, secondary character from a game series not related to the company one that got in(Megaman) and overall relatively obscure in the grand scheme of things) more of a chance than Tingle, who is a reoccurring character from the third biggest Nintendo series, a series which has all the main characters out the way and has his own sub series going for him...

...well I can kinda see why that's questionable. I'm sure you can too when it's referring to chance and not want.

I see your point, it is just a bit "unfair" to limit people, when everybody interprete "evidence" in diferent ways, for some a character is so referenced that is "ALMOST IN" for others the people that give them an ALMOST IN are overthinking and overanalysing so they give the character a diferent chance, this is a game to have fun with predictions, if a character is really likely said character will have a high chance regardless of some troll or a minority perception, for Tingle it doesn't really matter if his chance is really low that don't make him more or less likely it's just the comunity perception, people don't need to take this game to seriously it's still a good sign of how the comunity likes or hates a character.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Surely though for the bias we have the want score? You can give all the 0%'s you like to that if you hate the character. I know a 0% there isn't against the rules.

I think the issue is 0% chance, which unless a character is deconfirmed seems to be jumping the gun. Tingle in this instance is a rather prominent character in The Legend of Zelda so even if he's unlikely he's still got more chance than 0% of getting in.

In this case it seems to have stemmed from giving Athena Cykes(a character with seemingly no chance at all; 3rd party, secondary character from a game series not related to the company one that got in(Megaman) and overall relatively obscure in the grand scheme of things) more of a chance than Tingle, who is a reoccurring character from the third biggest Nintendo series, a series which has all the main characters out the way and has his own sub series going for him...

...well I can kinda see why that's questionable. I'm sure you can too when it's referring to chance and not want.

We have never had a limit before and we have always had bias. I don't want things to change now (okay, I wish there was no bias, but let's face it. Bias will never leave.)

 

[Aqua Rock X]

TINGLE

Chance: 20% - It could happen.

Want: 0% - ...but I'd rather it not.

GHIRAHIM

Chance: 10% - He seems more like an AT to me.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Toon Zelda Prediction: 30%

Tetra Prediction: 14%

Impa Prediction: 1.3%

 

[Kenith]

Finally, the time has come to rate Ghirahim!
If I said the following ratings weren't biased, I would be lying.

Tingle:

Chance: 35%. I don't think he would be really unique, and he is actually quite hated, so much so that he was cut from the most recent Zelda games. Call me biased against him, but I can't see it happening.

Want: 2%. I would learn to live with it, but the fact still stands that he's one of three likely characters I would absolutely hate to see included as playable.

Ghirahim:

Chance: 45%. I think that the reveals of Greninja and Rosalina lean towards his favor because it shows the characters choices are indeed influenced by recency. Plus, there's a lot of Skyward Sword stuff in this game, as the creators of the game love it and it's artstyle.

Want: 100%. He is by far my most wanted character and I would give a limb to see him in. He would be so cool and unique from everyone else and I think it would be a great addition.

Toon Zelda prediction: 3%.
Tetra prediction: 10%.

 

[Leafeon523]

Captain Toad levels from SM3DW have been proven to be insanely popular and Nintendo are considering making a spinoff series based on them.
.

Can you send me a link to the source of this? I'd love to see a spinoff game about the captain toad levels on the eshop!

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Tingle:

Chance: 35% I give him this because of the fact he's apparently been in a lot of zelda games, plus he's starred in games of his own. I guess that gives him some merit...

Want: 1% He creeps me out, I'm sorry. Although he could probably be an interesting character to play as, I don't like Tingle.

Ghirahim:

Chance: 55% Before I explain, here's something I post in his support thread awhile back about the possibility of him appearing in another game:

I think he has a decent chance of reappearing, considering no one knows if he lived or not. Like what a lot of people have said already, for all we know he could of walked away and began to plot revenge. I'm not sure if this idea has been said or not, but I can imagine Ghirahim playing a role in the plot to a game. He could of been found in sword form by Ganon at one point and gain a new master in the process. That's just my thoughts anyway.

Anyhow, the point I'm trying to make is that despite his possible one-time appearance, Ghirahim has played a important role in Zelda. He, whether people like or not, set the series in motion. Because of him, Demise was resurrected, which resulted in the eventual birth of Ganondorf--the main antagonist, the villain with the triforce of power who has chased Zelda and Link through out time. If that doesn't mean something I don't know what does.

Also, if I remember correctly, Miyamoto did at one point say he did want Ghirahim to be a memorable character. Smash would be a perfect place to make people be aware of little old Debbie, no?

Want: 90% I love his personality and abilities. I don't think it would be that hard for Sakurai to make a move set for him either.

Ghirahim in all his fabulousness:

Spoiler

Predictions:

Tetra: 20%

Impa: 5%

Toon Zelda: 10%

 

[Deleted member]

Tingle

Chance: 5% - In all honesty, I don't see him as playable & surprised that people consider him likely. Sure he wasn't shown as an assist trophy but given that the Direct has pointed out that Melee stages are returning & Skull Kid isn't using the moon to crash the battle...I would imagine that the Great Bay stage is returning & that he'll be back again.

