Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[Kalimdori]

This is nothing more than me trying to attempt to explain myself and using a School Grading system is how I think things would work.

I grade things according to performance evaluation which is what I consider with each character. Isn't what Bayonetta has done with and for Nintendo bring testament to increasing her chances?

For example, Megaman spending the majority of his life as a Nintendo character helps increase his chances, because he has supported Nintendo and is practically synonymous with them.

I am grading things to my own accord and how I think they would play out in my own list.

This very game is called "rate their chances". Chances. Lets compare:

If you gave a test a 70% in performance, that means the person taking the test passed the test, but could have done better. (I.E. they got 70% of the test right)

If you gave somebody a 70% chance that they would pass the test, that would mean they would have 70% chance to pass, and 30% to fail.

Chance deals in absolutes, if it happens or if it doesn't. You can't rate chances on a performance system, you can't have Bayonetta as 70% a character. She either is or she isn't.

I'm not trying to attack how you are grading things... well, no. I am. Its an inaccurate way of grading chances that skews the accuracy (if you can call it that ) we try to achieve in this game.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

This very game is called "rate their chances". Chances. Lets compare:

If you gave a test a 70% in performance, that means the person taking the test passed the test, but could have done better. (I.E. they got 70% of the test right)

If you gave somebody a 70% chance that they would pass the test, that would mean they would have 70% chance to pass, and 30% to fail.

Chance deals in absolutes, if it happens or if it doesn't. You can't rate chances on a performance system, you can't have Bayonetta as 70% a character. She either is or she isn't.

I'm not trying to attack how you are grading things... well, no. I am. Its an inaccurate way of grading chances that skews the accuracy (if you can call it that ) we try to achieve in this game.

I know what you are saying. I am just using my own system to help explain myself and prefer to use it. And no offense taken.

 

[PK_Wonder]

I agree with @ ShrekItRalph 's reasoning verbatim on what they have going for them, but am less confident in them for this game.

Inkling - 4%
Want - 20%, there are characters I have wanted to play in this series for a decade. Inkling would be amazing gameplay-wise I'm sure, but they have in no way earned their place yet. If my top three are in, this want rating would be almost 100%. The game Splatoon itself, however? I will pre-order the moment it becomes available to. I might even host tournaments for it if it's as great as I'm seeing.

Bayonetta - 5% If Nintendo continues to work with the series as a licensing-development partnership, she is probably also a lock in about seven years when a new Smash is on the horizon.
Want - 20% Wonderful game. Already have 1 + 2 pre-ordered. but for the same reasons as Inkling, she doesn't have my demand.

predict:
Metal Face Boss - 15%
Rundas - 0.10%

nominate:
Marshal (and Chorus Men) Rerates x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Ugh, see, but this is like when you're trying to teach a kid how to use the metric system and instead they adamantly still insist on measuring things using crayon lenghts because it's the system they like and believe in.

Basically put, numbers and averages are completely useless if everyone uses numbers in completely different ways. And it's not a matter of "this is my opinion" since here it goes beyond your belief in what makes a character likely, and goes into the territory of what you believe numbers mean.
I mean, if I ask you to give me a top ten list, would you respond with a pie chart? Would that make sense?

Sigh, but really, I'm done with this. @ Groose , my apologies if this was extremely off-topic and derailed the thread, but I figure that it was justifiable to try and explain what "chances" are in a thread where people rate chances. But it's clearly pointless and an effort in futility.

And with that I retreat until the next day for the sake of sanity

 

[WeirdChillFever]

BayNOnetta
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Inkling
Chance: 1%
Too new.

Want: 100%
Oh the possibilities in metagame and tactic!
Are you keeping the opponent away with a barrier of goop or are you gonna jump and jump and splatter him all over?
I also love Super Mario Sunshine.
That and when the mods come I can make Bowser Jr. with a paint bazooka. (Or Petey Piranha. But still with a paint bazooka)

Too lazy to check the page before to look up what we're predicting.

Oh I remembered one:
Metal Face Boss: 33.33%
Ridley's SSB stand-in: 0.7%

Noms: Mega Mewtwo Y x5

 

[Burigu]

Well technically the whole "Chance" system is flawed since we just make up conjecture about what characters we think are going to get in. When we get down to it, characters are either 100% in or they aren't. Now let's get back on topic or i'll go post more Splatoon Gifs.

There is nothing wrong with speculation and different opinions the problem here is everyone is using the same system to analize evidence we individually see or don't see. In this scenario @ Oracle_Summon is using a different method despite being a personal preference, that action is messing with the results even if this is only an insignificant far from relevant game.

Let's put a scenario shall we
Let's say in a classroom the teacher wants to know average height and ask the students to tell him their stature, let's say everyone is using ft. but one uses cm. ( I know the teacher would be stupid to not notices but for the purposes of this let's forget about that detail). In the end even if cm works better for that specific student and is more comfortable with this method, he is messing the percentages of the class since he is using a different system to the others.

And please don't go overboard putting gifs it is ok if you put some but attemping to break a debate using these will make this thread more messy and you are not really helping.

Oracle, I hope you also see the points by other people, you might like your method, but as in the example I put above, you are making the scores even more inacurate than they might be, this is not about different opinions which are ok but about different rating systems.

When you use for yourself there is no harm but you should take consideration about other people around you, you are like that student using centimeters and not feet.

