Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

[N3ON]

Want: 5
No cuts!

Likelihood: 4.2
With Sakurai using Brawl's data and Lucario being a fairly popular and unique character, I don't see his exclusion being overly likely. In fact, I don't see Sakurai choosing to cut him at all, the only way he wouldn't be included is if development runs into time constraints and Lucario is chosen to be cut over some other characters (which I could see happening -- I don't think he has the highest priority). How much Game Freak stresses another (presumably newer) character plays a factor, but I believe Sakurai will try and make the effort to include Lucario, Mewtwo, and whatever the character they might be pushing may be (if the situation with GF is the same as it was for Brawl).

As for Zoroark "replacing" Lucario as Lucario "replaced" Mewtwo being used against Lucario? I could see why some casuals might think that, but anyone whose made an effort to learn about Smash should know that excuse carries no weight, Mewtwo was planned for Brawl along with Lucario and Lucario (and probably Mewtwo) will be planned along whatever new character we might get, and though there's a chance he won't make it, I'd say Lucario's chance of returning is fairly good.

Nomz:
x10 Marth

 

[Xhampi]

Want : 5
I don't like him personally but I want him to be in for the new pokemon players.

Likelihood : 4.8
Lucario have a unique moveset, a unique gimmick (the aura who give him more strengh whe he have more damage) , is the 4th gen mascot and have poppularaty that he still have to this day.
So bassicaly cut him would be as unfair than Mewtwo, and if I remember well when Mewtwo was cut people were pissed so why do these same people want Sakurai to do the same thing again by cuting Lucario.
And finaly if we cut him, new pokemon players will only have one pokemon (if we got a 5th gen pokemon) when old pokemon players will have 6 pokemons (if Mewtwo come back). Not really fair if you ask me so let these guys have at least two of their pokemons.

Prediction for Ganondorf : 5

Nomination
Mr Stevenson X 5

 

[Ghirahilda]

Want: 5
Behold the power of aura!

Likelihood: 4.95
I really hope to him to not be cut, but...well...some people want Zoroark over him...

Nominations: Olimar x5

Ganondorf prediction: 4.87

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

@jigglover: It's nothing personal. 3/5 is still an above average likelihood rating, but there's still that risk that Lucario may get the boot.

 

[Opossum]

Lucario time. Woo!

Okay. Want: 5

No man gets left behind, even if that man is an anubis.

Likelihood: 4.89

Unique and still popular today. What else is needed? He, Zoroark, and Mewtwo can all easily coexist.

Predicting a 4.99 for Ganondorf because, you know, there'll be that ONE guy...

Nominating Olimar x5 since he's my main and all in Brawl.


Also, SSBF, if you need more applicants, I will gladly run the game in your absence. I've always liked things like this, you know? Putting it out there...

 

[MelMoe]

Nominations

Marth x5

Voting & Discussing

Lucario

Personal Bias: 2.5
Likelihood: 5

The pokemon I really cared about are from gen 1 & 2. Lucario doesn't interest me nor does his playstyle. I wouldn't care of he was gone, but he shouldn't be.

Lucario getting cut will be almost as bad as Mewtwo's absence. Lucario has only been in one game & he has a unique moveset. It would he foolish to cut him so early. Mewtwo & Lucario were originally suppose to be in Brawl together. Lucario didn't replace anyone; not even Pichu. If Lucario is cut for the next generation, it will start a stupid tradition. We might get a worthwhile pokemon in the future, but if the tradition starts, it will be gone the next game.

If any pokemon should be cut, it should be Jigglypuff.

Prediction

Ganondorf: 4.67 (I'm rating Brawl Ganondorf & not LoZ Ganondorf)

 

[Deleted member]

@jigglover: Considering how many people doubt Lucario's inclusion, 3/5 hardly seems harsh.

 

[BKupa666]

Want: 5
Likelihood: 2.66

Okay, so it appears I'm the first detractor, or at least, the first person who doesn't find Lucario a lock for this game. I don't give the slightest crap about relevance, but if we're prioritizing Pokemon additions, I think Lucario will get placed below some new rep, regardless of overall importance. I doubt this group of speculators would look at pre-Brawl and think Mewtwo would be prioritized below Lucario either. Yes, Mewtwo was planned for Brawl, but unlike with Brawl, we're now at the breaking point in terms of roster size, possibly at the point where characters won't just be automatically readmitted, simply because they existed in a previous Smash game. I think it's unrealistic to leave a new Pokemon character off the roster, robbing it of a newcomer, simply because fans are unable to brace themselves for the painful, yet not unreasonable chance that cuts to be made. Why exactly will no cuts be made? It's almost as if there's some mental block people have to even considering this possibility, just because they (justifiably) oppose them.

