Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[loganhogan]

Snake
chance 5%
want 0%

I like Snake but I've always felt like he doesn't belong.


Lucas
chance 50%
want 50%

I don't fully buy the leak entirely, but if he's cut there's always dlc he is a first part character.

 

[Pureownege75]

Welp first post time!
Snake Chance: 5%
Snake Want: 50%
Let's be real here, the chances of Snake returning are slim to none. I feel like Sakurai would have announced him by now, as Sonic was re-revealed very quickly. Further more you would have thought that putting Snake in Brawl would have increased his appearances on Nintendo consoles, but why should Sakurai put him back in, if Metal Gear games continue to be put on all platforms BUT Nintendo's? he's iconic, and he was kinda fun in Brawl, but really, he just never fit in, as opposed to Mega Man, Sonic, and Pac-Man, all of which look right at home in the Smash universe.

Lucas Chance: 50%
Lucas Want: 50%
Mother is fairly popular, but Lucas was a pretty blatant clone so I'm sure I'm not the only one who wouldn't mind seeing him get the boot. Mother continues to be neglected by Nintendo, so his relevance (which was already low) has only further decreased. I did prefer his playstyle over Ness, but really Ness is by far more iconic than Lucas, and I feel Earthbound isn't really deserving of more than one rep, but that's just me...

 

[jaytalks]

Snake:
Chances: 1%
Every passing day it seems less likely, and we already have three 3rd party reps.
Want: 0%
I love the character but he just doesnt fit in a Nintendo All-Star Battle Royal considering how much he and his series has been a Sony staple.

Lucas:
Chances: 5%
Sakurai has demonstrated some cuts thus far, if Ivysaur and Squirtle chances are any indication. But he's a japan only character, in a series that is very dormant it feels.
Want: 0%
No connection to the character. I hear his game is great though! Wish it could get a US release.

Predictions:
Robin: 15.39%
Lucina: 4.45%

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Snake
Chance: 0%
We have a good enough third party lineup, with all 3 characters in that lineup far more famous than Snake. We don't need him anymore.
Want: 100%
Cuts are very undesirable

Lucas
Chance: 100%
I see no legitimate reason to cut him
Want: 100%
One of my best in Brawl

 

[Nimbostratus]

Snake
Chance- 15%
Not looking good...
Want- 38%
Play style is fun enough, which is why my want is as high as it is. Can't go much higher as I have no personal connection to MGS, don't think he fits in, and believe that three third party characters is enough.

Lucas
Chance- 49%
Lucas is a difficult one. I could see it going either way.
Want- 35%
Unlike Snake, I don't really play as him at all. I also think Mother has better second reps, though I don't think it deserves one to begin with. Also, I admit that I'm being slightly embittered against him as he might pose a threat to getting Ness cut... which would be downright ridiculous. If Ness gets confirmed than this will likely go up. I'm giving him this much since cuts ain't no joke.

 

[Groose]

Hes a veteran (pun intended) and he was the most unique addition to brawl, sakurai has gone on about how the team put a lot of effort into lucario, and with that in mind you can only imagine how much care snake had put into him.

Valid point there, but I do believe that Captain Olimar has him beat for the title of "Most Unique Brawl Newcomer." Still, Snake is definitely up there.

Snake: 60% chance and 50% want
I'm not as convinced that Snake has been cut as the majority. Sakurai always tries not to cut unique characters; so far, Mewtwo is the only one of those that was cut. Additionally, Kojima (and probably Konami) want to see Snake in the game. With those two things combined, there really doesn't seem to be much of a reason to cut him, bar one: Snake and Metal Gear have abandoned Nintendo.

Even this point has its flaws. Right as the roster was being decided, a Metal Gear game was ported to the 3DS. Also, the events before Brawl are very reminiscent of the current situation, what with a big new Metal Gear game coming excessively to the competition; it didn't stop Snake then, so why should it stop him now? For this reason, I still think that he's probable; I'm anticipating an August reveal.
As for want? I really couldn't care much at this point. If we get him? Cool, that's a bunch of good music, a cool character, and a great moveset that will be coming in. If he gets cut? Cool, that means it's more focused on Nintendo's All-Stars and the game is differentiating itself more from its predecessors. I'm completely fine either way.

