Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Glaciacott]

Mm, normally I like to go back to previous ratings, but yea, this time I'm just going to go by my current gut

Tingle
Chance - 7%
Want - 30%

Ghirahim
Chance - 24%
Want - 70%

Ok, I'll address both at the same time I suppose. I think I'm agreeing with andimidna, but frankly that post was so all over the place that I'm actually not sure about it. Well, in any case, I have noticed that Sakurai seems to be highlighting new characters for franchises like Mario and Pokemon. I think this means that it's more likely he'll look at what's new in Zelda and draw from there. This means the possibility of Ghirahim or a character from Wind Waker due to the Wind Waker HD rerelease, which could be Tetra, but more on her later.
Frankly put, Ghirahim has been very popular and has less of a hate base than Tingle, for whatever reason.
I also kind of wonder why Tingle is appearing less in Zelda games than he used to ...

Want-wise, I never cared much for Tingle but I guess I'd be ok with it, particularly since I'm personally really really into fairy pokemon so I can't just that guy for being so into fairies. I guess. But Ghirahim, in the meantime, was one of the characters that made Skyward Sword enjoyable for me to watch (I saw a friend play it because I was in a lazy mood), with the other character being Groose. And while it would be GODLIKE if Groose became a staple of the Zelda series, that's just not going to happen and somehow Ghirahim became more popular, so my want for him is high.
Not the highest from Zelda newcomers though, but more on that tomorrow.

I'll pass on want because, again, I have no idea how to predict how people see a Zelda newcomer.

 

[Zuby]

Tingle
Chance - 8%
Want - 33%

Of all the Assist Trophies that could get promoted to playable characters, Tingle probably rates in the bottom third. And since a top third character (Waluigi) and several middle third characters (Saki, Samurai Goroh, Lyn) have been rejected, I can't see someone as inoffensive as Tingle getting lifted above them.


Ghirahim
Chance - 21%
Want - 75%

Ghirahim would be an interesting character to play as. For some reason I imagine his moveset having some similarities to Ivy from Soul Calibur 2, which might appeal to Namco. But like all Zelda characters he's got to get past Tetra first, and with the Zelda/Sheik split that task just got a hell of a lot harder.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Turn your heads to Mario and Pokemon, please.

Now lets take a good look at those series' newcomers...

Interesting...
It appears the other 2 of Nintendo's main series have received characters that are unimportant in the grand scheme of things...
They're also very new, and represent the most recent major installments of the series...
They've become extremely popular, but only recently.
And they both beat:

View attachment 12857
Toad and Meowth.
The next most iconic choices from the series. Looks like that doesn't matter as much as some of you think, eh?

I'd literally just got over the fact my two most wanted newcomers BAR NONE that I've wanted since Smash64 lost out to a pair of newcomer randoms, and this post has just pointed out how insanely ****ed over I've been this Smash regarding newcomers.

RIP Toad and Meowth. Screwed over by Nintendo marketing nonsense.

Tingle:
Chance: 8%
Tingle is probably the most iconic Zelda character currently not in Smash as a playable(aside from other iterations of the Triforce trio), has his own series, well known the world over...he hasn't been in recent Zelda however due to the west's dislike of the character, and that Zelda generally sells better in the west than Japan.

After Toad(and to a far lesser extent Meowth), I can't see Tingle being picked...purely because he's not been in the most recent game and at this point 'Muh relevancy' seems to be an actual thing, so I guess from now on I'm not betting on anyone who wasn't starring in the newest game. Kick K. Rool's % from me back down to 0.

Want: 50%
I actually don't hate Tingle(unusual apparently) and I certainly think he deserves it far more than nearly every other Zelda character to date(outside maybe Vaati, but that's personal bias), I just don't think he'll get in.

Unfortunately there's another reason my want isn't as high as it could be...I'm a fan of the original Balloon Fighter, which Tingle does slightly step on the toes of.

Ghirahim:
Chance: 20%
Aight, so Ghirahim is a recent popular(ish) character from Skyward Sword. In that way he's similar to Rosalina and Greninja...but he's also from one of the worst selling Zelda games in the series. He's not constantly being shoved down the throats of the Zelda fans like Rosalina has been doing so to the Mario fans, so it's not like he's such a sure thing.

Greninja is also insanely popular within the Pokemon Metagame due to his useful hidden ability(which is by far one of the best) and his look is appealing; a cool ninja Pokemon...

Ghirahim COULD come back and he COULD have relevance outside of being a quirky one hit wonder...but I'm not overly feeling his chances are too hot right now, even with his game being 'recent'. A game which isn't as recent in the series as either Wind Waker HD or A Link Between Worlds.

Hilda 4 Smash I guess.

Want: 15%
He's NotVaati sadly, which means I'm not that fussed. He's also not Ganon, and I never got around to playing Skyward Sword so the connection for me just isn't there.

I'm reliably informed he'd be a fun Smasher, but they said that about the likes of Lucas and Mewtwo in the past so I'm taking it with a pinch of salt. Sorry Lucas fans, he never appealed to me.

Predictions:
Toon Zelda: 3%
Without the appeal of Tetra being tacked on via transformation, and regular Zelda using Phantoms, frankly Toon Zelda has ran out of appeal.

Tetra: 39%
Popular Smash choice and secondary Toon choice.

Impa: 3%
When they did away with transformations, frankly Impa shoulda taken Sheik's moveset. Instead that one shot character got in again, which does nothing but injure Impa's chances.

