#HBC | ѕoup
The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2010
- Messages
- 6,865
No idea on July. Lean town on OS.Do you have a read on July and OS?
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No idea on July. Lean town on OS.Do you have a read on July and OS?
That depends, are you going to just ask for a vote or are you going to present a case?Then can I count on your vote on July?
I can agree with the first part and I'll go back and show you the posts that put him there in the first place in a second here. As for the second part, yes but not to the point where I'm confident in him being my lynch choice today.Just because you put him on a reads list as scum doesn't mean you've explained why you think he's scum. I think we've all gone over how we want more than him but I'm directly asking you why he's playing scummy and not just careless. And, I'm asking you, do you still think Zen is scum?
Just quoting this again so people know where this is coming from.Just because you put him on a reads list as scum doesn't mean you've explained why you think he's scum. I think we've all gone over how we want more than him but I'm directly asking you why he's playing scummy and not just careless. And, I'm asking you, do you still think Zen is scum?
I'm all for the OS' number games don't get me wrong but at the same time this post seems weird to me. It seems like he's almost relieved that we would be looking for SK rather then mafia, the way he's posting seems to be trying to forcibly say to Zen that you either go for SK or you're anti-town. In fact he further substantiates on that with the extremely weird reasoning of.. if BSL flips mafia.. Zen is Serial Killer.. I just don't see the connection there.I mean yea, but no... Just no... It might be cuz I haven't read ALL of what he said, but for what I have read it really makes more sense to look for the SK at this point rather than the scum team, and if OS feels he has a way of doing that than there's no chance that that's a scum play. In fact, the mere fact that you're so abrasive about him just being wrong is striking a nerve. Not a big one, but one of those tiny insignificant ones, ya feel me?
Zen goes toMorrow if BSL flips mafia.
These two posts are what I was talking about before, also he does later say he feels Soup is town for his scum read on BSL. Now unless I'm missing something between that post and this one it basically seems like a complete and total contradiction and one that stuck out at me originally but was overshadowed by my original hatred of the Zen slot.Before I go to bed:
SK: Zen if BSL is mafia.
Mafia: BSL, Soup.
Gg?
He brings it up here again actually.. Soup-BSL connection. He says his reads are spot on which is some weird confidence and yet if he's saying his reads are so solid then why is it just based off of Zen's dealing with mechanics and from what I see Non-existent PoEA combination of PoE and last page really. I'm more solid on the BSL-Soup connection than you being scum, and since July's not even a thing I'm still gonna look into my read on you, but so far that looks pretty damn spot on.
Haven't read entirely but saw this and wanted to note that I agree. I don't see how any one person flipping mafia would result in any one person being automatically the serial killer as they shouldn't know who each other are.KevinM said:if BSL flips mafia.. Zen is Serial Killer.. I just don't see the connection there.
OS, as a power player, I would imagine should have much more mafia playing done at this point. He's spent so much time deliberating on and debating mechanics that his actual scumhunting took a backseat to it. Once he saw that some of the town wouldn't follow the Kingmaker mod, he should've dropped it and moved on.Can you explain your OS read please?
OS didn't do very much mechanics talk in LoL uPick, did he? I don't remember seeing it.OS did drop the kingmaker thing. Even if he didn't there's nothing scummy about that. OS talks about mechanics regardless of alignment. There's nothing particularly scummy about just that. It's the way that he presents it that matters.
Kevin actually isn't playing similar to HxH at all. Nor does he maintain the same meta from game to game. You said he wasn't doing much in HxH, but that's the most I've EVER seen Kevin do. He made cases and actively participated in discussion all game. That is not the same as here o_o/
Soup aint putting any work into scumhunting.
So what I'm saying is that your reasoning doesn't line up :/
This is utter garbage. There has been nothing cautious about my play. I have openly voted whoever I have wanted despite how it may look. Such as me switching my vote on you. Such as following Kuz onto Gorf and then back onto you. Etc. Furthermore I have been pretty much looking at every single player all game and have kept my reads updated. And pushing who I feel needs to be. Disagreeing with what I feel needs to be disagreed with.Ah but Kuz, you are missing the point. I've also been considering that Zen might not be town. There is something cautious about his play and almost standoffish that I don't like, like he's thrown out some questions and accusations but I don't feel him really pushing them anywhere. His comments stood out to me exactly because he did float it out there without much backing, and then when I responded he also responded but didn't seem to go anywhere with it. Granted, I'm V/LA but I expected to come back to a little something from Zen about our interaction.