I also believe it is foolishly optimistic to expect EIGHT Pokemon reps to become playable in any scenario. Sakurai has gone on record saying he does not want to saturate the roster with characters from Mario or Pokemon. He has stated that Brawl has 39 characters, thus revealing that he counts Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon as individual characters. How people think that eight characters is NOT saturating the roster with Pokemon when the next highest repped franchise would likely have no more than five or six characters is beyond me. Mewtwo, Lucario and a new rep could coexist, but they will almost certainly not. This eight character analysis is not even considering the chance we get an out-of-left-field new character (like PT was in Brawl) in addition.

Long story short, Lucario still has his chances, but I feel they are among the most blatantly blown out of proportion in existence. I will be happy to discuss this with his supporters if they wish to argue my points.

Predicting 4.98 for Ganondorf due to stupid Demise fans
Nominate King Hippo, Groose x2, King Boo x1

 

[Phaazoid]

@samusrules93: I agree about Lucario being likely, but please put in some explanation for your likelihood vote.

sowwy I guess you can't remember everyone's biases xD

I give him a 5 in likelihood simply because he's a brawl vet. I am very strong in my opinion that no one appearing in brawl will be cut. I think we have room for lucario, mewtwo, and zoroark personally, and if not, it's not lucario who's getting the bar.

 

[SmasherMaster]

Lucario

Want: 4.0
Likeliness: 3.5 Most likely 4th gen character

Gannondorf predictions: 3.5

Olimar
Marth
Princess Daisy
Scizor
K K Slider

 

[---]

I think Lucario will get placed below some new rep, regardless of overall importance. I doubt this group of speculators would look at pre-Brawl and think Mewtwo would be prioritized below Lucario either. Yes, Mewtwo was planned for Brawl, but unlike with Brawl, we're now at the breaking point in terms of roster size, possibly at the point where characters won't just be automatically readmitted, simply because they existed in a previous Smash game. I think it's unrealistic to leave a new Pokemon character off the roster, robbing it of a newcomer, simply because fans are unable to brace themselves for the painful, yet not unreasonable chance that cuts to be made. Why exactly will no cuts be made?

I also believe it is foolishly optimistic to expect EIGHT Pokemon reps to become playable in any scenario. Sakurai has gone on record saying he does not want to saturate the roster with characters from Mario or Pokemon. He has stated that Brawl has 39 characters, thus revealing that he counts Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon as individual characters. How people think that eight characters is NOT saturating the roster with Pokemon when the next highest repped franchise would likely have no more than five or six characters is beyond me. Mewtwo, Lucario and a new rep could coexist, but they will almost certainly not. This eight character analysis is not even considering the chance we get an out-of-left-field new character (like PT was in Brawl) in addition.

I guess you're in the boat for expecting a new guy. That's cool, and you did argue it the right way (no relevance BS), so props for that, calling some of us in denial about cuts is a little uncalled for though. I'm going to repost my thoughts from another thread to serve as a bit of an argument against a new rep (as you can't argue about time cuts or priority) as well as to have a reason for what I gave Lucario myself:

With Pokemon (like FE and Mother) there's next to no main recurring cast of characters which means there's a lot of good-but-not-mandatory choices. This is especially true with Pokemon as it has the largest cast of characters in Smash, hense it being the most flexable series of them all. As long as Pikachu and Red are there he could pull the rest of out a hat and it'd probably end up being good.

Remember that Ike got in by suggestion of IS, who Sakurai (a major and probably picky FE fan) came up to asking for a new guy, that would fit into Smash fairly easy, who he had made space for. It's a good bet that TPC was the same way with Lucario. So with Zoroark/any 5th Gen Pokemon it's a matter of whether or not Sakura feels like opening up a new guy spot this time, which I myself am betting against due to:

1. the strong reaction to losing characters in Brawl,
2. the overwhelming preference for the existing guys over any particular Gen 5 guy (this plus TPC's efforts to push the new stuff are both nothing new however),
3. the series getting it's own item to give cameos of it's large cast and to somewhat meet fan demand,
4. the massive size of the total roster leaving less room for those more whimsical (ex. G&W, ROB, Roy) additions,
5. also Sakurai outright saying there'd be less focus on the roster this time around.

