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Chance: 95%
If what people say is actually true, Shulk still makes sense as playable and so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Want: 100%
I don't know anything about this character and that's kind of what excites me the most about his potential inclusion. To be introduced to him through this game is something I'm personally looking forward to.
Chorus Kids
Chance: 50%
Ehhh. It's a **** shoot, I think. There's just too many quality RH characters to go with for me to definitively say they will make it.
Want: 30%
I would prefer someone else.
Gematsu's Legitimacy
Chance: 95%
This tipster doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence now that he's revealed himself to be incompetent. Forming his own opinions in areas that aren't clearly defined and showing an inability to differentiate between the sexes is troubling to say the least. Maybe he redeems himself by getting the Chorus Kids right, which in my mind will be splitting an arrow with another arrow. For now, my perception of Gematsu's leaker as a credible resource is changed. It's really due to the way he handled the information he did have more so than the accuracy, or lackthereof, of his recent prediction.
He's most likely in because of already explained reasons that, for the sake of not being redundant, I won't repeat.
Want: 100%
I want him for already explained reasons that, for the sake of not being redundant, I won't repeat.
Chorus Men
Chance: 50%
I think that other Rhythm Heaven characters have a better chance of being playable. At most, the Chorus Men will be an Assist Trophy.
Want: 50%
I'm indifferent.
Gematsu Legitimacy
Chance: 50%
I do think it has some truth to it. We got Chrom as part of Robin's Final Smash, Shulk is almost guaranteed at this point, and Rhythm Heaven will probably get some representation besides that Smash Run enemy.
Shulk Chance: 85%
Still quite a high chance in my eyes, only marred by the fact we haven't had any in game hints like we have with Rhythm Heaven reps yet...but then again, that WOULD kind of spoil his reveal so it makes sense. Only as low as this because others have mentioned how the tipster could of idiotically confused Robin and Shulk.
Considering Xenoblade was one of the new titles during the Wii generation, I'd be foolish to bet against him.
Want: 50%
I haven't played Xenoblade, he looks interesting enough but there's no connection for me to get super excited at this point. Hopefully his trailer will showcase just why this character is so beloved on Smashboards. Hopefully better than the Palutena one did too.
Chorus Kids/Men/Glee Club/Not Marshall X 3 Chance: 50%
There's a Rhythm Heaven Rep...that much seems obvious, but there's no guarantee it's still Chorus Men.
Want: 60%
Dammit Gematsu; I've warmed upto them now. They make a lot of sense accurately representing their series through rhythm and the like, but I am still unsure of how they'd be implemented.
Overall I have far bigger wants than the Gematsu two, but I'm not opposed to either character's inclusion.
Gematsu's legitimacy: 70%
The information is clearly outdated, but there's too much of it to be written off. Chrom has been considered, but was scrapped(although he did have a working 3D model so that could be a confusing factor) in favour of Robin and Lucina, Rosalina's appearance also shows there are others outside Gematsu and Greninja as Pokemon X/Y shows that this was gathered pre-decision on the frog ninja.
Chorus Men may very well have been considered, but there's a chance they're too fiddly to work with, or Sakurai found a different idea he liked better since.
However; very very few would have legitimately thought of Wii Fit Trainer aside from a wacky joke character and Mii Fighter was spot on with the name. There's too much to call it a lucky guess, but too many differences now to still treat it as gospel as many did in the past.
Predictions: Roy: 1.2%
Lucina is essentially Roy, already four Fire Emblem characters now, with Robin shooting fire around, Roy has arguably less unique abilities to pull from. Still VERY popular in Japan and even in the west he scores highly; many may argue he's more DLC material.
Dark Pit: 18%
Lucina + Dark Pit 'hint' at the end of Palutena's trailer + in her official artwork + that Smash figurine photo Sakurai took earlier in the year. Yeah, people are going to start suspecting we might be getting a third KI rep, and he may very well be a clone.
(Even now, I still will only factor Gematsu into ratings that involve Gematsu itself, but I haven't rated Shulk and the Glee Club yet, so it's all good.)
Shulk (Xenoblade) as a Playable Newcomer:
Chance: 95% - As one of Nintendo's biggest games post-Brawl, and regarded an instant classic (instant cult status, too, considering all the Operation Rainfall business), there's no way they would pass Xenoblade on by.
Want: 86% - Even though there still are some characters I would rather want before Shulk, he does resonate pretty well with me despite never playing Xenoblade.
Glee Club Chorus (Rhythm Heaven) as a Playable Character
Chance: 99% - A smash hit () series for Nintendo, and already has representation in Smash Run via the Sneaky Spirit despite being a nonviolent series? Yeah, they're definitely showing up.
Want: 95% - Rhythm Heaven is one of my favorite games, so OH YEAH!
The Rumored Leak of Info Posted Via Gematsu Had a Legitimate Source (Chance-Only)
Chance: 32% - Even beyond outdated sources and correctly including characters difficult to pin down, the fact that the leak not only skipped over both Rosalina and Robin, cited Chrom as a newcomer despite Chrom himself never being a lock, the very vague description of "Pokemon from Gen Six: X/Y" (even with Greninja being chosen well before XY's release) and bolstering the list with very "safe" inclusions like Little Mac, Palutena and Pac-Man reeks of the idea that this leak was simply a quick fame-grab attempt.
Predictions:
Dark Pit (Kid Icarus) As a Playable Newcomer: 20% Chance, 29% Want
Roy (Fire Emblem) As a Returning Veteran: 37% Chance, 69% Want.
(Even now, I still will only factor Gematsu into ratings that involve Gematsu itself, but I haven't rated Shulk and the Glee Club yet, so it's all good.) Shulk (Xenoblade) as a Playable Newcomer:
Chance: 95% - As one of Nintendo's biggest games post-Brawl, and regarded an instant classic (instant cult status, too, considering all the Operation Rainfall business), there's no way they would pass Xenoblade on by.
Want: 86% - Even though there still are some characters I would rather want before Shulk, he does resonate pretty well with me despite never playing Xenoblade.
Glee Club Chorus (Rhythm Heaven) as a Playable Character
Chance: 99% - A smash hit () series for Nintendo, and already has representation in Smash Run via the Sneaky Spirit despite being a nonviolent series? Yeah, they're definitely showing up.
