Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[JaidynReiman]

Everyone Chance: 99.9%
The leak is pretty much confirmed to be real. The guy is getting sued. Nintendo wouldn't sue someone for making a fake leak.

Everyone Want: 100%
Coincidentally, these were all some of my most wanted characters. I really wanted these guys, and I'm glad all of them got in.

EDIT: I'll add nominations and predictions later.

There's no confirmation the guy is getting sued, that's only a rumor. The leak is pretty much confirmed either way, but its never been officially confirmed in any way, shape, or form that someone is getting sued for this at this point in time.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

100%s All Around For Chance and Want
Shulk: Xenoblade deserves him, he seems more than a Marth clone, seems pretty unique...
Bowser Jr: A mech character? Yes Please!
Duck Hunt Dog: Such a good idea for a retro. Most deserving retro, save for debatably Takamaru.

I think one of our last ratings should be Ridley, just for the sake of the game, but that's me.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

100%s All Around For Chance and Want
Shulk: Xenoblade deserves him, he seems more than a Marth clone, seems pretty unique...
Bowser Jr: A mech character? Yes Please!
Duck Hunt Dog: Such a good idea for a retro. Most deserving retro, save for debatably Takamaru.

I think one of our last ratings should be Ridley, just for the sake of the game, but that's me.

 

[Pacack]

First, let me rate the leak's legitimacy.

I would like to clarify that the only reason I think it may be fake is because of the following scenario. It's unlikely, but it's a possible explanation that actually has a couple hints towards it.

It is very possible to fake by a group of college kids or amateur programmers; especially if they've been working on it since before the game was revealed. They'd probably start off long before the first footage was shown. Optimize the coding of Brawl (/Project M), increase the number of characters the game can handle, get textures ripped and ready to change at the first sign of how the game looks, get the code deciphered and learn where certain aspects of the game (specifically physics) are coded in and how they can be changed.

It would be a huge undertaking, but it sounds like something that a (decently large) team of amateur programmers might just try. It's crazy, but it's something that I can imagine people doing to achieve a lifelong dream of working for Nintendo themselves; especially if it would look great even on any resume even if Nintendo themselves ignore it. Again, it's insane how much effort would've had to been put into this if it's fake. But it is not impossible.

It could be done with a clone engine. Let me explain.

Bowser Jr.:

The mech fighter concept is unique and hasn't been done before, but it is really barely any more difficult from a programming standpoint than any other newcomer would be.

Clone engine style hacking rule number one: projectiles are extremely difficult to program on their own. Use a move that has a projectile as a base already any time you can.

The first above projectile is likely Neutral B. There are a few fighters that that could be taken from, and there's no way to tell which one it would be.

This one's the interesting one, though. Remind you of anything? It leaves a projectile falling down when he does his up special.

Diddy Kong's does as well when he's hit. If you greatly modify the animations and set it to always be in the "hit" animation that leaves a projectile behind, this one could very easily be a modified form of Diddy's Up B.

But that's nothing conclusive.

Shulk, though?

Never before has a character from an unrepresented series been this similar to an existing character (Marth).

Obviously looks just like Marth's up special.

Looks just like Marth's (Or P:M Roy's) down smash modified, followed by what looks a lot like Marth's up tilt (you can see Lucina's for comparison).

It's suspicious. It may just be the fact that he's a sword user and is using similar attacks to existing sword users, but it's an easy enough moveset to fake.

Along with that, Shulk shares other attributes with Link (dair) and a couple others. He also has probably the easiest victory pose ever to make.







That said, I think it's probably real. There are not a lot of people who would put in the time and effort to fake something of this scale.

But it's possible. That's my point.

Overall Video Leak Legitimacy: 85%

Shulk:

Chance: 95%
Nearly a shoe-in at this point. He was already likely before, and this leak just solidifies him as incredibly likely.

Want: 90%
Been one of my most wanted for awhile now. Kinda sad that he's so similar to other characters if the leak's real, but he still looks interesting enough. Longer reach than most and he uses a two-handed sword. That's fairly interesting.


Bowser Jr.:

Chance: 87.5%
If the leak's not real, I don't see Bowser Jr. happening. But the leak looks pretty legitimate.

Want: 60%
He looks extremely interesting if the leak's real. I'd be content...but I'd also be pissed that Rosalina, Bowser Jr., and Dr. Mario all got in SSB4 while Toad didn't.


Duck Hunt Dog:

Chance: 75%
His picture leak isn't as likely to be true as the video leaks, since there's the possibility of only part of the info being correct...but he's likely.

Want: Abstain
I like him and support him to an extent. But I'd have to see if he plays well enough to justify having him before Takamaru.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Chance for all: Triple hundreds.

Want:
Shulk: 79%
Bowser Jr: 85%
Duck Hunt Dog: 21%

 

[Weeman]

Well, 100 club day huh?
I'll say:

Shulk​

-Chance: 99% I used to think he was very likely, now i think it's almost confirmed
-Want: 100%

Bowser Jr.​

-Chance: 95% Footage is a bit iffy but seems likely to me.
-Want: 100% That clown kart though.

Duck Hunt Dog​

-Chance: 90% Agian, leak biased, but since we haven't seen footage of him yet, i wouldn't celebrate so early yet.
-Want: 50% I'm indifferent towards him.

Shrek​

-Chance: 0.0001% Sadly seems like a pipe dream now.
-Want: 100% HEY NOW, YOU'RE AN ALL STAR.

