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[Toxicroaker]

Gematsu Legitimacy: 25% He missed 2 (1 1/2?) characters and got one wrong + he said that the trailer would have Shulk so... Yeah.

Shulk: 60%
Want: 75% Now that I have seen Chuggaaconroy's lets play, my opinion on him has completely been flipped upside-down.

Chorus Men: 10% In case gematsu is real. But, I think he could have easily gotten them confused with Marshal.
Want: 0% No. Just... no.

Dark Pit: 11.23%
Roy: 3.42%

 

[Morbi]

This is most certainly an interesting topic...

Gematsu Legitimacy: 72%

This might seem as though this is a subjective topic; however, I would honestly assert that one is blatantly incompetent if they proclaim that the Gematsu leak is not, at the very least, 72% accurate. This is based on the notion that it is objectively "72%" accurate or "legitimate" at the current time. This aspect of the leak's credibility is not subject to debate. It is completely and utterly irrelevant that Rosalina was not present on the leak as that is an inconsistency most likely misconstrued as a result of misinformation because his information was indeed outdated (this is proven by a preponderance of the evidence via the assertion that a Pokemon X or Y candidate was on the roster). Chrom could be the product of a similar correlation, I am not certain. Chrom is the only portion of the leak thoroughly refuted, the rest of the leak was merely contested.

Once that is considered, the rating can finally start as if you believe Chorus Men or Shulk are especially likely, that only serves to increase the leak's credibility from "72%." There is undeniable evidence in favor of a Rhythm Heaven representative (this does not; however, HAVE to entail a character, least of all "Chorus Men"). Shulk is the Twitter Warrior and there is reason to believe that he might be in the game.

If you do not agree, quite frankly, you are an idiot.

 

[Reginleif]

Gematsu's legitimacy, again, should not be judged as a group. There were two rounds to it, there is no way the leaker took from the same legitimate source.

Leak 1: 100%
100% confirmed a real leak

Leak 2: 10%
Outdated information from the start and Chrom was considered but never had a chance stated by Sakurai. Sounds like some guesses were included.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

If you do not agree, quite frankly, you are an idiot.

Goddammit, I know we're not supposed to debate for Gematsu rounds but you're making it really hard.

 

[Burigu]

Shulk
Chance: 85% really likely leaks aside the troll tweets by Monolith sold the deal for me
Want: 70% would like to know better the character, it's a shame this game is hard to get

Chorus Kids:
Chance: 50% basically the Sneaky Spirits prove that at least RH is represented in the game, so I will split their chances in half still likely.
Want: 50% Another series I am completely unfamiliar with, the more the merrier.

Gematsu
Since the grounds regarding the leak are shaking a bit right know I am not sure I can put a number, certainly the leak has some credibility to it, what we can expect from now on? well that is yet to be seen. Will Gematsu prove more "predictions" right? or will gematsu fall even more after the Chrom deconfirmation? Stay tunned

 

[TumblrFamous]

Gematsu Legitimacy: 50%
It's 50-50. I mean, I feel as if he has some info, but some of it was outdated. Again, you can easily say he got lucky.

Shulk Chance: 85%
Even if the leak's not true, he's incredibly likely. A new IP, great moveset potential, and incredibly popular.

Shulk Want: 100%
After Chuggaaconroy's video, I bought Xenoblade. I love Shulk.

Chorus Kids Chance: 55%
They don't have the greatest chance without the leak, but even if it wasn't true, I dunno, they're still pretty popular in the also popular Rhythm Heaven franchise.

Chorus Kids Want: 100%
I warmed up to them a lot. I LOVE the idea of them in Smash.

 

[Robertman2]

I just have to point out that your avatar goes so well with that post.

It's my most common facial expressions.

 

[jaytalks]

Gematsu Legitimacy: 0%
Unless a source was feeding this person wrong information, I can't imagine this being anything else. If you get things wrong, your source or you (or both) lack legitimacy.

From what I understand about the game and game design, it's very unlikely that Chrom made it very far in planning. Suggesting anything else is just speculating, especially considering he's a final smash. So for his source to say anything other than Robin is very unlikely.

Shulk: 55%
His chances remain unaffected by these reveals.
Want: 100%
He's a cool guy and X has officially become a Xenoblade game, so let the hype continue.

Chorus Men: 25%
I don't know how this characters would even work.
Want: 0%
Let it go the way of the gematsu leak.

