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[jaytalks]

Abstain on Dr. Mario and Dark Pit's chances.
Dr. Mario Want: 0%
He is practicing medicine without a degree, setting a poor example for all the kids playing this game. I have no desire to have in the game.
Dark Pit Want: 100%
Why wouldn't I want the real version of Pit?

More newcomers Chances: 10%
I don't see why the leak would be incomplete. The fun middle ground would be that the roster is incomplete, but its just missing smash veterans. Also, the leaked roster is already quite Ridley.
More newcomers want: 100%
The more the smashier!

 

[Kalimdori]

Chance for all 3: 100%

Leak is real, therefore all 3 are 100%. No question about it, and I'm laughing hysterically at those who doubt it. I made a list on my last rating, but I think I'll go more in depth this time around.

If you want to skim for the important stuff, i'll mark it in red.

So, why is this leak true? Let's start from the top:
1. Characters:

• We have seen a total of 12 completely unique character renders on the roster screen. In addition, we have around 30 (To lazy to get an exact number) completely new trophy models. This means we have around 40 brand new 3d models. Models that have been textured, rigged, and posed. These models would take around a month for a team of artists to fully make, assuming they don't have jobs and, well, lives.

• In addition to that, we have 8 (9. We see Yoshi for a split second) characters completely rigged and animated in the Smash 4 engine. THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE WITH BRAWL HACKS! The combination of the effects from attacks ("Slicing" through the air, the black lightning effect for hard hitting attacks, the K.O. effects, explosions, fire, items, etc.) the new, unique animations for new characters (I'd argue about Jr. not copying Diddy's animations, but this isn't to do in Brawl's engine anyway, making that argument moot in the first place), the results screen, and the perfect copy/paste of the confirmed characters models and animations. I want you to take a moment to understand this: They would not only have to make these models and animations completely from scratch, they would also have to make the effects, animations, and physics work EXACTLY the same as Smash 4. This part alone would take a full team of people months to complete! And this is assuming this is all they are doing in those months! This alone confirms that this is real to me.

2. Stages:

• These leakers would also have had to design the 3 stages we saw based off existing assets. (Battlefield, Yoshi's stage, and the Home Run Contest) They would also have had to make multiple renders of confirmed stages from different angles then they have ever been seen. (Or in N's Castle and Tomodachi Life's case, never before seen area of said stages)
  
• This essentially means they would have had to have prior knowledge as to what these stages would look like!

3. Interfaces:

• Now, normally this would be the easiest to fake, as it is much easier to make a menu then it is to model a character. Ironically, this is also the most concrete evidence for the leak.
• First off, they would have to know the selection glitch of when a player character selects a CPU character, causing the portrait lines on the bottom screen to darken (Hard to see, but possible)
• Then, they would have to copy the style of other shown menus for their own. (Difficult, but possible. Until you add in the fact that some of these character renders are brand new. Then it becomes 20 times harder)
• Then, and here's the big one: They would have to know EXACTLY what the menus would look like before they were revealed!
• Take yesterday's PotD. We were shown the challenges screen, with a design IDENTICAL to the one that was leaked several days previously. Not only that, the pictures that were unlocked on both screens were EXACTLY THE SAME! So not only did they know exactly what the menus looked like, they knew exactly what pictures would go where!
• This same thing occurred in the previous 2 updates as well, where we were shown the designs of the classic mode bottom screen and the spectator screen, both of which had never been seen before and were IDENTICAL to the ones shown in the leak.

Final Verdict: If these leaks are fake, the people who made them are psychics who are willing to devote several months of their lives to creating this leak.

I don't believe in psychics. Therefore I give the leaks, and everything contained in them, 100% in chance. Confirmed. And I didn't even have to mention Nintendo going on a witch hunt to track down and destroy all the video footage posted.

I would be my entire team of shiny Pokemon that I spent over 400 hours hatching and training to level 100. And I would win that bet.



Oh, and wants!

Dark Pit: 80%
I'm perfectly fine with clone. Just miffed that we got a 3rd KI rep that isn't Hades.
Dr. Mario: 0%
Literal alt costume as a character -_-
More newcomers: 100%
Duh.


I apologize if any of this is nonsensical. Took a long time to write, and now I'm reallllllly tired

 

[Turmalinium]

Dr Mario
Chance: 90%
Want: 0%
Dark Pit
Chance: 90%
Want: 50% (It could still be possible that Dark Pit is not a clone)
More Newcomers
Chance: 90%
Want: 100%

 

[Starbound]

If more newcomers doesn't get 100% want, I've lost faith in this world.

 

[MooseSmuggler]

100% Chance for Doc and Dark Pit
-Want
Doc: 80%--he was my Melee main, and I'm happy to see him return, but I wouldn't have been upset or surprised to see him not come back.
Dark Pit: 60%--I don't have any personal attachment to him, but I can imagine his fans are happy, so good on them.

-More newcomers
Chance: 60%--the All-Star bit makes it likely that we haven't seen the whole roster, but that could have an explanation and I don't see why they wouldn't show the ESRB the full roster.
Want: 100%--I got Shulk, so I personally don't need anyone else, but I know there are people still waiting on their favorites, and I hope at least some of them end up getting what they want. I like it when people are happy, what can I say?

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Dr. Mario:
Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

Dr. Pit
Chance: 95%
Want: 0%

Why the difference in want?
I like Dr. Mario. That's all folks.

Moar newcomers:
Abstain on chance
Want: 100%
The newcomers thrown around the most are:
-Ridley
-Dixie
-Mewtwo

My second most wanted now is Dixie Kong and third is Ridley.

 

[Wyoming]

Dr Mario
Chance: 100%
Want: 85%

Dark Pit:
Chance: 100%
Want: 20%

More Newcomers
Chances: 5%
Want: 100%

 

[Glaciacott]

If more newcomers doesn't get 100% want, I've lost faith in this world.

I take it you haven't seen that prior to your post we already lost the 100% due to a 0.1% rating.

Ok, now, when it comes to my ratings, I'm going to be taking the perspective I had during the whole Lucina phenomenon.