Lucas: 40% chance and 0% want
I'll start with want--I have no desire to see Lucas in this game. I suppose he's pretty cool in his game, but I have not and can not play that game. In Brawl, I find that he's boring (I won't call him a clone, but he's just so uninteresting to me), and I wouldn't miss his absence at all. As a matter of fact, I'd straight up prefer to see the work that was spent on him in Brawl go towards something a little more interesting.

That said, I think he still has a really solid shot at coming back. Gematsu said that they were probably going to cut either Lucas or Ness, and Lucas is the more likely of the two to go. That would make it pretty grim for Lucas if it were not for the certainty that Gematsu is outdated--they've proven that time and time again. Things could definitely have changed there, and there has even been a delay, too--there is a very solid shot still that we'll get both of them, and even a shot we get only Lucas, so I'm definitely not ruling him out.

DAY OVER

PREPARE YOURSELF!​

 

[Groose]

Solid Snake
28.51% chance (was 42.73%)
61.98% want (was 60.14%)
Solid Snake's chance score dwindles with each rating. In the fall of last year, it was in the upper-sixty percent range. It dipped to the lower sixties during the winter, below fifty percent back in April, and finally to the twenty-percent range here in June. One thing, however, has remained highly consistent--his want score has always been in the sixty percent area.

Lucas
43.70% chance (was 72.98%)
59.16% want (was 65.27%)
Lucas' chance score was completely ravaged by the new addition to the Gematsu Leak; he went from being pretty darn likely to unlikely in the eyes of the community. Interestingly enough, his want score also fell a bit; it wasn't a major slide, but he did drop out of the sixty percent range.

Today we're going to be talking Fire Emblem! Chrom is a part of the Gematsu Leak; does this affect the odds of fellow Awakening heroes Lucina and Robin? Can one of them change the future and make it into Smash? Please rate Lucina and Robin/Tactician/MyUnit/Avatar in chance and want.

Tomorrow is sidekick day! Bandana Dee and Captain Toad will be returning to Rate Their Chances; both have been seen in new games this E3; could that help them make a late push? Prepare for a Deebate and predict Bandana Dee and Captain Toad's scores. Keep in mind, nominations are still disabled until we complete the following schedule:

Projected Schedule:
Day 250: Ridley and Sceptile
Day 251: Gematsu Leak, Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men
Day 252: King K. Rool and Dixie Kong
Day 253: Mewtwo and Jigglypuff
Day 254: Isaac and Takamaru
Day 255: Solid Snake and Lucas
Day 256: Robin and Lucina
Day 257: Bandana Dee and Captain Toad
Day 258: Impa and Ghirahim
Day 259: Medusa and Dark Pit​

 

[Smasher 101]

Robin's chances: 1% - I'm now convinced that Chrom is in the game. There's not really any chance of Fire Emblem getting four characters. As a result, this is the most I will give to any future Fire Emblem character that we rate except for Chrom.
Want: 30% - Never cared that much about Robin.

Lucina's chances: 1% - Same as above.
Want: 60% - I wouldn't mind her.

Bandana Dee prediction: 30.85%
Captain Toad prediction: 5.29%

 

[Tikivoy]

Robin:

35% could happen to give FE some variety, but not very likely.

Want: 90% She was our greatest tactician. On the other hand, I recall her name not being Robin.

Lucinia:

85% I can picture her

Spoiler

in her Masked Marth costume as Marth’s alternate costume, like the female Villager, Wii Fit Trainers, or (possibly) Dark Pit. That is basically the “female” Marth after all. A good amount of people thought Marth was female anyway

Want: 100%.

That’s my daughter.

 

[Hong]

Robin
Chance: 20%
One of three main characters from the hottest selling entry in the franchise. Offers diversity, unlike her two Falchion-wielding colleagues.
Want: 100%

Lucina
Chance: 30%
Intelligent System's most highly favoured of the three lead characters, as stated several times in Japanese interviews, as well as the English 8-4 Ltd interview. Lucina is one of the earliest character concepts for FE13, even back when they were thinking of having the game take place on Mars. Ike was also their prime pick for Brawl based on favouritism, even though three other characters had all the criteria to be newcomers.
Want: 100%

 

[Shotguner159]

Robin
Want: 0%
Chance: 20%

Lucina
Want: 100%
Chance: 30%

 

[Chandeelure]

LOL Robin and Lucina are very overrated, guys the Gematsu leak is real, Chrom is the FE newcomer and he will obviously be the only one.