Also...hes not exactly that notable as many think. As andimidna pointed out, he is just pretty much an NPC & sometimes appears as a cameo. Now yes, he has a spin-off series but unfortunately, its not that big of a seller (Since people take sales into account on franchises that have a made up requirement for number of reps).

And since the next Tingle games after Rosy Rupeeland didn't come to Europe or outside of Japan...then something is wrong.

Want: 0% - I keep the "Americans hate Tingle" trope running.

Ghirahim

Chance: 45%

Hold it right there, don't lay a finger on your keyboard yet...I know what you're going to type. "But Tillie!!! He's a one-off villain in the worst-selling Zelda game!! He's just flavor of the month! He won't return in the next title!!"

Again, andimidna points out the so far, the 2 newcomers we have seen (Rosalina & Greninja) are not important, new, & recently became popular,

Rosalina got in over the people's picks like Toad (Possibly Bowser Jr too)
Greninja got in over the people's picks like Meowth.

Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if he was the newcomer despite what people say. Everyone thought a Mario & Pokemon newcomer wasn't likely...and look what we got.

Its also good to know that while Zelda characters usually don't get reused in the games, villains however do!

Skull Kid - Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, Twilight Princess
Vaati - 4 Swords, 4 Sword Adventures, Minish Cap
Twinrova (Koume and Kotake) - Ocarina of Time, Oracle of Seasons & Ages

I would even say Ganondorf: Ocarina of Time, Wind Waker, Twilight Princess

So I really doubt that Ghirahim will be the "One-time only" villain as people make him out to be, I'm certain he'll show up in 2 more Zelda games (Following the pattern above)

Want: 85% - I've grown fond of him & wouldn't mind seeing him in SSB4 or future Zelda titles, make it happen Sakurai!

 

[Kenith]

Tingle

Chance: 5% - In all honesty, I don't see him as playable & surprised that people consider him likely. Sure he wasn't shown as an assist trophy but given that the Direct has pointed out that Melee stages are returning & Skull Kid isn't using the moon to crash the battle...I would imagine that the Great Bay stage is returning & that he'll be back again.

Also...hes not exactly that notable as many think. As andimidna pointed out, he is just pretty much an NPC & sometimes appears as a cameo. Now yes, he has a spin-off series but unfortunately, its not that big of a seller (Since people take sales into account on franchises that have a made up requirement for number of reps).

And since the next Tingle games after Rosy Rupeeland didn't come to Europe or outside of Japan...then something is wrong.

Want: 0% - I keep the "Americans hate Tingle" trope running.

Ghirahim

Chance: 45%

Hold it right there, don't lay a finger on your keyboard yet...I know what you're going to type. "But Tillie!!! He's a one-off villain in the worst-selling Zelda game!! He's just flavor of the month! He won't return in the next title!!"

Again, andimidna points out the so far, the 2 newcomers we have seen (Rosalina & Greninja) are not important, new, & recently became popular,

Rosalina got in over the people's picks like Toad (Possibly Bowser Jr too)
Greninja got in over the people's picks like Meowth.

Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if he was the newcomer despite what people say. Everyone thought a Mario & Pokemon newcomer wasn't likely...and look what we got.

Its also good to know that while Zelda characters usually don't get reused in the games, villains however do!

Skull Kid - Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, Twilight Princess
Vaati - 4 Swords, 4 Sword Adventures, Minish Cap
Twinrova (Koume and Kotake) - Ocarina of Time, Oracle of Seasons & Ages

I would even say Ganondorf: Ocarina of Time, Wind Waker, Twilight Princess

So I really doubt that Ghirahim will be the "One-time only" villain as people make him out to be, I'm certain he'll show up in 2 more Zelda games (Following the pattern above)

Want: 85% - I've grown fond of him & wouldn't mind seeing him in SSB4 or future Zelda titles, make it happen Sakurai!

Thank you, someone that acknowledges the recurring villains argument!
Did you come to that on your own, or?

 

[Deleted member]

Thank you, someone that acknowledges the recurring villains argument!
Did you come to that on your own, or?

Nah, I saw your post in the Official Character Discussion thread, looked it up on the Zelda wiki...and you're right.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I don't really expect a Zelda newcomer this time around.

Tingle chance - 15%

His chance isn't negligible but his controversial nature is very damaging. I see him returning as an assist.

Tingle want - 0%

No interest.

Ghirahim chance - 10%

At one point I rode the hype train that was "Ghirahim for smash" but now I see him as this smash's Midna. A popular but once off throw away character. Has a decent chance of being an assist I think.

Ghirahim want - 50%

I like the character but I'm not desperate to see him playable. Either way I'd be happy.

 

[andimidna]

If all of those villains can be "revived" or "reincarnated"
I don't understand why people say Ghirahim can't reappear.

Remember what Aonuma said about Midna?
Something like...
"Given how Twilight Princess ended, she may never appear in another Zelda game, however, if enough fans are requesting it, how could we not?"