Basically put, I am convinced that Dr. Mario and Dark Pit were shoo-in alternate costumes and worked as such for most of development. Like Lucina was a Marth alt.
However, for particular reasons (the pill for Dr. Mario, for example) Sakurai figured that he'd give them their own roster spot.
So basically, I go into these ratings with the idea that they're essentially alternate costumes with a roster spot and their inclusion doesn't particularly step in anyone's toes. And like I defended Lucina in the past, I feel like I have to be consistent in defending these characters are bonuses we got instead of wasted spots.
THAT SAID, even with this mentality my want is affected by other things, and I'll get to those.

First of all, Chance 100% for both. Particularly Dark Pit being in the set of screenshots with all the menus that have been indirectly confirmed by Sakurai throughout the week.

Dark Pit
Want - 65%
First, I want to start by saying this

I WAS WRONG

As it turns out, the Lucina effect did indeed happen, regardless of how many times I argued against it based on precedent. I don't think my reasnoning was bad, but I'm wrong in any case.
As for want, it's higher than indifference for the reason states above that I don't see Dark Pit as having taken anyone's slot, but instead as just an extra option thrown in. And as someone who loves Kid Icarus and its characters, I think this is a solid one.
Of course, it's not full want because of reasons apparent below.

Dr. Mario
Want - 5%

Now, for the doc, even with the Lucina consideration in mind, I'm pretty freaking salty about him.
First, there is the fact that there are way too many Mario universe characters in this roster and it already irks me that there's always mario games while franchises that are, in my opinion, more admirable and unique are overlooked. Bowser Jr. and Rosaluma I can take because it's a unique moveset, and if the koopaling rumor is true we're talking about 8 characters in one. It makes Dr. Mario seem completely overboard.
Now, but I did say they're really bonus characters so they're extras and didn't get in the way of other series, etc. But that said, there's other potential alternate costumes that could have gotten a full roster treatment that, to me, make a ****ton more sense than Dr. Mario and make the roster look less ****tily overboard with Mario.
For one, there's Lucas who could have easily shared assets with Ness again and gotten that treatment. And then there's a lot of more interesting options like Louie as an olimar clone, Impa as a sheik clone, etc.
At least Lucina and Dark Pit have the edge of novelty and significant characters in their series. Also, they're actual characters with likable personalities, instead of just another Mario. To me Dr. Mario is a relic of clone past that should have stayed there with Pichu and Young Link. To me this is equally bull**** as metal mario and tanooki mario in Mario Kart.
And frankly, I got to be honest, I wouldn't be so salty about him if it wasn't for Mother getting short-ended in all of this. At least Ice Climbers had the loss of a retro but the inclusion of another one. With Mother, we just lost Lucas and got no one else, and that. just. sucks.

So there, even though the Lucina principle applies to the Doc and makes me less sore about him than I would be otherwise, it's still poor form that of all possible alt costumes we could get as extra characters, it was him. Easily my sore spot in this roster.

More Newcomers
Chance - 100%
Want - 100%

This is considering Rhythm Heaven alone. Not even considering Dixie, Ridley, and any other awesome possibilities that could still be in store. Also, add the situation of all-star mode being locked with that CSS.
Frankly, I'm hoping for either a Rhythm Heaven rep or Ridley in the coming weeks. Sakurai has to close the pre-release hype with something ... right?

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Dr. Mario & Dark Pit chance - 95%

Dr. Mario want - 0%
Dark Pit want - 0%

I don't have any desire for them at all. A third Kid Icarus rep is bad enough but I'd have taken Medusa, Hades, Magnus or Eggplant Wizard before Dark Pit.

More newcomers chance - 95%
More newcomers want - 100%

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Dr. Mario and Dark Pit chances: 100%

Dr. Mario want: 65% - I have good memories with the Doc, and I enjoy Mario's moveset, so I'm fine with it.

Dark Pit want: 0% - I've come to dislike Kid Icarus, I don't even like Pit or his moveset, so having an "edgier" version of him in this game easily makes him a candidate for the worst inclusion in the series.

More newcomers:

Chance: 25% - To put it shortly, the roster follows certain rules which would mean that it'd be heavily skewed by any future inclusions. Furthermore, I don't see why they'd showcase anything but the full product to the ESRB, the high trophy count seems to imply it's the full version too. The only thing that puts any doubt on this is that there are some loose ends in regards to credible leaks and of course that All-Star is locked, though the latter can be explained by the game having everything unlocked through debugging, meaning it skips the triggers to unlock All-Star. I'm talking on-disc here btw, DLC is guaranteed imo.

Want: 100% - Duh, why wouldn't I want more characters? With rumored characters like Ridley, Dixie and Mewtwo the roster would also become quite a lot better, in fact it'd be almost perfect (alas, poor K. Rool...)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dr. Mario
Chance: 99%
We haven't seen Doc in footage yet...but I totally called Sakurai would do this for Smash 4 again. I just didn't expect Bowser Jr. alongside him.

Want: 0%(would be fricking minus figures if it could be)
Alright, I'm taking this mildly personally now Sakurai. We have; Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser, Bowser Jr. AND Dr. Mario as playable characters. Luma is playable as part of Rosalina's set(in you can control it), Koopalings are rumoured to be Jr's alts, and you can bet Daisy is an alt for Peach...

You all know where I'm going with this, don'tcha?

Why the **** is every Mario character who is anyone more playable than the one Mario character I genuinely have been wanting for the past 15 years?

And why Dr Mario of all the Melee vets? Mewtwo is everyone's favourite cut veteran, and even Roy ranked above Doc in terms of popularity. Hell; Pichu warranted it more since it's literally not Pikachu in a different coat.

Sakurai why you do this?

Dark Pit
Chance: 99%
No footage again, but c'mon we all saw this coming. Smash Bros. Uprising, etc

Want: Abstain
My want will depend on what they do with Dark Pit. If he's using different weaponry from Pit, fair enough...he's still not my first pick...not even for Kid Icarus, but he's at least got some merit...

...if he's just a slightly more aerial version of Pit with the exact same moveset(and face) then there is no reason for him not to have just been an alt outfit. Want is somewhere between 60% for unique and a flat 0% depending on what he does.

More Newcomers
Chance: 80%
100% if we count DLC after it's being pushed so much on the Wii U and 3DS of late. I can see this being very likely honestly.

Want: 100%
Otherwise it's at least another seven years until the next Smash. That's a long long time to wait.