 

[SmashChu]

Gematsu Legitimacy: 0%

It's dead. You don't get crucial things wrong with a supposed leak. Means you didn't know anything more than the average person. So far, outside of WFT, none of his characters were considered outlandish. Maybe Villager only because everyone assumed differently because of an interview with Sakurai. Pac-Man, Megaman, Little Mac, Mii and Palutena were all common suggestions and routinely discussed. As was Chrom, but you see how that went. It's not surprise he missed other unexpected characters like Rosalina and Robin.

Shulk: 90%

I think the Tweet from the Xenoblade director still means something. He never tweets unless it is about Xenoblade and he may not know what happens behind close doors for this game. There are also tweets from Shulks's British and Japanese VA. The former mentioned a new game he's working on and the latter mentions announcing something related to Xenoblade. There is also the fact he's a well liked characters, is from a new series that is getting a sequel and he's got a lot of abilities to work off of.

Chorus Men: 30%

With Gamatsu dead, it could be anyone from Rhythm Heaven. I think a Rhythm Heaven character is likely, but it's hard to say it will be Chorus Boys. There really isn't a main character in Rhythm Heaven so anything is truly possible. I'd like to see them though.

BTW, their official name is Chorus Kids.

 

[Sid-cada]

Gematsu Validity

As I'm a bit confused over what this is asking, I'll give two rankings

The Gematsu info was actually leaked - 100%

Everything else Gematsu said will come true - 20%


While I think the information was certainly leaked, I am fairly certain that the info provided is now outdated enough that not everything it predicted will come true. We shall see what will happen, but I'll let whoever is doing the rankings decide what to do with this.

Shulk

Chance - 90% - Even without Gematsu, there has been surrounding information that makes him likely. Honestly, I think this is one of the Gemastu things we can still expect.

Want - 50% - Don't care.


Chorus Men

Chance - 15% - In case the leak was actually referring to Marshal, I say I can slightly lower the leak's rating. Otherwise, what do they have going for them?

Want - 20% - Don't get me wrong, a Rythm Heaven character is something I don't mind, but I feel it should be something else instead. I prefer Karate Joe, honestly.

 

[shrooby]

"Rate the chance that Gematsu had some sort of legitimate source," eh?
I feel as though I might be misinterpreting.
"Legitimate"...
Does that mean that everything that tipster said will come into fruition?
The answer "no," because Chrom, and Shulk not being revealed.

0%

But...
hmm, no, something doesn't feel right about that. That's way too simple an answer.
It has to have some degree of legitimacy.
One does not simply "predict" the name "Mii Fighters." How could anyone perfectly "predict" the made up name that Miis will use in-game?
Say what you will about "predicting" Wii Fit Trainer will be revealed at E3 being perfectly acceptable, but this...
This is damning, I'm sorry. Pile that on with everything else that has been right and the fact that the guy had to have enough gall to send this information to a normally reliable website in the first place, and I think there has to be some degree of legitimacy, regardless if some things have been incorrect.
This is just like the X/Y leaker. He got some stuff wrong, but he still had insider info.

99% Is my actual answer
Because it is possible to just predict all of that, technically.
But, then, when dealing with probability, anything is possible, so...

I abstain from the other two things.

 

[Burruni]

Gematsu/Sal Romano leak Legitimacy: Overall: 47% if we assume his information was outdated and staggered in release in leaks 1, 2, and 3 excluding the name change of Mii Fighters (due to the Nintendo info for E3 was supposedly accessible with an easy-to-guess password).

Leak 1 - 100% (I don't think this one can be disputed except for timing).

Leak 2 - 60% Palutena confirmed, but a semi-likely guess. Chrom disconfirmed but considering the way that Lucina was stated in to be a "lucky case" to be included, my belief is that she ultimately replaced her father and Sakurai had the intent of Chrom + Robin since the early drafts of the roster. The Pokemon from X/Y placeholder could work for Greninja as a final name could not have been assigned to the concept art Sakurai saw, or the rep wasn't picked yet.... but it's up in the air. The two possible upcoming newcomers....

Shulk: Chance = 70% There has been a constant air about Shulk information (mostly from Twitter between Sakurai and Monolith soft, but don't forget his VA saying he was doing some big work this year but couldn't say anything about it) and the game was massive in the east before a group of diehard fans fought to get the game westernized which gives it a place in Nintendo history by doing what Mother 3 couldn't. There is always the chance Sakurai didn't find him proper for the roster.
Want = 60% I want this game represented, wouldn't mind if Shulk is how, but prefer Riki, Fiora, or Melia... but he is the face of the game and arguably the most convertible.

