Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia- Fish

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

Votecount:
Overswarm [0]:
J [0]:
Red Ruy [0]:
Nabe [0]:
No Lynch [1]: RR

Not Voting: OS, J, Nabe

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

 

[Overswarm]

Actually, might be ready to end this toDay.

My bet is on Red Ryu at the moment. I'll have to re-read, but if people want to go for Red Ryu rather than No Lynch toDay I may be down.

He's playing the uber townie at the moment and frankly this caught my eye simply because I'm being stupid lazy and... not doing that. So clean he's dirty kinda thing, but only for toDay.

1) "Come on guys, everyone get a reads list in case someone dies"
2) I have a town lean on OS, but WHO KNOWS? It's so hard to read OS, take the compliment you handsome devil you. Also OS' one and only suspect is the one I also suspect.
3) Was on Gorf's lynch, hammered Badwolf, and was the only one of the remaining players to seem to actively take interest in whatever popular lynch was around.
4) Has stances but they all end with "Who knows, right?"

That's just a cursory glance, I'd need to re-read. Statistically speaking it's better to go one more day but honestly... I don't see BSL being the SK and replacing out, it'd be too fun and I've seen him viewing the thread afterwards so he obviously cares, if he was the SK he'd probably tough it out. That's three players left right there, myself being one of them. Then it's between Kuz and Red Ryu, Kuz replaced by J. Red Ryu says everything I wanted to hear yesterDay.

It could be a townie extravaganza here and we could just be seeing eye-to-eye on everything and getting ready to rock the game together as town bros.... but that's just so rare I can't help but immediately be suspicious of people that seem likeable in lylo, na mean?

On top of that we get a sack of wifom tomorrow. If me and J both say 'yeah, let's get Red Ryu' and NABE dies tomorrow, I'm in paranoid city. Did J kill Nabe so I'd lynch Ryu with him? Did Red Ryu kill Nabe, the only person who didn't want to lynch him, so it appeared "too good to be true", and I'd suspect J?

If Red Ryu immediately votes for J in that scenario, or J for Red Ryu, all it proves to me is that I'm not the SK which I already knew. It proves to them that I'm not the SK too, but they already cast their votes so there's absolutely nothing to lose by doing so. I, personally, learn nothing from someone being killed toNight.

Given that J says "I'm pretty sure Zen (Red Ryu) is the indy" and Red Ryu says he's betting on Kuz (J) SK, I think it's going to come down to me or Nabe anyway.

Anyway, no quick lynch regardless, but given that I already have Nabe eliminated from my lynch pool at the moment (don't worry, I'll read, I'll read, but I just don't see it) I'd possibly be willing to end the day toDay.

J, Nabe, thoughts? Especially Nabe?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Why did you give this game a clean slate for toDay?

 

[Overswarm]

Because I'm alive and I can do basic subtraction.

If you're in a room with a group of people and one of them is gunning for you, it is incredibly unlikely that you would want them around. If you have to pick someone to remove and you can do it cleanly, you remove that one. I've been gunning for kuz since D1, and kuz and I are both here. This may sound egocentric, but I don't leave that up to chance. The easiest way to win for scum is to set it up so lylo has people at each other's throat when NEITHER option is the correct one.

Now it's possible that the SK didn't expect to kill two mafia and bring us to lylo like this and that Kuz IS the SK and was planning on getting my lynched instead of NKilled or just NKilling me later, I'd have to reread interactions with the now-dead mafia to figure out if that is a possibility.

This theory is further supported by Red Ryu coming into the day supporting the one guy I've spoken out against and buddying me.

It's not ironclad enough for me to plop my vote down, but it's enough to where I plan on pursuing it. Just waiting to see your thoughts on No Lynch / playing toDay.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Only reason I might doubt Kuz scum is me rereading when days started and ending and looking for why Soup and July were shot.

 

[Overswarm]

Reaction to my kingmaker idea:

Zen completely ignores Kingmaker. Do not like.

Kuz not liking my kingmaker says it would give scum places to hide. Do not like.

BSL says he likes it because if he has a better chance to win then go for it, but is wishy washy. Do not like this even more, made a post about it on D1.

I'm attempting to pressure BW. I picked him randomly from a list (using a series of coinflips), and I am trying to bait him into thinking I'm serious.

RVS stuff.

This is also a ? in my re-read, but at the same time I use randomizers and whatnot for stuff all the time, I just don't post it like this.



ughhhh all 3 literally gave the only 3 options possible in resopnse

 

[Overswarm]

I'll be honest it is very hard for me to see BSL SK just because of his replacing out. Reading D1 a lot of stuff points to the possibility of BSL being a baddie but I just can't take it seriously.

