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Potential Roster/Stage Leak Thread

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Zacoftheaxes

Smash Cadet
Joined
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Do we have any further information on the Tomadachi Life stage and the picture from Famitsu? That is currently the only reason I have to believe this leak.

where have you been all my life zacoftheglasses
Upstate New York, mostly. (Also how do you know my nickname from old forum buddies?)
 

erico9001

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@ erico9001 erico9001 I would very much like to use your analysis in my post, because you have a good perspective and strong analysis. However, I'm struggling to work out the details of what you are getting at overall in your post. If you could be a bit more blunt in what you are saying, and make a statement about MasterLinkX's claims, I would be very grateful.
Sorry, I was out.

I'm aware that the evidence conflicts with things like what MasterLink said, so my goal when when writing the post was to just have my evidence added to the list of things going against the leak. That would keep my opinion out of it.

However, now I guess for people to take it seriously I need to address how it conflicts with MasterLinkX


I'm going to go through what MasterLinkX claims, but it is really hard to phrase, so I'm going to call the leak that this thread is made to discuss Leak A and the 'leak' that MasterLinkX has supposedly constructed Leak B. MasterLinkX says he was aware of the leak beforehand and was planning to construct Leak B, a photoshop that makes Leak A look fake, from a mixture of various photos constructed together and then mixed, using photoshop, with the original Leak A. MasterLinkX could then claim that Leak A was fabricated from Leak B, as he planned to post Leak B before anyone else posted Leak A, thus making us think that Leak A is false when it supposedly isn't. However, he says that the real leaker unfortunately posted Leak A before masterlink finished with leak B, foiling his plan.

A detail that some of you may not know of is that MasterLinkX posted in the Shulk support thread that he spent 50 hours constructing Leak B.

What is off about this explanation is MasterLinkX's motive. He is a large supporter of Shulk, so it is strange that he would want to deceive everyone, specifically fellow Shulk supporters, into believing that this leak is fake when it isn't (according to him). His motivation would have to be really strong to place 50 hours of work into this, keeping in mind how long 50 hours of work really is.

A motive that makes more sense is that the motive he described was made up in order to help improve the leak's standing.

Let's look at some facts:
-MasterLinkX is skilled with photoshop
-MasterLinkX is a known Brawl Modder, having made several successful Brawl textures. http://forums.kc-mm.com/Gallery/BrawlView.php?ByUserID=1499
-MasterLinkX was also the one to bring those three in-game images to our attention and is the only person I have seen to have claimed to have seen the gamefaqs thread and video they came from.




These aren't from my source, so I cannot personally confirm whether these are real or not.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/69892159
This places MasterLinkX as the most likely person to have done the fabrications I talk about in my analysis.
Alright, I've got some new evidence.

So if the in-game pics are fakes made from a brawl mod then there is no doubt the mod that would have been used is this one


I happen to be the maker of Shulk's mod moveset, so I've spent a large amount of time staring at this model. As you can see, it's over Ike and the move being used here is Ike's up smash. More specifically, it's Shulk's model ripped from Xenoblade and rigged over Ike's skeleton. Shulk has not been rigged over any other character, and the other models of Shulk look exactly the same (literally) except that they use different forms of the Monado.

You can see there is a spec of light on his right (our left) cheek. This is an issue with the lighting on the model, and depending on the angle you look at it it either looks brighter than the rest of the skin or darker than the rest of the skin.

This is key because if this model were to be shown in an up close shot, it could be easily distinguished by this lighting issue. As it happens, the leaker provided a photo where the face is visible to a degree, although, still low quality. Take a look at the left side of the face and if you can see the lighting issue.



Do you see it? It just happens to be right by the nose on the left side of the face, right by where the mod has its issue.

Although, the pose is something I've never seen before, but it's something I could create using brawl box. Anyone that creates brawl mods could do that by just moving the bones around in brawl box. This isn't absurd either, since the leaker would have had to mod the game to create the other photos. RED TEAM and the background would be done with photoshop, which is not out of the question since the person would need to be good at photoshop to do the leaks posted through 4chan.

Well, enough of that for now. Now, let's look at the Shulk in the game.