I know this is only a game I really know but some people like to get "acurate scores" based on the general perception of the comunity, so at least I hope you understand that and with that said I will drop this already for real

 

[ShrekItRalph]

There is nothing wrong with speculation and different opinions the problem here is everyone is using the same system to analize evidence we individually see or don't see. In this scenario @ Oracle_Summon is using a different method despite being a personal preference, that action is messing with the results even if this is only an insignificant far from relevant game.

Oh I'm not saying I disagree with you , I just wanted people to stay on topic and an excuse to post Splatoon Gifs.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

When you use for yourself there is no harm but you should take consideration about other people around you, you are like that student using centimeters and not feet.

I know this is only a game I really know but some people like to get "acurate scores" based on the general perception of the comunity, so at least I hope you understand that and with that said I will drop this already

Nothing wrong with personal opinion. You like getting "accurate scores" according to your opinion and I like giving mine.

They are not against the rules from what I have read either:

Groose Said:
Spoiler: How to Play
Toggle Spoiler
Every day we discuss two things: 1) a newcomer we haven't talked about, and 2) a concept, a potential stage, or a character we've talked about before. We rate both how likely they are and how much we want them on a scale of 0% to 100%. In addition, it's always a good idea to write an explanation, the length of which is up to you. For a visual example, let's say we're rating Groose for the first time and a Bowser's Castle stage. Your post should resemble the following:

Groose Chance: 1%
He just isn't important enough to make the cut. I'll give him greater than a zero, though, as his is possible.

Spoiler: Suggested Benchmarks
Toggle Spoiler
It's not necessary that you use these, but they are a good place to start.
100% chance--confirmed or an absolute certainty
75% chance---very likely, but a solid chance of it not happening
50% chance--it has a great shot and it could go either way.
25% chance--a very solid shot, but probably not happening.
0% chance---deconfirmed or not a chance.

There is no rule against what I am doing as far as I can tell. It is just people wanting others to follow an "undisputed method" of doing things that just seemed to catch on.

 

[~Krystal~]

Bayonetta

Chance: 10%
Bayonetta is with Nintendo for the moment and she deserves a serious look when discussing third parties. I don't believe Nintendo will discriminate against her because she comes from an M rated title, but at the same time, I also believe they've laid their hopes on the current third parties with no immediate plans for another. This is merely my opinion and I for one would be delighted to see this isn't the case. I don't think they'll need to "tone down" her moves so much as they'll need to omit her tortue attacks, which makes the most violent scenes in Gladiator look like Teletubbies by comparison. So, the violent nature of her repertoire isn't a concern to me. Fighting games are inherently violent affairs, and if we are trying to keep things PG, then all we'd need to do is make sure there was no obscenity, blood, and pieces of Mario flying everywhere.

Want: 100%
She's so much more than a witch in skin tight clothing, and I wish she weren't dismissed outright as often as she is on that basis alone. Bayonetta is one of the best characters I have ever had the pleasure of using. If we are discussing gameplay, then surely any objective-minded individual who has played her game can tell you that she is a magnificent fighter who is bursting at the seams with moveset potential. I'm excited to see how diehard Nintendo fans take to her content; I'm positive the majority will love it.

Inkling:

Chance: Abstain
They hail from a fledgling IP with a game that's yet to be released and my knowledge of them is still relatively limited. I can't speak on their behalf until I've seen the full extent of their abilities and how the community as a whole receives them.

Want: 70%
The inklings look fascinating and I wouldn't mind them at all. I believe they have something special to give and I am eagerly anticipating Splatoon.

 

[jaytalks]

Inkling:
Chances: 0%
I have an inkling that Inking won't be in the game.
Want: 0%
I have no inklination to see them in this edition of Smash.

Bayonetta:
Chances: 0%
I don't think this 3rd party character is at the level that Sakurai needs a 3rd party character to be at for entry. Among other things.
Want: 0%
I don't think she meets that standard as well. Has yet to appear on a Nintendo console to my knowledge.

Rundas: 0.49%
Metal Face Boss: 10.36%

 

[Burigu]

Oh I'm not saying I disagree with you , I just wanted people to stay on topic and an excuse to post Splatoon Gifs.

Don't worry, I helped you twice with the Inklings, but if you abuse images without apparent reason you can be penalized by mods (as far as I am aware).

Nothing wrong with personal opinion. You like getting "accurate scores" according to your opinion and I like giving mine.

They are not against the rules from what I have read either:



There is no rule against what I am doing as far as I can tell. It is just people wanting others to follow an "undisputed method" of doing things that just seemed to catch on.

Mmmm again this is not about opinions, this is about systems, by common sense eveyone else is using the same system, maybe sometimes we get the guy who gives a character a 65% using this system, but that has to do with flawed logic than anything else. (Which are generally not taking into account like trolls in the final scores )

In your case you are deliveraly using a different rating system on purpose for your own amusement, to an extend this is flawed too, why not use the same system everyone else is using, everytime I point you what you are doing with an example you simply ignore it.

So you like your method ok I get that, and according to you if I now invent my own "method" to rate things that is ok? despite everyone else using another? or how absurd it might be despite how much this works for me? let's say in my method anything bellow 90% is unlikely so I go and give Bayonetta a 95% because anything lower than 90% is bad, I am not going to hear people opinions because this is my method and it works for me and it's not against the rules. (Which is flawed too). Or if I decide that from tomorrow I am using the Mayan number system for my ratings, no matter if people can't understand them as long as I can.