As for oversaturation of characters, I think it was ment more as a way of keeping out some of the more random/minor characters out of Smash:

Big examples of this so far is the High Bar theory for both the Mario and Zelda series. We all agree both series easily warrant more characters than what they already have but for some reason a lot of us think they've got a good chance they won't due to both series lacking in truly good* and major (characters in their respective series) newcomers. Can't also forget why a lot of people think Krystal can get in despite the Star Fox series being "overstaturated" with characters. *Actually working in Smash

I think that by using that quote I made a minor hypocritical mistake somewhere, but whatever, I'll wait for someone to catch me on it and go from there.

 

[kisamefishfries]

want: 2 His ship has sailed imo. Lets move on to the next generation
likeliness: 3 Lets face it, theres a good chance he'll be cut for the likes of zororak or some 6th gen.

prediction: 4.96
anyone who thinks Gannon is being cut has a mental disorder...

nominations: Demise (alt gannon costume)x5

 

[shrooby]

Want: 5
I don't want to see any characters cut. Not even Sonic (and really don't like Sonic). I think that there's no point in removing unique characters just so that the roster can have more space for others. Why can't we just have newcomers on top of the what we already have?
After the backlash over Mewtwo being cut, I think that Sakurai may be a little more hesitant about cutting characters. That's not to say that Lucario is completely out of the clear. Not a "shoo-in" but more likely than not in my opinion. Likelihood: 3.8

Prediction: 4.87

because, you know, there'll be that ONE guy...

Nominations:
Olimar x3
Mach Rider x1
Tingle x1

 

[Deleted member]

I will add in flavor later after I get back from my trip.

Lucario gets a 4.27 in likelihood and a 4.34 in want. Robotic Winds earns five extra nominations.

Day Forty-Two has began! Today, Ganondorf's is up for ratings while Waluigi's score is being predicted. Starfy has been added to the eligible list.

Also, Opossum will take over until I can have full access again.

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Day Forty-Two has began! Today, Ganondorf's score is being predicted while Waluigi's score is being predicted.

We're doing two predictions today? Sweet!

 

[Deleted member]

We're doing two predictions today? Sweet!

Meant to say Ganondorf was up for voting.

BTW, we are not rating if Ganondorf becomes unique. We're rating if Ganondorf return at all.

Ganondorf gets a 5 in want, No Ganondorf, no buy. Common sense would also indicate that he gets a 5 in likelihood.

 

[Deleted member]

Ganondorf:

Want: 5
No cuts.

Likelihood: 5
Now, if it was a question on whether or not he'd no longer be a semi-clone...that's anyone's guess.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Ganondorf's likelihood is a 4.5 from me. Being a major villain in several Zelda titles, it stands to reason that Ganondorf will be sticking around.

Nominations
1: Bandanna Waddle Dee (x5)

 

[N3ON]

Want: 5
Preferably with a new moveset, but either way he is a must.

Likelihood: 5
He's not going anywhere. He's one of the three most important characters in his series, much moreso than any potential Zelda newcomer. Plus this isn't the first time he hasn't appeared in the Zelda game previous to Smash, yet he has still been included twice.

Nomz:
x5 Marth

 

[Jhonnykiller45]

Captain Ganon Gannondorf:
Want- 5
Likelihood- 5

Ganondorf isn't going to be cut, since, he's one of the most important characters in the series alongside Link and Zelda, so cutting him would be kinda like removing Bowser or something.
Plus, he is my second favorite character in Smash behind Captain Falcon, obviously, so I don't want him to be cut.

Prediction for the WAA- 2.5 (can't wait to see how much people will underestimate his chances)

Nominations
Ike
Mach Rider
Dr. Mario
Snake
Sonic

 

[SmashShadow]

Want:5 even with his stupid Captain F. moveset
Liklihood: 5 duh
No chance whatsoever he'll be removed. He is the completion of the Tri-Force and THE VILLIAN from Zelda.

Waluigi: 2.49

5x Masked man

 

[---]

Want: 5
Likeliness: 5

Also Falcondorf rules, Sword-dorf drools.

x5 Marth

 

[Ghirahilda]

Ganondorf
Want: 5
The main villain of the Zelda series

Likelihood: 5
Triforce = Link + Zelda + Ganondorf

Nominations: Olimar Olimar Olimar Olimar Olimar
Waluigi prediction: 1.27

 

[Deleted member]

Want: 5
Likeliness: 5

Also Falcondorf rules, Sword-dorf drools.

x5 Marth

What about Magidorf with some Falcondorf and Swordorf?