I interpret this as: "It doesn't matter if this character returning doesn't make sense, we can do what we want and are willing to do what the fans want"

I don't understand why people cast him off as a one-off, especially with Hyrule Warriors most likely coming this Winter.
And if being in Hyrule Warriors doesn't count as an appearance, then Waluigi has never been in any game ever.
Also, Sheik got in off basically the same merits.
I can't help but think popularity is more significant than recurrence this time around.
Even the Zelda assists are now focused on popular, unimportant characters being Midna and Skull Kid.
If the assists were Impa and Classic Ganon I'd be seriously considering Tingle, and if we'd seen a lot of content from a game he's in.
MM has Skull Kid's assist, OoA has nothing, WW has Toon Link, FSA has nothing, MC has nothing. So, not much.
I just don't see anything pointing to him, and a lot pointing to Ghirahim.
I may be interpreting evidence wrong, but that's how I see things...

 

[Burigu]

If all of those villains can be "revived" or "reincarnated"
I don't understand why people say Ghirahim can't reappear.

Remember what Aonuma said about Midna?
Something like...
"Given how Twilight Princess ended, she may never appear in another Zelda game, however, if enough fans are requesting it, how could we not?"

I interpret this as: "It doesn't matter if this character returning doesn't make sense, we can do what we want and are willing to do what the fans want"

I don't understand why people cast him off as a one-off, especially with Hyrule Warriors most likely coming this Winter.
And if being in Hyrule Warriors doesn't count as an appearance, then Waluigi has never been in any game ever.
Also, Sheik got in off basically the same merits.
I can't help but think popularity is more significant than recurrence this time around.
Even the Zelda assists are now focused on popular, unimportant characters being Midna and Skull Kid.
If the assists were Impa and Classic Ganon I'd be seriously considering Tingle, and if we'd seen a lot of content from a game he's in.
MM has Skull Kid's assist, OoA has nothing, WW has Toon Link, FSA has nothing, MC has nothing. So, not much.
I just don't see anything pointing to him, and a lot pointing to Ghirahim.
I may be interpreting evidence wrong, but that's how I see things...

That Waluigi comment is priceless it is almost philosophical

 

[a smart guy]

Tingle????
Chance: 10% While he has some games, his hate base destroys him.
Want: 0% Yuck, just yuck.

Ghirahim: Another Long Tongue
Chance: 25% He's only been in one game. He might have good moveset potential and charisma, but it's only been one game. Then again, Greninja has only been in one game, so I suppose it could happen.
Want: 50% I'm indifferent to him... I like him as a character, but I don't think he's enough of an all-star for Smash.

Okay, I know I'm not supposed to talk about other characters, but I couldn't pass up this opportunity. We seriously needed to rerate Chibi-Robo; Photo Finder has now been localized, which greatly raises his chances. For example, Groose, you've raised his chance scores by 20% since the last time you rated him. I understand that we are not taking nominations now, but I would highly urge all of you to nominate him as soon as nominations come back. I'll shut up now, but please keep him in mind.

 

[SmasherMaster]

Tingle: Old Peter Pan

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%
He has a chance.

Ghirahim: Miley Cyrus' Grandfather
Chance: 15%
Want: 50%
I'm indifferent. The Skyward Sword references and both and both help him.

Predictions:
Tetra: 10%
Toon Zelda: 5%
Impa: 2.5%

 

[Karafuru]

Tingle
-Chance: 10%
He is an iconic character, but he isn't well liked and doesn't scream to be a fighter.
-Want: 0%
I never really liked Tingle. If it wasn't necessary to beat the game, I would have never freed him in Wind Waker.

Ghirahim
-Chance: 24%
Being a one time character didn't prevent Sheik's comeback in Brawl. He is quite popular as well.
-Want: 60%
One of my preferred Zelda newcomers, but not my favorite one.

Predictions:
-Tetra: 25%
-Toon Zelda: 5%
-Impa: 5%

 

[Xenigma]

Its also good to know that while Zelda characters usually don't get reused in the games, villains however do!

Skull Kid - Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, Twilight Princess
Vaati - 4 Swords, 4 Sword Adventures, Minish Cap
Twinrova (Koume and Kotake) - Ocarina of Time, Oracle of Seasons & Ages

I would even say Ganondorf: Ocarina of Time, Wind Waker, Twilight Princess

So I really doubt that Ghirahim will be the "One-time only" villain as people make him out to be, I'm certain he'll show up in 2 more Zelda games (Following the pattern above)

The great problem is that there isn't a consistent pattern of Zelda villains being re-used, at least not as primary antagonists. Skull Kid is only ever really a villain in Majora's Mask when he's the unwitting pawn of the mask; the true recurring antagonists are Ganon, Ganondorf, and Vaati, with Twinrova being notable in at least two games but not really as primary antagonists. Depending on how you count Ganon/Ganondorf, that's a pretty small number of recurring villains. Then there's these notable antagonists who appeared once:

Agahnim
Link's Awakening's Nightmares
Majora
Veran
General Onox
Zant
Bellum
Chancellor Cole
Malladus
Ghirahim
Demise

Plus there's Hilda and Yuga from the most recent Zelda, though I suppose it's worth giving them the benefit of the doubt since they're so new despite certainly appearing to be one-offs. That's a lot of villains who were really only notable for one game, and generally only appearing in said games. Maybe some of these characters could be brought back given enough popularity, like Ghirahim, but so far that hasn't proven the case. Now, a villain who was technically a one-off made it into Smash with Ganondorf, but he was also an incarnation of the series's main villain, was extremely popular, and hailed from one of the most well regarded video games ever made, plus he came back not long after Melee in Wind Waker. Is Ghirahim comparable? I don't think that he is, at least not yet.

