Rate And Discuss Their Chances: Closed

[N3ON]

Other than Clefairy... Clefairy is the one character that could replace her, but a clefairy using rest would just not be the same...
I don't like Mario! Likelihood: 0!

At this point replacing Jigglypuff with Clefairy would cause nothing but backlash.

For christ's sake! it's 10 past 11 here, and the day is always over by now! Has SSBF been kidnapped or something?

SSBF doesn't run on UK time.
...actually I don't think he runs on any time anymore.

Whatever, it's not like we're running out of time to rate chances before characters start getting revealed. Plus we've done most of the likely newcomers at this point anyway. All we have left are characters with terrible chances and getting outraged when a veteran doesn't get a 5.

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Whatever, it's not like we're running out of time to rate chances before characters start getting revealed. Plus we've done most of the likely newcomers at this point anyway. All we have left are characters with terrible chances and getting outraged when a veteran doesn't get a 5.

There's one or two characters who either have decent chances or will be incredibly divisive. That's when the fun will start.

 

[jigglover]

At this point replacing Jigglypuff with Clefairy would cause nothing but backlash.



SSBF doesn't run on UK time.
...actually I don't think he runs on any time anymore.

Whatever, it's not like we're running out of time to rate chances before characters start getting revealed. Plus we've done most of the likely newcomers at this point anyway. All we have left are characters with terrible chances and getting outraged when a veteran doesn't get a 5.

Lol. I was just saying that it is always done by 11 in UK time, and it's not right now... I agree it would cause nothing but backlash, but Nintendo knew that cutting Roy would take some backlash too. (I know Roy was taken out for time constraints, but which Roy? My money is actually on Roy campbell from metal gear solid, and I'll tell you why if you request it.)


Besides, I'm still looking forward to characters like baby bros and Kamek, who actually have a rather large fan-base!

 

[N3ON]

There's one or two characters who either have decent chances or will be incredibly divisive. That's when the fun will start.

True (excluding veterans) there are still a few characters worth having a day over, but for the most part I think we've exhausted the likely candidates. Not that this should stop or anything, I just think now (for the most part) it's just going to keep getting more and more unlikely.

Lol. I was just saying that it is always done by 11 in UK time, and it's not right now... I agree it would cause nothing but backlash, but Nintendo knew that cutting Roy would take some backlash too. (I know Roy was taken out for time constraints, but which Roy? My money is actually on Roy campbell from metal gear solid, and I'll tell you why if you request it.)

Jigglypuff would cause more backlash than Roy, but the intention to keep Roy was there for Brawl, so like Mewtwo, he wasn't "replaced", he just didn't make the final cut.

And there's no way Forbidden 7 Roy was Roy Campbell, but I'm too baffled that someone would think this I can't even begin to articulate an argument.

 

[Opossum]

Wait wait wait...you think that the Roy planned for Brawl was not the Fire Emblem character with nice popularity and was already in Melee, but instead a 3rd Party supporting character from an already represented 3rd party series? Even when Sakurai said he'd limit 3rd Parties?

Well...

 

[jigglover]

We all know that Konami guy wanted Snake in melee right? (If not then he did.) Sakurai would've put him in if the game wasn't so far in production. Well for brawl, Snake is probably one of the first newcomers Sakurai did because he probably promised Konami guy during the days of Melee. What if Konami guy, since he's personal friends of Sakurai's, wanted to take it further and say, add roy campbell too if you have time. Since Sakurai was good friends of Konami guy's he said Ok, but he put him as a last priority, and he ran out of time.
Or maybe this is just because I bought the new metal gear solid for 3DS today and am in the MGS mood...

 

[Opossum]

So...baseless speculation over something that actually has evidence? In other words, what would make that scenario more likely than Roy from Fire Emblem?

 

[jigglover]

I can't think right now! It's a few minutes until mid-night here and I'm shattered! I don't have any evidence, I just think that it is fairly likely it did. Smash bros wiki seems to agree.

Roy's identity has also been debated; while frequently speculated to be the Fire Emblem character, others claim that the character could represent another character named Roy, such as Roy Campbell

 

[Opossum]

I can't think right now! It's a few minutes until mid-night here and I'm shattered! I don't have any evidence, I just think that it is fairly likely it did. Smash bros wiki seems to agree.

