Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[GoldenYuiitusin]

And for Smash 4, I always thought Wii Fit was our surprise and Duck Hunt was our retro, but then some argue that Duck Hunt was the surprise and that Little Mac was the retro pick? And Wii Fit was just its own thing? It feels like revisionism because it’s just easier to draw a line between G&W / R.O.B. / Duck Hunt, since they are all classic characters and “old obscure hardware” reps, but anyone who was around for Wii Fit or Plant know that literally zero people were predicting them, while Duck Hunt was consistently suggested.

How is it revisionism when we know for a fact in Sakurai's design document for Smash 4 that Duck Hunt is listed as the "surprise character" (and is why we have that terminology in the first place)?

People that argued for Wii Fit Trainer being the "surprise character" were just flat out wrong. No revisionism.

 

[Ivander]

I don’t think there’s any world where Diddy Kong is considered lower priority than Ridley. Ridley doesn’t have his own theme park!

Yes he does. Don't you know of the famous theme park, Pirates of the Zebesian?

 

[Golden Icarus]

How is it revisionism when we know for a fact in Sakurai's design document for Smash 4 that Duck Hunt is listed as the "surprise character" (and is why we have that terminology in the first place)?

People that argued for Wii Fit Trainer being the "surprise character" were just flat out wrong. No revisionism.View attachment 397197

Well fair enough. I don’t think I remembered this statement. I mean if he was explicitly planned as the surprise, then I’ll take the L. I still find the qualifications for “retro” and especially the qualifications for “surprise” to be inconsistent and I don’t fully agree with the weight the community gives them.

Although I notice I often take the stance of “Sakurai’s statements aren’t that useful” and while we shouldn’t disregard them, I do think the community should relax on taking everything too literally when he’s so willing to flip his opinion on things.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

How is it revisionism when we know for a fact in Sakurai's design document for Smash 4 that Duck Hunt is listed as the "surprise character" (and is why we have that terminology in the first place)?

People that argued for Wii Fit Trainer being the "surprise character" were just flat out wrong. No revisionism.View attachment 397197

Yeah, Wii Fit Trainer was a surprise but when you take the time to think about it, she feels more like introducing a series which was not a thing by the time Brawl was developed, much like Shulk from Xenoblade Chronicles.

Was she out of nowhere based on our own speculation? Yes. But given the success of the Wii series as a whole, getting any kind of representative of it makes complete sense in hindsight and shouldn't have been surprising.

And given how people generally expect the Trainee due to Ring Fit Adventure's success, we're clearly intent on not making history repeat itself.

 

[StormC]

You know, I can see why characters that are retro picks would be surprise picks for Smash, I mean, being absent until 4, a character like Duck Hunt would not be expected to join a game like Smash Bros., which makes them more surprising, even if they are retro. I just don't think the retro thing could be ruled out that easily. I am aware of Sakurai's decision and all, and I admit the following is not going to be important because it is not really a good comparison, but Sakurai has made mistakes and has not been accurate to characters that much from different games. That said, while it is official Sakurai picked some retro characters as surprise picks, they are still retro. The surprise pick thing is more important, but Sakurai has had to deal with many characters from different game series as well, and not all of them were done justice, too. It ain't inaccurate to call them surprise picks based on Sakurai's word, and in fact, it can be very accurate, but I do think that because of dealing with many characters from different series, and his overall performance with characters at times, while that may not be a good comparison, a surprise pick can still be retro.

So I would not be surprise if Sakurai let the retro thing slip by him, even if intentionally.

But that is not going to be considered important. I was just saying my peace.

However, the real thing I want to say is...

I mentioned King K. Rool, and how likely he is to be cut before Diddy. One thing I brought up when talking about Geno from Mario RPG is that he and K. Rool have had fan demand on their side. They are different characters as someone else mentioned, but that comparison is not important. The important thing is K. Rool alone having fan demand only. Not actually including Geno here. The thing is, fan demand can only do so much to get a character to stay in Smash in my opinion. Unless K. Rool appears in a new game, fan demand can only do so much to prevent him from being cut, is it not?

I know we were not talking about fan demand in particular, but I just wanted to mention that, if that is okay.