-Robin:
Chances: 0%
Want: 10%

-Lucina:
Chances: 0%
Want: 50%

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Robin

Chance - 0%
Want - 0%

I'm sorry, but I've never really been interested in Robin. At this point, I believe the leak is real and Chrom will be in over Robin. Robin may end up making the game as an AT.

Lucina

Chance - 10%
Want - 100%

Would rather have Lucina over Chrom, but I wouldn't mind an alt costume for Marth

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Lucina:
Chances - 15%
She does have a main role in Awakening, but not as much as either Robin or even Chrom. Chrom being mentioned in the Gematsu leak hurts both Robin and Lucina's chances, but I still feel like Lucina has something going for her.
Want - 99.9%
Want rating is slightly lessened by the fact that I don't want her as much as I want Robin. Lucina is a great character who would improve both female representation and how much I like the roster in general, Chrom is kind of "meh" for me but I'd be very happy if Lucina got in.
Robin - 20%
Same with Lucina, except having a larger role in Awakening and if they are in they'd have a more unique moveset than either of them potentially. Especially more than Chrom. Though I guess I can trust Sakurai to give Chrom a good moveset, since he made the Villager and Wii Fit Trainer work despite them not being distinctly favorable choices. He even stated the Villager wouldn't be fitting for Smash! But yeah, Chrom is guaranteed at this point. Though there is a chance that there was a change of heart since the Gematsu leaker got their information, or we get 2 FE reps. We'll see though.
Want - 100%
I pretty much said exactly why I'd want him/her above by accident, they'd give a FAR better representation of the FE series unlike 3 blue haired swordsmen would, being able to use magic as well as physical weapons. Plus, they're a tactician: They could have something to do with that maybe, with other characters helping them out in battle or maybe having high priority for attack but slightly longer pauses afterwards (though those could both be considered stretches). I would say that there wouldn't be many good final smash options with their connection to Grima being spoilers, but Sakurai doesn't seem to care about spoiling things considering...

Spoiler

And...

Spoiler

And also...

Spoiler

Are all things spoiled in some way by Sakurai. I mean, the first 2 were simply heavy implications in the games but the latter was outright spoiled in Palutena's reveal trailer! I wouldn't see the harm in Grima making an appearance. So yeah... Basically, I think Robin would be a good thing to happening in... Smash.
Where my grammar is at?
EDIT: Oh, also, alternate skins/costumes/whatever means they can be male or female. So that's not a problem.
EDIT: Oh hey look I've given ratings on all the characters in my signature, now all I need to rate is... (눈u눈)

 

[Toxicroaker]

Robin: 3%
Want: 0%

Lucina: 1%
Want: 0%

We will most likely not get four Fire emblem characters and they definitely won't be the second (Robin) and third (Lucina) main character of an already repped game (Chrom from Fire Emblem: Awakening) If anyone it would be Roy.

Bandana Dee: 23.47% (I have a secret weapon that should keep him from dropping too much... No, it isn't my own score.)
Captain Toad: 6.72%

 

[False Sense]

Robin Chance: 10%

Yeah, that Gematsu leak really hurts Robin's chances. I find the possibility of a second Fire Emblem Awakening representative after Chrom to be rather unlikely, and since Chrom seems like he's more than likely in at this point, Robin's chances are rather low. However, I do think that Robin isn't entirely out of the question. Perhaps a fourth Fire Emblem character could actually happen, or perhaps the leak isn't 100% accurate. I think there's a little room for hope left. Not much, though.

Robin Want: 100%

Easily my second most wanted character. Having Robin in this game would be amazing. There's so much Robin can bring to the table as a potential character, and, in my mind, would be a much better representative of the entire Fire Emblem series than Chrom ever could be. Even if Robin's chances may be slim at this point, that won't change my opinion that Robin is the most ideal choice for a new Fire Emblem character.

 

[a smart guy]

Zeroes are approaching...
Full disclosure: I have not played a Fire Emblem Game.

