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Potential Roster/Stage Leak Thread

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FiXalaS

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Yeah I agree with what Envy is saying, a mod saying it doesn't make it any more legit or not.

The source and what they have to back it up is what matters the most.
Sorry for thinking like this, but at this point, I think all of this is a set-up...

The leak's timing is so perfect, just after showing MetaKnight, and the only way to confirm or disconfirm this leak is when a veteran or a newcomer is revealed (and see if art/pose matches)
 

shrooby

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I find it silly that moderators' statements somehow have more validity than anyone else's. Like if they say it's real then it's real? That's just stupid.
Is it really that silly though?
I trust their intellects, sure, just based on my somewhat long experience on this site, but, more importantly, I trust their ability to realize that they actually have a reputation to keep.
Random User A who joined a month ago has less reason to not spread obviously false information than, say, BKuppa, who actually has a reputation to keep intact as a well respected member of this community. A reputation which would be heavily damaged if he started putting stock in info he knew to be faulty.
I have more personal trust in a few of the moderators in particular just from experience on this site, I'll admit, but that really isn't the crux of my trust in their judgements.
 

Bunny8093

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Yeah I agree with what Envy is saying, a mod saying it doesn't make it any more legit or not.

The source and what they have to back it up is what matters the most.
Never said it was really being a mod that makes you more believable but you guys have connections better than any of us do. And if I was in a situation where I had to choose a Mod who says this, or a Rookie who says that... I'd go with the mod. Are you saying you all are just like us and don't actually have any sources? If that is the case then... :rolleyes:
 

Fire Emblemier

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Have you seen the MasterLinkX information? He has put fake Shulk images over the real ones. Have you factored this into your information?
It could be him just covering any inconsistencies so it will be believed for longer, he is the leaker after all. I'm just saying don't believe everything told 100%
 

erico9001

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What if he's throwing an item? the dragoon piece is visible, so what if he threw the fire flower. (Or the flame is coming off of Charizards tail.)
Hmm interesting idea.

This is just me but the Leaked Pics look different enough from the Brawl Mods that I don't think they used a Brawl Mod to Make these Photo's :p
The images are just really low quality so it's hard to tell one way or the other.
 

Luigi#1

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Sorry for thinking like this, but at this point, I think all of this is a set-up...

The leak's timing is so perfect, just after showing MetaKnight, and the only way to confirm or disconfirm this leak is when a veteran or a newcomer is revealed (and see if art/pose matches)
How would the leaker know when a character reveal occurred? He could have just as easily revealed it earlier not knowing he's be revealed soon if this leak was fake.
 

SonicMario

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Personally, I don't really believe this yet. The fact it originated from 4chan already gives me one of the biggest grains of salts. But there's also the rather cocky asshole way that they present the images. Like one of them calling themselves the "MOTHER****ING LEAKER", this just really reaks of trollish behavior.

The roster is also very questionable, but I'm sure that's been discussed to death already.
 

Aunt Jemima

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I'm a bit confused why some people think that having Brinstar on the leak automatically goes towards the credibility of the leak. I honestly think it goes against it because it could have just been put in there similar to Corneria, and the fact that the leak was shown a day after the reveal of Brinstar could possibly mean the leaker just put it in there to replace something else.

As Shulk is being speculated to be a Brawl modification, Lucina is most definitely a brawl modification is Shulk seems to be:

http://legendarysmashteam.blogspot.com/2014/01/lsteam-presents-i-challenge-my-fate-do.html

The Lucina model that is made for Brawl is made by LST, which is one of, if not THE BEST Brawl costume team. They've made a handful of Project M's alt costumes, if I am correct, along with models for Rosalina, Mia, and an Other M: ZSS similar to SSB4's. Anybody could easily download their costumes and show it in a blurry, low-resolution picture and say it's in the game.
 
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Joalro

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It could be him just covering any inconsistencies so it will be believed for longer, he is the leaker after all. I'm just saying don't believe everything told 100%
- He is ONE of the leakers, with the leak which was already the weak link
- I don't believe everything he is saying, I have no reason to, but I also have no reason not to
- I'm simply asking if his analysis matches what MasterLinkX told us.