 

[Overswarm]

Soup's post on BSL. Must take seriously for good of game.

I was gonna tryhard post about BSL but I opted out here is the gist for Kuz.



A weird act of joking around the issue regarding Kuz. I haven't seen BSL do this and if you look at his previous posts, he's just trying to fit in. I could have quoted those posts but the main idea is there in my explanation.



Trying to joke off the explanation to post something that gave him chase in the first place. It's awkward in the first place and looks fake as hell in the second. The meat comes with the end statement which I got to in my spur of posts around BSL. Recite previous statements of BSL having no reads yet claiming to want to shoot BW in this post. This is when BSL completely makes himself obvious. I would probably bus BSL right now if I was actually scum. Something to think about.



Much like how he was joking before, it seems. BSL is uncomfortable. He's made a mess in his pants and he's walking around in shame. That mess would be him crapping himself over one simple in any attempt to make it seem like it had meaning behind it. It didn't.



Trying to claim that his vote is RVS realizing that he is getting flak for his already damnable play. He realizes his mistakes and he's trying to cast suspicion off of him.



Retorting a statement against me trying to defend himself in the process. He only cares for his sorry *** even though he tried really hard to make it seem like he didn't. It's clear as day and yes I am being a bit transparent about it as We've already got all the useful players seeing him for the scum he is.

I actually have something more I want to say regarding this.

 

[Overswarm]

aaand now to the Kuz saga and it's making my hair stand on end

Uhm

Alright so there's two reasons I see for this:
-You don't have an indy read.
-You are indy.

I'm trying to see why you would want to keep a facade with the first. I guess to make indy feel nervous and post more cautiously? I don't know mate.

The second is pretty obvious. Indy would like to get rid of mafia as soon as possible. Revealing your indy read would cause you to have to lynch them, especially since most people want to lynch indy today. Indy will need to have someone around they can pose as indy in the long run. It's best they not reveal it early on, so that player doesn't have more time for rebuttal and so that they aren't lynched before indy is ready for them to be lynched (endgame).

The possibilities of the the second are more consequential then the possible benefits of the first scenario. So I'd much rather you give your indy read pretty much now. I'm sure Overswarm would agree with me.

These two together really make no sense. Your first post clearly indicates that you being around is a necessity for the ease of the lynch, otherwise you wouldn't have included the phrase in the first place "IF I'm around later". You quickly saw what was wrong with that and added tried to amend it, but the amendment doesn't follow a logical thought process. If you're confident town will lynch indy without you, then what reason is there for you keeping your read in the dark at the moment? If indy is very apparent, then there is absolutely no reason for you not to reveal who you believe it to be. If indy is not apparent, then it would be incredibly anti-win condition to not reveal your thoughts on that given that you have the possibility of dying during the night. Unless of course you don't feel there is a possibility of you dying. You dig?

Zen's post is good but at the same time Zen's slot is guilty of doing the same thing he accused Kuz of doing at this moment and happens to be calling the same slot indy.

Still readin.

 

[Overswarm]

lol it aint random gorf is scummy. A scum read for me. A mafia read for Kevin. And an indy read for Kuz.


So vote either Gorf or July. And not having your vote on someone who isn't getting lynched. That's the same thing you did in your first newbie.

Zen's switch to a V/LA wagon is questionable.

 

[Overswarm]

Have not divulged it yet.

Hnnnng


Zen buddying me in defending random BSL accusation D1?


See Kuz look like he's flailing on D1 some when hit with pressure.


Red Ryu replaces at end of D1

 

[Overswarm]

Again why you voting Gorf?

AGAIN, why you voting Gorf?

I'm gonna hammer, not a fan of Gorf either but more I there's tingly I learn about Kuz from this.

Vote: Gorf

* twitch *

 

[Overswarm]

@RR: Zen played an incredibly cautious game where he threw slight suspicions on players and then waited for other players such as Kuz or OS to act on those suspicions before he became engaged in the conversation or actually threw weight behind his accusations.

RR, why do you agree with OS? Explain your read on Kuz please.

This makes things start to add up to Zen scum in a way. Zen's play + Red Ryu comes in, goes against Kuz, July goes against Red Ryu, July dies in the Night. me and Red Ryu both openly stating we're against Kuz. Kuz doesn't kill us? I dunno.




Still reading

 

[Overswarm]

Okay I'm done reading. I think I know the direction I'm going to go toDay or toMorrow. Need to know if we're going for the lynch toDay or toMorrow.

Nabe, J, Red Ryu, let me know ASAP so we can decide to either pursue this toDay or toMorrow.

