Potential Roster/Stage Leak Thread

[Repiteo]

While Smashchu may be wrong about some of the things in his post, I agree with his philosophical message which is that it only takes one logical inconsistency to disprove something. If we prove that one of the images is just from somewhere else the whole leak is disproven. However, because of the day and age we live in, we might not be able get that anymore. Photoshop allows somebody to easily adjust an image so that it can't be recognized on full with its original source. So we should not only accept a definitive, objective disproving.

edit: We should consider if something is close enough to a source to have been photoshopped from it.

I certainly believe that one inconsistency is not enough to disprove a leak, at least a leak that is lain out in this manner. Due to the fact there are several different leakers, some of which are making bold claims (DLC) and some of which are allegedly attempting sabotage (disablad), I don't follow the logic that one inconsistency disproves everything.

That said, I do think the mindset is something to strive for. Remaining skeptical is the ideal way to approach this leak, neither disproving it outright (because nothing has) nor believing it without question (because nothing's confirmed). Close-mindedness is what we need to avoid at all costs, and I'm glad to see that most people are looking at this debacle with a clear head.

...Well, for the most part I suppose.

 

[KawaiiPiranha]

Honestly, the main reason I believe this is because of how well it lines up with that Ninka leak.
The whole "Bowser Jr. fighting from the clown car" thing was pretty dang accurate. Getting Duck Hunt Dog right doesn't hurt either.

 

[Crome]

I'd recommend reading the first two posts (especially the second post) as they go into great detail on lot of the question you have and may have in the future. Though to briefly touch upon these questions: the name likely refers to the video snippit they had in question (ie: the 83rd video), and the DLC claim is heavily assumed to be false.

Was the dlc statement made by the leaker?

 

[Deoxys911]

Wow, no @Con0rrrr, @ vaanrose , or @ Neo Zero in this thread all day? They must be either hard at work trying to figure stuff out or getting extended, well-deserved rests.

 

[Novice_Brave]

They get videos. Nintendo put them in to track the info to see where it would be breached from if let loose.

I'm almost 100% sure this has not been confirmed as a fact, and yet people have been presenting it as one for a while now. Even if this were the case, would a leaker really be careless enough to include the "ESRB0083" name in the screenshot, knowing that it's literally the only way Nintendo can "track" where the leak came from? Which seems fairly unlikely to me anyway. If that was the only precaution they took to track a leak, then it's a terrible one. Just don't take a picture of it. Then the entire "tracking" system falls to pieces. And even if they track the leak to ESRB, what can they do? Interrogate every employee who worked on the game? Call for a massive shutdown of the entire company? Link me to an article or tell me where to find an ESRB employee who can tell me that the reason for the name is "So that nintendo can track the info to see where it would be breached from if let loose" and I'll believe it, but it's such a terrible system and implies a ridiculously careless leaker if true that I find it hard to believe.

I'm not trying to say the leak is real or fake at this point, but I just don't think that this common explanation for the name holds too much water if I'm looking it correctly.

 

[Spazzy_D]

The best explanation for the ESRB0083 thing is that the source is in fact not related to the ESRB at all, and that they used that name to cause confusion and mask the actual source of the leak.

 

[BindingBlade]

The best explanation for the ESRB0083 thing is that the source is in fact not related to the ESRB at all, and that they used that name to cause confusion and mask the actual source of the leak.

Like adding "disablad" for fun and attempting to throw off the leak with releasing Shulk's render beforehand.

 

[nuclearneo577]

The best explanation for the ESRB0083 thing is that the source is in fact not related to the ESRB at all, and that they used that name to cause confusion and mask the actual source of the leak.

That would make sense, although I really have no idea where else this could be from.

 

[Novice_Brave]

The best explanation for the ESRB0083 thing is that the source is in fact not related to the ESRB at all, and that they used that name to cause confusion and mask the actual source of the leak.

I feel this is honestly a way better explanation than Nintendo using it to "track" where leaks come from. A million times better. And it also lends more credibility to the CSS image not showing every roster slot unlocked, as I also don't think the ESRB would get an image of an uncomplete CSS as there's simply no reason for them to have one, but it definitely doesn't look quite complete if previous CSS screen history is any indicator.

EDIT: That's is assuming the leak is real. It could be that a fake leaker thought adding the ESRB thing would lend it more credibility, too.

