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Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

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Day is long overdue for an end. Working on new day now, watch this post...
 
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If there was a character so hated, it was definitely the Mii's. They had a reputation for beinng loathed among the gaming community, despite being one of the more beloved characters to casual gamers. Yet there was still that question of would Mii's make the cut and it was always prevalent.

The answer has yet to be determined, but the likelihood score was a mixed bag leaning towards a "no". Mii got a mediocre 2.25, so a lot of doubting was going on. The lethargic support was also present since the Mii did poorly with a 2. It seems as people would be content with not seeing them as playable. Jhonnykiller42 continued to laugh at the lack of a Mii's appearance and happily enjoyed his five nominations.

The audience was patience about who else would be next. A few Lumas were coming inside the stadium. People were quickly suspicious that Rosalina was next and as expected, she came in as if her body was glowing. She walked confidently to the platform, viewing all the damage the stadium had received. When she reached the middle of the platform, she stopped, hoping that people would accept her ad a potential candidate in Smash.

Day Forty has began! Today, you will be rating Rosalina and predicting what Lucario gets tomorrow. Chibi-Robo is also eligible for revotes.
 
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Rosalina

The circumstances will prevent her from being playable this game. She has to contend with four stronger competitions (Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and even Waluigi) and would definitely not get the fifth slot. Even if she were to get in, it would be as the sixth Mario character, but considering how unlikely six slots for Mario is along with there still being three stronger choices, it really doesn't matter. Not to mention she looks to becoming relegated to being a spin-off character, which is practically a death sentence for any hopes of being playable. It doesn't help that she isn't a popular request.

0 in likelihood. I also give her a 0 in want. While I do like her, I have zero interest in her inclusion and feel as there are much better choices for a Mario rep.

Nominate Mach Rider, Geno, Deoxys, Lip, and Leaf (FE).

Predict that Lucario gets a 2.79 in likelihood due to the fallacious assumption that they need to replace the last gen mascot with the latest mascot. I'll be providing a big case as to why I feel Lucario will stay for this game.
 

SmashShadow

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Want:2.7
Liklihood:1.28
She of all the possible Mario reps that could get in is definately at the bottom but not out of the question completely. With a small amount of characters speculated to get in too and nobody being able to confirm if we'll get a new Mario rep this time around it's not very likely she gets in. If we do get a rep it will almost certainly go to either Bowser Jr., Toad or Waluigi.

Lucario: 4.11

Noms: 5x Masked man
 

Ghirahilda

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Want: 5
Not counting Paper Mario (because I think that him can represent his own series), Rosalina is my most wanted Mario newcomer, but...
Likelihood: 2
I think that she needs to compete with more "better" characters choices. I think that Bowser Jr & Toad are the mot likely.

Defensive: Rosalina is a new character for Mario series. appearing in only 4 games, but her fanbase grow up in a galaxyal level. Also, if she appeared in the same time as Daisy and Waluigi, I think that she will be the most wanted.

Nominations: Olimar x5

Lucario prediction: 4.77
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

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Rosalina, I give her a 2.5 likelihood. While Rosalina would prove to be a very unique fighter, the main thing that's hindering her is the fact that she has only played a supporting role in the Super Mario Galaxy titles. She's also at risk of being demoted to being a mere spin-off character, just like with Princess Daisy. A touch and go matter, to say the least.

Nominations
1: Leon Powalski (x3)
2: Bandanna Waddle Dee (x2)

Edit: If my want rating for Rosalina wasn't accepted yesterday, it's 4.5.
 

Robert of Normandy

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Want : 2
Likelihood: 2

Her time has passed. She's a coll character with some really interesting abilities, but I feel thaat if she was to be put in Smash at some point, it should have been in Brawl. Plus, there are too many other viable candidates for new Mario rep for her to even really be considered at this point in time.

That said, she's still well remembered(certainly more than that starfish in SMG2), so who knows. Sheik managed to get into Melee despite a few Zelda games having come out in the interim, so they may be a chance for her yet

Prediction for Lucario: 4

Nominations:
Waluigi x4
Doc Mario x1
 

N3ON

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Want: 2.5
I'm giving her the same want score I gave to the other previous Mario characters because honestly I don't care which one makes it, I would enjoy playing as all of them.

Likelihood: 0.35
Rosalina is a cool character who could work well in Smash, and maybe one day she'll get in, but this time her chances are very much against her. Sure she has some popularity and some demand (more in Japan than here), but she is still outmatched everywhere and in most regards by either Toad, Bowser Jr, Waluigi, or Paper Mario. They are more popular, they are more requested, they have appeared in more games (well, tied with Paper Mario), and they are much more likely. Honestly, even though there are other good Mario characters, anybody other than one of those four (I'm not counting Geno in any of this BTW, he's his own case) has very minimal chances.