You are not alone if you are capable of using the standard then it is better to use it.

More metaphors

• You are using celsius everyone is using fahrenheit
• You are using centimeters everyone is using feet
• You are still using Julian Calendar everyone else is using Gregorian Calendar

I really hope you understand this, I am not attacking an opinion, this is not about my opinion or your opinion or anyone's opinion this is about systems. If you give Bayonetta a 65% based on the general system then your score would be unrealistic based on your opinion but this is the first time I see someone giving a unrealistic number based on different system

I am leaving now at this point I am sure you can't be convinced how your method is wrong and unrealistic to the general perception and you selectively choice what to address and what to ignore.

I am not angry at you or anything by the way, I just fail to understand why you don't recognoize lots of valid points that so many people have pointed you out.

I am not going to continue to feed this discussion, I think everything that was needed to say was said already have a good day!

 

[ShinyRegice]

Bayonetta chances: 0 % and want: abstain 0 %
She only appeared in one game not even released on Nintendo consoles, and the second game is probably too recent to be revelant for Smash. She has no notable affinity with Nintendo (at least Snake had the Sakurai-Kojima friendship) and isn't iconic enough as a third-party character compared to Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man. The worst part is that Sega already has its own rep, the already mentioned Sonic. Also as a character according to what I read she would probably be very unfitting in Smash because she would likely use her sexualization as a huge part of her gameplay if it's inspired from her game. Highly inappropriate for a game with such a large audience.
Really the only reason why she would be a SSB4 fighter would be if Sega really pushed Nintendo and Sakurai to promote their own game. It's so unlikely to happen that it's not worth giving more than a flat zero IMO.
I don't really know the character and her game so I'll abstain for want.
Edit: I changed my mind and I'll actually rate her about want. I give a zero because I really think that I can't want an such oversexualized woman as playable in Smash. Even promotion-wise it's pretty stupid: as explained she's inappropriate for Smash given the large audience, but assuming that her oversexualization is removed so she can be appropriate for Smash (for example she can use moves she uses in her game without having to become naked), obviously people will be interested in the character and will want to buy her game without expecting a such oversexualized character if they didn't know her before Smash. And among this large audience for SSB4 that perhaps doesn't know the Bayonetta universe, there are a lot of 11-14 year-old kids, or maybe even younger. At least given Snake's design and moveset it was obvious that he comes from a mature war universe, plus Snake himself wasn't the maturity problem for Smash; but for Bayonetta, she's herself the problem! The promotion argument for playable Bayonetta can easily countered even using Nintendo's point of view, I'm pretty sure that they would consider this promotion as a marketing error.
Also I don't want other third-party characters; at this points the only third-party I could be okay with are Snake and Rayman. Snake only for the sake of being playable in a previous Smash instalment (I personally don't expect him to return back and I don't care that much about him), and Rayman because he comes from pretty much the only non-Nintendo franchise I really love and he could work very well in Smash, but sadly he already has been deconfirmed

Inkling chances: 0,06 %
The problem with Splatoon isn't that it's too recent. It's that isn't released yet! The only way for Inkling to be represented in SSB4 is to get the Roy treatment, but it's highly unlikely for a franchise that doesn't exist yet! At least Fire Emblem was an existing franchise before Melee (not outside of Japan, I'll give you that).
Also Roy should really be considered as an exception, not as a rule. Unless Nintendo really pushes Sakurai to add playable Inkling for the sake of Splatoon marketing, he probably wouldn't choose this character unless she has awesome uniqueness in his eyes or if he loves her design. Just a few trophy from Splatoon with "Future release" caption seems more likely.
Nintendo pushing Splatoon promotion to the point of asking Sakurai to add playable Inkling is much more likely that Sega pushing Bayonetta 2 promotion for Smash Bros, and Inkling doesn't have the inappropriate problem Bayonetta has, so it's worth giving a chance rating slightly higher than a flat zero IMO. But still Inkling will be HUGELY luck-dependant to appear in the SSB4 playable roster.

Inkling want: 15 %
I'm not hyped by Splatoon so I don't really care, and I think that Roy should really be the exception. But she promises uniqueness and moveset potential, so I wouldn't mind if she's playable.

Predictions:
Metal Face boss: 12,23 %
Rundas: 1,31 %

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Magikarp x4
Concept: non-Fire Emblem franchise with exactly four playable reps x1

 

[Oracle_Summon]

Don't worry, I helped you twice with the Inklings, but if you abuse images without apparent reason you can be penalized by mods (as far as I am aware).


Mmmm again this is not about opinions, this is about systems, by common sense eveyone else is using the same system, maybe sometimes we get the guy who gives a character a 65% using this system, but that has to do with flawed logic than anything else. (Which are generally not taking into account like trolls in the final scores )

In your case you are deliveraly using a different rating system on purpose for your own amusement, to an extend this is flawed too, why not use the same system everyone else is using, everytime I point you what you are doing with an example you simply ignore it.

