Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[UnicornDemon]

I think it's safe to say Ridley's chances just plummeted to zero. That shadow tease of Metal Face at the end of the Shulk trailer...

Also, abstain from everything except Parabo and Satebo, whose ratings are:
Chance- 0.05%
Want- 0%

 

[Deleted member]

Whew... must stay calm... stay focused...
But! I'm glad! I'm hyped! SHULK IS IN THE GAME! THE FUTURE BELONGED TO HIM!
Ahem. I'll save that for his Satisfaction day... whenever that will be.
Anyway, the Directory has been updated.

Use Your Villager/Robin
Chance: 0%
I don't think that such a thing will happen. Never mind the fact that Robin has different sizes (which would complicate balance), but I don't think that you would be able to have Smash read your data from Awakening or New Leaf to be able to use your Robin or Villager.
Want: 100%
I don't have New Leaf and my Robin in Awakening is nothing special.

Spoiler

Yeah. I just gave him the 4th eyes option while everything was default.

What this concept does appeal to me is a possibly changed Final Smash. I much, much rather have my spouse (which in this case is Tharja) or one of my children (Morgan or Noire) help me land the final blows than Chrom. It would honestly make the Final Smash a bit more, well, meaningful to me and more awesome.
Such a thing would never happen and there would be more model work to be done, but I would love for it to happen.

Destiny
Chance: 50%
I can see this one go either way. Nothing more or less really.
Want: 100%
While I prefer songs like Conquest and Divine Decree, this is still an amazing song.

Parebo & Satebo
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes
Looks like I don't have a choice!
They are pretty forgotten and I have no desire for them.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to watch the Shulk trailer... again.

 

[Xenigma]

No satisfaction scores for Shulk just yet. That would be redundant considering we're set to rate everyone next week as part of our farewell. We hold our course for the time being.

Glad to hear it, was going to suggest precisely that!

Use Your Own Villager / Robin - 1%
Given both Animal Crossing: New Leaf and Fire Emblem: Awakening are both 3DS games and that neither game's customizations are terribly complex (with perhaps restrictions like no custom AC clothing), I could see this working out. That said, it seems like quite a bit of work for not a lot of pay-off, it mandates SSB4 3DS be able to read save data for two other games, and I'm not sure they would want to support it for the Wii U version given they would have to update all those extra assets for HD. I'm going to go for plausible, but nonetheless extremely unlikely.
Want - 50% - I'm torn. I think it would be awesome to be able to use my own Robin in particular (I admittedly don't own New Leaf), but I'm far less thrilled about them spending that much development time implementing this. Meh?

"Destiny" - 50%
I don't normally like to rate songs, but I've played plenty of Awakening, so I feel safe in saying "Destiny" is a really iconic song in the game and that it fits Smash perfectly. No guarantee it'll be in (especially on 3DS with only 2 songs per stage), but I could easily see it happening.
Want - 100% - This would be a wonderful inclusion.

Parebo and Satebo - 0%
With Duck Hunt Dog now virtually confirmed as our expected retro (finally!) and Chorus Men rumored to be yet another oddball newcomer, I believe we can safely say these obscure mascots have absolutely no chance of making the roster.
Want - 0% - No thank you.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Use Your Villager/Robin: 0%
I think it's safe from the customization screens that it's not happening.

"Destiny": 35%
3DS track limitations and plentiful tracks from elsewhere in the very long series...

Parebo and Satebo: 0%
Yeah, no.


Want for all: 0%
None of these interest me, and given that this game has slipped cleanly out of my top ten (and possibly out of my top 15) hype games now I can't even go with a 'it's a thing' as a natural 25%.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Use Your Own Villiager/Robin: 25%
Want: 75%

Destiny: 75%
Want: 100% Anything from Awakening (besides Lucina) is cool in my book.

Parabo and Skatebo: 0%
Want: 0%

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I remain abstain for these. However, I will nominate Reyn if possible

 

[Rockaphin]

Use your own Villager/Robin:
Chance: 15%
Want: 100%

If this happens, I think it will only be available on the Wii U.

 

[Erimir]

Shulk confirmed... leak confirmed... sexy male costumes confirmed!

We can also cross Riki and Dunban off any lists - if they are on any - as they're both part of Shulk's FS.

That's actually the bit I like the most since they put my two favorite Xenoblade characters in Shulk's move set. I'm still confused about what the deal is with Riki since he apparently isn't just in Shulk's final smash!