Want: 95% - Rhythm Heaven is one of my favorite games, so OH YEAH!
The Rumored Leak of Info Posted Via Gematsu Had a Legitimate Source (Chance-Only)
Chance: 32% - Even beyond outdated sources and correctly including characters difficult to pin down, the fact that the leak not only skipped over both Rosalina and Robin, cited Chrom as a newcomer despite Chrom himself never being a lock, the very vague description of "Pokemon from Gen Six: X/Y" (even with Greninja being chosen well before XY's release) and bolstering the list with very "safe" inclusions like Little Mac, Palutena and Pac-Man reeks of the idea that this leak was simply a quick fame-grab attempt.
Predictions:
Dark Pit (Kid Icarus) As a Playable Newcomer: 20% Chance, 29% Want
Roy (Fire Emblem) As a Returning Veteran: 37% Chance, 69% Want.
I don't follow the logic. You rate Gematsu very low, yet think the Chorus Men are guaranteed to be playable? The ONLY thing going for Chorus Men is the leak. An RH rep? Yes! That's INCREDIBLY likely, practically guaranteed, but there's far better and more likely choices from Rhythm Heaven than a trio of characters that appeared only twice in the franchise, both in the same game.
Chance - 85-90% - Wouldn't be too surprised if he does make it in.
Want - 95% - I bought a copy of Xenoblade Chronicles a few months ago and ever since then I've enjoyed it. So I definitely would like to see Shulk in the game.
Chorus Kids
Chance - 75% - Well there is a Rhythm Heaven based enemy shown within Smash Run, so that could lead to a possibility of a rep from the franchise.
Want - 75% - Wouldn't mind them personally, although I would like to see how Sakurai and his team implemented them into fighters.
Gematsu Leak
80% - Now, I am aware that there were a few inconsistencies in regards to the leak such as Chrom not being playable, however I still think it could hold something which is the reason why I am going to keep this open for a bit to see if Shulk and Chorus Kids are in within the next two months (prior to the release of the 3DS version in Japan) before jumping into conclusions.
Maybe the tipper had outdated info, maybe he was misinformed or overlooked something or something else, we haven't exactly got the full story on what had happened on this situation which is why I'm waiting to see what the tipper has to say since Sal did send him an e-mail message to ask him questions about the lack of Shulk and Chrom not being playable. So I'm sort of hoping we can get some clarification soon.
Chance 90%
Reasoning: See previous posts over the past few pages. Also, I think nothing appearing from Xenoblade thus far is more of an advantage than a detriment knowing Sakurai and his surprises. Not every newcomer is always hinted at.
Want: 100%
Most wanted character. Everyone drop what you're doing and go play Xenoblade
Chorus Men
65%
I rate them higher than most simply because I find the enemy in smash run to be far too random, however I have heard the series is very popular in Japan.
Want: 65%
Over time I seem to want them more for their vast potential.
Gematsu.... 75%
I think he has to have some legitimacy to make it this far. Something messed up though. We'll just see as release approaches.
Gematsu legitimacy:
Chance: 0%
Looks like it was guesswork after all.
Want: 0%
No Chrom?
Chorus somethings:
Chance: 2%
I've always thought it was Marshall, and I'm sure not going to start thinking otherwise now.
Want: Abstain
I just picked up a copy of Rhythm Heaven fever. I want to play it before giving them a score.
Shulk:
Chance: 80%
See the previous arguments... there's so many of them.
Want: 80%
I've wanted to play Xenoblade since it came out, but it's always been so expensive! I'll have to pick it up if he's confirmed to be in smash though.
Shulk
Chance: 99%
I seriously think he will get into the game. And I hope he does, too:
Want: 100%
I wasn't a huge fan of Shulk getting in for the longest time. In fact, I was against it. But I finally got my hands on a copy of Xenoblade Chronicles (after saving up money from several events etc.) and... It's quite simply incredible.
Chorus Men
Chance: 30%
I want and feel that a RH rep is a necessity in this game and I am confident that Sakurai understands it. I think that Chorus Men have a fairly good shot, unfortunately.
Want: 20%
Good that RH gets representation, I guess. There are much better reps out there though.
Gematsu
Chance: 0%
Want 0%
Don't even need real reasoning here. He completely killed hype with bull**** claims and I hate its guts.
Shulk:
Chance: 90%
There are so many reasons why Shulk could be in.
1st: Tweets. A lot of them.
Sakurai's tweet of the Monado, the Shulk english voice actor tweet about voicing new games, but he couldn't tell us which ones, the Shulk japanese voice actor tweet about "good news", the Xenoblade writer retweet. All of this could easily mean that Shulk is in Smash.
2nd: Nintendo has plans with Xenoblade.
Xenoblade X. After Xenoblade's acclaim, Nintendo continues the series with a spiritual sequel. Putting Shulk in is an excellent idea to get even more people interested.
3rd: Shulk adds something new.
Shulk is ridiculously unique. He has a lot of moveset potential, and Sakurai looks at excatly that. He played Fire Emblem, he couldn't see anything interesting in Chrom, so he added Robin as a 3rd FE rep, saying that he fits very well in Smash, adds something new and that the whole moveset easily came together.
... and many more things. Honestly everything was already said earlier so yeah.
Want: 100%
I have never wanted a character as much as him.
Shulk has so many things that could be done with him. Also, Xenoblade is a great game with amazing soundtrack and immense stage potential, and having Shulk in means we'll get a lot of music, probably 1 stage for 3DS and one for Wii U, assist trophies, trophies in general and interesting Smash Run enemies. He wouldn't just be a unique character, there's so much more going for him.
Chorus Men:
Chance: 5%
When we even get a RH character, it will probably be Marshal. 3 characters in one sounds unique and nice, but 2 like Ice Climbers are a problem to balance already. Also, too many Chorus Men could kill internet connections. Marshal has just as much moveset potential like they have, and he's easier to implement into the game. The only thing that helped them was Gematsu, and that leak isn't reliable anymore.
Want: 30%
I wouldn't be bothered at all by a RH rep as we already have things like WFT and Villager. However, 3 characters sounds horrible to control and I haven't played RH anyway so I don't have any personal connection to them.
The first part might've been true, so I vote 50% for chance. I don't believe it though.