My goal is to use the available information and resources we have to best determine the validity of the leaks. In order to do that, I must entertain the idea someone might be telling the truth.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Never said it was really being a mod that makes you more believable but you guys have connections better than any of us do. And if I was in a situation where I had to choose a Mod who says this, or a Rookie who says that... I'd go with the mod. Are you saying you all are just like us and don't actually have any sources? If that is the case then... :rolleyes:
If they got more connections, it's the individual.

Being a mod doesn't make it more likely.

I'm an Smod and I still got no clue what is real or fake.

#teamwaittilthegameisout
 

TheFearsomeRyan

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Alright, I've got some new evidence.

So if the in-game pics are fakes made from a brawl mod then there is no doubt the mod that would have been used is this one


I happen to be the maker of Shulk's mod moveset, so I've spent a large amount of time staring at this model. As you can see, it's over Ike and the move being used here is Ike's up smash. More specifically, it's Shulk's model ripped from Xenoblade and rigged over Ike's skeleton. Shulk has not been rigged over any other character, and the other models of Shulk look exactly the same (literally) except that they use different forms of the Monado.

You can see there is a spec of light on his right (our left) cheek. This is an issue with the lighting on the model, and depending on the angle you look at it it either looks brighter than the rest of the skin or darker than the rest of the skin.

This is key because if this model were to be shown in an up close shot, it could be easily distinguished by this lighting issue. As it happens, the leaker provided a photo where the face is visible to a degree, although, still low quality. Take a look at the left side of the face and if you can see the lighting issue.



Do you see it? It just happens to be right by the nose on the left side of the face, right by where the mod has its issue.

Although, the pose is something I've never seen before, but it's something I could create using brawl box. Anyone that creates brawl mods could do that by just moving the bones around in brawl box. This isn't absurd either, since the leaker would have had to mod the game to create the other photos. RED TEAM and the background would be done with photoshop, which is not out of the question since the person would need to be good at photoshop to do the leaks posted through 4chan.

Well, enough of that for now. Now, let's look at the Shulk in the game.

The first thing that comes to mind with this is Ike's jab attack. Here's this recreated in the game (I tried to get the angle right but it's not perfect):

They really do look similar. The body is angled in the same way (accounting for how the leaked photo is tilted) and the punch looks the same. There are some differences, however. The right arm is in a different position and in the one photo the Monado is on Shulk's back. However, this change is something even an amateur to photoshop like me could do, especially with the blank, snowy background behind Shulk in the leak photo. The other things I notice are in the leak, the shorts on the right leg look a lot baggier than they do in the brawl mod. The left foot is also in a different angle.

Disclaimer: I'm not claiming that the character (Dunban rigged over Link) is what the leaker used for Lucina. He's just there because I needed a second character to join the game.

The other thing that comes to mind as a potential move being used is Ike's grab. Here is this recreated with the mod:



This image also gives a better view of the snowy background, which has its own differences from the leak. I'm not going to discuss that in detail.

The arm doesn't look as good here, but the legs do. The right leg's shorts looks baggier like with the leak and the left leg is at a more similar angle. The arm/Monado could still be edited with photoshop.

Neither of them look exactly like how the leak does, but it is possible for them to be combined with photoshop.

I would like to close off by saying I'm not biased either way in this, and all I care about is the truth. As you can see by my avatar, Shulk's my number one wanted newcomer, so I would be more inclined to be biased for him than against him anyways.
Yeah honestly I doubt these are actual leaks. The only interesting thing out of this is the Ganondorf render which masterlink or whatever easily showed us is possible to make using, except he did it with Shulk. The in game pics I have no doubt are fake, idk about the other leaks though.
 

UnleashedGamer

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Here are some reasons why I think this leak is fake:
http://i.imgur.com/LSpdAVr.gif

http://aceattorney.sparklin.org/jeu.php?id_proces=65562

http://i.imgur.com/aoYlUTC.png

Doctor Mario’s Model source: http://th01.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/f/2013/037/c/6/dr_mario_model_rip_by_luigimariogmod-d5u3cp2.png

http://i.imgur.com/7epqFJU.jpg
It shows levels in the duck hunt, Diddy, and ness picture even though they're colored as if controlled by human players. In the bowser jr. Picture it shows levels of other players but grayed out to signify that they're CPU controlled.

https://31.media.tumblr.com/a59f58b511914082de3c0931d570f0c0/tumblr_nakwn41M2z1qiz4ulo1_500.png
There is no symbols behind the characters.