 

[PK_Wonder]

Results Tab Updated.

Shulk confirmed!
Riki and Dr. Kawashima deconfirmed!

I too would like to see our updated Top Ten Chance and Want banners on the front page. I'd like to see Mewtwo included in this as well.

Here are our top ten, minus the leaked characters, plus Mewtwo. What will each character's role in the game be?

1. Mewtwo - 75.56% chance
2. King K. Rool - 60.49% chance
3. Ridley - 58.56% chance
4. Dixie Kong - 53.48% chance
5. Chorus Men - 44.16% chance
6. Isaac - 36.29% chance
7. Bandanna Waddle Dee - 27.58% chance
8. Paper Mario - 26.20% chance
9. Krystal - 25.81% chance
10. Marshal - 16.78% chance

Combined, Chorus Men and Marshal have a 60.94% chance, putting them in second, or first for completely newcomers. For good measure, our #10 in this scenario is Impa, with a 16.82% chance.

--------------
Chance Ratings:
Use Your Own Villager/Robin - 5%
"Destiny" - 85%
Parebo and Satebo - 0%

 

[Smasher 101]

"Destiny": 50% - Notable song.
Want: 50% - I don't care about the music.

Use Your Own Villager/Robin: Double Zeroes - I don't see how they'd pull this off, and I don't really think they need to.

Those other things whose names I cannot spell: Double Zeroes

 

[AustarusIV]

Use Your Own Robin/Villager

Chance: 25%
As much as I would like this to happen, I unfortunately doubt that will be the case. It might be too time-consuming for the developers to create every single feature possible for both Robin and Villager, and that they probably already have made alt. looks for them in the vanilla game.

Want: 100% (especially Robin)
But why the hell not? I would love it if you could import the look of your character in the game! I'll be honest, I disliked the default look for M!Robin in Fire Emblem Awakening, and while his Smash look improved on it a little bit, it's still a little generic. If I could make a new design for him in Smash, I would do so in a heartbeat.

"Destiny"

Chance: 50%

Want: 100%

 

[Burigu]

Use your own Robin/ Villager
Chance: 1%
The Mii fighters seems to be the only exception when deep customs are into account, I don't expect this to happen the Villager kind of already deconfimed this by all those specific palletes. Robin is likely to get this same treatment.

Want: 50%
If this is in I am fine, if this option isn't in I am still fine

Destiny
Chance: 12.5%
Many great songs in Fire Emblem to really pick this one.

Want: 0%
It's an OK song to me these two are WAY much more fitting

This one even has the iconic Fire Emblem theme remixed in there

This one is just epic for fights

Parebo etc
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Edit: hyped that I might get the chance to enjoy Xenoblade on the 3ds now!

 

[The Light Music Club]

Use your own Villager/Robin:
Chance: 15%
Want: 0% - Since I own Awakening, I don't want to be judged by the fact I'll only be using female Robin.

Destiny:
Chance: 50% - I have no idea
Want: 20% - OK song, but I really just want RD/PoR music.

Parebo and Satebo:
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Play as your own Robin/Villager:
Chance: 0%
It kind of seems unneccesary for them to make alt costumes for Villager and Robin.
Want: abstain

Abstain for everything else. I feel lazy today.

 

[Pureownege75]

Use your own Villager/Robin​

Chance: 5%
Seems like a technical nightmare that they wouldn't go through the hassle of doing... then again playable Miis are a thing, so maybe it's not unreasonable. I still doubt it'd happen though

Want: 50%
This is an awesome concept I had never considered before today. I'd love to see it, but wouldn't count on it, nor would I be upset at it's absence

Destiny​

Chance: Abstain

Want: Abstain
I really need to play Awakening. I own it, but am not very far. The music never really struck me as anything special though to be honest

Parebo and Satebo​

Chance: 0%
Rating characters is useless at this point

Want: 0%
Never heard of them

 

[colder_than_ice]

Use your own Villager/Robin
Chance: 1% - This would have been confirmed a long time ago.
Want: 50% - My Robin isn't much different from the default version anyway and I don't play New Leaf. As for creating new characters, Mii Fighters give me all the tools I need.

Destiny
Chance: 40% - I don't think it's the most likely song.
Want: 40% - I'm not particularly fond of it either.

Parebo & Satebo
Chance: 0% - They have none.
Want: 0% - I'm not a fan.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dude @8-bit Man , you should be rating this already, you're the one who nominated Parebo and Satebo.

