Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia- Fish

[BSL]

On that note I'd like to apologize for not taking this into account when I signed up. I didn't think I'd have to put in the amount of work I did on finals.

Even if I had, I don't think I would've realized the effect it would have on your play, OS, and for that I am even more sorry.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I sent a PM to DH saying the scum was a combination of Kevin/Kuz/July.

Welp. Good job OS.

 

[Overswarm]

OS, when you cleared me based on the fact that I was still reading the game (you said you saw me viewing), were you just bull****ting that? Or did you actually think you saw me? I hadn't viewed the thread since Sunday morning (the day after I replaced out), and that was only because I had the tab left open from Saturday night when I was trying to finish my reread.

Mostly BS. Saw you there once, extrapolated.

Cool. Well-manoeuvred. Good win.

I suspected OS, but wasn't going to get an OS lynch that Day given that I had no hard evidence and Ryu/J were on each others' backs. So I said I thought J was scum prior to dying, knowing that a Ryu SK would see that and my talk to the SK as an opportunity for an easy LyLo with me alive. I should've said it was more than a lean on J, as that would've made it pretty obvious when I died that Ryu wasn't the SK. As it is, Ryu didn't even come out of the gate fully on J at the start of the Day, which I think should've been good cause to look hard at OS.

Oh well.

And that's why you died.

An inconvenience for you versus an autoloss for town. From anyone else's perspective other than yours, I think it's obvious which one is the better choice.

I'm also willing to bet that you wouldn't be complaining about this if you were town.

I have complained about it as town before. :B

 

[#HBC | J]

Oh well. Good game OS. I probably would have lynched RR but replacing in LyLo is weird but the game needed it. Nothing much to say really

 

[Overswarm]

I'd say no MVP for this game even though I had a 0% chance of losing the game through my own actions, it just wasn't very hard. Combination of poor town play and lots of replacements. KevinM just got lucky July got shot.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Knowing it was KevinM, I realized my post about mafia strategy was pointless because he was going to compete every Night.

man I lol'd so much

i do love it when you do a good post-mortem analysis OS, congrats on the win.

 

[KevinM]

I mean, it wasn't hard to convince July to cooperate because I laid out some BS about how the game was an autowin. Knowing I can't be night killed and knowing nobody had the thread power to force a lynch on me gave me a free win.. it's not really an MVP performance as much as just taking advantage of a weak town.

 

[KevinM]

Also of course I'm going to compete every night, I'm a ****ing baller.

 

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

Yeah, pretty much decided.

No mvp.

 

[KevinM]

Also OS for what it's worth when I knew you were SK I started buddying July hard so you would shoot her I don't know if you noticed and that influenced or you truly were just trying to form a Lylo team but thanks for the help brobro. That's why I tried to hard to push a lynch OFF of her D1.

 

[Overswarm]

Also OS for what it's worth when I knew you were SK I started buddying July hard so you would shoot her I don't know if you noticed and that influenced or you truly were just trying to form a Lylo team but thanks for the help brobro. That's why I tried to hard to push a lynch OFF of her D1.

Didn't even catch it because you were buddying with errybody. :B

 

[KevinM]

Hey you know what they say

Work hard Play hard.

 

[Overswarm]

man I lol'd so much

i do love it when you do a good post-mortem analysis OS, congrats on the win.

I actually think about what I'm doing in a game before I do it and take notes in serious ones, and I really do like the idea of people understanding my meta. It makes things more challenging when people like Red Ryu pick up on what I do and are able to force me down a different path. I played this SK game differently than I would have a year ago, for example.

I wish others would do it, but from what I've read from other people they mostly just do random reactionary stuff and kinda hope it works out and feel justified when it works. People are liars.

I asked people to send in their scum picks every Night phase so I can see if someone really thinks so or not. Most of the people that are considered "good scum hunters" had below statistical probability of being correct.

It made me understand a lot more about mafia after that.

 

[KevinM]

OS we should hydra sometime, and or talk about mafia sometime I'd be really interested in that.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

I actually think about what I'm doing in a game before I do it and take notes in serious ones, and I really do like the idea of people understanding my meta. It makes things more challenging when people like Red Ryu pick up on what I do and are able to force me down a different path. I played this SK game differently than I would have a year ago, for example.

For the most part I always play the same way... I just pick out whatever I want to push/achieve from a situation/slot and try and post to accomplish that. I don't have an overall plan insofar as i'm picking up on things as they come up and trying to paint a picture of what's going on.

I wish others would do it, but from what I've read from other people they mostly just do random reactionary stuff and kinda hope it works out and feel justified when it works. People are liars.

as either alignment? I'll be the first to admit that my inital reads are often off, and that even when they're right, I can be persuaded off of them. But my playstyle generally involves pushing my reads to see if the reactions I get are what i'd expect, and I think my strengths lie in being able to analyze a playerslot etc. and draw the right conclusion.

I asked people to send in their scum picks every Night phase so I can see if someone really thinks so or not. Most of the people that are considered "good scum hunters" had below statistical probability of being correct.

w.r.t. the above, i don't think that being right about the scumteam on a given night is actually important. bring methodical about who's most likely to be scum, and be on a scumteam is more important than having good reads in early Days imo

It made me understand a lot more about mafia after that.

