• Welcome to Smashboards, the world's largest Super Smash Brothers community! Over 250,000 Smash Bros. fans from around the world have come to discuss these great games in over 19 million posts!

    You are currently viewing our boards as a visitor. Click here to sign up right now and start on your path in the Smash community!

Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia- Fish

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Page 3 continued again: I like OS's rebuttal to Kuz here, I'm still trying to see why Kuz is against it legitimate outside of the outlit argument which makes no sense since any subject can be used like that. Though main Reason I personally do not like it is the fact the compete mechanic exists for scum.

While Kuz #115 is weird, its like he wants to avoid talking about the mechanics of the game and just go to scum hunting, I think he is wrong here on tells with talking about mechanics, more so if play focuses only on mechanics if it is a problem to me.

#117 is fine on the top, meh on the bottom, still nothing on the BSP read.

Page 4: Kuz directs on BSL but offers nothing of what he thinks of it. His next post makes me think he could have used BSL for a topic of discussion to figure out other players, but still unclear here.

OS points it out and then directs questioning to BSL, seems more along what I would look at as well and seems to look at what he might have been doing, poor town play or scum play.

Don't agree with Kuz #128.

Nothing on KevinM call out for coasting from Kuz, null tell.

Kuz asked BSL about Soup town read.

OS #150 is a null tell about mechanics a bit more.

I don't get OS's point ont he Serial killer shooting mafia being a bad thing. Lower part is more mechanical talk, and it looks like he is trying to maximize the mechanical variables for winning.

~

Gonna run to work Page 5 is next.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
No one reads this slow >_<

I still don't know exactly what you are doing. J has been gone for days and he's able to come in and cleanly illustrate his thoughts and make his conclusion. You make your conclusion and then go to read the thread to find your thoughts?

I understand wanting to re-read the entire game but it feels like you're just combing the thread for breadcrumbs you can lay against Kuz.

What, in your opinion, is what really makes Kuz scum. That's all I need then I have some questions for J.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
i wont let gord lynch happen he town.

why u trying to ml zen.
One of the main things that screamed scum was this, which proceeded to a Gorf lynch.

Mind you when he did we got a deadline extension so no deadline or ML was possible to argue, he was on Zen a very possible lynch D1, with 3 days left. Why would he vote yet pronounce 3 times that Gorf was town one saying he wouldn't do it, but does it anyways.

Thus is exactly what I did with Gova to force a lynch in league mafia. He wanted a mislynch.

Will get to the you v him point later.

:phone:
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
I still wanna finish my reread I'm making myself tonight, but with 4 days left I'll get to the nit and gritty first then finalize reread.

:phone:
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
I'm trying to see why Kuz went from don't lynch Gorf to supporting and doing it.

Also what he gained from OS pressure, not seeing either.

:phone:
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Page 5: Kuz calls BW town already, I'm not sure how he achieved this so early at this point, I didn't see a reason to put him as town. Why did he also ask if Mafia has a NK? Why ask this publicly?

Next Kuz post asks for Soup reads, null.

#192 shows Kuz calling out Soup for bussing BSL, both flipped town at this point but again not sure on thought process here.

#196, says he can't read OS, Soup is leaning scum, KevinM town.

Page 6:

Kuz calls out Soup for being transparent because he keeps saying if Kuz is an indy this game is screwed. Can be a tell perhaps, but Soup flipped town, so a mute point here.

#209 is more poking at Soup on an indy read.

Then he votes Gorf for his reads on scum.

Next post shows it is a joke and he votes BSL.

Zen wtf, why are you following Kuz like this.

Kuz prods Zen on his read on Soup, null.

#222 is fluff from Kuz. Just wants July to post and says OS is unreadable, strange, he calls out Soup for being transparent but he seems to be applying a similar thing to OS calling him unreadable. Second time he brought unreadable OS up.

#225 is more asking of Zen for reads on BSL and his possible mate. Kuz.

#229 is Kuz more so about how Soup is all over the place and how he asks questions that lead to nowhere, I don't agree with this but I can kind of see what he was looking for. So +Kuz here even if I disagree.

#232 is meta on Soup from DK mafia, no clue on legitimacy.

next post is showing strong confidence in Soup scum, I wanna see where he goes with this at this point since I don't recall him having it at the end of d1.

#237 is useless from Kuz.

#239 has some merit, but at this point I know Soups flip but how well did his investigation hold at this point from Kuz's standpoint. Like before, I don't agree with his read on Soup but I can sort of see where he was coming from.