Chorus Men: Chance = 10%. While the Sneaky Spirit, and the fact that people are starting to whisper about a Wario + Rhythm Heaven Trailer akin to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm3DY2aS_kk ... The belief of it being Chorus Men by any other name is just as bitter sweet. The likelihood is for SOMEONE to represent RH is fairly high, but not a trio when Olimar's pikmin are cut down to 3 small AI units that don't directly attack and puppet character like Ice Climbers or Rosalina gave the team strife for the 3DS version.
Want =30%. I want them to be in more than Wrestler, Karate Joe, or Rhythm Girl... but Marshal is by far my big wish.

Leak 3 - 30% The argument of Ness OR Lucas seems unlikely because there's no real reason to drop Ness IF a Mother Rep had to be dropped. The Mii Fighter thing I already stated could supposedly have been gotten by anyone who guessed the password. Post-Release DLC... possible, but the only cases of this have been Mario Golf World Tour and Mario Kart 8 (and technically New Super Luigi U). The only hope of it is if there are characters Sakurai wanted to put in but got scrapped due to time constraints (like Brawl's Forbidden 7).

Leak 4 - 0% It wasn't Monado Monday. Shulk was not confirmed on this past Monday. I believe that the leaker believed in the Shulk hype like the rest of us and was as blind sided as anyone else.

For his character leaks, 80%. For his other news leaks, 15%.

 

[Arcanir]

Shulk
Chances: 90%
I feel that he wasn't that hurt by the leak taking a hit as he was one of the characters that seemed very plausible for inclusion. The tweets by the writer of Xenoblade and the VAs are all pointing in the direction of this character being in the game, he's a very popular choice, and (while the leak took a hit) was the character he was the most sure about. Plus, unlike Chrom, there's not a character that can really come in and be used over him, so I feel he's still a likely candidate even ignoring what has happened.

Want: 50%
Indifferent.

Chorus Men:
Chances: 55%
These guys on the other hand, did take a hit. While the Sneaky Spirit did greatly hint at an Rhythm Heaven rep, they are not the only ones that could feasibly be used such as other examples like Marshal and the Wrestler are present. Due to that, it can easily be another case like Chrom where they are chosen over them. However, they are still notable characters in their franchise if I understand correctly, so they could still get in.

Want: 50%
Also indifferent.

Gematsu
Chances: 85%
I honestly think we shouldn't be writing this off so easily. While he did get Chrom wrong, he did get 8 characters right before it, at least one of which was almost never predicted before their reveal. That is not something easily done no matter what, and if our predictions are correct, he can still get the other two right as well. Him getting Chrom wrong and missing Lucina, Robin and Rosalina does show that it's not all of the information, but it could be that it was outdated, which is supported by the "Pokémon from XY" statement.

So overall, I'm certain he knew something. He may've not known everything, and we may not be able to completely rely on it anymore, but the things he did get right are very notable and I don't think we should ignore it.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Shulk
Chance: 63% - I consider Shulk to be the most likely newcomer at this point, but I'm unwilling to give out any overly high ratings from now on.
Want: 89% - I would love to see Xenoblade represented in SSB.

Chorus Kids
Chance: 31% - At this point, the only thing they have going for them is the leak. Maybe they were originally planned but then replaced with a more simple Rhythm Heaven rep.
Want: 81% - Join the Choir today!!!!

Gematsu
Chance: 77% - Because of the huge success up until now, I'm guessing that he did indeed get reliable information from somewhere. I'm going with the "outdated information" theory.
Want: 50% - I no longer care.

Predictions:
Dark Pit - 4%
Roy - 1%

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Shulk chance - 80%
He's a highly-requested character from a new and successful franchise that has more games to come.

Want - 70%
I like to see new series represented and Shulk looks interesting, but I haven't played the game and have no attachment, so it doesn't mean much to me personally.

Chorus Men chance - 10%
I only put it higher than 0% at all because of the Rhythm Heaven enemies in Smash Run, but I don't think that means anyone playable will come from the game (look at the Animal Crossing stuff in Brawl).

Want - 0%
They look awful.

Gematsu E3 2013 leak cred - 90%
This is the one that had Wii Fit Trainer and Villager in it (as well as Little Mac, Pac-Man, Miis, and Megaman). All the characters from it have been confirmed, and WFT would be crazy for a guess, so it's reasonable to say this was a real leak.

