Mmm... well when the amiibo was formally revealed, last September, it means that those discussions had began long enough beforehand that by September they already had the prototype. I think that would align with being acquired concurrently for the sequel only if that started... several months earlier in 2023. Which begs the question as to how early they 1) decided the roster/actually began development and 2) started approaching third-parties for licensing.
I'm somewhat skeptical that timeframe is accurate, especially over the idea that they would've always intended to make him an amiibo just like every other fighter, and it just took a while due to Square/Disney and the fact that Smash amiibos releasing in a timely fashion hasn't been Nintendo's priority in a very long time. I mean Pyra/Mythra only released last summer, over two years after being added.
I also question, and doubt, that Sora will be base. I do think he will return, but I think ownership-wise, DLC seems likelier. So whether he would've been acquired so far in advance, seemingly among the earliest (were it to line up with the amiibo)... that also feels questionable.
Well what I'm saying isn't there's not reason to cut any of the guest characters, it's that it probably won't be due to the third-party company not be willing to participate. Precluding hypotheticals like a Sony buyout, I don't see any reason to expect any of them to opt out.
I believe the ball is in Nintendo's court. I believe if Nintendo's priority is to bring all the third-parties back, they'll be able to. I just don't think it's going to come to pass that all the third-parties will be prioritized high enough. I think the reason some will get cut is simply a question of time and resources.
This is assuming we don't just keep building from Ultimate. I don't think we will. But even if they reuse that base, I still think a bunch of the third-parties wouldn't return until DLC, partly because the profit breakdown is preferential to them that way and trying some base EiH with triple the third-parties of 4, including Disney, Microsoft and even more Square is just... not realistic.
And past third-party preference, it's also asking Sakurai to renegotiate 18 third-parties and however many new ones concurrently for base. So probably over 20, more or less at the same time. I mean all he had to do for Ultimate's base was bring back the existing 6, go to Konami, and add a Ryu clone. And that almost didn't come together. This would be over double that, all while still helming the rest of base development, and without even considering the budget. If all the third-parties do return (which feels very idealistic), it seems much likelier a handful don't return until DLC.
And fwiw it's more than 10 external companies. Oftentimes those listed in the copyright aren't the extent of those who participate in negotiation, like how Armor Project and Bird Studio are involved with DQ or how Rare was involved in Banjo's negotiations despite Microsoft being the sole legal owner of the IP. Companies often include the specific devs in negotiations like this out of deference to their actual creators. Sega does this with Platinum and Bayonetta, given Kamiya was the one to keep Bayo out of PxZ2.
I think what's changed in a very significant way since the transition from Smash 4 to Ultimate has been Smash's position in general. The series was always beloved and has always sold very well, but Ultimate transformed it into the proper juggernaut it is today.
I think going from Smash 4 to Ultimate, most of the returning 3rd party characters were helping Smash out (the big big ones like Sonic, Snake, Cloud and Ryu in particular), especially in that peculiar moment where Nintendo's latest home console absolutely failed and the future popularity of Switch was uncertain at best. I mean it's not like they had something to lose, but they had most of the bargaining power.
Nowadays it's more mutual of a relationship. Ultimate sold like crazy and every time a character joins the fray it brings a ton of excitement and attention in a way that's unprecedent for something like this (how many fighting games could have opened the Game Awards with the announcement of a single DLC character and bring out the absolute madness Sephiroth did?).
And it's not just the super mainstream stuff, I believe Smash did a lot to boost Persona's popularity and to cementify stuff like Castlevania, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie or Fatal Fury/KOF's standing in the gaming sphere (not that any of these series was ever unpopular, but they're more... let's say in hardcore gamer territory, compared to stuff like Sonic, Tekken or Final Fantasy - with the obvious disclaimer about DQ not being omega mainstream in the West only).
Maybe Square could scoff at Cloud and Sephiroth not being sold individually, but I'm sure they'd like for Dragon Quest to have continued exposure in the West through one of the most ridicolous (in a good way!) characters in Smash, and to introduce some other IP of theirs to a ton of new people via DLC, instead of selling the old characters again. Then again, they might also opt for short-term profit, so everything is up in the air.
But yeah, to put it short, I feel like Nintendo and Sakurai have a ton more bargaining power than last time around. We've seen it with Ultimate's post-game stuff, everyone actively wants to be a part of Smash now. No more Sega deciding to lend Sonic at the last minute and no more Sakurai twisting some arms.
In fact, they had to relegate stuff like Devil May Cry, Doom, Bomberman, Skyrim and Assassin's Creed to non-playable roles. That alone kinda says a lot about the reach they have imo.
However in order to keep everyone they'd have to talk to a ton of people, to pay for a lot of licences which Nintendo themselves might not want to do, to ensure the game will be profitable for themselves even with such a big amount of stakeholders involved... and of course every company needs to be on board. These are the biggest obstacles (outside of development itself), there's a ton of stuff that could go wrong, and rationally I know it's more unlikely than not... but not
that unlikely either.
Discussions about the portrayal of the characters themselves shouldn't take that long I think? How much can they change from Ultimate?
In my opinion it mostly depends on what Nintendo wants to do, and if it's profitable to bring them all back.