Will continue page 7 in a sec.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Page 7:

OS openly states he think Soup will be shot at....huh? Where did he get this idea from? Soup was indeed the first shot but why did he think this if he is unsure why scum shot him later on Day 3 when he said he has no clue why Soup at shot at?

OS do tell here.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Page 7 continued:

I do understand why OS is saying get the Serial Killer first in this situation.

Kuz just questioning Soup more on his reads.

Kuz says he would have Gorf the Serial killer due to some Triangles he is seeing, which I guess works?

Kuz keeps the mud on OS going. Don't see how mechanics applied previously since OS is seeing connections and things to link people together with the Triangles and how BW and Gorf are not a part of it.

Next two posts are null from Kuz just a question and complement to Kuz.

Kuz wants July to Post.

OS responds to some of July's first post, then immediately direct Kuz to look into her and get a read.

Page 8-10 next.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Page 7:

OS openly states he think Soup will be shot at....huh? Where did he get this idea from? Soup was indeed the first shot but why did he think this if he is unsure why scum shot him later on Day 3 when he said he has no clue why Soup at shot at?

OS do tell here.
Don't twist my words. Soup was one of the most likely targets for an SK, not the only; I don't know why Soup himself was chosen, but I know what category he fit in. He was active and no one wanted to lynch him. Why Soup exactly I dunno, but there's no reason for the SK to kill anyone that has a higher likelihood of being lynched.

Speaking of around page 10, do you believe Kuz was playing "sloppy" during this time period?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Rushed, yes, sloppy, no.

11 page paper he stated before but I don't think it is directly sloppy behavior from a townie.

Also around Page 11 he keeps the mudslinging around and I don't see him make any attempt at trying to push you over just trying to make people less likely to trust you. This is directly what I think players do around here as mafia unless it is Ryker as town trying to gain thread power so he can run the show. They throw mud on people to create doubt, but make no attempt at a read on the player nor try to have other see them as a good scum pick, just leaving them around so they can see where others see that read. Kuz said he finds you hard to read, but still, no attempt at trying to get to read from most of his posts, nor does he try to push you and see what you do in response.

This is what I don't get, he constantly has problems with your play. He makes it very, very clear you are looking at mechanics a lot. At times when you are trying to use that as a tool to get reads, like when you asked July questions on BSL, he still throws it out as mechanical talk that can be given basic answers when that clearly isn't the case. It's looking for connections and how players react. At worst it is a null tell from your questioning, but Kuz just keeps this transparent thought that you just look at mechanics without, what I think, is him not truly reading what you are posting nor thinking about the end results.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
I meant sloppy as a serial killer, not as a townie. From that perspective; that's what I was looking at at that time.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
What in particular makes you think he is the serial killer from those few pages (~8-11)? What exactly is sloppy?
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
I'd like this to be done before the weekend, so I might have to speed up my questioning. I have questions for you too J, when you're ready.

We can start with this:

What of Kuz's complaints on Zen do you think are legitimate? Any you disagree with?
 

#HBC | J

Prince of DGamesia
Joined
Feb 14, 2010
Messages
7,591
Location
Colorado
You would have to be more specific in that regard because Kuz had quite a few complaints on Zen. Nothing seemed too arbitrary with regards to complaints that stuck out in my mind.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
I'm not being specific on purpose. You gotta do some legwork!

I'm leaning back and forth between you two and I'd really like some input from you guys, as in your actual player slots. Reading you two by reading previous players is hard. Honestly was close to voting you after re-reading Kuz on D1 again but I'm just waiting for Ryu to finish his reads and you to answer questions before I figure this out.

Part of me feels like my initial suspicion on Kuz's slot was correct and I'm just being paranoid towards Red Ryu because I don't fully understand why both Red Ryu and myself would be left here both wanting a Kuz lynch. I'm just gonna need to see some reasoning before I place my vote, and I need it from your guys' mouths.

Red Ryu's ISO is ultimately not what I'm looking for but its getting some meat amidst the fluff in there. Pages 8-11 are important pages for me and I'd like to know what you think, J. I am fully aware you do not know what Kuz was thinking.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
A serial killer has one threat, a lynch. His goal is to boast himself to being unlynchable while still not being seen as, why is this guy still here? Kuz has been playing more to discredit people as he goes, his poking at you merits nothing.