 

[Leafeon523]

Dr. Mayro and Pittoo:
Chance: 100%
[insert leak rant here]

Want:
Dr. Mario: 20%
in terms of clones, I prefer characters with a least a little more variation than this. such as...
Dark Pit want: 80%
Also, I seriously doubt that Dark Pit will be anything other than a clone.

More newcomers:
Chance (without DLC): 20%
He already lied to us before about unshown newcomers. Just because there is a now picture of locked all-star that could have been taken beforehand you are going to believe him?

Want: 0%
I jest, I jest. 100% obviously.

Nominating Nights at Freddie's x5

 

[bigbro2233]

Oh boy...

Dr. Mario
Chance: 95% - The leak has shown Dr. Mario's (almost) full portrait, but that's pretty much all. No gameplay of the doctor at all, so he may just be put in there to mess with us, like the DLC leak.
Want: 0% - ...Why put in Dr. Mario over another Melee character? Why not Mewtwo, at least he had some charm to him, he had an original moveset after all? I'd take PICHU before Dr. Mario as his own character. Yeah, Pichu.

Dark Pit
Chance: 85% - Same as Dr. Mario, I'm just less sure with Dark Pit for some reason.
Want: 20% - I never played Uprising, but I heard there are some unique weapons that Pit can use. If Dark Pit can use some of these weapons, he may turn out better than Pit, at least for me. I don't know, I'd rather a certain veteran from Pokemon to return before they make another clone.

EDIT: Whoops, typo.

 

[zon770]

Dr.Mario
Chance: 95%
If the leak is real, then the Doctor is back.
Want:100%
Only 100% because of the pill sound.

Dark Pit
Chance:99.9%
With the leak and KI:U being a Sakurai game it's guaranteed.
Want: abstain
All I want is his theme.

More Newcomers
Chance: 45%
They might have one more newcomer, but more than one is highly unlikely
Want: 100%

 

[Mega Hawlucha]

Dr. Mario and Dark Pit Chance: 99%

Dr. Mario Want: 90%
My main in Melee, I am very happy to see Dr. Mario return. For me, it will be all worth it if he has the Dr. Tornado back instead of F.L.U.U.D.

Dark Pit Want: 50%
Indifferent, but, I'm sure he'll have his fans, so it's all good.

More newcomers Chances: 90%
My hypothesis is that this is our final roster for the 3DS Release, but there will be more characters to announce to bridge the releases of the 3DS and Wii U versions that will be added to the 3DS Version in a free patch when the Wii U version releases (or maybe slightly after as an incentive to buying the Wii U version)

Also, given the Mario Kart 8 DLC, I'm almost certain there will be Character DLC.

More newcomers want: 100%
I'd be happy even if it were just more clones.

 

[ChazzzyF]

Dr Mario and Dark Pit Chance: 85%

I still believe that the video is real and that everything else is just as fake-able as it always was. 85% was what I have Duck Hunt Dog, and it's what I'm giving the others.

More Newcomers Chance: 80%

Assuming the leak is true, this isn't the full roster because of All Star Mode. In that case, there are more characters, and I would like to believe that we'll get at least one more newcomer.

Dr Mario Want: 60%

Unless Mewtwo is not present, I have no real problems with this. But why would you bring back Dr Mario before Mewtwo though?

Dark Pit Want: 10%

Don't get me wrong, I love Dark Pit. And I'm ok with clones to an extent. But Lucina and Marth are at least different models. Dark Pit and Pit are not, and that bugs me a bit.

More Newcomers Want: 100%

Of course I want new newcomers. Why wouldn't I?

 

[The Light Music Club]

My calculator can only hold three things at a time. If you'd like, I can add her AT to the list of things that we rate; however, I won't actually average out the score at the end of the day like I always do. We can talk about it, but if you want to see the average, you'll have to do it yourself. Sound like a fair enough bargain?


My apologies. I agree with you, but we are outnumbered here. I'll be glad to see you back in a few days, though.

100% Six Times
Yes. YES. YEEEEEES! I've wanted the leak to be true since the CSS was shown off, and I'm so happy that it's been unofficially confirmed with all the things that match up. Shulk was my third-most wanted because he's a great character from a great game that has great music and would blend great in Smash. Bowser Jr. used to be in my top ten, and although he did drop down a bit last fall, I still did support his inclusion. The Clown Car looks amazing--I could never have imagined him being such a cool character. Finlly, the Duck Hunt Dog is the Duck Hunt Dog--my longtime choice for a Retro character. Woohoo!

Seriously, there's a very large chance that I will main one of the three characters that we've rated today. I'm hoping to do the Duck Hunt Dog, but if he doesn't click for me I'll probably go Shulk or Jr. Sorry, Villager. You'll always be in my lineup, at least.

DAY OVER

THE FUTURE... DOES BELONG TO YOU!​

For sure man! I'd really appreciate it. Thanks!

I'll rate later. I'm a huge Dr. Mario in Melee fan, but the lack of Wolf and Lucas hurt my opinion of him.

 

[Sid-cada]

Dr. Mario and Dark Pit Chance - 95% - Mildly uncertain with the only pictured characters, but otherwise it's solid

Dr. Mario Want - 10% - Arg, could we have at least kept the other semi-clones from Brawl instead of bringing him back? We're now very saturated with Mario characters.

Dark Pit - 20% - OK, I like Uprising, but this is probably stretching into unnecessary We'll see what he's like, but I don't have all too high hopes for him.


More Characters

Chance - 52.5% - Could go either way, but the odd organization could be from a number of missing charaters, so I'm leaning slightly towards yes.

Want - 100% - Who wouldn't?

 

[Hyperthrough]

Dr Mario Chance: 70%
It's possible for come back as a semi-clone to Mario.

Dr Mario Want: 40%
Not entirely excited because I have never played Dr Mario in Melee before.

Dark Pit Chance: 70%
This is kind of Sakurai's creation so I'm sure he wants it in. I'm sure there's a way to make Dark Pit a semiclone, for example, better recovery due to the events of Uprising.

Dark Pit Want: 60%
Possibility use of different Uprising weapons that can have different attributes.

More Newcomers Chances: 20%
Really unlikely due to how close the launch date it is to Japan. I think the leaked characters was basically all of the characters that are new.

More Newcomers Want: 100%
Absolutely, more characters from other Nintendo franchises are always welcomed!