However, Rosalina and Galaxy will probably get decent amount of content in SSB4, and I'm hoping that she actually is an AT this time around like the rumors said last time. I think that's the most she'll get though.

Nomz:
x5 Marth
 

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鉄腕
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Want: 2.5
Likeliness: 0

I like her, definitely my favorite of the Peaches. I may be wrong with this, but she may have been a planned AT in Brawl, right or wrong though, that's the role I'm betting on her getting for Smash 4 (fits her quite well IMO).

x5 Ganondorf
 

Spydr Enzo

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(Rosalina) Want: ~ 0.5
-The only reason that I don't want to see Rosalina in Smash is because there are several better choices for a Mario candidate, several other characters that are FAR more deserving than Rosalina. There's also the fact that Rosalina is simply another princess like Peach, and how much longer she will remain a relevant character is questionable.

(Rosalina) Likelihood: ~ 0.5
-Rosalina is hardly deserving to be in Smash when compared to other Mario candidates like Bowser Jr., Toad, and Paper Mario. This fact decreases her chances significantly. I'll admit that she has maybe a very remote chance, but the competition is quite fierce. Don't expect her as a playable character.

(Lucario) Prediction: ~ 4.05
 

Opossum

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Poor Mii...

Anyway, Rosalina time. Raaa...


Want: 2. She could be cool, starbits, Lumas, a force field and launch stars as specials, and all.


Likelihood: 0.4

In short, too much competition.

Predicting a 3.67 for Lucario, though it should be higher...

Nominate Ganondorf x5
 

Jhonnykiller45

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Rosalina:
Want- 2.5
Likelihood- 0.5

While I do prefer her over Daisy, she still is a pretty insignificant character in the Mario series due to having only 4 appearances and possibily going away from the main Mario series to be a 'spin-off only' character, much like Daisy did.

Prediction for Lucario- 4

Nominations
Dr. Mario x4
Snake x2
Gannondorf x3
Mach Rider

SSBF, you misspelled my name as "Jhonnykiller42" again. I mean, I know I'm the meaning of life, but still, 45 is the best number
 

BKupa666

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Want: 0.1
Likelihood: 0.05

She has a decent chance of being a Peach alt. costume, but very little at all of being playable on her own. I have yet to see anyone but M&SG suggest her as a possibility, which really puts her out of the running when other Mario characters are much more recurring and popular. Even if she were to be shoehorned in as a Peach clone, Rosalina still has competition with Daisy, so...yeah. Not happening.

Predicting 3.65 for Lucario
Nominate King Hippo x3, Groose x1, Hades x1
 

deuxhero

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Likely: 1
From a finished sub series (and minor even in the 2nd Galaxy), not that big in the scheme of Mario, and no moveset.
Want:
.5


Nominate: Because Nintendo renewed the ED trademark: Alexandra Roivas x5
 

lobotheduck21

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wait, were's the lyn flavor

want 4: SMG was tied for my fave wii game, and dis spite what many people think, the only similarity that she shares with peach is that they're both princesses

likely hood 0.5: too much competition

prediction: 3.33

nominate mr. stevenson x 5
 

Xhampi

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For Rosalina
Want : 1.5
I do like her as a Mario character but don't want to see her in smash as a playable one

Likelihood : 0.5
There is too many obstacles to her too be a viable candidate : Toad, Bowser Jr, and Paper Mario to named the more importants one. The only way I can see her happen is if Sakurai want to repressent Super Mario Galaxy not only with a stage and musics but also with a playable character, but as we all know, we didn't get a character for Super Mario Sunshine so there's no reason that it happen this time.

Nomination
Mr Stevenson X5

Edit : I forgot the prediction ^^
Prediction for Lucario : 3.75
 
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Rosalina:

Want: 1.5
Don't really care if she gets in or not, but I'd be a bit upset if she got in instead of the likes of Waluigi, Toad, and Bowser Jr.
I also feel that her over Daisy would be something of an insult, to be honest.

Likelihood: 1
While it's unknown if Mario will even get a Newcomer, anyone that isn't Toad, Waluigi, or Bowser Jr. are horribly outmatched at this point in time.
 

SethTheMage

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Rosalina is my favorite Mario character, and as such, my most wanted Mario newcomer, but I don't think she has much of a chance of showing up as a playable character in this game, unfortunately. She has a lot of competition for a Mario rep (Bowser Jr, Waluigi, Toad, Paper Mario, etc.), and, like others have said, she is at risk of being reduced to a spin-off only character. Whereas I can see her being very unique with cosmic magic abilities and Luma attacks, I think she will probably be an AT or part of the background in a Galaxy-themed stage.