 

[Glaciacott]

And that friends, is precisely why I didn't want to rate Shulk after the leak. Now it feels like we'll have to wait forever to rate satisfaction and I'm hyped now. Bleh.
Also, Metal Face pretty much confirmed as Boss so we got that as well. Also, don't forget the song! We got that too! I'd say in terms of Xenoblade we actually got everything down pretty well, aside from Dunban appearing (we did consider Riki!)

Today stuff

Use your own Robin/Villager
Chance - 5%
To be clear I don't see this as part of the customization features within the game. That'd be stupid, that's why miis are there. I had more in mind the idea of them using amiibos to deliver information cross-games, and from 3DS to Wii U, something they've shared is pretty much the plan anyway. The real doubt I have about this is the fact Awakening and New Leaf were made long before the whole amiibo possibility thing, but ... wouldn't a DLC patch be able to deal with that?
I don't think it's as impossible to do as people say, either. If I can pull up an SD card to my Wii U and have it load a skin I put in there to a character in the game, that some random fan coded, I don't see why it would suddenly be super difficult to have a program or something to save the animal crossing/Fire emblem data into the SD card in a way the Smash Bros file can read it. It's definitely possible, and watch, if Nintendo doesn't do it themselves, the fans will be hacking that thing anyway and doing it themselves.
Frankly, my chance would be higher but I'm keeping it low since I don't imagine something like this being present by release of the 3DS version.

Want - 100%
The joy of Robin and Villager is that those were the characters you controlled in the games, and while I personally like the current designs for both, the love for the characters would grow exponentially if I were able to use the avatars from my games since it was with them I enjoyed hour upon hour of gameplay.
Of course, there's the logistical limit of you can't have every clothing option from animal crossing, and you can't change the voice and height of Robin, but aside from those, being able to have the face and hair of your own version of the character just goes a long way.

Parebo and Satebo
zeroes

Destiny
Abstain ... unsure on how to rate

 

[Groose]

I remain abstain for these. However, I will nominate Reyn if possible

Because the game is in its last few days, we're no longer accepting nominations. Sorry!

And that friends, is precisely why I didn't want to rate Shulk after the leak. Now it feels like we'll have to wait forever to rate satisfaction and I'm hyped now. Bleh.
Also, Metal Face pretty much confirmed as Boss so we got that as well. Also, don't forget the song! We got that too! I'd say in terms of Xenoblade we actually got everything down pretty well, aside from Dunban appearing (we did consider Riki!)

1) Don't worry. Satisfaction scores start in less than a week. Four days, if I remember the schedule I drafted up. Granted, Shulk might not be for a bit after that, as we're spending multiple days on Satisfaction.

2) Metal Face was confirmed to appear. However, his role has not been revealed. It's technically possible he could be an Assist or something of that nature. Being as conservative as I am, I say we don't jump the gun on that yet.

3) Yeah, "You Will Know Our Names" is definitely confirmed. Nice call.

4) We did actually consider Dunban. He's gotten handful of nominations before, but the movement never really lasts. At least it isn't like Greninja, who never received a single nomination.

Abstain "Destiny" Chance
I have a good grasp of Awakening matters, but I don't know enough to make a satisfactory judgement here.

Everything Else: 0%
1) Can't say I want "Destiny" because I don't think it's all that great of a song, and "Fire Emblem (Melee)" is so good that I'll probably never even consider listening to something else on the stages on which it is selectable.

2) Parebo and Satebo would have earned a 0.01% score from me last week. With Duck Hunt Dog on the roster and slots seemingly nonexistent, though, they stand no chance whatsoever.

3) That's fine by me, as I've only ever vaguely heard of them before. Smash is about seeing characters you know and love duke it out, and they just don't fit my personal description.

4) Based on the menus we've seen and the complexity of the task, I don't think there will be a chance to take data from Fire Emblem or Animal Crossing.

5) Once again, that's fine by me. I just use my imagination, and WHOOSH! My Villager is already in the game. Problem solved in a manner that requires no effort.

DAY OVER

THE WORLD KEEPS ON TURNING...​

 

[Groose]

Parebo and Satebo
0.55% chance
2.63% want
Poor guys. They were one of the last characters we're ever going to have the honor of rating, and they ranked among the very bottom in both categories. That's kind of depressing, actually.

"Destiny"
62.50% chance
68.82% want
This song is destined to be in this game, just as you are destined to like it. The passage of fate is set.