And why should a ESRB rater know about future DLC and it makes it even less convincing when his name is "MOTHER****ING LEAKER"
 

erico9001

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Hmm interesting idea.


The images are just really low quality so it's hard to tell one way or the other.
Unfortunately I have to go but there's real potential in what greyback said about if it's an item being thrown. I'll have to compare them later though.
 

Joalro

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Yeah, he's why I know these photoshops are possible
Could you clarify? I'm honestly a little tired, so my brain isn't working 100%.

So are you saying that it appears MasterLinkX used the brawl mod to help make the image look fake, or is this countering what he said?
 

anon1776

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Personally, I don't really believe this yet. The fact it originated from 4chan already gives me one of the biggest grains of salts. But there's also the rather cocky ******* way that they present the images. Like one of them calling themselves the "MOTHER****ING LEAKER", this just really reaks of trollish behavior.

The roster is also very questionable, but I'm sure that's been discussed to death already.
i see you've never been on 4chan before
 

PurpleSpaceDragon

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That came from Neo Zero. I had thought Neo Zero had that because of that link, but I'm not sure now. There's a lot to keep on top of, even for me.

If anyone can help me sort this out, that would be greatly appreciated.
Here's more to add to the puzzle:

There's also this quote posted on the Ninka thread, which is sourced from a thread on deniableplausibility that's no longer reachable:



Is the person who wrote the above the same person who originally leaked the "Additional Characters" on 4chan?
 

Fire Emblemier

The Crests are to Blame
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Here are some reasons why I think this leak is fake:
http://i.imgur.com/LSpdAVr.gif

http://aceattorney.sparklin.org/jeu.php?id_proces=65562

http://i.imgur.com/aoYlUTC.png

Doctor Mario’s Model source: http://th01.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/f/2013/037/c/6/dr_mario_model_rip_by_luigimariogmod-d5u3cp2.png

http://i.imgur.com/7epqFJU.jpg
It shows levels in the duck hunt, Diddy, and ness picture even though they're colored as if controlled by human players. In the bowser jr. Picture it shows levels of other players but grayed out to signify that they're CPU controlled.

https://31.media.tumblr.com/a59f58b511914082de3c0931d570f0c0/tumblr_nakwn41M2z1qiz4ulo1_500.png
There is no symbols behind the characters.

And why should a ESRB rater know about future DLC and it makes it even less convincing when his name is "MOTHER****ING LEAKER"
Most of these have been addressed a ton of times refer to the 2nd post of the thread, to read every argument and counter argument to the leak
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Could you clarify? I'm honestly a little tired, so my brain isn't working 100%.

So are you saying that it appears MasterLinkX used the brawl mod to help make the image look fake, or is this countering what he said?
Some people dropped the idea that he used a Shulk skin for Ike as a cover up to make his leak more legitimate when he edited the picture.
 

Joalro

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Here are some reasons why I think this leak is fake:
http://i.imgur.com/LSpdAVr.gif

http://aceattorney.sparklin.org/jeu.php?id_proces=65562

http://i.imgur.com/aoYlUTC.png

Doctor Mario’s Model source: http://th01.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/f/2013/037/c/6/dr_mario_model_rip_by_luigimariogmod-d5u3cp2.png

http://i.imgur.com/7epqFJU.jpg
It shows levels in the duck hunt, Diddy, and ness picture even though they're colored as if controlled by human players. In the bowser jr. Picture it shows levels of other players but grayed out to signify that they're CPU controlled.

https://31.media.tumblr.com/a59f58b511914082de3c0931d570f0c0/tumblr_nakwn41M2z1qiz4ulo1_500.png
There is no symbols behind the characters.

And why should a ESRB rater know about future DLC and it makes it even less convincing when his name is "MOTHER****ING LEAKER"
You sir have single handedly made me metaphorically cry.

Please. For the love of god. Read My Initial Post.
 