 

[Jdaster64]

Dr. Mario & Dark Pit chances: Again, 99.9% sure they're in.
Dr. Mario want: 100%. Welcome back, old main.
Dark Pit want: 0%. I can accept him given the rest of the roster with no problems, but I'll never use him.

Newcomers chance: 40%, depending on the day and steadily declining. I'm not convinced that the "lock" is all it's cracked up to be, and the roster layout looks pretty final.
Newcomers want: 70%. I'd be all for more characters, but I wouldn't say 100% because all the characters I'd like to see (Chorus Kids, Paper Mario, Gen-V Pokémon other than Zoroark) range from less than likely to "fat chance".

 

[Pacack]

Overall (non-video) leak legitimacy: 75% (explained already)

Dr. Mario:

Chance: 80%
Want: 0%

Dark Pit:

Chance: 87.5%
Want: 60%

More Newcomers:

Chance: 33.34%
Want: 100%

 

[Xenigma]

I jumped the gun slightly, there's at least one rating today worth considering.

Leaked Characters - Abstain
See my post from yesterday.
Want - Also Abstain - Also explained in yesterday's post.

More Newcomers - 80%

Here's the great mystery of the leak as it stands: is it complete, and if not, who's missing? The picture of a locked All-Star mode along with some nonsensical character placement on the CSS indicates that no, it's not complete, yet at the same time it doesn't seem to make sense that Nintendo would be sending the ESRB an incomplete roster when their entire job is rating the content in the game. Further, though we have a small handful of lists going around of who could fill the remaining 4-5 slots that appear to be available, it appears that they are mostly (if not all) made-up to piggyback off the leaked images/video and thus have little to no credibility. That means that, despite having a massive dump of information less than a month prior to the Japanese release, we still have no idea what the final roster is!

So just how likely are more newcomers? For one, the CSS definitely feels incomplete if nothing else. There's slots available and character placement is sloppy at best, which when combined with that All-Star lock seems to indicate there are more non-DLC characters to unlock. Further, though none of the other leaks are reliable, there seem to be common themes of Ridley, Dixie, and Chorus Men making it in in particular, any of whom would make this concept true. The biggest reason this could still fall through is veterans, given there are quite a few that could theoretically make it: Mewtwo's the big one of course, along with the conspicuously missing Ice Climbers, but there's also the popular semi-clones Lucas and Wolf, the unique Pokemon Squirtle and Ivysaur, and of course Snake if they don't mind adding another third party, never mind clone longshots Roy and Pichu. Given this is a roster that is adding two clones and bringing back a Melee clone, who's to say there's really more newcomers to see? Veterans should theoretically always be easier to make than newcomers (except apparently ICs) and there's plenty to choose from for the few slots remaining.

At the end of the day, more newcomers isn't 100% confirmed post-leak, but it sure seems a lot more likely than not. Here's hoping it pans out, because this roster definitely feels incomplete and just a few key additions could make it into something truly special.

Want - 100% - Of course more newcomers would be awesome, and I've clearly got reason to want more given my favorite potential newcomer (along with 3/4 of the other characters in my signature) still aren't in the game.

 

[Nimbostratus]

I'm sticking with wants right now. Chances just don't sound fun anymore.

Dr. Mario
Want- 25%
Too much Mario, but I guess it isn't so different from him just being an alt. He probably didn't take much time, and I guess it'll make a few people happy.

Dark Pit
Want- 25%
Too much Kid Icarus, but I guess it isn't so different from him just being an alt. He probably didn't take much time, and I guess it'll make a few people happy.

More Newcomers
Want- 100%
Just give me K. Rool or Isaac and I'll be satisfied with this roster. Or both.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Dr. Mario/Dark Pit chances: 95% - Leak is legit. We haven't seen gameplay of these two, but things are just too convienient

Now ratings - sorry to everyone who supports, but this may get nasty...

Want Dr Mario: 0% - There's NO reason that the Dr. can't be an alt costume with custom specials. That's the point of custom specials. Lucina was split from being a Marth alt since she is shorter, has different stats, and the hitboxes work differently. Mario is Mario is Mario, end of story.

Want Dark Pit: -100% (yes, that's negative) - **** this character. Seriously, **** him. His inclusion is making Sakurai's Kid Icarus bias obscenely obvious. Link is only getting a Dark Link swap, despite Dark Link being a thing since Zelda II, and that's all he needs. Why not give DP as an alt? KI having three characters (and 6 items, and 2 assists, and 16! Smash run enemies) to cover three games is an outrage to franchises like DK or Metroid, who are supporting loads of games with only two playable characters and less than three items apiece. DK doesn't even have one assist! Smash run representation gives only 13 Mario enemies, 8 Zelda, and 7 SSE. Yes, KI has more than MARIO. WTF? The KI series would have been wonderfully represented with Pit, Palutena, and half of the rest they got. Where are the other series' stages/characters? Too busy making KI stuff? Ugh.
Yeah, this is a bit of a sore topic, in case anyone was wondering.

Ok, for the rest:
More Newcomers

Chance: 90%
Want: 100%
With my lovely rant above in mind, I would be happy if they bring in a few more characters. The roster looks odd in the first place, so more characters can always fit, and the leaks telling us who the remaining are are all over the place. If they did add my favorites, I'd definitely be ok with the roster, even with how much I hate DP. My biggest issue with the roster is it doesn't make sense for Sakurai to completely ignore requested characters. Mewtwo and K.Rool (worldwide) and Ridley (US) have been so widely requested and hyped it's not even funny. For Sakurai to ignore them (or worse, not include them and troll like he's doing with Ridley) is poor form, and that may actually affect sales. Every other character who was deconfirmed was mentioned by name and what they are relegated to. Why not these? For trolling? Is a spot of fun by making fans agonize really going to help sales? If they are out, I'd really want to go up to Sakurai and ask why. Why do you want to dissuade people from buying your product?

Long story short, I hope there are more newcomers, specifically that the big three are in. Maybe Sakurai's been developing them in secret since he knew something would leak, so that way the most hyped characters would stay hidden until he wanted to show them. Honestly, if all three are not in, this is really a sorry excuse for 'the best character game' when the most requested characters are cut.​

 

[soozafone]

Dr. Mario:
Chance: 99.99%. The leak looks pretty solid, even if I don't really understand why he should be in.
Want: 50%. I just have to remind myself that clones don't "steal" spots from other characters. Remembering that, I'm kinda lukewarm about the doctor. I don't want him out, but I don't need him in either.