So you like your method ok I get that, and according to you if I now invent my own "method" to rate things that is ok? despite everyone else using another? or how absurd it might be despite how much this works for me? let's say in my method anything bellow 90% is unlikely so I go and give Bayonetta a 95% because anything lower than 90% is bad, I am not going to hear people opinions because this is my method and it works for me and it's not against the rules. (Which is flawed too). Or if I decide that from tomorrow I am using the Mayan number system for my ratings, no matter if people can't understand them as long as I can.

You are not alone if you are capable of using the standard then it is better to use it.

More metaphors

• You are using celsius everyone is using fahrenheit
• You are using centimeters everyone is using feet
• You are still using Julian Calendar everyone else is using Gregorian Calendar

I really hope you understand this, I am not attacking an opinion, this is not about my opinion or your opinion or anyone's opinion this is about systems. If you give Bayonetta a 65% based on the general system then your score would be unrealistic based on your opinion but this is the first time I see someone giving a unrealistic number based on different system

I am leaving now at this point I am sure you can't be convinced how your method is wrong and unrealistic to the general perception and you selectively choice what to address and what to ignore.

I am not angry at you or anything by the way, I just fail to understand why you don't recognoize lots of valid points that so many people have pointed you out.

I am not going to continue to feed this discussion, I think everything that was needed to say was said already have a good day!

Again this is about personal opinion and me using my system that is in relation to the system that does not follow what everyone else is doing.

Chances. Wants? Is this Thread not asking people their opinion on what they think this constitutes to?

Someone might say Snake has a 55% chance of being in Smash brothers because of his 3DS game, while others think that since Snake has no upcoming games for Nintendo's home consoles that he has no chance like 16%.

My method is not "wrong" really. This is all about people who are asked what they think about a character, chances and want of the character.

My score is only "unrealistic" to those whom follows an "undisputed method".

This is all personal opinion, there is nothing wrong or right in anyone's ratings.

If you wanted to say that a character's chances at 90% is unlikely, then go ahead, but you are using extremes in an attempt to "explain" on what you think I am trying to say.

You are jumping to conclusions without even attempting to ask how my method works before concluding it "illogical".

I said that 65% to me is low when considering chances and there is nothing wrong with that.

There are methods to doing things, but this is not the case.

Again, there is no rule against what I am doing, but people started using a method that they got comfortable with. Then it became "undisputed" in the fact that everyone agreed upon it, while not everyone did.

This is about questioning people what they personally think a character's chances and wants are. Have a good day too.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Inklings! Alright! I'll be abstaining from Bayonetta, because I'll be more focusing on the Inklings. This time, I've got two views on them, one as an Assist Trophy, and the other as a Playable Character representing Nintendo's newest IP.

Inkling as Assist Trophy: Want: 100%. While I know this is unusually high to give a character that's so recent a place as an Assist Trophy, I believe it would be a great way to introduce people who are either familiar or unfamiliar with Nintendo's newest IP. Basically, it'll be a bit like Roy from Melee, who was included in Super Smash Bros Melee alongside Marth to represent Fire Emblem; giving people a taste of what Fire Emblem is like. Roy was included to promote Fire Emblem: Fūin no Tsurugi, (FE6) and it was a clever move by Sakurai. If it worked for Fire Emblem, surely including the Inkling as an Assist Trophy would benefit the upcoming Splatoon game, by showing off the main characters in Smash Bros as an Assist Trophy.

Chance: 20% However, Splatoon has only just come out of Nintendo's delivery room of IPs, and really brought to the attention of gamers since E3 2014. Whether or not Sakurai has seen the development of Splatoon, I don't know. Perhaps it's a bit too recent to be thinking about them in Smash Bros. Not to mention, there's been no sign of them having any involvement so far, so it's a little uncertain.

Inkling as playable character: Want: 40%. While this is significantly lower than my Assist Trophy hypothesis, I'd be happy if they made the Inkling as a playable character. Like I said, she'll be representing her future game like Roy , and that would be a good choice. I believe most of what the Inkling can do in her upcoming future game can be translated into Smash, so here's my move set for Inkling:

She's predominantly a projectile and camping based character, relying on her paint weapons to slip up her opponents on the ground, but she is a weak fighter up close, relying on her projectiles like the Mii Gunner.
Move-set

Neutral Special: Paint Shot: The Inkling prepares her paint gun and charges up a projectile made of paint. The longer you charge up the attack, the more damage it does. While it's being charged, the Inkling can aim her paint gun up or down for different effects, with the upwards version being an effective anti-air weapon, while aiming downward causes more paint to splatter on the ground in front of her, which makes it easier for her enemies to slip and follow up with combos when they are down.

or Side Special: Squid Rush: The Inkling quickly morphs into her squid form and dashes along the ground, spreading a trail of paint in her wake. It has short range, but it can be used to get around foes quickly and deals minor damage to them. It's very quick, and allows for a brief escape from enemy attacks.

Up Special: Paint Rocket: The Inkling shoots pressurised paint from her paint gun, shooting her upwards like a rocket. It has very little horizontal recovery, but it allows the Inkling to quickly gain altitude.

Down Special: Dissolve: This move can only be done on a paint splatter she made - Inkling quickly dives into the ground, able to avoid damage for a brief period of time, however, she can only move around in the space that she has coated in paint, so she can't move very far if she hasn't coated much of the ground in paint.