 

[Leafeon523]

Captain Fabulous Ghirahim:
Chance: 40%
Honestly, I really think that another LOZ newcomer is inevitable. Why? Well we have seen a lot of cool new inclusions from the Zelda series, such as Midna being n assist, Fi trophy, 3 stages (including a Skyward sword stage), items like the Cuccos, beetle, bombchu, and gust bellows, so why not add playable a character as well? The other two series with large amounts of things drawn from them are Mario and KI. Mario already has a newcomer, while we voted and said Palutena has a 95% CHANCE.
As for people who say "LOZ can's get a newcomer, it will have 6 slots!" We got 4 LOZ newcomers in melee and 4 pokemon reps in brawl, and nobody complained over slots then. People need to stop looking at the number of slots and look at the number of newcomers added. We all know how everyone's thought of Brawl+mewtwo worked out...
So why only 40%? Well, he is one-off character, and he does have competition in the form of the just-as-fabulous-but-actually-appears-more-than-once villain Vaati.
Want: 95%
I'd prefer Vaati, but would still love to see him.
Tingle:
Chance: 10%
I'll be seeing you on Termina bay...
Want: 5%
...popping your pathetic balloon everyday!

 

[Knuckles the Knuckles]

Tingle
Chance: 50%
He's pretty big in Japan, plus he was an AT already, so he could be a trade off of West getting Lil Mac and the East getting him.

Want: 20%
Um.... I dont really.... I guess? I mean you could do some stuff with him, but his signatures like bombs and balloons are already used by other characters so I rather have...


Ghirahim
Chance: 60%
One of the most popular Zelda villains after only one game, plus hes from a newest one so if theres a Zelda newcommer coming, this would be my first idea.

Want: 80%
As I explained in the character thread, Id love to see him in, really solid potential for a moveset plus I just adore this character.

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Overruled!!!

 

[Deleted member]

Tingle

30% Chance: Keeping in mind he wasn't a hidden trophy in Brawl and that he's exactly the sort of character liked by Sakurai, I feel Tingle has a good shot at being playable. He's also a good candidate for uniqueness, given his ******-like size and bizarre potential for moves. What's going against him is the "hatebase" and the fact Tingle hasn't been in a Zelda game for a while, plus his own series is more-or-less dead.

I agree that Sheik being made her own separate character hurts every potential Zelda newcomer. There are now five, obviously Ganondorf is coming back, so anything else would have to be on the Toon Link side. We already have TP Link, Zelda, Sheik and Ganondorf, I assume. Toon Link is fairly lonely over there and Tingle I'm sure would love to keep him company. Kooloo-Limpah!

65% Want: I used to hate Tingle, but I've warmed up to the character. He's a fun personality and has good moveset potential, in his balloon, Tingle Tuner, rupee powers and other stuff from the "toon Zeldas." Now, I'm not the biggest Tingle fan. He's just a lot more likable and different compared to his direct rivals. I really don't care for other Toon clones of existing Zelda characters or pretty much anyone likely from WW/PH/ST, sorry.

Ghirahim

15% Chance: This is an optimistic score, believe it or not, as I'm going to assume based on Rosalina and Greninja that Sakurai is looking at recent games for inspiration. Ghirahim has some popularity, especially in Japan, and isn't maligned nearly to the same extent as Tingle, his number one competitor. The problem for Ghirahim is that, unlike Tingle, he is as of yet nonrecurring and we all know how that went for Skull Kid and Zant.

On the plus side, I feel that Ghirahim has incredibly good potential for a moveset. I've gone over it a few times, but not only does he use magic in a creative way, but the way he actually fights is also super interesting to adapt into Smash Bros. Far more interesting than other swordsmen. Sakurai I could see really enjoy crafting a set for this character based on the potential for swordplay, minions, barriers, warping and a transformation.

85% Want: I would've preferred Skull Kid or Zant, but Ghirahim is in the least his own character and has a stronger personality than either of those two. He was one of the few bright spots in Skyward Sword, another being Groose. Sadly, as dungeons in Skyward Sword were almost completely disconnected from the rest of the game, Groose never got to be a sage or participate in them in any way, whereas Ghirahim steals the boss fights from two dungeons.

Ghirahim's moveset could be really fun. We've not seen a magic-wielding swordsman or a minion user who uses magic. We've not seen a teleporting character who is competent at a close-medium range. On a fundamental level Ghirahim is quite distinctive. He'd be a tonne of fun to play. There are some aspects of Ghirahim I don't like, mostly how he is crammed in your face in Skyward Sword, but he is mostly a good character.

Toon Zelda: 2%
Must be the one guy who thinks it's likely.
Tetra: 20%
Popular candidate, plausible to fill out the Toon side of the roster.
Impa: 2%
Same reasons as Toon Zelda, Diddy Kong has some good theories, but most are going to be very pessimistic.

 

[DeOnde]

Tingle

Chance - 0,001%

"Impossible" is not an easy thing to say in Smash Bros, but i would truly doubt Sakurai's sanity if he did add Tingle, of all incredible possible Zelda Newcomers, as a playable character in Smash.

Motifs: Well, HE HAS NO MOVES, even his balloon recovery is already a part of the Villager's moveset; and he is never shown using any possible fighting move in the games he appeared in. And, aside from his moveset problems, half the world (i think the right proportion is 98,56%) hates Tingle, there is no place for this "fairy" in smash.

and, if you are a Tingle person...

Spoiler

Ghirahim

Chance: 60%

Reasons: A Zelda Newcomer, while not as probable some other nominees, is completely possible; and of all options Ghirahim is obviously the one the best chances.

Want: 85%,

Reasons: Ghirahim is a fresh new character from the Zelda series with a lot of charisma and moveset potential; if i were to guess which character from the Legend Of Zelda series would join the Smash as a playable character, there's no doubt i would choose Ghirahim.