The first thing that comes to mind with this is Ike's jab attack. Here's this recreated in the game (I tried to get the angle right but it's not perfect):

They really do look similar. The body is angled in the same way (accounting for how the leaked photo is tilted) and the punch looks the same. There are some differences, however. The right arm is in a different position and in the one photo the Monado is on Shulk's back. However, this change is something even an amateur to photoshop like me could do, especially with the blank, snowy background behind Shulk in the leak photo. The other things I notice are in the leak, the shorts on the right leg look a lot baggier than they do in the brawl mod. The left foot is also in a different angle.

Disclaimer: I'm not claiming that the character (Dunban rigged over Link) is what the leaker used for Lucina. He's just there because I needed a second character to join the game.

The other thing that comes to mind as a potential move being used is Ike's grab. Here is this recreated with the mod:



This image also gives a better view of the snowy background, which has its own differences from the leak. I'm not going to discuss that in detail.

The arm doesn't look as good here, but the legs do. The right leg's shorts looks baggier like with the leak and the left leg is at a more similar angle. The arm/Monado could still be edited with photoshop.

Neither of them look exactly like how the leak does, but it is possible for them to be combined with photoshop.

I would like to close off by saying I'm not biased either way in this, and all I care about is the truth. As you can see by my avatar, Shulk's my number one wanted newcomer, so I would be more inclined to be biased for him than against him anyways.
He has the brawl modding experience to replace Ike's model in-game so that he can take a picture of it, as well as the capability to use Brawl Box to move the bones around and make that superman pose. He has the photoshop experience to then make the described changes such as the Monado on Shulk's back (while in-game), the 'RED TEAM' text, the CSS on the bottom screen, and the red background behind Shulk. Finally, he is the one who linked us to these pics and the thread on gamefaqs, a thread which cannot be viewed.

What do you guys think about this? It doesn't feel right to be accusing another Smashboards user and Shulk supporter, but for the sake of truth I'm willing to look passed that.
 

SmashChu

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didn't we already like debunk this why are we still arguing if its real >.> im so sick of "leaks"
Because SmashBoard will believe any and every leak. During Brawl, there was a lot more reasonable skepticism and if something was debunked, it was dead. No questions asked. Now, you have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that its fake in an age where it is very easy to use photoshop. Heck, even after clear cut evidence that Shulk, Dr. Mario and Wario renders were taken from other sources, people STILL believe it's real. The ONLY thing people have been hanging onto is a Famitsu scan that looks kind of similar to a small blurry box.

The leak is dead.
  • It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
  • It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
  • It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
  • The leaker misspelled "disable"
  • The laurel is incorrect in one pic
  • The pictures are inconsistent
  • Ness is inconsistent will ALL of his models and artwork.
  • Yoshi splits the Mario cats which is inconsistent from ALL Smash Brothers games
  • The lines in the select screen are not properly aligned
  • It is FACT that the ESRB does not play games and instead gets videos so the game could not leak from there
  • The character backgrounds are different than the E3 Demo and the official 3DS trailer
  • There are "KO" when KOs are 0, which is inconsistent with ALL other Smash Brothers games and the E3 Demo
  • There are no names under the character's portraits which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and both the 3DS and Wii U demos
  • Mr Game and Watch's model is different that what was shown in the Pac-Man trailer.
  • CPU characters have colored backgrounds which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and the 3DS and Wii U demos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9ZgS3GT0I&list=PL1ZckmCN92YsMyigw1Py-lIlrbZqxjMNz
 
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BindingBlade

Smash Lord
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Messages
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Because SmashBoard will believe any and every leak. During Brawl, there was a lot more reasonable skepticism and if something was debunked, it was dead. No questions asked. Now, you have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that its fake in an age where it is very easy to use photoshop. Heck, even after clear cut evidence that Shulk, Dr. Mario and Wario renders were taken from other sources, people STILL believe it's real. The ONLY thing people have been hanging onto is a Famitsu scan that looks kind of similar to a small blurry box.

The leak is dead.
  • It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
  • It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
  • It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
  • The leaker misspelled "disable"
  • The laurel is incorrect in one pic
  • The pictures are inconsistent
  • Ness is inconsistent will ALL of his models and artwork.
  • Yoshi splits the Mario cats which is inconsistent from ALL Smash Brothers games
  • The lines in the select screen are not properly aligned
  • It is FACT that the ESRB does not play games and instead gets videos so the game could not leak from there
  • The character backgrounds are different than the E3 Demo and the official 3DS trailer
  • There are "KO" when KOs are 0, which is inconsistent with ALL other Smash Brothers games and the E3 Demo
  • There are no names under the character's portraits which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and both the 3DS and Wii U demos
  • Mr Game and Watch's model is different that what was shown in the Pac-Man trailer.
  • CPU characters have colored backgrounds which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and the 3DS and Wii U demos.
Um...what? We discussed much of this in the previous thread.
 