@mod request votecount

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

What changed your mind on the clean slate i.e. what made you decide to reread (which I guess you first mentioned 802)?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Never mind, I think I put that phrase in your mouth based on "fresh face" which is entirely different.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I'll just come out straight. I don't like your reasoning toDay on BSLtown that he wouldn't replace as SK. BSL made it clear that he couldn't finish out the game, which I'd think he'd do as any faction given that he was talking about a two-week spread. I don't agree that any excitement over being an indy would factor into it if he were.

I'm troubled by your read on BSL prior to replacement, which from my read of you D1 and your reread of D1 seems to be an unsavoury one. ToDay you seem to give my slot a pass on that based on the above, which I'd understand if you were still looking at Kuz, who could've clouded you from reading BSL in D2. But having given up that read, I can't understand the casting aside of my slot from your perspective.

Now, maybe I'm projecting onto you a bit, because in reading BSL, I didn't like his play, and from another town slot I think I'd have pursued him in D1 onwards. Am I missing something in your interactions with my slot that explains why I'm seeing a discrepancy between Days?

 

[Overswarm]

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking. BSL was never my indy read, Kuz was. I didn't get a lynch wagon on Kuz on D1 and on D2 no one was here. BSL was Zen's baby.

You don't have to like my reasoning on BSL town, but that's pretty much what you get. He's not invisible and I've seen him viewing the thread on occasion since. He obviously is still interested in the game, just doesn't have time for it. Given that he actively replaced and still has had some time to view the thread, to me, makes his inactivity seem less like an actual "I'm too busy to even be at a computer let alone play mafia" and more of a conscious decision as to how he is going to spend his time.

He doesn't get a free pass from me, but I will be factoring that into the play of the game. Replacements aren't generally allowed in lylo for this reason, but Dark Horse allowed it so there it is. BSL's D1 play isn't the greatest, but when compared to Kuz and Zen BSL takes a back seat and him replacing out in that fashion is the cherry on top. Kuz I can still see as SK because he literally just disappeared and his play to me still is a possible SK, but BSL? Nah.


And I'm wondering if you've forgotten: you're BSL.

 

[Overswarm]

Either way, do you think we should No Lynch and go for the three or just lynch toDay? I'm going to continue to listen and read as the game goes on, but I can't forsee the lynch being anyone other than Kuz or Zen at this point.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

OS does Kuz's non existent D2 or D3 factor in at all, it does for me and I am considering random kills as a possibility.

 

[Overswarm]

Random kill is possible, but since its random we can't meta it, so the only way you can say "That was a random kill" is if you can say "this person was killed by X because of Y". I don't have enough information on Kuz's non-existence to make a call on it as Kuz didn't say anything, just fell off the face of the map so we have to approach it from the opposite way. Was the kill non-random?

Looking at Soup's kill I don't really know why anyone here would haev killed Soup except for maybe Zen, but Soup wasn't really that big of an issue for Zen so that'd be kind of a red flag. Granted, it'd be you and not Zen doing it and I could see you making a kill that deliberate, but looking at the kills in this game I can't discern the SK from them alone. We have a sample size of two.

 

[Overswarm]

Red Ryu, why didn't you vote for Kuz instead of Badwolf on Day 2? The votecount says you hammered but you actually were 3rd to vote and KevinM hammered (modfail).

If you had voted for Kuz with me both Kuz and Badwolf would have been L-2, why didn't you vote for Kuz?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I wanted him to answer BSL instead of sitting there before the hammer, in turn more people voted and badwolf hammered himself

Not at all what I wanted.

 

[Overswarm]

What specifically did you want him to answer from BSL?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Only reason I might doubt Kuz scum is me rereading when days started and ending and looking for why Soup and July were shot.

Have you done so? Does anything jump out at you?

 

[BSL]

Thanks, Nabe.

 

[Overswarm]

Red Ryu we are still waiting to hear from you.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

He wasn't directly answering how he knew things he did on other players and then made a complete reversal saying he didn't know much on them and they were tough to read.

Instead of answering he posted your tears give me power or something so I voted him.

The self hammer was not what I expected.

For the night kills, I can sort of see July. She more or less came off as a player with a lot of words but on terms of direct content she had little with good intent, though she wasn't high on my list, didn't look at her.

I have zero on why Soup was shot, I can't even find anything that points to him being scum.

Soup shot does look random, I need to check time dates for the night.

July I can see some thought but I'm not sold on that.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Each night the flips and kills went to the night deadline rereading from work.

So I do think it is a possibility.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

OVERSWARM, you post everywhere but here. :<.

Why you no long want J slot dead?