Final Smash: Paint Barrage: The Inkling takes out a massive paint bazooka and fires giant globs of paint around the stage, able to coat more of the stage in paint than her Neutral Special. It deals a lot of damage, but can easily be avoided.

(Let me know what you think of my move set idea, and if there's a thread here for Inklings, I'll upload this same thing there.)

Chance: 10%. While I may be less optimistic, the challenge here is how recent she is, and if Sakurai is aware of Splatoon. He may or may not want to represent it, but given it's such a recent concept and won't be released until 2015, so those are my doubts about Inkling as a playable character.

These, my fellow Smashers, are my views on the Inkling for Super Smash Bros for Nintendo 3DS and Wii U. If she doesn't make it this time, and if Splatoon eventually becomes a successful product for Nintendo that they are willing to continue, I'd say that Inkling has a good chance of appearing in Super Smash Bros in some way. It may not be in these games, but I'm in full support for Inkling. Thank you.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Inkling and Bayonetta both get double 0 in chance, as Bayonetta is owned by SEGA, and the Inklings are far too new.
Inkling want: 0% again, far too new, but the Inklings don't give a pleasent vibe to me
Bayonetta want: 40% She would have a pretty sweet moveset I think

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Lord Ghirahim
51.89% want (was 56.58%)
Interesting! The Demon Lord's chances increased substantially in his first appearance in the post-Robin world, but his want has decreased by an almost equal amount. Ghirahim's popularity here has always fluctuated almost as much as the demon's mood; it started in the thirty percent range before climbing up to the upper fifties; it seems that it's now turned into a downward spiral. Interesting!​

But guys, he's fabulous!

Okay I'll stop talking of Ghirahim now.


Bayonetta:
Double zeroes.

This IS an kids game as well. Pretty sure parents wouldn't be comfortable knowing their children may be getting the wrong message. If Zamus was pushing it then Bayonetta takes it to a whole knew level. Oh, and she's third-party.

Sorry Bayo fans, I'm not a fan of her either. I can't see her fitting well within the cast.

Inkling:
Chance: 1%
I believe they stand next to no chance for the simple fact that Splatoon is coming AFTER Smash.

Want: 75%
I'll be honest, when I first thought of this I simply cast them aside and was going to give them a 0% want but then I thought about it and my mind changed.
My main reason why I actually would want them if they had a shot is because Splatoon is really Nintendo's first steps in the realm of shooters and that's saying a lot. It'd be pretty interesting how squids could work as well. Though it's not 100% because they don't really have a unique character like everyone else (save for villager).

Predictions:
Metal Face - 23.6%
Rundas - 12%

Noms:
5 x Villains Trailer

 

[HeavyLobster]

Inkling chance: 10%
The chances for Inkling to get into Smash 4 depend entirely on Nintendo's willingness to add DLC characters after the fact, as Inkling probably didn't exist when the roster was finalized. That said, if Nintendo does add DLC fighters, Inkling is a prime choice as it promotes a new release and new IP, and this would be in line with most of the Smash newcomers representing recent releases.
Inkling want: 100%
I'm very excited for Splatoon and Inkling is bursting with moveset potential. It looks like a character that would need to be played strategically, and looks like a character that would be super fun to play as.
Bayonetta chance: 1%
It would promote a game that desperately needs it, but Nintendo already had to tone Snake down for Brawl, and the 3DS version is rated E10+, so I don't think Nintendo's bending over backwards to put a third-party character like her in Smash.
Bayonetta want: 15%
I'm sure she'd make a great character, but I don't really have any personal connection to the character, so it's really something that would be kind of nice but not really a big deal for me personally.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Inkling
Chance: 2% - Their too late.
Want: 76% - A Squid with a paintball gun? They have my full support.

Bayonetta
Chance: 1% - I don't think we're getting anymore third parties other than possibly Snake. She'd also feel very out of place.
Want: 0% - I'm not a fan.

Predictions
Metal Face: 12%
Rundas: 0.6%

Nominations: Tamagon x5

 

[wizardto1]

Both chance: 0%
I will not explain
Bayonetta want: 0%
Inkling want: 25%
Bandana Dee x 5
Metal Face Boss: 33.5%
Rundas: 7.23%

 

[Leafeon523]

We've reached 200 pages! Thanks again everyone for supporting this thread so that it could get to this point!

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Inkling chance - 10%

I wouldn't completely count them out but I wouldn't expect them either. I think they're far more likely to appear as an assist or regular trophy this time around.

Inkling want - 75%

I like them a lot and I get a good feeling about them. It'll probably go up when I actually play Splatoon.

Bayonetta chance - 5%

I could see Bayonetta getting in somehow, in a way similar to Snake. Obviously since she's 3rd party I'd feel hard pressed to give her anything more than 10%. (even that would be pushing it)

Bayonetta want - 80%

I'm considering getting Bayonetta 2 at some point. I've watched gameplay videos of the first one so I feel like she'd be a great addition to Smash Bros.

 

[Sid-cada]

Bayonetta

Chance - 0% - As a Parody/Pastiche of the sexualized heroine, she naturally pushes what could be considered acceptable for Smash. At least Snake could avoid guns and put emphasis on other aspects of his franchise that couldn't work in a family-friendly context. Bayonetta's main appeal simply won' t work.

Want - 0% - Eh, overly-sexualized characters have no appeal to me.


