Which 3 sega reps are the most likely for the next smash bros.
Arle - If Sega wants to add a new series, there is simply no better option. We don't get the scope of how big Puyo is over here, but it has
impressive, persistent brand awareness in Japan that
trumps that of Sonic. Puyo II was a phenomenon at Japanese arcades that rivaled the popularity of Street Fighter II and further popularized puzzle games with a competitive edge - a trend that Capcom would later chase with Puzzle Fighter and Nintendo with Panel de Pon, just to name a couple. It was so big even, that it
nearly had an amusement park. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 just hit
3 million units sold worldwide, so the series is still doing quite well and has made strides in its western presence. I think the unorthodox nature of puzzle games in Smash has made Arle's case more dubious, but otherwise it's hard to find a character more qualified. Foundational for her genre, persistently relevant, carries a strong Nintendo history along with her, one of the most significant and successful Japanese IPs without a presence in the game.
Second Sonic Character - This is the number one obstacle for Arle though, but I don't
really think it's an obstacle. Sega plays ball consistently and probably wouldn't mind lending both. In any case, I'll just talk about which character I think has the best chance of this bunch, and for my money it's probably Tails. Smash has a bit of a preference for prioritizing sidekicks and co-protagonists over villains when applicable, as evidenced by Luigi, Zelda, Diddy Kong and so forth. Tails, alongside Knuckles and Shadow, has been requested modestly for 15 years now and in my opinion, probably offers the most clear unique potential of the three. I'm a Knuckles guy myself, but helicopter tails are certainly a distinct trait that few other characters can provide. If the Smash team wants to add someone new from Sonic and is looking for a unique X-factor, that would be it. As for Eggman, I just don't see it happening... sorry.
Axel Stone - This is sort of the shot in the dark random pick, amplified by the upcoming Streets of Rage revival. And a movie, apparently? But Axel would be another suitable classic Sega arcade character, maybe not the biggest or most iconic but with a strong legacy in his own right and hailing from a genre that is notably absent from Smash's fold. If I had to choose a beat-em-up series to represent in Smash, SOR might be my favorite choice with its style and its banging soundtrack. I think the main "competition" lies within those first two options but Bayonetta and Joker don't exactly fall in line with how you'd expect either.