Chance - 95%: Last time I rated him, I assumed we weren't taking the leak into account, so my score is unchanged. Extremely likely. With X coming out, he could be used for advertisement even if he's not actually in the game. I heard somewhere that he's the single most popular request in Japan other than Mewtwo, and as we all know, Mewtwo is not a newcomer. The only thing holding him back from a 100% is again, no Xenoblade related content as of yet, though honestly, I think that's a good thing. Every day that passes without a Shulk assist trophy is a good one. Alright, I've added "Shulk" to the dictionary now. Stop telling me it's spelled wrong.
Want - 100%: The only non veteran character I actually care about. Please Sakurai... please... please...
Chorus Kids:
Chance - 60%:
Let me explain.
Sure, they aren't the most well recognized character and not many people heard of them until the leak existed, but with Sakurai aiming to make the new characters as diverse as he can, I highly doubt he'd use someone like Karate Joe to represent the series. The Kids have many unique ideas for how they could work, many I'm sure Sakurai could have thought of himself. It could still happen, and thinking about how they could be more unique than other RH characters (I'm certain we're getting one) makes me think they still have a decent shot regardless of the leak.
Want - 100%: Warlock Glee Club in HD please. These guys have really grown on me. I still probably wouldn't play them, but I have definitely changed from a "neutral" opinion into a more favorable one. And really, I don't care to see the fanbase be unnecessarily cruel to them if they are disconfirmed like with when happened with Chrom. I honestly only wanted Chrom because he was from Awakening, but I feel really bad for him now.
Gematsu Legitimacy: Isn't this the million dollar question?
Chance - 62.5%: On one hand, yes, it could be guesswork/bull sand, but let's look at all of the later emails sent, as regardless of the legitimacy of the first email, all characters mentioned have been playable. I'm going to disregard that for now, as Chrom has sent the later emails into doubt, not the first one:
Palutena will be playable
Pokemon from X/Y will be playable
Shulk will be playable
Chorus Men will be playable
Chrom will be playable
Debates about Lucas vs. Ness with the former likely to be cut
Character DLC
Shulk was to be revealed last Monday
We can say without a doubt, that one thing is 100% true here; Palutena being playable. Supporters argue that with Greninja debuting in X/Y and Sakurai admitting during the roundtable that he had a spot reserved for a new Pokemon (Greninja) whom he made entirely based on concept art, that it is possible that when the information was leaked, it was during this planning stage. I'm an advocate for innocent until proven guilty because this leak mentions Shulk so I'll say Mr. Tip and Leak got this one right too.
As for what this guy got wrong; Chrom, and the timing of Shulk's reveal. I am convinced that the email regarding Shulk's confirmation was bogus, so my score cannot be 100%. Supporters argue that Chrom could have been cut during development, but detractors argue that Sakurai said Chrom was considered, never planned. We'll never know if Chrom was planned until some hacker pokes around on the disc and maybe finds something, but for now, I'll just say this bit of information is false, because Chrom is not playable. The Lucas vs. Ness debates seem fishy in my eyes for two reasons;
This implies Toon Link was planned since the beginning
Yes, Lucina was originally supposed to be an alternate costume, and was apparently added later in development, but if they were willing to promote an alternate to a character over a small change in gameplay, then the biggest evidence for why Lucas should be cut now makes no sense. (Assuming people didn't already find it to be nonsensical with Toon Link) I have no doubt that this is also false. There is no reason to cut Lucas at this point, and if he was to be cut with Lucina and Toon Link being playable, especially after that joke during the Robot Chicken digital event thing, there will a massive storm of backlash. Probably not to Mewtwo levels, but still pretty bad. So that's 3 things I consider false. DLC could go either way. While I personally hate paying for characters in a fighting game because paying to learn a matchup is just obnoxious, I'm not going to pretend like it's an impossibility.
And now we get to the meat and potatoes of this thing: the two remaining characters. Many people think Shulk will be playable regardless of the leak due to the numerous things in his favor, so a Shulk confirmation would mean absolutely nothing for this leak I think. What Robin's confirmation has done is bring us back to square one; the Chrous Kids being the crux of this thing. If the Kids are confirmed, then I find it possible that the second leak at least could be legitimate, or could have been legitimate at one point in development. If there is one thing Robin has done, however, it's put to rest the theory that Gematsu + Rosalina would be it. So, lets look at our info again:
Palutena will be playable [✓]
Pokemon from X/Y will be playable [✓]
Shulk will be playable [Still possible]
Chorus Men will be playable [Still possible]
Chrom will be playable [X]
Debates about Lucas vs. Ness with the former likely to be cut [I personally thing this is bull sand]
Character DLC (Still possible)
Shulk was to be revealed last Monday [X]
25% of this so far is correct. 37.5% either hs been proven false, or looks to be false. The remaining 37.5% of the leak could still happen. Thus, I will say that this leak has a 62.5% chance to be legitimate. This will be lower if any of the yellowed things do not happen.
Want - 50%: For this, I am only going to score the events that have not occurred rather than the events I think could happen. I gave both Shulk and Chorus Kids 100%, so at least 50% of this I actually want. Character DLC gets all of my nope unless they pull a Skullgirls and make it free for a limited time or something. I just don't want to have to pay money just to learn a matchup assuming I'm not interested in the character being sold. Lucas or Ness being cut? Now why the $@?# do you think I'd want that to happen? I used to play both of them, and the MOTHER series is simply fantastic. I hate cuts in general. Even was a loss to some extent; no more embarrassing people by beating them with the worst character ever created. There really is no excuse for removing either at this point, so no. I don't find this likely, nor do I want it to happen. So yeah, 50% of this I'd want; the Chorus Kids and Shulk being playable.
Whoo, that was the longest post I've typed other than [CLASSIFIED]
Shulk- 70%
Want- 20%*
I recently picked up a copy of Xenoblade Chronicles, made it about a quarter of the way through the game, and then gave up. I did not enjoy the gameplay. As for Shulk's potential as a Smash character, a lot of his attacks would probably be slashing movements with the Monado, which seems overdone at this point. He has a few "Monado arts" which would make for good specials, but I'm still not all that interested. Apart from that, his character defining trait seems to be the ability to see into the future, and I really don't see how that could be incorporated into his moveset other than as a final smash or counter. My main desire to see him stems from the fact that Xeno Chron had great music and nice visuals so I feel at least Shulk would bring a cool stage with him.