SmasherP83

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Wait what does the Mr.Game and Watch model have to do with anything? He'll always look as he did from Melee and Brawl and whatever.
 

StarKun

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I do wonder what was with that "ESRB0083" thing too, honestly. But we have nothing about it to confirm the leak fake.

I thought I really wanted to see a huge new leak with legit-looking images...but this became a headache real quick.
 

TheUltraDeino

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Um...what? We discussed much of this in the previous thread.
It's just a case of people still not reading the post under the OP. Just ignore them, if they can't scroll down a tiny bit, then they shouldn't just wander into this discussion blindly.
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Because SmashBoard will believe any and every leak. During Brawl, there was a lot more reasonable skepticism and if something was debunked, it was dead. No questions asked. Now, you have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that its fake in an age where it is very easy to use photoshop. Heck, even after clear cut evidence that Shulk, Dr. Mario and Wario renders were taken from other sources, people STILL believe it's real. The ONLY thing people have been hanging onto is a Famitsu scan that looks kind of similar to a small blurry box.

The leak is dead.
  • It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
  • It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
  • It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
  • The leaker misspelled "disable"
  • The laurel is incorrect in one pic
  • The pictures are inconsistent
  • Ness is inconsistent will ALL of his models and artwork.
  • Yoshi splits the Mario cats which is inconsistent from ALL Smash Brothers games
  • The lines in the select screen are not properly aligned
  • It is FACT that the ESRB does not play games and instead gets videos so the game could not leak from there
  • The character backgrounds are different than the E3 Demo and the official 3DS trailer
  • There are "KO" when KOs are 0, which is inconsistent with ALL other Smash Brothers games and the E3 Demo
  • There are no names under the character's portraits which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and both the 3DS and Wii U demos
  • Mr Game and Watch's model is different that what was shown in the Pac-Man trailer.
  • CPU characters have colored backgrounds which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and the 3DS and Wii U demos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9ZgS3GT0I&list=PL1ZckmCN92YsMyigw1Py-lIlrbZqxjMNz
please look at the second post in the thread
 

Turokman5896

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Sorry, I was out.

I'm aware that the evidence conflicts with things like what MasterLink said, so my goal when when writing the post was to just have my evidence added to the list of things going against the leak. That would keep my opinion out of it.

However, now I guess for people to take it seriously I need to address how it conflicts with MasterLinkX


I'm going to go through what MasterLinkX claims, but it is really hard to phrase, so I'm going to call the leak that this thread is made to discuss Leak A and the 'leak' that MasterLinkX has supposedly constructed Leak B. MasterLinkX says he was aware of the leak beforehand and was planning to construct Leak B, a photoshop that makes Leak A look fake, from a mixture of various photos constructed together and then mixed, using photoshop, with the original Leak A. MasterLinkX could then claim that Leak A was fabricated from Leak B, as he planned to post Leak B before anyone else posted Leak A, thus making us think that Leak A is false when it supposedly isn't. However, he says that the real leaker unfortunately posted Leak A before masterlink finished with leak B, foiling his plan.

A detail that some of you may not know of is that MasterLinkX posted in the Shulk support thread that he spent 50 hours constructing Leak B.

What is off about this explanation is MasterLinkX's motive. He is a large supporter of Shulk, so it is strange that he would want to deceive everyone, specifically fellow Shulk supporters, into believing that this leak is fake when it isn't (according to him). His motivation would have to be really strong to place 50 hours of work into this, keeping in mind how long 50 hours of work really is.

A motive that makes more sense is that the motive he described was made up in order to help improve the leak's standing.

Let's look at some facts:
-MasterLinkX is skilled with photoshop
-MasterLinkX is a known Brawl Modder, having made several successful Brawl textures. http://forums.kc-mm.com/Gallery/BrawlView.php?ByUserID=1499
-MasterLinkX was also the one to bring those three in-game images to our attention and is the only person I have seen to have claimed to have seen the gamefaqs thread and video they came from.
This places MasterLinkX as the most likely person to have done the fabrications I talk about in my analysis.