If you think someone else should join instead of Ghirahim...(specially Tingle)

Spoiler

God, if there are so many fabulous Ghirahim images only with SS, imagine if he was in SSB4... i can't help but wonder.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Predictions:

Vaati: Chance: 15% Want: 75%

Reason:

Cons: No recent appearances, small fanbase, didn't appear in Brawl AT ALL (yeah, not even as a sticker).

Pros: BUT, It would be great to have a Villain for Toon Link, and Vaati has lots of moveset material.

Impa: Chance: 5% Want: 35% (i would be disappointed if they chose her for the LoZ newcomer)

Reason:

Not enough moves, inconsistent character, possible Sheik clone, and...

Spoiler

0wn3d by Ghirahim

Tingle: Chance/Want: 0,0001%, please keep him out of this game. Assist trophy at max (3 ATs for legend of zelda? wow, or he will be a stage hazard, who knows).

Toon Zelda / Tetra: Chance: 3,2%. Want: 10% (DEATH TO THE CLONES)

 

[Toxicroaker]

Sorry. But there are too many great Ghirahim gifs for me to pass up on this opportunity
I'm done, I swear.

But I'm not! Let's PARTY!

Spoiler

O-O... Sorry, I got the wrong one.

That's more like it!

 

[Autumn ♫]

Tingle: 25% Chance
He's one of the survivors of the Assist Trophy massacre and can have an very unique moveset. However, with the return of some Melee stages, and not having Skull Kid have anything to do with the moon, I'm having a feeling of Termina Bay returning, and he's really not too important in too many Zelda games, so he'd probably fit better representing his own series, but with that franchise not having any games for a long while, I'm doubting that too.

Want:15%
He may be a bit higher if my most wanted character wasn't Vaati.

Ghirahim: 25% Chance
He's definitely got the popularity and moveset potential, but has the 1-time appearence going against him, and look at what good that did for Zant, Skull Kid/Majora, and Midna. So, out of everything, Ghirahim seems to have a better chance at being an Assist than playable. He's also got some pretty strong competitors against him too, such as Tetra and Vaati.

Want: 20% Chance
I've warmed up to him some since I've begun hereing about him for Smash Bros, but he's still got Vaati being my most wanted hurting him.

Predictions:
Toon Zelda: 5%
Tetra:36%
Impa: 4%

 

[FalKoopa]

Ah, Tingle: 25%
Tingle's hatebase is commonly blown out of proportion, but at the same time, so is his popularity in Japan. Popularity aside, he is pretty distinct from the rest of the Zelda cast and was important/popular/notable enough to get four games of his own (bringing him on par with Little Mac. )

Want: 100%
Yep. I own his support thread. Giving anything less than 100% is blasphemy.

Ghirahim: 15%
He strikes me as the next Midna. He's popular and new, but he's very unlikely to appear in a future Zelda title, which hurts him.

Want: 15%
He's fabulous. But that's about it. Hard to like him when I haven't played Skyward sword.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

So Zelda Characters.

Right now we have Link, Zelda, Sheik, Ganondorf (who's getting re-worked) and Tlink... 5 Characters, in line with Mario, though I fully expect Bowser Jr. so there's still one slot they could use... (yes, I know it's not hard and fast because of Mewtwo data in Brawl, but Pokémon is the only series that can justify having more than Mario in my books, and I imagine the marketting department would agree).


So what's the chances of Jr? I say 88% (90% another Mario character, 2% for a surprise... because Sakurai)... And then Zelda would have about 75% of that chance of getting a character because it's just not as big as the other two and is pretty much complete.

so we're already down at 66%, let's look at splitting that up.

The split for Zelda newcomers

Tingle -10% (His own games are a big boon, but his hate-base is well known, and I feel he's slowly disappearing from the series... it's a shame as he'd be my personal pick thanks to his own games too... Also got the issue of Termina Great Bay potentially being a past stage.)
Ghirahim - 15% (He's flavor of the month, and I can't really see him coming back (unlike Greninja and Rosalina who are clearly going to appear in everything forever more)... but if he is going to be coming back he'll probably be in Smash Bros. Ghirahim gives the series a second antagonist, and an antithesis Master Sword that could be used in later set Zelda games... The dissolving does leave things open ended, but I still see him as a one off villain.)
Impa - 0% (I doubt she'd even be considered)
Toon Zelda - 0.01% (They wanted Tetra but didn't have time to do it so made a semi-clone...? Given TP Zelda's Phantom being Toon Style though I really really doubt this is the case!)
Tetra - 75% (The honestly popular character who would bring a fun Piratey moveset with her. She's been popular for a while, has 3 game appearances (and a further as a stain-glass window), and could actually help complete the toon side of the series a bit more (the toon games don't really focus on Ganon in the same way, but there's still a Zelda in some form, and tetra would represent that.)



So let's just do some maths:

Tingle: 6.6%
Want: 100%
He'd be great, and represent something more than just Zelda.

Ghirahim: 9.9%
Want: 20%
I would be a little disappointed, but it means he's likely coming back, and that would mix things up for the Zelda series... I'd be okay with that... He also has decent moveset potential... I just don't really want him I guess.




Impa: 1.2%
Diddy Kong... Sheik basically took her chance though.

Toon Zelda: 7.1%
People still think the Phantom is in TP design...

Tetra: 44%
I think I'll be voting above the curve... oddly Ghirahim is getting rated really high cutting into Tetra's score... Surely?

 

[Cpt.]

Tingle
Chance 15%
Want 0 %

Ghirahim
Chance 10%
Want 0%

 

[Xenigma]

Turn your heads to Mario and Pokemon, please.

Now lets take a good look at those series' newcomers...