There is no way to know for sure, but Sakurai knows cut characters become popular requests, especially when they’re previously popular like Mewtwo. If K. Rool did get cut that probably means we’re looking at a good chunk of fan favorites are being cut and we’re looking at a very different playing field. I am confident though K. Rool would be a likely DLC candidate if he got cut, but honestly I’m not that worried about him.

 

[CosmicEternity44]

About the article GoldenYuiitusin posted, what are the odds that was just mistranslation or whatever about what Sakurai said about Duck Hunt?

Don't get me wrong, I am not denying that they were a surprise character, for they are, but I was just curious because mistranslations happen all the time, and...

Wii Fit Trainer was pretty surprising. Not to mention, I am sure there can be more than one surprise character. There is always a chance that more than one character in a fighting game can come as a surprise, like Terry and Mai in Street Fighter 6, if that applies.

There is no way to know for sure, but Sakurai knows cut characters become popular requests, especially when they’re previously popular like Mewtwo. If K. Rool did get cut that probably means we’re looking at a good chunk of fan favorites are being cut and we’re looking at a very different playing field. I am confident though K. Rool would be a likely DLC candidate if he got cut, but honestly I’m not that worried about him.

I am not too worried, either. Anyway, thanks for the response. I mentioned that because I thought it would be nice to bring up that little detail here.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Anyway, let me ask you all something: Which character who you enjoyed playing as but may be cut next Smash Brothers game would you miss by a lot?

Probably Roy who is the Fire Emblem character that I play the most. Also has a unique gimmick where his sword is the opposite of Marth so he plays differently than most sword characters.

My prediction is that there will be a character that will be cut that will case backslash akin to Mewtwo when it happened in Brawl.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Well fair enough. I don’t think I remembered this statement. I mean if he was explicitly planned as the surprise, then I’ll take the L. I still find the qualifications for “retro” and especially the qualifications for “surprise” to be inconsistent and I don’t fully agree with the weight the community gives them.

Although I notice I often take the stance of “Sakurai’s statements aren’t that useful” and while we shouldn’t disregard them, I do think the community should relax on taking everything too literally when he’s so willing to flip his opinion on things.

The thing is, some people seem to be under the impression that a "surprise" character can't also be a "retro" pick when a surprise character just simply means it's a character that people don't usually expect. That kind of factor wears off after the character is revealed.

As for retro picks, they're characters that represent a past era that they come from. Usually a distant past era. Ice Climbers was added to Melee for that reason while Mr. Game & Watch was the surprise character for that same game. But let's be honest, with his design, moveset, stage, and even his name, there's no way anybody can say Mr. Game & Watch doesn't represent a past era. Everything about him is retro.

As I already said, the surprise factor wears off. But a character will still be retro, no matter what.

 

[SubspaceJigglypuff]

My prediction is that there will be a character that will be cut that will case backslash akin to Mewtwo when it happened in Brawl.

I think there'll be more than one.

As for retro picks, they're characters that represent a past era that they come from. Usually a distant past era. Ice Climbers was added to Melee for that reason while Mr. Game & Watch was the surprise character for that same game. But let's be honest, with his design, moveset, stage, and even his name, there's no way anybody can say Mr. Game & Watch doesn't represent a past era. Everything about him is retro.

Worth noting Sakurai literally highlighted Game & Watch's age in Pac-Man's trailer. If he didn't hold value in these character's retroness, then I don't think he would have done that.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

My prediction is that there will be a character that will be cut that will case backslash akin to Mewtwo when it happened in Brawl.

And its most likely gonna be Joker

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Worth noting Sakurai literally highlighted Game & Watch's age in Pac-Man's trailer. If he didn't hold value in these character's retroness, then I don't think he would have done that.

Literally no one is saying that they aren't "retro" or whatever.

What is being said is that there is a specific reason for these characters that does not have to do with being "retro" to which was what was specifically added for as a token NES/Famicom representative.
For , it was to surprise the player with a fighter that breaks typical expectations and isn't a typical hero/heroine.

Yes, would be another example of this....except she wasn't meant as a "surprise" like them. Instead she was added for the purpose of providing something new and interesting and disregarding whether the character is a combatant or not (to which was also why we got in spite of denying for Brawl). This is why she was an early reveal, not meant to be hidden to the public until release/revealed as a pre-order bonus after the "final new challengers" were all shown (since Ultimate kept no characters secret).