Dark Pit:
Chance: 99.99%. Leaky leak.
Want: 50% again, an average from 3 possibilities:

• Pure clone with mostly the same mechanics: 10%. Could have just kept the alt costume.
• Luigi-style clone with some different moves, significantly different mechanics (weight, fall speed, strength, etc): 50%. Sure, why not.
• Completely new moveset: 90%. I always like new movesets.

I'm guessing Luigi-style is the most likely, though.

More newcomers:
Chance: 90%. I'm hoping that locked All-Star Mode screen means something.
Want: 1000000000000% 100%. Duh.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The Good Doctor
100% Chance
100% Want

My main back? Yes Please. Also leak

Pittoo
100% Chance
40% Want
Would be higher since I am not racist towards clones, but I do not think KI deserves three characters, especially if we do not get DK and Metroid Newcomers (Though I still think K Rool and Ridley and Dixie Kong are likely)

More Newcomers
100% Chance
100% Want
I can guarantee we will at least get Ridley and a Rhythm Heaven character. DK newcomers seem likely, and there are the claims the leaker made. Not to mention, unrelated, we could still get Lucas, Wolf, and ICs (though I am iffy on ICs).

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dark Pit and Dr. Mario Chance: 100%

It's funny, ever since Dark Pit was teased in the Palutena trailer, people straight-out denied the fact he was being teased for a playable character. They wouldn't waste their time making an animated segment of Dark Pit just to tease him as an alt., to me, illogical, it had to be more than that.People argued that he was a stage boss and an AT, which I'll admit could have been Pittoo's role, but still why tease Dark Pit in the trailer? People argued that the tease was similar to Tom Nook's or Yellow Devil's teases in their specific trailers. But it was obvious that YD was a boss and it's illogical to say he would've been teased as a playable character. Tom Nook's tease was NEVER comparable Dark Pit's, Tom Nook was not a direct tease unlike Dark Pit, it didn't make us question his role at all.

The fact he wasn't shown immediately like G&W makes us question what Sakurai is doing with them. Dark Pit supporters have consistently been showing for the past few months that he is playable in the game, but tons of people didn't seem to click along. Even after Lucina was shown, Dark Pit was still considered unlikely, even after the confirmation of clones in the roster. Even after Sakurai has said that if a character has similar visual proportions, if the character can function even a slight bit to give the character a slot. Still, the ones against Dark Pit still thought he was an alt. costume. The people who consistently ignored the weapons from Kid Icarus and the fact you can easily give him a different Luigified moveset, didn't even bother to research. People still thought 3 Kid Icarus was stretch despite the fact Fire Emblem got an overload amount of 4, and ignored that clones were there to pad the roster, so representation doesn't work against them.

The arguments kept going in circles until now. Now we have this leak right here to correct the people who were against Dark Pit, the arguments above hardly held any value. We now know that the tease wasn't for nothing, and now that we know Dark Pit is his own character with the Dark Pit Staff as his possible main weapon (There was a leaked photo that showed Dark Pit's Staff in partiality, so it's part of his moveset somewhere). His chances are now pretty much guaranteed now, the war against Pittoo is over, and now we Dark Pit supporters won the Dark Pit tease game, our reward is the opportunity to play as him in Smash for 3DS! As Dark Pit would say:
"Aw Yeah!"

I'll just copy and paste Dr. Mario argument here since I think what I said there is enough and doesn't need more to add, to the people who were against him though you should read this:

To get the mood going:

Spoiler

Dr. Mario Chance: 99% I believe he is getting in not only because the leak completely seals his return and the fact the model shown looks extremely slick and similar to the character models of Smash 4's, but because he's a an important part of Nintendo's history. Dr. Mario's games were one of the best rest received puzzles out there, the games have been in several all time best Nintendo games (Honestly it's the main reason why i think he should have never been removed from Brawl. People do ignore this bit about the doctor really often, it's probably one of the reasons why he was picked as a feasible clone (with the exception of Pichu) back in Melee and Sakurai didn't find the Dr. Mario costume working out well.

And like Dark Pit, his chances get even hotter and better because of Lucina, the addition of semi-clones and the statement of "if the function slightly, they can get their own roster spot.", now seems like an obvious time to add him as a filler clone. I think this time if they are bringing him back as a character, he's probably going to have a refined moveset to make him feel less like a pure clone.

I think overall, I feel really confident about his chances, his importance, his easy feasibility as a semi-clone, and the leak sums out Dr. Mario's great chances at being a playable character in the roster.

Dr. Mario as an alt. Chance: 1% Almost no chance of happening, if Sakurai already stated that it would look odd for Dr. Mario to shoot fireballs back in Melee, then there's just no way he can work as an alt. costume.

Nominations:
x5 Duck Hunt Dog

More Newcomers Chance: 50% Could go either way, since we have the locked All Star Mode to keep the newcomer lineup bigger. But it's possible that that picture is outdated and the characters we've seen leaked are the final ones. If there are any remaining ones, I think it's Mach Rider and Chorus Men who are left due to this leak:
http://smashboards.com/threads/possible-leak.363927/

I'll make this quick. A friend of mine has been able to get somebody to give him some information on Super Smash Bros. I just got his email about twenty minutes ago. The full email is below, but I don't want this coming back to me, so please don't let this info leave this thread.

"Hey, sorry it has taken a long time to get back to you, but I finally got my coworker to talk after bugging him about it for a while. So as you know, [removed] was able to play a few matches of the 3DS version of Super Smash Bros. Here's what he said:
-The newcomers he saw were Duck Hunt Dog, Mach Rider, Chorus Men, and Dark Pit.
-Most of his time was spent with Duck Hunt Dog and Mach Rider, although he did try Chorus Men and Dark Pit once, along with Ganondorf.
-Duck Hunt Dog enters the stage by sniffing the ground. His moveset consists of using ducks (throwing them or using them to recover) and using clay pigeons. His final smash is like Snake's from brawl and all the opponents turn into ducks.
-One of his taunts is laughing which apparently made [removed] chuckle.
-Mach Rider is an interesting character that stays on his bike the entire time
-When he isn't moving, he puts a leg town to stand up
-His moveset consists of ramming opponents with his bike and firing projectiles. His final smash is like Captain Falcon's.
-Chorus Men require lots of precise timing according to [removed]. Most of their moves were very similar and all related to singing. [removed] didn't spend too much time on this character.
-Dark Pit was the last character who just appeared to be a Pit semi-clone. [removed] couldn't tell the differences between them though.
-Ganondorf is still a Captain Falcon clone and [removed] thinks he will be low tier.