 

[StarKun]

Wow, no @Con0rrrr, @ vaanrose , or @ Neo Zero in this thread all day? They must be either hard at work trying to figure stuff out or getting extended, well-deserved rests.

well deserved is an understatement when everyone went rabid over this leak.

 

[KawaiiPiranha]

Because SmashBoard will believe any and every leak. During Brawl, there was a lot more reasonable skepticism and if something was debunked, it was dead. No questions asked. Now, you have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that its fake in an age where it is very easy to use photoshop. Heck, even after clear cut evidence that Shulk, Dr. Mario and Wario renders were taken from other sources, people STILL believe it's real. The ONLY thing people have been hanging onto is a Famitsu scan that looks kind of similar to a small blurry box.

The leak is dead.

• It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
• It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
• It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
• The leaker misspelled "disable"
• The laurel is incorrect in one pic
• The pictures are inconsistent
• Ness is inconsistent will ALL of his models and artwork.
• Yoshi splits the Mario cats which is inconsistent from ALL Smash Brothers games
• The lines in the select screen are not properly aligned
• It is FACT that the ESRB does not play games and instead gets videos so the game could not leak from there
• The character backgrounds are different than the E3 Demo and the official 3DS trailer
• There are "KO" when KOs are 0, which is inconsistent with ALL other Smash Brothers games and the E3 Demo
• There are no names under the character's portraits which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and both the 3DS and Wii U demos
• Mr Game and Watch's model is different that what was shown in the Pac-Man trailer.
• CPU characters have colored backgrounds which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and the 3DS and Wii U demos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9ZgS3GT0I&list=PL1ZckmCN92YsMyigw1Py-lIlrbZqxjMNz

-I think you need to look up the words "identical" and "fact"
-Same as above
-It isn't surprising that Wario looks the same in two images from two games in the same series.
-I'm pretty sure those "in-game" pics of Shulk on the menu weren't leaked by the same person
-That isn't true
-That is far too vague to be an actual argument
-Examples?
-It also looks like not all of the characters are unlocked. Every smash game has had a jumbled up roster until EVERYONE is unlocked.
-That is a glitch that has been spotted in several gamepaly videos.
-Just because ESRB doesn't play the games doesn't mean that someone who works there didn't leak the images.
-Plenty of design changes get made throughout development.
-Same as above
-Same as above
-Same as above

I'm not saying the leak is real. I just think you need to keep a more open mind.

 

[vaanrose]

Wow, no @Con0rrrr, @ vaanrose , or @ Neo Zero in this thread all day? They must be either hard at work trying to figure stuff out or getting extended, well-deserved rests.

We're arguing discussing in the other threads.

 

[Joalro]

So I've been away the last few hours. Is there anything I should add to the first post?

 

[BindingBlade]

We're arguing discussing in the other threads.

Other threads? What other threads?

 

[Repiteo]

So I've been away the last few hours. Is there anything I should add to the first post?

I suppose everything in SmashChu's rant that hasn't been addressed would be a good start.

 

[Spazzy_D]

The Tomodatchi life thing is what really gives this leak credibility.

Besides that it's selling point is "pretty renders" which could have easily been done by a team of people in a few weeks.

Other threads? What other threads?

We have an entire invite only group dedicated to leaks on this board.

 

[TheUltraDeino]

I suppose everything in SmashChu's rant that hasn't been addressed would be a good start.

pretty much everything Smashchu ranted on about already is in Joalro's post, with included counterpoints

 

[BindingBlade]

The Tomodatchi life thing is what really gives this leak credibility.

Besides that it's selling point is "pretty renders" which could have easily been done by a team of people in a few weeks.



We have an entire invite only group dedicated to leaks on this board.

I know this, I belong to it. I haven't checked it, I've only been on this thread today.

 

[Spazzy_D]

I know this, I belong to it. I haven't checked it, I've only been on this thread today.

The general leaks thread is still fairly active, not crazy, but discussion is going on.

 

[Repiteo]

pretty much everything Smashchu ranted on about already is in Joalro's post, with included counterpoints

I didn't say it'd take long

 

[Turokman5896]

If this isn't an ESRB video, where did it come from? If it is, why would the leaker leave that info in? And the ESRB0083 being a tab is pure speculation, no evidence whatsoever. Honestly this leak makes very little sense. It also sounds a little like people discovered mistakes and the leaker was covering it up. Misspelling disabled on purpose? Doubtful...

