Okay, couple of things:
First off, big thumbs down to Dark Horse. I dislike how he moderated this game. Seriously, replacing two people in lylo is a **** move. The people left alive were left alive
on purpose and the entire game changed in one fell swoop. I had to change nearly everything about my play while still sticking to the same strategy and if Nabe hadn't been so inactive I would have lost solely on the fact that two people came in with a fresh face and the only one who WASN'T an immediate replacement was a replacement on a slot whose only major contributions was pre-replacement.
There are modkills and prods and activity rules for a reason. Replacing not one, but two people in lylo, might sound good from a mod perspective but it's awful from a player perspective.
I'm playing a game of chess and towards the climax of the game you take out the rookie and replace him with a ranked player, you get a different outcome. I get that it sucks to have your game ruined by inactivity, but if that's the way it falls then that's how it falls.
As for strategy:
I figured it out pretty early that this game was not designed for the SK to win. Mafia clearly had the best chance at winning if they just used compete every Night. So I had to play strong early and either cement myself as a town, but not too town, member or die early. High risk / high reward. I have to remain a lynch option so that I'm not a lynch option in lylo, if that makes sense. If I push the right (town) lynches and get mafia behind me, I'd have a good shot at winning.
My strategy was to actually tell people how to best play the game because there's always some genius in every game who does the opposite. If you all had done Kingmaker I wouldn't have had the ability to direct
anyone and if mafia had gotten kingmaker I'd have been toast. Didn't lie about that at all, just knew someone wouldn't trust it and thus it wouldn't occur, but there'd be a few voices saying it was an okay strategy and would overall be a null tell that contributed to the null/town meta people ascribe to me.
I gave mafia the best strategy for winning too, but I painted it as such that if one of them got lynched it would be hell to have the other one win when, in reality, it wouldn't. It'd be a little bit harder, but no harder than the SK has in the first place. This structure would make it more likely for scum to compete instead of cooperating, even though that's the best strategy. Fear is awesome!
I was lucky that Zen was in the game because he likes to butt heads with me and pretend he's awesome, so it was guaranteed that no one was going to do Kingmaker. He's cocksure enough that he doesn't pay attention to subtleties, just major events, so I didn't even have to act for very long.
"Hey guys let's do kingmaker"
"No OS that's dumb"
"Oh okay, nevermind"
No one called me out on not defending my own plan and Zen even defended me later and cited me dropping it so quickly as a good thing. Blew my mind because I never let go of anything in any game unless I openly find a flaw in it, which I then explain. This time I was just like "eh, if you guys dun wanna" and let it ride.
Unfortunately, I didn't want Zen to think I was town. I wanted him to think I was scum all game long and leave him until end game as an antagonist to me. By leaving Zen as an antagonist and leaving us both until lylo (Zen wouldn't get lynched unless I was behind it or both mafia, and neither would happen), I get to present the question:
"Hey third/fourth guy(s)! If Zen/OS is the serial killer, why is OS/Zen still around? They've been at each other's throats all game. This is pretty obviously TvT."
This is dangerous cuz I might get lynched early, but I needed a lot of weight at the end of the game. A lylo of me, soup, and gorf, for example, would have been disastrous. Having a history with Zen makes it way easier because I have a way to frame the narrative.
But Zen messed it up by calling me town. I was inactive, legit inactive for some of it, and lost control of the day. But lucky me, Kuz replaced him! So I antagonized Kuz and created pages 8-11 amongst other things so that way I'd have that to fall back on to paint Kuz as someone who'd more likely be the serial killer. It helps that Kuz posted in a bubble and didn't think about how it'd be read in the future, but that's primarily because there were replacements at the end. Kuz himself would have just explained himself.
I killed on N1.... Soup! Because no one would ever lynch Soup (although I thought it was going to happen for a moment and was like whaaaaaaaaaat) and Soup is smart. He's one of the players that moves sideways more often than not and he was probably the hardest player to influence in this game. Pushing a lynch on him would result in making it me or soup, while pushing a lynch on zen or kuz I can pit them against another player.
I didn't want to NKill at all to make mafia paranoid and compete afterwards, but I couldn't because of compulsion and really it'd just be flair rather than a good strategic choice anyway.
I found out pretty early on that KevinM was scum but I didn't let myself believe it at first. He buddied me hardcore knowing I'd have pushed him hard if he hadn't (at least if I was town) and I saw that he was being agreeable to just about everyone and at the same time not helpful to town in any way shape or form. It was a suspicion at first but when he kept at it? Definiately scum. Knowing it was KevinM, I realized my post about mafia strategy was pointless because he was going to compete every Night. So killing KevinM would be silly. I just need to find his partner!
Day 2 was... fail on town's part. The original plan was going to be culling the playlist to people I like by backing the right horse. Turns out that didn't need to occur because no one friggin' posted. I had to remain inactive so people didn't realize I cared.