Gematsu later leaks - 5%
Just a series of safe guesses (BUT NOT SAFE ENOUGH), strong fan requests, and one odd choice to round it out and make it more believable. There's no longer any reason to believe the leak was real. He made a huge, inexcusable mistake on the Fire Emblem newcomers, and "Enjoy Shulk" is just icing on the cake.

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Shulk
Want 80%
Chance 60%
I still have a lot of faith that Shulk will be in the game whether Gematsu is fake or not. Xenoblade is a very popular new IP from Nintendo and it's getting a sequel next year.

Chorus Men
Want: 70%
Chance 40%
I have grown to like the idea of the Chorus Men being playable in Smash 4 so I would be a bit disappointed if we didn't see them or at least another Rhythm Heaven rep. I do think that Rhythm Heaven will get a rep, but it might not be them.

Gematsu - Irrelevant
It might have been real at one point but it has shown that it cannot be relied upon, so at this point it doesn't matter.

 

[GloriousDay]

Shulk:
Chance: 90%
Want: 100%
Shulk is one of the few character who I most definitely want in the game. He has a lot of potential and would definitely be one of my favorites, no doubt. On top of the Xenoblade representation, Shulk is incredibly likely for the new Smash Bros.

Chorus Men:
Chance: 30%
Want: 5%
After seeing a fanmade trailer, I liked the idea of them in Smash some more, but I don't think they should be the representative we get. Someone like Marshall, the Wrestler, or Karate Joe would be better. But that's my own opinion, of course. After Gematsu was proven false, I believe their chances have been hurt considerably, but we definitely shouldn't count them out.

Gematsu Credibility: 5%
It's obvious the leaker MAY have had information at first, but later they began pulling things out of their-- er, yeah. I don't think the newest form of the leak can be trusted at all considering it not only got Chrom wrong, but also guessed a strange addition, and Salromano hasn't heard back from his source yet despite trying to contact him. Honestly, I'm glad, because I didn't want the leak to be true. It ruined the fun for me, and it sucked the life out of speculation. Now, we know anything can happen, and that makes it much more exciting.

 

[Groose]

(Can we nominate again yet?)

One week.

Want: 70% would like to know better the character, it's a shame this game is hard to get

It's not as good as playing the actual game, but you could always just watch the best Let's Play ever made. I say that not based on the particular game being played, but rather on the passion and humor of the host. I'd recommend watching the first six episodes; that should give you an insight into who Shulk is, but it's only a tiny fraction of the game, so you'd be able to play through the vast majority of it unspoiled if you got the chance.

Shulk Chance: 70%
Don't you think it's a bit strange just how much Monolith seems to follow this game? It seems that every time something dedicated to Smash pops up, they decide to tweet about it. Speaking of tweets, Sakurai sent out one a while back, too--apparently, he's a fan of Xenoblade. Oh, and we know that he adds characters from games that he's enjoyed, so...

Shulk Want: 100%
He's my third-most wanted newcomer. However, unlike with Ridley and Rool, I have not braced myself for his exclusion. For weeks I've taken it as pretty much a certainty that he's in, and I'll be absolutely crestfallen if that vision of the future does not come true.

Chorus Men: 25%
Disregarding the Gematsu Leak for a moment, a Rhythm Heaven character seems pretty darn likely--a bit likelier than Shulk. After all, it's a new yet large series, and it does have a big presence in Japan. That said, the Chorus Men are one of the bigger icons of the series, and that means they still have a shot. I'm not so confident that they'll be able to pull off a trio, however, and they do face hefty competition from within their own series. My bet is on the monkey.

Chorus Men Want: 50%
Rhythm Heaven is a fun and wacky franchise; I wouldn't mind seeing a character from it, and I think these guys are pretty alright. My only fears are that a character from the franchise will have a gimmicky, unintuitive music-based moveset, and I also don't like the amount of work a trio would probably take.

Gemastu Credibility: WHO CARES?
I thought for over a month that the Gematsu Leak was real. I defended it to the bitter end. I could not see a situation in which the leak would turn out to be a sham.

...well, it's time to eat crow, isn't it? It looks like the leak could very well have been a sham after all. Based on how the leaker acted this last week, I find it unlikely they have legitimate information. It's still possible, but I'm going to admit that I was most likely wrong in my dedication to the leak. I apologize if I was overzealous during this period of time. I tried not to force my opinions on others, but I may have inadvertently done so. My apologies.