 

[Joalro]

I suppose everything in SmashChu's rant that hasn't been addressed would be a good start.

Everything in SmashChu's rant pretty much as been addressed. I'm inclined to ignore SmashChu. I've argued with him a bunch already, he isn't rational, just articulate.

 

[Deoxys911]

Hmm ok but the two insider leaks differ a little bit right?

A few days ago Neo Zero shared that he had two sources telling him two different things. I forget the exact details now, but it was something like the first did not want to make any definite statements but said that we had more than one trailer, the second said Mach Rider and a few others were in. If I'm mistaken, someone who remembers better please, by all means correct me. I could be off a little.

would a leaker really be careless enough to include the "ESRB0083" name in the screenshot, knowing that it's literally the only way Nintendo can "track" where the leak came from?

Yes, they probably would leave that telltale detail in-tact, because it appears as if this was all meant to stay a secret between friends, but sadly the friend(s) the source entrusted the pictures to betrayed that trust and allowed the pictures to be shared with the public.

 

[SS-bros14]

27th page!? Gosh, don't you guys ever take a break!?
Anyway, what'd I miss?

 

[Deleted member]

27th page!? Gosh, don't you guys ever take a break!?
Anyway, what'd I miss?

we got 100 pages on another thread in 2 days, this isn't surprising

 

[Turokman5896]

27th page!? Gosh, don't you guys ever take a break!?
Anyway, what'd I miss?

More side swapping than a one sided tf2 match.

 

[Neo Zero]

We're arguing discussing in the other threads.

Remember the days I was a user and you were just a humble texture modder

I sure don't

Sorry guys, still nothing I can add at this time, once I have something to really add, I will

 

[ChunkyBeef]

The Tomodatchi life thing is what really gives this leak credibility.

Besides that it's selling point is "pretty renders" which could have easily been done by a team of people in a few weeks.

Here's the thing. It's a bit late for them to be trying to gain attention by releasing this stuff, seeing as the Japanese version releases in three weeks and we'll have full confirmation on everything even sooner than launch day as people get their copies early and leak the stuff out on the internet. It happened for Melee, it happened for Brawl, guaranteed it'll happen with Kerfuffle as well.

So, that begs the question: Why bother? Why now, of all times, release one of the most believable and genuinely credible leaks since the advent of the Gematsu Leak when we're on the cusp of the game releasing, in less than a month, when none of it's going to matter anyway?

There's little chance, in my opinion, that these guys would be so starved for attention that they'd release it now. There's just little point of doing so besides possibly earning the right to say 'We leaked Kerfuffle.' when the next Smash comes around and leaks/speculation start again.

I'm personally skeptical, but if I have to pick, I'll say it's real. Mostly because this is the best case scenario I can possibly see given my initially subterranean expectations for the finished roster.

 

[TheUltraDeino]

27th page!? Gosh, don't you guys ever take a break!?
Anyway, what'd I miss?

To be fair, half of those are just people trying to bring back dead arguments. The old thread was in triple digits before it got locked.

 

[Second Power]

To people believing Sakurai will try to kill the leak to the extent of changing plans and perhaps render poses even; remember how long Gematsu 'survived'.

 

[Aunt Jemima]

What I've collected from this thread is that nobody is at blame other than Adobe, the creators of Photoshop. Nintendo will sue Adobe and get their company shot down and take over all of their programs, with Art Academy replacing Photoshop. Nintendo will start building life-sized, fully functional R.O.B's to take over the world, and then have the Nintendo Ninja's raid everyone's house and replace everything with Mario. They will then start using cloning devices and DNA extracts to create Olimar, Kirby, Samus, Ness, and Fox to go travel to other planets and turn them into new worlds. After several years of living under Nintendo's laws, the world will eventually be taken over by R.O.B's, with all human life becoming extinct. Before the R.O.B's eventually die, they used Nintendo's cloning device to eventually create several characters from the Mario franchise, including Mario, Peach, Rosalina, Toad, Bowser, and Bowser Jr. and many more. The characters are sent off to the new worlds that were created many years ago..

AND THUS, SUPER MARIO GALAXY WAS BORN!

 

[SS-bros14]

we got 100 pages on another thread in 2 days, this isn't surprising

O_o ...