He calls you scum, but doesn't seem to act on it nor show any difference to where he can gain an affirmative read, instead he keeps a smear campaign going, he doesn't push nor vote on any of this, just throws it out there with him saying, he can't read you and he keeps this transparent thought during this. He keeps a constant read of scum on you.

This is sloppy because he doesn't show any analysis, just keeping a clear distinct anti-OS stance regardless of what your alignment is.

Even at times I don't see it looking like he is reading when he calls you giving a read of Gorf town as useless at the time, then following that quoting a question to July that gives connections as useless.

At that point it's clear he's not invested at evaluating you, he wants to just call you scum, that is the sloppy play.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Uhm

Alright so there's two reasons I see for this:
-You don't have an indy read.
-You are indy.

I'm trying to see why you would want to keep a facade with the first. I guess to make indy feel nervous and post more cautiously? I don't know mate.

The second is pretty obvious. Indy would like to get rid of mafia as soon as possible. Revealing your indy read would cause you to have to lynch them, especially since most people want to lynch indy today. Indy will need to have someone around they can pose as indy in the long run. It's best they not reveal it early on, so that player doesn't have more time for rebuttal and so that they aren't lynched before indy is ready for them to be lynched (endgame).

The possibilities of the the second are more consequential then the possible benefits of the first scenario. So I'd much rather you give your indy read pretty much now. I'm sure Overswarm would agree with me.

These two together really make no sense. Your first post clearly indicates that you being around is a necessity for the ease of the lynch, otherwise you wouldn't have included the phrase in the first place "IF I'm around later". You quickly saw what was wrong with that and added tried to amend it, but the amendment doesn't follow a logical thought process. If you're confident town will lynch indy without you, then what reason is there for you keeping your read in the dark at the moment? If indy is very apparent, then there is absolutely no reason for you not to reveal who you believe it to be. If indy is not apparent, then it would be incredibly anti-win condition to not reveal your thoughts on that given that you have the possibility of dying during the night. Unless of course you don't feel there is a possibility of you dying. You dig?
You know this actually sums up some of my problems with D1 Kuz.

:phone:
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Cuz his demeanor is carefree and unconcerned. hes not trying that hard and he looks like he's just crusin' along. he only gets tactical and manipulative as scum.

i dont get why you're scum reading him. he's clearly not playing scummy, just careless
And yet he still voted him while not pushing July or Zen.

:phone:
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
I had you as indy since your second or third post! I can show you my personal QT with notes to prove it! I just didn't want to let you know so you'd help me push my lynches without resistance, which I've said multiple times. Rather have you on my side fighting mafia and then lynch you later than fight with you from the getgo. Only problem is, since I realized I misread July, both lynches I'm looking at right now are unacceptable so I thought I'd unveil my indy read sooner than expected.

And wow, AtE much? Mafia is a game of deceit and ulterior motives. You should know that better than anyone. Your reaction and tone reek of nervousness and haste which is something I doubt you would have done as town.

And wow, I'm a douchebag for saying your stuff on OS and Gorf wasn't legitimate?

...

Like, are you being serious? No way that response is real. Just because I'm contending it doesn't have merit doesn't mean that I'm attacking you as a player, I'm just saying that I think your information is moot. I've even thoroughly explained why it is moot, not just dismissed it with a wave of my hand.

You're floundering right now my dude. Wagon HOOOOOO!!
So he had no reason except on the spot with zen talking back?

:phone:
 

#HBC | Dark Horse

Mach-Hommy x Murakami
Joined
Jun 12, 2010
Messages
3,739
Votecount:
Overswarm [0]:
J [2]: OS, RR
Red Ruy [0]:

Not Voting: J

J has been lynched! He was Raptor Jesus Cheesefingers, Independent Jester! Game over! Congratulations for playing!



































































































Oh wait that's stupid.

J, Regular Guard, Vanilla Townie, has been lynched!

RR, Regular Guard, Vanilla Townie,, has been microwaved into oblivion!

Overswarm, Rogue Guard, Independent Serial Killer, has won in addition to KevinM!
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Watching a show with my girly at the moment. Will explain all later. This was pretty easy though, even after my legit inactivity on d1 made it impossible to control flow in any meaningful way. Didn't like the two replacements in lylo though, that made it more difficult than it should have been.