I'm not going to give a specific score to how likely it is that the leaker has a legitimate source of information. Obviously I think it's less than 50%, but I haven't considered just how low I'd go. That doesn't matter at this point. Because the leaker was proved wrong on one character, I can no longer trust him on the others. Since I can no longer trust his word, I can no longer take the leak into account with regards to speculation, and I no longer care about it. This is the last time I will talk about the Gematsu Leak.

DAY OVER

"What's important isn't whether you can see the future or not. It's the will to make a choice." -Shulk
​

 

[False Sense]

Gemastu Credibility: WHO CARES?

I didn't know "WHO CARES?" was a possible answer choice.

Wish I knew that earlier.

 

[Pacack]

Shulk:

Chance: 70%
Want: 100%

Chorus Kids:

Chance: 30%
Want: 50%

Glad I got here in time.

 

[Groose]

Shulk
84.58% chance (was 91.70%)
80.71% want (was 74.55%)
Shulk's chances may have dropped a bit, but the spirit of Monado Monday will never die. Although he once struggled to get a 60% want score, he now broke the 80% barrier. Piece of cake!

Chorus Men
44.16% chance (was 81.25%)
49.01% want (was 56.08%)
Shulk may have experienced a bit of a slide in chance, but the Chorus Men's score fell off the cliff. A nearly 40% chance drop changed them from highly probable to somewhat unlikely. Their want score also dropped below the 50% margin. Not a good performance by the choir today.

Gematsu Leak Legitimacy
60.71% chance
As I said, I have no further comments on this matter. Expecting commentary? Too bad, Groose time.

Today it's time for a couple of clones. Roy was everyone's favorite Marth clone until Lucina joined the roster; can he manage to join the roster once more? In addition, Dark Pit was largely dismissed a month ago; can he gain more momentum now that we've seen other clone characters in action? Please rate Roy and Dark Pit in the attack of clones!

Tomorrow will be Dixie Kong and Lucas' day to shine. Predict how they'll do. Remember, nominations are suspended until we complete our current schedule, which is listed directly below this.
​

Schedule:
Day 279: Shulk, Chorus Kids, and Gematsu
Day 280: Dark Pit and Roy
Day 281: Dixie Kong and Lucas
Day 282: K. Rool and Mewtwo
Day 283: Snake and Isaac
Day 284: Dr. Mario and Bowser Jr.
Day 285: Takamaru and Pichu

Glad I got here in time.

You cut it pretty close, pal. Still, it's in.

I didn't know "WHO CARES?" was a possible answer choice.

Wish I knew that earlier.

It's called abstaining. With style.

 

[Weeman]

Wow, the Chorus kids didn't deserve that much of a drop, the leak gets one thing wrong and then suddenly everyone is like "GEMATSU IS DEAD".

 

[Morbi]

Roy Chance: 10%

I highly doubt an additional Marth clone would be included on the main roster as that would entail three vastly similar move-sets; however, I certainly have faith that he is a reasonable choice for a downloadable content character.

Roy Want: .1%

Lucina is the more ideal candidate for a Marth clone. I am entirely satisfied with her inclusion and I intend to main her. Roy was a great addition in Melee; however, that time has passed. He is no longer pertinent to Fire Emblem and he no longer promotes the newest addition of Fire Emblem. If he were included, I would not be opposed. But I do not actively support him.

Dark Pit Chance: 51%

Sakurai blatantly confirmed that if a character has "slightly different abilities" that they warrant a spot on the roster. Dark Pit was quite obviously alluded to upon multiple occasions including an unprecedented trailer cliff-hanger. The inherent problem; however, is that Sakurai quite clearly wants us to believe that Dark Pit is playable unless he realized that most would adhere to confirmation bias and disregard his role in the trailer. This could be Dark Pit hiding in plain-sight, but it is the subject of my hesitation to proclaim that Dark Pit is "inevitable." I agree with @ Pacack , so I am adjusting the score, he is more likely than not on the roster based on the preponderance of the evidence.

Dark Pit Want: 100%

This is honestly just because I expect him as a character, thus I want him as a character. Okay, perhaps I was not being entirely truthful, I am just happy that he finally has a (perceived) chance. He has always been one of my most wanted, but I never supported him as he had very little evidence in his favor. I presumed that someone with prominence such as Hades was more likely. I suppose that is still likely if @ BluePikmin11 's theory is indeed correct.