Repiteo

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Never said it was really being a mod that makes you more believable but you guys have connections better than any of us do. And if I was in a situation where I had to choose a Mod who says this, or a Rookie who says that... I'd go with the mod. Are you saying you all are just like us and don't actually have any sources? If that is the case then... :rolleyes:
To be fair, this is kinda a strawman argument. There's a big difference between a veteran of the forums who has a reputation to speak of that happens to not be a mod, and someone who popped in out of nowhere spurting wild claims.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Yeah honestly I doubt these are actual leaks. The only interesting thing out of this is the Ganondorf render which masterlink or whatever easily showed us is possible to make using, except he did it with Shulk. The in game pics I have no doubt are fake, idk about the other leaks though.
Masterlinkx edited over the actual Shulk leak though. He didn't make his own from scratch. He was planning on making the real leak look fake to keep this whole leak from spreading.
 

Bunny8093

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I'm a bit confused why some people think that having Brinstar on the leak automatically goes towards the credibility of the leak. I honestly think it goes against it because it could have just been put in there similar to Corneria, and the fact that the leak was shown a day after the reveal of Brinstar could possibly mean the leaker just put it in there to replace something else.
If it is real why would it go against it? A real pic will show a real stage that's in the real game which it obviously is in there. It's also not out of place where it's at in the picture if that means anything, throwing something in at last second like that can be a bit tricky.

That's just my two sense... Also is Brinstar at the exact same angle that it was displayed as in the other games? Not like it matters too much but looking into it might help some.
 
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PK_Wonder

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I'm about 70/30 on this, leaning toward believing it isn't some crazy conspiracy.

There are clearly multiple leakers involved, each offering multiple pieces of the puzzle to various sources, some behind the scenes, some intentionally wrong either for a greater good, or to be devious.

What a THICK plot this is.
 

Bunny8093

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To be fair, this is kinda a strawman argument. There's a big difference between a veteran of the forums who has a reputation to speak of that happens to not be a mod, and someone who popped in out of nowhere spurting wild claims.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say? I support the mods sayings over most newbies. I wasn't arguing anything. Are you even reading what I'm saying? xD


If they got more connections, it's the individual.

Being a mod doesn't make it more likely.

I'm an Smod and I still got no clue what is real or fake.

#teamwaittilthegameisout
Like I said though making claims like that while being a mod of a site have a bigger toll than a newbie making them, you sort of have a reputation. The way you're wording this makes me think we shouldn't even bother trusting you all. And you may not have the info, sure I never though ALL of you mods did, but some are claiming they do and that's a fact.

Before all this, I never thought a mod on this site could ever get inside info but apparently from the claims they can... That's all I'm saying.
 
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Joalro

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Some people dropped the idea that he used a Shulk skin for Ike as a cover up to make his leak more legitimate when he edited the picture.
Yes, but I'm asking if erico9001's evidence comments on that. That's what i'm trying to work out.
 
T

Trick or Treat

Guest
Never said it was really being a mod that makes you more believable but you guys have connections better than any of us do. And if I was in a situation where I had to choose a Mod who says this, or a Rookie who says that... I'd go with the mod. Are you saying you all are just like us and don't actually have any sources? If that is the case then... :rolleyes:
Is that how it works on this site? Being promoted to moderator means you have more connections? I don't care if it's a new member or a veteran or a mod, I go by the source, the evidence, etc. I make my own judgments.

The mods are humans just like us. They started out just like us. Sure, some of them might just happen to have legit sources, just like some of us regular members might happen to have legit sources. But they're human, they can be fooled just like we can. In terms of daily Smashboards life, sure they are a bit higher up, but in the sense of leaks they're on the same level as everyone else.
 

roosaurus

Smash Apprentice
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Messages
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Here are some reasons why I think this leak is fake:
http://i.imgur.com/LSpdAVr.gif

http://aceattorney.sparklin.org/jeu.php?id_proces=65562

http://i.imgur.com/aoYlUTC.png

Doctor Mario’s Model source: http://th01.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/f/2013/037/c/6/dr_mario_model_rip_by_luigimariogmod-d5u3cp2.png

http://i.imgur.com/7epqFJU.jpg
It shows levels in the duck hunt, Diddy, and ness picture even though they're colored as if controlled by human players. In the bowser jr. Picture it shows levels of other players but grayed out to signify that they're CPU controlled.

https://31.media.tumblr.com/a59f58b511914082de3c0931d570f0c0/tumblr_nakwn41M2z1qiz4ulo1_500.png
There is no symbols behind the characters.