Use Your Own Villager or Robin
4.79% chance
47.72% want
Although everyone agreed that it was pretty darn unlikely, its want score remained a point of contention. It scored very close to even in that regard, and it leaned toward the negative side. Also, I am too burnt out at this point to do anything other than state the obvious. Obviously.

Today ends our cleanup of the nominations list. We'll have our first ever Resident Evil discussion and talk about Jill Valentine; we'll do one final song in "Moonstruck Blossom," we'll discuss costumes for a final time with the idea of Galacta Knight and Dark Meta Knight costumes, and we'll even toss in discussion of a Micaiah AT for good measure. What are you waiting for? RATE. THEIR. CHANCES!

Oh, and tomorrow is basically up to you guys, as is the day after that. I'm not keeping track of nominations formally, but if you have any ideas, spit them out. I'll gauge interest and we'll roll with what's most popular. I expect it to be stuff like Impa and Dixie, but who knows--we could discuss Ridley or even CD-i Link.
​

Projected Update Schedule
Day 315: Duck Hunt Dog, Bowser Jr., and Shulk
Day 316: Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, and More Newcomers
Day 317: Use Your Villager/Robin, "Destiny," and Parebo and Satebo
Day 318: Jill Valentine, "Moonstruck Blossom," and Galacta Knight/Dark Met Knight Costumes Micaiah AT
Day 319: Three Things That We'll Decide In A Democratic Fashion (Probably People Like Impa and Dixie and Stuff)
Day 320: The Last Three Things That We'll Ever Rate In Chance; Decided In A Democratic Fashion
Day 321-September 13: Newcomer Satisfaction, Discussion of RTC, Creation of Social and Friend Code Swap, Game Over Present

 

[The Light Music Club]

Parebo and Satebo
0.55% chance
2.63% want
Poor guys. They were one of the last characters we're ever going to have the honor of rating, and they ranked among the very bottom in both categories. That's kind of depressing, actually.

"Destiny"
62.50% chance
68.82% want
This song is destined to be in this game, just as you are destined to like it. The passage of fate is set.

Use Your Own Villager or Robin
4.79% chance
47.72% want
Although everyone agreed that it was pretty darn unlikely, its want score remained a point of contention. It scored very close to even in that regard, and it leaned toward the negative side. Also, I am too burnt out at this point to do anything other than state the obvious. Obviously.

Today ends our cleanup of the nominations list. We'll have our first ever Resident Evil discussion and talk about Jill Valentine; we'll do one final song in "Moonstruck Blossom," we'll discuss costumes for a final time with the idea of Galacta Knight and Dark Meta Knight costumes, and we'll even toss in discussion of a Micaiah AT for good measure. What are you waiting for? RATE. THEIR. CHANCES!

Oh, and tomorrow is basically up to you guys, as is the day after that. I'm not keeping track of nominations formally, but if you have any ideas, spit them out. I'll gauge interest and we'll roll with what's most popular. I expect it to be stuff like Impa and Dixie, but who knows--we could discuss Ridley or even CD-i Link.
​

Projected Update Schedule
Day 315: Duck Hunt Dog, Bowser Jr., and Shulk
Day 316: Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, and More Newcomers
Day 317: Use Your Villager/Robin, "Destiny," and Parebo and Satebo
Day 318: Jill Valentine, "Moonstruck Blossom," and Galacta Knight/Dark Met Knight Costumes
Day 319: Three Things That We'll Decide In A Democratic Fashion (Probably People Like Impa and Dixie and Stuff)
Day 320: The Last Three Things That We'll Ever Rate In Chance; Decided In A Democratic Fashion
Day 321-September 13: Newcomer Satisfaction, Discussion of RTC, Creation of Social and Friend Code Swap, Game Over Present

Sweet! Groose, in the schedule can you put Micaiah AT? I know you put it in the description, but just to make sure everyone sees it? I'll try my best to add up the scores.

I'll rate later.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

I'll rate tomorrow.
I'll also have to think about what I'll nominate because I really have nothing on the mind right now... except for MAYBE DLC or Tharja AT.

Oh. And I'm off to see the Shulk trailer... again!

 

[Thereallucario]

You know, I thought that if this leak was ever confirmed that I'd be mad or expressive about my dislike, but I don't really... care to be honest. I guess i'm happy just to see it over with.

Anyway, onto rateing!

Jill Val.
Chance: 1%
Want: 30%
What?

