So, I know I will probably restate a lot of points here, but I felt like waiting to think about kkr before giving my opinion on it.
Just to be clear, I really don;t think he's close to deconfirmation at all. To me (with stuff like varia suit), it seems that the hypothetical scenario of being playable does not have much problems. I still feel he has chances considerable enough.
But where it gets tricky is I still think this lowered his chances.
Because to me, there;s 2 possible scenario: they choose him because they checked the ballot, or they simply were aware already and chose him after.
I don;t believe there were any circumstances. kkr hasn't appeared in a game since years and I even think the last one was a sport spinoff so not even sure if it counts THAT much. To choose his classic design with how much forgotten he seemed to be lately, there;s just gotta be a reasons to have him recognised. No matter if playable or not, this is quite good recognition. So, this is why I think it could only be because they were somehow aware of how requested he was.
However, after thinking about it, both possibilities come to the same conclusion: there wasn;t much point to do him as a costume if he was playable in the first place.
If they checked the ballot, this means that they are starting to get what characters they could be working on, but tbh, it just feels weird, why not jsut wait at the end of the ballot? Anyway, if they intended to have him a possible candidate for playable, why do effort to do a costume? Because you could do the character and have the costume later, logically, I would think it could work like that because having a character allows to have an easy costume, but the costume before..... Well it does help if they want to make a character, but again, why even doing it? Tbh however, this is not the msot likely possibility, I feel the selection for costumes were made with requests they heard of before ballot.
Which leads me to the next possibility: in this case, same conclusion, if it could have been a candidate, why doing the costume now? This is one if not the msot wanted in the world, what's the point here? Because there's many reasons, btu msot of them are coming to the conclusion that he's less likely. Maybe they actually thought about it and realised that for some reasons, something was wrong? maybe they already decided he wouldn;t be in the game before ballot?
the other possibility is they could have done it for fan service, but then wait for the ballot results to do him as a character. This honestly could happen, but I now have the same question as above, why not just wait for the costume then? idk, but it just feels odd, the costume alone is more a secondary contents, but the costume with the character is more an add on content. I would actually understand if they put the costume after the ballot is complete because then it would be more meaningful, but now, i feel the costume just released too early than it should have if he was playable.
The last point I'm going to make not only i do feel these are before ballot requests ideas, but I also feel a sense of they intended them to not be palyable. Chrom and flying man crosses my mind, we know these 2 are intended to not be playable, same for the third party one, seeing kkr in this batch is something that makes me worried for his chances.
In conclusion, I still think there's hope, but less then before. This is highly subjective however, it;s hard to have facts here so I mostly used the "I feel" instead of using facts. It;s entirely dependent on how Sakurai intended the costumes to be and it is currently not known much. For ssb4, I feel there;s less chances, but for future games (that does not exist btw), I do feel this could be somethign that would help him.
There, I said I probably restated a lot of things, but this was my opinion on him