Inkling

Chance - 0.5% - Too soon. I'm not certain if there was enough time between development for the Inklings to even be considered, let alone developed.

Want - 30% - While I am interested in Splatoon, I want a bit of time to develop them and see what they can do before jumping straight in. I'm willing to wait for the next game to come out for that.


Predictions

Metal Face - 4.51% - Just tossing this out there.

Rundas - 15.26% - Between Dark Samus and Anthony Higgs.

Nominations
"In the Space Pirate Ship" X5

 

[CJ Falcon]

I don't think a naked chick could be in a E10+ game. Did Splatoon even begin development before the Smash 4 roster was decided?

 

[Deleted member]

Inkling
Chance-0%
Want 20% I feel like it's a bit too late for Inkling's chances, we only know the game is coming next year.

Bayonetta-
Chance-0%
Want-50% Chance wise, it won't happen. Not only are the other third parties much more notable, but there's also the chance of Snakes return. Maybe by the next Smash game.

Nomination- Mii Mage/Wizard x5

 

[Pureownege75]

@ Oracle_Summon it pretty much is wrong. It's like trying to measure the temperature outside in inches. They are two totally different systems. This isn't an exam, this is a probability. For the game to work, everyone should use the same format, otherwise the results will get skewed. You are entitled to your scores, but not when you use a blatantly wrong measuring method

Bayoneta​

Chance: .5%
Very unlikely. Sakurai said that not just any 3rd party character can get in, and Bayoneta simply isn't of that level. She's still 3rd party, Nintendo exclusive or not. There have been other 3rd party characters to get Nintendo exclusive games, but that hasn't brought about a want for them in Smash, I don't know why Bayoneta should be any different
Want: 0%
I haven't played her game (but i am considering picking up the Bayoneta 1+2 bundle). She simply isn't of the caliber of Mega Man, Pac-Man, or Sonic, and I feel any 3rd party characters in Smash should be a BIG deal

Inkling​

Chance: 1%
Simply two recent. People can use the Roy argument all they want, but the fact is that Roy was part of an established franchise (in Japan) while the Inkling is part of a brand new franchise that isn't due until next year. We don't even know if there will be some sort of main character in the game. DLC is unlikely, but possible, but getting into the initial roster is pretty much impossible
Want: 0%
The Inklings aren't all that interesting tbh. They seem kinda generic. I'd rather play as some sort of main character (if there is one), that might appear in the single-player mode, than the generic foot soldier. There is moveset potential, but I'd rather wait for more info on the game

Nominations​

Olimar Alternate Costumes x3
Balance Patches x2

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Bayonetta:
Chance - 0%
3rd party. Enough said
Want - 80%
Would be fun... Except for how I would want Snake and Layton in before her as 3rd Parties.

Inkling:
Chance - 0.1%
Saved from an absolute 0 by the faint possibility of them pulling a Roy.
Want - abstain
How do I know if the game is good or not? I'll be able to decide when we do this for Smash 5 when I'll have actually played Splattoon.

Metal Face Boss: 23.45%
Rundas: 2.34%

Huh
Who do I nominate now that yet another one of mine is there?
Hmm...
Zant x5 (It'll be full zeroes I bet but I'm curious)

 

[Pureownege75]

@ Oracle_Summon it pretty much is wrong. It's like trying to measure the temperature outside in inches. They are two totally different systems. This isn't an exam, this is a probability. For the game to work, everyone should use the same format, otherwise the results will get skewed. You are entitled to your scores, but not when you use a blatantly wrong measuring method

Bayoneta​

Chance: .5%
Very unlikely. Sakurai said that not just any 3rd party character can get in, and Bayoneta simply isn't of that level. She's still 3rd party, Nintendo exclusive or not. There have been other 3rd party characters to get Nintendo exclusive games, but that hasn't brought about a want for them in Smash, I don't know why Bayoneta should be any different. The fact that the game is confirmed to be rated E10 pretty much kills her chances
Want: 0%
I haven't played her game (but i am considering picking up the Bayoneta 1+2 bundle). She simply isn't of the caliber of Mega Man, Pac-Man, or Sonic, and I feel any 3rd party characters in Smash should be a BIG deal

Inkling​

Chance: 1%
Simply two recent. People can use the Roy argument all they want, but the fact is that Roy was part of an established franchise (in Japan) while the Inkling is part of a brand new franchise that isn't due until next year. We don't even know if there will be some sort of main character in the game. DLC is unlikely, but possible, but getting into the initial roster is pretty much impossible
Want: 0%
The Inklings aren't all that interesting tbh. They seem kinda generic. I'd rather play as some sort of main character (if there is one), that might appear in the single-player mode, than the generic foot soldier. There is moveset potential, but I'd rather wait for more info on the game

Nominations​

Olimar Alternate Costumes x3
Balance Patches x2

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Inkling and Bayonetta?
Chance of Both: 0%
Want of both: 0%

Honestly, Inkling is too new for this title.

Bayonetta is third party, and even if Nintendo buys SEGA, which I expect, Nintendo would still have Platinum to deal with since SEGA only serves as the supervisor for Bayonetta now.

 

[Deleted member]

What the hell is going on in this thread...?
Inkling and Bayonetta have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Bayonetta, check to see what you've said on her day!