Robin:
Chance: 5% Originality doesn't go far when you run out of slots.
Want: 10% I don't think FE deserves 4 reps.

Lucina:
Chance: 1% Easy Alt Costume.
Want: 0% Too similar to Marth...

Predictions:
Bandana Dee: 15.4%
Captain Toad: 8.6%

 

[ThunderSageNun]

Robin
Chance: 20%
If Sakurai decided to replace Chrom with someone different from Awakening, I could picture him joining the roster and receiving the same treatment as the Villager by offering both genders, he doesn't have the highest chances, but it's still better than most other FE options at this rate.
Want: 100%
Give me something different from Chrom pls.
Lucina
Chance: 1%
If Chrom doesn't get in, I really don't see why Lucina would, she falls under the same problems as him being a blue haired lord that wields swords, looks like Marth and wields Falchion, simply being the opposite gender won't help her being different.
Want: 0%
I'm sorry, but I find her to be as much of a boring option as Chrom, but without some of the funny supports he has through Awakening, therefore taking away the few things I enjoyed about said character.

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Robin chance: 25%
Want:100%
Lucina chance: 10%
Want: 40%

 

[Deleted member]

Both:
Want: 100% - I'll take any character from Awakening. Anyone. Except for maybe Maiden and the Hubba Tester, but I'll take most anyone!

Robin:
Chance: 20% - With how Sakurai aims to diversify newcomers, I see Robin as the most likely assuming Gematsu is outdated and Chrom was replaced.

Lucina:
Chance: 18% - Less than Robin, because as another sword wielding character, she is less unique than Robin. Maybe she could get in over Chrom, but I think Robin would be more likely to take Chrom's spot if he was kicked.

 

[Weeman]

-Robin chance: 15%
Well the Gematsu leak has really screwed with Robin's chances and since the possibility of a fourth FE newcomer is low that's the best i can give him.
-Robin want: 100%
False sense pretty much nailed it, he/she would bring diversity to the FE representation in both gameplay and aesthetics, while also bringing more female representation, as well as representing the tactical side of FE better.

-Lucina chance: 25%
Same reasons as robin, however i could see her becoming a DLC clone character later (assuming the DLC part of the leak is real).
-Lucina want: 20%
Honestly despite the fact that i think Robin would be an ideal choice, i'm by no means a Chrom hater and would have him as the second option regardless. The only thing i see Lucina bringing over Chrom is more female representation, but since i'm not much of a fan of her character i simply prefer Chrom over her.

 

[FalKoopa]

Robin: 5%
Chrom's almost confirmation leaves no place for Robin, unfortunately. As much as a successful and important game Awakening was, I have hard time justifying 2 characters from it.

Want: 100%
He was my preferred FE newcomer. I guess I'll have to wait for the next Micaiah to roll by.

Lucina: 0%
Again, she's in the same situation as Robin, only worse due her similarities to Marth.

Want: 1%
No. I fully realise that Sakurai can make her unique if he got down it, she's really no better than Chrom from a design perspective. The 1% is due to having tried out the Lucina PSA, which is quite good.

 

[Minato Arisato]

Robin:

Chance: 20%

Still have some hope for him. Or her, whichever one is best.

Want: 100%

Yes, please.

Lucina:

Chance: 10%

I'm a little more iffy on her chances, but you never know with Sakurai.

Want: 80%

I want Robin more, but I wouldn't turn my nose up at Lucina. She's awesome.

...I would write more but I'm typing this from my phone and I hate it.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Robin/Lucina Chance: 5% Chrom was likely going to be the FE newcomer anyway, I'm not surprised the Gematsu hurts both of their chances (including Anna's). Chrom was the best representation of Awakening and a great marketing icon for Sakurai to add to the main roster, even if he's not as unique as Robin.

Bandanna Dee prediction: 14.75% This will probably drop as Smash 4 gets closer to its release date.
Captain Toad: 2.46%

 

[Chandeelure]

Bandana Dee: 23.47% (I have a secret weapon that should keep him from dropping too much... No, it isn't my own score.)

DeeLC? XD

 

[AustarusIV]

Robin

Chance: 30%
I was hopeful for Robin before E3, until I saw the Rhythm Heaven enemy which all but confirmed that the Gematsu leak is real.

Want: 100%
God damn it.