:D

i'm not sure what sort of a response this exactly. i dunno i guess i wanna talk about mafia theory or playstyles or something.

 

[ranmaru]

I actually think about what I'm doing in a game before I do it and take notes in serious ones, and I really do like the idea of people understanding my meta. It makes things more challenging when people like Red Ryu pick up on what I do and are able to force me down a different path. I played this SK game differently than I would have a year ago, for example.

I wish others would do it, but from what I've read from other people they mostly just do random reactionary stuff and kinda hope it works out and feel justified when it works. People are liars.

I asked people to send in their scum picks every Night phase so I can see if someone really thinks so or not. Most of the people that are considered "good scum hunters" had below statistical probability of being correct.

It made me understand a lot more about mafia after that.

Playing on gut is funner for me. Im too impatient to wait. I am interested in what hindsight you think i should have tho.

 

[Overswarm]

OS we should hydra sometime, and or talk about mafia sometime I'd be really interested in that.

am down

w.r.t. the above, i don't think that being right about the scumteam on a given night is actually important. bring methodical about who's most likely to be scum, and be on a scumteam is more important than having good reads in early Days imo

Yeah but these reads were determining their Night actions. Important to note that pretty much every day started with everyone having no idea who scum was for sure.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Yeah but these reads were determining their Night actions. Important to note that pretty much every day started with everyone having no idea who scum was for sure.

well right enough. I don't think i've ever had a NA I didn't have a reasonable idea what to do with. but still, interesting.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

What should I have done differently here?

 

[#HBC | J]

Not voted till I could actually sit down and respond.

But otherwise I would say be more here and in the now instead of looking at the past.

 

[Overswarm]

Few things.

1) Don't make other people think you're town. Doing so makes you look scummy. This is good advice for town or scum. Just push your case and make yourself town by PoE. Trying to make yourself look town by saying "I'm contributing guys!" doesn't really do much. It can be better to just be inactive til you can come back to the thread.

2) Think backwards, not forwards.

Thinking forwards, the SK could have been any of us.

Thinking backwards? Just me or you.

The Serial Killer wins. How does he win? Either Red Ryu or Overswarm votes for J, or J or Overswarm votes for Red Ryu.

Wait a minute, Overswarm is listed there twice and neither player is voting for him. Would the Serial Killer present this scenario as J?

Move backwards from there. What threat was July, Soup? Was anyone a threat to Kuz/J that didn't get killed when they should have?

Oh wait, Zen. Zen was against Kuz and has been. No reason for SK kuz to leave Zen alive when Zen was all over the map and still openly against him. Not for July or Soup.

Must be Overswarm. To double check, does this make sense for OS? Hell yes it does, he's the only one left alive that doesn't have an aggressor and he's straddling the fence, so he's down to lynch either remaining party? TvT with the SK making the call. Sounds like OS, doesn't it?

Best make a final check. Let's wait for J to post and see if J is still after Red Ryu, if he does, he's town. If J goes after Overswarm though, then he's scum trying to save his skin.


Reasoning like that will help you find scum with a plan more than anything else.

3) Don't take the lead, and if you do, use it to pressure other people.

I sat there and demanded that you post your reads and threatened you with a lynch. You agreed you needed to post your reads and went above and beyond with an ISO!

While I got sit and wait for you to vote.

If you had instead just questioned me, there's a chance I can slip up as scum. If you're taking the lead role and using it to make statements, you're convincing others. If you ask questions, they're convincing you.

 

[T-block]

Someone explain something to me. How was this a prisoner's dilemma?

Let's say your mafia partner outright states he is going to Compete.

If you Cooperate:
-If you get targetted, you lose.
-If your partner gets targetted, you need to win solo, but you don't lose right away.

If you Compete:
-If you get targetted, you lose.
-If your partner gets targetted, you lose.

So if you know your partner is going to Compete, it's actually strictly better to Cooperate, since you would still have a chance to win if he is targetted, whereas you wouldn't have that chance if you also choose to Compete. And if you are targetted, you lose in both cases. That's assuming that losing to your partner is equivalent to losing to dying as lovers, which it seems is the case here, according to the rules.

If I rolled mafia, I would have stated right away that I was going to Compete, and then explained this in the QT. Then a rational player (ie- one who continued to try to play the game and not just say "well that's dumb, i'm just gonna compete and take us both out then") would choose to Cooperate.

Am I missing something?

Interesting mechanic nonetheless... I guess the game then becomes who will make the more believable threat. Because I can threaten to be committed to Compete, but if the other player also claims to be choosing Compete, then the rational course of action for me as well is to Cooperate. Without a way to make a credible threat, the Nash equilibrium might still end up on (Compete, Compete), but definitely not in the same way the traditional prisoner's dilemma does.

 

[Overswarm]

The prisoner's dilemma doesn't occur in an exchange between the two mafia, but rather a reflection of believed threat from the serial killer. The mafia would have had a better function if being lynched counted the same as an SK kill since there was more information for t hat, but whatevs.

Still doesn't fit it to a T, but whatevs.