:phone:
 

#HBC | Dark Horse

Mach-Hommy x Murakami
Joined
Jun 12, 2010
Messages
3,739


Probably the best way to describe this game from my point of view. KevinM misses the night one deadline, leadimg me to believe this could be blown by inactivity. Needed TWO replacements in a four man lylo. Fortunatley, both of those were fixed pretty well.

Mvp is probably between either Kevin or no one. I'm tempted to not give it to kevin because he won by playing the setup like it should be played.

As for replacements in lylo, it was either that or modkill both of them due to inactivity. And honestly, OS, I feel like an inconvenience for you pales in comparison to the game ending prematurely.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
I thought I did ok, but it seems I was too tunneled on Kuz after D1. Shame, even then I didn't see anything that pointed to indy off hand.

Learned it's hard to nail something like that so I went with what I thought made sense, OS's play didn't fit that bill for me.

I'll reread each event and see where I went wrong and what I should have done differently with each situation.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Okay, couple of things:


How I beat all of you:​

First off, big thumbs down to Dark Horse. I dislike how he moderated this game. Seriously, replacing two people in lylo is a **** move. The people left alive were left alive on purpose and the entire game changed in one fell swoop. I had to change nearly everything about my play while still sticking to the same strategy and if Nabe hadn't been so inactive I would have lost solely on the fact that two people came in with a fresh face and the only one who WASN'T an immediate replacement was a replacement on a slot whose only major contributions was pre-replacement.

There are modkills and prods and activity rules for a reason. Replacing not one, but two people in lylo, might sound good from a mod perspective but it's awful from a player perspective.

I'm playing a game of chess and towards the climax of the game you take out the rookie and replace him with a ranked player, you get a different outcome. I get that it sucks to have your game ruined by inactivity, but if that's the way it falls then that's how it falls.


As for strategy:

I figured it out pretty early that this game was not designed for the SK to win. Mafia clearly had the best chance at winning if they just used compete every Night. So I had to play strong early and either cement myself as a town, but not too town, member or die early. High risk / high reward. I have to remain a lynch option so that I'm not a lynch option in lylo, if that makes sense. If I push the right (town) lynches and get mafia behind me, I'd have a good shot at winning.

My strategy was to actually tell people how to best play the game because there's always some genius in every game who does the opposite. If you all had done Kingmaker I wouldn't have had the ability to direct anyone and if mafia had gotten kingmaker I'd have been toast. Didn't lie about that at all, just knew someone wouldn't trust it and thus it wouldn't occur, but there'd be a few voices saying it was an okay strategy and would overall be a null tell that contributed to the null/town meta people ascribe to me.

I gave mafia the best strategy for winning too, but I painted it as such that if one of them got lynched it would be hell to have the other one win when, in reality, it wouldn't. It'd be a little bit harder, but no harder than the SK has in the first place. This structure would make it more likely for scum to compete instead of cooperating, even though that's the best strategy. Fear is awesome!

I was lucky that Zen was in the game because he likes to butt heads with me and pretend he's awesome, so it was guaranteed that no one was going to do Kingmaker. He's cocksure enough that he doesn't pay attention to subtleties, just major events, so I didn't even have to act for very long.

"Hey guys let's do kingmaker"
"No OS that's dumb"
"Oh okay, nevermind"

No one called me out on not defending my own plan and Zen even defended me later and cited me dropping it so quickly as a good thing. Blew my mind because I never let go of anything in any game unless I openly find a flaw in it, which I then explain. This time I was just like "eh, if you guys dun wanna" and let it ride.

Unfortunately, I didn't want Zen to think I was town. I wanted him to think I was scum all game long and leave him until end game as an antagonist to me. By leaving Zen as an antagonist and leaving us both until lylo (Zen wouldn't get lynched unless I was behind it or both mafia, and neither would happen), I get to present the question:

"Hey third/fourth guy(s)! If Zen/OS is the serial killer, why is OS/Zen still around? They've been at each other's throats all game. This is pretty obviously TvT."

This is dangerous cuz I might get lynched early, but I needed a lot of weight at the end of the game. A lylo of me, soup, and gorf, for example, would have been disastrous. Having a history with Zen makes it way easier because I have a way to frame the narrative.

But Zen messed it up by calling me town. I was inactive, legit inactive for some of it, and lost control of the day. But lucky me, Kuz replaced him! So I antagonized Kuz and created pages 8-11 amongst other things so that way I'd have that to fall back on to paint Kuz as someone who'd more likely be the serial killer. It helps that Kuz posted in a bubble and didn't think about how it'd be read in the future, but that's primarily because there were replacements at the end. Kuz himself would have just explained himself.