Interesting...
It appears the other 2 of Nintendo's main series have received characters that are unimportant in the grand scheme of things...
They're also very new, and represent the most recent major installments of the series...
They've become extremely popular, but only recently.
And they both beat:

View attachment 12857
Toad and Meowth.
The next most iconic choices from the series. Looks like that doesn't matter as much as some of you think, eh?

I think you may be overestimating how much Rosalina and Greninja's inclusion may help Ghirahim. Rosalina's first game appeared in 2007, some six and a half years ago (before Brawl even!) and has since appeared in two other main-series Mario games, four Mario Karts including an arcade release, a Mario Party, and a Mario Golf. Clearly, she's here to stay. Greninja is a Pokemon, which means it's likely to appear in every single Pokemon game that releases in the future. Even if it's important moment is X/Y, it's clearly here to stay.

Ghirahim, on the other hand, is a character who has appeared in one Zelda game, and he is liable to never appear in another Zelda game ever again. Sure, he made enough of a splash in 2011's Skyward Sword to earn quite a few fans, but unlike Rosalina or Greninja he has one game to his name and, barring Smash, may well only ever get to be in one game. To date, one-off characters who have made it in from Zelda are Sheik, an extremely popular variant of the eponymous Princess Zelda, and Ganondorf, an extremely popular variant of series villain Ganon who has since become recurring, and both characters come from what was already considered by Melee's release one of the best games ever made. Is Ghirahim's popularity really sufficient to make the jump? It's hard to say.

Simply put, Rosalina and Greninja prove recency helps at least somewhat. That still leaves a big uphill climb for Ghirahim, at least judging by Zelda's historical representation in Smash.

 

[Miffa]

I think you may be overestimating how much Rosalina and Greninja's inclusion may help Ghirahim. Rosalina's first game appeared in 2007, some six and a half years ago (before Brawl even!) and has since appeared in two other main-series Mario games, four Mario Karts including an arcade release, a Mario Party, and a Mario Kart. Clearly, she's here to stay. Greninja is a Pokemon, which means it's likely to appear in every single Pokemon game that releases in the future. Even if it's important moment is X/Y, it's clearly here to stay.

Ghirahim, on the other hand, is a character who has appeared in one Zelda game, and he is liable to never appear in another Zelda game ever again. Sure, he made enough of a splash in 2011's Skyward Sword to earn quite a few fans, but unlike Rosalina or Greninja he has one game to his name and, barring Smash, may well only ever get to be in one game. To date, one-off characters who have made it in from Zelda are Sheik, an extremely popular variant of the eponymous Princess Zelda, and Ganondorf, an extremely popular variant of series villain Ganon who has since become recurring, and both characters come from what was already considered by Melee's release one of the best games ever made. Is Ghirahim's popularity really sufficient to make the jump? It's hard to say.

Simply put, Rosalina and Greninja prove recency helps at least somewhat. That still leaves a big uphill climb for Ghirahim, at least judging by Zelda's historical representation in Smash.

Rosalina is also in Mario golf DLC now so u can add that she is becoming someone who ill prob be in all mario games and most spin offs for now on

 

[Pacack]

@ Groose , this is a case that I would strongly recommend leaving out any 0% chance ratings in order to avoid biased ratings, considering how disliked a character Tingle is. I don't think it's justified giving a character with such an undeniably impressive resume a flat zero; placing him among the likes of Athena Cykes and Reggie.

 

[Xenigma]

Rosalina is also in Mario golf DLC now so u can add that she is becoming someone who ill prob be in all mario games and most spin offs for now on

Blah, I said Mario Kart again instead of Mario Golf. Fixed, thanks!

 

[colder_than_ice]

@ Groose , this is a case that I would strongly recommend leaving out any 0% chance ratings in order to avoid biased ratings, considering how disliked a character Tingle is. I don't think it's justified giving a character with such an undeniably impressive resume a flat zero; placing him among the likes of Athena Cykes and Reggie.

As long as they honestly believe a character had no chance, they are allowed to give him a zero.

 

[Cpt.]

I think you may be overestimating how much Rosalina and Greninja's inclusion may help Ghirahim. Rosalina's first game appeared in 2007, some six and a half years ago (before Brawl even!) and has since appeared in two other main-series Mario games, four Mario Karts including an arcade release, a Mario Party, and a Mario Golf. Clearly, she's here to stay. Greninja is a Pokemon, which means it's likely to appear in every single Pokemon game that releases in the future. Even if it's important moment is X/Y, it's clearly here to stay.

Ghirahim, on the other hand, is a character who has appeared in one Zelda game, and he is liable to never appear in another Zelda game ever again. Sure, he made enough of a splash in 2011's Skyward Sword to earn quite a few fans, but unlike Rosalina or Greninja he has one game to his name and, barring Smash, may well only ever get to be in one game. To date, one-off characters who have made it in from Zelda are Sheik, an extremely popular variant of the eponymous Princess Zelda, and Ganondorf, an extremely popular variant of series villain Ganon who has since become recurring, and both characters come from what was already considered by Melee's release one of the best games ever made. Is Ghirahim's popularity really sufficient to make the jump? It's hard to say.

Simply put, Rosalina and Greninja prove recency helps at least somewhat. That still leaves a big uphill climb for Ghirahim, at least judging by Zelda's historical representation in Smash.

Yeah really. Ghirahim is not deserving for a spot at all. Especially while their are much more important character left to include. I hate to say Tingle, but yes Tingle. Vaati for sure. Impa. Yeah Ghirahim has a ways to go before we start including one-hit-wonder bosses, which we should never include as all stars.

 

[Pacack]

As long as they honestly believe a character had no chance, they are allowed to give him a zero.

I'm practically positive that they are not as confident about Tingle's exclusion as they are about Athena Cykes'.