Moonstruck: Abstain

G/D night alts: 20%
Sakurai would probably make them full characters first...

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Jill Valentine
0% both
I highly doubt that we will get a 2nd Capcpom rep, but if we do I want Phoenix Wright.

Moonstruck Blossom
10% Both
TD is still kinda new, and I want the superior TD boss music if we do get any

Galacta Knight/Dark Met Knight Costumes
Want 75%
Chance 45%
Would be neat, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

Micaiah Assist Trophy
Chance: 30%
Want: 50%
It would be okay.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Jill Valentine
0% both
I highly doubt that we will get a 2nd Capcpom rep, but if we do I want Phoenix Wright.

Moonstruck Blossom
10% Both
TD is still kinda new, and I want the superior TD boss music if we do get any

Galacta Knight/Dark Met Knight Costumes
Want 75%
Chance 45%
Would be neat, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

You know, I thought that if this leak was ever confirmed that I'd be mad or expressive about my dislike, but I don't really... care to be honest. I guess i'm happy just to see it over with.

Anyway, onto rateing!

Jill Val.
Chance: 1%
Want: 30%
What?

Moonstruck: Abstain

G/D night alts: 20%
Sakurai would probably make them full characters first...

We are also rating a Micaiah AT. I will be the one doing the scores for that.

 

[Deleted member]

Jill "I am a member of S.T.A.R.S.!" Valentine

Chance: 0%

Judging by the fact that the Resident Evil "REmake REmaster" will be available on every relevant home console except the Wii U, Jill's connection to Nintendo isn't as strong as it used to be during the GameCube era and even the Wii era to a smaller extent.

Want: 70%


"Moonstruck Blossom"

Chance: 50%

Same opinion as "Destiny."

Want: 80%

Why not?


I'm abstaining from Meta Knight costimes.

 

[Leafeon523]

Meta Knight costumes:
Chance: 55%
it happened for other characters, why not him?
Want: 100%
Awwwww yeah.

Michelangelo AT:
Chance: .5%
I think we would see a FEA assist instead. Frederick FTW!
Want: 85%
Sure, why not?

Abstain on the rest.

There are three things that I really feel like we should rate:
DLC, due to Mario Kart DLC being announced.
Stickers returning, because the fact that we haven't seen them so close to release is downright scary.
Finally, the Wii U version getting delayed until 2015, because it still doesn't have a launch date.
Also, I totally support rating CDI link

 

[Oracle_Summon]

Jill Valentine

Chance: 0% - We already have Megaman, any chance of her being playable is slim to none.

Want: 0.5% - Megaman satisfies my Capcom Hunger.

Moonstruck Blossom

Chance: 56%

Want: 75% - I really like this song and find it fitting for Smash.

Galacta Knight/Dark Meta Knight Alternate Costumes

Galacta Knight

Chance: 6%

Want: 5% - I don't hate the guy, but I think Dark Meta Knight would be more fitting as an alternate costume.

Dark Meta Knight

Chance: 78%

Want: 87% - If Meta Knight gets an alternate costume, then this is the one that I want.

Edit: Forgot Micaiah Assist Trophy.

Micaiah Assist Trophy

Chance: 75%

Want: 85% - It would be wonderful to have her as an Assist Trophy.

 

[Glaciacott]

Jill
0%
0%

Moonstruck blossom
20%
50%

Prefer Sectonia's battle theme ... gimme some Kirby dark-sounding stuff

Meta Knight costumes
70%
100%

Dark MK seems pretty likely and I'd like that. Galacta Knight a bit less, but a recolor to make MK look like GK would be cool.

Micaiah AT
0%
0%

I'd rather see Fire Emblem lords from FE series without content yet, like Sacred Stones (Ephraim+Eirika assist?) or the Thracia series.

MY SUGGESTIONS FOR INCOMING DAYS (making it bold to differentiate from the stuff above)

Suggestion 1: I think Ridley should be the last character we rate. Seeing how he's the earliest character rated still not confirmed, I think it'd be cool to go full circle on this and rate easily one of the most iconic characters in Smash speculation.

Suggestion 2: Chorus Kids is the sole remaining character from Gematsu whose status we don't know. Given that, I think they deserve the rating

Suggestion 3: I think we need to settle one last time the situation for DK newcomers, perhaps doing a joint Dixie/K. Rool rating.