More side swapping than a one sided tf2 match.

Ah, thought so. I'll just jump on the next argument.

 

[Spazzy_D]

Here's the thing. It's a bit late for them to be trying to gain attention by releasing this stuff, seeing as the Japanese version releases in three weeks and we'll have full confirmation on everything even sooner than launch day as people get their copies early and leak the stuff out on the internet. It happened for Melee, it happened for Brawl, guaranteed it'll happen with Kerfuffle as well.

So, that begs the question: Why bother? Why now, of all times, release one of the most believable and genuinely credible leaks since the advent of the Gematsu Leak when we're on the cusp of the game releasing, in less than a month, when none of it's going to matter anyway?

There's little chance, in my opinion, that these guys would be so starved for attention that they'd release it now. There's just little point of doing so besides possibly earning the right to say 'We leaked Kerfuffle.' when the next Smash comes around and leaks/speculation start again.

I'm personally skeptical, but if I have to pick, I'll say it's real. Mostly because this is the best case scenario I can possibly see given my initially subterranean expectations for the finished roster.

I thought you judged the validity of leaks solely on how disappointed you would be in the final roster?

What is this, on a scale of 1-10?

 

[Repiteo]

To people believing Sakurai will try to kill the leak to the extent of changing plans and perhaps render poses even; remember how long Gematsu 'survived'.

To be fair, Gematsu didn't have pictures. It would have been much easier to axe off if there were pictures.

 

[Skyblade12]

Theory: Nintendo themselves leaked this roster onto 4chan. They can make it look however they like. They did this to help forestall and destroy the credibility of any potential actual leaks, as well as to troll those people who are following unofficial sources. The DHD picture was taken from its new Trophy render, which is why it lacks fur (as opposed to Fox and the Kongs), lending itself to a much more Trophy style presentation than what we've gotten for playable characters.

 

[ChunkyBeef]

I thought you judged the validity of leaks solely on how disappointed you would be in the final roster?

What is this, on a scale of 1-10?

Yeah. I'm judging the validity of the leak based on how disappointing it is.

It's disappointing as hell but, considering I was just expecting them to throw the gamut of clones at us in the final round, it's my personal best case scenario. We've got two potentially unique newcomers in addition to the clone gamut. Best case scenario.

It's still disappointing.

 

[Novice_Brave]

I honestly think Gematsu was much more believable than this one is at this point, simply because until Chrom's deconfirmation Gematsu had gotten everything right, a lot of times over, with some fairly obscure characters. Not impossible to guess, but I would say quite difficult at the very least. If Shulk and Chorus Men/Rhythm Heaven Rep end up being in the game as well, I'm going to have to say I believe Gematsu was a true leak, and was simply mistaken about Chrom.

The only hard evidence or backup this leak has so far is the Tomodachi Life stage, which while interesting, isn't quite enough to make it completely without doubt - or, it's also possible only the stage select screen is true. I think it's got a semi-fair chance of being real, but it's also got a good chance of being fake. It's going to be very simple to confirm or deconfirm though, as soon as we get another character who's on that CSS or one of those characters gets confirmed as an alt/assist trophy. I don't think we'll have to wait all the way up until the Japanese release to find out, so we'll know one way or the other pretty soon regardless.

 

[PlTe]

I really hope this is false. But I still hope for IC and Duck Hunt Dog.

 

[Spazzy_D]

Going to repeat what I said elsewhere. There are two things that I think bear stating.

1.) Design choices and roster choices you don't agree with don't make this fake. (Ex. Why Doctor Mario or Why is Yoshi where he is?)

2.) Pretty renders on multiple pictures don't make this real. If this is a fake, it is likely perpetrated by multiple individuals with a background in design and modeling, so the renders could easily be fake.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

I don't know if people are still saying it, but there were some people who were saying things like, "The only people who don't believe this just don't want it to be true," and if they still are, I'm gonna come out and say: I want it to be true, but I don't think it is.

Specifically, I want the leak connected to the Ninka/Vaanrose leak to be true, because it has my three most wanted newcomers on it (Dixie, Ridley, and Mewtwo). However, while there is evidence for it to be real, I find the evidence against it being real too compelling. I'm naturally skeptical of any leak because they can always be fake and they usually are, no matter how convincing they appear to be. This one just has too many problems for me to put stock in it; again, as much as I would actually like it to be true.