Spoiler

RANT OVER, SOMEBODY ONCE TOLD ME THE WORLD WAS GONNA ROLL ME, I AIN'T THE SHARPEST TOOL IN THE SHED
​

 

[Erimir]

Shulk, though?

Never before has a character from an unrepresented series been this similar to an existing character (Marth).

Obviously looks just like Marth's up special.

The character dying on the bottom left is Lucina, so... it is Marth's up special. Shulk comes in from the top right after she hits the blast line.

I believe his up-special does still look similar to Marth's, but this clip doesn't show it.

Look at this instead:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzKEF6HpO7c&t=101

Looks just like Marth's (Or P:M Roy's) down smash modified, followed by what looks a lot like Marth's up tilt (you can see Lucina's for comparison).

It looks like he spins around for the d-smash, while Marth does one side then the other. It's more like a low version of Link's spin attack. His up-tilt is a broad swipe, and so is Marth's, but it has a different arc (it goes higher, and covers less area directly to his sides). You can compare it to Lucina's, and the area covered is actually quite different.

Those are similar, but there are only so many ways to do a sword-based attack... they're not much more similar than I'd expect actually. Yes, slashing with a sword still looks like slashing with a sword. We really only saw a handful of his moves anyway.

 

[GloriousDay]

Duck Hunt Dog:
Chance: 100%
Want: Reserving judgement until we see footage.

I'll be honest, I'm not too sure about this choice. I don't know how much I want him in yet, so I'll wait until we see some gameplay of him.


Bowser Jr:
Chance: 100%
Want: 90%

The footage killed any non-belief I had about this leak. I wasn't sure on if I wanted Bowser Jr. at first, but after seeing how he plays I can say I'm almost certain he's going to make a fantastic addition to the roster and be loads of fun to play.


Shulk:
Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

I'll admit, I'm not so sure about his moveset yet, but Shulk has been on my most wanted list for a long time and seeing him get confirmed has made me extremely happy. I can't wait to get my hands on him.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance and want for all 3 100%

The leak is legit

If those footages are fake they arethe best in the world i don't see any way they are fake.


Bowser jr

Im glad i was wrong about no more mario reps and his moveset looks good.

Oh as for the up b simular to diddy kong. Ok then explain all of the other attacks. (Non clone characters have a couple of simular attacks to other characters too.)


Shulk

He has a heck of a range and his moves look good

Duck hunt dog

Well chance is 0.01% lower just because of no footafe but still practically 100% chance

But as for this i can't wait to see his move set

And also this with all of the characters (and the missing 3 between 5)

I can beat the snot out of that dog for mocking us.

 

[AustarusIV]

Okay, I'll get my vote in before this is over.

Bowser Jr., Shulk, and DHD in chance: 100%

There's no denying it. The leak is real. I'd be amazed if all of that in-game footage and trophy shots were somehow faked. Now, onto the characters themselves.

Bowser Jr.
Want: 95%
I'll admit, I was never a big fan of him. He always seemed to me like a mere Bowser clone whenever I thought of him in Smash, and the paintbrush idea never grew on me. But the Koopa Clown Car? That changed everything for me when I saw him in battle! He looked so fun to see in battle and the moves he had in his arsenal (Mecha-Koopas, the Clown Lick, and his all-around mobility) were incredibly unique and imaginative. I look forward to seeing more of him in Smash.

Shulk
Want: 40%
But Shulk...I can't help but say that I'm disappointed at how he looks in this game. I was expecting more out of him when I heard how awesome he was from his fanbase, but his moveset doesn't seem to be particularly imaginative. I had this "Marth-vibe" going on when I saw that leaked footage, and while he did have some original moves in there (like the Down-Smash), it wasn't enough to make me desire him.

Duck Hunt Dog
Want: 60%
I do not know anything about what he would be like in Smash, only that he's probably going to use his ducks in some form. I really can't give an opinion on him so far, so I'll just express my feelings on the very idea of him being there in the first place: he's not a bad decision. I actually doubted that he would ever be playable because I thought he was too obscure, but Sakurai proved me wrong. He seems like he would be a fun character to use.

 

[Pacack]

The character dying on the bottom left is Lucina, so... it is Marth's up special. Shulk comes in from the top right after she hits the blast line.

I believe his up-special does still look similar to Marth's, but this clip doesn't show it.

Look at this instead:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzKEF6HpO7c&t=101

My bad. Wrong gif.

It looks like he spins around for the d-smash, while Marth does one side then the other. It's more like a low version of Link's spin attack. His up-tilt is a broad swipe, and so is Marth's, but it has a different arc (it goes higher, and covers less area directly to his sides). You can compare it to Lucina's, and the area covered is actually quite different.

It's more like P:M Roy's, honestly. If it's a clone of anyone, I actually would bet that it's him. That said, I think the up tilt is too similar in animation despite having different hitboxes and area, but I get that it's debatable.

Those are similar, but there are only so many ways to do a sword-based attack... they're not much more similar than I'd expect actually. Yes, slashing with a sword still looks like slashing with a sword. We really only saw a handful of his moves anyway.

You have a point, but it's enough to make me question if it was made with the clone engine method. It wouldn't be difficult at all to change the size and hitboxes, then change the animation as little as needed.

I don't really want to debate this one too much to avoid any arguments breaking out. I'm glad you pointed that stuff out, though.