I killed on N1.... Soup! Because no one would ever lynch Soup (although I thought it was going to happen for a moment and was like whaaaaaaaaaat) and Soup is smart. He's one of the players that moves sideways more often than not and he was probably the hardest player to influence in this game. Pushing a lynch on him would result in making it me or soup, while pushing a lynch on zen or kuz I can pit them against another player.

I didn't want to NKill at all to make mafia paranoid and compete afterwards, but I couldn't because of compulsion and really it'd just be flair rather than a good strategic choice anyway.

I found out pretty early on that KevinM was scum but I didn't let myself believe it at first. He buddied me hardcore knowing I'd have pushed him hard if he hadn't (at least if I was town) and I saw that he was being agreeable to just about everyone and at the same time not helpful to town in any way shape or form. It was a suspicion at first but when he kept at it? Definiately scum. Knowing it was KevinM, I realized my post about mafia strategy was pointless because he was going to compete every Night. So killing KevinM would be silly. I just need to find his partner!

Day 2 was... fail on town's part. The original plan was going to be culling the playlist to people I like by backing the right horse. Turns out that didn't need to occur because no one friggin' posted. I had to remain inactive so people didn't realize I cared.

Night falls and I didn't know July was mafia (no clue, actually!) and simply hoped she was mafia. I chose July based off of who was left on the playerlist and who I wanted in Lylo.

Ryu had to be a voice of reason and my Zen substitute; Ryu wouldn't rush things and would be critical of those who did (rightly so) and this would give me an opportunity to end the game early. If Nabe or J had voted for someone, anyone, in Lylo, Red Ryu would have gone for the throat.

Kuz was my foil I had set up on D1 and needed to stick around for that reason (although technically I had one in Zen, I was sure that wouldn't work)

BSL just wasn't scary. July in lylo could have been scary, BSL in lylo couldn't. July was a better choice between the two.

KevinM was a teddy bear and wasn't able to push or join a lynch on me without drawing attention to himself which he wouldn't do.


After those two deaths I have the lylo I wanted:

Me
BSL
Red Ryu
Kuz

the game would go with Kuz being a sneaky suspect AND the one pushing for anyone else, including both me and Red Ryu. BSL would be totally neutral and not lead credence to Kuz's push. Red Ryu would be questioning to Kuz and react poorly to Kuz's pressure on him. I would be able to find the easiest path and take it, likely being the voice of reason and saying "no lynch" and then killing BSL.

Instead

Kuz and BSL were both replaced in lylo with Nabe and J, two players I would have killed immediately so they weren't around in lylo. It's like two high school kids came back from halftime and they were suddenly NBA all stars. All the conditioning was gone save for the bit that Red Ryu could have gotten in such a short time span with no Day 2. I was reliant on them choosing "not me" which was dependent solely on how much they re-read the thread and how they reacted to it.

I couldn't even push Kuz to explain his statements (which would draw attention to him from Ryu) because he wasn't Kuz.

Hated that.

Also hated the fact that I was the only one left who didn't replace out. No one replaces out as the SK unless something legit comes up, so if I were on the other team I'd have lynched me. XD

So now that I'm in this nightmare scenario, I gamble on seeing if the game can end early. Dark Horse openly confirms that kills are forced so I can't use the no NK as an excuse and J is inactive as a replacement (lawl), Nabe is only mildly active, and Red Ryu is too careful for me to push in that way. So, No Lynch it was. I kill Nabe because screw keeping Nabe around in lylo. J wanted Ryu and Ryu wanted J.

Lylo was then just stalling for time until one of them voted. I straddled the fence like a good townie would while simultaneously saying which way I was leaning, then I just had questions lined up to throw out. Eventually someone would vote. If they didn't, I'd keep asking questions until deadline hit and throw down my vote, but the major plan was to wait and hammer after someone else voted.

If someone had voted early on I had thought about just saying "you shouldn't vote so early. Unvote! What if I was the serial killer?" just to mess with everyone's heads, but the opportunity didn't arise until recently and I was bored of this game by that point.



So how can you FIND a SK in this setup?

Kingmaker. Seriously, it makes the SK's job super hard. He has to gamble. If, for example, we made Soup kingmaker on D1 via vote and everyone <3's soup, he's going to try to lynch the SK, may or may not be successful.