That's it. I could ask him more, but he seemed pretty annoyed with my contact asking so I doubt I will get anything else. I could try though."

 

[Deleted member]

Get ready for some salt...
This is another duel rating, BTW.
Dark Pit AND Dr. Mario
BOTH Chance: 100%
The leak. Nuff said.

BOTH Want: 0%
I just don't understand. Why? Why these two? Were they that justifiable as separate characters? I know that they follow the Lucina situation, but it makes sense to me that she is a separate character since she is her own character with a distinct appearance. Dr. Mario is just Mario in a doctor's outfit and Dark Pit, while he has his own character, is just a dark version of Pit. I mean, do separate moves, appearances, and voices really mean that they should be more than alts?
I remember saying that adding Dark Pit would be like what PSASBR did by adding Cole and Evil Cole... and they freaking did it. We have Cole, now they added Evil Cole. Really, his inclusion makes me the most salty because he shouldn't really be a separate character. Was it that hard to make him a dark palette swap for Pit and give him his voice? As much as I love Uprising, I have to admit that this has bias written all over it. Hell, why not make Dark Link a separate character? Or how about Shadow Mario? Hell, why not make female Robin and male Wii Fit Trainer separate characters? They have their own distinct appearances and voices. Was Dark Pit necessary? I suppose that Dark Pit could use his Dark Pit Staff, but I am still not looking forward towards his inclusion. It's just stupid. Absolutely stupid.
I've mentioned time and time again that I have fond memories with Dr. Mario, but that still doesn't mean that I wanted to see him return. I also ask again: Was making him an alt costume really that hard? I mean, if Project M can make Dr. Mario work as an alternate costume, then what's Sakurai's excuse? Do people really care if Dr. Mario uses Fireballs or FLUDD? Heck, I bet programming to change Mario's Fireballs to Megavitamins for a Dr. Mario alt costume wouldn't be that hard, especially when a Brawl mod could do it. Also, out of all the cut Melee veterans... Dr. Mario? Really? Why not Mewtwo? I suppose that he's still in the running, but I would feel insulted if Dr. Mario got in over Mewtwo. Heck, I feel insulted that Dr. Mario got in over Roy and freaking Pichu.
That's the keyword here: Insulted. I feel insulted that they got in over newcomers (even if they took a week max). I feel insulted that they got in over some cut Melee veterans. I feel insulted that they got in over potentially cut characters like Wolf and Lucas. As much as I bashed Chrom for not being unique or original, I feel insulted for his supporters that he didn't get in over these two.
I don't care if they follow the Lucina situation; I don't think that they are justifiable as separate characters.

That's the thing with the leak that I both love and hate. You give me two characters that I love and want (Shulk and Bowser Jr.), but then you throw in two characters that I don't want and whose inclusion confuses me (Dark Pit and Dr. Mario). As a result, if it wasn't proven real, I would feel conflicted.

Whew... I'm going to calm down now...

More Newcomers
Chance and Want: Double 100%
All-Star Mode wasn't unlocked yet in the leaks, meaning that there are some characters left.
As for want, why wouldn't you want this?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Dark Pit and Dr. Mario chances: 100%
Dark Pit want: 15%
Dr. Mario want: 5%
For Dr. Mario, I'm disappointed cause of all the Melee-only characters they chose to bring back, it was him instead of Mewtwo. :\ Plus he's probably gonna be ultra-cloney. Pittoo, from what I can gather is a bit more different, since it seems he uses different weapons than Pit (like the staff), but I'm not too happy there either. I'll hold off full judgment till I see them in action though.

More Newcomers:
Chance: 90% Some say it's the final roster, but I'd hope not, esp. with the possibility of DLC.
Want: 100%. If it means Fiora has a shot... I'd be ok with Dixie and Impa too for example.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance for both 100%

Want for both 50%

Its nice to see those 2 in

More characters

Chance and want 100%

All star mode is not unlocked yet and there are 5 boxes not filled

And one of them is ridley get over it.

 

[Glaciacott]

Dark Pit and Dr. Mario Chance: 100%
(To the people who were against Dark Pit, READ!!!)

It's funny, ever since Dark Pit was teased in the Palutena trailer, people straight-out denied the fact he was being teased for a playable character. They wouldn't waste their time making an animated segment of Dark Pit just to tease him as an alt., to me, illogical, it had to be more than that.People argued that he was a stage boss and an AT, which I'll admit could have been Pittoo's role, but still why tease Dark Pit in the trailer? People argued that the tease was similar to Tom Nook's or Yellow Devil's teases in their specific trailers. But it was obvious that YD was a boss and it's illogical to say he would've been teased as a playable character. Tom Nook's tease was NEVER comparable Dark Pit's, Tom Nook was not a direct tease unlike Dark Pit, it didn't make us question his role at all.

The fact he wasn't shown immediately like G&W makes us question what Sakurai is doing with them. Dark Pit supporters have consistently been showing for the past few months that he is playable in the game, but tons of people didn't seem to click along. Even after Lucina was shown, Dark Pit was still considered unlikely, even after the confirmation of clones in the roster. Even after Sakurai has said that if a character has similar visual proportions, if the character can function even a slight bit to give the character a slot. Still, the ones against Dark Pit still thought he was an alt. costume. The people who consistently ignored the weapons from Kid Icarus and the fact you can easily give him a different Luigified moveset, didn't even bother to research. People still thought 3 Kid Icarus was stretch despite the fact Fire Emblem got an overload amount of 4, and ignored that clones were there to pad the roster, so representation doesn't work against them.