A 5% is understandable. Heck, a 3% is understandable. But 0% is unreasonable.

 

[Rockaphin]

Tingle:
Chance: 85%
Want: 10%

Ghirahim:
Chance: 60%
Want: 5%

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I'm practically positive that they are not as confident about Tingle's exclusion as they are about Athena Cykes'.

A 5% is understandable. Heck, a 3% is understandable. But 0% is unreasonable.

I'm that confident about Miis...


People have different ways of thinking, and for some that's a very black and white mentality.

 

[Pacack]

I'm that confident about Miis...


People have different ways of thinking, and for some that's a very black and white mentality.

Even those with a black and white mentality should be able to tell when something has a remote chance.

You wouldn't rate a likely character 100%, would you?

 

[ultimatekoopa]

The fabulous guy Chance 40% I think I'm being optimistic here but the trophy quiz could possible be hinting a zelda newcomer and ghirahim is the only possible rep for skyward sword
Want 80% He pretty much got it all except one little thing...mercy
Tingle chance 30% I don't think he has much of a chance, he is currently in danger with the possible return of great bay from melee
Want 5% I hate him

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Even those with a black and white mentality should be able to tell when something has a remote chance.

You wouldn't rate a likely character 100%, would you?

No, but the big difference here is that you can run out of time, or just come across a technical difficulty (see legal and executive meddling) while developing a character that makes it impossible... you can't discard a character and then accidentally find all the code, animations, liscences and files for them completed on the disk at release...


Question:
What are the chances of me getting a hole in one at Sunningdale with fair weather and as many shots as I want?

Answer:
0% I don't play golf!

 

[colder_than_ice]

I'm practically positive that they are not as confident about Tingle's exclusion as they are about Athena Cykes'.

A 5% is understandable. Heck, a 3% is understandable. But 0% is unreasonable.

I personally don't think any zero is unreasonable, I'll admit that giving out 100%'s can be unreasonable at times as that can be a lot more selective (there's going to be a lot more characters who don't make it in than those who do). I also think it's a bit of a stretch to use characters like Athena as the standard for zeros as she's obviously a joke character. I personally don't agree with giving characters like Tingle a zero myself but I understand why people may think he has no chance (he was kicked out of the Zelda franchise after all) and I don't feel it's right to block their votes just because we don't agree.

 

[YT123]

Ghirahim
Chance: 51%
I think Ghirahim actually has a bigger chance than most of us believe.. especially because of the Fi trophy from the direct, which might be a hint.
Want: 90%
I really like Ghirahim, he has a great personality and I think we can really use someone like him in Smash.

Tingle
Chance: 13%
He upgraded from Stage Hazard to Assist last time, but I don't think he'll get another upgrade to be fair.
Want: 20%
Honestly I don't think Tingle is suitable for this game as a playable character.

 

[HRR2b23]

Ah, today begins the Zelda franchise binge. This is a series that has meant a lot to me over the years, so I'm going to enjoy rating these characters.

All of these characters' ratings hinge on the chance that the Legend of Zelda series gets a 6th representative, because there is no way Ganon is not returning to battle. Six reps may seem like quite a lot for the series, but keep in mind that Zelda has always been one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, and a precedent has been set that very important franchises CAN indeed get six reps (Assuming Pokemon Trainer counts as three separate characters.) Having said that, I give The Legend of Zelda series a 65% chance of getting a sixth character, and this number will be divided among the five characters being rated the next two days.

Tingle

Tingle has always been a bit of a strange one in the Zelda universe. On one hand, he played very minor roles in Majora's Mask and the less known Oracle, serving the purpose of only giving the player maps. In Wind Waker, his role was expanded and his personality made into even more of a rupee-pinching maniac. He also is in the unique position of having his own spin-off series, although these games are not exactly well received. In the US, Tingle has very little popularity, with some people even flat out hating the guy, while in Japan he does have some popularity going for him. However, despite his quirky personality and his spin-off games, there really is not much room for moveset potential in this character, and were he added he would probably be one of the worst received characters. On top of this, there are many other more capable newcomers the series has to offer, which are being discussed in the next two days.

Given these statements, I give Tingle a 0% chance to appear in Smash 4. He just has far too many things going against him. Oh yeah, there's andimidna's Tingle Theory too, which may hold some weight.

Now just because I give a character a zero percent chance, I won't necessarily give them a zero percent want. In fact, I actually think Tingle could be quite a funny character if done correctly. However, he really isn't that great of a character in my opinion, and there I would probably rather have any of the other potential Zelda newcomers than him. Having said that, I'll give Tingle a 10% want.

Ghirahim

Ah, now this is my kind of character. The Demon Lord has a lot going for him in this game. Not only does Ghirahim play a major role in Skyward Sword, the most recent 3D Zelda, but he is also probably one of the most well-received villains in the series to date. His personality is sadistic, narcissistic, and just plain creepy. Ghirahim knows what he wants and he actually has the ability to make it happen, unlike some other Zelda villains. He also has more moveset potential that some of the characters that are actually IN THE GAME (I'm looking at you, Captain Falcon.)

Of course, it isn't all sunshine and rainbows for our Demon Lord. He has the nasty stigma of likely being a one-shot villain, and unless he is planned for a future Zelda title, he will probably stay that way. Of course this hurts his chances immensely. It isn't like there is any sort of a precedence set for a very popular, interesting, and obvious fighter, but one-shot character getting a spot in the Smash Bros series. That would be preposterous!

Oh, wait.

Sheik, in her time was (and in a way still is) a one shot character. However, she was popular enough and had enough moveset potential to warrant a spot on the roster for Melee. I could very easily see the same thing happening for Ghirahim. So, given all of this, I am going to give Demon Lord Ghirahim a 50% Chance of being a playable character in Smash 4.