This is the most un mafia-like post ever. Especially OS-mafia-like. OS scum loves self-destructive town. OS taking the time out to make this post as mafia just doesn't fit. As mafia, OS would probably just be looking for a lynch to happen today so long as it's not him or his buddy. This does not look like that at all. This is OS looking to get a GOOD lynch today. Not just any lynch as mafia would. He actually wants BSL to stop saying something that murks up people's ability to read him properly. Ya know?BSL, if you are town... please stop posting "when I'm lynched". It's looking more likely the more you post, but still.
OS are mafia looking to lynch indy at the moment, or is it in their interest to keep him alive/lynch town and blend in?
Actually I just remembered you said its Town/mafia vs indy atm. But why? Shouldn't mafia want to keep indy since they are bulletproof/can win if they trick their partner into being shot?
This is why OS suddenly jumped to my town list in my reads list I posted after this. Do you agree with what I see here Kuz? Just not looking like Mafia OS play. Looks more like Celebrity OS.Mafia as a whole wants to kill the indy on Day 2, statistically speaking. It is the "middle ground" of being risk averse.
There is logic in them wanting the indy right away or wanting the indy to stay until the very end (believing they can manipulate town forever and cooperating eternally, respectfully) but the prisoner dilemma means that the likelihood that the SK will be lynched is correlated directly to the likelihood that mafia will be targeted, meaning that choosing "compete" becomes a stronger choice as the player choice lessens... if you can predict which one will be hit. As far as avoiding risk, the likelihood that the SK being lynched goes up when the benefit from competing goes down in a no knowledge scenario. This shouldn't occur because...
There are other variables of course, such as pressure in the day phase! If BSL is mafia, for example, it is incredibly likely given toDay's efforts that if he isn't lynched today he'll be lynched before endgame and not night killed. This means that his partner's choice of cooperate or compete is completely irrelevant as the partner is the only one that can die via NKill. This gives BSL all the power at Night and none during the Day (another inverse rule, sometihng common in prisoner dilemma scenarios). Since BSL can't be NKilled his chances of winning increase if he competes, but since he has a high likelihood of being lynched the drawback from competing (both mafia dying) is no longer a drawback. This is assuming his partner cannot win on his own and have a team victory through lynches alone.
It makes his job easier. There are scenarios where he might prefer for mafia to be around (for one, there are three scum. This means that people will be looking at multiple targets. The SK doesn't have to outrun the lynch mob, he just has to outrun the mafia, na mean?), but all in all lynching mafia is in the SKs best interest.
After one mafia is lynched, the alignment is ultimately irrelevant. While the SK would want to kill the mafia before endgame, the odds of randomly hitting that one mafia are high through chance alone so even if the player was awful at hitting mafia odds are in his favor.
Do you feel that it is in the SK's best interest to lynch mafia?
Do you feel mafia want to lynch the SK early, or later?
Listen.Badwolf. Kevin and I have both posted reasoning on gorf. Do you agree or disagree with our reasoning? What specifically do you or don't you agree with and why?
I'd rather have Badwolf if you wanted an honest answer. I don't have Jack on July. I've been skimming some things so if someone laid out a case (I believe kuz) then I'll read it. Gorf is just assumption based on what Zen presented and how I look at it comparative to how I was before. I had Gorf as town for the sake that he was being chilled and relaxed about things, much like the reason Kuz did. I can't ignore what Zen said however and that contradiction is very credible.July, Kevin, Soup - Why vote Gorf, and would you vote July?
Better. Will you have more come a flip?OS, as a power player, I would imagine should have much more mafia playing done at this point. He's spent so much time deliberating on and debating mechanics that his actual scumhunting took a backseat to it. Once he saw that some of the town wouldn't follow the Kingmaker mod, he should've dropped it and moved on.
As far as the rest of my reads, I've explained my BW read.
KevMo is scummy for similar reasons to OS. He's got a big name in the SWF crowd, but I'm not seeing big play here. It's similar to his play from HxH, in a way. He wasn't doing much. He did enough, but that's it. Here he really isn't doing enough. Or wasn't rather. He's been stepping it up.
Zen is towny because I can see him putting an effort in. He's hard to read (see HxH), but it seems pretty genuine.