Roy's identity has also been debated; while frequently speculated to be the Fire Emblem character, others claim that the character could represent another character named Roy, such as Roy Campbell

You mean the Wiki that anyone and their dog can edit?

 

[jigglover]

You mean the Wiki that anyone and their dog can edit?

That's the one!

 

[Deleted member]

How in the Hell would Roy Campbell even be LOGICAL when MGS has characters like Raiden, Gray Fox, Liquid Snake (who is very different from Solid, including appearance), etc.

The Colonel doesn't even FIGHT.

 

[BKupa666]

What the hell are you talking about? Wikipedia obviously refers to Roy Koopa, who was going to be in Melee but was replaced by that one ginger guy for some reason.

 

[shrooby]

I heard that Roy Koopa had actually replaced Morton originally. I guess they figured that Roy was a little more important. But then they never got done with Roy for some reason.

 

[Deleted member]

Seems really wierd they'd go with Roy. After all isn't Ludwig the main one?

Then again, probably because of his similarity to Ludwig von Beethoven, they may have had legal issue.


(We really need to start the next day, seeing as we're just trolling around now...)

 

[Deleted member]

FFFFFUUUUUU---

So hard to remember this game, especially with all the college homework I have to do.

Looks like I need to literally drag my feet to keep this game alive.

 

[Spydr Enzo]

If it's really such a burden, you should ask around, see if anyone wants to take your place and manage the thread. I'm sure there are a few people who are willing, familiar with the game's rules, and have enough time on their hands to manage it well in your place.

They could make a post and keep editing it with each new day, just as you do in the OP. But in the OP, you could link to the NEW main post so that people don't get confused and don't have to go searching through pages to find it. The new manager could even copy and paste the rules form the OP into their post.

Just a suggestion. That's how I would do it.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Ok, I'm taking charge of this thread.

We are now doing:

Geno

Any score lower than 5 doesn't count.

 

[Deleted member]

If it's really such a burden, you should ask around, see if anyone wants to take your place and manage the thread. I'm sure there are a few people who are willing, familiar with the game's rules, and have enough time on their hands to manage it well in your place.

They could make a post and keep editing it with each new day, just as you do in the OP. But in the OP, you could link to the NEW main post so that people don't get confused and don't have to go searching through pages to find it. The new manager could even copy and paste the rules form the OP into their post.

Just a suggestion. That's how I would do it.

I understand what you're saying, but I really need to take control of this thread and try to manage it around my schedule. One way I've planned on doing that is making this one of my home pages.

 

[jigglover]

If you do end up wanting to give management someone, then, like before, I'd be happy to. I'm not getting much homework right now anyway, the only essay I've got right now I did yesterday!
But.. yeah, just change the day right now and do the flavour later, I was up at mid-night expecting the change yesterday and I've just woke up and it's still not changed..


Today is for.... Yoshi! Now, Yoshi is a very controversial character in the smash series and many debating how important he actually is. To find out more we need to look into the binary of smash too...

 

[Deleted member]

Currently working on new day. Be patience...

 

[Deleted member]

Editing this for flavor later.

Jigglypuff gets a 4.84 in likelihood and a 4.59 in want. BKupa666 wins five extra nominations.

Day Fifty-Four has began! Sukapon has been added to the list of eligible re-nominations. Today, you will be voting for Balloon Fighter and predict what Sonic gets tomorrow.

I'll start with a 0 for likelihood and a 0 for want. Being rejected by Sakurai with no signs of Sakurai changing his mind, I see no reason why he would be in.

 

[jigglover]

0 in likelihood is a bit much I think!
I give him a 5 in want, my most wanted retro, but only a 3.88 in likelihood, however much it may pain me.
Nominations are the usual, 5 for baby bros., and I predict 4.36 for Sonic.

Wooh! First post of the day!

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Balloon Fighter:
Want: 4.5
My second most wanted retro character. He's from a really neat game, and he has some intersting moveset potential.
Likelihood: 2.5
He was apparently one of the characters Sakurai considered for Melee, and while he didn't pick him, there's no reason why Sakurai might not change his mind and give him a second chance.
Prdiction for Sonic: 4.13

Nominations:
Bandana Dee x5

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

You take picking one character over another as Sakurai completely rejecting the character.

Well, Sakurai picked every character over another character.

That's like saying every AT is never going to be a character because other characters were chosen over them. Every AT should get a 0 likelihood.