He has the brawl modding experience to replace Ike's model in-game so that he can take a picture of it, as well as the capability to use Brawl Box to move the bones around and make that superman pose. He has the photoshop experience to then make the described changes such as the Monado on Shulk's back (while in-game), the 'RED TEAM' text, the CSS on the bottom screen, and the red background behind Shulk. Finally, he is the one who linked us to these pics and the thread on gamefaqs, a thread which cannot be viewed.

What do you guys think about this? It doesn't feel right to be accusing another Smashboards user and Shulk supporter, but for the sake of truth I'm willing to look passed that.
Wow that is some pretty impressive stuff. Nothing conclusive, but certainly doubt-inducing.
 

erico9001

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My posts always end up on the bottom of pages =[

Because SmashBoard will believe any and every leak. During Brawl, there was a lot more reasonable skepticism and if something was debunked, it was dead. No questions asked. Now, you have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that its fake in an age where it is very easy to use photoshop. Heck, even after clear cut evidence that Shulk, Dr. Mario and Wario renders were taken from other sources, people STILL believe it's real. The ONLY thing people have been hanging onto is a Famitsu scan that looks kind of similar to a small blurry box.

The leak is dead.
  • It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
  • It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
  • It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
  • The leaker misspelled "disable"
  • The laurel is incorrect in one pic
  • The pictures are inconsistent
  • Ness is inconsistent will ALL of his models and artwork.
  • Yoshi splits the Mario cats which is inconsistent from ALL Smash Brothers games
  • The lines in the select screen are not properly aligned
  • It is FACT that the ESRB does not play games and instead gets videos so the game could not leak from there
  • The character backgrounds are different than the E3 Demo and the official 3DS trailer
  • There are "KO" when KOs are 0, which is inconsistent with ALL other Smash Brothers games and the E3 Demo
  • There are no names under the character's portraits which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and both the 3DS and Wii U demos
  • Mr Game and Watch's model is different that what was shown in the Pac-Man trailer.
  • CPU characters have colored backgrounds which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and the 3DS and Wii U demos.
yeah, looking at all of this after all of that I just wrote makes it seem dead to me. If it is dead, MasterLinkX has to be in on it then, based on what he has said about seeing it and then being the one to give us those images. His role is probably what I describe it as on the previous page then
 

YT123

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  • It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
  • It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
  • It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
Those points are NOT facts. The renders look similar but are not identical at all, check the pictures again.
 
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Repiteo

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Are people now just ignoring Famitsu's room and the Dark Pit tease?
It feels like people are swinging between Team Real and Team Fake like whiplash whenever someone writes an articulate post supporting either side.
 

SmasherP83

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Are people now just ignoring Famitsu's room and the Dark Pit tease?
Well I I don't know if Dark Pit is an alt costume becuase in the pic of the day where Sakurai explains about Robins Nosferatu he's using it on Pit in a Dark colored costume but I know for a fact it wasn't Dark Pit becuase Dark Pit doesn't use a Palutena Bow. That's all for me.
 

Crome

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I really don't see how the leak could've lived this long. On the esrb website it specifically states that they do not get a copy of the game to play, contradicting the leaker. Source - http://www.esrb.org/ratings/faq.jsp#17
So let's say these were pics Nintendo sent to him, in case he back tracks, then why did he have to fake an esrb name into one of the photos?
Well I I don't know if Dark Pit is an alt costume becuase in the pic of the day where Sakurai explains about Robins Nosferatu he's using it on Pit in a Dark colored costume but I know for a fact it wasn't Dark Pit becuase Dark Pit doesn't use a Palutena Bow. That's all for me.
It was a blue pit surrounded by the attack. It confused me too.
 
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BindingBlade

Smash Lord
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Messages
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I really don't see how the leak could've lived this long. On the esrb website it specifically states that they do not get a copy of the game to play, contradicting the leaker. Source - http://www.esrb.org/ratings/faq.jsp#17
So let's say these were pics Nintendo sent to him, in case he back tracks, then why did he have to fake an esrb name into one of the photos?

It was a blue pit surrounded by the attack. It confused me too.
They get videos. Nintendo put them in to track the info to see where it would be breached from if let loose.
 

