Bandana Dee:
Chance: 4%
I rank him as the 29th most likely newcomer. I seriously doubt him. I'll go through as many points as I can.
1. "He's his own character"
No. He's your everyday Waddle Dee, wearing a Bandana.
Not even your everyday Waddle Dee using a spear, generic Waddle Dees use spears in Triple Deluxe:
http://youtu.be/YeqAbX5q1WI?t=1m12s
And now, there's not just one Waddle Dee wearing a Bandana:
So this is definitely not a singular, unique character. He's definitely one of many Waddle/Bandana Dees.
2. "He is the 4th character of the 4 main Kirby characters"
All of the key-chains, artwork, etc. that feature the main 3 and Bandana Waddle Dee is just based off Return to Dreamland.
There isn't some official main 4 characters, he was marketed as a 4th Kirby character for and because of Return to Dreamland.
Now, let's pretend that this were true for a second, that he was an official 4th character.
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Hmm... maybe not.
He is not the only viable option for Kirby. I think his chances are only 3% higher than Magolor's
3. "He is unique because of his spear"
Why should I care about a spear? How would this differentiate from a sword significantly enough to catch Sakurai's interest?
For all attacks on the ground, would this be different from Marth and Toon Link's style?
Honestly, this is my opinion on what I see his moveset being:
Marth and Toon Link are both quick sword fighters. Bandana Dee is small like Toon Link. He'd use the spear for the majority of his attacks like Marth with his sword. He wouldn't use items like Toon Link, but he would have similar slashes and stabs to Marth. He only has real potential for a good recovery. Parasol is not a good choice because Parasol Waddle Dees appear in Smash Run already, so they're getting referenced just fine. But the spear-copter would be new. I can't imagine it moving extremely dissimilar to Little Mac's recovery though- he spins straight upward and falls slowly, it isn't very effective as a recovery but is decent for attacking. Also, I'm betting on Dixie Kong being in this game atm. This could easily be wrong, but I picture her recovery being her hair spin, and it would function very similarly to this- disregarding the chances of both characters for a second and assuming both make it.
He would mostly need an entire moveset invented for him to become interesting and appealing, and while that's been done so many times before, it certainly doesn't help him. He is lacking here.
4. "Based Sakurai"
He isn't the only developer. We got TWO Kirby newcomers last time, another Kirby newcomer already is very unlikely.
His bias has been almost completely directed towards Kid Icarus. Kid Icarus has almost double the amount of Smash Run enemies than any other series. It has 2 full stages, 1 veteran with a revamped moveset, and 1 newcomer with a trailer/moveset that is nothing less than a love letter to Kid Icarus. Kirby has had 2 veterans and 1 returning stage from Brawl, and a few Smash Rn enemies, but not even half what KI has right now. We also have 2 KI trophies and 2 KI assists. While Kirby has 1 trophy and 1 assist. Pit being announced alongside the main... 7, Pit being in both box-arts over Fox, Olimar, Zelda, Charizard, Lucario or Greninja.
I had always seen it as him and Palutena are in competition, and with her confirmation I doubt him more.
5. "Rainbow Curse raises his chances"
No, it doesn't. Triple Deluxe just came out, and it has yet to receive any content, right? Rainbow Curse won't just miss this installment, it will miss it by 2 games. If we were talking about Pokemon, sure, I'd consider it but still find it unlikely. Hell, even if we were talking about Fire Emblem, same thing. But with Kirby, not a chance. I'll call it a minor possibility instead of just impossible once we see something like a Triple Deluxe stage or trophy.
Is he highly requested? No. He is only popular or talked about on Smashboards, and even his popularity here has been very recent. I'm pretty sure his thread was only at around Page 20 at the beginning of the year. Just because a bunch of people on this website all started liking him doesn't make him any more likely.
Is he popular? No. I just looked back to old ratings. I think this support started out as a joke and has shifted to legitimate support for some odd reason. His want score here used to be in the 30s, and his want score on Gamefaqs was like 9%. Nobody is really requesting him. Prince Fluff and Magolor seem more requested (I think). But overall, a Kirby newcomer is not wanted, and I find it extremely unlikely. Compared to so many other series... it's just not happening. With the leak, there are those 3 and a very small few left after that. Is he going to get in over a retro newcomer? A DK newcomer? A Metroid newcomer? A Golden Sun newcomer? Veterans?
Is he appealing? As a fighter, not really. A generic enemy design + a type of hat + a weapon that is basically the same as something very common on the roster. The design and moveset potential is just not that interesting. I believe his reactions throughout the Smash community would be dominantly negative.
Is he recent? Yea, but unless your a Pokemon who cares?
He'd need to be much more important with larger recurring roles to make up for where he is lacking in other categories.
I know you guys like him, but he really isn't likely for all of the reasons stated, so I am sorry for all of his fans on here.
The only other newcomers that I think will happen are Chrom, Shulk, Chorus Kids, DK newcomer (either K Rool or Dixie), Retro newcomer (popular not historical-- Takamaru), and Ridley. Isaac and a Zelda Newcomer follow as decent maybes. Everything else is ranked below a 30% from me.
Kirby chart:
Kirby: always 100%
Dedede: always 100%
Meta Knight: 100% (I don't think he'll be DLC, I think they'll balance him in time, he's too important to leave out)
Bandana Waddle Dee: 4%
Magolor: 1%
Prince Fluff: 0.7%
Dark Matter: 0.6%
Others: 0.5% combined
I think a Kirby newcomer has a total chance of 6.8%, so Bandana Dee is definitely the frontrunner at 4%, but he's barely a contender when considered against every character from other series.
Also, Meta Knight has yet to be confirmed. His only possibility now is a secret character. I expect secret newcomers and secret veterans, but it would be a bit of help if the Kirby trio was all confirmed and out of the way. I'd probably raise his score 0.5% if Meta Knight was at E3 like I thought he would be.
Want: 0%
No, I've already said how much I've hated how his fanbase here has acted. And how they forced an (IMO) unappealing small fry down the throats of everybody here, including those who just don't give a ****. I'm very excited for the day his trophy is revealed. (assist is possible too)
Sorry but that is all I can say. I find nothing about his design, abilities, or personality interesting or appealing in the slightest. I support almost everybody, he is one of the few characters I hate and his "crew" is all to blame for that.
Pre:
Ghirahim: 15%
Impa: 7%
Why are people predicting that Impa will do better than Ghirahim?
Do we think that she's more likely? I certainly don't.
After she plummeted to a 4% last rating and Ghirahim zoomed up to the 20s... that would be an odd twist IMO.
Anyways, Ghirahim will probably be ranked amongst the Fire Emblem characters we rated yesterday for the same reasons except Chrom. And Impa, well, she doesn't really have anything going for her but she's actually really cool now. Just for the hell of it I'll also predict that a major increase in want will happen for Impa (rather than in chance).