 

[Deleted member]

Shulk still did an impressive job! I'm surprised! It looks like the loss of the Gematsu leak didn't cut deep enough for Shulk.
Dark Pit and Roy have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these two, check to see what you've said on their days!

I'm a bit tired, so I'll rate the servant of no one other than himself and some people's boy tomorrow.

 

[Starbound]

Dark Pit: 1% Chance / 70% Want
I love Uprising to death and all but he seems like the perfect alt costume.

Roy: 0% Chance / 40% Want

 

[Pacack]

You cut it pretty close, pal. Still, it's in.

Thanks, Groose. I just wanted to get that Shulk want score in, mainly.


Roy:

Chance: 0.1%
Very rarely do I ever give scores this low to characters that have such merit. But there's no way. Even if we're ignoring the fact that a fifth fire Emblem character is next to impossible, Lucina's the Marth clone now. It's just not happening.

Want: 0%
There's literally no reason whatsoever to include him at this point.


Dark Pit:

Chance: 57.5%
I genuinely think he's more likely than not at this point. Let's assume that Dark Pit was going to be given the alternate costume treatment for Pit like Lucina was for Marth.

Why would he make one of them a full character and not another?

Of course, I'm in no way entirely convinced that he's in. I could be wrong. I just think it's a bit more likely than not that he's in at this point.

Predictions:
Lucas: 75.5%
Dixie Kong: 33.34%

 

[Nimbostratus]

I'm assuming that we are talking about getting their own individual slots... right... right?
I'll change my scores we're not

Roy
Chance- 2%
Five Fire Emblem slots? Not gonna happen.
Want- 5%
Five Fire Emblem slots? No thank you.

Dark Pit
Chance- 10%
I'll give ten percent in case I'm wrong, but frankly I think he's deconfirmed. At the end of the day, he didn't get a title card like Lucina did. Or anything else, really.

...

That being said, I think he'll get an even better treatment than I previously thought. As Sakurai said he's ok with characters with different names being on the same slot, I suspect it will now say "Dark Pit" whenever his swap is in the game. It's a pretty good deal altogether, I think, and there is little question that he will get at least this. But if we're talking about any more- deconfirmed. Probably.
Want- 0%
As a swap? 100% As an individual slot? Goodness no.

 

[Groose]

Wow, the Chorus kids didn't deserve that much of a drop, the leak gets one thing wrong and then suddenly everyone is like "GEMATSU IS DEAD".

Ah, but those scores are now in the past. The world, you see, keeps turning, and we must turn with it. Let's not talk about that today, OK?

I'm assuming that we are talking about getting their own individual slots... right... right?
I'll change my scores we're not

Why, of course! We always rate the chance a character will make it onto the roster the day the game is released.

 

[ミスティック Speed]

Dark Pit
Chance: 75%
The odds of Dark Pit being included as a character have drastically risen after seeing that Sakurai is willing to make clone characters.
Want: 100%
Only if Sakurai gives him different weapons from the game he starred in, since Pit alone does not cover them all. It only makes sense, and I believe it's the only logical way to go. Otherwise, keep him a costume please. Thanks, Sakurai.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Roy:
Chance -

We already have 4 FE characters, and 1 is already a Marth clone. I really don't see it happening.
Want - Abstain
I don't really care about Roy either way, tbh.
Dark Pit:

As far as I'm concerned, if the character themself explicitly appears in full form in official material before having a trailer for themselves including splash art, without being a veteran? No thank you. I know some people are going to argue that Lucina is a clone therefore why not Dark Pit, but Lucina was revealed at Charizard levels of speed in her trailer and wasn't even the main focus. In fact, even she got a part in a trailer with the text "Lucina wakes her blade!?" Seeing Dark pit without that kind of splash art says to me that he's not in it outright.

 

[ultimatekoopa]

Roy 0%
Want 0%
Dark Pit 99% Sakurai is teasing Dark Pit like he is teasing Ridley, I believe Ridley is playable so I would be a total hypocrite if I didn't treat Dark Pit the same just because he is a clone
Want 10% Would rather have Medusa or Hades

 

[False Sense]

Wow, the Chorus kids didn't deserve that much of a drop, the leak gets one thing wrong and then suddenly everyone is like "GEMATSU IS DEAD".

Perhaps it isn't totally dead, but it's been proven that it can be wrong. If it isn't absolute, then the Chorus Men have no reason to be treated like absolute shoo-ins.

Anyway, about today's characters...