 

[RankoChan]

I kinda fell we should just do satisfaction ratings, chance ratings for these character is rather pointless IMO.
Bowser Jr, Shulk, Duck Hunt - 100% already confirmed
-Video evidence
-Huge amount of image evidence from various modes of the game
-This week's PotDs are confirming the images of various leaked menus left and right
-Videos were pulled down by Nintendo
-Multiple leakers/sources
-Brand new professional quality models and renders for the playable characters/trophies
Honestly, if you still doubt the roster leak at this point you're in denial plain and simple. Whether or not we're getting additional characters beyond the ones shown is still up for speculation though.

Bowser Jr -
Satisfaction: 80%
The Koopa Clown Car is an interesting gimmick, we've never had a playable mech-like character in Smash before. He looks pretty fun and the Koopalings will add a lot of choices.

Shulk -
Satisfaction: 50%
I never really played too much of Xenoblade TBH. He seems kinda bland in the gameplay we've seen so far.

Duck Hunt -
Satisfaction: 100%
We haven't seen any gameplay for him, but the concept alone wins me over. Plus I love retro franchises getting some love in Smash and he's very iconic to Nintendo as far as retros go. Can't wait to spam the inevitable laugh taunt in all its glory.

 

[Pacack]

I kinda fell we should just do satisfaction ratings, chance ratings for these character is rather pointless IMO.

Doing so would be taking an extremely biased side. Not everyone thinks that they're 100% real. I, personally, think that nothing should be considered confirmed until it is confirmed. Even leaks that most people believe completely.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Chance for all: 98% (Everyone's reasoning should explain this)

Bowser Jr. Want: 90%
I definitely really enjoy his moveset, using the Koopa Klown Kar, which is the reason why I like him so much. That, and I get a playable Morton.

Shulk Want:75%
I definetely enjoy Xenoblade, and am glad at his inclusion, but I need to see his moveset furthur to make any really high want scores.

DHD Want:75%
Same with Shulk, I need to see more of him before I can give him a really high score.

 

[Andyjoe522]

Shulk: Double 100s

I wasn't the most pleased with his moveset when I first saw the leaked footage, but some further analysis of the footage done in the Shulk thread really helped me come around to it. He seems to be more unique than I originally gave him credit for. The only really Marth-like moves I see are his up B, and his down B being a counter (and it's not like Marth's the only character to have one of those, plus we don't know if it has any special properties, as it seems to be based on his Shadow Eye art if the animation is anything to go by). Also, isn't it a bit of a stretch to hold it against him for being similar to Project M Roy? After all, as far as Sakurai is concerned PM Roy doesn't even exist.
Also, a lot of Xenoblade fanservice snuck into his moveset and animations that I didn't notice off the bat at first (such as the derpy jumping animation). Also, that You Will Know Our Names victory theme.

Bowser Jr.
Chance: 100%
Want/Satisfaction: 75%

I didn't watch that much of his footage, but I do like what I saw of the clown car. I also hope the rumor about the Koopalings being alts turns out to be true. Also, that screen KO was pretty hilarious as well.

DHD
Chance: 100%
Want: 50%

I've come around to him compared to where I was when the leak first broke, but I'm still pretty much neutral on him. I'm going to have to see some footage to swing me one way or the other.

 

[cephalopod17]

All three get a 98% in Chance.

Bowser Jr. Want: 80%
I really wanted him, but gave up after Rosalina

Shulk Want: 100%
Cool character and from an amazing RPG.

Duck Hunt Dog Want: 80%
Interesting retro rep and I can't wait to see his taunts.

 

[Thereallucario]

Why do we non believers have to be the ones to shake some sense into people? jez.. cant wait till these are officially disconfirmed. You can argue all you want, but you cannot shake that it is never proven until they show something that nowone can disconfirm, like a stage or a COMPLETLY NEW CHARACTER.

That out of the way, here are my opinions on these characters on there own in terms of pure character, not leak at all.

Shulk chance: 35%

Shulk want: 65%

Not going to say what has already bean said for both sides.

Bowser jr chance: 25%

Bj want: 99% 75%
Sorry, forgot we where rating a character there for a sec . Anyway he is the next in line for Mario, and probably my most wanted. Only if they will get six, that is which this is so low.

Duck... hunt... dog? (chance): 2%

DHD want: 5%

No... just no... WHY? Seriously why? There is no need for him, there is no real want for him, in his own dam GAME they hate this guy. So why on earth would sakurai pick this god dam character? And don't give me that "Joooo NEEEDZ dat restores!" because we have enough and NO WE DONT!

 

[Andyjoe522]

Why do we non believers have to be the ones to shake some sense into people? jez.. cant wait till these are officially disconfirmed. You can argue all you want, but you cannot shake that it is never proven until they show something that nowone can disconfirm, like a stage or a COMPLETLY NEW CHARACTER.

That out of the way, here are my opinions on these characters on there own in terms of pure character, not leak at all.

Shulk chance: 35%

Shulk want: 65%

Not going to say what has already bean said for both sides.

Bowser jr chance: 25%

Bj want: 99% 75%
Sorry, forgot we where rating a character there for a sec . Anyway he is the next in line for Mario, and probably my most wanted. Only if they will get six, that is which this is so low.

Duck... hunt... dog? (chance): 2%

DHD want: 5%

No... just no... WHY? Seriously why? There is no need for him, there is no real want for him, in his own dam GAME they hate this guy. So why on earth would sakurai pick this god dam character? And don't give me that "Joooo NEEEDZ dat restores!" because we have enough and NO WE DONT!