 

[Holder of the Heel]

Talk of Ghirahim? Guess I should post for once then! But first... Tingle.

Tingle's Chances: 5%

The only reason I really give him any is because I know Sakurai loves proving his fans wrong and show them how close-minded their views of likely and fitting are. But adopting our notions of what is probable, getting a new Zelda character at all seems difficult enough on its own, and from that perspective it'd certainly be hard to shake off the notion that any newcomer would have to be quite special to be included among the likes of Link, Zelda, and Ganon (Toon and Sheik as extensions of the former two). There aren't many options to choose from, and none are very stellar. Choices that were popular in the pre-Brawl days, Midna and Skull Kid, were given to us already as confirmed Assist Trophies, and they earned their popularity from likability and potential alone.

Vaati is one that is still safe and carries along with him a greater repertoire of appearances, albeit only slightly, but carrying a good deal of potential (not as much likability though, I'm going to allow myself to guess). Then we come to the one known as Tingle. Plenty of appearances, even his own series, although it's spin-off territory. The potential seems a bit lacking compared to the like of Vaati, and even comes up short compared to the slain Twilight Princess and the puppet of Majora. I'm ever the believer of Sakurai's talent to make these SSB4 character's creative and appealing considering what we've seen thus far, so there's no doubt some way he could imagine a way to implement him in a way that is easily acceptable, but this applies to the others all the same, nay, all the more, and thus only works as a way to justify the potential to be enjoyable and nothing more. It in know way shows him to be a "logical" choice over others on such a basis, unless Sakurai's unique understanding, being behind the development, gives him a vision beyond any precedent I can conjure or anyone I've seen speak here.

And finally, returning to something I've mentioned before: likability. This treks into even greater subjectivity, so I can only speculate on the general opinion of those around me and also contribute my own opinion, of which seems to be aligned with what most people go with here on Smashboards. That is to say, I believe him to be uninteresting. I've never played his games, which definitely contributes, but insofar as he is a part of the mainline of Zelda games, his presence in the Zelda games, while consistent, are either not notable or, when they are, it's rather unwelcome (I'm looking at you ****ing Wind Waker, a stain on an otherwise gorgeous game (I partially kid, I don't mean to exaggerate its annoyance)). This all leads roughly to...

Want: 5%

Putting it this way makes it seem as though my basis for wanting character is comparable to how possible they are, but I'd like to make crystal clear that this is simply not the case.

Ghirahim's chances: 15%

The character I did not mention up above as possible candidates, and the one that I'd guess would make it in if anyone at all (excluding Toon Zelda & Sheik/Tetra, however bringing that in makes this business of pseudo-prediction even more pointless and presumptuous than it already is to me). As far as potential goes, in my view, he reigns supreme Demon Moveset Lord. He's got magic like Vaati, which you can be as original with that as you wish, or you can do what I did and completely flat-out rip his moves from Skyward Sword. Seriously, fighting him was what sparked the idea of him being a playable character in Smash for me, his attacks felt like they'd not only translate well into it but they'd also be very fresh compared to the rest of cast. Aside some creative liberties I took with the standard attacks, I translated everything into a set with seriously no effort at all (the set I made in my support thread is genuinely lazy, which is amusing because most people rather found it to be to their liking). The idea clicked from the battles as a perfect idea when I thought about how memorable and enjoyable his character was to me on a personality level, although this is certainly a subject of debate, but certainly not to the degree of Tingle (fabulousness gone wrong), and Vaati doesn't have one to discuss to begin with. This likability, this distinction in style and expression, is all the more important to me ever since I saw how vibrant and cartoony some of the pictures we've seen of the characters. Whether he's a character or not, he needs to be involved in some sort of glorious HD fashion in my opinion. It'd be a wasted opportunity otherwise.

Unfortunately, despite my high praises, there's a good chance indeed that we may never see him again, although I still stand by my belief that he may very well appear once more in a couple different ways, which makes me want to look into what Miyamoto said about wanting him to be remembered a lot more than what was probably intended. Granted, a lack of appearances doesn't seal someone's fate, particularly in view of Sakurai's antics, but it's a cause of concern nonetheless and therefore I shall not put his probability high, especially again in relation to the fact that the other characters represented in the franchise are the three most important and returning characters of the series. The only point that can be given for him in regards to his appearance is that it's, well, recent, and thoroughly appeared in all his antagonistic glory in the latest Zelda game that will be receiving item and stage attention in this latest iteration of Smash Bros. All of this being said, I'll leave the big number for my desire.