Chorus Men- 60%
Want- 100%
It's possible they're an assist trophy and Gematsu confused them a la the Chrom debacle. I still want them in, though. I mean we've talked about them so much that I've pretty much fallen in love with their adorable charm.
I don't follow the logic. You rate Gematsu very low, yet think the Chorus Men are guaranteed to be playable? The ONLY thing going for Chorus Men is the leak. An RH rep? Yes! That's INCREDIBLY likely, practically guaranteed, but there's far better and more likely choices from Rhythm Heaven than a trio of characters that appeared only twice in the franchise, both in the same game.
Yes, I do, because other than the Sneaky Spirit (Which wasn't my only point about the Glee Club), Rhythm Heaven is a very popular series, even with only three games. You could make similar cases for both Pikmin before Brawl or Fire Emblem before Melee.
That said, this isn't arguing against your points, but instead at least trying to defend my own. I do see the faults in my rating (Sneaky Spirit as a Smash Run enemy isn't much to go off of), but even just Sneaky Spirit is more representation than series and games bigger than it get sometimes. (Oh Chronicle, you are so cool as a game log, but painful to read as a list of things that didn't get in the game beyond yourself.)
Man, why am I not getting alerts for all the threads on my watchlist?
Yes, I do, because other than the Sneaky Spirit (Which wasn't my only point about the Glee Club), Rhythm Heaven is a very popular series, even with only three games. You could make similar cases for both Pikmin before Brawl or Fire Emblem before Melee.
That said, this isn't arguing against your points, but instead at least trying to defend my own. I do see the faults in my rating (Sneaky Spirit as a Smash Run enemy isn't much to go off of), but even just Sneaky Spirit is more representation than series and games bigger than it get sometimes. (Oh Chronicle, you are so cool as a game log, but painful to read as a list of things that didn't get in the game beyond yourself.)
That's... not what I meant. The point is you rated specifically CHORUS MEN. Chorus Men only appeared in two minigames in the entire series. Sneaky Spirits can hint at a playable rep, but the only thing that goes for Chorus Men is specifically the Gematsu leak. If you believe the leak is dead, there's no reason to assume the Chorus Men are playable at all, rather, its more likely that a different, more recurring Rhythm Heaven rep would make it.
You are welcome. You just remembered me something I wanted to ask you, do you spell "Palutina" on purpose? because her name is Palutena with an "e" I am just curious and forgot to ask you the other day. On a side note if you wanted me to read your thanks if you add @ before my user name I get a notice, so I don't miss reading your post (if that was your intention)
Though outside of Smashboards I use it because a friend of mine is trying to decide who to main out of Rosalina and Palutena.
Her name ends in "ina" so I keep asking her "Who am I going to end up fighting in October? Rosal-ina or Palut-ina?" So witty I know.
I didn't even notice that I had slipped into using it here too until you pointed it out.
Now I better go back an edit my post and check my other one too in case I've done the same there too.
Thanks Groose. I'll try to remember that next time.
Shulk:
Chances: 95% (extra 5% due to @Brawler610's post, I didn't know about some of the points they raised.)
I still think he has a great chance at getting in Smash. I don't think his chances have really been hurt by the leak being exposed as not 100% true. It just means he's not 100% guaranteed, but I'm expecting him to be in.
Want: 80% I've not played the game (but really wished I had now, and every time I look for it, it always comes up as out of stock), but from what I've heard/seen/read about, Shulk seems he'd be a pretty cool character to add to Smash as well as mix up the whole "Oh yet another swordsman" with some interesting abilities that could make his play style a bit different from what we've seen before, which does also seem to be the running theme of this Smash. Even some of the characters I've been less pumped about have had pretty unique styles and abilities to them. So if Shulk gets in, I'm looking forward to get to try him out.
(Also whilst I'm not huge on voice acting, Shulk's voice made me warm up to him pretty quickly.)
Chorus Kids:
Chances: 50%? I honestly don't really know what way this could go. For a while most people believed the leak and even friends I've been discussing Smash with were sure they'd get in. Being rather used to hearing that they're a dead cert has left me a bit up in the air about what their chances now will be.
Want: 35% There's a few other characters in RH I had originally thought more likely to get in. Rhythm combos could be interesting, even if I'd probably be beyond terrible at it. However, I did see this that made me up my want score a bit. (Apologies if someone as already put this up already):
Gematsu: 50% Who knows? I certainly don't. It could be down to it being old information, or that it was just incredibly lucky guessing. Either way, it dominated Smash speculation for a while, and with it now in some doubt lots of fans are feeling like they can hope for some of their characters to be in the game.
The Glee Club in particular is cited as one of the most memorable and iconic stages/characters in the series, and Rhythm Heaven even had Marshall introduced as an homage to the Chorus Kids/Men/Monsters(?)/Potatoes. It's also telling that most people think of the Glee Club segments when referring to Rhythm Heaven as a series (when it's not just one of the many, MANY parodies of the entire game/series, anyway.)
There's also the notion that Sakurai pays close attention to how characters would add uniqueness to the game; While yes, there are too many Rhythm Heaven characters that could utilize a fighting mechanic around rhythm and music, the Glee Club are among the only characters that are already based around music compared to say, The Wrestler or Karate Joe, so they would be the best fitting representatives as they would encompass not just the aesthetic but also the gameplay of Rhythm Heaven.
Shulk- 70% Want- 1%
I recently picked up a copy of Xenoblade Chronicles, made it about a quarter of the way through the game, and then gave up. I did not enjoy the gameplay. As for Shulk's potential as a Smash character, well, I don't see how he'd play much differently than the many other swordsmen we already have. Every single one of his attacks (from what I saw) involves hacking and slashing with the Monado. He has a few defensive moves at his disposal, such as healing himself, but (unlike Robin) he has no way of attacking an opponent other than through that big sword of his. Apart from this, his character defining trait seemed to be the ability to see into the future, and I really fail to see how that could be incorporated into his moveset other than as a final smash or counter. The reason I didn't give him a flat zero is because Xeno Chron had great music and nice visuals so I feel at least Shulk would bring a cool stage with him.
You only went a quarter of the way through and think you know enough to claim Shulk can only hack and slash. How cute. Cyclone, Shield, Speed, Purge, Eater, Armor, Enchant. The only Monado Art that involves "hacking and slashing" is Monado Buster, and even then, none of the other swordfighters so far can triple the length of their swords. He's no less generic than any other character. Your assumptions are just so darn precious.
