Yay! I get ten veteran nominations and can choose between one of two characters! Useless!
Except they have serious history with Nintendo, and it's not that people don't know them, but the older gaming generation does. Jiro, literally, is a brand new character who no generation knows about.
That will change over time. As of now, he is relatively obscure, but as part of a generation of gamers grows up having played his game, he will resonate with them much like R.O.B., Mr. Game & Watch, and the Ice Climbers.
Hmm, Nintendo Icon and Veteran Smash character vs. Someone know one knows about.
Again, people will know Jiro over time. Besides, Sakurai noted in his interview that Nintendo hasn't created much new characters or franchises recently - Jiro is one of those exceptions, so I think Sakurai will at least consider him.
As for Pichu, there isn't even character data for it; Sakurai does not appear to have intended Pichu to return, and I don't think he will revive a character he didn't even intend to bring back to the game that game before SSB4. Besides, Pichu is criticized in the community where it really matters - the Smash Bros. community.
I only see Pichu returning if Game Freak particularly wants it's return, but I doubt it at this point.
The Last Story is out in Japan, and has been selling better than the extremely hyped up Xenoblade. I can read up on it, and if you did you would know Kanan is a main character, and by all the promotional art you can tell she is the face of the series. At least Kanan and Krystal aren't Spin-Dash characters who play very similar to Sonic.
I
know Kanan is on the box cover and promotional art; I've even seen Youtube videos of the game. I didn't walk into this discussion without basic knowledge of Kanan.
However, I do agree that while she isn't necessarily the character all players play as, she
is, from a theoretical standpoint, the main character of the Last Story. So I agree with your point there.
As for Jiro being a generic spin-dash character, we can't predict his moveset for sure until his game comes out. However, he has enough potential that he would not need to function in any way similar to Sonic. Sonic is all about speed; I see Jiro as more of the heavy, hard-hitting character. Besides, just because both spin-dash doesn't mean they will be very similar at all; we have plenty of sword users in Brawl who act nothing alike, and I can't see how this means Sonic and Jiro would be similar in any way.
Looking at this post of mine now, this argument basically boils down to "we can't say anything about Jiro until we know more about his game", and that's my final words on this subject for now.
Ice Climbers - 95%
They may not be extremely important in the great scheme of Nintendo, but their completely unique moveset makes them a worthy, obscure retro representative.
Deserving (5)
Tails - 20%
If we get a second Sonic rep, Tails is arguably the most deserving. However, it adds a burden to any licensing deals with Sega for the SSB4 team to not ask for just one, but two characters. In addition, Sakurai is somewhat hesitant on third-party additions in the first place.
I don't think third-party companies need two reps each, but I don't think the inclusion of Tails would annoy me in any way.
Neutral (3)
Nominations:
Toon Link x10
Tetris Block x5
Prediction:
Mike Jones - 15%