 

[Ember Reaper]

Want - 5
Likelihood - 5

Triforce of Power, dropping is a huge chunk of the series gone.

mmm I'll throw 5 Vaati's way

nominate Vaati X5

 

[Onyx Oblivian]

Want: 5
Zelda is ONLY my favorite franchise from my childhood. Haha

Likeliness: 5

No cuts. ESPECIALLY 1/3rd of three most important people in the series.

If they even THINK about replacing him with Demise, I will buy a plane ticket to Japan and barge into the doors of Sora Ltd. and give everyone a dirty look until they get that filthy thought out of their mind :|

Prediction Waluigi: 2.8

Nominations: Balloon Fighter x5

 

[BKupa666]

We already have a 4.5 rating???

*does not want to live on this planet anymore*

Want and Likelihood are 5, and the most obvious 5's thus far. Ganondorf will never, ever be cut.

Predicting 2.13 for Waluigi
Nominate Groose x3, King Hippo x2

Also, in brief response to ---'s Lucario post, my comment on cut denial was less so directed at this thread's posters, and more the fans who assume cuts won't happen, and when questioned why, answer "...because!" Sakurai is no fool, and could have easily foreseen the backlash against cuts coming, hence him warning fans that "some characters would disappear" way before release. Though I don't think he'll whip out the scissors and start cutting away at Brawl's roster recklessly, predictable fan backlash that really won't affect profits anyways won't deter him from a select few cuts if he deems it to be for the greater good. Anyways, it's not certain that Lucario or a new character will get in, especially if Mewtwo returns and/or gets revamped (I do think he, at least, is a lock), but when a guy like Zoroark looks so blatantly designed for Smash, I see TPC pushing Sakurai to include him (and I believe they have quite a bit of control over their characters). I also see Sakurai obliging.

 

[Deleted member]

Predict Waluigi to get a 2.19. He'll be overestimated by the supporters.

Nominate Mach Rider, Geno, Deoxys, Slime, and Pichu.

 

[Deleted member]

Likewise, he'll be underestimated by the detractors and haters.

 

[Inawordyes]

Want: 5 - I don't play LoZ, and I like C. Falcon better in Smash, so I don't necessarily have an attachment to G-Dawg (heh), but you can't have a Smash game without him (64 aside), and I would shocked if he wasn't in.
Likelihood: 5 - Anybody who thinks Ganondorf will be cut is a troll, nothing more.

Nominations: Balloon Fighter x3, Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2

 

[deuxhero]

Likely: 5: As I have said, bar time constraints that are impossible to predict, Pichu was the only vetern cut.
Want: 2.5

Nominate: Alexandra Roivas x5

 

[Xhampi]

For Ganondorf :
Want : 5

Likeliness : 5
I don't think i even need an explanation for why this guy will be in the next smash bros.

Prediction for Waluigi : 2

Nomination
Mr Stevenson X 5

Also who get the five additional nomination points ?

 

[jigglover]

Hmm... hard one.
Want: 5
Likelihood: 10 out of 5.

Prediction: 2.13, I think that there'll be a couple of 1 and a couple of 3 and then some inbetween.

 

[SmasherMaster]

Want: 4.9 Not really a character that I care about. But if he goes then any character might get the cut.
Likely: 11!

Prediction: 2.5

Nominations
Bandana Dee x3
Princess Daisy
Scizor

 

[lobotheduck21]

want 2.5: don't care about zelda

likely hood 5: if ganondorf gets cut, sakurai will never be allowed to make a video game again in my book

nominations: mr. stevenson x 5

prediction: 2

 

[DakotaBonez]

WANT and LIKELIHOOD: 5

His close combat fighting style is a personal favorite, and he's the main antagonist of the zelda series so its not likely he'll be replaced anytime soon.

 

[Opossum]

Ganondorf

Want: 5
Likelihood:5

Ganondorf's one third of the Triforce. He's staying.

Predicting a 2.16 for Waluigi

Nominating Marth x5


Also, after this post, I shall start the new day as of SSBF's requests. It's an hour or so earlier than usual, but time zones suck.

 

[Deleted member]

Anyways, since we are starting the new day...