Want: 90%

Not at 100% purely for the fact that I understand why people might not entirely want him in and mostly due to my ever-growing complacency regarding who is included in the new games given that I'm quite content with what we've gotten already and feel confident for what's to come in the future no matter what.

 

[Autumn ♫]

the true recurring protagonists are Ganon, Ganondorf, and Vaati

Well, that's news to me. I guess Link and Zelda are actually the thre antagonist, aren't they?

 

[andimidna]

The great problem is that there isn't a consistent pattern of Zelda villains being re-used, at least not as primary antagonists. Skull Kid is only ever really a villain in Majora's Mask when he's the unwitting pawn of the mask; the true recurring protagonists are Ganon, Ganondorf, and Vaati, with Twinrova being notable in at least two games but not really as primary antagonists. Depending on how you count Ganon/Ganondorf, that's a pretty small number of recurring villains. Then there's these notable antagonists who appeared once:

Agahnim
Link's Awakening's Nightmares
Majora
Veran
General Onox
Zant
Bellum
Chancellor Cole
Malladus
Ghirahim
Demise

Plus there's Hilda and Yuga from the most recent Zelda, though I suppose it's worth giving them the benefit of the doubt since they're so new despite certainly appearing to be one-offs. That's a lot of villains who were really only notable for one game, and generally only appearing in said games. Maybe some of these characters could be brought back given enough popularity, like Ghirahim, but so far that hasn't proven the case. Now, a villain who was technically a one-off made it into Smash with Ganondorf, but he was also an incarnation of the series's main villain, was extremely popular, and hailed from one of the most well regarded video games ever made. Is Ghirahim comparable? I don't think that he is, at least not yet.

Chancellor Cole, Bellum, Malladus, Ghirahim, Demise, and Yuga are all too new to know where they'll stand.

Wasn't Agahnim just an alter ego of Ganon? No? Ok, well I'm pretty sure he was in Link's Awakening and Oracles of Ages as a boss along with being the final boss of A Link To The Past.

Yea, I don't think Nightmare's coming back.
It was a bad idea for a villain and I'm glad they didn't try to do it again...

Majora was technically in A Link Between Worlds

Veran and Onox are villains that don't team up, but are a pair. It's an odd situation.
But unless the Zelda team's ever going to release 2 side-by-side mirrored games like Ages and Seasons, I really don't think this will happen. Also, Capcom made them and Capcom's Zeldas usually aren't popular, and Nintendo doesn't usually care for the characters they make.
They did get homage through Midna's and Zant's designs/models though.

There's no demand for any of these characters to return.

And then there's Zant, who I also think is too new to judge.
Him being in Skyward Sword would go against canon, he didn't exist yet.
Same with being in the Adult Timeline randomly in a toon game full of colors and no Twili.
He hasn't had a chance yet.

And all those others, same thing.
Other than the 2006 and 2007... the rest appeared 2009 and after and the Zelda series doesn't whip out games like Mario.
People argue that Rosalina has become important, but if she was a Zelda character, she probably would have only been in her debut game.
There aren't all these spinoffs Zelda characters can appear in (except for the one coming up with Link as the only revealed character)
And no recent major Zelda has received a sequel with all of the same characters just 3 years after the 1st.

 

[Groose]

@ Groose , this is a case that I would strongly recommend leaving out any 0% chance ratings in order to avoid biased ratings, considering how disliked a character Tingle is. I don't think it's justified giving a character with such an undeniably impressive resume a flat zero; placing him among the likes of Athena Cykes and Reggie.

As much as I'd like to do that, I won't do that. If people think having a hatebase is the end of all of his chances, then so be it; if he is ever confirmed, it will be an interesting footnote in our histories.

Let me go check out the Uniqueness Tier List thread.
I want to see how they were both rated and why.

I see you pulling Blue's "uniqueness" tier out quite a bit, but I don't think you're using it in quite the right way. It is an estimate of how unique the community thinks a character could be, not how unique a character would actually be. Sakurai could decide to take one of our "most unique" characters and go, "this guy has a similar body shape to that other dude; they do completely different stuff, but I'm still making him a clone," or he could give a character we deem non-unique an incredibly new and fresh gimmick. I'm sure Ganondorf would have scored at least moderately high on that list (OMG an evil wizard that can transform into a monster), yet he's the least unique character in the game; I doubt Rosalina would have done well, but she's the most unique character out there. It's sort of like this game; we rate how likely we think characters are, but in reality we have a very, very high chance of being wrong.

and, if you are a Tingle person...

...oh, well. Guess I have to leave. I hereby appoint @Hades the Magnificent as the new head of RTC. Smell you guys later!

But let's face it. Bias will never leave.

No defeatist attitudes. Although I concede that we will never be able to transcend community bias (the environment in which we are a product of), we must be able to leave our personal biases at the door. I am trying to do this as best I can; I encourage everyone to do the same.