So how I'd go about it
Next day: Chorus Kids, Dixie, Impa
Last day of character rating ever: Mewtwo, K. Rool, Ridley

Gotta end big, and I can't think of characters more worthy of that title in terms of what this year and a half of speculation has been.

 

[Thereallucario]

We are also rating a Micaiah AT. I will be the one doing the scores for that.

Micaiah AT
Chance: 3%
Want: 50%

MY SUGGESTIONS FOR INCOMING DAYS (making it bold to differentiate from the stuff above)

Suggestion 1: I think Ridley should be the last character we rate. Seeing how he's the earliest character rated still not confirmed, I think it'd be cool to go full circle on this and rate easily one of the most iconic characters in Smash speculation.

Suggestion 2: Chorus Kids is the sole remaining character from Gematsu whose status we don't know. Given that, I think they deserve the rating

Suggestion 3: I think we need to settle one last time the situation for DK newcomers, perhaps doing a joint Dixie/K. Rool rating.

So how I'd go about it
Next day: Chorus Kids, Dixie, Impa
Last day of character rating ever: Mewtwo, K. Rool, Ridley

Gotta end big, and I can't think of characters more worthy of that title in terms of what this year and a half of speculation has been.

I agree with this suggestion, end it with a bang!

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Results Tab Updated.

Shulk confirmed!
Riki and Dr. Kawashima deconfirmed!

I too would like to see our updated Top Ten Chance and Want banners on the front page. I'd like to see Mewtwo included in this as well.

Here are our top ten, minus the leaked characters, plus Mewtwo. What will each character's role in the game be?

1. Mewtwo - 75.56% chance
2. King K. Rool - 60.49% chance
3. Ridley - 58.56% chance
4. Dixie Kong - 53.48% chance
5. Chorus Men - 44.16% chance
6. Isaac - 36.29% chance
7. Bandanna Waddle Dee - 27.58% chance
8. Paper Mario - 26.20% chance
9. Krystal - 25.81% chance
10. Marshal - 16.78% chance

Combined, Chorus Men and Marshal have a 60.94% chance, putting them in second, or first for completely newcomers. For good measure, our #10 in this scenario is Impa, with a 16.82% chance.

--------------
Chance Ratings:
Use Your Own Villager/Robin - 5%
"Destiny" - 85%
Parebo and Satebo - 0%

For one, that's not how chance works or you could add Mewtwo and K. Rool's chances to get 136% chance of having either. Second, Impa is already #10 by those chances (16.82 > 16.78).

 

[Erimir]

Jill Valentine
0%
0%

Micaiah AT
I'm sure we've got a number of ATs left to see. Sakurai said he was trying to add in as many as possible, and Fire Emblem hasn't gotten a new one yet. Another sword wielder wouldn't be that interesting, especially since we now have several variations on that from different ATs. An FE main character who uses magic to attack and to heal? Seems like she'd actually provide variety to the ATs while being notable enough to be considered as well.

So... I actually think this has a decent chance.

Micaiah AT chance: 10%
Micaiah AT want: 50%
I don't care much either way.

Others: Abstain

Suggestions for remaining days
We might as well rate something that is not confirmed by the leak AND has a realistic chance AND is of interest to people.

So... my first choice is to rate these characters:
Mewtwo, Ridley, Dixie Kong, Chorus Men, Impa, Mach Rider

Maybe K Rool.

Some combination of those characters. It seems if we're getting anyone else, it's probably from among those characters.

OTHERWISE

We should look at who we've seen for ATs, and come up with some candidates to rate, because what else is there to do?

I've pretty much given up hope for Ridley and K Rool, so I'm not expecting any exciting new information. I will, of course, be excited to learn more about the characters come release, but yeah.

And if by some chance we do get more... I'll still be plenty pleased.

For one, that's not how chance works or you could add Mewtwo and K. Rool's chances to get 136% chance of having either. Second, Impa is already #10 by those chances (16.82 > 16.78).

It does work that way in this case because there's no chance that we'll get BOTH Chorus Men AND Marshall as playable.

As they're mutually exclusive, their chances should be added together to determine the chance of one or the other.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Galacta/Dark Meta Knight Costumes:
Chance: 65%
Obviously, this game has an intensive focus on alternate costumes. How much was that per character? Eight I think, and the Miis have a plethora of costumes. Sakurai barely made the Zero Suit Samus costumes showed a week ago into the game in time. I would expect Sakurai to do the same with Meta Knight.
Want: 100%
More alts. Nuff said.