Just because 1 character was chosen over another doesn't mean anything to further games. If anything it's a GOOD thing Sakurai thought about that character. It means he's shown interest in it. Since he doesn't have to make the decision in future games of that character against other character that character might have a chance to actually get in now.

Edit: Every character NOT in smash now, except the new ones, were also chosen not worthy over the characters that got in. They must not be worthy of smash at all. 0 Liklihood for everyone that's not new

 

[Opossum]

Want: 0

Likelihood: 0

Dismissed by Sakurai. We have absolutely no reason to believe he changed his mind. And no, the "But Sakurai said Olimar is useless without Pikmin" argument isn't very good. Olimar is not useless without them, only hindered. He can still do a few attacks.

Predicting a 4.87 for Sonic

Nominating Meta Knight x5


@ Psycho. BF wasn't only not chosen over the Ice Climbers, he was outright dismissed. There's a difference.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Want: 0

Likelihood: 0

Dismissed by Sakurai. We have absolutely no reason to believe he changed his mind. And no, the "But Sakurai said Olimar is useless without Pikmin" argument isn't very good. Olimar is not useless without them, only hindered. He can still do a few attacks.

Predicting a 4.87 for Sonic

Nominating Meta Knight x5


@ Psycho. BF wasn't only not chosen over the Ice Climbers, he was outright dismissed. There's a difference.

Is there a link for this?

 

[Opossum]

I believe it was in the old thread. I'll look.

EDIT: Found it in the BR info thread.

It has a source near the info. About half way down or so.

 

[---]

@Opossum: Backroom Info thread? That's a bit outdated now, next time use the Directory thread.

Want: 3.5
Likeliness: 1

x5 Snake

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I believe it was in the old thread. I'll look.

EDIT: Found it in the BR info thread.

It has a source near the info. About half way down or so.

In that case I AM using the Pikmin arguement.

Also, that sounds like a half-witted remark. Not a complete rejection.

And while were on this, shouldn't Ridley get a 0 despite fan support since Sakurai didn't think Ridley could work?

 

[jigglover]

That does sound like a silly remark.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

That does sound like a silly remark.

It sounds like a stupid remark.

Half-witted doesn't mean it's funny

 

[Deleted member]

In that case I AM using the Pikmin arguement.

Also, that sounds like a half-witted remark. Not a complete rejection.

And while were on this, shouldn't Ridley get a 0 despite fan support since Sakurai didn't think Ridley could work?

That's a bad comparison because Sakurai at least stated that Ridley might work if they were to put more effort towards his inclusion. With Balloon Fighter, Sakurai goes into some detail as to why he rejected Balloon Fighter.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

That's a bad comparison because Sakurai at least stated that Ridley might work if they were to put more effort towards his inclusion. With Balloon Fighter, Sakurai goes into some detail as to why he rejected Balloon Fighter.

1 sentence is not going into detail. And I take that more as to why he picked Ice climbers over completely rejecting balloon fighter

 

[jigglover]

I find it interesting that Sakurai dismissed balloon fighter almost straight away, saying that he can't work without balloons, while in actual fact make the tag-team ice climbers would be a lot harder to program or make up a move-set for.

 

[Onyx Oblivian]

That's a bad comparison because Sakurai at least stated that Ridley might work if they were to put more effort towards his inclusion. With Balloon Fighter, Sakurai goes into some detail as to why he rejected Balloon Fighter.

What detail? There was no set details. It was simply "wouldnt work without his balloons".

There is absolutely no reason that Sakurai cannot revisit this character. He obviously didn't even consider Ridley playable yet people are asking/expecting for him to revisit the idea.

And yes the Olimar argument is very vaild. It applies to him too. "___ is useless without ___". But he worked, because sakurai tried. I don't even think he tried to start working on BF I feel he chose Ice Climbers over him and worked from there.

Want: 5

Likelihood: 3.5

As far as likelihood, the fact that he was brushed off before lessens is chances. But his franchise has been referenced in every smash game to date. He is a strong contender. However so is Takamaru. I have a feeling we could get both, if he went for two retros.

 

[Ember Reaper]

Want: 4.5
Likelihood: 3

He's that retro guy I want the most I'd say.
I gave 3 for likelihood because of Nintendoland and being retro. Other than that it's middle of the road.