As if this wasn't obvious enough from my above analysis, I am a BIG fan of Ghirahim. In fact, he is my favorite villain in the Zelda series by far. Along with this, he is also without a doubt my most wanted newcomer to the smash bros series. So Ghirahim gets the honor of having a 100% Want. I would give him more if I could, trust me.

Oh, and you know how Ghirahim feels when he sees all of these people giving him 0% chances?

 

[Pacack]

No, but the big difference here is that you can run out of time, or just come across a technical difficulty (see legal and executive meddling) while developing a character that makes it impossible... you can't discard a character and then accidentally find all the code, animations, liscences and files for them completed on the disk at release...


Question:
What are the chances of me getting a hole in one at Sunningdale with fair weather and as many shots as I want?

Answer:
0% I don't play golf!

I genuinely don't understand how what you're saying is comparable. Could you please rephrase it?

I personally don't think any zero is unreasonable, I'll admit that giving out 100%'s can be unreasonable at times as that can be a lot more selective (there's going to be a lot more characters who don't make it in than those who do). I also think it's a bit of a stretch to use characters like Athena as the standard for zeros as she's obviously a joke character. I personally don't agree with giving characters like Tingle a zero myself but I understand why people may think he has no chance (he was kicked out of the Zelda franchise after all) and I don't feel it's right to block their votes just because we don't agree.

The list of characters that have been given a less than .1% include:

(T) 161. Yarne and Owain Team (Fire Emblem): 0.03% chance, 16.38% want
(T) 162. Scrooge McDuck (Duck Tales): 0.03% chance, 12.96% want
(T) 163. Athena Cykes (Ace Attorney): 0.03% chance, 6.08% want
164. Lupus (Jet Force Gemini): 0.00% chance, 6.20% want

So characters that are considered reasonable to give 0% chance to include Joke Characters (Yarn and Owain and Athena Cykes) and unimportant third party characters that have to compete with more important characters in their companies.

Tingle is neither of those. Even a 1% chance is reasonable, being a 1/100 chance, than flat out 0%.

 

[colder_than_ice]

I genuinely don't understand how what you're saying is comparable. Could you please rephrase it?


The list of characters that have been given a less than .1% include:

(T) 161. Yarne and Owain Team (Fire Emblem): 0.03% chance, 16.38% want
(T) 162. Scrooge McDuck (Duck Tales): 0.03% chance, 12.96% want
(T) 163. Athena Cykes (Ace Attorney): 0.03% chance, 6.08% want
164. Lupus (Jet Force Gemini): 0.00% chance, 6.20% want

So characters that are considered reasonable to give 0% chance to include Joke Characters (Yarn and Owain and Athena Cykes) and unimportant third party characters that have to compete with more important characters in their companies.

Tingle is neither of those. Even a 1% chance is reasonable, being a 1/100 chance, than flat out 0%.

There's at least 80+ characters outside of those four that have gotten at least one zero from someone. It would be better to compare Tingle to those characters (as he's only gotten two zeros so far) rather than comparing him to characters who were drowned in zeros.

Please understand that I'm not saying giving Tingle a 0% is reasonable, I just don't think it's right to block people's votes because of it. I'm really sorry for arguing so much, can we please just agree to disagree?

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Well after a long, long, long break, I am back to RTC!!!

So who are we rating today?
The two biggest Zelda newcomers?
Alrighty then, this is gonna be an interesting one!

Ghirahim Chance: 50%
Let me address this first,

Turn your heads to Mario and Pokemon, please.

Now lets take a good look at those series' newcomers...

Interesting...
It appears the other 2 of Nintendo's main series have received characters that are unimportant in the grand scheme of things...
They're also very new, and represent the most recent major installments of the series...
They've become extremely popular, but only recently.
And they both beat:

View attachment 12857
Toad and Meowth.
The next most iconic choices from the series. Looks like that doesn't matter as much as some of you think, eh?

Interesting....
This really makes me reconsider Ghirahim, as I thought he was extremely unlikely before.

I think this really boosts his chances, but there is one point that you forgot.

The other reason Rosalina and Greninja were chosen is because they bring completely new playstyles to the table. In other words, they are unique.
Rosalina has the whole Luma-controlling thing, and Greninja has a water-samurai moveset.

You know who else is unique?
Tingle.
He has balloons, items, potions, etc..

What does Ghirahim have?
A sword, and magic.

That doesn't seem very unique.

Overall, I'm gonna give both him and Tingle 50% chance, as they each have one half of the reasons the Mario and Pokémon newcomers were chosen.

Ghirahim Want: 70%
He's FABULOUS!!!!!
He is a cool character, and while I think he doesn't necessarily deserve a slot on the roster, I would gladly accept his inclusion!


Tingle Chance: 50%
As I said before I'm giving both Ghirahim and Tingle 50% Chance, as they each hold half of what made the Mario and Pokémon newcomers be chosen over everyone else (Ghirahim is new and at the peak of his popularity, while Tingle has uniqueness and moveset potential).

Tingle Want: 85%
I love Tingle!
I don't know why everyone hates him. The only thing I have ever had against him is the whole Triforce Chart translation prices. Friggin' con artist.
But seriously, I feel he has a lot of moveset potential, and could make for a very interesting character.


Toon Zelda Prediction: 0.25%
Considering transformations are out, and Toon Zelda has nothing unique about her, I'd say her chance are extremely low. The only reason she was remotely likely before was because she had Tetra, who could be unique and different, but transformations are gone, so now Toon Zelda must be a standalone, which would be an absolute waste of a roster slot.

Tetra Prediction: 20%
As I said before, transformations are gone and a Toon Zelda & Tetra team is literally impossible. Though a standalone Tetra seems decent enough.