Waluigi:
Want: 5
Sorry haters, Waluigi is one of my most wanted characters.

Likelihood: 2.75
Like I said for other Mario characters, we don't even know if Mario is GETTING a newcomer or not. And it would be either Toad, Jr., or Waluigi if any.
I feel that Waluigi has a slight 1-Up over the other two, simply because he's shown to be a popular request in Japan, was an Assist Trophy in Brawl, and Sakurai has mentioned him in a good light in Luigi's Melee trophy, his own Brawl trophy, and on his Dojo update, even mentioning the concept of him being a playable character.

 

[Opossum]

Dawn of a New Day

Silence fell over the stadium as the King of Evil showed his abilities. Being the evil holder of the Triforce of Power, he impressed many, who, even though they feared him, eagerly wanted him to return to the frey. This showed by his extremely impressive want score of a 4.73. His likelihood score was even better, surprising even the warlock himself, with a 4.98. He handed samusrules93 five extra nominations for his valiant guessing skills. Ganondorf fiercely looked to the sky as an odd sound began to resound over the cheers of the crowd...

WWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Skydiving into the stadium as banjo music played was Waluigi, who boasted the infamous title of "Most Controversial Newcomer" for quite a long time. Today, however, he didn't care. He wanted to get a good score, even if it meant cheating. (Knowing this, however, the ballot box was on a strict lockdown so that Waluigi couldn't access it. Don't tell Waluigi...) The observers would decide his fate...

Astro then got a call to save the world, and left the stadium for some time. Not wanting to leave the place in ruins, especially on a day with a controversial newcomer, a lone figure stood in the wake. Just a guy with an opossum on his shoulder.

"I'm here to fill in for Astro," said the guy with the opossum on his shoulder. "You're all in good hands."

Someone threw a peanut at him.









Day 43 Begins now. You will vote on Waluigi's want and likelihood, and predict the likelihood score of Marth for tomorrow. Day will update in 24 or so hours.


Note: as I am not the thread creator, I cannot update the front post or title.

Here is the accurate Nomination List:

[COLLAPSE="Nomination List"]
x91 Mr. Stevenson
x89 Geno
x81 Marth
x84 Olimar
x73 Mach Rider
x59 Lip
x56 Shy Guy
x51 M. Bison
x50 Kalas
x44 Dr. Mario
x40 Masked Man
x40 Demise (alt. costume for Ganondorf)
x38 Groose
x35 Lucina
x33 Mike Jones
x30 Sonic
x30 Snake
x29 King Hippo
x29 Medusa
x29 Leon Powalski
x28 Funky Kong
x27 Bandanna Dee
x22 Andy
x21 Tingle
x17 Black Mage
x17 Vaati
x17 Balloon Fighter
x16 Duck Hunt Dog
x16 Meowth
x14 Captain A
x13 Kamek
x13 Prince Sable
x10 Adam Malkovich
x10 Shadow the Hedgehog
x10 Baby Mario & Luigi
x9 Daisy
x9 Sheriff
x8 Impa
x8 Travis Touchdown
x8 King Boo
x8 Scizor
x8 Nightmare (Soul Calibur)
x7 Hades
x7 Ike
x6 Diskun
x6 Alexandra Roivas
x5 Animal Crosser
x5 Dr. Mario (alt costume)
x5 Pokemon Trainer
x5 Deoxys
x4 Caeda
x4 Jigglypuff
x3 Toon Zelda
x3 Dry Bowser (alternate costume)
x3 K. K. Slider
x3 Pichu
x2 Slime
x2 Majora's Mask Link
x2 Dillon
x2 Genesect
x2 Zero Suit Samus
x2 Meta-Knight
x2 KOS-MOS
x2 Leaf (Fire Emblem)
x1 Birdo
x1 Zero (Mega Man)
x1 Young Link
x1 Ninten
x1 Micaiah
x1 Ivy (Soul Caliber)
x1 Morrigan (Darkstalker)
x1 Chaos (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x1 Black Knight
x1 Shake King
x1 Terra Bradford
x1 Prince Fluff
x1 Tails
x1 Shadow
x1 Victini
x1 Hoenn Pokemon Trainer
x1 Magnus
x1 Ayumi Tachibana
[/COLLAPSE]

 

[Deleted member]

As a further note, I doubt Sakurai legitimately cares about whether Waluigi is from a "mainstream" Mario title or not, so I don't think that should be a reason on why he's unlikely.