The Glee Club in particular is cited as one of the most memorable and iconic stages/characters in the series, and Rhythm Heaven even had Marshall introduced as an homage to the Chorus Kids/Men/Monsters(?)/Potatoes. It's also telling that most people think of the Glee Club segments when referring to Rhythm Heaven as a series (when it's not just one of the many, MANY parodies of the entire game/series, anyway.)
There's also the notion that Sakurai pays close attention to how characters would add uniqueness to the game; While yes, there are too many Rhythm Heaven characters that could utilize a fighting mechanic around rhythm and music, the Glee Club are among the only characters that are already based around music compared to say, The Wrestler or Karate Joe, so they would be the best fitting representatives as they would encompass not just the aesthetic but also the gameplay of Rhythm Heaven.
Marshal was in the original Rhythm Heaven, as well. He's been in two of the three games, if anything, the Chorus Men were based on Marshal, and he was redesigned slightly to look more like them when he came back for Fever.
Marshal was in the original Rhythm Heaven, as well. He's been in two of the three games, if anything, the Chorus Men were based on Marshal, and he was redesigned slightly to look more like them when he came back for Fever.
Hmm, that's a really good point. However, I still feel that the Glee Club have a stronger chance due to the fact in itself that there's a trio of them, which is something Smash Bros. hasn't done before (well, not at once anyway, if we want to count Pokemon Trainer).
Speaking of, did they really not come back for Fever? I haven't played in a while, but I could've sworn they at least made cameos...
Chance: 70%
Without the Gematsu leak, he is still likely. However he is no longer in the 90-100% range.
Want: 100%
He's a interesting character and Xenoblade Chronicles is awesome.
Chorus Men
Chance: 25%
I do think we are getting a Rhythm Heaven rep. Now that Gematsu is less likely, they lost their edge. One of the other Rhythm Heaven characters could easily be in instead of them.
Want: 60%
Prefer another Rhythm Heaven character.
Gematsu Leak
Chance: 50%
The first part is true. All the E3 2013 leaked characters were annouced eventually. However, for the second leak he said Chrom would be in. Of course Robin and Lucina are in. The leak is outdated and the second batch of info might be fake.
You only went a quarter of the way through and think you know enough to claim Shulk can only hack and slash. How cute. Cyclone, Shield, Speed, Purge, Eater, Armor, Enchant. The only Monado Art that involves "hacking and slashing" is Monado Buster, and even then, none of the other swordfighters so far can triple the length of their swords. He's no less generic than any other character. Your assumptions are just so darn precious.
Sorry if I offended you with my post, but I was simply sharing my opinion. I suppose I made a few assumptions, but it really seemed that Shulk mainly attacked close range with the Monado while ranged attacks were delegated to other party members. Upon further research, I found three Monado arts that could translate to interesting specials: Purge, Eater, and Cyclone. The other Monado arts appeared to be strategic buffs or defensive arts. Anyways, I'll raise my score a bit, but there are still a lot of newcomers I'd rather see.
Sorry if I offended you with my post, but I was simply sharing my opinion. I suppose I made a few assumptions, but it really seemed that Shulk mainly attacked close range with the Monado while ranged attacks were delegated to other party members. Upon further research, I found three Monado arts that could translate to interesting specials: Purge, Eater, and Cyclone. The other Monado arts appeared to be strategic buffs or defensive arts. Anyways, I'll raise my score a bit, but there are still a lot of newcomers I'd rather see.
Sorry if I offended you with my post, but I was simply sharing my opinion. I suppose I made a few assumptions, but it really seemed that Shulk mainly attacked close range with the Monado while ranged attacks were delegated to other party members. Upon further research, I found three Monado arts that could translate to interesting specials: Purge, Eater, and Cyclone. The other Monado arts appeared to be strategic buffs or defensive arts. Anyways, I'll raise my score a bit, but there are still a lot of newcomers I'd rather see.
I understand that you're entitled to an opinion, trust me. I just get tired of opinions that a bit of research tears apart. If you want to see what Shulk and his supporters are capable of, check the OP of the Shulk thread and my moveset in it.
Shulk
Chance- 70%
Has a lot of popularity both here and overseas. As I remember, didn't Sakurai retweet a picture of the Monado or something? There's also the retweet by Monolith and the inclusion in different leaks. But... is there like anything we've seen in the game that would suggest Xenoblade material? Like... at all? I understand that this isn't a necessity, but we've seen stuff for a lot of other characters. Saying this is a good thing, in my opinion, is a little ridiculous. I think he's more than 50/50, but I'm not entirely convinced.
Want- 75%
I like the idea more now that it is confirmed that X is a continuation of the Xenoblade saga, even if not a direct sequel. I'd like to see this be a new big thing for Nintendo, and Smash has always been good advertising. Reasons I don't put Shulk higher include limited roster space and while I think his moveset would have some unique elements, I think it's hyped a bit more than it ought to be.
Chorus Men
Chance- 55%
This is hard. I guess I'll give 50% for Gematsu and 5% for the Sneaky Spirits. Let's not forget that while there was Rhythm Heaven talk before Gematsu... it wasn't about the Chorus Men. They're a less than likely RH rep without the leak in its favor.
Want- 30%
I'm ok with a Rhythm Heaven rep, but three characters is a little much. Just confirm my Ice Climbers already, Sakurai.
Gematsu Legitimacy
Chance- 65%
Oh dear. This. I guess the first thing to say is that I think that people were a little too excited about giving this the heave-ho. Obviously, at best it's information is outdated and spotty, but we can't forget just how good it did. + Villager- admittedly, he didn't call it by it's name, but there is little question as to who he was referring to.
+ Mega Man
+ Wii Fit Trainer (!!) - Rosalina (not wrong, as he didn't contradict it, but it does put how much he actuals knows into question.). + Little Mac
+ X/Y Pokemon (Greninja)- Yes, he didn't specify. It's actually quite brilliant, though considering that the spot was originally intended as a placeholder for whatever X/Y Pokemon Sakurai decided was best. DATED, yes, but legitimate.
+ Mii Fighters (He did specify Fighters, just before E3, didn't he? If that's accurate, then this is a serious point to remember. How could you just guess that?)