Impa Prediction: 0.15%
With Sheik being revamped as her own character, we already have a Shekiah slot on the roster. We don't need another.

 

[Starbound]

Tingle: 0.01% Chance / 5% Want
Not being seen in the Assist Trophy reel helps, but the return of Melee stages hurt him because Great Bay is a candidate for returning.

Ghirahim: 2% Chance / 5% Want
Gematsu leak characters don't leave a lot of room for one-timers like this dude.

 

[Pacack]

There's at least 80+ characters outside of those four that have gotten at least one zero from someone. It would be better to compare Tingle to those characters (as he's only gotten two zeros so far) rather than comparing him to characters who were drowned in zeros.

Please understand that I'm not saying giving Tingle a 0% is reasonable, I just don't think it's right to block people's votes because of it. I'm really sorry for arguing so much, can we please just agree to disagree?

He has been given more than a few .1% or .01% chances as well.

But I agree. Let's have @ Groose decide.

 

[Bauske]

I actually kind of agree that a 0% chance is a little unreasonable. At least a 1% or 5% shows that you don't think they're likely at all, but we all know Sakurai can pull stuff completely out of left field, so unless a character is completely deconfirmed, I think it's hard to say they ever has a 0% chance. Just my two cents.

 

[Pacack]

I actually kind of agree that a 0% chance is a little unreasonable. At least a 1% or 5% shows that you don't think they're likely at all, but we all know Sakurai can pull stuff completely out of left field, so unless a character is completely deconfirmed, I think it's hard to say they ever has a 0% chance. Just my two cents.

This is what I'm saying. At least 1% (or even .1%) acknowledges that there's some chance of it happening.

 

[andimidna]

I think you may be overestimating how much Rosalina and Greninja's inclusion may help Ghirahim. Rosalina's first game appeared in 2007, some six and a half years ago (before Brawl even!) and has since appeared in two other main-series Mario games, four Mario Karts including an arcade release, a Mario Party, and a Mario Golf. Clearly, she's here to stay. Greninja is a Pokemon, which means it's likely to appear in every single Pokemon game that releases in the future. Even if it's important moment is X/Y, it's clearly here to stay.

Ghirahim, on the other hand, is a character who has appeared in one Zelda game, and he is liable to never appear in another Zelda game ever again. Sure, he made enough of a splash in 2011's Skyward Sword to earn quite a few fans, but unlike Rosalina or Greninja he has one game to his name and, barring Smash, may well only ever get to be in one game. To date, one-off characters who have made it in from Zelda are Sheik, an extremely popular variant of the eponymous Princess Zelda, and Ganondorf, an extremely popular variant of series villain Ganon who has since become recurring, and both characters come from what was already considered by Melee's release one of the best games ever made. Is Ghirahim's popularity really sufficient to make the jump? It's hard to say.

Simply put, Rosalina and Greninja prove recency helps at least somewhat. That still leaves a big uphill climb for Ghirahim, at least judging by Zelda's historical representation in Smash.

I really don't think Sakurai cares about what's recurring as much as some may think.
Those 2, and Sheik over Impa should make it obvious that popularity means more than importance.
Sure, Rosalina has established some importance, but it's not much compared to Toad. Who's been in every game she's been in and more.
And sure, Greninja will reappear, but that didn't influence his addition at all. Think about it, why Greninja over someone that already HAS reappeared multiple times and will as much as Greninja in the future. Popularity.
It was popularity.
Sure Little Mac is an important Nintendo character, but the reason he's in is most likely popularity.
Sure Mega Man something, something, something.... but he wouldn't have made it if it wasn't for popularity.
Rosalina is that new Mario character the fans of the series are obsessing about right now.
Greninja is the new Pokemon that everybody wanted because that's who all their friends choose.
It's popularity.
Ghirahim is the Zelda equivalent of these 2.
And if your bringing up how Greninja WILL be in future games...
Who's to say Ghirahim WON'T?
We don't know... We can't know...
But it's likely that he'll be in Hyrule Warriors, whatever that's worth.
I'm expecting basically every major Zelda character to be in that game... but we'll see...
Like I said, we don't know, and we can't know.

This is what I'm saying. At least 1% (or even .1%) acknowledges that there's some chance of it happening.

I haven't been paying attention to what's happening. But it sound like somebody gave Tingle a 0% chance.
All I have to say is:

If somebody bumps their score up 1-5%, I doubt it could change the average score in the end any more than 0.4%
Which seems insignificant.
I'll agree he unarguably has more than a 0% chance, but ehh..

Well after a long, long, long break, I am back to RTC!!!

So who are we rating today?
The two biggest Zelda newcomers?
Alrighty then, this is gonna be an interesting one!
Ghirahim Chance: 50%
Let me address this first,

Interesting....
This really makes me reconsider Ghirahim, as I thought he was extremely unlikely before.

I think this really boosts his chances, but there is one point that you forgot.

The other reason Rosalina and Greninja were chosen is because they bring completely new playstyles to the table. In other words, they are unique.
Rosalina has the whole Luma-controlling thing, and Greninja has a water-samurai moveset.

You know who else is unique?
Tingle.
He has balloons, items, potions, etc..

What does Ghirahim have?
A sword, and magic.

That doesn't seem very unique.

Overall, I'm gonna give both him and Tingle 50% chance, as they each have one half of the reasons the Mario and Pokémon newcomers were chosen.

Ghirahim Want: 70%
He's FABULOUS!!!!!
He is a cool character, and while I think he doesn't necessarily deserve a slot on the roster, I would gladly accept his inclusion!