Inkling
Chance: 0%
Simply put, Splatoon is way too new to even be considered to have character representation.
Want: 10%
When I saw the Splatoon footage from the Digital Event, I thought, "This game looks pretty boring. Can we move on, please?" So yeah, the game doesn't interest me at all. I'm also not a fan of the Inkling's design; the design looks absolutely silly to me. The reason why it's not an absolute 0% is because they could be unique.

Bayonetta
Chance: 1%
Honestly, I was going to give above a 5% at first, but now I have to lower it to 1%.
I gave her a 0% in chance before, but there are two minor things going for her. The first of which is that fated meeting between Sakurai and Kamiya. They really could have discussed about anything, including Bayonetta as a playable character. The second of which is that Bayonetta 2 might bomb on the Wii U; this is the best way they could promote the game.
As for what she has going against her, there is quite frankly a lot. The first of which nearly kills the possibility that Sakurai met with Kamiya to add Bayonetta; Sakurai requested to Ubisoft to not add Rayman as a character, but as a trophy, so the same could have been done here and the Wonder Red trophy supports this. Second, Bayonetta is not a legendary character. She is not in the same league that Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man are; she isn't as popular as them as she isn't as important as them.
The last argument is the killer for me. This game currently as an E10+ rating; the rating probably would have been rated T if she was added. What I mean is, Bayonetta needs to be toned down for this game to be added, far more so than Snake. As odd as this sounds, she is probably too sexy for Smash; fan service and sex appeal are a major part of her character and I believe that there are attacks that she does where she is flat-out naked. I remember reading that she wasn't put in Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed because she was too much for the game and I bet that she would be too much for Smash.
The only thing that she has going for her is promotion. Otherwise, she would have received a flat-out 0%.
EDIT: Oh, and being a Sega character doesn't help either. Why her over another Sonic character like Tails or Knuckles? They're far more popular than her. Heck, I would even put AiAi from Super Monkey Ball above her in terms of iconic status among Sega characters.
Want: 0%
Just... no.
I never played Bayonetta, but I am not a fan of her character. I'm not a fan of what she is supposed to be; an oversexualized character created with fan service in mind. That just makes her unlikable in my opinion. If she got in Smash it would be a cop-out since there are far more deserving 3rd party characters than her, like Bomberman, Simon Belmont, and Rayman. She's less deserving than even Snake, who got in purely because of a request.
So yeah, I don't want her in Smash.

Metal Face Boss Prediction: 29.86%
I dunno.
Rundas Prediction: .44%
Ridley

Nominations: Dr. Mario Alt. Costume 5x

Superjeenius is doing a Blind LP of the first game right now, and it's a really good one. Since the games are more interactive visual novels than true games, you will get the majority of the experience. Check out the first case, or maybe the first two, if you have a chance

I'll check out the first two cases and if I like what I see, then I'll consider buying the game!

More importantly, pretty much everyone you'd ever want (bar Groose) is playable in that game, so it doesn't really seem to be all that important.

Groose better be playable. If he is, I might buy the game day one of release.

-Nominations: Bandana Dee X5
Yeah, I just said that, the game will be released soon.

Oh no...

 

[Gunla]

No ratings from me, but predictions & nominations.

PREDICTIONS:
Metal Face [Boss]: Face/Off- 35%- I'll be rating this one, I did propose it myself, after all!
Rundas: Ice, Ice Baby- .02%- Why?

NOMINATIONS:
If the Nominations Post is right, then I have 15 extra nominations, correct?
Bandana Waddle Dee X20. (Of course, if the post is wrong, then just X5)

Spoiler: Justification

Very soon, the roster is bound to get revealed, I say it's only fair that we challenge through this one last time as at this point it's became a different story thanks to what we have seen. And on his day, I'll be watching when I can. I doubt we'll be rating him again once we do this. With the big changes in what's been revealed and the scales being tipped, I personally want to have one last rating of him. (Heck, you guys can pull out the Gematsu Clause if need be!)

As a mod, I can be the backbone to make sure things stay under control. I'll do my best to make sure it does when the BWD returns for a final reprise.

 

[Autumn ♫]

@ Gunla You just made me all depressed since we're going to know the full roster really soon. I'm going to miss all the speculation...

Bayonetta:
Chance:5%
I think we're only going to get one more 3rd party character, with that being Snake, and if we somehow get a 5th, then it would most likely be Professor Layton, so she definitely has the competiton against her favor, along with how they would have to change her some to make her more fitting to the game, E10+ rating anyone?

Want:5%
I would much rather have Snake return than her.

Inkling:
Chance:0%
If we rated in DLC, her chance would be higher, but alas, we're not. Her game is just too late to really be considered.

Want:20%
I'm probably one of the very few people that doesn't care anything about her new game and was actually bored with their presentation.

Nomination:
Destiny (Awakening) x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Gonna make this quick.
Inkling: 5%.
Want: 30%.
Bayonetta: 0%.
Want: 0%.
Lief X5
Metal Face: 12.6%.
Rundas: 0.34%.

 

[skylanders fan]

0 for all 4

 

[Leafeon523]

Bayonetta:
Chance: .1%
She's horribly unlikely at this point.

Want: 60%
She seems like she would be fun to play as.

Inkling:
Chance: 1%
A wild Mewtwonew appeared!