Roy Chance: 0.01%

We have four Fire Emblem characters already, and one of them is already a Marth clone. Why would they ever add Roy in at this point?

Roy Want: 0%

I see no reason why we should have him.

Dark Pit Chance: 1%

I think he's very overrated, and I also think this reveal hurts him more than helps him. True, we have a character who was originally an alternate costume who was promoted to a clone character with a few small differences, so it's possible that the same could be done for other characters. However, at the same time, we saw a dual character reveal for two characters from the same series. If Dark Pit is in, what reason would they have for not revealing him with Palutena? Do they really plan on saving him for a later reveal? Is he really someone who could warrant having a trailer dedicated entirely to him? Not to mention, differentiating Dark Pit from Pit would be a bit trickier than doing it with Lucina considering that they share the same body type, and Pit doesn't really have an ability like Marth's tip damage that could be altered for a clone. Unlike Lucina, I think Dark Pit is just going to be an alternate costume for Pit.

Dark Pit Want: 0%

I really think he should stay as an alternate costume. I don't think Kid Icarus should really get three representatives at this point in time, and even if they were, I don't see why they would choose Dark Pit over someone more important and interesting like Medusa or Hades.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dark Pit Chance: 50%
I think I will just copy and paste what I had posted (with the hard work I had put into it) with an additional pro in mind.

1. This Twitter picture of Sakurai's posable figures: +5%

While Sakurai has told us not to look deep into the picture (And yes he said it was not related to the game he's developing, even though this obviously depicts a Smash Bros scenario), it kind of brings us to questions as to why Dark Pit is even over there (Or even why Sakurai posted a picture of a Monado or even why Sakurai posted a bunch of posable wooden figurines), it may be the fact the figures were new at the time, or for us to raise an eyebrow... ? I personally think this ment that Dark Pit was planned way before Lucina was decided to be a character.

2. The ending of Palutena's trailer and the lack of a Dark Pit pallete swap: +10%

The ending of Palutena's trailer gives off a sequel hook vibe.. in short, it means that suggests that there is a possibility of another story. While not exactly matched in meaning, it does show us that Sakurai wants us to question Dark Pit's role in the next Smash Bros. 4 game, could it be a continuation to a Pittoo gameplay trailer:
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SequelHook

To me, this suggest that Dark Pit has somewhat of a bigger role than just an alternate costume, now that even clones of the same character get their own separate role, Pit's black pallete swap seems to have disappeared from the demos of Smash 4 too, which helps Dark Pit's case of being more than an alt. costume now:

(Also to clear things up, for the second freaking time, Tom Nook in Villager's trailer was not a direct tease, Dark Pit in Palutena trailer was, Nook never gave us something that would easily make people curious as to what is going on. So no they are not comparable. Also Yellow Devil doesn't deconfirm Pittoo the more I realize it, as his tease is clearly pointing out to a stage hazard.)

3. Sakurai's Bias: +10%
Probably one of the most notable things when it comes to franchise representation is that so far is that Kid Icarus has a big load of Uprising content.

Spoiler

1. Palutena's having her own set of unique customizable special moves:

2. The amount of KI items usable in the game (About 5 in total so far):

3. The stages in the 3DS and Wii U version:

There's loads of KI content I could show you more examples such as the amount of KI enemies in Smash Run and the music played in the stages that Sakurai has added. He has done it before with the Kirby series back in Brawl and I think he will do it again, except this time he's probably adding it as a last-minute clone, whom Dark Pit perfectly fits the role of.

When it comes to his potential moveset, he could use his Dark Pit Staff or his Silver Bow (Or his Darkness Bow if you want to fit the dark theme), he can use the other types of weapons not used by Pit such as the Claws, Club, Cannon, or even the Blade to easily differentiate him from Pit, he's not literally a pallete swap with no potential like most people say here.

And to easily not confuse Dark Pit with Pit in battle, they could easily pose him differently and give him a different weapon to make things less of a dazzle.

Now for an additional pro:

4. Semi-clones are confirmed now +10%

With Lucina confirmed as a seperate character, and the fact that even characters who have similar appearance, but can have a difference gameplay wise can be in as a character, I feel like we have gone a lot closer to playable Dark Pit now. Now all we need to know is if he's not the boss in the KI:U Wii U stage, an alt., nor a trophy to increase his chances as playable even more!

Roy Chance: 3% Literally dead at this point, Lucina already made as the relevant filler clone, and I doubt Roy is coming back.