Soup, as I've said before, is putting a lot of work into scumhunting. He was focused on me, and I know he likes to take one read and hit it super hard, and that's what he was doing. I see it as a good thing, even though it was me he was on. Soup also didn't play like the scumSoup I've seen in HxH and LoL uPick.
Kuz has been putting in plenty of work, too much to fake. So I can't imagine him being mafia. Even if he's SK, an idea I know has been thrown around a little, then his reads are still valid. Since he and Gorf have been gone for so long, I think his relationship with Gorf, as well as the fact that his last mafia experience had Gorf in it (right?), puts his ability to read Gorf above everyone else's.
So I'm going to put Gorf as nulltown because of that.
Better, Soup?
Read back like not even twenty posts and you'll see my reasoning for Gorf, I would not want July over Gorf and I just am not seeing it. Kuz is strong on reading her but as I've said in the last few games she's been in I JUST CAN'T EVER READ HER SLOT.I'm not going to be able to take as large a role in this Day that I wanted, so I'm gonna look at Gorf / July because they have the most votes.
Kuz & Zen - Why vote July, and would you vote Gorf?
July, Kevin, Soup - Why vote Gorf, and would you vote July?
Between the 5 of you there is a lynch guaranteed. I'll join onto one of those lynches if you guys have good enough reasoning.
Personally though, I'd prefer we lynch Kuz. I do not have a case worth writing and have been a bit busy in my other game. I'll be able to step it up here on D2, but with 48 hours left I'm not going to divert from the likely lynches.
Also Dark Horse you put Kevin on Gorf and Ramen King.
I've already explained why she's scummy if you read back. Regardless, Gorf or July is the lynch for toDay and you've already expressed that you don't want Gorf lynched. Be it V/LA or whatever your reasoning your going to have to make a choice unless you want a NL which would be terrible.That depends, are you going to just ask for a vote or are you going to present a case?
Just quoting this again so people know where this is coming from.
I'm all for the OS' number games don't get me wrong but at the same time this post seems weird to me. It seems like he's almost relieved that we would be looking for SK rather then mafia, the way he's posting seems to be trying to forcibly say to Zen that you either go for SK or you're anti-town. In fact he further substantiates on that with the extremely weird reasoning of.. if BSL flips mafia.. Zen is Serial Killer.. I just don't see the connection there.
I'm assuming it comes from the fact that Zen as a SK would be looking for mafia and he makes it appear to be his primary focus that BSL is mafia but idk.. if I'm town and I have a scum read on D1 with two factions I'm not entirely too concerned with what side I've pinned down.
These two posts are what I was talking about before, also he does later say he feels Soup is town for his scum read on BSL. Now unless I'm missing something between that post and this one it basically seems like a complete and total contradiction and one that stuck out at me originally but was overshadowed by my original hatred of the Zen slot.
He brings it up here again actually.. Soup-BSL connection. He says his reads are spot on which is some weird confidence and yet if he's saying his reads are so solid then why is it just based off of Zen's dealing with mechanics and from what I see Non-existent PoE
Fair enough. I do agree that I don't like his post wrt OS' mechanics and its scummy as balls but his linkage of BSL and Zen doesn't bother me at all nor does his flip on soup because, lets be honest, soup is acting so sporadically he might as well be a wild card.He clarifies that Soup makes some post that "changes everything"
But I'm not seeing a post from soup that could legitimately 180 him that hard, the thing I can see making him 180 is the pressure from Zen along with Kuz affirming that he thinks Soup is a town read. Gorf who has primarily been buddying Kuz quickly changes his read on Soup.. convenient and scummy.
Again, useless post.Haven't read entirely but saw this and wanted to note that I agree. I don't see how any one person flipping mafia would result in any one person being automatically the serial killer as they shouldn't know who each other are.
The only exception to this is if there is no kill after a night phase, meaning that the SERIAL KILLER would know one of the mafia, not the other way around. So still no dice as presented.
Back to work.
tell me one of them [scumpicks] please with reasoning that isn't based on mechanics
Activity & effort ≠ town even though I agree that OS' lack of viable content is scummy. Can you remind me of your read on July?OS, as a power player, I would imagine should have much more mafia playing done at this point. He's spent so much time deliberating on and debating mechanics that his actual scumhunting took a backseat to it. Once he saw that some of the town wouldn't follow the Kingmaker mod, he should've dropped it and moved on.