Dude, NoA took the videos down. Repeatedly. If that's not enough evidence that there's a huge fire with all this smoke, the PotD showing the challenge screen matches perfectly with the one shown in the leak, and correct me if I'm wrong but that PotD was our first time ever officially seeing the challenge screen.

 

[JabbatheHutt]

CHances:

Bowser Jr: 0%
SHulk: 90%
DHD: 0%


Just cause I really hope the leak was made by the Project m Backroom team and this is all just a hoax.

 

[Groose]

I'm honestly really mad right now I missed getting us to rate the Micaiah AT by one nomination. -_-

My calculator can only hold three things at a time. If you'd like, I can add her AT to the list of things that we rate; however, I won't actually average out the score at the end of the day like I always do. We can talk about it, but if you want to see the average, you'll have to do it yourself. Sound like a fair enough bargain?

This Round - Abstain
Tomorrow's Round - Also Abstain
I really don't see why we're bothering. I could give 100%s all around but that's colored by the fact that we already know they're in the game and doesn't really reflect their true chances to have made the roster. Seems to miss the whole point of rating, y'know? I guess I'll see y'all in a couple rounds when we rate some characters/concepts that aren't already locked in.
Want For Everyone - Even More Abstain - My want ratings would be absurdly biased right now, based on minimal gameplay footage, excluded characters, and so on. I'll be happy to give satisfaction ratings once we get official reveals/the game releases, but now's a bad time.

(Apologies, the salt is really sinking in today.)

My apologies. I agree with you, but we are outnumbered here. I'll be glad to see you back in a few days, though.

100% Six Times
Yes. YES. YEEEEEES! I've wanted the leak to be true since the CSS was shown off, and I'm so happy that it's been unofficially confirmed with all the things that match up. Shulk was my third-most wanted because he's a great character from a great game that has great music and would blend great in Smash. Bowser Jr. used to be in my top ten, and although he did drop down a bit last fall, I still did support his inclusion. The Clown Car looks amazing--I could never have imagined him being such a cool character. Finlly, the Duck Hunt Dog is the Duck Hunt Dog--my longtime choice for a Retro character. Woohoo!

Seriously, there's a very large chance that I will main one of the three characters that we've rated today. I'm hoping to do the Duck Hunt Dog, but if he doesn't click for me I'll probably go Shulk or Jr. Sorry, Villager. You'll always be in my lineup, at least.

DAY OVER

THE FUTURE... DOES BELONG TO YOU!​

 

[Erimir]

I kinda fell we should just do satisfaction ratings, chance ratings for these character is rather pointless IMO.

Satisfaction ratings aren't based on just the character being in the game, but also upon their appearance and move set. It's about implementation, not just how you feel about the character in general.

And we don't really have a good enough look at that for any of the leaked newcomers, but we especially don't for Duck Hunt, Dark Pit or Dr. Mario (if we were to rate Dr. Mario on those lines) since we've seen no gameplay footage of them at all.

My calculator can only hold three things at a time.

Is this like... an actual calculator?

Cuz if I were you, I would be doing it in Excel which can hold, well, hundreds of things.

 

[Groose]

Shulk
97.74% chance
74.01% want

Bowser Jr.
94.54% chance
77.32% want

Duck Hunt Dog
92.21% chance
70.01% want
​

This topic has already been discussed to death, so I don't have much to say. All that I can point out is how Shulk's want score dropped after we saw him in action while Bowser Jr.'s rose because of the same factor. Duck Hunt Dog went up by a lot, too--he's performing better now than Takamaru ever did.

Today is the time for Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, and "More Newcomers." Please rate this trio in chance and want. The update schedule is as follows, and it is also on the OP.

Projected Update ScheduleDay 315: Duck Hunt Dog, Bowser Jr., and Shulk
Day 316: Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, and More NewcomersDay 317: Use Your Villager/Robin, "Destiny," and Parebo and Satebo
Day 318: Jill Valentine, "Moonstruck Blossom," and Galacta Knight/Dark Met Knight Costumes
Day 319: Three Things That We'll Decide In A Democratic Fashion (Probably People Like Impa and Dixie and Stuff)
Day 320: The Last Three Things That We'll Ever Rate In Chance; Decided In A Democratic Fashion
Day 321-September 13: Newcomer Satisfaction, Discussion of RTC, Creation of Social and Friend Code Swap, Game Over Present

 

[Starbound]

Dr. Mario: 99% Chance / 60% Want
Dark Pit: 99% Chance / 85% Want

More Newcomers: 45% Chance / 100% Want

I went through the results and updated the Top 10 list. I also decided to include the results from the cut Melee vets into the results as well. Also, this list includes the top 10 characters we've ever rated, including confirmed characters like Little Mac and Palutena, as well as the deconfirmed Chrom.

Top 10 Chance - Overall
1. Shulk (97.10%)
2. Palutena (95.23%)
3. Bowser Jr. (94.54%)
4. Duck Hunt Dog (92.21%)
5. Chrom (88.82%)
6. Little Mac (88.11%)
7. Pac-Man (81.24%)
8. Mewtwo (75.56%)
9. King K. Rool (60.49%)
10. Ridley (58.56%)

Top 10 Want - Overall
1. Ridley (80.69%)
2. King K. Rool (80.04%)
3. Mewtwo (78.18%)
4. Palutena (77.92%)
5. Bowser Jr. (77.32%)
6. Little Mac (77.00%)
7. Shulk (74.01%)
8. Banjo & Kazooie (72.57%)
9. Isaac (70.07%)
10. Duck Hunt Dog (70.01%)

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.
If you have rated Dr. Mario and Dark Pit, check to see what you've said on their days!