 

[SmashShadow]

Want: 5 Wanted him in since Melee.
Likelihood: 2.85

Is a great retro choice and is getting a new game on the Wii U. Also Balloon fighters body shape is similar to Olimar. To say that without Pikmin and Balloons that they couldn't do the same moves is foolish.

Sonic: 4.5

5x Vaati

 

[Spydr Enzo]

Balloon fighter (Want) ~ 5
Balloon Fighter (Likelihood) ~ 3



Honestly, it seems to me like many people far underestimate Balloon fighter's chances, dismissing him mainly because of a simple and stupid remark that Sakurai made over a decade ago. That's pretty silly, in my opinion. Don't forget that Sakurai also dismissed Ridley... and yet look at his massive support. People may say "Well, at least Sakurai acknowledged that Ridley could work if they really wanted him to", but how exactly do you know they want him too? People use that argument against Balloon Fighter all the time. "How do you know Sakurai changed his mind?" I could ask you the same question about Ridley. Furthermore, the "reasons" for Sakurai dismissing Balloon Fighter seemed more like a reason to pick Ice Climbers over them, not a reason to completely dismiss the character, making sure he will never EVER be playable EVER.

That's a bad comparison because Sakurai at least stated that Ridley might work if they were to put more effort towards his inclusion. With Balloon Fighter, Sakurai goes into some detail as to why he rejected Balloon Fighter.

Take this post for example. Sakurai went into just as much detail when dismissing Ridley (if not more) than he did when dismissing Balloon Fighter (honestly, I don't even see much detail at all), and furthermore, the comment about Ridley was a more serious dismissal rather than a silly, half-witted remark, as in Balloon fighter's case. So how do you know Sakurai will change his mind about Ridley? He hasn't the past two games, what makes you think he will do it now? If you believe he will change his mind, then why in the world is the idea so crazy in Balloon Fighter's case?

Nothing against Ridley... I'm expecting him. I just hate when Ridley supporters bash the Balloon fighter because of a dumb comment that Sakurai made. Pretty hypocritical if you ask me.

The remark is rather silly anyway, and I doubt Sakurai sees it as much of a problem. In fact, most of those "reasons" seem to me like Sakurai was just joking around. That sort of remark doesn't render the character's chances hopeless anyway. If he made a remark towards Balloon Fighter that he did toward Sukapon ("Don't expect to see Sukapon playable in the future"), then I ould be skeptical. A comment like THAT is outright dismissing the character. The whole balloon comment is not.

I think Balloon Fighter has more going for him than any other retro character. He's pretty dang popular by retro character standards, he was at least considered by Sakurai at one point, and Sakurai has acknowledged his popularity before, mentioning that he tied with the Ice Climbers in the Melee poll.

Give the Balloon fighter the credit he deserves, and stop using that silly "But Sakurai already dismissed him" argument.

That's a bad comparison because Sakurai at least stated that Ridley might work if they were to put more effort towards his inclusion. With Balloon Fighter, Sakurai goes into some detail as to why he rejected Balloon Fighter.

 

[BKupa666]

Rating Balloon Fight? How can a game possibly be considered for a playable slot???

Want: 2
Likelihood: 2

There are more likely retro characters that Sakurai could make with less effort. Balloon Fighter would be infinitely more awesome, though that counts for squat, of course. What makes me consider him somewhat likely is the focus he is receiving in NintendoGodAwfulLand, in addition to his prominence among retro characters as a group.

Predicting 4.46 for Sonic
Nominate Groose, Hades x2, King Boo x1

 

[Deleted member]

Let's see...

Balloon Fight:

Want: 0
It's a game. Why would a game be playable?

Likelihood: 0
Again, why would a game be playable?



But seriously.

Balloon Fighter:

Want: 2.5
As much as I feel he'd be interesting, Mach Rider and Takamaru are who I'd like to see more. Not to say I don't want to see Balloon Fighter. In fact, my ideal 3 Retros for Smash 4 are Takamaru, Mach Rider, and Balloon Fighter. Honorable mention goes to Muddy Mole, who is my 4th ideal Retro.

Likelihood: 2.5
On one hand, Balloon Fight has recieved A LOT of attention over the years, including a remake of the game featured in WarioWare Smooth Moves, a Tingle version of the game (Tingle's Balloon Fight), and now an attraction at Nintendo Land.
On the other hand, Sakurai had denied him before for being "useless without his balloons".
As a counter, there is Olimar, who is useless without his Pikmin.

So really, it can go either way. 50/50.