And now we have this leak right here to correct the people who were against Dark Pit, the arguments above hardly held any value. We now know that the tease wasn't for nothing, and now that we know Dark Pit is his own character with the Dark Pit Staff as his possible main weapon (There was a leaked photo that showed Dark Pit's Staff in partiality, so it's part of his moveset somewhere). His chances are now pretty much guaranteed now, the war against Pittoo is over, and now we Dark Pit supporters won the Dark Pit tease game, our reward is the opportunity to play as him in Smash for 3DS! As Dark Pit would say:
"Aw Yeah!"

I'll just copy and paste Dr. Mario argument here since I think what I said there is enough and doesn't need more to add, to the people who were against him though you should read this:


More Newcomers Chance: 50% Could go either way, since we have the locked All Star Mode to keep the newcomer lineup bigger. But it's possible that that picture is outdated and the characters we've seen leaked are the final ones. If there are any remaining ones, I think it's Mach Rider and Chorus Men who are left due to this leak:
http://smashboards.com/threads/possible-leak.363927/

I said this before, but even with Dark Pit getting a Lucina spot, the arguments given about him prior to this leak were reasonable to those who made them, namely the fact that Lucina got a graphic Dark Pit didn't get.

If anything, it makes me certain he was an alt when the Palutena video was made and then was given a roster spot later.

But bottom line, don't be that guy. I'm sure you've been wrong about stuff too and wouldn't enjoy people going rapid and making a deal of rubbing it in like you were an idiot for believing otherwise.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Chance for both: 100%

Want for both: 25% (Mostly 25 on Pitoo, ZERO on Doc)

I'm all down for Dark Pit even though KI my be a bit overrepped this game. My only problem is Doc? Really? They bring back someone who is the EXACT same person as another character, yet they don't bring someone who is different like Roy or an unique character like Mewtwo back?

Sakurai has doctor fetish and it shows. I wanna bet his wife is a nurse

 

[Spinosaurus]

I hope the people who are completely against Doc and Dark Pit do realize that it's either them or no one else.

These arbitrary "slots" people cling on to does not exist in ANY fighting game. Doc didn't take Mewtwo's spot. Dark Pit didn't take Ridley's spot. It's not hard to understand that only work needed for them is altered stats, and new victory, idle and taunt animations. That's it.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I usually get over it anyway if I'm wrong.
I was never really rubbing into people's faces, it's just the arguments that people brought up in general in my long post. Maybe it looked like rubbing when you saw what was in the parentheses in the beginning of my post, so I'll just remove it.

 

[FalKoopa]

Looks like a storm passed by when I was away. Ah well...
Going to make my post short, as I'm tired.

Doc: 90%
Want: 100%

Pittoo: 90%
Want: 0%

More newcomers: 85%
Want: 100%

(I'm definitely a rare breed, judging from the want scores. )

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Abstaining on chances once more.

The Doctor Want - 20%

As I said before, I feel a similar way about Doc that I do towards Young Link. I like them in Melee but I want them to just stay in Melee, I didn't want either of them back in Brawl (especially Young Link once I unlocked Toon Link) but I wouldn't mind Doc returning as much as I would Young Link.

Dark Pit Want - 0%

One of the few playable character ideas that I absolutely hate.

More Newcomers - 100%

Hell yes! So many other characters are left that I would still like to see in.

 

[Burigu]

Well let's just do it

Dark Pit:
Chance: 99.99%
Leak is real no arguments had strong evidence as video footage. But Dark Pit isn't in the videos so .1% out

Want: 0.1%
OK in all the previous Dark Pit rerates I pointed out how Dark Pit wasn't being teased as playable in Palutena's trailer and that there were zero real evidence to believe that when Sakurai hadn't done that before... AND I STILL STAND BY THAT, previous to this there were no real reason or concrete evidence to believe he was more than a pallete, when fellow full clone Lucina got a proper introduction.

I also said that if we are to really suspect Dark Pit as playable we need a precedent, and guess what NOW Dark Pit set that precedent, previous to this everything said or pointed was merely hopping for the best and every "evidence" were fan constructed, BUT it is undeniable Dark Pit is indeed a newcomer and therefore he is starting the precedent I have refered before.

Now that we have real evidence that this can indeed happen, I will not debate or doubt the chances of a character in the same context as Dark Pit. But I will never suspect every character in a trailer to be playable (Isabelle, Tom Nook, etc), so said character must be in a really similar situation to Dark Pit for me to considered anyone with a chance, Dark Pit opened up the path to others but if we compare him to other guest character in a trailer, the odds are still against this idea.

If anything, it makes me certain he was an alt when the Palutena video was made and then was given a roster spot later.

This is the most likely scenario and this makes tons of sense, Dark Pit was most likely a palette by the time of Palutena's reveal but got a spot last minute for any reason.

Now I will explain myself about my low want, I am not a sore loser Dark Pit is in the game, my low want is the same argument as before.

He is just to similar to Pit. Conceptually speaking, design wise, let's be real Dark Pit is just a recolor given a slot. Even in the unlikely scenario Dark Pit is NOT a full clone and has some uniqueseness to him, I wouldn't like him just because of this.
It's like if suddendly you give a recolor of Yoshi a playable slot, yeah it can have different or minor things and even give it a "badass" personality if you really want in the end it just a recolor.

My only hope is that 0.1% for him having at least different animations, if he shares, moveset, animations and the same model as Pit he is a waste design wise, he can be better that Pit on rankings. But on the tecnical deparment just a cheap clone. At least Lucina has her own model and a really minor height difference. So I hope that presumed staff is really part of his character and that they aren't pulling a "Ganondof" with him, but until proven true I will believe in this wrost case scenario.

That said I will try Dark Pit like every character, I don't hate him as a character I recognoize his role in Uprising and never had any problem with him, as stated above don't wanting him in smash is because of the reasons already covered

Dr. Mario
Chance: 99.99%
Read Dark Pit's chance

Want: 0.1%
Read Dark Pit's want and replace any Dark Pit mention with Dr. Mario and ignore any argument related to Palutena's trailer and Uprising.
Simply put too similar to Mario.

And if we are to believe the leak then and already semiclones were cut to introduce or reintroduce other clones, most likely full clones if the full clone theory placement in the roster is to be believed. I don't get it

More characters
Chance: 99%
Even the leaker stated the roster wasn't the full roster

Want: 100%
I am ok with more characters and even clones or semiclones as long as they can't pass as another character pallete.