Oh boy... this will be a very salty day...
I'll rate tomorrow.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Dr.Mario and Dark Pit Chance: 98%

Dr.Mario Want:65%
I'm generally a fan of clones, so the Doc is already positive for me, but also we get his pallette swaps he has in Melee too, and I just liked Dr.Mario in general in Melee.

Dark Pit Want: 95%
I'm definitely a huge fan of him, mostly due to his character, and it'd be fun having him playable.

More Newwcomers:
Chance:100%
The leak already said there were more characters and the locked All-Star mode definitely shows that.

Want:100%
The more newcomers, the better.

 

[UnicornDemon]

Dr. Mario- 98%
Want- 0%

Dark Pit- 99%
Want- 10%

More Newcomers- 45%
Want- 100% obviously

 

[Gunla]

Dr. Pills/MEEEEDDDIIIICCCC!! and Pit with 'Tude/Dark Pitonetta
Quad-100s. You know why.

More Newcomers: Extra Icing!
65% Chance/100% Want

 

[Rockaphin]

Dr. Mario:
Chance: 99%
Want: 5%

I was hoping Paper Mario would be our alternative Mario character. Dr. Mario was my main in Melee, so hopefully he retains his Down-Special. If so, I'll have absolutely no use for Mario anymore.

Dark Pit:
Chance: 99%
Want: 0%

Probably my least wanted character. I already hate Pit, so seeing Pit in black clothes doesn't help me any. I know there's differences between the two, that was a joke. Anyway, I really don't think Kid Icarus needed as many characters as it has games. Especially with all the Uprising content in this installment. Even if they needed a quick clone character, there are others to chose from. Black Shadow or Dixie Kong(She'd most likely be a pseudo-clone) for instance.

More Newcomers:
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

That's a no brainer. Why wouldn't I want more characters especially if I only like one of the leaked characters?

 

[Andyjoe522]

Dark Pit
Chance: 100%
Want: 85%
His render shows him holding the Dark Pit Staff, so there's a good chance that he's not a total clone like I feared he would be.

Dr. Mario
Chance: 100%
Want:0%
This guy just SCREAMED alt costume. Of all the Melee veterans to bring back, of all the clones to bring back, WHY go with Dr. Mario?

More Newcomers
Chance 90%
Want: 100%
There's still a few characters I want to see make it in, and I'm sure that there's more to come.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

Dr. Mario

Chance: 15% - We saw leakage relating to Bowser Jr. and Shulk, but those videos don't show Dr. Mario as a playable character.

Want: 0.5% - I don't really care for the guy and think he would be better as an alternate costume.

Dark Pit

Chance: 15% - Same case are Dr. Mario.

Want: 0.5% - Same as Dr. Mario where I believe they would make wonderful alternate costumes.

More Newcomers

Chance: 100% - Of course we still have more characters to go through.

Want: 100% - I want more characters.

 

[AceX19]

Dr Mario, Chance: 100% Want: 10% I could live without him. My original thought that he would have been an alternate costume for mario tho but okay.
Dark Pit, Chance 100% Want: 75% As long as he got his staff, I have no problem with this.
More Newcomers, Chance: 100% Want: 100% The more the better!

 

[wizardto1]

Boy I can't wait for @ Morbi 's rant.
All chances:99%
Dr. Mario Want: 50%
Dark Pit Want: 25%
More Newcomers: 100%

 

[Erimir]

Dr. Mario and Dark Pit chances: 99%

Dr. Mario want: 58%
I liked playing as Dr. Mario in Melee, but I can't deny he's not really necessary.

Dark Pit want: 0%
Ugh. Sakurai bias. He looks too similar to Pit. I would trade Dark Pit to ensure that Ganondorf got Dead Man's Volley. I'd trade him for one move for one character. (Of course, it could be that Ganondorf gets a new move still, but we do already know he's not totally revamped.)

More newcomers

I go back and forth on this. The leaker gave two sets of characters... the DLC set, and then later retracted that and gave a different set as non-DLC. But he could be giving us BS a second time anyway. Then there's the All-Star mode thing. And supposedly the leaker is the guy who prepares the content sent to the ESRB, and still has a copy of the game. But at the same time, why wouldn't he just have a fully unlocked copy of the game?

The roster also looks like it has room for more and the arrangement of characters... well... Personally, if that's the final roster, I think it's the worst CSS design of any Smash game. If there are extra characters, however, those issues may be resolved (fully or partially) when the roster is fully unlocked. I've seen people rearrange the roster to look better with what we have, and it's not really that hard. It feels incomplete to me. But who knows. Maybe Smash 3DS's CSS just is poorly designed.

More newcomers chance: 66%
I think it's more likely than not, but there's a strong possibility that this is all we're getting.

More newcomers want: 100%
This roster is just one or two characters away from being perfect in my book. If we could get Ridley or K Rool... I wouldn't feel like they inexplicably passed over the fan favorites. Or at least Dixie Kong and someone else, I'd be reasonably satisfied with that. DK needs another rep.

 

[Smasher 101]

Chance for Dark Pit and Dr. Mario: 99% - The leak is real.
More Newcomers chances: 90% - But I still think we haven't seen the full roster quite yet.

More Newcomers want: 100% - I'd still really like to see Ridley and/or one of the DK characters.

Dark Pit and Dr. Mario want: Both 10% - Really not thrilled about either of these two. Dr. Mario in particular is likely to be my least used character, I didn't like him at all in Melee.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Dr. Mario chance: 99%
Be it alt or separate character, it's more likely than ever we're seeing him in.