+ Palutena
+ Pac-Man - No Shulk Reveal
- No Chrom - Robin and Lucina confirmed. Worth Mentioning- Sneaky Spirit.
That's... a lot of green. A lot of green that people try too hard to forget because of the lines of red at the bottom. But let's not trivialize the red. What should we understand by them?
* For one, not having Chrom is simply wrong. If our leaker is legitimate, then he isn't actively involved with the whole project. We could hypothesize as to how he might of messed this up if we knew just what his task was. We'll obviously probably never know this, but it might make sense (all we really know is that he's probably with Namco). He could have been working on the model and just assumed he was playable.
* Now for the Shulk trailer. First thing to note is that Sakurai specified that they are near the bottom of the barrel of trailers that have been finished. This would imply that he had several options that he could have used on Monday. What's this mean for our so-called leaker? Obviously, it could mean he isn't legitimate. There are other possible explanations, though. One is that Sakurai decided to change up the reveals. There's some other planning involved than "just switching," like preparing proper PotD, but I doubt the leaker would have been close enough to this decision to have known. Another possibility is that he stupidly guessed that Shulk would be next or said what he said to get hype up. Stupid, since it would obviously call all his information into series doubt if he was wrong, but not impossible.
Everything being said, the leak has some flaws, but I don't think they are necessarily fatal. His info is both dated in some areas, limited in others, I think there's just too much right about it to discount it altogether. Maybe he only knew about the E3 newcomers. Not sure what job he would have had where this would be the case, but it's not so hard to imagine that there would be one.
So, taking everything into account, what does this mean? Not really that much at this point other than making Shulk a little more likely and meaning it might be too early to discount the Chorus Men altogether.
Hmm, that's a really good point. However, I still feel that the Glee Club have a stronger chance due to the fact in itself that there's a trio of them, which is something Smash Bros. hasn't done before (well, not at once anyway, if we want to count Pokemon Trainer).
Speaking of, did they really not come back for Fever? I haven't played in a while, but I could've sworn they at least made cameos...
Actually, personally, I think the fact that its a trio goes AGAINST them, because Sakurai already had problems just getting Ice Climbers working. But you're entitled to your opinion. I don't really see how what makes a trio so special compared to one. Does it do anything different? If so, why does it matter?
Shulk
Chance: 75%
I have never played the Xenoblade game but based purely on things that have happened (those retweets did happen...) and things that other people have said, I think he has a good chance of getting in. I strongly believe he is possible of getting in the game on his own merits; Although he is a swordsman, his sword is supernatural in a way nobody else's is in Smash, so that might be "different" enough for Sakurai to throw him in the fray.
Want: 55%
Eh. I lean more towards wanting him in than not, but like I said, I've never played his game. His concept is cool, though. If he got in I would be perfectly fine with it and probably even play as him.
Chorus Men
Chance: 40%
Not sure about this guy (...these guys). They do have a rep in Smash Run... but Animal Crossing had a representative stage and assist trophy in Brawl. A Rhythm Heaven enemy in Smash Run is not enough to make me believe he'll be a shoo-in like other people might believe. Conversely, it does help his chances a bit anyway. Another thing that hurts their chance is the fact it's a 3-in-1 character. All three kids in one character. Not sure if a free for all with 12 Chorus Kids on the screen would be wise. Conversely, they wouldn't be complicated models at all. Eh.
Want: 100%
These guys have a less-than-ideal chance of getting in, but I would like them to be. I like the idea of a rhythm-based moveset. I also like quirky characters, so this is perfect for me.
Of course, I won't main them... I don't have perfect rhythm.
Gematsu Legitimacy: 20%
This past update with the Famitsu interview means a couple things. If the leaker did, in fact, get the information, it was irrelevant. Chrom was never planned to be in; He was considered. That's all.
There is the situation in which the leaker had a set of descriptions like "Pokemon from X and Y" like "Protagonist in Fire Emblem: Awakening". I will submit to that being the only way I can see it as being legitimate. The other characters sans-WFT were, as far as I remember, really wanted by a lot of people. I know I was among the group of people that banked for Villager. They weren't hard to guess at all.
I will hold my breath though. I'll watch what Sal says his source says in the future.
Shulk
chance - 75%, I thought Shulk has had a pretty good chance even without any leaks, he's the main character in a new franchise with lots of potential, a sequel is in the works, and Monolith Soft are becoming one of Nintendo's most powerful second party developers.
want - 80%, I don't know exactly what he does, but he looks to do some fun things, especially with his sword being able to transform to what is essentially a beam sword
Chorus Men
chance - 5%, I wish I could say what I said about Shulk for these guys. Unfortunately, Gematsu and the sneaky spirit were all they had going for them and now it's proven that Gematsu isn't gospel, he's against competition in his own series that isn't even guarantied a rep (Sneaky Spirit could just be like Smashville in Brawl)
want - 70%, which is a shame, because I really like their design, so simple yet expressive, quite charming really
Gematsu as a whole
chance - 37.75%
Now let me explain myself
The first thing I did was find out the leaker's current success rate for 8 out of 11 newcomers, giving him a success rate of 72%
Secondly, I found the average of my thoughts on the remaining Gematsu leak parts
Shulk +75
Chorus Boys +5
Lucas removal +30 (could happen but probably not)
DLC +0 (contradicts Sakurai's no DLC statement)
=110 divided by 4
=27.5%
So I added the 2 together and divided by 2, giving me 47.75%
I also subtracted 10% based on the fact Sal's leaker still hasn't responded to what happened Monday, giving me 37.75%
Sakurai tweeted a picture of a monado that was at the press-start concert. It seems to have just been on the concert floor, by the musicians, for some reason. Perhaps Xenoblade music was being played? Nobody knows. Also, nobody knows the true intentions behind Sakurai's tweet. He could be a huge fan of the series or could have just found it neat. However you want to take it, there's only positives that can be taken from this as far is Shulk's inclusion in Smash 4.
2) Shulk is a commonly wanted character
Out west, as seen by this thread, Shulk's support thread, vgtribune's Smash Poll 2012, and "Shulk for Super Smash Bros 4" fb page, Shulk is a largely requested character. Furthermore, out in Sakurai's habitat, Japan, Shulk seems even more popular than he is here.