And why should a ESRB rater know about future DLC and it makes it even less convincing when his name is "MOTHER****ING LEAKER"
Everything you've said has been discussed. Half of it is actually evidence now for the leak
 

Repiteo

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I'm not sure what you're trying to say? I support the mods sayings over most newbies. I wasn't arguing anything. Are you even reading what I'm saying? xD
I was more referring to how you weren't giving any middle ground between mod and newbie, and pointing out that there are people with reputations that rival mods that should not be dismissed in the same manner that newbies are.
 

4cast

Smash Ace
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Here are some reasons why I think this leak is fake:
http://i.imgur.com/LSpdAVr.gif

http://aceattorney.sparklin.org/jeu.php?id_proces=65562

http://i.imgur.com/aoYlUTC.png

Doctor Mario’s Model source: http://th01.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/f/2013/037/c/6/dr_mario_model_rip_by_luigimariogmod-d5u3cp2.png

http://i.imgur.com/7epqFJU.jpg
It shows levels in the duck hunt, Diddy, and ness picture even though they're colored as if controlled by human players. In the bowser jr. Picture it shows levels of other players but grayed out to signify that they're CPU controlled.

https://31.media.tumblr.com/a59f58b511914082de3c0931d570f0c0/tumblr_nakwn41M2z1qiz4ulo1_500.png
There is no symbols behind the characters.

And why should a ESRB rater know about future DLC and it makes it even less convincing when his name is "MOTHER****ING LEAKER"
We Have Discussed and Debunked Most of the things on here I mean The Line Thickness and Tomodachi Life Stage ACTUALLY HELP THE LEAK! There is no point explaining it honestly We have Discussed it Numerous Times
 

BindingBlade

Smash Lord
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Messages
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We Have Discussed and Debunked Most of the things on here I mean The Line Thickness and Tomodachi Life Stage ACTUALLY HELP THE LEAK! There is no point explaining it honestly We have Discussed it Numerous Times
The Dr. Mario model thing isn't even close.
 

Joalro

Smash Ace
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We Have Discussed and Debunked Most of the things on here I mean The Line Thickness and Tomodachi Life Stage ACTUALLY HELP THE LEAK! There is no point explaining it honestly We have Discussed it Numerous Times
I know I'm not a mod and so I have no authority on this issue, but can people please start ignoring people who post outdated information. I will personally point them to my post. Having 5 people all yell at the guy for posting old information just clutters these forums up, and for someone like me trying to follow everything, it makes it very difficult.

If you are will to allow me to not just be the documenter, but the guy in charge of pointing people to that information, it will really help to keep the conversations going. Just ignore it and move on.
 
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BindingBlade

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Messages
1,196
I know I'm not a mod and so I have no authority on this issue, but can people please start ignoring people who post outdated information. I will personally point them to my post. Having 5 people all yell at the guy for posting old information just clutters these forums up, and for someone like me trying to follow everything, it makes it very difficult.

If you are will to allow me to not just be the documenter, but the guy in charge of pointing people to that information, it will really help to keep the conversations going.
That's actually a good strategy, we still have people pointing out the lines from two days ago.
 

FiXalaS

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How would the leaker know when a character reveal occurred? He could have just as easily revealed it earlier not knowing he's be revealed soon if this leak was fake.
Where did I say the leaker knew? I just said he leaked his "leak" after MetaKnight's reveal, any new reveal will be far away now, and we can discuss his professional leak for ages

of course, I think it has a good chance to be real.
 

Joalro

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Here's more to add to the puzzle:

There's also this quote posted on the Ninka thread, which is sourced from a thread on deniableplausibility that's no longer reachable:



Is the person who wrote the above the same person who originally leaked the "Additional Characters" on 4chan?
Can someone please help me sort this out? I KNOW Neo Zero posted about Mach Rider, I got that information directly from him. Is that just his guess, or did he have any reason for suggesting him?
 

BindingBlade

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How is it that the buzz around this topic has dropped significantly and the viewers have been almost halved?
 

TheFearsomeRyan

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Messages
276
So uh. Nothing new since I went to bed?
I'm actually wondering the same. As far as I'm aware we haven't gotten much new info about the leaks though there's been examination of the in game pics with shulk and whether or not it's a brawl hack. (which I think it's fake personally)
 
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