Well, that's news to me. I guess Link and Zelda are actually the thre antagonist, aren't they?

I love Ganondorf, and I'd be willing to write an entire essay on why his character if need be. His is a really sad story, and while he definitely becomes the embodiment of evil... he wasn't always the bad guy. Zelda's family certainly isn't innocent, I'll tell you that much.

Groose's April Zelda Chart
Total Chance: 49%
Ghirahim: 15% chance (100% want)
Tingle: 10% chance (100% want)
Tetra: 7.5% chance (33% want)
Toon Zelda: 7.5% chance (0% want)
Vaati: 5% chance (10% want)
Ganon: 3% chance (100% want)
Impa: 1% chance (10% want)
Alfonzo: 0% chance (100% want)

Let me start off by getting one thing off of my chest: the Direct has not shaken my odds of receiving a Zelda newcomer. All of you are using the confirmation that Sheik will be have her own slot as proof that the Zelda series has too many characters, but I don't think this makes any sense at all. Sheik was in the game since Melee, and while she was never her own slot on the roster, she still was her own moveset; she still required roughly the same amount of work; she still was seen as a different character by Sakurai. Sheik is not taking the place of a Zelda newcomer.

Something I view as highly interesting is the sheer amount of Zelda items and other content that we're getting. Some are taking it as a sign that Sakurai is trying to fill up the game with Zelda content to apologize for not adding a character; others take it as proof that Zelda is being taken more seriously and will definitely receive a newcomer. As for me, I wouldn't be surprised if either is the case, just as I wouldn't really be surprised if Zelda got a new character or didn't get a new character. Overall, I lean a tad towards no character; even so, I really could see it happening.

Ghirahim: 15%
I'll start today off by explaining just why I view Ghirahim as the most likely Zelda newcomer. Ghirahim is the candidate who was the freshest choice when the roster was being decided; his popularity was at a great high, and he had to at least cross Sakurai's mind when he was considering what to add to this game. Additionally, he has a very obvious moveset, so that makes it even more likely that he was considered in the context of a playable character.

What his opponents often use against him is his recency and his one-off nature. I'm sure that his "recency" is not a problem after looking at some of the other newcomers we've gotten so far; I'd actually argue that it is in his favor because he was the big thing just when the roster was being decided. I'd also call it far too soon to call him doomed to a one-off position; unlike many Zelda villains (Cole, Onox, Veran, Bellum, Agahnim), he's actually popular and unlike other popular Zelda characters (Midna, Groose), his story hadn't really ended at the end of his game. I would actually be surprised if we go three more Zelda games in a row without seeing him in some form.

Ghirahim Want: 100%
I'm all for it. I love Ganondorf (as you can see from earlier in my post), and I love how Ghirahim was just the complete "anti-Ganon." Ganon dresses in a suit of armor, has an ambition that surpasses all, goes for the cunning and composed archetype, relies on overpowering his opponents, and uses a predominantly dark color scheme. Ghirahim dresses in a skin-tight suit, has a great loyalty with no personal ambition, goes for the unstable and unpredictable archetype, relies of outspending and outdueling his opponents, and uses a predominantly light color scheme. I'd want him in Smash just to put him in a fight against Ganondorf, and he's definitely a character I'd consider maining. Still, there is another Zelda character I'd like just as much, if not more...

Tingle: 10%
Tingle is, bar Toon Zelda or Beast Ganon, the biggest name left by far in the Zelda franchise. He has pretty major roles in three Zelda titles (Four Swords Adventures, Majora's Mask, and Wind Waker), and he has cameos in a bunch of other titles (the statue in ST, the hookshot game manager in TP, and the doll in SS all come to mind). Heck, he even has his own small collection of games! Finally, Japan really likes him.

...while that may seem to put him leagues above Ghirahim, he does have some major weaknesses. He's not very well liked in America, and his appearances in the last couple of Zelda games have really leveled off. Additionally, he has his traditional Smash cameo roles to overcome; he's in danger of both Great Bay and an AT. I'd say Tingle has a pretty good shot despite these things, but they do prevent him from being anywhere near likely. Which is a shame...
Tingle Want: 100%
...because I'm a big Tingle fan. To quote andimidna,

Like most Zelda fans, I love Tingle.

...but in all seriousness, I never understood the hate. I played the Wind Waker and Majora's Mask before I knew how hated Tingle was, and the hate actually surprised me. I always thought he was a strange, endearing character that really felt symbolic of a large part of what Zelda does; it always has a strange element to it, if not in the main adventure. It's created a bunch of out-there characters, and I think Tingle is the cream of the crop.

DAY OVER

RETURN OF THAT ONE ZELDA CHARACTER THAT WE DIDN'T TALK ABOUT
​

 

[Xenigma]

Well, that's news to me. I guess Link and Zelda are actually the thre antagonist, aren't they?

Boy I'm making a lot of random mistakes today.