Other: Shulk gets quite a lot of requests. Shulk is easily the most requested Nintendo character from a series not represented yet with a playable character in Smash Bros. A distant second would be Starfy. There are several Japanese Smash fans that mention Punch-Out and Little Mac's "overseas" popularity. Isaac (Robin in Japan) and Matthew get few requests. Saki and Isa also get few requests.
Sakurai is paying attention to the people's requests which is seen by an interview with him about his decision not to put chrom in. Also, many of our top requested characters have made it into the game, whether characters, assist trophies, or stage hazards.
3) Shulk can be easily translated into Smash 4
This may seem obvious to people but it's nonetheless important. The main argument people had against Ridley before that Nintendo Direct was that he is too big, implying he would not easily translate into Smash. The opposite can be used as an argument for Shulk. It's easy to make and implement a unique moveset for him. His auto attacks, arts, and monado arts lay out the potential moves he can have. When making the moveset for my ssbb mod, I didn't have to be very creative at all; although, I could have been had I had the resources Sakurai does.
4) "But I am no ordinary swordsman!"
Robin said this in the announcement today, and the truth of the matter is, this is important to people and Sakurai. In the interview about his decision about Chrom, Sakurai said a part of the decision is that Chrom would not have been unique enough and would have been essentially just another swordsman.
The "no similar swordsmen" argument derived from the "no clones" argument, and it's valid for characters like Chrom or Lucina. While this argument is often used by people looking for arguments against Shulk, it actually is more of an argument for Shulk since Shulk isn't just another swordsman, he is the wielder of the Monado, a powerful and unique weapon. For those who haven't played Xenoblade, the Monado opens up like a banana (Bonado
) and a beam of energy comes out. This beam can vary in length, so it's not like it would have to be just like a sword with shock flags. More importantly, the Monado has a number of Monado Arts that could acts as special attacks such as Monado Purge, Monado Cyclone, Monado Eater, Monado Speed, Monado Armor, and Monado Shield. The game also has a number of battle mechanics such as Shulk's future seeing, tension, and various debuffs that could be implemented into his moveset if wanted.
5) Voice actor of Shulk has stated he's Voice acting in new game(s)
"I have been working on a new game recently. I can't say what it is yet but I was very pleased to see it trending on Twitter when it was announced. It's very satisfying to know there's a buzz and anticipation for a project you're involved in."
Monolith Software used to be third party but came to be owned by Nintendo before Xenoblade was released and so is 1st party. This means Sakurai is free to use Shulk if he wants, without special permissions having to be made. This also makes Monolith the only 1st party developer company without a representation in the Smash bros series. Furthermore, Monolith Soft also worked on Smash bros brawl, which puts into place even further connections to Sakurai.
7) Gematsu leak is hurt but not dead
It's not necessarily dead. The Gematsu leak predicted a ton of characters, and we still have that sneaky spirit from Rythm Heaven that was spotted in Smash Run. It's possible that the Gematsu leaker came across some misinformation, like, perhaps, seeing a completed Chrom model and assuming he's a character. He explained that he doesn't know when the characters will be announced and that Sakurai changes his mind, but he asserted that Shulk is definitely in the game. It's probably best we hear an explanation from the leaker before we officially declare it 'dead.' Also, there are rumors that suggest that perhaps Shulk was planned to be announced but then was moved to a later date for some reason (possibly because people were expecting it), and the monolith developer who retweeted the character reveal could have been mistaken because of the same reason the Gematsu leaker could have been. However, it's no doubt that there is some explaining that needs to be done in order for the Gematsu leak to hold much credibility.
8) Xenoblade's sequel
The sequel to Xenoblade, Xenoblade Chronicles X, has an unknown amount of connection to Xenoblade. We know some guy at Nintendo treehouse said, "It's more of a spiritual sequel" when roughly asked how much the game relates to Xenoblade. We know there's a girl with two monado hairpins. We know that there's a nopon with the Satata's Japanese name (also sports similar glasses to Satata). I have my own theories about the game, but I won't go into them here. Anyways, connections to Shulk raise his relevance by lowering his obscurity and raising his foot print in Nintendo's timeline of gaming.
The sequel also improves the '6) Monolith Soft argument' because it means Monolith will play an even larger role in Nintendo.
9) Xenoblade is a masterpiece
Some awards (only the ones where Xenoblade got first place):
IGN [US] - 2012 Best Wii U / Wii Game
IGN [US] - 2012 People's Choice Best Wii U / Wii Game
Nintendo Life - Staff Award for Wii Retail Game of 2012
Nintendo Life - Community Award for Wii Retail Game of 2012
TechTudo [Brazil] - Best Wii-exclusive game of 2012 (in Portuguese).
Gamespot [UK] - Editor's Choice Best Wii Game of 2011
MMGN - 2011 Best RPG
RPG Fan - Best Sound of 2012, Best RPG of 2012
RPGamer - Best Music, Best Console RPG, Best Story, Best Overall RPG of the Year
Slant Magazine - #1 in Top 25 Best Games of 2012
PixlBit - Game of the Year 2012
The reason why you might find that Shulk supporters want him so bad is because of how great of a game Xenoblade is. It's seen as the game that turned around the JRPG genre. It has great story, astounding music, fun combat, and the best graphics that a wii game can have (this game tried to be hd on a non-hd platform!).
Xenoblade being such a highly rated game improves Shulk's chances because it makes it more likely for Sakurai to appreciate the game and Shulk, even if he has not played the game.
10) Japanese voice actor of Shulk, Asanuma Shintaro, tweeted that he is hoping he can fill us in with some good news soon with #Xenoblade
As is the nature with Smash 4 newcomer discussion, these arguments do not individually prove his inclusion but each serve to raise his chances by a little bit. However, it's these arguments that keep the chances for Shulk at a place higher than any other potential newcomer.
-
Chorus men: Chance 80%
Want: 10%
I think even without Gematsu they still have a decent chance because of the sneaky spirit in smash run.
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Gematsu legitimacy: 70% chance
The Chrom prediction lowered its chances of being correct by a lot. I still think Shulk and Chorus men have good chances of getting in even without the leak, especially Shulk. This may mean its still legit with some potentially outdated info or it could mean it's just the world's luckiest guess.
Gematsu... I sitill believe he has some relation to the game...
