Fortunately I don't have to do much thinking this time, since my last rating for Chrom pretty much defines how these two have to go.
I think the Gematsu leak is almost certainly real - over 99%. But there's some chance the info in it was outdated, so there was some opportunity for the Smash team to change their minds, or run into time constraints.
Even if the Gematsu leak were fake somehow, Chrom would still be the most likely FE candidate (although not as dominating). So I gave Chrom a 99%.
I consider the chances of 4 FE reps very low at this point. There's not a lot of room, and even if there was, I just don't think FE deserves that many reps, not with DK, Metroid, Zelda, Mario, Pokemon, Golden Sun, Xenoblade, Rhythm Heaven etc. all being more deserving of a first/another slot before FE would deserve a fourth, IMO.
So given that, that only leaves 1% for Robin and Lucina. Ouch. I
wish Chrom had lower chances.
If they decided not to include Chrom, then, the question is why? One would be for move set reasons. They wanted someone more different in play style. In that case, Robin would almost certainly be the choice. The other would be for character diversity - they wanted a female character, most likely. Lucina would definitely fit, but so would Robin. Robin could also be a gender neutral character like Villager and WFT. But I'd give the edge to Lucina on that one. The third reason would be that they didn't include any FE newcomer.
I can't decide which is the more likely reason to pick someone other than Chrom, as Chrom seems boring for both reasons. No FE newcomer seems less likely. As such my scores are:
Robin chance: 0.6%
Lucina chance: 0.25%
Other FE characters have even more negligible chances at this point, IMO.
Robin want: 50%
Lucina want: 40%
I don't really care about Fire Emblem. But I'd prefer either of these two to Chrom, particularly Robin, who would be more interesting as far as her move set.
Predictions:
Bandana Dee - 19%
I dunno. On the one hand, Kirby getting a new game and Bandana Dee being in it in any form is gonna have the Bandana Dee fans whooping that he's practically confirmed. On the other hand, most people see the writing on the wall with the Gematsu leak and 3 recent newcomer confirmations significantly lowering the chances of other newcomers. All in all, I predict a modest decline.
Captain Toad - 2%
Captain Toad's new prominence came too late. If the game is a hit, Toad diehards should gear themselves up to campaign for Captain Toad for Smash 5. Another good thing for them is that Captain Toad will have likely expanded his moveset possibilities.
I'm not really that good at explaining, so I'll tag @
Erimir
who is an expert in this stuff.
How you consider the chances of both of them depends on how independent you think the variables are.
If you think that Fire Emblem's roster is likely to be limited to 3 characters, then they cannot be independent. There's only one slot left, and if one gets in, the other will likely not get in.
If you think Fire Emblem's roster has no limitations on size, and that Sakurai considers the characters without reference to the number of characters already represented from that series, then you just multiply them together as you have done. I consider this a highly unlikely scenario, in my view, given the correlation between series sales and series representation. Sakurai gives the more popular series more characters, although there's obviously some variation - DK, Earthbound and Fire Emblem had two characters in Brawl, while DK's sales were over 50x as many as Earthbound's, and around 10x as many as Fire Emblem's. This is why when I modeled this mathematically I included previous Smash representation as a variable - to account for roster inertia.
At any rate, I think FE reps are not independent.
Realistically you should consider # of reps and identity of reps somewhat separately, since there's also a chance of no FE newcomer, etc.
Then it would be
something like:
Chance of no FE newcomer: 5%
(obviously all reps get 0% in this scenario)
Chance of 1 FE newcomer: 85%
Chrom: 90%
Robin: 7%
Lucina: 3%
(Percents must add up to 100%)
Chance of 2 FE newcomers: 10%
Chrom: 99%
Robin: 70.3%
Lucina: 30.7%
(The percents must add up to 200%)
Chance of 3+ FE newcomers: negligible
Then you have to add the scenarios up for each character:
Chrom overall = .85*.9 + .1*.99 = 86.4%
Robin overall = .85*.07 + .1*.71 = 13.05%
Lucina overall = .85*.03 + .1*.3 = 5.55%
When added up, those come to 105... Notice the connection to the # of reps - 5%*0 + 85%*1 + 10%*2 = 105
As such, he thinks there's
at least a 20% chance we'll get two FE newcomers - without even considering Chrom!
As can seen, if you think about it in this way, considering the chance of both
does not lead to giving out 0% scores, @
Autumn ♫