Want - 50%
I mained him in Melee, but I completely understood him not being in Brawl and am indifferent on him here.

Dark Pit chance - 99%
Same as above

Want - 0%
This is assuming he has his own roster slot, even if he's a clone. Yeah, adding him would take little development time, but even then, plenty of others deserved this upgrade before him, such as Alph. It reeks of Sakurai bias.

-100% want if Dark Pit turns out to be unique.

More newcomers chance - 75%
Mostly because I don't think Sakurai is stupid enough to shaft 5 fanbases all at once (Donkey Kong, Metroid, Zelda, Star Fox, Mother), but who the hell knows?

Want - 100%
Because if Bowser Jr. seriously got in over a new DK, Zelda, and/or Metroid rep, or a popular character from a different franchise like Takamaru, or Mewtwo, then even Robin and Lucina can't stop me from being pretty damn disappointed in Sakurai.

 

[Delzethin]

I've heard an interesting idea that says the leaked footage was from a very early build. It'd certainly explain why Shulk looked so rigid and unfinished. There's also the chance certain parts of the leak were real, and others fabricated. Like with Gematsu before it, though, we'll have to see.


Dr. Mario
Chance: Abstain

Want: 15%

One of the more unexpected and scrutinized parts of this leak are the idea of us getting more clones. There's a lot of outcry over it...but I think whether that outcry is justified depends on the circumstances. If they were planned from the beginning, I'd be pissed right alongside them. If they were added late in development as a bonus, though, like Lucina? I'd be...more understanding of that.

Picking Dr. Mario in particular, though? I can't say I'm a fan.

I don't see why we needed a Mario clone to come back in the first place. He was only added to Melee to pad out the roster, was only picked after Sakurai decided Wario didn't fit best as a Mario clone, and while he had differences from his non-alter-ego self, Doc's changes were mostly minor things he could do without. He'd still fit as an alternate costume, and since it's just Mario in a lab coat, all the fire moves would still make sense.

If Sakurai decided against Chrom because it'd be so hard to make him unique, why would he decide to make Dr. Mario a distinct character when he'd (arguably) fit better as an alternate costume? As far as we know, this isn't a Lucina situation, where there's something as huge and moveset-altering as her lacking her source character's main mechanic.

Plus, there are so many other characters out there that'd also work as clones. Bringing Dr. Mario back feels just a little like pandering to Melee nostalgia...and I dunno how comfortable I am with him doing that.

I just think if he wanted to add a clone, there were other characters that could've been cloned.


Dark Pit
Chance: Abstain

Want: 20%

You know how I don't understand why Sakurai would push for Dr. Mario to be his own character when he'd likely fit better as an alternate costume. The same goes double for Pittoo. Aside from his hair and tunic colors, he's physically identical to Pit. It'd be a huge stretch to justify giving him different stats than Pit, which is the main way to differentiate clones in the first place.

And then there's also the question of: if you want a clone, why Dark Pit in particular? Why not bring back Lucas or Wolf, or add Impa as a Sheik semi-clone (for what it's worth, I could also see her as a non-clone if she made it in)? Or hell, I could even seen something unpredictable like Mienshao as a Lucario semi-clone with more agility and better reach on tilts and aerials but no aura boost. Throwing Dark Pit into the mix reeks of personal bias.

That said...if Pittoo's character art is the real thing, he might not be as clone-ish after all. There's a glimpse of the Dark Pit Staff in the art, and the staves in Uprising work way differently than bows. Even still, I wouldn't be the most impressed by his inclusion.


More Unrevealed Newcomers
Chance: 90%

This one I can still discuss, because it'd have a very good chance even if the leak was true. In the mix of the menu screenshots, there's one of All-Star Mode's description on the bottom screen...with a lock icon on the top left corner. All-Star Mode only unlocked in Melee and Brawl when you unlocked the entire roster, and it doesn't seem likely to change now. If that screen is real, and the CSS is real, it means that there are still newcomers not shown in the leak.

There're still other possibilities, though. That menu shot could've been from earlier in gameplay, or it could be faked. If either of those are true, we might know the final roster after all. But on the other hand, there's the chance the CSS is the fake one, or even the entire leak could be an extremely elaborate hoax.

Sure, it's a reach, but didn't we all think the Gematsu leak was true at least at some point in time, with debate on whether changes had been made after the leak? Now every part of it after the first is under question. That could still happen here.

Want: 100%

I still hope we see some more surprises. Don't we all have a few characters we still want to see make it in?

 

[Morbi]

Here... my friends, is the one piece of evidence that was ignored. This would have given us the answer far before any "leak."

Times I posted this paragraph from the article: 34

However, even though Lucina shares her physical stats and techniques with Marth, the characteristics of their attacks differ. When two such similar characters function in an even slightly different manner, I give them a separate spot on the roster since that will affect battle records and whatnot. In that sense, you could say she was very lucky to join the fray!

Dr. Mario Chance: 50%

Dr. Mario is quite the difficult character to rate, based on Sakurai's prior assertions, the only notion that becomes blatantly overt is that he is not a costume. If Dr. Mario is in the game, it is not as a costume. Objectively speaking, of course. That would directly contradict his statements regarding clones that are suitable as costumes due to the apt precedent that indicates that Dr. Mario is most certainly his own character. It is possible, but given the development time left once he made that proclamation.. I doubt he would choose to disregard it. That would insinuate that Dr. Mario was not finished at that point. Possible, but not probable. Dr. Mario is his own character and notable differences include: he cannot utilize F.L.U.D.D and his pills are a very prominent aspect of the character, something that Mario does not use outside of the Dr. Mario franchise.