As far as the rest of my reads, I've explained my BW read.
KevMo is scummy for similar reasons to OS. He's got a big name in the SWF crowd, but I'm not seeing big play here. It's similar to his play from HxH, in a way. He wasn't doing much. He did enough, but that's it. Here he really isn't doing enough. Or wasn't rather. He's been stepping it up.
Zen is towny because I can see him putting an effort in. He's hard to read (see HxH), but it seems pretty genuine.
Soup, as I've said before, is putting a lot of work into scumhunting. He was focused on me, and I know he likes to take one read and hit it super hard, and that's what he was doing. I see it as a good thing, even though it was me he was on. Soup also didn't play like the scumSoup I've seen in HxH and LoL uPick.
Kuz has been putting in plenty of work, too much to fake. So I can't imagine him being mafia. Even if he's SK, an idea I know has been thrown around a little, then his reads are still valid. Since he and Gorf have been gone for so long, I think his relationship with Gorf, as well as the fact that his last mafia experience had Gorf in it (right?), puts his ability to read Gorf above everyone else's.
So I'm going to put Gorf as nulltown because of that.
Better, Soup?
OS doesn't have meta so I'll take your point as moot. Regardless, I have seen OS teach self-destructive townies how to play better for the sake of looking good. Just because he likes self destructive townies doesn't mean he can't take 10 seconds out of his day to make a post to earn him town cred. It would be so easy and, especially after the fact that the BSL wagon flopped, he'd have no problem saying that as there was no more pressure of the actual lynch. And even if I havn't seen him do it before, OS is a good scum player. That much is certain. It really isn't hard for him to craft that post as any alignment in this situation he was in because there was no credible threat to the BSL wagon finalizing. You're giving him too easy a break on this for sure.Kuz let me know what you think about this. I was going to quote three posts and ask you which of them you believe has a town tell, but I'll just go ahead and point it out. I think you're wrong in OS being mafia. Below is a post I'd probably stake my entire read on with regards to OS.
This is the most un mafia-like post ever. Especially OS-mafia-like. OS scum loves self-destructive town. OS taking the time out to make this post as mafia just doesn't fit. As mafia, OS would probably just be looking for a lynch to happen today so long as it's not him or his buddy. This does not look like that at all. This is OS looking to get a GOOD lynch today. Not just any lynch as mafia would. He actually wants BSL to stop saying something that murks up people's ability to read him properly. Ya know?
This is why I asked OS the question below. I wanted to confirm what kind of mafia game OS would play in this setup:
This is why OS suddenly jumped to my town list in my reads list I posted after this. Do you agree with what I see here Kuz? Just not looking like Mafia OS play. Looks more like Celebrity OS.
To do what, satisfy your curiosity? That's not how I play. If something's worth pushing, I'll push it. If it isn't I'll hunt for information or the best strategy until I can push it. You can deal.I never asked for a case I want you to tell me who else you find scummy with a few points as to why. Do that.
Why are you skimming? You seem to be giving adequate activity in other games and, since this certainly isn't a huge D1 (and most of the early game is just OS' walls anyway) I see no reason why you can't find the time to produce activity here. I mentioned before you seemed too sporadic and worried about your image before, but now you've seemed to go to the complete other side of the spectrum. Whether that's in direct response to my callout or your disinterested in this Day (as scum would be D1), I don't like it.I'd rather have Badwolf if you wanted an honest answer. I don't have Jack on July. I've been skimming some things so if someone laid out a case (I believe kuz) then I'll read it.
You see though, Soup, you were already ready to switch to Gorf before Zen posted reasoning on Gorf.Gorf is just assumption based on what Zen presented and how I look at it comparative to how I was before. I had Gorf as town for the sake that he was being chilled and relaxed about things, much like the reason Kuz did. I can't ignore what Zen said however and that contradiction is very credible.
So you clearly had the idea that that Gorf was scummy before Zen posted the contradiction on which you're basing your reasoning as a crutch. Well you might say that you only said that you'd want lynch Gorf over July, you've said multiple times that you can't read July (null) and that you had Gorf as town previously because of reasoning similar to mine. You even ask Zen in your next post if he will collaborate with you to lynch Gorf before he posted reasoning.I'd lynch Gorf over July.