Lucina

Chance: 40%
She's a favorite among the staff of Intelligent Systems, but considering that Chrom is the most likely candidate for representation by this point, I'm afraid her chances have gone down.

Want: 80%
I'll gladly take her over Chrom.

 

[Deleted member]

Lucina and Robin have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated these characters, check to see what you've said on their days!

Oh boy... sympathy won't be given! One is challenging her grim fate while the other has the scales tipped away from him/her.
Now... I've played and beaten Awakening recently, so I at least have the knowledge of the biggest contenders. To prepare myself (heh) for this moment, I have made a whole FE chart from least to greatest. BTW, I will bold Lucina and Robin for Groose's convenience.
It might be too late to make one with all things considered with the Gematsu leak, but I don't care.

Misc. Characters: 0%-1%
I would really give characters like Tharja and Owain a 1%, purely because of that poll. Had that poll not exist, I would give them both a 0%. I would also give Anna and Tiki (before she got disconfirmed) a 1% for at least being reoccurring characters within the franchise. Though... that doesn't help when the franchise has so many competitors for a slot.

Chrom & Lucina: 5%
This is a unique concept. It takes two popularly requested characters and puts them in one. The pair-up system is a major part in Awakening; it builds relationships between the characters and you are promoted to do it since they can essentially break the game. The issue is that these characters are vastly different with different looks, builds, and abilities. I’m sure an idea like this would be considered, but it might get glanced over because how much of a technical nightmare it is. The Ice Climbers at least look extremely similar and the animations are the same!

Lucina: 5%
As I’ve mentioned, she’s a popular Fire Emblem character and she is the most popular female in Awakening. But… how much does that mean when she looks like Marth? I’m at least certain that Intelligent Systems will have Sakurai consider her, but she is just too similar to Marth to even consider.

Robin: 10%
S/He was featured in some promotion. S/He plays a major part in Awakening. S/He can be unique. However, s/he isn’t as popular as Chrom is. Heck, the male is behind Chrom AND Owain on the poll while the female is just below Lucina. While uniqueness is being pushed in this game, Chrom is just the star that’s going to burn bright in the end. Still, I find him/her to have a legitimate chance for, again, having some sort of uniqueness and Awakening fans do at least know who the avatar is.

Roy: 20%
He is a beloved Melee veteran and is one of the most requested characters worldwide, especially in Japan. While this is the case, the series has moved past Roy. You see all of the characters that I’m mentioning? They’re from Awakening; Roy is not from Awakening. If it wasn’t for that game, Roy would stand a much more legitimate chance. I bet that Sakurai will at least consider him. Definitely a good option for DLC

Ike: 90%
He’s already in. I should state how much of a popular character he still is. There have been numerous arguments and debates over Ike fans and Chrom supporters, that is how much people like Ike. Though, saying this is a bit redundant as he is already in…

Chrom: 95%
He is by far the most popular character in Awakening, but he isn’t unique by any means. When we re-rated him after the Direct, I rated him 5% lower than his fellow Gematsu swordsman Shulk because Chrom doesn’t really have anything that makes him stand out, unlike Shulk who has the Monado to give him unique abilities (for reference, I originally gave Shulk an 80% and Chrom a 75% before E3). Despite this, Awakening will push him in for how popular this game is, how popular he is, and how Awakening saved the franchise. This is the character that I bet Intelligent Systems will push to Sakurai. With the Gematsu leak being almost completely real, Chrom has the best chance out of all the characters that I’ve mentioned thus far.

Marth: 100%
He’s a shoo-in for every game. He’s important and is basically Fire Emblem’s Pikachu. He’s not going anywhere.

In total, the overall chance is 325%. I am 100% positive that we will get another Fire Emblem character. I find it unlikely that we will give a fourth one (hence the remaining 25%), but the option is still there.

As for want...
Marth and Ike would both get a 100%. I haven't played their games, but I would hate to lose both of these characters.
Now that I've played Awakening, are my thoughts still the same about Fire Emblem and Smash? Do I give a damn about who's in it? Yes and no... but mostly no.