Dr. Mario Want: 100%

Dr. Mario was a character I played frequently in Melee. In fact, he is the only Mario character; aside from Rosalina, that I have ever truly loved. I believe that Mario is the most overrated video-game character in history; therefore, he is also my least favorite. Dr. Mario... he showed me that Mario can be so much more. I still remember to this day, I thought, based on his silhouette, that I was going to unlock a tiger-esque wrestler. My only disappointment regarding Dr. Mario was that he was not the tiger that I thought he was. I had no problems with him in Melee and his clone status was never material. He is entirely different despite the denial of these boards. I suppose it is just because he is not a real doctor, if he had a med school degree or his license, not one would be giving him any ****.

Dark Pit Chance: 51%

There is a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Dark Pit and the character has merit. The most prevalent argument is that the cliff-hanger tease must entail something more than a costume; however, he is more than that and there is reason to believe that Kid Icarus might receive another newcomer in the same vein as Fire Emblem. Out of all possible representatives, he is the most ideal to base a clone off of as he is the mirror image of Pit. I do not necessarily need to discern all applicable arguments as you have probably heard them all from me before. There are nice pictures tweeted that insinuate that he might be something more; however, that does not automatically mean that he is playable. Sure, I believe he is playable by a preponderance of the evidence, but for all intents and purposes, there is nothing extremely definitive aside from the creative director's own words. That is what I rely on over the inevitable hatred because one does not believe that Dark Pit deserves a role.

Dark Pit Want: 100%

Dark Pit has become one of my favorite modern Nintendo characters. He is one of the best antagonists in video-games from my perspective. The subtle allusions to Lucifer cement my enthusiasm for him. I am an advocate of purple antagonist, and it seems like Dark Pit is going to crash the party with purple wing effects! I always wanted to main Pit, but my sister and I have this arbitrary rule where we do not main each other's mains. This is the opportunity for us to both enjoy his move-set. Slight variations are precisely what I adore as an advocate of clone characters. Pit needed some fine tuning and I have no doubt that Dark Pit will offer that. Honestly, when it comes down to it, I just wanted another Kid Icarus character. To be more specific, I wanted an Uprising specific character. I supported Hades before the evidence for Dark Pit accrued into something material. At that point, I could no longer ignore him. The salt pertaining to his possible inclusion is great! I will always want the character that no one else wants.

More Newcomers Chance: 100%

Operating under the assumption that the leak is real (an erroneous perspective, in my not so humble opinion), there is quite clearly room for more characters and there is a Wolf/Impa image circulating. I am not sure if it is from the ESRB or not, but I digress. It is apparent that there is more to come.

More Newcomers Want: 0.1%

The roster is immaculate as is. I want to see more people complain about the game once it launches.

Boy I can't wait for @ Morbi 's rant.
Both chances:99%
Dr. Mario Want: 50%
Dark Pit Want: 25%

You have summoned me... good sir.

 

[Deleted member]

Dr. Mario and Dark Pit

Chance: 99.99%

I have the same opinion as the Duck Hunt Dog. They are almost guaranteed at this point thanks to the leak, but they lack footage.

Want: 55%


More Newcomers

Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%

 

[andimidna]

Bowser Jr didn't beat Palutena? I'm honestly surprised.
Huh... well, I'm glad some detractors came, not that they're right or anything. They're not.
I just hope this seems like it wasn't a waste anymore.
I mean, on places like in youtube comment sections the amount of people who think it's real seems to be barely over 50%
It's pretty stupid. So I think we made the right choice.

So, on to the ratings.
I gave Duck Hunt Dog a 99.99% chance because he didn't have a video, this means I'll do the same for Dr. Mario and Dark Pit, right?
Nope. Before the leaks, I had been expecting these 2, just like Shulk. They make a lot of sense anyways, so like Shulk, if the leaks are fake (which they're not), I think they're still in.
(Clarification: We hadn't rated Dark Pit after I was convinced he was in, if you look back at my old rating for this game for him they are very low. Somebody convinced me more recently, but, before the leaks)

Dark Pit:
Chance: 100%
"Dark Pit. Ya just dropped in to crash my party?"
"Uh huh "

MOVING ON-
nah.

This was a hint for him, and he probably wasn't shown because a minor clone that few wanted isn't E3-worthy, whereas Palutena had been needing to be revealed for a long time there (and was E3-worthy). Just like Shulk really needs to be revealed... ugh, this is what happens when you wait too long, Sakurai, he gets leaked.

Anyways... he makes sense as a clone. He was likely an alt, and Sakubias got some idea for him to be separate, or just let him tag along with Lucina... and Dr. Mario.

I just have no idea what his alts are going to be, Darker Pits?

Anyways, his music is also in the game, since it was in the Smash Direct when they showed of the 3ds stages.