 

[Overswarm]

I could still be convinced, but currently everything points to you being the most likely serial killer. Also I didn't post here because I am still waiting on you answering my query >:[


Who wanted Kuz dead from D1, ALL GAME?

Me.

Who wants Kuz dead in lylo?

Red Ryu!


Why would Kuz leave me alive when both days I wanted a wagon on him and the only reason there wasn't one on Day 2 is because there was no one present?

I hadn't made a big case on Zen or BSL so he'd have to know my inclination was to lynch him. The most logical scenario is that you left me alive to help you kill kuz given how toDay has gone.

Granted it is possible that kuz was planning on attempting to lynch me and using that as a foil, or maybe he just didn't think it was that serious since I didn't put much effort into it. But I refuse to believe he wouldn't at least pick up on it, I have no real reason to suspect BSL/Nabe over Kuz/Zen or J/you, and I know my own alignment so the only unturned shell is you.

I'm still waiting on you to answer my question, by the way.


Despite what I said above, I still need to hear from J.

So Red Ryu why AREN'T you the serial killer, and who is?

@mod request prod on J

 

[#HBC | J]

OS, you know I am busy due to a game that is not going to be mentioned but yeah I am semi-V/LA due to finals and business.

However, while I am here, what do you want to hear from me?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Did I miss it, what was the question then if I didn't answer it?

As for me being the serial killer, well...I got no answer to that without posting my role PM. I mean...I think if Kuz was the serial killer, all his kills were randomized, granted I am metaing the mod here, but asking for 4 hours til deadline and knowing who the scum team was.

Yeah I know you think Kevin is an inactive SoB, but here I don't see it as scum, nor of July they were here and I do believe they would have sent their actions in, Kuz not sending them in is really the only explanation for the NKs, because I don't see sense in anything but a reach on July.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

If it wasn't obvious I think J is the serial killer.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

How does OS' reputation as a player maake you feel, Ryu? That is to say, are you at all dissuaded from looking at OS as a potential suspect?

 

[Overswarm]

OS, you know I am busy due to a game that is not going to be mentioned but yeah I am semi-V/LA due to finals and business.

However, while I am here, what do you want to hear from me?

haha, don't worry I was absent for some time for the same reason

I want to hear your thoughts. Out of me, Red Ryu(Zen), and Nabe(BSL), who do you think is the serial killer?

Do you want to No Lynch toDay, or do you want to end it toDay?

 

[Overswarm]

Did I miss it, what was the question then if I didn't answer it?

As for me being the serial killer, well...I got no answer to that without posting my role PM. I mean...I think if Kuz was the serial killer, all his kills were randomized, granted I am metaing the mod here, but asking for 4 hours til deadline and knowing who the scum team was.

Yeah I know you think Kevin is an inactive SoB, but here I don't see it as scum, nor of July they were here and I do believe they would have sent their actions in, Kuz not sending them in is really the only explanation for the NKs, because I don't see sense in anything but a reach on July.

Actually that makes a little bit of sense, so I can see where you're coming from. Dark Horse posted "4 hours until deadline", which implies a NA wasn't sent.

However:

1) That was on D1. Kuz was inactive mostly D2 if I recall. I'd have to check, but if I'm correct in my recollection this is pretty damning in that regard.

2) KevinM / July both had to send in actions and it could be as simple as one of them forgot or, as you said, KevinM is super inactive all the time. He literally didn't send in a single Night Action in one of my mafia games and he was batman and had like 5 abilities. I can see the post being a reminder for KevMo.


Why don't you consider BSL a suspect? Why not me?

That's bugging me because you look at the night kills and say "Man, these night kills don't add up!" and your conclusion is still the same guy, but the kills were random?

If the kills were random it could have been anyone. They could have themselves chosen randomly.

 

[#HBC | J]

Definitely leaning NL because even though I am confident in my pick for the SK. There is no need to be rash when we have the time to do as such. I mean, I can duke it out in LyLo which is most likely going to be the case, just don't let it be till like next wednesday. I really am probably going to have to go completely off the radar till after my theatre finals, I just can't have mafia be a thought at the moment if I want to maintain my #1 slot in my classes.

I feel Zen is the most likely to flip Indy. Between you and Nabe is a complete 50/50 toss-up so yeah no clue on that note.

 

[Overswarm]

How does OS' reputation as a player maake you feel, Ryu? That is to say, are you at all dissuaded from looking at OS as a potential suspect?

Are you trying to imply I'm a suspect because I have a reputation? -_-;;

 

[Overswarm]

I just realized we can probably determine if the kills were random. Count the deadline time, if the post occurred prior to the deadline ending then the chances of a random kill are 0%.

I'll check later, gotta go to bed. Down for No Lynch only after we get more out of everyone.