 

[Thegameandwatch]

And its most likely gonna be Joker

Could also be Cloud but I feel like he will be DLC if Nintendo don't negotiate in time. He is also the most played character online in the first few months.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Time to throw my hat into the ring when it comes to trying to categorize character likeliness because why not

Do note that outside of the "untouchable ten" which is clearly the highest of priorities, none of these are in order of priority (so the category right after the untouchables isn’t necessarily the next likeliest outside of them, for example) and I'm simply talking about stuff as I go.

Spoiler

FINAL NOTE

I first thought of making a "cutting room floor" category of everyone who ever got cut but I figured different games would have different priorities. After all, the idea of Marth and Bowser not making it back due to time constraints nowadays feels ridiculous but it's exactly what happened in Smash 64. Do I say they're at risk because they've been cut before or acknowledge their legacy is too big to make them budge out of the roster? I chose the latter.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Likelyhood tier list:

Spoiler

 

[Gengar84]

Likelyhood tier list:

Spoiler

I like the way you think.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

With that, my question is this: What would happen if CPU players in Smash Bros. were literally controlled by AI that was so smart?

There's no reason to do this, as the game won't benefit from an AI built off of machine learning any more than it'd benefit from the current AI we've got, with maybe the exception of copying Killer Instinct's mode where the AI tries to fight like you.

Well, it's about having a similar moveset and serving the same function.

For example, if I were making Capcom vs. Capcom, and wanted to make a replacement for MODOK, I might use, say, Dr. Wily in Wily Capsule 7. Floating around in a little hoverpod, shooting lots of energy projectiles.

Now obviously, Wily wasn't created for CvC. But if his moveset is similar, I can call him a replacement for MODOK.

Or if I wanted to make a replacement for Captain America, I might go with Protoman, or Trojan.

I might be missing the point, but you are creating a new fighter in these examples since Dr. Wily, Proto Man, and Trojan haven't been in a fighting game before. C. Viper on the other hand is using a fully formed moveset from a completely different game.

Also Wily and Proto Man would be terrible picks for MODOK and Captain America clones but that is definitely beside the point.

 

[CosmicEternity44]

There's no reason to do this, as the game won't benefit from an AI built off of machine learning any more than it'd benefit from the current AI we've got, with maybe the exception of copying Killer Instinct's mode where the AI tries to fight like you.

Thanks for the response. Still, I was only curious, which is why I asked about this. This was more of a what if scenario, if anything.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I might be missing the point, but you are creating a new fighter in these examples since Dr. Wily, Proto Man, and Trojan haven't been in a fighting game before. C. Viper on the other hand is using a fully formed moveset from a completely different game.

Fair point.

Also Wily and Proto Man would be terrible picks for MODOK and Captain America clones but that is definitely beside the point.

Protoman is a bit of a stretch, but Wily would be a perfect MODOK.

Likelyhood tier list:

Spoiler

 

[SnakeFighter64]

How would you feel if this was the next Smash roster

Spoiler

Spoiler: Notes

 

[Wunderwaft]

A bit late but on the topic of Icies....

Yeah if there's extensive cuts happening I will be questioning the logic of the director keeping them while other characters that are popular get the boot. Let me explain a bit, in terms of a "duo fighter" mechanic, we already kind of have that mechanic represented with Rosalina, sure it's not a 1:1 to how the Icies treat the concept but the concept remains. If the Icies are cut then there will still be a character to represent that archetype, and this is just my opinion speaking but honestly Rosalina and Luma executed the duo fighter mechanic way better than the Icies have ever done, just look at the three times we had Icies playable in Smash.

In Melee and Brawl they were given their tools and were massively obnoxious to fight, they were an overtuned and broken character that wasn't fun to fight against with their death grabs. Now let's look at how they're implemented in Ultimate after they were properly toned down and balanced, practically no one plays this character except for a couple of few loyal fans. This isn't a diss on the people who like the character and play them, but without the broken OP **** the character previously had the play rate became low compared to the rest of the cast.

People have already talked about how the Icies are completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things what with them having one forgotten game from the days of the NES and is only popular because of Smash, but we have to look at the gameplay point of view as well. Adding this character back brings baggage with the dev team, if they give them a slight inch with buffing them to not be bad then that brings the risk of completely breaking the game like previous installments, but if they keep them toned down and neutered then this character becomes unplayable and is ignored by the majority of the player base. It makes me question the reasoning for bringing back this character with all this in mind and how tight the cuts could be in the next game.