Want: 60%
"You're nothing compared to the [Goddess Medusa]!"
Yea, if we were going to get a 3rd KI character I wanted it to be Medusa--
(even as a clone of Palutena, it's not fair to compare a clone to a unique character as competition, that's not true, but clone competition is/was a thing... we're hearing about all these alts like Alph and the Koopalings... Alph was just as able to be a clone as the 3 picks so far, but he didn't make it, that's competition for a clone. Please don't say "Since Lucina ended up a clone they should have just added Chrom with his own moveset instead. She's such a waste of a slot. I HATE WHEN PEOPLE SAY THIS... what was I talking about? Oh yea).
--Or Viridi, but that ship sailed a long time ago.
But I'm not against more KI or clones. So this is cool. I think Pit is fun to play as, but he's been revamped into almost a completely new character, and while he looks like he'll be better... I don't know if I'll enjoy his playstyle, or Dark Pit's variation of his moveset. But I have a feeling I will, so I put 60%. This could easily rise after playing as him.

Notmewtwo Dr. Mario:

Chance: 100%
Always thought he was underrated (post-Lucina) due to Sakurai's statement that was something like Dr. Mario would look weird throwing a fireball + His Lucina statement saying when alt characters get even a minor tweak they get their own spot on the roster and become their own established newcomer. Or in this case, Melee veteran.

Want: 60%
Not my favorite choice for a clone, but still, I've got nothing against clones, so unless they actually took up a lot of development time somehow, or their my 2 least favorite characters, I will always be above neutral. And these two are pretty much the lowest of the choices I wouldn't mind. There are many clones I would actually love to see and be hyped about (Impa, Dixie... not saying they have to be clones, but if they were, I'd still be 100% hype)

Exception to that: Toon Link. He's just such an easy target to blame all of my problems with the Zelda representation in smash on. Sorry.
...secretly, his playstyle is actually my 3rd favorite in Brawl... shh... don't tell anyone...

More Newcomers:

Well, I think there are 13 competitors left.
I'd rank them like...
1. Shulk 100.03% [leak]
2. Bowser Jr 100.02% [leak]
3. Dark Pit 100.01% [leak]
4. Dr. Mario 100% [leak]
5. Duck Hunt 99.99% [leak]
6. Mewtwo 75% [veteran]
7. Ridley 63%
8. Dixie Kong 62%
9. Impa 55%
10. King K Rool 33%
11. Chorus Men 24%
12. Isaac 14%
13. Mach Rider 12%
...that. Yea, probably should have brought a flame shield...

Anyways, regardless of chances, there has to be at least 2 more characters. Since they could be Wolf and Lucas, this isn't definite for me. But I personally think 4-5 more is what we'll actually get. And if Ice Climbers do return, the Chorus Men will jump back to the top of my list where they've been ever since the Gematsu-filled E3.
I think that if there are only 2 spots... Mewtwo and Dixie or Ridley. If there are 5, Wolf at least has a good shot imo.
Anyways, this is definitely something I'm counting on and hoping for. I shouldn't let my expectations be this way but I am.

Chance: 85%

Oh, and don't forget that All-Star mode is locked (also don't forget that it could be because a veteran...)

Want: 1000%
My least wanted characters got deconfirmed, keep as many coming as possible! Even clones!
...especially clones!

 

[ShinyRegice]

Dr. Mario and Dark Pit chances: 100 %
No explanation needed.

Dr. Mario satisfaction: 60 %
Even though he's a clone he's a cut veteran from Melee and is a good way to have a representant of puzzle-like games in Smash, so his inclusion as a separate character is actually a cool idea. Not exactly awesome but I'm completely okay.
I would give a higher want score but that would be completely Mewtwo-based bias because the inclusion of Dr. Mario pretty much kills all the solid arguments against him ("6 reps is too much", "moar reps than Mario is out of the question", "he was cut in Melee there is no way he will return"). I think that Mewtwo deserves to be rerated; his chances had always been high but now they will probably skyrocket, and I personally consider him as a shoe-in now.

Dark Pit satisfaction: 0 %
I think that it's really a pointless addition to the roster. I know Sakurai bias but we have already enough KI:U representation with reworked Pit and the addition of Palutena who is completely based on her Uprising appearance, and don't forget those countless items and Smash Run enemies. A black palette swap for Pit would be enough to have a reference to him in SSB4.

More newcomers chances: 98 %
The character selection screen is incomplete, and All-Star mode has a lock. Also, how the heck is Shulk the only Nintendo character in the line with third-party characters? That doesn't make any sense for a roster will all characters unlocked. The only reason to doubt it is because it was aimed at ERSB, so maybe they would want to see the final roster, but I don't think that it's absolutely necessary to show the entire roster to give an actual rating.

Edit: also note how there is an empty slot in the stage selection screen. It would be ugly to still have this empty slot after that all stages has been unlocked, and due to this empty slot it's likely that there is an unrevealed, unlockable last stage. It's a strong argument against "Nintendo has to show the complete roster to ERSB". For the lock on the All-Star mode, there is the possibility that it was shown early in the footage before the last character is unlocked later, but it's kind of unlikely. Or maybe it's due to the way how the debug mode was used to create the footage aimed at ESRB, but if it was used to unlock the complete roster but not the All-Star mode then it's almost for sure an oversight. Really there is no business to let this lock icon on the All-Star mode if the complete roster is unlocked.

More newcomers want: 100 %
I refuse to believe any supposed text leak that says that it's the final roster, and they are too much potential newcomers who deserve to still have a chance, like Ridley, Isaac, or a Rhythm Heaven rep, and I believe that at least one of the supposed cuts is actually an unlockable character, most probably Wolf because out of the three he was the only unlockable one in Brawl.
Really if it's the final roster that would kill all my hype for this game. I'm okay with this leak because its legitimacy was quickly proven and because it seems incomplete, so it still allows speculation, but this the complete roster? For the love of God please no!