The thing is, I've played Awakening (and I loved it!) and I still don't give a damn about who gets in. Hell, if we rated Tharja and Owain again, I would give them a 90% and a 100% respectively. I actually like these characters and if they got in, I would be pleasantly surprised. Though, you wouldn't see me going off to actively supporting them because it's pointless and there is a part of me that would be upset if they somehow got in over Roy, Chrom, Robin, and Lucina because I would hate to see their supporters get angry and upset. Thankfully, this will never happen.
Again, there's the part of me not giving much of a damn about Fire Emblem characters.

Chrom walks out of this with a 10%. I really don't want him and I find him to be incredibly bland. So bland, that I call him "Captain McBlushy Bland." I guess Awakening warmed me up to him, but not by much... I hope that they make him interesting.

Roy gets a 0% because I'm terribly uninterested in him returning. Then we have the matter of Lucina, who I would also give a 0% in want but I'll get to that soon. Finally... there's Robin who I would give a 25% for, again, reasons I will get to soon.
Every other Fire Emblem character is going to get a 0% from me. I'm terribly uninterested in Anna, Micaiah, Leif, and the like.

Lucina Want: 0%
Honestly, I find her to be more bland than Chrom... that is a freaking accomplishment if I ever saw one. I cared less for her than I did Chrom. There is also the matter of her design. Her design is basically a female Marth! I don't think that she has a lot of potential moveset wise either. So, if she got in, I wouldn't be thrilled.
Robin Want: 25%
I like him more than Chrom because he actually brings something to the table with all sorts of magic and sword moves (I went through 99.99% of Awakening with my character using magic). Though, potential aside, I find him to be incredibly bland as well. He's supposed to be me and I named him after me... but he's nothing like me. I can't relate to this guy at all!

There. That is all I have to say...
MONADO! FLAME SHIELD ME!

Bandana Dee Prediction: 19.98%
...This isn't going to end well. This is definitely a day where no one will be given sympathy in.
Captain Toad Prediction: 7.35%
A slight increase in chance because he has a new game.

 

[Pureownege75]

Lucina and Robin Chance: 5%
Lucina and Robin Want: 0%
Never played Fire Emblem (although I'm planning on getting Awakening in the near future) so I no nothing about these characters and don't really want them. I'm sure they aren't bad, but I just don't know anything about them. Their chances are low, because let's be real, if we get another Fire Emblem rep, it's Chrom. I'm almost 100% sure that Gematsu is real, and expect Chrom to be in this game, and Fire Emblem may be popular, but it's not four characters popular

 

[Pacack]

Robin:

Chance: 21.4%
Far less likely than before, but still possible. If the Gematsu leak is fake, then she's by far the most likely candidate, imo. I gave Robin a 57% chance last time, and I gave the Gematsu leak a 20% chance of being fake. That's 11.4%. However, even if it's real, then there's still the off chance that the leaker was told "Awakening Main Character" and filled in the gaps (5%) or that we'll get a second Fire Emblem character (there's like a 7.5% chance of that and Robin takes about 5% of it).

Want: 100%
One of my most wanted at this point.


Lucina:

Chance: 2.81%
I don't expect her at all, but she's definitely possible. I give the Gematsu leak a 20% chance of being fake and I gave her a 3% chance before, which I feel needs to be boosted to about 7%. That's 1.4%. Then there's the possibility that the leaker was told "Awakening Lord" and he interpreted it as Chrom instead of Lucina (.66% since they'd probably mention the gender). And, finally, the possibility of her getting in as a second Fire Emblem character (.75%)

Want: 20%
Not my cup of tea. Still another blue haired, sword-weilding Lord. The only difference is that she's a woman and a somewhat interesting character. However, since Marth's been nerfed to high heaven, she might fulfill the niche that I was so fond of before.


Predictions:
Bandana Dee: 24%
Captain Toad: 12%

[collapse=Current Top Ten]
Shulk 85% (RTC: 91.70%)
Chrom 70% (RTC: 88.82%)
Chorus Men 67.5% (RTC: 81.25%)
King K. Rool 65% (RTC: 53.62%)
Takamaru 60% (RTC: 38.12%)
Ridley: 55% (RTC: 48.41%)
Robin 21.4% (RTC: 25.83%)
Bandana Dee 20% (RTC: 24.72%)
Isaac 17.5% (RTC: 30.40%)
Dixie Kong 15% (RTC: 40.85%)[/collapse]

 

[chronomantic]

-Robin
Chance 5% - Sal's leaker is probably right. And please even if he weren't Chrom is the face of Awakening.
Want 0% - ugh no more avatar 'characters' please.