Well, he said:
Wii Fit Trainer
Mega Man
Little Mac
Villager
Mii Fighter
Palutena
Pac-Man
Chrom
Shulk
Chorus Kids
Pokemon from X and Y
If only chrom is wrong, lets go with simple math:
100% = 11
x% = 10
11x = 1000
x = 1000/11
x = 90.9%
Then I'll go with 90.9%
Shulk: 90% Even without the leak, he's really likely.
Want: 100% Love Xenoblade. Chorus Kids: 80% Sneak Spirits...
Want: 95% Would bring something different to the game.
Shulk's chances: 90% - Others have said this well. Most likely character remaining.
Want: 40% - I still don't really care about him.
Chorus Kids' chances: 25% - A Rhythm Heaven character is even more likely than Shulk, in my eyes. I'm just no longer certain it's most likely them.
Want: 10% - I love Rhythm Heaven and I'm in support of a character, but I'd rather not have these guys.
Gematsu: 70% - He definitely had some true info at least.
Roy prediction: 1.98% - He's done for.
Dark Pit prediction: 8.29% - Expecting another increase.
Shulk's chances: 90% - Has a lot going for him, and how many other development studios have retweeted multiple Smash announcements?
Want: 100% - Still my most wanted after Ridley.
Chorus Kids' chances: 50% - Sneaky spirit makes me think we will get a RH rep, just not sure if it's going to be the Chorus kids.
Want: 50% - No real hype, but I would be super interested to see how they play.
Gematsu: 65% - His first leak cleared, the real question in my mind is if he actually had any real info to go along with the second leak.
Well even though the leak is fake shulk still has a fantasic shot from all of the evidence. (Most damingly sakurai making a twitter post about a picture with shulks blade in it.)
Want 100%
Love to see him playable (despite never played his games.)
Chorus men
Chance 20%
Hmmm i don't see it anymore 3 in 1 is overkill (no the miis don't count each version is a seperate character.) (pkmn trainer neither sakurai stated the transformation mechanic is dead,) and now a ryhthm heaven rep is likely so other more likely reps than chorus men.
Want 0%
No i would raither have the rhythm heaven wrestler or kung fu guy as playable than them.
Shulk's chances have, unlike what certain people seem to think, not gone down one bit since before Robin's reveal in my opinion.
He has several factors that point towards his inclusion: both his voice actors (Japanese and English) have made tweets that seem to point to some secret project, Monolithsoft have helped Nintendo with several of their games lately (Animal crossing new leaf, Brawl, Skyward sword to name a few.), Shulk is a really unique character from a critically acclaimed game and Sakurai wants to include several new franchises in Smash 4. The best part is, those aren't even all my points as to why Shulk is likely.
Want: 100%
I have wanted Shulk since the day Smash 4 was announced.
Chorus kids' chances: 50%
I could see it going both ways right now.
Want: 50%
I don't really care for them, but they could have a pretty cool moveset.
Gematsu: 80%
I feel like Gematsu isn't completely debunked yet, there must be a reason for why the leaker got Villager, Megaman, Wii fit trainer and Mii Fighters right.
Shulk
Chances - 95%. Even though Chrom was blown outta the water, I'd say Shulk still has a shot especially given Sakurai's and Soraya Saga's tweets, as well as that Adam Howden tweet.
Want - 100%. My most wanted newcomer of all time (Palutena, who was already confirmed, was my 2nd most wanted).
Chorus Kids
Chances - 75%. Even if it's not them we may still get another RH rep, as the Sneaky Spirit has hinted.
Want - 50%. I'd prefer Marshal myself for an RH rep.
Gematsu Legitimacy
About 75%. Way I see it Chrom was the only weak spot, since part 1 (Mega Man, Pac Man, Little Mac, Villager, Mii, WFT) is 100% true and the leaker responded in an email that "Sakurai changes his mind about things" (which may explain the Chrom-Lucina switcheroo) but that "Shulk was a guarantee". Only time will tell.
As of right now I can't see any other newcomer as more likely than Shulk, even though the gematsu leak is no longer reliable Shulk no longer needs it.
Shulk want - 100%
Yes please! Second only to Isaac in my desire.
Chorus Kids chance - 55%
While I still think it's likely we're getting a Rhythm Heaven rep, recent events have made me unsure it'll be the Chorus Kids. It may be Marshall at this rate.
Gematsu leak - 60%
I still believe the guy behind it was somehow in the know, whether he only had some information and made up the rest or he got his wires crossed somewhere. That leak just got too many things right for me to comfortably brush it aside. Frankly it's a pretty irritating leak in that sense.....
That said it's not like we can really trust it anymore, maybe take it into consideration.....but it most definitely is no longer gospel.
Shulk's chances: 85%
Sakurai seems to like Xenoblade due to his Monado tweet, and the other retweets by whoever is on the Xenoblade staff (creator? director? someone tell me?), so I'm sure Sakurai has thought about putting Shulk in.
Want: 80%
He looks cool. Even though I didn't like Xenoblade that much (please don't hate me), I believe he deserves to be in Smash.
Chorus Kids' chances: 60%
It may be possible. I've heard that Rhythm Heaven is popular in Japan and I don't think Japan has got any newcomers who are popular only in Japan (like how the West got Mac), so if Sakurai is willing to cater to our likes, why wouldn't he be willing to do the same for his fans who are his countrymen? Also will it be Chorus Men and not some other Rhythm Heaven rep? Are they really the most iconic?
Want: 80%
I've never played Rhythm Heaven before, but they look cute and I think they could have a unique playstyle, possibly rhythm based and or with combo attacks using all three of them.
Gematsu legitimacy: 50%
It could go either way. It's really hard to guess all the characters he did (WFT, Villager, Miis), but also, how is it that he didn't get Rosalina, Robin, or Lucina, plus he said Chrom was going to playable, and that the Monday announcement was going to be Shulk. I don't think we'll ever know if it was truly real, because this is the internet and everyone lies all the time.
) series for Nintendo, and already has representation in Smash Run via the Sneaky Spirit despite being a nonviolent series? Yeah, they're definitely showing up.
was a loss to some extent; no more embarrassing people by beating them with the worst character ever created. There really is no excuse for removing either at this point, so no. I don't find this likely, nor do I want it to happen. So yeah, 50% of this I'd want; the Chorus Kids and Shulk being playable.