Want: 5
Likeliness: 1.5

Nomination:
Black Mage x5
 

MelMoe

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Nominations

Marth x5

Voting & Discussing

Rosalina

Personal Bias: 3.1
Likelihood: 0.5

I really like Rosalina as a character. She's a great addition to the Mario series & I hope she stays as a prominent figure in future Mario titles. However, since the Mario Galaxy games may have reached its limit, Rosalina could be reduced to a mere spin-off character. Her space gimmicks would make an interesting moveset.

I think Rosalina is one of the better Mario characters that might be considered. But, she has major competition will Bowser Jr. & Toad.

Prediction

Lucario: 3.45

:phone:
 

DMurr

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Rosalina could be interesting but there's too much competition for her to get in as a character.

Want: 1
Likeliness: 0.5

Nominate Geno x5.

:phone:
 

Robotic Wind

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Nominations: Olimar X5

Prediction: Lucario 4.2

Now on to Rosalina. She doesn't have my attenton. Too many Mairio characters have a better chance and most likely one spot for them all to fit.

Want: 1.5
Liklihood: 1.2
 

kisamefishfries

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The fact that were discussing this is sad.
Want: .5
likeliness: 0
Rosalina should be an alt costume for Peach at best .... Seeing how you don't need to wait for revotes for an alt costume I suggest retrying with that.

prediction: 3

noms: Demise(alt gannon)x5
 

SmasherMaster

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Rosalina
Want: 1
Likeliness:.5

Lucario: 3

Nominations
Bandana Dee
Princess Daisy
Ganondorf
Scizor
Meowth
 

jigglover

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Want: 4.8 I really like her, She is most definitely my most wanted mario new-comer, but I usually go with bowser junior since I logical likelihood score is about 1.98, which is what I'm going for.

@Shinpichu, At the time of brawl Rosalina had only been in one (possibly two, I'm not sure about mario kart wii's release date) game(s), and it was less than ONE year old, about 8 months I think. If she missed her chance in Brawl, then she never had one.
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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Rosalina is a fairly interesting character and a viable candidate in my books. After watching a video of a Rosalina hack, I became to like her even more. However, I would prefer Bowser Jr., Toad, or Paper Mario over her. While she has the potential to be a fairly unique character, she still comes off as a peach clone. Not as bad as Daisy but close. Still, she could represent the Mario Galaxy series which has yet to be represented in Smash.

Want: 2.42
Likeliness; 1.05

Lucario's Prediction: 3.9

Noms:

M. Bison x3
Baby Mario and Baby Luigi x2
 

Baskerville

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Want: 5 - I really like her as a character and could work as a magic user, she has shown to have some power in Galaxy so they could get some inspiration from that.

Likliness: 1 - Hasn't shown any signs of fighting and having way too much competition in her hands.

Lucario: 5
Nominations: Ganondorf x5
 
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Deleted member

Guest
Will write flavor down for Day Forty-One and Thirty-Nine after I do some studying.

Rosalina gets a .84 in likelihood and a 2.4 in want. N3ON wins five extra nominations.

Day Forty-Two has began! Today, you will be voting for Lucario and predicting what Ganondorf gets tomorrow. Isaac has also been added to the list of eligible re-votes.

Also important is that this Friday I am going to be going on a vacation with my dad and won't be back until late Sunday night. So I'm going to need someone to take over from Friday-Monday while I'm gone.
 

SmashShadow

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Want:5 Mewtwo vs Lucario
Liklihood: 4.67
Pokemon is a very iffy series in terms of characters staying because of them being popularity dependant and some believe that due to our large amount of pokemon reps already that we'll need to replace him to make room for a new rep from 5th gen. But there is no evidence that we're getting a new rep for pokemon anyways. I'm also confident that sakurai wouldn't want another Mewtwo situation.

Ganondorf: 5

nom: 5x Masked Man
 

lobotheduck21

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Want 5: He's my main in brawl
Likely hood 3.5: It would be higher if zoroak was in the equation, but even if zoroak was in it's not like all 3 can't be implamented.

Prediction: 4.89 (why we are revoting on ganondorf is ludicris)

noms: Mr. Stevenson x 5
 

Robert of Normandy

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Lucario
Want: 4
Likelihoood: 4.5
The only real reason anyone thinks Lucario will be cut is because people are idiots who can't see the difference between a fox, Anubis, and Geigue. Really, there's not much to suggest he'll be cut.

Nominations:
Doc Mario x5

Prediction for Ganondorf: 4.81
 

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鉄腕
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Want: 5
Likeliness: 4.75

Meh. I got nothing at the moment. If someone dumb comes along though I may speak up, there's a lot of stupid arguments when it comes to Pokemon characters.

x5 Waluigi
 
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Deleted member

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Lucario:
Want: 5
I am against cuts.