-Lucina
Chance 20% - maybe Sal's leaker got confused? (lol hopefully) if not Chrom takes priority, again.
Want 60%- if I had to pick a new FE character it would be her, even over Chrom.

 

[Burigu]

How did I miss Snake and Lucas day? I was here yesterday and it was still Takamaru and Isaac day, I wanted to lower even more Snake (just kidding).

Lucina
Chance: 5%
I would give her 0% but there is always the chance that Sakurai see something in her, that we are not aware of.
She would not be a Marth skin that would be ridiculous, skins so far are basically the same characters or a different gender of a generic character or avatar.

Want: 80%
I put her as my second most wanted so for the sake of consistency

Robin
Chance: 10%
Not very likely, but could bring an unique concept of Fire Emblem, yet again chances are slim

Want: only if female 40% ( this is supposed to be a joke) I know we would get both genders

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Want: only if female 40%

Robin, being a character with 2 genders, is quite likely to have alternate costumes. Kind of like the Wii Fit Trainer.
IF he/she's in of course.

 

[Burigu]

Robin, being a character with 2 genders, is quite likely to have alternate costumes. Kind of like the Wii Fit Trainer.
IF he/she's in of course.

I know I can't put my personal preference in the post?, we all know that if magically Robin is in he/she will have both, I was only joking, but for other lost souls out there I edited my previous post, I am not dumb enough to believe we would only get one gender. The lost souls part is also not meant to insult you be the way hope you don't take it that way

 

[YoshiandToad]

Lucina:
Chance: 10%
Going against:

• Gematsu Leak
• Chrom
• Too similar to Marth visually and fighting style. Hell, she even disguises herself AS him.
  
• Another blue haired sword lord who weilds the Falchion. Like we need three(providing Chrom's in)

Going for:

• Popular in Japan
• Most popular female character in FE now
• Is...a woman I guess?

Want: 0%
Marth is one of my least favourite Smash characters of all time. Adding another 'Marth' would just annoy me even more than Chrom who has at least got some Ike in him.

He's still just as pointless an addition though.

Robin:
Chance: 10%
Going against:

• Isn't based off Marth OR Ike. Hence his/her popularity is lower.
• Isn't as well known due to customizable face and abilities.

Going for:

• Is the only member of the Awakening tritagonists that is actually offering something different.
• Isn't a redundant Marth/Ike mixture or a clone of one of the two in the making.
  
• Can be both male and female.
• Can wield magic, and as a tactician summons up a very important aspect of the series.
• Has the most options available to them out of all of Fire Emblem characters.

Sadly Robin was never as likely as Chrom even before Gematsu.

Want: 95%
Did you know there's more to FE outside anime swordsmen with blue hair? If you just got your knowledge from Smash then you might not. Let's fix this by adding another aspect to the series than a character who was purposely created to be a mix of the two most popular Lords; both of whom are confirmed to return in Smash 4.

Yes I'd take something; ANYTHING over another version of Marth or Ike. Hell; declone Roy completely and I'll take him back happily over both Chrom and Lucina.

 

[Rockaphin]

Lucina:
Chance: 5%
Want: 80%

Robin:
Chance: 10%
Want: 97%

 

[Burigu]

Lucina:

• Another blue haired sword lord who weilds the Falchion. Like we need three(providing Chrom's in)

I have never understood why the Falchion is a factor here, sure the Sword has the same name but the design is completely different, even showing atributes the original never had, such as glowing when the events in time are about to change and the glow it gets after the awakening ritual. So it's like having two different swords that share a name.

So if Chrom and Lucina are both in, I guess you have a point with the Falchion but as Marth and Chrom wield different looking versions of the same sword, this is hardly and issue.

Want: 0%
Marth is one of my least favourite Smash characters of all time. Adding another 'Marth' would just annoy me even more than Chrom who has at least got some Ike in him.