Night falls and I didn't know July was mafia (no clue, actually!) and simply hoped she was mafia. I chose July based off of who was left on the playerlist and who I wanted in Lylo.
Ryu had to be a voice of reason and my Zen substitute; Ryu wouldn't rush things and would be critical of those who did (rightly so) and this would give me an opportunity to end the game early. If Nabe or J had voted for someone, anyone, in Lylo, Red Ryu would have gone for the throat.
Kuz was my foil I had set up on D1 and needed to stick around for that reason (although technically I had one in Zen, I was sure that wouldn't work)
BSL just wasn't scary. July in lylo could have been scary, BSL in lylo couldn't. July was a better choice between the two.
KevinM was a teddy bear and wasn't able to push or join a lynch on me without drawing attention to himself which he wouldn't do.
After those two deaths I have the lylo I wanted:
Me
BSL
Red Ryu
Kuz
the game would go with Kuz being a sneaky suspect AND the one pushing for anyone else, including both me and Red Ryu. BSL would be totally neutral and not lead credence to Kuz's push. Red Ryu would be questioning to Kuz and react poorly to Kuz's pressure on him. I would be able to find the easiest path and take it, likely being the voice of reason and saying "no lynch" and then killing BSL.
Instead
Kuz and BSL were both replaced in lylo with Nabe and J, two players I would have killed immediately so they weren't around in lylo. It's like two high school kids came back from halftime and they were suddenly NBA all stars. All the conditioning was gone save for the bit that Red Ryu could have gotten in such a short time span with no Day 2. I was reliant on them choosing "not me" which was dependent solely on how much they re-read the thread and how they reacted to it.
I couldn't even push Kuz to explain his statements (which would draw attention to him from Ryu) because
he wasn't Kuz.
Hated that.
Also hated the fact that I was the only one left who didn't replace out. No one replaces out as the SK unless something legit comes up, so if I were on the other team I'd have lynched me. XD
So now that I'm in this nightmare scenario, I gamble on seeing if the game can end early. Dark Horse openly confirms that kills are forced so I can't use the no NK as an excuse and J is inactive as a replacement (lawl), Nabe is only mildly active, and Red Ryu is too careful for me to push in that way. So, No Lynch it was. I kill Nabe because screw keeping Nabe around in lylo. J wanted Ryu and Ryu wanted J.
Lylo was then just stalling for time until one of them voted. I straddled the fence like a good townie would while simultaneously saying which way I was leaning, then I just had questions lined up to throw out. Eventually someone would vote. If they didn't, I'd keep asking questions until deadline hit and throw down my vote, but the major plan was to wait and hammer after someone else voted.
If someone had voted early on I had thought about just saying "you shouldn't vote so early. Unvote! What if I was the serial killer?" just to mess with everyone's heads, but the opportunity didn't arise until recently and I was bored of this game by that point.
So how can you FIND a SK in this setup?
Kingmaker. Seriously, it makes the SK's job super hard. He has to gamble. If, for example, we made Soup kingmaker on D1 via vote and everyone <3's soup, he's going to try to lynch the SK, may or may not be successful.
What does SK do? He either has to kill Soup or leave him alive, and if he leaves him alive it means that he has to convince town to lynch him later or have Soup on his side.
So if Soup lives, you know he's either A) the SK , B) not ever going to lynch the SK, or C) being harassed and condemned by the SK every chance possible
Much easier to spot in that fashion. It gets worse as time goes on because town is less likely to kill inactives and troublemakers, but a kingmaker can kill whoever he wants. There's no way to predict both who is going to be King AND who is going to be lynched. You can maybe influence it but it's always obvious when you try to influence a king in a KM setup.
Just doing KM iterations should net you the scum by itself, but on top of all of this just think like an SK.
If you're the SK and you kill someone, you don't want it coming back to you
If you're the SK you have to win in lylo via lynch occurring to someone else
For the first one, look for people that weren't super close to the SK. More likely than not it's true.
For the second, know that the SK is (if he is good) manufacturing a lylo of people he wants around.
This means that the ONLY people left in lylo are going to be people that
A) aren't close to the SK
B) aren't likely to lynch him successfully
If you look at the people left in lylo of J, Nabe, Ryu, and myself, the best Night kill option was pretty apparent from all parties.
J? Kill Ryu or Overswarm.
Ryu? Kill J or Nabe.
Nabe? Kill Overswarm.
Overswarm? Kill Nabe.
There were only two people that could have logically killed nabe and that was myself or Ryu.. That might not sound like much since it'd be me and ryu against each other and J dropping the hammer but it guarantees a 50/50 split.
But yeah, when you're hunting a SK do kingmaker and just ask yourself "who is this lylo acceptable to" and realize that's likely going to be the serial killer.