 

[Groose]

Tingle
17.23% chance (was 13.31%)
24.39% want (was 23.31%)
Tingle, tingle, kooloo-limpah! Become... LIKABLE! Actually, nothing could make Tingle likable and his want score remains pitiful. That is the magic joke that Groose made himself, don't steal it! From a chance perspective, he saw his score increase, but it was not enough to prevent getting overtaken by our next character...

Ghirahim
25.04% chance (was 9.86%)
53.91% want (was 33.76%)
Ghirahim used to be a character that this board kicked aside; he was unexpected, unwanted! Do you have any idea how that made him feel insider? Furious. Outraged! SICK WITH ANGER! So he did some plotting and some scheming, and WHAM! From a single digit chance score to a likelihood of greater than a quarter; from a want score of just over a third to being wanted by more than half of the voters. It looks like his opponents have met their inevitable demise!

Today we're going to be finishing up with Zelda for awhile. Before the Direct, our highest rated Zelda character (and one of our highest rated characters overall) was a Toon Zelda and Tetra transformation. With that out of the way, all we can do now is rate each character individually. In addition to that, Sheik was confirmed to return; how does this impact the other Sheikah that makes frequent appearances in the Zelda games? Please rate Toon Zelda, Impa, and Tetra for today. Tomorrow we'll be rating a pair of newcomers that were both given new life by the Direct: Black Shadow and Chorus Men; please predict how they'll do. Yes, the day is coming when we rate the Chorus Men. Ooooh, man!

 

[andimidna]

OLD SCORES
45. Ghirahim - 9.86% chance
69. Ghirahim - 33.76% want

NEW SCORES
15. Ghirahim - 25.04% chance
15. Ghirahim - 53.91% want

15 in both rankings?!?
All I have to say is: THESE NEW SCORES ARE FABULOUS!

 

[DarkStarStorm]

Tingle chance: 0.0000% He has been deconfirmed as a playable character therefore he is not a playable character.
Tingle want: 0% There are many other characters I'd rather have in Smash 4. Such as:
Ghirahim chance: 95% Unlike Zant, he never died and it is very possible for him to reappear in a new Zelda game. As such it would behoove Nintendo to add him in to advertise the next Zelda game. But then it's Nintendo, they may not do the logical thing.
Ghirahim want: 100% He would be Marth with a projectile and a teleport, who doesn't want that?!

 

[LoneKonWolf]

now before I give my rateings, i'm going to give out a little bit of my thinking.
the main reason why we have seen a Zelda newcomer is because we had a fifth spot available, which we thought Mario and pokemon would also get a fifth spot, and seeing Mario get one only proved that further so a fifth spot seem practically a given.
but now after the direct things shook up a little, mainly because our theoretical fifth spot got taken, by sheik who we all thought would still be with Zelda. and since ganondorf is a garneted. we are rating for a sixth spot. something that seems likely only for Pokémon, not even Mario is seen likely to be given a 6th spot, too me that practically destroys all Zelda characters chances, the hope for a Zelda character is practically lined with that of the chances of mario getting another spot.
I view the Mario series having 7.50% chance of gaining a second newcomer, i'll be giving each Zelda newcomer accordingly there chances from highest to lowest.
Tetra - 3.50%
tetra has the biggest chance mainly because she's pseudo clone material (in other words a "fake" clone) tetra can be seen given similar specials that Zelda has and even the same final smash (i'll image an outbreak would happen though) but yet still have enough (mainly in the a moves) to be given an entire different approach, and that is if we were talking about them running out of time, they could make her, her own unique character if they wanted, there are multiple paths they could take, which is how I view her with the biggest (impossible til more information) shot
want - 50%
my want has decreased mainly because of the fact a Zelda newcomer is unlikely, but i'm still basically neutral
Toon Zelda - 1.50%
basically repeat what I said above but remove the multiple paths and unique character parts, that severely hinges her that they would rather focus on more unique gameplay, but clone material does help being number two on the chart
want - 10%
I see very little interest
Tingle - 1.00%
surviving the assist trophy massacre doesn't help when your suspected to be going in another pit. though he does have his own games series and made prominent appearances through out Zelda games, along with having a semi important and a very important part in two games. that just basically what puts him up others
want - 50%
neutral always have been
Ghirahim - 1.00%
the only noticeable thing he has is popularity, he may have been the villain in the most recent popular Zelda game, but so was zant, he was the boss of the last Zelda game, and skull kid was also an popular Zelda boss, that also fell flat in assist trophy status. and minda was a very popular character during brawl time, shared the same fate as skull kid. Zelda characters have mostly been one offs, and those that are popular one offs get subjected to assist trophies and maybe just even smaller roles. Rosalina and greninja may prove that popular newer characters can be in, but Rosalina has spread to game to game and even became playable in the most recent game, where she kept coming back and becoming a mainstay in the Mario roster, greninja will most likely become playable in every pokemon game so forth as every other starter before it has come. ghirahim, based on past events will most likely die off and become forgotten in the bundle of Zelda characters that they have, I expect him to be an assist trophy or an trophy and nothing more
want - 85%
I've found ghirahim to be an enjoyable character, I would've liked his inclusion
Vaati - 0.50%
vaati used to be a better competitor but now time has been bad for him, I imagine that not very many people know about him in the public eye, he's fading like other Zelda villains not named ganon/ganondorf, if they were going to put a character up it would be someone that people know and would get excited or at least interested in, more people would be confused than glad by his inclusion, the only reason he's not at the bottom is because unlike others he's not similar to other characters and has appeared multiple times as a villain, something only Gannon says he can do
want - 50%
neutral
Impa - 0%
first off, anyone thinking sheik would get replaced is not exactly the best of logic, sheik would return regardless, her chances involved more of being a peusdo/semi clone of sheik, though with sheik taking a spot, there seems to be no need of an individual ninja, it would be an unnecessary waste and one I can be positive that her chances are done now
want - 60%
unlike others I never really found impa to be a problem, I wouldn't have mind and saw a little interest, though I do have others I cared more for