The only similarities between Lucina and Marth are the clothes, and Lucina's character is not like Marth's so theorically speaking having both in don't automatically translate in having 2 Marths.
Even if we take into account "their similiar style" I am sure developers can make characters unique even if they are from the same franchise, that's why I have never understood the "Chrom too similar to Marth argument", if they go lazy and make Chrom a clone I agree but otherwise I think people subestimate the developers in that regard.

So I guess Chrom also has some of Hector in him since Ike was based on Hector's character, if Chrom is the fusion of so many characters we got ourselves the ultimate FE character (only joking here).

Edit for reference of the different Falchions

Marth's Falchion

Chrom's and Lucina's Falchion

 

[Kalimdori]

Their chances are so similar I might as well lump them together:
Robin/Lucina Chance: 3%
There are really only 2 ways that this could be a thing. Either 1: Sakurai changed his mind about adding in Chrom from the time the leaker got the info (Unlikely, but possible, and that's assuming the leak is true, which it most likely is) or 2: We get 4 FE characters. Both of those seem really unlikely, and those are the only ways that they could get in.

Although masked Lucina will probably be an alt for Marth, but that's a different story.

Robin Want: 100%
Fire Emblem Diversity! Please! I don't want another blue haired sword wielding lord!
Lucina Want: 10%
I don't want another blue haired sword wielding lord!

 

[ThunderSageNun]

So I guess Chrom also has some of Hector in him since Ike was based on Hector's character, if Chrom is the fussion of so many characters we got ourselves the ultimate FE character (only joking here).

You know, I never thought of the similarities Hector and Ike have, that might explain why Ike ended up being my 2nd favorite lord after playing Path of Radiance, but I'm getting off topic here

 

[Narwalgod]

Robin

Chances 33.87%
Liked by most of Intelligent, Unique, fairly popular in japan, he has more chances than you give him credit for.

Want 100%
For once i have the opportunity to have a visually and functunally unique fire emblem rep.

Lucina
Chances 11.13%
Want 11%

 

[andimidna]

Robin: 16%
Robin Want: 88%

Lucina: 10%
Lucina Want: 99%

Ok, time for a 3rd and hopefully final change:

Robin chance: 13%
Not too requested. Maybe characters aren't being picked FOR uniqueness, maybe popular characters are getting uniqueness pushed on to them.
Lucina chance: 19%
Basically as big of a deal as Chrom, and if it wasn't for the leak, I'd be rating the 2 almost equally.

I'm having trouble ranking the chances of Fire Emblem characters at this point. I think I'll stick with this though.

What I want out of the remaining fire emblem characters:
Anna>Lucina>Robin>Micaiah>Tharja>everybody else>Chrom>Roy is my opinion.
I like pretty much all fire emblem characters, and these 2 are both popular and important to the most popular and important fire emblem game.
But I doubt them both now because of Gematsu.
Oh well, I bet they'll make Chrom unique. It sounds crazy, but I think it will happen. Another thing that's not impossible is 4 Fire emblem characters. I think it's very unlikely, and I'd bet money on 3, but I still think 5 is more likely than a measly 2. I think only having Marth and Ike is impossible.

Bandana Dee: 19%
You guys are going to overrate this nobody again. Heh, I'm willing to bet some of those ridiculous 70s from before will get higher because of the new Kirby game... Even though it won't be affecting smash bros. I mean, have we even seen any Triple Deluxe content? Well, based Sakurai is focusing on Kid Icarus this time, sorry, this guy is nothing compared to Kirby, Dedede, Meta Knight, Pit, and Palutena.

Bandana Dee: 23.47% (I have a secret weapon that should keep him from dropping too much... No, it isn't my own score.)

Let me guess, you're going to invite a bunch of biased Bandana Dee fans so they can flood the thread with 50+ ratings? What a great weapon. I just can't wait to see his completely inaccurate final score.

Captain Toad: 4%
Pretty much the cutest thing I've ever seen. But he has close to no chance since Toad is semi-deconfirmed and well, why would they pick him over Toad? We don't have any 3d world content yet, and this game was obviously a result of the great reactions his mini games got back in December.
If these 2 were Pokemon, I'd consider them. But choosing Pokemon works differently so Greninja doesn't help them and I find Sceptile to be more likely than these 2, and he's not even likely.
Overall, we're down to the final characters and a Kirby newcomer seems basically impossible and there are 2 obvious Mario frontrunners- and their names are not captain toad.