 

[Noipoi]

How would you feel if this was the next Smash roster

Spoiler

Spoiler: Notes

-That’s way too many Kanto Pokemon we gotta get rid of a few of those. The Pokemon representation is pretty unbalanced here.
-Where the **** is Robin? Where the **** is Ike? We like Ike!
-This is a nitpick but Geno being right next to Wario makes it look like he’s a Wario character which makes me uncomfortable.
-I dunno who the **** told you Captain N could hang but they told you wrong. Bro is not part of the team.

Aside from that it’s a standard Smashboards user roster.

 

[SnakeFighter64]

-That’s way too many Kanto Pokemon we gotta get rid of a few of those. The Pokemon representation is pretty unbalanced here.
-Where the ** is Robin? Where the ** is Ike? We like Ike!
-This is a nitpick but Geno being right next to Wario makes it look like he’s a Wario character which makes me uncomfortable.
-I dunno who the **** told you Captain N could hang but they told you wrong. Bro is not part of the team.

Aside from that it’s a standard Smashboards user roster.

I told me captain n could hang.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

How would you feel if this was the next Smash roster

Spoiler

Spoiler: Notes

I'm only gonna say a few things on this, but:

• Removing Pyra and Mythra is certainly a choice when XB2 is the best selling game in the series, and XB4 Protag is hilarious to me because the gap between 2 and 3 was like 5 years and it's only been 2 years since XB3, so we're probably not seeing 4 until like midway through the Switch 2's life
• Eevee and Gengar. I would genuinely rather remove Eevee to keep Puff and turn that Gengar stuck in DLC2 for some reason into veteran DLC for Incineroar.
• I don't know if you intended it to be read that way or not, but the whole "replacing Sheik with Impa" thing gets on my nerves so I hate that lol
• Space Invaders????

 

[cashregister9]

How would you feel if this was the next Smash roster

Spoiler

Spoiler: Notes

The cuts feel weird, especially with the addition of "Gen 10 Pokemon" and "Next Fire Emblem Protag" slots, those always feel incredibly cynical, even more so after cuts.

Other than those gripes, and other gripes like Echoes that should be unique, the rest feels standard, not necessarily bad, just generic.

Not a fan of the addition of Captain N, but I appreciate the audacity.

 

[CardiganBoy]

A bit late but on the topic of Icies....

Yeah if there's extensive cuts happening I will be questioning the logic of the director keeping them while other characters that are popular get the boot. Let me explain a bit, in terms of a "duo fighter" mechanic, we already kind of have that mechanic represented with Rosalina, sure it's not a 1:1 to how the Icies treat the concept but the concept remains. If the Icies are cut then there will still be a character to represent that archetype, and this is just my opinion speaking but honestly Rosalina and Luma executed the duo fighter mechanic way better than the Icies have ever done, just look at the three times we had Icies playable in Smash.

In Melee and Brawl they were given their tools and were massively obnoxious to fight, they were an overtuned and broken character that wasn't fun to fight against with their death grabs. Now let's look at how they're implemented in Ultimate after they were properly toned down and balanced, practically no one plays this character except for a couple of few loyal fans. This isn't a diss on the people who like the character and play them, but without the broken OP **** the character previously had the play rate became low compared to the rest of the cast.

People have already talked about how the Icies are completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things what with them having one forgotten game from the days of the NES and is only popular because of Smash, but we have to look at the gameplay point of view as well. Adding this character back brings baggage with the dev team, if they give them a slight inch with buffing them to not be bad then that brings the risk of completely breaking the game like previous installments, but if they keep them toned down and neutered then this character becomes unplayable and is ignored by the majority of the player base. It makes me question the reasoning for bringing back this character with all this in mind and how tight the cuts could be in the next game.

Personallly I find Rosalina & Luma's puppet mechanics more fun to play and figure out than Ice Climbers' mechanic of having your attacks duplicated, it is simple and a product of them being the first of their kind, but in a way both are different faces of the dual fighter archetype.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Not a fan of the addition of Captain N, but I appreciate the audacity.

There should be a "Gamemaster" Mii Gunner costume that looks like Captain N.

 

[Idon]

People talking about existing characters only being cut previously due to some factor that has since been remedied at a later game entry and won't be cut this time are not acknowledging that they (probably) are gonna be cut for brand spanking new reasons.

