Bandana Dee
There aren't
that many things to talk about. The first is Gematsu and three more newcomers confirmed. As I've said over and over, this definitely reduces the chances for any other newcomers. I happen to think that a roster of 47 or 48 is most likely, while there is some chance for a larger roster (with 51 as the highest number with more than negligible chances) and also some chance for cuts to make room for more newcomers, the net result is little space left. As I think about it, I probably should've given even lower scores to Ridley, K Rool, Takamaru, Isaac and Mewtwo.
The second thing to talk about is Kirby: Rainbow Curse. The picture with four Bandana Dees is going to be brought up again and again today. The problem with that is this:
Before that picture came out, one of the Bandana Dee fans' big arguments was that he was totally unique! He was not like Toad, who is another prominent sidekick type character - but doesn't have a unique name or appearance. Well, now it appears that Bandana Dee is not so unique anymore. So while this shows Bandana Dee is sticking around the Kirby franchise, it also undercuts one of their previous arguments. So one argument was strengthened, while another argument was severely weakened. I don't see that as an obvious big plus for Bandana Dee.
But more importantly, Kirby: Rainbow Curse is being announced three months before Smash launches. Sure, they've probably been developing it for a while already, but the roster was already decided upon a good while ago. This is just too late to matter much.
Bandana Dee being one of four doesn't really hurt either, I'm just trying to put a damper on the boosters who are going to say this is strong positive evidence. It's ambiguous and
mostly unimportant.
The third and least important thing to talk about is move customization. We can no longer say with certainty that Waddle Dees have been completely removed from Dedede's move set, as it is entirely possible that one of the variants on Gordo Toss will be Waddle Dee Toss.
Bandana Dee chances: 3%
Sorry, but I don't see room for more than 1-4 non-Gematsu newcomers (or Mewtwo), and Bandana Dee doesn't really measure up to the other options. He's still more likely than most in my eyes - my scores for most characters outside of our current top 10 or so are going to be brutal.
Bandana Dee want: 5%
Bandana Boosters have made me dislike the character. The positive thing I would get out of seeing him? It would prove that the Rosalina+Gematsu leak is not an exhaustive list of newcomers.
Captain Toad
Bottom line is that Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker came about too late to matter. They most likely did not start developing this game until after SM3DW was almost finished, possibly not even until after release.
This definitely helps the chances of getting a playable Toad in Smash 5 though - especially if it's a hit.
Captain Toad chances: 0.5%
Captain Toad want: 59%
I see more move set potential for Toad now because of this game. And Toad deserves a spot in some form. But I'm not really upset about the probable exclusion of any playable Toad.
Predictions:
Ghirahim - 13%
I foresee a big drop because of more newcomer skepticism due to Gematsu. Not enough of a drop IMO.
Impa - 6%
I foresee a modest rise because of Hyrule Warriors, tempered by Gematsu.
Both will be slightly aided by Tingle's demise. For sure, I expect to see Impa rise in chance
relative to Ghirahim. But honestly, Zelda is well-represented and while I'm a big Zelda fan and would welcome more Zelda characters... I never thought it likely, and with little room left for more newcomers...
While I don't think Impa's blade looks like any real weapon (it's way too big), glaive's are polearms, and Impa is definitely using a sword. Looks more like an over-sized nodachi than a glaive, IMO.