Tingle Chance: 50%
As I said before I'm giving both Ghirahim and Tingle 50% Chance, as they each hold half of what made the Mario and Pokémon newcomers be chosen over everyone else (Ghirahim is new and at the peak of his popularity, while Tingle has uniqueness and moveset potential).

Tingle Want: 85%
I love Tingle!
I don't know why everyone hates him. The only thing I have ever had against him is the whole Triforce Chart translation prices. Friggin' con artist.
But seriously, I feel he has a lot of moveset potential, and could make for a very interesting character.

Toon Zelda Prediction: 0.25%
Considering transformations are out, and Toon Zelda has nothing unique about her, I'd say her chance are extremely low. The only reason she was remotely likely before was because she had Tetra, who could be unique and different, but transformations are gone, so now Toon Zelda must be a standalone, which would be an absolute waste of a roster slot.

Tetra Prediction: 20%
As I said before, transformations are gone and a Toon Zelda & Tetra team is literally impossible. Though a standalone Tetra seems decent enough.
Impa Prediction: 0.15%
With Sheik being revamped as her own character, we already have a Shekiah slot on the roster. We don't need another.

Really...
Tingle is unique?
I've always considered him the least unique choice after Toon Zelda, Impa, and Tetra...

And Ghirahim the #2 most unique Zelda choice after Midna who is deconfirmed...

Let me go check out the Uniqueness Tier List thread.
I want to see how they were both rated and why.
I'll write them here soon.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Tingle
Chance- 20%
Not as impossible as some might want to believe. He has his own series, has decent importance in Zelda games, has been remembered by Sakurai in Melee and Brawl, and has not been disconfirmed as an AT. Still... an awfully lot of people hate Tingle and he doesn't really have potential as a fighter.
Want- 30%
I don't hate Tingle. It would actually be pretty funny to beat him up. But I can't see my want score getting higher until some other characters get in.

Ghirahim
Chance- 10%
Somewhat popular one off. I don't think Sheik is comparable as I don't think she would have gotten in without Zelda, and she the only reason she is still in the game as a standalone is because of her history with Smash. Also, we are comparing the popularity and sells of Ocarina vs. Skyward Sword. No.
Want- 10%
Ghirahim, you're pretty cool. Come back when you've proven yourself somewhat important and we can have a reassessment.

 

[BombKirby]

RIP Toad and Meowth. Screwed over by Nintendo marketing nonsense.

Hold on. Toad would never get it. You should just get comfortable with that fact so you don't continually get disappointed with each new smash bros roster. Toad is a helper character and is just one in a thousand of his kind. He has no special abilities other than playing the referee in most games (Mario Party, Olympic games) and simply is used as a filler character when someone more fitting can't take his place (SM3DW and SMB2 where he had to take the place of that random strong guy who we had no Mario equivalent of). 90% of the time his role is to be saved by Mario/Luigi. Luigi's mansion 2 he's too scared to leave the ghost mansion that you have to escort him out. He runs around screaming every time he gets scared. Only in rare cases is he playable and even then he relies on items/powerups to do anything other than jump on people. If he gets in, we may as well let Goombas, Shy Guys, Boos and all of the other "1 in a million baddies" etc into the game. And yes all have been playable before in other games. If they chose any character, it's going to be someone who pays tribute to the respective game they game from. You shouldn't get all huffy over "marketing nonsense" when it's just a tradition they've been doing since SSB64.

Meowth has always had a decent chance though. Too bad. Maybe next time. He woulda been a good idea in 64 IMO over Jiggly when he was at his highest peak of relevance.

---------------

Tingle: 25% Chance 50% Want
He hasn't been too relevant recently, but he's in almost every Zelda game, had his own game, has an obvious possible moveset involving his balloon, rupees, maps, etc.
I'd he fine if he got in and fine if he didn't.

Girahim: 50% Chance - 10% Want
He was just very relevant and has a unique personality and fighting style. He's also a villain which smash bros needs more of. He is a possible canidate but he was only in one game so he may not get in. I would rather someone else who has been in more games. I feel like Girahim will only be in Skyward Sword and it just seems "eh" that he'd be in one game and then forever immortalized in smash bros. Even people like Rosalina are being seen in every spinoff after they appeared, but I think Gira is just going to be a one hit wonder in his own game. Same reason we don't have Vaati essentially.

 

[chronomantic]

-Tingle
Chance - 60%
He has his own spin-off series and he is popular in Japan but as y'all know he has an irrational hatebase in America.
Want - 100%
I want more quirky oddball characters in the game.

-Ghirahim
Chance - 30%
One-shot villain.
Want - 100%
Any Zelda newcomer (except clones) is fine with me.

 

[Xenigma]

Having given 0%s numerous times before, I don't think it's an unreasonable score IF you honestly believe there is no reasonable chance of something happening. As an example, I recently gave Cranky Kong a 0% given we still don't have a third DK character, leading me to believe we won't see a fourth, and I can't reasonably envision Sakurai picking him as a third over Dixie or K. Rool. Maybe that's a bit harsh, and maybe Sakurai proves me wrong and does it anyway (due to bias or inside information or whatever), but from my point of view the reasonable doubt I originally gave the character is out of the picture and thus he's deserving of the zero.

Personally, I don't think Tingle or Ghirahim are deserving of a 0%, but if someone believes either character is that unlikely, especially if they bother to explain why, all the power to them. You don't have to be a Yarne/Owain tag team to have negligible chance, and the extreme of 0% ought to be a valid option over giving every character imaginable 0.001% or whatever simply because they're Nintendo characters.

(Now, I take a little more issue with any newcomer and in some cases even veterans being given 100%s, especially after what happened to Trainer, but that's a slightly different conversation and is probably allowable regardless if we're allowing one extreme of the rating scale.)