Someone's going to be on the chopping block and it's not just going to be young link and pichu I'll guarantee that. Try not to believe all your favs are safe, it'll be tough to see those expectations shattered.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

People talking about existing characters only being cut previously due to some factor that has since been remedied at a later game entry and won't be cut this time are not acknowledging that they (probably) are gonna be cut for brand spanking new reasons.

Someone's going to be on the chopping block and it's not just going to be young link and pichu I'll guarantee that. Try not to believe all your favs are safe, it'll be tough to see those expectations shattered.

Yeah, categorizing characters last night made me realize why cuts are likely going to feel hard; without factors like public reception, it's VERY hard to think about who would get cut because every addition, even the ones people brand as "promotional picks", are generally bangers with few exceptions.

Yeah, there are things like how it's generally agreed we won't see all three Links, but we also had things like Bowser not making it in 64 or Mewtwo cut in Brawl for time constraints. Cuts will hurt because they already have. Only a select amount of characters are safe and chances are it's less than people think.

 

[Folezicle Lives!]

Yes he does. Don't you know of the famous theme park, Pirates of the Zebesian?

I think Ridley would just become the most requested again. I think Ridley lost popularity due to them not being a top tier chatacter and heavy. But my god they were the most popular request by far before Ultimate.

I mean things do change?

How would you feel if this was the next Smash roster

Spoiler

Spoiler: Notes

I spot a Tingle ahhhhh

 

[Amornal1]

Their Mii costumes came out just months apart from each other and the violence didn't stop characters like Bayonetta from getting in Smash, so that's irrelevant. Also, DOOM's legacy in video games, as being the pioneer of the FPS genre and other things plays a major factor in Doom Slayer's chances for being in Smash. Elder Scrolls is not going to change that.

I find it strange how you didn't mention Elder Scrolls in your initial post but it's not until I brought up DOOM was when all of a sudden you decided mention it.

I Dont wants to discuss about this anymore, okay?

 

[Folezicle Lives!]

I want to maul someone's face and rip DKs eyes out with Niko... First DLC exclusive character? Imagine that for an entrance

 

[Gengar84]

What do you think of the potential of comparatively smaller series that still have some connection to Nintendo like Disgaea, Battletoads, Contra, River City, Chrono, and Octopath Traveller getting a character in Smash? I think we sometimes focus a bit too much on sales of a series when determining the possibility of seeing a franchise get a character in Smash. While there are several more mainstream options than these, I think each offers a lot and they could all bring something unique in a fighter. I think it makes things more fun when we can see a mix of both mainstream and smaller titles get representation.

 

[BuckleyTim]

My oddball prediction is that if Skull Kid is in the next smash, then young link might tag along too. Would be a tad weird to not have them interact in at least a reveal trailer, you know?

 

[PersonAngelo53]

My oddball prediction is that if Skull Kid is in the next smash, then young link might tag along too. Would be a tad weird to not have them interact in at least a reveal trailer, you know?

As long as Young link gets a Fierce diety link final smash too I be happy.

 

[Gengar84]

My hope is that Link has a closer design to his OoT appearance in the next Smash. The blue shirt from BotW and TotK was a nice change for those particular games but they don’t really feel like Link to me. If we’re sticking with the theme of each character using an appearance from a different game, I’d go OoT Link, TP Zelda, TotK Ganondorf, WW Toon Link and SS Impa. Sheik can use a unique Smash design if they keep her but keep it relatively close to what she’s been before. Based on that, I suppose I’d go with Skull Kid over Midna for a second newcomer since he represents a different game not already covered. Ideally, they’d all have alts of all their appearances, but if I had to pick just one, that’s what I’d go with.

 

[Laniv]

A bit late but on the topic of Icies....

Yeah if there's extensive cuts happening I will be questioning the logic of the director keeping them while other characters that are popular get the boot. Let me explain a bit, in terms of a "duo fighter" mechanic, we already kind of have that mechanic represented with Rosalina, sure it's not a 1:1 to how the Icies treat the concept but the concept remains. If the Icies are cut then there will still be a character to represent that archetype, and this is just my opinion speaking but honestly Rosalina and Luma executed the duo fighter mechanic way better than the Icies have ever done, just look at the three times we had Icies playable in Smash.