Dark Pit has become one of my favorite modern Nintendo characters. He is one of the best antagonists

Just sharing my perspective here

Funny I don't see Dark Pit as an antagonist he is more of a rival to Pit, in any part of the game he is implied to be really evil and even is his priority to take down the underworld forces before Pit (helping Pit defeading Pandora and the Underworld Gate Keeper)

He helped Pit in defeating the Chaos Kin and stated that going after the soul of a goddess is just vile, later he rescues Pit from Hades' Heart and never complained about lossing Pandora's powers because of the rewind spring incident when he agrees with both Palutena and Viridi that Hades needs to be stopped.

In the end he is granted Palutena's power of flight and fly alongside Pit for some seconds. So I must say Dark Pit is not evil or an antagonist I might go and call him good. He doesn't do anything evil in the whole game only confronting Pit in battle twice something a rival would do.

 

[Morbi]

Well let's just do it

Dark Pit:
Chance: 99.99%
Leak is real no arguments had strong evidence as video footage. But Dark Pit isn't in the videos so .1% out

Want: 0.1%
OK in all the previous Dark Pit rerates I pointed out how Dark Pit wasn't being teased as playable in Palutena's trailer and that there were zero real evidence to believe that when Sakurai hadn't done that before... AND I STILL STAND BY THAT, previous to this there were no real reason or concrete evidence to believe he was more than a pallete, when fellow full clone Lucina got a proper introduction.

I also said that if we are to really suspect Dark Pit as playable we need a precedent, and guess what NOW Dark Pit set that precedent, previous to this everything said or pointed was merely hopping for the best and every "evidence" were fan constructed, BUT it is undeniable Dark Pit is indeed a newcomer and therefore he is starting the precedent I have refered before.

Now that we have real evidence that this can indeed happen, I will not debate or doubt the chances of a character in the same context as Dark Pit. But I will never suspect every character in a trailer to be playable (Isabelle, Tom Nook, etc), so said character must be in a really similar situation to Dark Pit for me to considered anyone with a chance, Dark Pit opened up the path to others but if we compare him to other guest character in a trailer, the odds are still against this idea.


This is the most likely scenario and this makes tons of sense, Dark Pit was most likely a palette by the time of Palutena's reveal but got a spot last minute for any reason.

Now I will explain myself about my low want, I am not a sore loser Dark Pit is in the game, my low want is the same argument as before.

He is just to similar to Pit. Conceptually speaking, design wise, let's be real Dark Pit is just a recolor given a slot. Even in the unlikely scenario Dark Pit is NOT a full clone and has some uniqueseness to him, I wouldn't like him just because of this.
It's like if suddendly you give a recolor of Yoshi a playable slot, yeah it can have different or minor things and even give it a "badass" personality if you really want in the end it just a recolor.

My only hope is that 0.1% for him having at least different animations, if he shares, moveset, animations and the same model as Pit he is a waste design wise, he can be better that Pit on rankings. But on the tecnical deparment just a cheap clone. At least Lucina has her own model and a really minor height difference. So I hope that presumed staff is really part of his character and that they aren't pulling a "Ganondof" with him, but until proven true I will believe in this wrost case scenario.

That said I will try Dark Pit like every character, I don't hate him as a character I recognoize his role in Uprising and never had any problem with him, as stated above don't wanting him in smash is because of the reasons stated above.

Dr. Mario
Chance: 99.99%
Read Dark Pit's chance

Want: 0.1%
Read Dark Pit's want and replace any Dark Pit mention with Dr. Mario and ignore any argument related to Palutena's trailer and Uprising.
Simply put to similar to Mario.

And if we are to believe the leak then and already semiclones were cut to introduce or reintroduce other clones, must likely full clones if the full clone theory placement in the roster is to be believed. I don't get it

More characters
Chance: 99%
Even the leaker stated the roster wasn't the full roster

Want: 100%
I am ok with more characters and even clones or semiclones as long as they can pass as another character pallete.


Just sharing my perspective here

Funny I don't see Dark Pit as an antagonist he is more of a rival to Pit, in any part of the game he is implied to be really evil and even is his priority to take down the underworld forces before Pit (helping Pit defeading Pandora and the Underwolrd Gate Keeper)

He helped Pit in defeating the Chaos Kin and stated that going after the soul of a goddess is just vile, later he rescues Pit from Hades' Heart and never complained about lossing Pandora's powers because of the rewind spring incident when he agrees with both Palutena and Viridi that Hades needs to be stopped.

In the end he is granted Palutena's power of flight and fly alongside Pit for some seconds. So I must say Dark Pit is not evil or an antagonist I might go and call him good. He doesn't do anything evil in the whole game only confronting Pit in battle twice something a rival would do.

I agree with this sentiment wholeheartedly, it is of my belief that "antagonist" is synonymous with "rival." Usually I use the word as an all encompassing phrase as I dislike distinguishing characters as: anti-heroes, villains, rivals, enemies, etc.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance for all 3: 100%
The leak is real, and All Star mode was locked. Plus, I doubt that we're only getting Mewtwo. (He could count as a newcomer for some as well) As for Dark Pit, besides the leak being real, this: Dark Pit was teased in Palutena's trailer. He has the same status as Mr. Game and Watch, and don't say "but he was a veteran" because Charizard. And Mii Fighter got no intro or trailer on the official site.

Note: I don't take want points off for being clones/taking up roster spots, because clones take as much development time as 1/6th of 1 unique character, and they diversify the roster.

Dr. Mario Want: 50%
Only because I think we get the Mario Tornado, and he should be easy to make. That said, it takes attention away from my boy Mario, and I like the FLUDD's variations, which Dr. Mario will likely not have. Why can't I have both?

More Newcomers Want: 100%
Of course!

Dark Pit Want: 100%
Now, a lot of people hate Dark Pit, just because he takes up a slot and Sakurai Uprising bias, not to mention he is a palette swap of Pit made into a character. I don't care about that at all. Dark Pit diversifies the roster. He is also my favorite character in Uprising. And no, its not because he is "edgy". I liked him because of the concept, how he seems to think for himself, and how he interacts with other characters (that pre-boss rallying cry though).

 

[T-Hell]

Dark Pit & Dr Mario chances: abstained..
Dark Pit & Dr Mario want: both 0%

More newcomers chances: 100%
More newcomers want: 200%