also just in case anyone asks why I listed them all, its mainly because it was easier for me to do my rating this way

bumping this up, along with bolding and underling todays characters

 

[Deleted member]

Toon Zelda

Chance: 10%

-- Notice that Toon Link (whom I'm sure was included solely to promote The Wind Waker HD) happens to be the only clone character...
+ ...aside from the possibilities of Falco, Wolf, and Lucas.
-- If Toon Zelda were going to be playable, then Twilight Princess Zelda probably wouldn't have been given the Phantom from Spirit Tracks.

Want: 0%

Maybe if transformations were kept, I would have rated this higher. Without being able to change into Tetra, she has nothing unique to offer.


Impa

Chance: 10%

-- Notice that Toon Link (whom I'm sure was included solely to promote The Wind Waker HD) happens to be the only clone character...
+ ...aside from the possibilities of Falco, Wolf, and Lucas.
+ They could use old Impa and be creative with her moveset, but that seems unlikely

Want (Young Impa): 0%

We already have Sheik. I don't want a clone-fest.

Want (Old Impa): 50%

I'm indifferent.


Tetra

Chance: 20%

While she is not a clone, Sakurai is probably already satisfied with Toon Link as a Wind Waker representative. However, both her and Toon Zelda have data stored on the Brawl disc, so you never know.

Want: 60%

Smash could use a pirate character.

 

[Xenigma]

Toon Zelda - 5%
A while back when we last rated the now disconfirmed Toon Zelda/Tetra combo, I brought up the idea that Zelda having a Phantom in her moveset indicated Toon Zelda was in development at some point. After all, Phantoms are a Toon Zelda thing, so why bother adding them to regular Zelda unless they were adding them to a Toon Zelda clone? Now that transform characters are out, Toon Zelda as a concept becomes much less compelling, but that little tidbit remains: how did the Phantom sneak in as Zelda's new down-b? Maybe it was just the easy answer, but I think the possibility of it being a byproduct of Toon Zelda being developed, not to mention Toon Zelda being a forbidden seven character, is a plausible enough reason to give TZ at least a little credit. That said, I'd much more expect her to have been cut along with transforms, so a low chance it is.
Want - 25% - With transforms out, having Toon Zelda over Tetra or someone else more unique would be quite disappointing, but I'm enough of a fan of the character to not dislike the idea too much.

Tetra - 25%
Now that transforms are out and we can consider characters like Toon Zelda and Tetra on their own individual merits, I feel confident saying that Tetra is now the new top choice for a Zelda newcomer. Granted, that's still not a terribly great chance (I'm giving a coin-flip total between plausibles Tetra, TZ, Ghirahim, Ganon, and Tingle), but she's in a good spot. She's popular, she's recurring in a series where that is somewhat unusual, she's a variant of a core-three Zelda character (the only kind we've ever gotten in Smash), she's recent/relevant thanks to Wind Waker HD, and she has plenty of potential to be unique both as a magic wielder and as a pirate, a popular trope unexplored in Smash. Honestly, her biggest remaining fault is simply that Zelda doesn't look likely to get a newcomer now that Sheik pushes them up to five character slots, and Zelda isn't exactly devoid of viable Smash competition. I'm not counting on her appearing in Smash, but if a Zelda newcomer is in our future, I think she's the most likely choice.
Want - 100% - A favorite of mine, and while I'm a bit sad she wouldn't be transforming into Toon Zelda, having only one moveset to worry about is hardly a bad thing.

Impa - 0%
Poor Impa. Her one marginal chance at Smash relied on Sheik somehow being cut, and with that possibility now gone, it's difficult to envision why Sakurai would want to bother with what would effectively be a second Sheik. Sure, she could be made different, she's got enough of a power set to accomplish that much if they really wanted to, but it's a lot of effort for a character that isn't all that popular compared to the likes of Tetra/Toon Zelda, Ghirahim, and even Tingle, not to mention that in half her appearances (including her most recent one) she is an old nursemaid, not a warrior. Maybe fate will favor her more next time?
Want - 0% - We've already got Sheik, and I don't care enough for the character to want what would almost certainly be a clone.

(Edited because Ganon, also typos)