 

[Icedragonadam]

0% We have four Fire Emblem reps already and Lucina's a clone of Marth. So there's no chance of him.

Want:5% I don't find him interest at all. But I gave him some points just because,

Dark Pit:33% I see him more as an alt costume of Pit.

Want:0% Again, only as an alt costume.

 

[False Sense]

Oh, one more thing about Dark Pit. It's worth noting that the lack of a Dark Pit costume in the demo means practically nothing considering that a number of confirmed alternate costumes (like Wire Frame Mac) and a number of likely costumes similar to Dark Pit (like Dark Link) did not show up either. If Dark Pit is a palette swap for Pit, then they're likely keeping it hidden along with the rest of the alternate costumes.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Dark Pit:
Chances: 5%
Want: 0%

-Roy:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

 

[Burruni]

Roy - Chance: 0, Want: 0. With Lucina being a 4th FE Rep and just slipping in at that as a clone, the only thing that Roy has is the fact that his sword is on fire more than Ike's, and FE is not going to 5 Reps. (RIP Anna). As a fan of the series, I still can't enjoy Roy as a character, nor a fighter.

Dark Pit - Chance: 20. Want 30. There is one thing that gives Dark Pit a chance is the fact that Sakurai could implement Staffs, Palms, and Cannons into the arsenal as they are 3 of the 9 Uprising weapon archetypes not used. Dark Pit could be more of an Anti-Clone than anything. He could end up LOOKING like Pit but having a completely different moveset based on those weapons. At most, he could be sharing the Power of Flight. Also, of those include the Dark Pit Staff and Viridi Palm (and claws) with Dark Pit being more tied to Viridi than Palutena. Nonetheless, 3 Kid Icarus reps is pushing the welcome of Uprising Content and I seriously doubt we will have any newcomer clones except for the unique case of Lucina... especially since we're likely only getting 4~6 newcomers we do not have confirmed at this point.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Why, of course! We always rate the chance a character will make it onto the roster the day the game is released.

Cool. I guess it's this quote from the Famitsu article that raised the question for me.

Initially, I had considered including Lucina as one of Marth's alternate costumes. After all, she has a close relationship with him in FE:A. In such cases, even if two characters' names and voices differ, as long as they function the same way, I assign them as alternate costumes. The Wii Fit Trainers, Villagers, and Robin are examples of this setup.

In other words, Lucina could have shown up in Marth's slot- with the name "Lucina." I frankly didn't think he would have do this beforehand. This obviously would have been quite different from Male/Female avatar swaps we've seen in the past. Would we have considered Lucina as "getting in" had he not slightly differentiated her?
So assuming Dark Pit is literally called "Dark Pit," he's in the game in every essence other than he doesn't have a character slot on the menu- he has to be toggled from Pit. At least that would be my understanding from what Sakurai said. So I'm assuming we draw the line on the definition of "alt costume/swap" vs "character" as to whether or not they have an individual character space, and nothing more. It seems almost arbitrary, but it gets the point across clear.

 

[ultimatekoopa]

Oh, one more thing about Dark Pit. It's worth noting that the lack of a Dark Pit costume in the demo means practically nothing considering that a number of confirmed alternate costumes (like Wire Frame Mac) and a number of likely costumes similar to Dark Pit (like Dark Link) did not show up either. If Dark Pit is a palette swap for Pit, then they're likely keeping it hidden along with the rest of the alternate costumes.

But what would be the point of hyping an alternate costume? Why isn't Sakurai officially deconfirming like he did with the rest of the characters like Chrom, Wonder red, etc?

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Cool. I guess it's this quote from the Famitsu article that raised the question for me.

In other words, Lucina could have shown up in Marth's slot- with the name "Lucina." I frankly didn't think he would have do this beforehand. This obviously would have been quite different from Male/Female avatar swaps we've seen in the past. Would we have considered Lucina as "getting in" had he not slightly differentiated her?
So assuming Dark Pit is literally called "Dark Pit," he's in the game in every essence other than he doesn't have a character slot on the menu- he has to be toggled from Pit. At least that would be my understanding from what Sakurai said. So I'm assuming we draw the line on the definition of "alt costume/swap" vs "character" as to whether or not they have an individual character space, and nothing more. It seems almost arbitrary, but it gets the point across clear.

I think you're overthinking this.
We're rating the chance for the character to get in as a unique playable character, as their own slot on the CSS if you will. So Lucina did "get in," but if say Roy were actually a skin for Marth then he'd be just a skin.