SmasherP83

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I really don't see how the leak could've lived this long. On the esrb website it specifically states that they do not get a copy of the game to play, contradicting the leaker. Source - http://www.esrb.org/ratings/faq.jsp#17
So let's say these were pics Nintendo sent to him, in case he back tracks, then why did he have to fake an esrb name into one of the photos?

It was a blue pit surrounded by the attack. It confused me too.
jhmm I'm sure it was black...Let me check again.
 

strawhatninja

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I saw some of the mods supporting this leak(which really gets my attention). How does this leak compare to the other popular Smashboards leak? If I remember right that one included Mewtwo and Ridley.
 

Crome

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They get videos. Nintendo put them in to track the info to see where it would be breached from if let loose.
They do get videos, yes. But what about the name? And the leaker did not say "Nintendo sent me domes videos" he said he had played the game. He also made mention of dlc when sakurai said that dlc will be an after thought.
When are we ever getting a translation of that anyways?
It was on reddit earlier, I can't find it again, but it said something like "He'll do anything to get in a smash game!" Which I think furthers the stage boss theory.
 
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StarKun

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I saw some of the mods supporting this leak(which really gets my attention). How does this leak compare to the other popular Smashboards leak? If I remember right that one included Mewtwo and Ridley.
The mods apparently have inside info on things.
 

BindingBlade

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They do get videos, yes. But what about the name? And the leaker did not say "Nintendo sent me domes videos" he said he had played the game. He also made mention of dlc when sakurai said that dlc will be an after thought.
And that leaker, from another leaker and the mods was said to be lying about the DLC.
 

Repiteo

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They do get videos, yes. But what about the name? And the leaker did not say "Nintendo sent me domes videos" he said he had played the game. He also made mention of dlc when sakurai said that dlc will be an after thought.
I'd recommend reading the first two posts (especially the second post) as they go into great detail on lot of the question you have and may have in the future. Though to briefly touch upon these questions: the name likely refers to the video snippit they had in question (ie: the 83rd video), and the DLC claim is heavily assumed to be false.
 

erico9001

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Those points are NOT facts. The renders look similar but are not identical at all, check the pictures again.
While Smashchu may be wrong about some of the things in his post, I agree with his philosophical message which is that it only takes one logical inconsistency to disprove something. If we prove that one of the images is just from somewhere else the whole leak is disproven. However, because of the day and age we live in, we might not be able get that anymore. Photoshop allows somebody to easily adjust an image so that it can't be recognized on full with its original source. So we should not only accept a definitive, objective disproving.

edit: We should consider if something is close enough to a source to have been photoshopped from it.
 
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Spazzy_D

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Because SmashBoard will believe any and every leak. During Brawl, there was a lot more reasonable skepticism and if something was debunked, it was dead. No questions asked. Now, you have to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that its fake in an age where it is very easy to use photoshop. Heck, even after clear cut evidence that Shulk, Dr. Mario and Wario renders were taken from other sources, people STILL believe it's real. The ONLY thing people have been hanging onto is a Famitsu scan that looks kind of similar to a small blurry box.

The leak is dead.
  • It is FACT that Shulk's render is identical to Little Mac
  • It is FACT that Dr. Mario's render is identical to an official Nintendo render of Mario
  • It is FACT that Wario is based on screenshots from the Subspace Emissary
  • The leaker misspelled "disable"
  • The laurel is incorrect in one pic
  • The pictures are inconsistent
  • Ness is inconsistent will ALL of his models and artwork.
  • Yoshi splits the Mario cats which is inconsistent from ALL Smash Brothers games
  • The lines in the select screen are not properly aligned
  • It is FACT that the ESRB does not play games and instead gets videos so the game could not leak from there
  • The character backgrounds are different than the E3 Demo and the official 3DS trailer
  • There are "KO" when KOs are 0, which is inconsistent with ALL other Smash Brothers games and the E3 Demo
  • There are no names under the character's portraits which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and both the 3DS and Wii U demos
  • Mr Game and Watch's model is different that what was shown in the Pac-Man trailer.
  • CPU characters have colored backgrounds which is inconsistent with ALL Smash Brothers games and the 3DS and Wii U demos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9ZgS3GT0I&list=PL1ZckmCN92YsMyigw1Py-lIlrbZqxjMNz
Most of those facts aren't facts at all, but conjecture based off of false assumptions. The Mario and Wario renders in particular have no basis in reality.
 
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