Jill person:
Chance and want: 0%
She's so unlikely it's not even funny.

Other:
abstain

but who knows--we could discuss Ridley or even CD-i Link.​

Spoiler

Do you think anyone will believe it?

 

[Xenigma]

Today's a doozy! Ratings first:

Jill Valentine - 0%
I think it's safe to say that Smash Bros. wouldn't want anything to do with the Resident Evil series, plus we've already got a far more famous Capcom character with Mega Man. Not a chance.
Want - 0% - No thank you.

"Moonstruck Blossom" - Abstain
Never played the Triple Deluxe so I have no idea how iconic this is to the game.
Want - 50% - I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

Galacta Knight and/or Dark Meta Knight Costumes - 50%
Both seem like pretty easy MK alternates and the now very credible Ninka leak suggests each character's got 8 options between palette swaps and costumes. I don't want to say either is very likely but I could easily see them happening.
Want - 50% - I'm also feeling very neutral here.

Micaiah Assist Trophy - Abstain
I've no idea how many assist trophies we may still get, nor am I really sure how important/popular Micaiah really is within the Fire Emblem franchise, so I don't think I can fairly rate here.
Want - 75% - I like her well enough to want to see her make an appearance, sure.



Nominations/Suggestions
Honestly there's a lot of characters that could merit some discussion at this point, so here's what I think the six most interesting remaining candidates are:

1. Ridley
Practically goes without saying. Very popular newcomer choice, rated often, subject to tons of speculation, and even a recurring theme in "leaks" of the remaining roster. If anyone deserves to be rated one last time, it's him.

2. Chorus Men
Perhaps the most interesting story of the Smash reveal season for anyone following leaks. Went from unknown to the talk of Smashboards thanks to Gematsu, and despite that seemingly being discredited, he remains a running theme in recent leaks. Worth talking about one more time I think.

3. Mewtwo
Quite possibly the most wanted character and easily the most popular rating topic among veterans, he's another recurring theme in recent leaks that's deserving of one last bit of analysis.

4. Dixie Kong
Not only is she the final recurring leak character, but she's a long-time RTC staple due to the DK rivalry between her and K. Rool. Has she finally topped the King in chances? Only one way to find out.

5. King K. Rool
One of the big three on Smashboards and a big focus of Smash speculation, yet unlike the previous four, he doesn't seem to be appearing in any leaks. Is his time finally over? Let's rate and see what we think!

6. Isaac
Okay, so I'm biased here and probably in the minority, but Isaac has been a popular conversation point in RTC, still one of our highest rated characters, and with Shulk now officially confirmed, his chances are more interesting than ever. Given that, I think he deserves one last rating, and from that maybe we can see if people really believe Shulk's inclusion doesn't hurt his chances.

Yes, these just so happen to be our top six most likely right now outside of the ones off the leaked CSS, but I guess that goes to show just how worthy they are of our final ratings. Also, yes, this specifically excludes Impa and Mach Rider. Maybe I've missed some newer "leak", but it seems the only reason anyone has discussed these two recently is that the leaker brought them up on a list where he specifically said he had made information up and was later discredited in a post seemingly made by the guy who recorded these leaked images/video in the first place. I say we leave them alone. There's also a bunch of missing veterans, but frankly, I think it's generally more fun to talk about newcomers and Mewtwo. If you want a schedule suggestion, do the DK characters and Isaac tomorrow, and rate Ridley, Mewtwo, and Chorus Men on the final day.

 

[Starbound]

Next day: Chorus Kids, Dixie, Impa
Last day of character rating ever: Mewtwo, K. Rool, Ridley

I totally agree with this.

Quad zeros all around

 

[PK_Wonder]

For one, that's not how chance works or you could add Mewtwo and K. Rool's chances to get 136% chance of having either.

No, I know that's not how it works, but Chorus Kids and Marshal are mutually exclusive, so either 16% of Marshal's chances belong to Chorus Men, or, as I did, you combine the two while keeping them internally distinct numbers - 16...% chance of Marshal, 44...% chance of Chorus Men, or 40% chance of neither, but only one of these things can happen.

 

[jaytalks]

Jill Valentine:
Chances: 0%
Jill, will you be my valentine?
Want: 1%
No.

"Moonstruck Blossom" - Chances: 10%Too recent maybe? A shot in the dark.
Want: 75%
Sounds good to me.