What does SK do? He either has to kill Soup or leave him alive, and if he leaves him alive it means that he has to convince town to lynch him later or have Soup on his side.

So if Soup lives, you know he's either A) the SK , B) not ever going to lynch the SK, or C) being harassed and condemned by the SK every chance possible

Much easier to spot in that fashion. It gets worse as time goes on because town is less likely to kill inactives and troublemakers, but a kingmaker can kill whoever he wants. There's no way to predict both who is going to be King AND who is going to be lynched. You can maybe influence it but it's always obvious when you try to influence a king in a KM setup.

Just doing KM iterations should net you the scum by itself, but on top of all of this just think like an SK.

If you're the SK and you kill someone, you don't want it coming back to you
If you're the SK you have to win in lylo via lynch occurring to someone else

For the first one, look for people that weren't super close to the SK. More likely than not it's true.

For the second, know that the SK is (if he is good) manufacturing a lylo of people he wants around.

This means that the ONLY people left in lylo are going to be people that

A) aren't close to the SK
B) aren't likely to lynch him successfully

If you look at the people left in lylo of J, Nabe, Ryu, and myself, the best Night kill option was pretty apparent from all parties.

J? Kill Ryu or Overswarm.
Ryu? Kill J or Nabe.
Nabe? Kill Overswarm.
Overswarm? Kill Nabe.

There were only two people that could have logically killed nabe and that was myself or Ryu.. That might not sound like much since it'd be me and ryu against each other and J dropping the hammer but it guarantees a 50/50 split.

But yeah, when you're hunting a SK do kingmaker and just ask yourself "who is this lylo acceptable to" and realize that's likely going to be the serial killer.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

Red Fox Warrior
Joined
Jun 15, 2008
Messages
27,486
Location
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
NNID
RedRyu_Smash
3DS FC
0344-9312-3352
Dang what a plan, I love reading these.

I really thought they were random kills but I should have considered more about Kevin or July missing it, though this is due to me thinking Kevin was better with this than before.
 

BSL

B-B-B-BLAMM!!!
Joined
Feb 28, 2010
Messages
6,453
Location
Baton Rouge
NNID
bsl883
3DS FC
3308-4560-2744
OS, when you cleared me based on the fact that I was still reading the game (you said you saw me viewing), were you just bull****ting that? Or did you actually think you saw me? I hadn't viewed the thread since Sunday morning (the day after I replaced out), and that was only because I had the tab left open from Saturday night when I was trying to finish my reread.
 

July

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 1, 2010
Messages
142
Location
Philadelphia, PA
Congratulations OS, you played well and your early decision to tell people how to play the game definitely worked on me, I didn't really suspect you as indy until after I died.

Also congrats to KevinM, you were a good partner despite the competing with me and all lol, but I was amazed by how you managed to fly under the radar so freaking well.

I will forever be proud of this game as the one where I was able to change Kuz's read on me from an (accurate) scumread to a townread :D
 

#HBC | Nabe

Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
Joined
Oct 21, 2010
Messages
3,932
Location
Can't breathe, but the view is equal to the taste
Cool. Well-manoeuvred. Good win.

I suspected OS, but wasn't going to get an OS lynch that Day given that I had no hard evidence and Ryu/J were on each others' backs. So I said I thought J was scum prior to dying, knowing that a Ryu SK would see that and my talk to the SK as an opportunity for an easy LyLo with me alive. I should've said it was more than a lean on J, as that would've made it pretty obvious when I died that Ryu wasn't the SK. As it is, Ryu didn't even come out of the gate fully on J at the start of the Day, which I think should've been good cause to look hard at OS.

Oh well.
 

#HBC | Dark Horse

Mach-Hommy x Murakami
Joined
Jun 12, 2010
Messages
3,739
First off, big thumbs down to Dark Horse. I dislike how he moderated this game. Seriously, replacing two people in lylo is a **** move. The people left alive were left alive on purpose and the entire game changed in one fell swoop. I had to change nearly everything about my play while still sticking to the same strategy and if Nabe hadn't been so inactive I would have lost solely on the fact that two people came in with a fresh face and the only one who WASN'T an immediate replacement was a replacement on a slot whose only major contributions was pre-replacement.
An inconvenience for you versus an autoloss for town. From anyone else's perspective other than yours, I think it's obvious which one is the better choice.

I'm also willing to bet that you wouldn't be complaining about this if you were town.
 
Top Bottom