Want: 0%
Can I support a character from a game 've never played? Easily. Can I support a character from an unreleased game? Not so much...
besides, I would prefer Blooper...

Your face: 13.3%
Rundas: 3.14159265359%

Nominating galacta knight x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Bayonetta Likelihood: 5%
Want: 50%

Inkling Likelihood: 2%
Want: 45%

Karate Joe x5

 

[ChazzzyF]

Bayonetta:

Chances: 0%
Want: 40%

Bayonetta (the IP) is 100% owned by Sega. While I think she would be a fun and interesting addition, Shadow the Hedgehog has a higher chance because while he is also owned by Sega, he's at least affiliated with Sonic, who is in the game (Note: if I were to rate Shadow for chance right now, I'd give him a 0% too, but I'm using this to prove my point.)

Inkling:

Chance: 0%
Want: 50%

If we were just saying last week that Hyrule Warriors does not help Ghirahim because it was too recent, then Splatoon is definitely too recent to have been considered. It's a good idea, but there's just no way.

5 nominations for Sonic 3DS Stage (Not Green Hill Zone)

As soon as I say I need to play more video games, Club Nintendo gives me the opportunity to get two video games essentially for free. And in franchises I had never actually played before. What timing!

 

[TechPowah]

Bayonetta as a Playable Character
Chance: 0% - Never mind the rating issues, never mind that she's 3rd party (although it does relate to this), there's one big problem she has for Smash: Bayonetta's IP is owned by Sega. If she were to get in, that would be stepping on Sonic's toes pretty harsh. And there is no way Sega would get two separate reps.
Want: 0% - Sorry, but i'm not a fan.

Inkling (Splatoon) as a Playable Character
Chance: 2% - Maybe, MAYBE, they were in development long enough to have been a thing when the Smash 3DU roster hadn't yet been finalized, but that's a very ambiguous "if" situation.
Want: 16% - I know Splatoon took off really well with most people, but it's still part of a game genre i'm only now getting my toes wet in, no matter how irregular the gameplay is to other shooters. In addition, due to them being so new, I haven't had near enough time to really think of them in context of Smash Bros.

Predictions
Metal Face (Xenoblade) as a New Boss: 5% Chance, 34% Want
Rundas (Metroid) as a Playable Character: 2% Chance, 17% Want

Nominations
More Mii Classes x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Bayonetta:
Chance: 0%
I just can't see us getting a second Sega character, much less her. Trophy? Sure. Playable? Nope.

Want: 10%
I'll admit I haven't played Bayonetta yet, but I am considering getting the double pack for the Wii U. Right now I'm not super excited for another third party in Smash that isn't either Bomberman or Rayman. Or the impossible dream that is Banjo Kazooie.

Inkling
Chance: 1%
Too early. Roy's situation doesn't really apply here, but Inkling is close to a shoo-in for the next game.

Want: 75%
The game looks fun. Insanely fun. I'll for sure be supporting her(or him, apparently both genders exist but primarily female) for Smash Bros. 5. Or six if you use Sakurai's number count. 25% off because obviously...I haven't played it yet.

 

[rmw6190]

Bayonetta

Chance: 0-5%

(I'm not sure who owns the rights, I believe its sega, but it is possible that nintendo bought the rights from sega in secret. But regardless of who owns the rights, she just isnt a nintendo icon or first party created ip.)

Want: 30%

While she is cool there are characters I want a hell of a lot more. Ghirihim, king k rool, shulk, isaac, and wonder red. And tbh I think sakurai went a little bit too hardcore with adding female characters to this game, and dont think we really need any more.

Inklings:

chance: 0-10%

The game isn't even out for another year. And I know you could say that it'd be an incredible promotion to the new franchise, and well have some representation for the wii u(as a playable character in game). I just dont see it happening, as splatoon's development started like this time last year, and smash's development started in 2012. Not to mention that the characters in the trailer were made well into the development(as stated during a treehouse live segment). I just dont see it happening.

Want: 70%

I would love to see the wii u represented, would prefer wonder red, but I just dont see how wonder red could work on the 3ds, unless it was just him and every attack transformed into his wonder shapes, but even so. I also love the design for the inklings, some of the coolest looking human characters nintendo has. But without playing the game or even knowing if a story mode exists, I just dont see them as top priority into making the game.

 

[Jave]

Bayonetta:
Chance: 5%. I think this one could go either way, with Nintendo publishing Bayo 2 and even Kamiya hinting at supporting Bayo in Smash. It's all really up to whether Sakurai thinks she could be a good fit or not, but 3rd party status is what really kills her.

Want: 60%. The only thing that prevents me from wanting her too much is the fact they'll have to tone her moves down a lot given the sexual nature of her fighting style and still fit an E10+ rating (which is confirmed for Smash 3DS). If Sakurai can figure something out, by all means add her in.
Inkling:
Chance: 5%. Splatoon comes out after Smash and we have no idea if Sakurai is even aware of the game. Only real possibility is if Nintendo told Sakurai early about the game and asked him to put Inkling as a promotional character. There's precedent to this because of Roy in Melee, but this isn't the exact same situation as Inkling wouldn't be anyone's clone.

Want: 100%. I would be the happiest person on the planet if Inkling is confirmed. Potential for an AMAZING moveset, great character design, and coming from Nintendo's next big IP, it looks like the character was made to be in Smash.