Galacta Knight and/or Dark Meta Knight Costumes - Chances: 75%Sakurai is alternate crazy. or you could say, Sakurai is crazy, alternate.
Want: 100%
Why not? Modders will do it any way.

Micaiah AT - Chances: 75%
Micaiah is the unrepresented main protagonist from an entry in a popular franchise that happened within the last generation. Sakurai has a great FE bias and Chrom is already a Final Smash. There is no way FE doesnt get another AT, and she's a prime choice. Also, her weapon of choice, Thani, is not a common element among smash characters.
Want: 100%
Radiant Dawn is one of my favorite Wii games, and in terms of challenge level, is my favorite FE entry. The more representation the better.

Who should we talk about democratically?
Isaac.

 

[Delzethin]

The homestretch. Hard to believe it's so close to release, and yet, here we are. Let's end this on a high note in its final week, shall we?

Moonstruck Blossom
Chance: 22.5%

I'm not sure what I think of this song yet...but its downfall may be that it's from a 3DS game. If the leaked stage list is the final one, the only new Kirby-related stage is the Game Boy one...and we still don't know if that's only a Kirby stage or a mashup of other Game Boy games. The Kirby music they've revealed so far sounds like it'd be the stage's second theme, if "Version 2" is anything to go by, meaning Moonstruck Blossom's chances are pretty much shot for the 3DS version.

It'd have to make it into the Wii U version...and that might not be good for its chances. Odds are any new Kirby stage for the Wii U version'll be based on Return to Dream Land. While a couple tracks from Triple Deluxe or Super Star Ultra could sneak in, I'm willing to bet the majority of its music--including any final boss music--would be from RtDL.

Want: 35%

It's an interesting theme, but there're a lot of other Kirby themes I'd rather see.


Jill Valentine
Chance: 0%

I've yet to play a Resident Evil game--not even 4, surprisingly enough. I don't know how well Jill fits into the games' timeline, so I'll have to use some logic here.

Her chances are basically none because we already have Mega Man. We have no precedent for multiple third party characters from the same company. If there were other third party characters, keeping them secret would be a bad move from a marketing standpoint. Plus, how well would they be able to make a moveset for her that didn't involve firearms? Unlike Snake, she doesn't have explosives and espionage equipment to fall back on.

Want: Abstain

I don't know enough about her, and I only know a little about RE. Pass. >_>


Galacta Knight and Dark Meta Knight Alternate Costumes
Chance: 40%

We've seen some elaborate alternate costumes already. Hoodie Mac, Wireframe Mac, Clear Screen Samus, and now Shulk in swim trunks. If the leaks are to be believed, Bowser Jr.'s "alternate colors" are the seven Koopalings, and Metal Sonic may or may not be a Sonic costume. If those are all in play, Meta Knight getting a costume or two isn't out of the question.

Want: 50%

They'd be interesting, but no deal breaker. I threw in some extra percentage because they would look better than the dark and pink costumes Meta Knight had in Brawl.


Micaiah (Assist Trophy)
Chance: 15%

We've yet to see more Fire Emblem content since the July trailer, but could a couple new ATs be in the works? There's a pretty damn good chance we'll get someone from Awakening, whether it be Frederick, Tiki (entirely possible now, since Phosphora was confirmed to be an AT), one of the khans, or someone else.

But would there be a new Fire Emblem AT from previous games? I...don't like the odds, to be honest. If we've only seen Lyn so far, it seems less likely there'll be two hidden Fire Emblem ATs.

Want: 25%

It might be for the better, though. If newcomer DLC becomes a thing, Micaiah would be one of the better choices for a Fire Emblem newcomer...and I'd rather see her playable than as an AT. She's actually in my top three picks for Fire Emblem DLC, along with Nephenee and Anna.


Thoughts on the Following Days
I like the idea of rating the big three characters last, to finish off with a bang if nothing more. I wonder if we should look ahead a little for the day before that, though. What about rating the chance of post-release characters? We could separate them into characters added via Spotpass, Awakening-style, that are already in the Wii U version, characters exclusive to one version that can be added to the other by connecting between versions, and characters released as DLC later on.

 

[Glaciacott]

Also, totally unrelated, but I think down the line, probably during the dead days between japanese release and western release, we need to rate the newcomer videos.

Mostly bringing it up because I find myself spending my Friday evening at home watching them over and over again.

 

[Plain Yogurt]

Don't really care about the stuff we're rating today, but for the voting thing I'd be up for rating the chance that the Brawl vets are actually gone.