Likeliness: 4.5
There is the off chance that Lucario gets replaced by a later Generation Pokemon, but when people actually do their research instead of blindly assuming Lucario replaced Mewtwo and that Lucario has more merits that warranted his inclusion other than "advertisement", they would see that being replaced isn't as likely as they once thought.
 

deuxhero

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Lucario: Likelihood: 4.9: The only vet cuts except Pichu have been due to time constraints which can't be predicted. Outside of the guests and MAYBE Toon Link, I don't see any cuts after the recation to the ones in Brawl
Want: 2: Eh.

Nominate: Kalas x5
 

Phaazoid

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ganon prediction - 4.98
because there's always THAT GUY

Lucario want and prediction - 5

I don't like the idea of any vets being cut.


x5 shy guy
 
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Lucario
Want: 4
Likelihoood: 4.5
The only real reason anyone thinks Lucario will be cut is because people are idiots who can't see the difference between a fox, Anubis, and Geigue. Really, there's not much to suggest he'll be cut.

Nominations:
Doc Mario x5

Prediction for Ganondorf: 4.81
But but but, he's not this gen's mascot. He HAS to be replaced for it is a tradition to replace the old humanoid Pokemon with the latest one and he's like irrelevant.

Lucario

Sarcasm aside, I am of the belief that no veterans will be cut and that everyone deserve to return in Smash 4. Lucario gets a 5 in want because of that and for being one of my favorite 4th gen Pokemon. I would be highly disappointed to see him be cut.

Barring the possibility of time constraints, there's no way Lucario is getting cut. There are quite a few arguments for Lucario being cut but it's important to tackle the biggest one against Lucario; the rules of recentness.

The rules of recentness does not exist. It is a fan-made rule made up to make likely characters look much worse than they really do. No only does Lucario technically follow this "rule of recentness", but even if he didn't, he would still be able to get in under his massive popularity that has been long-endearing and his importance to the Pokemon series, which exceed that of any 3rd/5th gen Pokemon. Not to mention the rules of recentness is heavily flawed because it doesn't take into account the inclusion of retro characters and Marth in Melee; who were definitely not making recent appearance but got in due to importance (and popularity in Marth and Pit's case).

He gets a 4.2 in likelihood.

Nominate Mach Rider, Geno, Deoxys, Slime, and Pichu.

@samusrules93: I agree about Lucario being likely, but please put in some explanation for your likelihood vote.
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

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I give Lucario's likelihood a 3. At this point, there is some concern that Lucario might be ditched for a new Pokemon rep. However, it's far from being obsolete, since it has been involved in the latest Pokemon titles.

Nominations
1: Leon Powalski (x5)
 

Jhonnykiller45

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Lucario:
Want- 3
Likelihood- 4.5

While I do prefer Mewtwo over him (who dosen't ?), I highly doubt he'll be cut, given his popularity.

Prediction for Captain Ganon Gannondorf Dragmire- 4.95

Nominations
Dr. Mario x2
Snake
SANIC HEGEHOG Sonic
Ike
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
I'm surprised that no detractors have come up yet.

Then again, there's still more than ten hours left, so I'm curious to see their viewpoint (that doesn't refer to relevance).

I predict that Ganondorf get a 4.87 because someone is going to think "He might be cut due to irrelevance".
 

jigglover

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Well, M&SG did give Lucario a 3, I find it a bit harsh really! The detractors are probably just trolls, but anywho...
Want: 5
Likelihood: Why the hell are discussing this? Quite obviously a 0! *cough 5! *cough

I'll happily take over this game while you're on vacation, SSBF, look at this which I wrote a few days ago elsewhere on this forum and see how good I can be at literature.

A raging battle is fought, the golden hero takes on the 20-year-old child-hater, good and evil reach the climax of their war, until the embers of neutrality scorch the field between them. The few spectators stand aghast at the sight, the golden warrior gets told how to defeat the child-hater, but evil does also, and each, confident that they know how to finish the fight, go in with their flails flared.
The embers of neutrality didn't want his plan to back-fire as it was, so he just decided to simmer the battle-field until it is merely a pile of ash. But, in the midst of the clanging of armour, he deigned to see what direction the 20-year old was heading, a swift slash of his sword sent neutrality's head onto the ground, though, the thing that evil didn't consider, would be that the blazes would spread even after death, until either good or evil prevailed.
Another half-hour of swinging and slashing and clanging and clanking took forth, until the warrior, golden as the blitz around him, plunges his mace through his heart.

I'm sure Ember Reaper will enjoy it at least he did say this about it: Jigglover, you are a champion among men. That is an epic for the ages. :p
I will not be able to supervise it during my daytime, but it works well since my daytime is your night!

For the record though, in England, we spell some words differently to Americans, I will try to do it the american way, but if you notice colour instead of color, just know that it's the English way.

Oh, and SSBF, please PM me the way that you get a likelihood score, I do not know the formula.
 
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