In Melee and Brawl they were given their tools and were massively obnoxious to fight, they were an overtuned and broken character that wasn't fun to fight against with their death grabs. Now let's look at how they're implemented in Ultimate after they were properly toned down and balanced, practically no one plays this character except for a couple of few loyal fans. This isn't a diss on the people who like the character and play them, but without the broken OP **** the character previously had the play rate became low compared to the rest of the cast.

People have already talked about how the Icies are completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things what with them having one forgotten game from the days of the NES and is only popular because of Smash, but we have to look at the gameplay point of view as well. Adding this character back brings baggage with the dev team, if they give them a slight inch with buffing them to not be bad then that brings the risk of completely breaking the game like previous installments, but if they keep them toned down and neutered then this character becomes unplayable and is ignored by the majority of the player base. It makes me question the reasoning for bringing back this character with all this in mind and how tight the cuts could be in the next game.

Yeah but they're not the same thing. It's like saying Mega Man is the same thing as Samus because they both have arm cannons.

And the only really overpowered thing they had in Melee and Brawl was grab shenanigans (she-Nana-gans? Anyone?), and that got removed in Smash 4. All we need to do is buff up their raw damage output and they should be fine. Not broken, but still fine.

And I will simply repost this that I said in the Unpopular Smash Opinions thread:

I still say the Ice Climbers have inherent value by dint of being randos that no one would pick otherwise. They can't all be famous retros or the new hotness. And I feel that picking a retro or shock character that's less famous than the one you're thinking of is kinda the point of a shock character.

And if I'm being honest, if Smash Bros didn't choose characters from bad games, we'd have a smaller, less flavorful roster. Ain't nobody doing it like Ice Climbers.

(No, Rosalina doesn't count. That's a similar but separate archetype.)

 

[Gengar84]

Speaking of Ice Climbers and Rosalina, I’d love to see a beast tamer style character that worked in a similar way to either of them fighting both physically themselves and with an animal companion. Here’s a few options that I feel could work for that gimmick:

H’aanit and Linde (Octopath Traveller)
Clive and Torgal (Fantasy XVI)
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade 2)
Yuri and Repede (Tales of Vesperia)

I think that could make for a really cool and unique Smash character either way a similar concept as what we’ve had but in a new way.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

My hope is that Link has a closer design to his OoT appearance in the next Smash. The blue shirt from BotW and TotK was a nice change for those particular games but they don’t really feel like Link to me. If we’re sticking with the theme of each character using an appearance from a different game, I’d go OoT Link, TP Zelda, TotK Ganondorf, WW Toon Link and SS Impa. Sheik can use a unique Smash design if they keep her but keep it relatively close to what she’s been before. Based on that, I suppose I’d go with Skull Kid over Midna for a second newcomer since he represents a different game not already covered. Ideally, they’d all have alts of all their appearances, but if I had to pick just one, that’s what I’d go with.

Honestly they should just do both and have them as alts.

Maybe put the Twilight Princess Link as an alt as well for those that like that asthetic.

 

[Garteam]

Wii Fit Trainer is a "Surprise!"/WTF character. That doesn't even need a Sakurai interview. No one saw this character coming prior to her reveal at E3 2013 and that was a lot of the joke. Even people back in the day were joking that, for as much time as people put into speculation, Sakurai managed to get the one character that no one had thought of or suggested.

Smash for Wii U/3DS just had two "Surprise!" characters between WFT and Duck Hunt.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Wii Fit Trainer is a "Surprise!"/WTF character. That doesn't even need a Sakurai interview. No one saw this character coming prior to her reveal at E3 2013 and that was a lot of the joke. Even people back in the day were joking that, for as much time as people put into speculation, Sakurai managed to get the one character that no one had thought of or suggested.

Smash for Wii U/3DS just had two "Surprise!" characters between WFT and Duck Hunt.

About the WFT Sakurai himself said that "nobody could see this character coming", which is pretty much the definition of a surprise.

It's probably more a matter of presentation/marketing.
WFT was announced along with the game, while Duck Hunt was kept secret until way after the game's launch. That might be why one got referred to as the surprise character while the other didn't.
IMHO they wanted to use the Wii Fit Trainer to get the Wii casual users into Smash, thus the super early reveal, while Duck Hunt was more like ROB, a surprise for hardcore/nostalgic Nintendo fans.